51
|
Correction: Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Inj Prev 2020; 26:i164. [PMID: 32989004 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043296corr1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
|
52
|
|
53
|
Deshpande A, Miller-Petrie MK, Lindstedt PA, Baumann MM, Johnson KB, Blacker BF, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abejie AN, Abreu LG, Abrigo MR, Abualhasan A, Accrombessi MMK, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhikari TB, Afarideh M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Ahmed AE, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam S, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright J, Albujeer A, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alebel A, Alemu ZA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amit AML, Amul GGH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansariadi A, Antonio CAT, Antony B, Antriyandarti E, Arabloo J, Aref HMA, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asmelash D, Atalay HT, Athari SM, Athari SS, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Awasthi S, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azman AS, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barboza MA, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bay VD, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beheshti M, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Brown A, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chalise B, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Cromwell EA, Dadi AFF, Dahiru T, Dahlawi SMA, Dandona R, Dandona L, Dang AK, Daoud F, Darwesh AM, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dash AP, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, De la Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Demissie DB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Dipeolu IO, Do HT, Dolecek C, Doyle KE, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Edinur HA, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Nahas N, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elhabashy HR, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Endalew DA, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Etemadi A, Ezekannagha O, Faraon EJA, Fareed M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fasil AF, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fekadu W, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Frostad JJ, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Garcia GM, Gatotoh AM, Gayesa RT, Gebremedhin KB, Geramo YCD, Gesesew HA, Gezae KE, Ghashghaee A, Ghazi Sherbaf F, Gill TK, Gill PS, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Gizaw Z, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goulart BNG, Goulart AC, Grada A, Green MS, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Ha GH, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile DH, Haile MT, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Haririan H, Hariyani N, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hayelom DH, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hidru HDD, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich GI, Hoogar P, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hu G, Humayun A, Hussain SA, Hussen MAA, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ivers RQ, Iwu CJ, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kasaye HK, Kassa GG, Kassa GM, Kayode GA, Kebede MM, Keiyoro PN, Ketema DB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khater AM, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei M, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri A, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Kolola T, Komaki H, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Kumar P, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal A, Lal DK, Lam H, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lasrado S, Lebedev G, Lee PH, LeGrand KE, Leili M, Lenjebo TL, Leshargie CT, Levine AJ, Lewycka S, Li S, Linn S, Liu S, Lopez JCF, Lopukhov PD, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahadeshwara Prasad D, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, Meharie BG, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehta KM, Mekonnen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles GG, Meles HG, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Metekiya WM, Metekiya WM, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad Y, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed S, Mohammed JA, Mohammed H, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Moodley Y, Moradi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moraga P, Morales L, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffor M, Munro SB, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naik G, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Netsere HB, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen QP, Nigatu SG, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Park EK, Patel SK, Pathak A, Patle A, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pescarini JM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pirsaheb M, Poljak M, Pollock I, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Prada SI, Preotescu L, Quintana H, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi S, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rajati F, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rasella D, Rath GK, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawasia WF, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AM, Resnikoff S, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Saad AM, Sabour S, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Saleem A, Salem H, Salem MR, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Saraswathy SYI, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sayyah M, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shetty BSK, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Silva DAS, Singh V, Singh NP, Singh BBS, Singh JA, Singh A, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Skiadaresi E, Smith DL, Soares Filho AM, Sobhiyeh MR, Sokhan A, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadesse DB, Tarigan IU, Taye B, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, ThekkePurakkal AS, Thomas N, Thompson RL, Thomson AJ, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vollmer S, W/hawariat FG, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Wang Y, Wangdi K, Weiss DJ, Weldesamuel GT, Werkneh AA, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Worku GT, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yaseri M, Yatsuya H, Yeshaneh A, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousof HASA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zadey S, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zar HJ, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Zuniga YMH, Hay SI, Reiner RC. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e1162-e1185. [PMID: 32827479 PMCID: PMC7443708 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30278-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 06/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. METHODS We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. FINDINGS Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. INTERPRETATION Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
54
|
Abstract
This study is focused towards developing a global consensus sequence of nonstructural protein 2 (NSP2), a protease of Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) and predict immunogenic promiscuous T-cell epitopes based on various bioinformatics tools. To date, no epitope data is available for the Chikungunya virus in the IEDB database. In this study, 100 available nucleotide sequences of NSP2-CHIKV belonging to different strains were downloaded from the National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) database. The nucleotide sequences were subjected to translated sequencing using the EXPASY tool followed by protein alignment using the CLC workbench and a global consensus sequence for the respective protein was developed. IEDB tool was used to predict HLA-I and HLA-II binding promiscuous epitopes from the consensus sequence of NSP2-CHIKV. Thirty-four B-cell based epitopes are predicted and the promiscuous epitope is VVDTTGSTKPDPGD at position 341-354. Twenty-six MHC-I short peptide epitopes are predicted to bind with HLA-A. The promiscuous epitopes predicted to bind with HLA-A*01:01 are VTAIVSSLHY, SLSESATMVY, FSKPLVYY, QPTDHVVGEY at positions 317-326, 84-93, 535-544 and 15-24 with percentile ranks 0.17, 0.39, 0.51 and 0.81, respectively. Twenty-four MHC-II short peptide epitopes are predicted for HLA-DRB. The promiscuous epitope predicted to bind with HLA-DRB*01:01 is VVGEYLVLSPQTVLRS from 20-35 with a lowest percentile rank of 0.01. These predicted epitopes can be effective targets towards development of vaccine against CHIKV. Epitopes predicted in this study displayed good binding affinity, antigenicity and promiscuity for the HLA classes. These predicted epitopes can prove to be translationally important towards the development of CHIKV.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- F Fazal
- Department of Biosciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - T Anwar
- Department of Biosciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Y Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - F Parvaiz
- Department of Biosciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
55
|
Abstract
BACKGROUND Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. METHODS We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. FINDINGS While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. INTERPRETATION To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
56
|
LBD Double Burden of Malnutrition Collaborators. Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Nat Med 2020; 26:1308. [PMID: 32616917 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0972-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
|
57
|
|
58
|
Reiner RC, Wiens KE, Deshpande A, Baumann MM, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Troeger CE, Earl L, Munro SB, Abate D, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe G, Abegaz KH, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Afarideh M, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmed AE, Ahmed MB, Ahmed R, Ajumobi O, Akal CG, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright JR, Alcalde Rabanal JE, Alemnew BT, Alemu ZA, Ali BA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amare AT, Amini S, Amit AML, Andrei CL, Anegago MT, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Armoon B, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Lari M, Ashagre AF, Atalay HT, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Ayele AA, Aynalem YAA, Azari S, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Bali AG, Banach M, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Bayati M, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele YA, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Berbada DA, Beyranvand T, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biswas RK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko NI, Briko AN, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castro F, Chansa C, Chatterjee P, Chattu VK, Chauhan BG, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Claro RM, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Damiani G, Daoud F, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dasa TT, Davila CA, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De Neve JW, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dessie GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Ding EL, Diro HD, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Dolecek C, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duko Adema B, Dunachie SJ, Durães AR, Duraisamy S, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elemineh DA, El-Jaafary SI, Elkout H, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Endalamfaw A, Endalew DA, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Etemadi A, Farag TH, Faraon EJA, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Farioli A, Faro A, Farzam H, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Franklin RC, Frostad JJ, Fukumoto T, Gayesa RT, Gebremariam KT, Gebremedhin KBB, Gebremeskel GG, Gedefaw GA, Geramo YCD, Geta B, Gezae KE, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Goli S, Gomes NGM, Gopalani SV, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimares RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile MT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Handiso DW, Haririan H, Hariyani N, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanzadeh A, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Hayelom DH, Heidari B, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hidru HDD, Hoang CL, Hoogar P, Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hu G, Humayun A, Hussain SA, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Iwu CJ, Jaca A, Jafari Balalami N, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jia P, Johnson KB, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kahsay A, Kalani H, Kanchan T, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keiyoro PN, Ketema DB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalil AT, Khalil I, Khalilov R, Khan MN, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan J, Khatab K, Khater A, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei M, Khazaei S, Khodamoradi E, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kissoon N, Kondlahalli SKMKMM, Kosek MN, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal A, Lal DK, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lasrado S, Lee PH, Leili M, Lenjebo TTLL, Levine AJ, Lewycka S, Li S, Linn S, Lodha R, Longbottom J, Lopukhov PD, Magdeldin S, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Manafi F, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Marczak LB, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Masaka A, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mayala BK, McAlinden C, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Meles GG, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mena AT, Menezes RG, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Mihretie KMM, Miller-Petrie MK, Mills EJ, Mir SM, Mirabi P, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohamadi-Bolbanabad A, Mohammad KA, Mohammad Y, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Darwesh A, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed AS, Mohammed S, Mohammed JA, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moradi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Mosapour A, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffor MMM, Muluneh AG, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen QP, Nguyen TH, Nguyen CT, Nigatu D, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Noubiap JJ, Oh IH, Okpala O, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Pashaei T, Pati S, Patle A, Patton GC, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Pereira A, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Pigott DM, Piroozi B, Platts-Mills JA, Poljak M, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prada SI, Preotescu L, Quintana H, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rajati F, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rasella D, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Reta MA, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AI, Rickard J, Rios González CM, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roro EM, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Saad AM, Sabour S, Sadeghi E, Safari S, Safdarian M, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salehi F, Salehi Zahabi S, Salem MRR, Salem H, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Saraswathy SYI, Sarker AR, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Shabaninejad H, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shallo SA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharif M, Shey MS, Shibuya K, Shiferaw WSS, Shigematsu M, Shil A, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Si S, Siabani S, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Skiadaresi E, Smith DL, Sobhiyeh MR, Sokhan A, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Sykes BL, Tamirat KS, Tassew AA, Taveira N, Taye B, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Tlaye KG, Tlou B, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran KB, Trihandini I, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vollmer S, Vos T, Wada FW, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weldesamuel GT, Welgan CA, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CSS, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Wu AM, Xu G, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yaseri M, Yenesew MA, Yeshaneh A, Yilma MT, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousof HASA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zamani M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zandian H, Zeleke AJ, Zepro NB, Zewale TA, Zhang D, Zhang Y, Zhao XJ, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395:1779-1801. [PMID: 32513411 PMCID: PMC7314599 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30114-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2019] [Revised: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. METHODS We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. FINDINGS The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. INTERPRETATION By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
59
|
LBD Double Burden of Malnutrition Collaborators. Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Nat Med 2020; 26:750-9. [PMID: 32313249 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. Fine-scale geospatial mapping of overweight and wasting (two components of the double burden of malnutrition) in 105 LMICs shows that overweight has increased from 5.2% in 2000 to 6.0% in children under 5 in 2017. Although overall wasting decreased over the same period, most countries are not on track to meet the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025.
Collapse
|
60
|
GBD 2016 Occupational Carcinogens Collaborators. Global and regional burden of cancer in 2016 arising from occupational exposure to selected carcinogens: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Occup Environ Med 2020; 77:151-9. [PMID: 32054819 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2019-106012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2019] [Revised: 12/03/2019] [Accepted: 12/06/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study provides a detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of cancer due to occupational carcinogens from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. METHODS The burden of cancer due to 14 International Agency for Research on Cancer Group 1 occupational carcinogens was estimated using the population attributable fraction, based on past population exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. The results were used to calculate attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS There were an estimated 349 000 (95% Uncertainty Interval 269 000 to 427 000) deaths and 7.2 (5.8 to 8.6) million DALYs in 2016 due to exposure to the included occupational carcinogens-3.9% (3.2% to 4.6%) of all cancer deaths and 3.4% (2.7% to 4.0%) of all cancer DALYs; 79% of deaths were of males and 88% were of people aged 55 -79 years. Lung cancer accounted for 86% of the deaths, mesothelioma for 7.9% and laryngeal cancer for 2.1%. Asbestos was responsible for the largest number of deaths due to occupational carcinogens (63%); other important risk factors were secondhand smoke (14%), silica (14%) and diesel engine exhaust (5%). The highest mortality rates were in high-income regions, largely due to asbestos-related cancers, whereas in other regions cancer deaths from secondhand smoke, silica and diesel engine exhaust were more prominent. From 1990 to 2016, there was a decrease in the rate for deaths (-10%) and DALYs (-15%) due to exposure to occupational carcinogens. CONCLUSIONS Work-related carcinogens are responsible for considerable disease burden worldwide. The results provide guidance for prevention and control initiatives.
Collapse
|
61
|
GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors Collaborators. Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Occup Environ Med 2020; 77:133-41. [PMID: 32054817 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2019-106008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2019] [Revised: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 11/30/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. METHODS The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. RESULTS In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3-86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. CONCLUSIONS Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.
Collapse
|
62
|
GBD 2016 Occupational Chronic Respiratory Risk Factors Collaborators, GBD 2016 occupational chronic respiratory risk factors collaborators. Global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease in 2016 arising from non-infectious airborne occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Occup Environ Med 2020; 77:142-50. [PMID: 32054818 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2019-106013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2019] [Revised: 10/13/2019] [Accepted: 11/30/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This paper presents detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease arising from occupational airborne exposures, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. METHODS The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases and fumes, and secondhand smoke, and the burden of asthma resulting from occupational exposure to asthmagens, was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF), calculated using exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. PAFs were applied to the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for COPD and asthma. Pneumoconioses were estimated directly from cause of death data. Age-standardised rates were based only on persons aged 15 years and above. RESULTS The estimated PAFs (based on DALYs) were 17% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 14%-20%) for COPD and 10% (95% UI 9%-11%) for asthma. There were estimated to be 519 000 (95% UI 441,000-609,000) deaths from chronic respiratory disease in 2016 due to occupational airborne risk factors (COPD: 460,100 [95% UI 382,000-551,000]; asthma: 37,600 [95% UI 28,400-47,900]; pneumoconioses: 21,500 [95% UI 17,900-25,400]. The equivalent overall burden estimate was 13.6 million (95% UI 11.9-15.5 million); DALYs (COPD: 10.7 [95% UI 9.0-12.5] million; asthma: 2.3 [95% UI 1.9-2.9] million; pneumoconioses: 0.58 [95% UI 0.46-0.67] million). Rates were highest in males; older persons and mainly in Oceania, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa; and decreased from 1990 to 2016. CONCLUSIONS Workplace exposures resulting in COPD, asthma and pneumoconiosis continue to be important contributors to the burden of disease in all regions of the world. This should be reducible through improved prevention and control of relevant exposures.
Collapse
|
63
|
Sepanlou SG, Safiri S, Bisignano C, Ikuta KS, Merat S, Saberifiroozi M, Poustchi H, Tsoi D, Colombara DV, Abdoli A, Adedoyin RA, Afarideh M, Agrawal S, Ahmad S, Ahmadian E, Ahmadpour E, Akinyemiju T, Akunna CJ, Alipour V, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almulhim AM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Anber NH, Angus C, Anoushiravani A, Arabloo J, Araya EM, Asmelash D, Ataeinia B, Ataro Z, Atout MMW, Ausloos F, Awasthi A, Badawi A, Banach M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Biondi A, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Borzì AM, Butt ZA, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Carvalho F, Chu DT, Chung SC, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cowie BC, Daryani A, de Courten B, Demoz GT, Desai R, Dharmaratne SD, Djalalinia S, Do HT, Dorostkar F, Drake TM, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, Elsharkawy A, Etemadi A, Farahmand M, Farzadfar F, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Gebremedhin KBB, Geta B, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Gutirrez RA, Haile MT, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamid SS, Hasankhani M, Hasanzadeh A, Hashemian M, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari B, Henok A, Hoang CL, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsieh VCR, Igumbor EU, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jafari Balalami N, James SL, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kasaeian A, Kassaye HG, Kefale AT, Khalilov R, Khan MA, Khan EA, Khater A, Kim YJ, Koyanagi A, La Vecchia C, Lim LL, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mai HT, Manafi N, Manafi A, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mazzaglia G, Mehta D, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha MM, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mithra P, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Montero-Zamora PA, Moradi G, Naimzada MD, Nayak V, Negoi I, Nguyen TH, Ofori-Asenso R, Oh IH, Olagunju TO, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Pana A, Pathak M, Pourshams A, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana SMM, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Reiner RC, Roever L, Room R, Roshandel G, Safari S, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sartorius B, Schmidt MI, Senthilkumaran S, Shaikh MA, Sharif M, Sharifi A, Shigematsu M, Singh JA, Soheili A, Suleria HAR, Teklehaimanot BF, Tesfay BE, Vacante M, Vahedian-Azimi A, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wondafrash DZ, Wondmieneh AB, Yeshitila YG, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zarghi A, Zelber-Sagi S, Zewdie KA, Zhang ZJ, Zhao XJ, Naghavi M, Malekzadeh R. The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020; 5:245-266. [PMID: 31981519 PMCID: PMC7026710 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(19)30349-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 707] [Impact Index Per Article: 176.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2019] [Revised: 10/08/2019] [Accepted: 10/09/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. METHODS We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. FINDINGS In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. INTERPRETATION Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
64
|
Bikbov B, Purcell CA, Levey AS, Smith M, Abdoli A, Abebe M, Adebayo OM, Afarideh M, Agarwal SK, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmadian E, Al-Aly Z, Alipour V, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Andrei T, Andrei CL, Andualem Z, Anjomshoa M, Arabloo J, Ashagre AF, Asmelash D, Ataro Z, Atout MMW, Ayanore MA, Badawi A, Bakhtiari A, Ballew SH, Balouchi A, Banach M, Barquera S, Basu S, Bayih MT, Bedi N, Bello AK, Bensenor IM, Bijani A, Boloor A, Borzì AM, Cámera LA, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Chang AR, Chin KL, Chung SC, Cirillo M, Cousin E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Desta DM, Do HP, Duncan BB, Eftekhari A, Esteghamati A, Fatima SS, Fernandes JC, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Freitas M, Gad MM, Gebremeskel GG, Gebresillassie BM, Geta B, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghith N, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hariyani N, Hasan M, Hasankhani M, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Heidari B, Herteliu C, Hoang CL, Hosseini M, Hostiuc M, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Jafari Balalami N, James SL, Jassal SK, Jha V, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kassaye HG, Khader YS, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Kisa A, Kovesdy CP, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Larsson AO, Lim LL, Lopez AD, Lotufo PA, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, März W, Masaka A, Meheretu HAA, Miazgowski T, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Morales L, Moreno Velasquez I, Mousavi SM, Mukhopadhyay S, Nachega JB, Nadkarni GN, Nansseu JR, Natarajan G, Nazari J, Neal B, Negoi RI, Nguyen CT, Nikbakhsh R, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Olagunju AT, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, Palladino R, Pathak M, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Prasad N, Rafiei A, Raju SB, Ramezanzadeh K, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Reiner RC, Rezapour A, Ribeiro DC, Roever L, Rothenbacher D, Rwegerera GM, Saadatagah S, Safari S, Sahle BW, Salem H, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Sarveazad A, Sawhney M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharafi Z, Sharif M, Sharifi A, Silva DAS, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sisay MMM, Soheili A, Sutradhar I, Teklehaimanot BF, Tesfay BE, Teshome GF, Thakur JS, Tonelli M, Tran KB, Tran BX, Tran Ngoc C, Ullah I, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Vos T, Vu LG, Waheed Y, Werdecker A, Wolde HF, Wondmieneh AB, Wulf Hanson S, Yamada T, Yeshaw Y, Yonemoto N, Yusefzadeh H, Zaidi Z, Zaki L, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zarghi A, Zewdie KA, Ärnlöv J, Coresh J, Perico N, Remuzzi G, Murray CJL, Vos T. Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395:709-733. [PMID: 32061315 PMCID: PMC7049905 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30045-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2503] [Impact Index Per Article: 625.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2019] [Revised: 09/16/2019] [Accepted: 01/06/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. METHODS The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. FINDINGS Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. INTERPRETATION Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
65
|
GBD 2017 Lower Respiratory Infections Collaborators. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Infect Dis 2020; 20:60-79. [PMID: 31678026 DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30410-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2019] [Revised: 05/13/2019] [Accepted: 07/05/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. METHODS We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286-873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65·4% decrease, 61·5-68·5) and in mortality rate (from 362·7 deaths [330·1-392·0] per 100 000 children to 118·9 deaths [109·8-128·3] per 100 000 children; 67·2% decrease, 63·5-70·1). LRI incidence declined globally (32·4% decrease, 27·2-37·5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11·4% decrease, 0·0-24·5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6·3% decrease, 6·1-6·3), and reductions in household air pollution (8·4%, 6·8-9·2). INTERPRETATION Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
66
|
Abstract
Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
Collapse
|
67
|
Dar HA, Waheed Y, Najmi MH, Ismail S, Hetta HF, Ali A, Muhammad K. Multiepitope Subunit Vaccine Design against COVID-19 Based on the Spike Protein of SARS-CoV-2: An In Silico Analysis. J Immunol Res 2020; 2020:8893483. [PMID: 33274246 PMCID: PMC7678744 DOI: 10.1155/2020/8893483] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2020] [Revised: 10/16/2020] [Accepted: 11/02/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The global health crisis caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal agent of COVID-19, has resulted in a negative impact on human health and on social and economic activities worldwide. Researchers around the globe need to design and develop successful therapeutics as well as vaccines against the novel COVID-19 disease. In the present study, we conducted comprehensive computer-assisted analysis on the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 in order to design a safe and potent multiepitope vaccine. In silico epitope prioritization shortlisted six HLA I epitopes and six B-cell-derived HLA II epitopes. These high-ranked epitopes were all connected to each other via flexible GPGPG linkers, and at the N-terminus side, the sequence of Cholera Toxin β subunit was attached via an EAAAK linker. Structural modeling of the vaccine was performed, and molecular docking analysis strongly suggested a positive association of a multiepitope vaccine with Toll-like Receptor 3. The structural investigations of the vaccine-TLR3 complex revealed the formation of fifteen interchain hydrogen bonds, thus validating its integrity and stability. Moreover, it was found that this interaction was thermodynamically feasible. In conclusion, our data supports the proposition that a multiepitope vaccine will provide protective immunity against COVID-19. However, further in vivo and in vitro experiments are needed to validate the immunogenicity and safety of the candidate vaccine.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hamza Arshad Dar
- 1Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Yasir Waheed
- 1Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Muzammil Hasan Najmi
- 1Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Saba Ismail
- 1Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Helal F. Hetta
- 2Department of Internal Medicine, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, 231 Albert Sabin Way, Cincinnati, OH 45267-0595, USA
- 3Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt
| | - Amjad Ali
- 4Atta-ur-Rahman School of Applied Biosciences, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Khalid Muhammad
- 5Department of Biology, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
| |
Collapse
|
68
|
Troeger CE, Khalil IA, Blacker BF, Biehl MH, Albertson SB, Zimsen SRM, Rao PC, Abate D, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MLCB, Akal CG, Alahdab F, Alam N, Alene KA, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Anber NH, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Atalay HT, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awad S, Awasthi A, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Bassat Q, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Car J, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Christopher DJ, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Demeke FM, Deshpande A, Djalalinia S, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, El Sayed Zaki M, Endries AY, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Fullman N, Gardner WM, Geta B, Ghadiri K, Gorini G, Goulart AC, Guo Y, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hassen HY, Hoang CL, Hostiuc M, Hussain Z, Irvani SSN, James SL, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Kefale AT, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan MN, Khang YH, Khoja AT, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissoon N, Kochhar S, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Leshargie CT, Li S, Lodha R, Macarayan ERK, Majdan M, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mengistu DT, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Moore CE, Mosser JF, Mousavi SM, Murthy S, Mustafa G, Nazari J, Nguyen CT, Nguyen LH, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Ogbo FA, Okoro A, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, P A M, Pakhale S, Postma MJ, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai RK, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Rios-Blancas MJ, Ronfani L, Rosettie K, Rothenbacher D, Safari S, Saleem Z, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sawhney M, Seyedmousavi S, Shaikh MA, Sheikh A, Shigematsu M, Smith DL, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Sufiyan MB, Teklu TGE, Temsah MH, Tessema B, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Updike RL, Vasankari TJ, Veisani Y, Wada FW, Waheed Y, Weaver M, Wiens KE, Wiysonge CS, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Zaidi Z, Zar HJ, Zarghi A, Lim SS, Vos T, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Kyu HH, Hay SI, Reiner RC. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Infect Dis 2020; 20:37-59. [PMID: 31678029 PMCID: PMC7340495 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30401-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2019] [Revised: 05/13/2019] [Accepted: 07/05/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. METHODS This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1-87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1-74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2-15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6-10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8-8·4). INTERPRETATION Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
69
|
Abstract
Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1-3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4-6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9-11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12-14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
Collapse
|
70
|
Frank TD, Carter A, Jahagirdar D, Biehl MH, Douwes-Schultz D, Larson SL, Arora M, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Steuben KM, Abbastabar H, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu DM, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi K, Ahmadian E, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Akal CG, Alahdab F, Alam N, Albertson SB, Alemnew BTT, Alene KA, Alipour V, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Anbari Z, Anber NH, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Areri HA, Asfaw ET, Ashagre AF, Asmelash D, Asrat AA, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awoke N, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Banach M, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belay SA, Belay YB, Belayneh YM, Berhane A, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bin Sayeed MS, Bitew H, Blinov A, Bogale KA, Bojia HA, Burugina Nagaraja SBN, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campuzano Rincon JC, Carvalho F, Chattu VK, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Crider R, Dahiru T, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, das Neves J, De Neve JW, Degenhardt L, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demissie DB, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Des Jarlais D, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doan LP, Duber H, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duko Adema B, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elsharkawy A, Endries AY, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Farzadfar F, Fatima B, Fentahun N, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gayesa RT, Gebremedhin KB, Gebremeskel GGG, Gebreyohannes KK, Gedefaw GA, Gelaw BK, Gesesew HA, Geta B, Gezae KE, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Ginindza TTG, Gugnani HC, Guimarães RA, Haile MT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Handanagic S, Handiso DW, Hanfore LK, Hasanzadeh A, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Henok A, Hoang CL, Hosgood HD, Hosseinzadeh M, Hsairi M, Ibitoye SE, Idrisov B, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Iwu CJ, Jacobsen KH, James SL, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kasaeian A, Kassa B, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kayode GA, Kebede MM, Kefale AT, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan J, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khazaei S, Khoja AT, Kiadaliri AA, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kochhar S, Komaki H, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kuupiel D, Lal DK, Lee JJH, Lenjebo TL, Leshargie CT, Macarayan ERK, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahasha PW, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manafi N, Mapoma CC, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Mayenga ENL, Mehta V, Meles GG, Meles HG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mena AT, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohamadi-Bolbanabad A, Mohammad KA, Mohammad Y, Mohammad Darwesh A, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadi M, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammadoo-Khorasani M, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Moodley Y, Moossavi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moschos MM, Mossie TB, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Muluneh AG, Muriithi MK, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nagarajan AJ, Naik G, Najafi F, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen SH, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Noroozi M, Noubiap JJ, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Obsa MS, Odame EA, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olum S, Oppong Asante KOA, Oren E, Otstavnov SS, PA M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pakpour AH, Patel SK, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Piroozi B, Pourshams A, Qorbani M, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Ranabhat CL, Rawaf S, Reis C, Renjith V, Reta MA, Rezai MS, Rios González CM, Roro EM, Rostami A, Rubino S, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari S, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Salem MRR, Salimi Y, Salomon JA, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sayyah M, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shallo SA, Shamsizadeh M, Sharifi H, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shirkoohi R, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Sisay MMM, Sisay M, Sisay S, Smith AE, Sokhan A, Somayaji R, Soshnikov S, Stein DJ, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sykes BL, Tadesse BT, Tadesse DB, Tamirat KS, Taveira N, Tekelemedhin SW, Temesgen HD, Tesfay FH, Teshale MY, Thapa S, Tlaye KG, Topp SM, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Uthman OA, Veisani Y, Vladimirov SK, Wada FW, Waheed Y, Weldegwergs KG, Weldesamuel GTT, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Wondmagegn BY, Yeshanew AG, Yilma MT, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Yotebieng M, Youm Y, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zarghi A, Zenebe ZM, Zewale TA, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Naghavi M, Vollset SE, Wang H, Lim SS, Kyu HH, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. Lancet HIV 2019; 6:e831-e859. [PMID: 31439534 PMCID: PMC6934077 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(19)30196-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 286] [Impact Index Per Article: 57.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2019] [Revised: 05/24/2019] [Accepted: 06/10/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. METHODS We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. FINDINGS Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. INTERPRETATION Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.
Collapse
|
71
|
The global burden of childhood and adolescent cancer in 2017: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Oncol 2019; 20:1211-1225. [PMID: 31371206 PMCID: PMC6722045 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(19)30339-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 170] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2019] [Revised: 04/25/2019] [Accepted: 05/07/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). METHODS Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0-19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals. FINDINGS Globally, in 2017, there were 11·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10·6-12·3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97·3% (97·3-97·3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2·7% (2·7-2·7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82·2% (82·1-82·2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50·3% (50·3-50·3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same locations. Cancers that are uncategorised in the current GBD framework comprised 26·5% (26·5-26·5) of global childhood cancer DALYs. INTERPRETATION The GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings. The use of DALY-based estimates is crucial in demonstrating that childhood cancer burden represents an important global cancer and child health concern. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC), and St. Baldrick's Foundation.
Collapse
|
72
|
|
73
|
GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2019; 18:459-80. [PMID: 30879893 DOI: 10.1016/S1474-4422(18)30499-X] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2125] [Impact Index Per Article: 425.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2018] [Revised: 10/31/2018] [Accepted: 12/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. METHODS We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. FINDINGS Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6-46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7-20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0-12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6-10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05-1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5-90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8-35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8-17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). INTERPRETATION Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
74
|
Johnson CO, Nguyen M, Roth GA, Nichols E, Alam T, Abate D, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abraha HN, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adebayo OM, Adeoye AM, Agarwal G, Agrawal S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Alahdab F, Ali R, Alvis-Guzman N, Anber NH, Anjomshoa M, Arabloo J, Arauz A, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Awasthi A, Banach M, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Belachew AB, Belayneh YM, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bhattacharyya K, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Chaiah Y, Chiang PPC, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Chu DT, Cortinovis M, Damasceno AAM, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Davletov K, de Courten B, De la Cruz-Góngora V, Degefa MG, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Dubey M, Duken EE, Edessa D, Endres M, FARAON EMERITOJOSEA, Farzadfar F, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Flor LS, Ganji M, Gebre AK, Gebremichael TG, Geta B, Gezae KE, Gill PS, Gnedovskaya EV, Gómez-Dantés H, Goulart AC, Grosso G, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Heidari B, Herial NA, Hosseini MA, Hostiuc S, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Jahanmehr N, Javanbakht M, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kalkonde Y, Kamil TA, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karimi N, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kazemeini H, Kefale AT, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Koyanagi A, Krishnamurthi RK, Kumar GA, Lafranconi A, Lewington S, Li S, Lo WD, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta V, Mengistu G, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohajer B, Mohammad Y, Mohammadoo-khorasani M, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Mokhayeri Y, Moradi G, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Mousavi SM, Muhammed OSS, Muruet W, Naderi M, Naghavi M, Naik G, Nascimento BR, Negoi RI, Nguyen CT, Nguyen LH, Nirayo YL, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Owolabi MO, Pandian JD, Patel S, Perico N, Piradov MA, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Poustchi H, Prakash V, Qorbani M, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AM, Ricci S, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Roshandel G, Sabbagh P, Safari H, Safari S, Safiri S, Sahebkar A, Salehi Zahabi S, Samy AM, Santalucia P, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sawant AR, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sheikh A, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiue I, Siabani S, Sobaih BH, Sposato LA, Sutradhar I, Sylaja PN, Szoeke CEI, Te Ao BJ, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Thrift AG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Tran KB, Truelsen TC, Tsadik AG, Ullah I, Uthman OA, Vaduganathan M, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Vasanthan R, Venketasubramanian N, Vosoughi K, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Weiderpass E, Weldegwergs KG, Westerman R, Wolfe CDA, Wondafrash DZ, Xu G, Yadollahpour A, Yamada T, Yatsuya H, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zamani M, Zarghi A, Zhang Y, Zodpey S, Feigin VL, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2019; 18:439-458. [PMID: 30871944 PMCID: PMC6494974 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(19)30034-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1612] [Impact Index Per Article: 322.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2018] [Revised: 12/17/2018] [Accepted: 01/18/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. METHODS We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. FINDINGS In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (-39·3 to -33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (-37·2 to -31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (-10·7 to -5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men. INTERPRETATION Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
75
|
Waheed Y, Malik S, Khan M, Najmi MH. The World after Ebola: An Overview of Ebola Complications, Vaccine Development, Lessons Learned, Financial Losses, and Disease Preparedness. Crit Rev Eukaryot Gene Expr 2019. [PMID: 31002597 DOI: 10.1615/critreveukaryotgeneexpr.2019025175.] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa was the largest of its kind with 11,000 deaths and approximately 28,637 affected cases. The aim of the study was to analyze the global situation after the Ebola outbreak including Ebola complications, vaccine development, lessons learned, financial losses, and disease preparedness. We searched in PubMed, Google, and Google Scholar by using keywords Ebola virus, Ebola vaccine development and Ebola virus transmission, the world after Ebola, financial losses by Ebola outbreak, and disease preparedness. Ebola virus disease is a complex disorder associated with gastrointestinal, hepatic, renal, respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological complications. Ebola virus persisted in the semen of male infected patients for 470 to 565 days, and the chances of viral transmission by sexual contacts remained high even after patient recovery. There are several reports of extreme socioneuropsychological disorders in Ebola survivors and Ebola healthcare workers. There is no Food and Drug Administration-approved drug or vaccine for Ebola. Many research groups are working to develop a vaccine against Ebola by using different biotechnology techniques. Some vaccine candidates, including replicating vesicular stomatitis virus and Chimpanzee adenovirus-3, have entered phase III clinical trials and are expected to receive clinical licensing in coming years. The West African Ebola epidemic caused a financial loss of $6 billion in Africa and an additional global economic loss of more than $12 billion. After the Ebola epidemic, four global commissions were established for disease preparedness. A proposition was also forwarded to the World Health Organization for the establishment of the Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response for the disease management. The devastating Ebola epidemic opened the window for disease preparedness to face any future disease epidemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, DHA-I Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Shiza Malik
- Atta-ur-Rahman School of Applied Biosciences (ASAB), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Maham Khan
- Atta-ur-Rahman School of Applied Biosciences (ASAB), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Muzammil Hasan Najmi
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, DHA-I Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
76
|
Naghavi M. Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. BMJ 2019; 364:l94. [PMID: 31339847 PMCID: PMC6598639 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.l94] [Citation(s) in RCA: 423] [Impact Index Per Article: 84.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/26/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. DESIGN Systematic analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). RESULTS The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). CONCLUSIONS Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
Collapse
|
77
|
Waheed Y, Malik S, Khan M, Najmi MH. The World after Ebola: An Overview of Ebola Complications, Vaccine Development, Lessons Learned, Financial Losses, and Disease Preparedness. Crit Rev Eukaryot Gene Expr 2019; 29:77-84. [PMID: 31002597 DOI: 10.1615/critreveukaryotgeneexpr.2019025175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa was the largest of its kind with 11,000 deaths and approximately 28,637 affected cases. The aim of the study was to analyze the global situation after the Ebola outbreak including Ebola complications, vaccine development, lessons learned, financial losses, and disease preparedness. We searched in PubMed, Google, and Google Scholar by using keywords Ebola virus, Ebola vaccine development and Ebola virus transmission, the world after Ebola, financial losses by Ebola outbreak, and disease preparedness. Ebola virus disease is a complex disorder associated with gastrointestinal, hepatic, renal, respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological complications. Ebola virus persisted in the semen of male infected patients for 470 to 565 days, and the chances of viral transmission by sexual contacts remained high even after patient recovery. There are several reports of extreme socioneuropsychological disorders in Ebola survivors and Ebola healthcare workers. There is no Food and Drug Administration-approved drug or vaccine for Ebola. Many research groups are working to develop a vaccine against Ebola by using different biotechnology techniques. Some vaccine candidates, including replicating vesicular stomatitis virus and Chimpanzee adenovirus-3, have entered phase III clinical trials and are expected to receive clinical licensing in coming years. The West African Ebola epidemic caused a financial loss of $6 billion in Africa and an additional global economic loss of more than $12 billion. After the Ebola epidemic, four global commissions were established for disease preparedness. A proposition was also forwarded to the World Health Organization for the establishment of the Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response for the disease management. The devastating Ebola epidemic opened the window for disease preparedness to face any future disease epidemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, DHA-I Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Shiza Malik
- Atta-ur-Rahman School of Applied Biosciences (ASAB), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Maham Khan
- Atta-ur-Rahman School of Applied Biosciences (ASAB), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Muzammil Hasan Najmi
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, DHA-I Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
78
|
GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators. Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Respir Med 2019; 7:69-89. [PMID: 30553848 DOI: 10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30496-X] [Citation(s) in RCA: 269] [Impact Index Per Article: 53.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2018] [Revised: 11/07/2018] [Accepted: 11/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. METHODS We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. FINDINGS Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11·6-21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3·5-7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0-12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000). INTERPRETATION This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
79
|
Waheed Y, Najmi MH, Aziz H, Khalid S, Waheed H, Imran M, Ahmad B. Evaluation of Three Rapid Screening Tests for Detection of Hepatitis C Antibodies on Mass Scale. Crit Rev Eukaryot Gene Expr 2019; 29:25-28. [PMID: 31002591 DOI: 10.1615/critreveukaryotgeneexpr.2018025062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading health problem across the globe. Only 20% of HCV positive individuals know their positive disease status. Effective HCV screening tests are required to screen both general and high-risk populations and identify the silent cases of HCV. In this study, we analyzed the performance of three rapid HCV screening kits. A total of 300 subjects from three populations groups, were enrolled from Rawalpindi and Islamabad cities of Pakistan. The three groups were blood donors (n = 50), pregnant women (n = 50), and hepatitis C positive individuals (200). Blood samples of all the individuals were screened on three rapid screening tests for anti-HCV: CTK Biotech's OnSite HCV Ab Rapid Test, SD Bioline One Step anti-HCV test, and Intec Products Advanced Quality Rapid Anti-HCV Test. The performance of these three rapid tests was also compared with the Roche Anti-HCV II test performed on the cobas 601 platform based on the electrochemiluminescence immunoassay principle. In total, 300 samples were analyzed in this study, out of which 208 were positive for anti-HCV positive and 92 were negative for anti-HCV. The sensitivities of the Intec product, SD Bioline, and CTK Biotech were 98.56%, 97.59%, and 95.67%, respectively. The specificity of SD Bioline and CTK Biotech were 100%, whereas Intec products showed 98.91% specificity. The positive predictive value (PPV) of SD Bioline and CTK Biotech was 100%, but Intec products showed 99.51% PPV. The negative predictive values of the Intec product, SD Bioline, and CTK Biotech were 96.80%, 94.84%, and 91.09%, respectively. There is a dire need to speed up HCV screening to achieve the targets in the World Health Organization global viral hepatitis strategy (2016-2021). The rapid tests evaluated in this study can be used in hepatitis screening on much larger scales.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, DHA-I Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Muzammil Hasan Najmi
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, DHA-I Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Hafsa Aziz
- Nuclear Medicine Oncology and Radiotherapy Institute Islamabad, Islamabad (44000), Pakistan
| | - Sumbul Khalid
- Department of Biotechnology, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Hasnain Waheed
- Bridging Health Foundation, Rawalpindi (46000), Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Imran
- Department of Microbiology, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Bashir Ahmad
- Department of Biotechnology, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
80
|
Iqbal K, Imran M, Ullah S, Jamal M, Waheed Y. CORRIGENDUM to: Correlation of Apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing Enzyme, Catalytic Polypeptide- like 3G Genetic Variant rs8177832 with HIV-1 Predisposition in Pakistani Population. Curr HIV Res 2019; 17:146. [PMID: 31545162 DOI: 10.2174/1570162x1702190903093112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Due to oversight of an author, in the manuscript entitled "Correlation of Apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing Enzyme, Catalytic Polypeptide- like 3G Genetic Variant rs8177832 with HIV-1 Predisposition in Pakistani Population" one author's name in the authors' list was erroneously published in the Journal "Current HIV Research" 2018; 16(4): 297-301.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Khurshid Iqbal
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Imperial College of Business Studies, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Imran
- Department of Microbiology, University of Health Sciences Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Shafi Ullah
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Imperial College of Business Studies, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Muhsin Jamal
- Department of Microbiology, Abdul Wali Khan University Garden Campus Mardan, Pakistan
| | - Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
81
|
James SL, Theadom A, Ellenbogen RG, Bannick MS, Montjoy-Venning W, Lucchesi LR, Abbasi N, Abdulkader R, Abraha HN, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Alebel A, Alghnam SA, Ali BA, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Ariani F, Asefa NG, Asgedom SW, Atique S, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Badali H, Badawi A, Balalla S, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay YA, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Beuran M, Bhalla A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biffino M, Bijani A, Bililign N, Birungi C, Boufous S, Brazinova A, Brown AW, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang JC, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Cooper C, Crowe CS, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Davitoiu DV, Degefa MG, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Drake TM, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, El-Khatib Z, Ofori-Asenso R, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gezae KE, Gopalkrishna G, Goulart AC, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Haro JM, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Hendrie D, Henok A, Hibstu DT, Hoffman HJ, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hosseini SM, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Hussen MA, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jakovljevic M, Jayaraman S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jones KM, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalil I, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kim D, Kim YE, Kisa A, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Laryea DO, Latifi A, Leshargie CT, Levi M, Li S, Liben ML, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Massenburg BB, Mate KKV, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta V, Meles H, Melese A, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Mengistu G, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Murthy S, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Naghavi M, Naik G, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nyasulu PS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pakhale S, Pandey AR, Pesudovs K, Pinilla-Monsalve GD, Polinder S, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajati F, Ram U, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reiner RC, Reis C, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saddik B, Safari H, Safiri S, Sahraian MA, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MMM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savuon K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Shabaninejad H, Shaikh MAA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Shariful Islam SM, She J, Sheikh A, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shoman H, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Sinha DN, Smith M, Soares Filho AM, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sunshine JE, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Te Ao BJ, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Wagnew FWS, Waheed Y, Wang YP, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wyper GMA, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yost MG, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zenebe ZM, Zodpey S, Feigin VL, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2019; 18:56-87. [PMID: 30497965 PMCID: PMC6291456 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(18)30415-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 907] [Impact Index Per Article: 181.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2018] [Revised: 10/02/2018] [Accepted: 10/30/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
82
|
Zunt JR, Kassebaum NJ, Blake N, Glennie L, Wright C, Nichols E, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Adamu AA, Adib MG, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alene KA, Aljunid SM, AlMazroa MA, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Badali H, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Bassat Q, Bedi N, Belachew AB, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Butt ZA, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Dang AK, Daryani A, Demoz GT, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, El Sayed Zaki M, Elyazar IRF, Fakhim H, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganji M, Gebre AK, Gebremeskel A, Gessner BD, Gopalani SV, Guo Y, Gupta R, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hay SI, Henok A, Irvani SSN, Jha RP, JÜRISSON M, Kahsay A, Karami M, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TDD, Kefale AT, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Lami FH, Levi M, Li S, Loy CT, Majdan M, Majeed A, Mantovani LG, Martins-Melo FR, Mcalinden C, Mehta V, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Milosevic B, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moraga P, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Murthy S, Mustafa G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naik G, Newton CRJ, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olusanya BO, Ortiz JR, Owolabi MO, Patel S, Pinilla-Monsalve GD, Postma MJ, Qorbani M, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Reiner RC, Renzaho AM, Rezai MS, Roba KT, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Safari H, Safari S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Samy AM, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Sharif M, Shigematsu M, Si S, Skiadaresi E, Smith M, Somayaji R, Sufiyan MB, Tawye NY, Temsah MH, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Weldegwergs KG, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wiyeh AB, Wyper GM, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Zaidi Z, Zenebe ZM, Feigin VL, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2018; 17:1061-1082. [PMID: 30507391 PMCID: PMC6234314 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(18)30387-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 186] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2018] [Revised: 09/24/2018] [Accepted: 10/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. FINDINGS Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19-2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46-3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06-1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04-1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20-28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. INTERPRETATION Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
83
|
Abstract
Globally, over 300 million people are living with viral hepatitis with approximately 1.3 million deaths per year. In 2016, World Health Assembly adopted the Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis to eliminate hepatitis by 2030. Different World Health Organization member countries are working on hepatitis control strategies to achieve hepatitis elimination. So far, only 12 countries are on track to achieve hepatitis elimination targets. The aim of the study was to give an update about the progress and challenges to achieving hepatitis elimination by 2030. According to the latest data, 87% of infants had received the three doses of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination in the first year of their life and 46% of infants had received a timely birth dose of HBV vaccination. There is a strong need to improve blood and injection safety. Rates of hepatitis B and C diagnosis are very low and only 11% of hepatitis B and C cases are diagnosed. There is a dire need to speed up hepatitis diagnosis and find the missing millions of people living with viral hepatitis. Up to 2016, only 3 million hepatitis C cases have been treated. Pricing of hepatitis C virus drugs is also reduced in many countries. The major hurdle to achieve hepatitis elimination is lack of finances to support hepatitis programs. None of the major global donors are committed to invest in the fight against hepatitis. It will be very difficult for the low and middle-income countries to fund their hepatitis control program. Hepatitis elimination needs strong financial and political commitment, support from civil societies, and support from pharmaceutical and medical companies around the globe.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yasir Waheed
- Multidisciplinary Laboratory, Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Masood Siddiq
- Department of Medicine, Jinnah Memorial Hospital, 2-Civil Lines, Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan
| | - Zubia Jamil
- Department of Medicine, Fauji Foundation Hospital, Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Muzammil Hasan Najmi
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
84
|
Abstract
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7.].
Collapse
|
85
|
GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1859-922. [PMID: 30415748 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32335-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1801] [Impact Index Per Article: 300.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/18/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. METHODS We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. FINDINGS Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). INTERPRETATION With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
86
|
Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3317] [Impact Index Per Article: 552.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
87
|
Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Ford JA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Galan A, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gebre T, Gebre AK, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gessner BD, Getachew S, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hostiuc M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Isehunwa OO, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman S, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, K M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Katibeh M, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazemeini H, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, K C P, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GDD, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kissoon N, Kivimäki M, Kleber ME, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz MJ, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lan Q, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Lavados PM, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Levi M, Li S, Li Y, Li X, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lonsdale C, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Mabika C, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Maddison R, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martinez-Raga J, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Moges NA, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed S, Mohammed MA, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murhekar M, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nsoesie EO, Nyasulu PS, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz JR, Ortiz A, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey AR, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Patle A, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pearce N, Peprah EK, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perez KM, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Popova S, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prabhakaran D, Prakash V, Prakash S, Prasad N, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Raju SB, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Ranta A, Rasella D, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García C, Rego MAS, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Riojas H, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshchin DO, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Moghaddam SS, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Scaria V, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha AP, Sinha DN, Sitas F, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Srivastava RK, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temesgen H, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas LA, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagner GR, Wagnew FWS, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weiss J, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wondemagegn SA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yadav R, Yakob B, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
88
|
James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe Z, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adib MG, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alashi A, Alavian SM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alouani MML, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arabloo J, Arauz A, Aremu O, Ariani F, Armoon B, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Ataro Z, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Ballew SH, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Belachew AB, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bensenor IM, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Blacker BF, Blyth FM, Bou-Orm IR, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Brainin M, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Briko AN, Britton G, Brugha T, Buchbinder R, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cano J, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang AR, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chattopadhyay A, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chin KL, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Collado-Mateo D, Cooper C, Coresh J, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Costa M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Cross M, Crump JA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Das Neves J, Dasa TT, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, De Courten B, De La Hoz FP, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dinberu MT, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Doan L, Dokova K, Doku DT, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Echko MM, Edvardsson D, Effiong A, Ehrlich JR, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhim H, Fallah Omrani V, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fox J, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gall S, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Ghosh R, Ghoshal AG, Giampaoli S, Gill PS, Gill TK, Ginawi IA, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grams ME, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hagos TB, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley CN, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Heibati B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Herteliu C, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoang HT, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huynh CK, Iburg KM, Ikeda CT, Ileanu B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kanchan T, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Karyani AK, Keighobadi MM, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khazaei M, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim P, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Leasher JL, Ledesma JR, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li S, Li Y, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Liu S, Lodha R, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lucchesi LR, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Mahotra NB, Mai HT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Manhertz T, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonen T, Melese A, Melku M, Meltzer M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezerji NMG, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miltz B, Mini GK, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitchell PB, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mountjoy-Venning WC, Mousavi SM, Mruts KB, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Muhammed OS, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Murhekar M, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Nabhan AF, Nagata C, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik N, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen NB, Nguyen SH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nsoesie EO, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Ong KL, Ong SK, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pacella R, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Patel S, Pati S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Plana-Ripoll O, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prabhakaran D, Prakash S, Prakash V, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Ram U, Ranjan P, Ranta A, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro ALP, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saleem K, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Salz I, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sang Y, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak ELN, Sliwa K, Smith DL, Smith M, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Soosaraei M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stokes MA, Stovner LJ, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadesse BT, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Taylor HR, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temesgen H, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teweldemedhin M, Thankappan KR, Thomas N, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tran KB, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Tsilimbaris MK, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Unutzer J, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Waller SG, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, West TE, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wijeratne T, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiyeh AB, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woolf AD, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang K, Zhao Z, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1789-1858. [PMID: 30496104 PMCID: PMC6227754 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32279-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7041] [Impact Index Per Article: 1173.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Revised: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. FINDINGS Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). INTERPRETATION Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
89
|
Lozano R, Fullman N, Abate D, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe ND, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Abyu GY, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshari M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aghayan SA, Agius D, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Albujeer A, Alebel A, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Almasi A, Al-Maskari F, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amenu K, Amini E, Ammar W, Anber NH, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Appiah LT, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azarpazhooh MR, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Babalola TK, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banerjee A, Banoub JAM, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barthelemy CM, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Battista RJ, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Berhe AK, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhansali A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bitew H, Bizuneh H, Bjertness E, Bobasa EM, Boufous S, Bourne R, Bozorgmehr K, Bragazzi NL, Brainin M, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Bukhman G, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Causey K, Çavlin A, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chalek J, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Claßen TKD, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cornaby L, Cortinovis M, Costa M, Cousin E, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, de Courten B, De Leo D, De Neve JW, De Steur H, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu B, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Douwes-Schultz D, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimpour S, Edvardsson D, El Bcheraoui C, Eldrenkamp E, El-Khatib Z, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AY, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Estep K, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Fanzo J, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Farzam H, Fazaeli AA, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fekadu W, Feldman R, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, Finger JD, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Frank TD, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Fukutaki K, Fuller JE, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gankpe FG, Gansevoort RT, Garcia AC, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebre T, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Geramo YCD, Getachew S, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Giampaoli S, Gill PS, Gill TK, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Griswold MG, Grosso G, Gugnani HCC, Guillemin F, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Ha GH, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hagos TB, Haile MT, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley CN, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Heydarpour B, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Híjar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Hughes C, Huynh CK, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ivers RQ, Izadi N, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, Jamal AA, James SL, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jonnagaddala J, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, K M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karanikolos M, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, KC P, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaeipour Z, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kiarie HW, Kibret GD, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kissoon N, Kivimäki M, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kudom AA, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Lachat C, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lagat AK, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lamichhane P, Lan Q, Lang JJ, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Larsson AO, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Leasher JL, Lebedev G, Ledesma JR, Lee JB, Lee PH, Leever AT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Lewycka S, Li S, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lucchesi LR, Lyons RA, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Maghavani DP, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Mangalam S, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martin RV, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonen T, Mekonnen TCC, Meles HG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Milne GJ, Mini GK, Minnig SP, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitchell PB, Moazen B, Moghadamnia AA, Mohajer B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mohan V, Mohebi F, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez JC, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morisaki N, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mountjoy-Venning WC, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Muhammed OSS, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Muller K, Mumford JE, Murhekar M, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nabhan AF, Nachega JB, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naidoo K, Naik G, Naik N, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen A, Nguyen G, Nguyen H, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Nigatu SG, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Obermeyer CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji KE, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SK, Oommen AM, Opio JN, Oren E, Oros A, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Ortiz-Panozo E, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pan WH, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Papantoniou N, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Paulson KR, Pearce N, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pletcher M, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prabhakaran D, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Pyakurel M, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MS, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rasella D, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reis C, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi MB, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma J, Sharma R, Sharma SK, She J, Sheikh A, Shey MS, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Sliwa K, Smith AE, Smith M, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soljak M, Soofi M, Soosaraei M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Spinelli A, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan RG, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Stein DJ, Stewart LG, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Tamirat KS, Tandon N, Tanser FC, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temesgen H, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Teshome DF, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Theis A, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas LA, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tran TT, Tripathy SP, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Tsadik AG, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tymeson HD, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, van Donkelaar A, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollmer S, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Wilner LB, Winkler AS, Wiyeh AB, Wiysonge CS, Wolde HF, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Xavier D, Xu G, Xu R, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zegeye DT, Zegeye EA, Zeleke AJ, Zendehdel K, Zerfu TA, Zhang AL, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
90
|
Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Abate D, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adane AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Ademi Z, Adetokunboh OO, Adib MG, Admasie A, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afarideh M, Agarwal G, Aggarwal A, Aghayan SA, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam S, Alam T, Alashi A, Alavian SM, Alene KA, Ali K, Ali SM, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anber NH, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Antó JM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Appiah LT, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Ataro Z, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Ball K, Ballew SH, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bekru ET, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bergeron G, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Blacker BF, Bleyer A, Borschmann R, Bou-Orm IR, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briko AN, Britton G, Brugha T, Buchbinder R, Burnett RT, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Causey K, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chang KL, Charlson FJ, Chattopadhyay A, Chattu VK, Chee ML, Cheng CY, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Cooper C, Cooper OR, Coresh J, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Costa M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Cundiff DK, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Damasceno AAM, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darby SC, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De La Hoz FP, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Deshpande A, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Deveber GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Diro HD, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebert N, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edvardsson D, Effiong A, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El-Khatib Z, Elyazar IR, Enayati A, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzaei MH, Fatima B, Fay KA, Fazaeli AA, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrara G, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira ML, Filip I, Finger JD, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gall S, Gallus S, Gamkrelidze A, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Ghosh R, Ghoshal AG, Giampaoli S, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Godwin WW, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Grada A, Grams ME, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gutiérrez-Torres DS, Haagsma JA, Habtewold TD, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley CN, Hay SI, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Heibati B, Heidari B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Higazi TB, Hilawe EH, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hsiao T, Hu G, Hu H, Huang JJ, Hussen MA, Huynh CK, Iburg KM, Ikeda N, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jackson MD, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Jassal SK, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jonnagaddala J, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kanchan T, Kant S, Kar C, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan G, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khazaei M, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lachat C, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lami FH, Lang JJ, Lansingh VC, Larson SL, Latifi A, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim LL, Linn S, Liu S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Machado ÍE, Madotto F, Mai HT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martin RV, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Meier T, Mekonnen FA, Melaku YA, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Momeniha F, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffarian D, Mruts KB, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Muhammed OS, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Nabhan AF, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik N, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Neal B, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen M, Nguyen NB, Nichols E, Nie J, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nishi N, Nixon MR, Nojomi M, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nsoesie EO, Nyasulu PS, Obermeyer CM, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SK, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paulson KR, Paz Ballesteros WC, Pearce N, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Pischon T, Pishgar F, Plana-Ripoll O, Plass D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Postma MJ, Poulton R, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prabhakaran D, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Raju SB, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reddy KS, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Ribeiro ALP, Rivera JA, Roba KT, Rodríguez-Ramírez S, Roever L, Román Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Rushton L, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salam N, Salamati P, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salvi DD, Salz I, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sanders T, Sang Y, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serre ML, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shaddick G, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shamah Levy T, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharifi H, Sharma J, Sharma M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Shupler MS, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skirbekk V, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Somayaji R, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spinelli A, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Starodubov VI, Steckling N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stevanovic G, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Sturua L, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temesgen H, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thankappan KR, Theis A, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas HJ, Thomas ML, Thomas N, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, Tillmann T, To QG, Tobollik M, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tran KB, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tymeson HD, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Valdez PR, Van Donkelaar A, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Venkateswaran V, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vu GT, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Waller SG, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West JJ, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiyeh AB, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wong TY, Wu S, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang AL, Zhang H, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1923-1994. [PMID: 30496105 PMCID: PMC6227755 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32225-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2618] [Impact Index Per Article: 436.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. FINDINGS In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. INTERPRETATION By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
91
|
Murray CJL, Callender CSKH, Kulikoff XR, Srinivasan V, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdoli N, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Abejie AN, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abreu DMX, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi A, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TMM, Atique S, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Babalola TK, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Banach M, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bergeron G, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Biswas T, Bizuneh H, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Briant PS, Britton G, Burstein R, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chalek J, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Collado-Mateo D, Comfort H, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Costa M, Cromwell E, Crowe CS, Cukelj P, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu B, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dinsa GD, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duraes AR, Ebrahimpour S, Edvardsson D, El Bcheraoui C, El-Khatib Z, Elyazar IR, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Estep K, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fay KA, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fenny AP, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Fürst T, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gamkrelidze A, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Garcia GM, Garcia-Gordillo MÁ, Gebre AK, Gebre T, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gething P, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HCC, Guo J, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hibstu DT, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseini Chavoshi MM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irenso AA, Irvani SSN, Isehunwa OO, Islam SMS, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Matin BK, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Karyani AK, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaeipour Z, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kilgore PE, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz MJ, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lang JJ, Lanksy S, Lansingh VC, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Lee JB, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Levi M, Li S, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Mabika CM, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Madotto F, Mahmood TAE, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mangalam S, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehrzadi S, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez JC, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik P, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Nguyen LH, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nomura S, Noroozi M, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Shiadeh MN, Nowroozi MR, Nyandwi A, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Otieno BA, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, P A M, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey AR, Park EK, Parsian H, Patel S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Pedroso MM, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Pierce M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Polanczyk GV, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MS, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García C, Reiner RC, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Saroshe S, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Starodubov VI, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Strong M, Subart ML, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Toyoshima H, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsegay A, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yamada T, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang X, Zhao XJ, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Lopez AD, Lim SS. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
92
|
Abstract
Hepatitis B is a clinically important public health issue. Infection leads to hepatocellular carcinoma. Therefore, patients need antiviral therapy for prolonged period to prevent the complication of the disease. Data concerning chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with high hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are limited. The aim of the study was to check the efficacy of the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (tenofovir) in terms of suppression of HBV DNA. The secondary end point in the study is to evaluate trends of predictive variables that predict outcome of treatment. In this specific study, we evaluated 140 CHB male and female patients, of these 110 completed 48 weeks of treatment. On the basis of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), patients were stratified; HBV DNA and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels were measured along with liver function tests. All enrolled patients were given tenofovir disoproxil fumarate 300 mg daily before breakfast. Overall, 69.1% of patients showed virologic response. HBeAg-negative patient group showed 68% viral suppression and HBeAg-positive patient group showed 45.9% over 24 months of treatment, while at 48 months it was shown to be 76.7% and 54.1%, respectively. None of the patients suffered HBsAg loss during the 48 months. Baseline high HBV DNA level was found as a significant predictor of response (OR, 1.9; 95% CI = 1.23-3.9, p = 0.005). None of the patients observed had serious adverse events. Mutations in the RT region of polymerase gene are shown to be associated with resistance to antiviral drugs. Among patients suffering with chronic HBV infection, HBeAg-negative patient group have better virologic response as compared with HBeAg-positive group. Higher concentration of HBV DNA at baseline has negative prediction for sustained viral suppression. The A-B motif interdomain rtL122F mutation was found in nonresponder patients in our study. Another mutation rtN248H observed in E motif considered to have effect on DNA primer grip, which forms part of binding pocket.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Muneba Aziz
- 1 Maroof International Hospital , Islamabad, Pakistan
- 2 Allied Hospital , Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Hafsa Aziz
- 3 Diagnostic Labs, Nuclear Medicine Oncology and Radiotherapy Institute , Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Yasir Waheed
- 4 Foundation University Islamabad , Islamabad, Pakistan
| | | |
Collapse
|
93
|
GBD 2016 Alcohol Collaborators. Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2018; 392:1015-35. [PMID: 30146330 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31310-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1691] [Impact Index Per Article: 281.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2018] [Revised: 05/22/2018] [Accepted: 05/30/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. METHODS Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. FINDINGS Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8-8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2-4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8-13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0-2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8-9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0-1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7-1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6-1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2-33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3-22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0-0·8) standard drinks per week. INTERPRETATION Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
94
|
Fullman N, Yearwood J, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Adane AA, Adedoyin RA, Adetokunboh O, Adhikari TB, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agius D, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Aichour MTE, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali SD, Alijanzadeh M, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alomari MA, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amenu K, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Antonio CAT, Araújo VEM, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Ashebir MM, Asseffa NA, Atey TM, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayalew AA, Ayele HT, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi P, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Babalola TK, Badali H, Badawi A, Banach M, Banerjee A, Banstola A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Bernstein RS, Beuran M, Bhalla A, Bhatt P, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bizuneh H, Bolliger IW, Bolt K, Bou-Orm IR, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha TS, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Car J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chalek J, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Colombara D, Conti S, Cooper C, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Costa Pereira A, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Daryani M, Das J, Das SK, das Neves J, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Dellavalle RP, Demoz G, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan K, Dorsey ER, dos Santos KPB, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duncan BB, Echko M, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Ehrlich JR, Eldrenkamp E, El-Khatib ZZ, Endres M, Endries AY, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Faraon EJA, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatusi A, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frostad JJ, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganji M, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Geremew D, Gething PW, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Gill PS, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Goli S, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Goulart AC, Grada A, Griswold M, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta T, Gupta V, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harewood HC, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, He J, Hearps SJC, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henry NJ, Herrera Ballesteros VH, Herteliu C, Hibstu DT, Hiluf MK, Hoek HW, Homaie Rad E, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hosseini M, Hosseini SR, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idris F, Igumbor EU, Ikeda C, Ileanu BV, Ilesanmi OS, Innos K, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jain SK, Jakovljevic MB, Jalu MT, Jamal AA, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Jóúwiak J, John O, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshua V, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kar C, Karanikolos M, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Ketema EB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MN, Khan MA, Khanal MN, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja ATA, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kibret GD, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kissoon N, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kutz M, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Lang JJ, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larsson A, Latifi A, Lazarus JV, Leasher JL, Lee PH, Legesse Y, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liang J, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lind M, Linn S, Listl S, Liu P, Liu S, Lodha R, Lopez AD, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Lurton G, Lyons RA, Maalouf F, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manhertz T, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Margono C, Martinez-Raga J, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Meier T, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Meles KG, Melku M, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengiste DA, Mengistu DT, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski T, Micha R, Milam R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mini GK, Minnig S, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mlashu FW, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed E, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Molokhia M, Momeniha F, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Moosazadeh M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velasquez I, Mori R, Morrison SD, Moses M, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Murhekar M, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naik GA, Naik N, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nansseu JRN, Narayan KMV, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Newton CR, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Nguyen L, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nolte E, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Nyandwi A, Obermeyer CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Oliveira PPVD, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain AW, Palone MRT, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Park EK, Parsian H, Patel T, Pati S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Pedroso MDM, Pedroza SP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Peterson H, Petzold M, Peykari N, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Polinder S, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Prakash S, Prakash V, Prasad N, Prasad NM, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Quintana HK, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Raju SB, Ram U, Rana SM, Rankin Z, Rasella D, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García CA, Reddy P, Reiner RC, Reis C, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Rios Blancas MJ, Rivera JA, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salama J, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sancheti PK, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schaeffner E, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sharafi H, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shfare MT, Shi P, Shields C, Shigematsu M, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Shukla SR, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh L, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sinke AH, Sisay M, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Smith A, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BHA, Somai M, Soneji S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sturua L, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadesse AH, Taffere GR, Tandon N, Tariku AT, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temam Shifa G, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tesema AG, Tesfaye DJ, Tessema B, Thakur JS, Thomas N, Thompson MJ, Tillmann T, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre A, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi A, Tripathy SP, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuem KB, Tyrovolas S, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Updike R, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagnew F, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weaver MR, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, West TE, Westerman R, White RG, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wondimkun YA, Workicho A, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimer NB, Yin P, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zenebe ZM, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL, Lozano R. Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2018; 391:2236-2271. [PMID: 29893224 PMCID: PMC5986687 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30994-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 504] [Impact Index Per Article: 84.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Revised: 03/23/2018] [Accepted: 04/18/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. FINDINGS In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. INTERPRETATION GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
95
|
Global prevalence, treatment, and prevention of hepatitis B virus infection in 2016: a modelling study. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2018; 3:383-403. [PMID: 29599078 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(18)30056-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1060] [Impact Index Per Article: 176.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2017] [Revised: 02/13/2018] [Accepted: 02/16/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. Although no virological cure exists for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, existing therapies to control viral replication and prophylaxis to minimise mother-to-child transmission make elimination of HBV feasible. We aimed to estimate the national, regional, and global prevalence of HBsAg in the general population and in the population aged 5 years in 2016, as well as coverage of prophylaxis, diagnosis, and treatment. METHODS In this modelling study, we used a Delphi process that included a literature review in PubMed and Embase, followed by interviews with experts, to quantify the historical epidemiology of HBV infection. We then used a dynamic HBV transmission and progression model to estimate the country-level and regional-level prevalence of HBsAg in 2016 and the effect of prophylaxis and treatment on disease burden. FINDINGS We developed models for 120 countries, 78 of which were populated with data approved by experts. Using these models, we estimated that the global prevalence of HBsAg in 2016 was 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·4-4·6), corresponding to 291 992 000 (251 513 000-341 114 000) infections. Of these infections, around 29 million (10%) were diagnosed, and only 4·8 million (5%) of 94 million individuals eligible for treatment actually received antiviral therapy. Around 1·8 (1·6-2·2) million infections were in children aged 5 years, with a prevalence of 1·4% (1·2-1·6). We estimated that 87% of infants had received the three-dose HBV vaccination in the first year of life, 46% had received timely birth-dose vaccination, and 13% had received hepatitis B immunoglobulin along with the full vaccination regimen. Less than 1% of mothers with a high viral load had received antiviral therapy to reduce mother-to-child transmission. INTERPRETATION Our estimate of HBV prevalence in 2016 differs from previous studies, potentially because we took into account the effect of infant prophylaxis and early childhood vaccination, as well as changing prevalence over time. Although some regions are well on their way to meeting prophylaxis and prevalence targets, all regions must substantially scale-up access to diagnosis and treatment to meet the global targets. FUNDING John C Martin Foundation.
Collapse
|
96
|
Waheed Y, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Chaudhry WN, Qadri I. Awareness and risk factors associated with barbers in transmission of hepatitis B and C from Pakistani population: barber’s role in viral transmission. ASIAN BIOMED 2010; 4:435-42. [DOI: 10.2478/abm-2010-0053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Background: In Pakistan, most patients with Hepatitis B and C have history of facial and armpit shaving from barbers. Objective: Evaluate the awareness and risk factors associated with barbers in transmission of Hepatitis B and C. Subjects and methods: A cross sectional survey was conducted in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, the twin capital cities of Pakistan between January and July 2009. Five hundred and eight barbershops were surveyed. Results: Out of 508 barber shops, 99.8% and 98.2% were washing their razor with water and water plus antiseptic solution, respectively, while 99.8% were using new blades. Only 39.6% knew that hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were viral diseases, 26.6% knew that it can lead to cancer, 90.7% thought that hepatitis could be transferred by blade sharing, 47.8% knew that a vaccine for HBV was available, and 43.0% had education beyond the primary level. None of the barbers used a new or washed apron/towel on every customer. Conclusion: In Pakistan, a small number of barbers are shaving clients with an old style razor with a permanent blade. There is moderate awareness about the various modes of transmission of hepatitis among the barbers, and most of them don’t know about vaccination. A predominant number of them are considering interferon treatment as a vaccine for hepatitis B and C.
Collapse
|
97
|
Safi SZ, Badshah Y, Waheed Y, Fatima K, Tahir S, Shinwari A, Qadri I. Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes, hepatic steatosis and their correlation with clinical and virological factors in Pakistan. ASIAN BIOMED 2010; 4:253-62. [DOI: 10.2478/abm-2010-0032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Background: Due to the inherently unstable nature of HCV, various genotypes have been identified. Steatosis is a histological feature in the progression of HCV-associated liver disease and has been shown to alter the host lipid metabolism. Objective: Assess the distribution of HCV genotypes in the two provinces of Pakistan, and determine the association of hepatic steatosis with altered clinical and virological factors in chronic HCV patients. Methods: One hundred twenty six chronic HCV patients (steatosis in 49 patients) were enrolled for qualitative analysis by PCR. Out of 126 ELISA and PCR positive samples, 119 (48 with hepatic steatosis) chronic HCV patients (mean age 42.0±13.3 years, mean body mass index (BMI) 24.2±4.1) were proved positive after PCR-based detection. Biochemical and virological factors such as HCV genotype, or glucose, in 119 CHC patients were determined and compared between patients with and without hepatic steatosis. Results: Out of 126 samples, 119 were HCV positive, where 58 (48.7%) were genotype 3a, 24 (20.2%) were 3b, 12 (10.1%) were 1a, eight (6.7%) were 2a, six (5.0%) were 1b, and one (0.8%) was 4. Furthermore, seven (5.9%) had a co-infection and three (2.5%) were untypable. BMI (p=0.004), genotype 3a (p<0.001), and triglycerides (p=0.002) were significantly associated with steatosis. It is noteworthy that cholesterol (p=0.281), glucose (p=0.305), lowdensity lipoprotein (p=0.101), high-density lipoprotein (p=0.129), alanine amino transferase (p=0.099), aspartate transaminase (p=0.177), bilirubin (p= 0.882), and age (p=0.846) showed non-significant association. Conclusion: Genotype 3a is the predominant genotype in Pakistan. Hepatic steatosis is quite frequent feature in HCV patients and strongly correlates with BMI, genotype 3a, and triglyceride contents in patients infected with HCV.
Collapse
|
98
|
Waheed Y, Bin-rahat T, Safi SZ, Qadri I. Epidemiological patterns and risk factors associated with hepatitis B virus in Pakistani population. ASIAN BIOMED 2010; 4:547-54. [DOI: 10.2478/abm-2010-0069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Hepatitis B virus prevalence is increasing in Pakistani population. National level estimates regarding the prevalence are missing. People are unaware of the risk factors involved in HBV transmission. The objective of the study was to review the prevalence, genotypes, and risk factors associated with HBV transmission in Pakistani Population. Literature search was done by using keyword HBV prevalence, genotypes and risk factors from Pakistani population at Pubmed, PakMediNet and Google scholar. Six different studies showed that the percentage prevalence of HBV in general population was 4.61±0.73%, and 21 different studies showed the percentage prevalence of 2.33±0.46% in blood donors. High prevalence of 7.94±1.49% and 12.86±4.52% were observed in multi transfused and IDU populations. Six different studies showed that the major prevalent genotype was D. Awareness regarding various risk factors involved in-viral transmission was very low. Prevalence of HBV was very high in multitransfused populations due to non-implementations of international standards regarding blood transfusions. Barbers were unaware of the risk factors associated with their shops in viral transmission. Practices of unsterilized dental and surgical instruments and recycling of syringes were major factors in viral transmission. Massive awareness and vaccination programs are required to decrease the future burden of HBV from Pakistani population.
Collapse
|
99
|
Naeemi H, Aslam R, Raza SM, Shahzad MA, Naz S, Manzoor S, Khaliq S. Distribution of IL28B and IL10 polymorphisms as genetic predictors of treatment response in Pakistani HCV genotype 3 patients. Arch Virol 2018; 163:997-1008. [PMID: 29340806 DOI: 10.1007/s00705-018-3711-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2017] [Accepted: 11/28/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
There are over 10 million hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients in Pakistan. For these patients, a combination of interferon with ribavirin is the most economical and easily available treatment. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in interleukin genes have been reported to be associated with the pathogenesis and clearance of HCV, and sustained virologic response (SVR). An interleukin 28B (IL28B) gene polymorphism has been shown to modify treatment outcomes, but the effects of interleukin 10 (IL10) polymorphisms have not been previously assessed in the Pakistani population. The present study was conducted with 302 subjects categorized into two groups: 100 healthy volunteers (Group I) and 202 patients with chronic HCV (Group II). Patients within Group II were further divided into two subgroups according to therapeutic response: SVR (responders = 132) and NR (non-responders/relapsers = 70). IL28B (rs8099917, rs12979860) and IL10 (rs1800872, rs1800871, rs1800896) gene polymorphisms were studied in all subjects. A significant difference in the distribution of IL28B rs12979860C/T genotypes between the two groups (p<0.05) was observed, while of the three IL10 polymorphisms, a significant difference was only shown for rs1800896 A/G. Haplotype analysis (IL28B and IL10) showed a significant association of TTGTC and TTGTA when comparing the groups. There was a strong association of the favorable alleles rs8099917T and rs12979860C in the SVR group as compared with the NR group (p<0.05), and rs1800896 also showed an association with the SVR group as compared to the NR group (p<0.004). Haplotype analysis showed significant associations when comparing the SVR and NR subgroups, i.e. TCATC (p=0.009), TTGTA (p=0.005), TCATA (p<0.0005), TCACA (p=0.002), GTGCC (p=0.002) and TCGTC (p=0.005). IL28B (rs8099917 and rs12979860) and IL10 (rs1800896) polymorphisms alone, or in combination, are good predictors of therapeutic response in HCV-3a patients.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Humaira Naeemi
- Department of Immunology, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Zoology, Lahore College University, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Rabia Aslam
- Department of Immunology, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Syed Mohsin Raza
- Department of Physiology and Cell Biology, University of Health Sciences, Khayaban-e-Jamia Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Shagufta Naz
- Department of Zoology, Lahore College University, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Sobia Manzoor
- Department of Healthcare Biotechnology, Atta-ur-Rahman School of Applied Biosciences, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Saba Khaliq
- Department of Immunology, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan.
- Department of Physiology and Cell Biology, University of Health Sciences, Khayaban-e-Jamia Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.
| |
Collapse
|
100
|
Jamil Z, Waheed Y, Malik M, Durrani AA. Effect of Sofosbuvir plus Ribavirin therapy on hepatitis C patients in Pakistan: a retrospective study. PeerJ 2018; 6:e4853. [PMID: 29844992 PMCID: PMC5971832 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2018] [Accepted: 05/04/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The annual global deaths from viral hepatitis is 1.4 million. Pakistan has the second highest burden of hepatitis C in the world. There is dire need to evaluate the response of new direct acting antivirals for the treatment of hepatitis C patients in Pakistan. World Health Organization has developed a strategy to treat 80% of HCV patients by 2030. In Pakistan, HCV treatment rate is 1%. The aim of the study was to analyze the effect of Sofosbuvir plus Ribavirin therapy on HCV patients in Pakistan. METHODS An observational study was conducted at Fauji Foundation Hospital Rawalpindi from November-2016 to July-2017. All the drugs were administered according to the guidelines of Asia Pacific Association for the Study of Liver (APASL) for the treatment of HCV patients. A total 327 chronic HCV patients were enrolled in the study and 304 completed the treatment. Patients belonged to three different groups including treatment: Naïve patients (n = 107), Non-Responder patients (n = 126) and patients who relapsed to Interferon therapy (n = 71). All the patients were given Sofosbuvir plus Ribavirin therapy for 24 weeks and the early virological response (EVR) and end treatment response (ETR) was calculated. Different parameters including patient age, viral load, viral genotype, blood picture, ultrasound findings and liver function tests were also studied. RESULTS Out of 304 patients, 301 (99%) achieved EVR and 300 achieved ETR (98.7%). End treatment response was 95.6% in HCV genotype 1 and 98.9% in HCV genotype 3 patients. ETR was 99.06% in treatment Naïve, 99.20% in non-responders and 97.18% in previously relapsed patients. We did not find the association of any host and viral factor in the determination of EVR and ETR. CONCLUSION The Sofosbuvir plus Ribavirin treatment is highly effective, safe and cost-effective for the treatment of hepatitis C patients in Pakistan.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zubia Jamil
- Department of Medicine, Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Yasir Waheed
- Multidisciplinary Laboratory, Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Maryam Malik
- Department of Medicine, Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Asghar A. Durrani
- Department of Medicine, Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|