Estimating Tuberculosis Transmission Risks in a Primary Care Clinic in South Africa: Modeling of Environmental and Clinical Data

BACKGROUND

Congregate settings, such as healthcare clinics, may play an essential role in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. Using patient and environmental data, we studied transmission at a primary care clinic in South Africa.

METHODS

We collected patient movements, cough frequency, and clinical data, and measured indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, relative humidity, and Mtb genomes in the air. We used negative binomial regression model to investigate associations.

RESULTS

We analyzed 978 unique patients who contributed 14 795 data points. The median patient age was 33 (interquartile range [IQR], 26-41) years, and 757 (77.4%) were female. Overall, median CO2 levels were 564 (IQR 495-646) parts per million and were highest in the morning. Median number of coughs per day was 466 (IQR, 368-503), and overall median Mtb DNA copies/μL/day was 4.2 (IQR, 1.2-9.5). We found an increased presence of Mtb DNA in the air of 32% (95% credible interval, 7%-63%) per 100 additional young adults (aged 15-29 years) and 1% (0-2%) more Mtb DNA per 10% increase of relative humidity. Estimated cumulative transmission risks for patients attending the clinic monthly for at least 1 hour range between 9% and 29%.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified young adults and relative humidity as potentially important factors for transmission risks in healthcare clinics. Our approach should be used to detect transmission and evaluate infection control interventions.

Capture and visualization of live Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli from tuberculosis patient bioaerosols

Interrupting transmission is an attractive anti-tuberculosis (TB) strategy but it remains underexplored owing to our poor understanding of the events surrounding transfer of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) between hosts. Determining when live, infectious Mtb bacilli are released and by whom has proven especially challenging. Consequently, transmission chains are inferred only retrospectively, when new cases are diagnosed. This process, which relies on molecular analyses of Mtb isolates for epidemiological fingerprinting, is confounded by the prolonged infectious period of TB and the potential for transmission from transient exposures. We developed a Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC) equipped with high-efficiency filtration and sampling technologies for liquid-capture of all particulate matter (including Mtb) released during respiration and non-induced cough. Combining the mycobacterial cell wall probe, DMN-trehalose, with fluorescence microscopy of RASC-captured bioaerosols, we detected and quantified putative live Mtb bacilli in bioaerosol samples arrayed in nanowell devices. The RASC enabled non-invasive capture and isolation of viable Mtb from bioaerosol within 24 hours of collection. A median 14 live Mtb bacilli (range 0-36) were isolated in single-cell format from 90% of confirmed TB patients following 60 minutes bioaerosol sampling. This represented a significant increase over previous estimates of transmission potential, implying that many more organisms might be released daily than commonly assumed. Moreover, variations in DMN-trehalose incorporation profiles suggested metabolic heterogeneity in aerosolized Mtb. Finally, preliminary analyses indicated the capacity for serial image capture and analysis of nanowell-arrayed bacilli for periods extending into weeks. These observations support the application of this technology to longstanding questions in TB transmission including the propensity for asymptomatic transmission, the impact of TB treatment on Mtb bioaerosol release, and the physiological state of aerosolized bacilli.

Sensitivity optimisation of tuberculosis bioaerosol sampling

INTRODUCTION

Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) in patient-derived bioaerosol is a potential tool to measure source case infectiousness. However, current bioaerosol sampling approaches have reported low detection yields in sputum-positive TB cases. To increase the utility of bioaerosol sampling, we present advances in bioaerosol collection and Mtb identification that improve detection yields.

METHODS

A previously described Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC) protocol, or "RASC-1", was modified to incorporate liquid collection of bioaerosol using a high-flow wet-walled cyclone (RASC-2). Individuals with GeneXpert-positive pulmonary TB were sampled pre-treatment over 60-minutes. Putative Mtb bacilli were detected in collected fluid by fluorescence microscopy utilising DMN-Trehalose. Exhaled air and bioaerosol volumes were estimated using continuous CO2 monitoring and airborne particle counting, respectively. Mtb capture was calculated per exhaled air volume sampled and bioaerosol volume for RASC-1 (n = 35) and for RASC-2 (n = 21). Empty chamber samples were collected between patients as controls.

RESULTS

The optimised RASC-2 protocol sampled a median of 258.4L (IQR: 226.9-273.6) of exhaled air per patient compared with 27.5L (IQR: 23.6-30.3) for RASC-1 (p<0.0001). Bioaerosol volume collection was estimated at 2.3nL (IQR: 1.1-3.6) for RASC-2 compared with 0.08nL (IQR: 0.05-0.10) for RASC-1 (p<0.0001). The detection yield of viable Mtb improved from 43% (median 2 CFU, range: 1-14) to 95% (median 20.5 DMN-Trehalose positive bacilli, range: 2-155). These improvements represent a lowering of the limit of detection in the RASC-2 platform to 0.9 Mtb bacilli per 100L of exhaled air from 3.3 Mtb bacilli per 100L (RASC-1).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that technical improvements in particle collection together with sensitive detection enable rapid quantitation of viable Mtb in bioaerosols of sputum positive TB cases. Increased sampling sensitivity may allow future TB transmission studies to be extended to sputum-negative and subclinical individuals, and suggests the potential utility of bioaerosol measurement for rapid intervention in other airborne infectious diseases.

Novel approach to estimate tuberculosis transmission in primary care clinics in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol of a prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is difficult to measure, and its drivers are not well understood. The effectiveness of infection control measures at healthcare clinics and the most appropriate intervention strategies to interrupt transmission are unclear. We propose a novel approach using clinical, environmental and position-tracking data to study the risk of TB transmission at primary care clinics in TB and HIV high burden settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We describe a novel and rapid study design to assess risk factors for airborne TB transmission at primary care clinics in high-burden settings. The study protocol combines a range of different measurements. We will collect anonymous data on the number of patients, waiting times and patient movements using video sensors. Also, we will collect acoustic sound recordings to determine the frequency and intensity of coughing. Environmental data will include indoor carbon dioxide levels (CO₂ in parts per million) and relative humidity. We will also extract routinely collected clinical data from the clinic records. The number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis particles in the air will be ascertained from dried filter units using highly sensitive digital droplet PCR. We will calculate rebreathed air volume based on people density and CO₂ levels and develop a mathematical model to estimate the risk of TB transmission. The mathematical model can then be used to estimate the effect of possible interventions such as separating patient flows or improving ventilation in reducing transmission. The feasibility of our approach was recently demonstrated in a pilot study in a primary care clinic in Cape Town, South Africa.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the University of Cape Town (HREC/REF no. 228/2019), the City of Cape Town (ID-8139) and the Ethics Committee of the Canton Bern (2019-02131), Switzerland. The results will be disseminated in international peer-reviewed journals.

RISK6, a 6-gene transcriptomic signature of TB disease risk, diagnosis and treatment response

Improved tuberculosis diagnostics and tools for monitoring treatment response are urgently needed. We developed a robust and simple, PCR-based host-blood transcriptomic signature, RISK6, for multiple applications: identifying individuals at risk of incident disease, as a screening test for subclinical or clinical tuberculosis, and for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. RISK6 utility was validated by blind prediction using quantitative real-time (qRT) PCR in seven independent cohorts. Prognostic performance significantly exceeded that of previous signatures discovered in the same cohort. Performance for diagnosing subclinical and clinical disease in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected persons, assessed by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, exceeded 85%. As a screening test for tuberculosis, the sensitivity at 90% specificity met or approached the benchmarks set out in World Health Organization target product profiles for non-sputum-based tests. RISK6 scores correlated with lung immunopathology activity, measured by positron emission tomography, and tracked treatment response, demonstrating utility as treatment response biomarker, while predicting treatment failure prior to treatment initiation. Performance of the test in capillary blood samples collected by finger-prick was noninferior to venous blood collected in PAXgene tubes. These results support incorporation of RISK6 into rapid, capillary blood-based point-of-care PCR devices for prospective assessment in field studies.

Dietary Nitrite Drives Disease Outcomes in Oral Polymicrobial Infections

Streptococcus mutans resides in the oral polymicrobial biofilm and is a major contributor to the development of dental caries. Interestingly, high salivary nitrite concentrations have been associated with a decreased prevalence of dental caries. Moreover, the combination of hydrogen peroxide-producing oral commensal streptococci and nitrite has been shown to mediate the generation of reactive nitrogen species, which have antimicrobial activity. The goal of this study was to examine whether nitrite affects S. mutans virulence during polymicrobial infections with the commensal Streptococcus parasanguinis. Here, we report that the combination of S. parasanguinis and nitrite inhibited S. mutans growth and biofilm formation in vitro. Glucan production, which is critical for S. mutans biofilm formation, was also inhibited in 2-species biofilms with S. parasanguinis containing nitrite as compared with biofilms that contained no nitrite. In the in vivo caries model, enamel and dentin carious lesions were significantly reduced in rats that were colonized with S. parasanguinis prior to infection with S. mutans and received nitrite in the drinking water, as compared with animals that had a single S. mutans infection or were co-colonized with both bacteria and received no nitrite. Last, we report that S. mutans LiaS, a sensor kinase of the LiaFSR 3-component system, mediates resistance to nitrosative stress. In summary, our data demonstrate that commensal streptococci and nitrite provide protection against S. mutans pathogenesis. Modulating nitrite concentrations in the oral cavity could be a useful strategy to combat the prevalence of dental caries.

Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli in bio-aerosols from untreated TB patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is predominantly an airborne disease. However, quantitative and qualitative analysis of bio-aerosols containing the aetiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), has proven very challenging. Our objective is to sample bio-aerosols from newly diagnosed TB patients for detection and enumeration of Mtb bacilli. Methods: We monitored each of 35 newly diagnosed, GeneXpert sputum-positive, TB patients during 1 hour confinement in a custom-built Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC). The RASC (a small clean-room of 1.4m ) incorporates aerodynamic particle size detection, viable and non-viable sampling devices, real-time CO 2 monitoring, and cough sound-recording. Microbiological culture and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) were used to detect Mtb in each of the bio-aerosol collection devices. Results:  Mtb was detected in 27/35 (77.1%) of aerosol samples; 15/35 (42.8%) samples were positive by mycobacterial culture and 25/27 (92.96%) were positive by ddPCR. Culturability of collected bacilli was not predicted by radiographic evidence of pulmonary cavitation, sputum smear positivity. A correlation was found between cough rate and culturable bioaerosol.  Mtb was detected on all viable cascade impactor stages with a peak at aerosol sizes 2.0-3.5μm. This suggests a median of 0.09 CFU/litre of exhaled air (IQR: 0.07 to 0.3 CFU/l) for the aerosol culture positives and an estimated median concentration of 4.5x10 CFU/ml (IQR: 2.9x10 -5.6x10 ) of exhaled particulate bio-aerosol. Conclusions:  Mtb was identified in bio-aerosols exhaled by the majority of untreated TB patients using the RASC. Molecular detection was more sensitive than mycobacterial culture on solid media, suggesting that further studies are required to determine whether this reflects a significant proportion of differentially detectable bacilli in these samples.

Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli in bio-aerosols from untreated TB patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is predominantly an airborne disease. However, quantitative and qualitative analysis of bio-aerosols containing the aetiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), has proven very challenging. Our objective is to sample bio-aerosols from newly diagnosed TB patients for detection and enumeration of Mtb bacilli. Methods: We monitored each of 35 newly diagnosed, GeneXpert sputum-positive, TB patients during 1 hour confinement in a custom-built Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC). The RASC (a small clean-room of 1.4m ) incorporates aerodynamic particle size detection, viable and non-viable sampling devices, real-time CO 2 monitoring, and cough sound-recording. Microbiological culture and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) were used to detect Mtb in each of the bio-aerosol collection devices. Results:  Mtb was detected in 27/35 (77.1%) of aerosol samples; 15/35 (42.8%) samples were positive by mycobacterial culture and 25/27 (92.96%) were positive by ddPCR. Culturability of collected bacilli was not predicted by radiographic evidence of pulmonary cavitation, sputum smear positivity, or cough rate. Mtb was detected on all viable cascade impactor stages with a peak at aerosol sizes 2.0-3.5μm. This suggests a median of 0.09 CFU/litre of exhaled air (IQR: 0.07 to 0.3 CFU/l) for the aerosol culture positives and an estimated median concentration of 4.5x10 CFU/ml (IQR: 2.9x10 -5.6x10 ) of exhaled particulate bio-aerosol. Conclusions:  Mtb was identified in bio-aerosols exhaled by the majority of untreated TB patients using the RASC. Molecular detection was more sensitive than mycobacterial culture on solid media, suggesting that further studies are required to determine whether this reflects a significant proportion of differentially detectable  bacilli in these samples.

Targeting of Streptococcus mutans Biofilms by a Novel Small Molecule Prevents Dental Caries and Preserves the Oral Microbiome

Dental caries is a costly and prevalent disease characterized by the demineralization of the tooth's enamel. Disease outcome is influenced by host factors, dietary intake, cariogenic bacteria, and other microbes. The cariogenic bacterial species Streptococcus mutans metabolizes sucrose to initiate biofilm formation on the tooth surface and consequently produces lactic acid to degrade the tooth's enamel. Persistence of S. mutans biofilms in the oral cavity can lead to tooth decay. To date, no anticaries therapies that specifically target S. mutans biofilms but do not disturb the overall oral microbiome are available. We screened a library of 2-aminoimidazole antibiofilm compounds with a biofilm dispersion assay and identified a small molecule that specifically targets S. mutans biofilms. At 5 µM, the small molecule annotated 3F1 dispersed 50% of the established S. mutans biofilm but did not disperse biofilms formed by the commensal species Streptococcus sanguinis or Streptococcus gordonii. 3F1 dispersed S. mutans biofilms independently of biofilm-related factors such as antigen I/II and glucosyltransferases. 3F1 treatment effectively prevented dental caries by controlling S. mutans in a rat caries model without perturbing the oral microbiota. Our study demonstrates that selective targeting of S. mutans biofilms by 3F1 was able to effectively reduce dental caries in vivo without affecting the overall oral microbiota shaped by the intake of dietary sugars, suggesting that the pathogenic biofilm-specific treatment is a viable strategy for disease prevention.

An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development and evaluation of new global and local computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype

OBJECTIVES

Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here, we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare the potential utility of global and local models as a treatment tool for South Africa.

METHODS

Global random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to therapy following virological failure using 29 574 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype, 3179 of which were from South Africa and were used to develop local models. In addition, 15 130 TCEs including genotypes were used to develop another set of models. The 'no-genotype' models were tested with an independent global test set (n = 1700) plus a subset from South Africa (n = 222). The genotype models were tested with 750 independent cases.

RESULTS

The global no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.79 with the global and South African tests sets, respectively, and the South African models achieved AUCs of 0.70 and 0.79. The genotype models achieved an AUC of 0.84. The global no-genotype models identified more alternative, locally available regimens that were predicted to be effective for cases that failed their new regimen in the South African clinics than the local models. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate predictors of outcomes than genotyping with rules-based interpretation.

CONCLUSIONS

These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype, out-performed the local South African models and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Computational models as predictors of HIV treatment outcomes for the Phidisa cohort in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Selecting the optimal combination of HIV drugs for an individual in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotyping.

OBJECTIVE

The evaluation as a potential treatment support tool of computational models that predict response to therapy without a genotype, using cases from the Phidisa cohort in South Africa.

METHODS

Cases from Phidisa of treatment change following failure were identified that had the following data available: baseline CD4 count and viral load, details of failing and previous antiretroviral drugs, drugs in new regimen and time to follow-up. The HIV Resistance Response Database Initiative's (RDI's) models used these data to predict the probability of a viral load < 50 copies/mL at follow-up. The models were also used to identify effective alternative combinations of three locally available drugs.

RESULTS

The models achieved accuracy (area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve) of 0.72 when predicting response to therapy, which is less accurate than for an independent global test set (0.80) but at least comparable to that of genotyping with rules-based interpretation. The models were able to identify alternative locally available three-drug regimens that were predicted to be effective in 69% of all cases and 62% of those whose new treatment failed in the clinic.

CONCLUSION

The predictive accuracy of the models for these South African patients together with the results of previous studies suggest that the RDI's models have the potential to optimise treatment selection and reduce virological failure in different patient populations, without the use of a genotype.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure.

RESULTS

The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years.

CONCLUSION

The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Real-Time Investigation of Tuberculosis Transmission: Developing the Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC)

Knowledge of the airborne nature of respiratory disease transmission owes much to the pioneering experiments of Wells and Riley over half a century ago. However, the mechanical, physiological, and immunopathological processes which drive the production of infectious aerosols by a diseased host remain poorly understood. Similarly, very little is known about the specific physiological, metabolic and morphological adaptations which enable pathogens such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) to exit the infected host, survive exposure to the external environment during airborne carriage, and adopt a form that is able to enter the respiratory tract of a new host, avoiding innate immune and physical defenses to establish a nascent infection. As a first step towards addressing these fundamental knowledge gaps which are central to any efforts to interrupt disease transmission, we developed and characterized a small personal clean room comprising an array of sampling devices which enable isolation and representative sampling of airborne particles and organic matter from tuberculosis (TB) patients. The complete unit, termed the Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC), is instrumented to provide real-time information about the particulate output of a single patient, and to capture samples via a suite of particulate impingers, impactors and filters. Applying the RASC in a clinical setting, we demonstrate that a combination of molecular and microbiological assays, as well as imaging by fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy, can be applied to investigate the identity, viability, and morphology of isolated aerosolized particles. Importantly, from a preliminary panel of active TB patients, we observed the real-time production of large numbers of airborne particles including Mtb, as confirmed by microbiological culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping. Moreover, direct imaging of captured samples revealed the presence of multiple rod-like Mtb organisms whose physical dimensions suggested the capacity for travel deep into the alveolar spaces of the human lung.

Quantification of shared air: a social and environmental determinant of airborne disease transmission

Background

Tuberculosis is endemic in Cape Town, South Africa where a majority of the population become tuberculosis infected before adulthood. While social contact patterns impacting tuberculosis and other respiratory disease spread have been studied, the environmental determinants driving airborne transmission have not been quantified.

Methods

Indoor carbon dioxide levels above outdoor levels reflect the balance of exhaled breath by room occupants and ventilation. We developed a portable monitor to continuously sample carbon dioxide levels, which were combined with social contact diary records to estimate daily rebreathed litres. A pilot study established the practicality of monitor use up to 48-hours. We then estimated the daily volumes of air rebreathed by adolescents living in a crowded township.

Results

One hundred eight daily records were obtained from 63 adolescents aged between 12- and 20-years. Forty-five lived in wooden shacks and 18 in brick-built homes with a median household of 4 members (range 2–9). Mean daily volume of rebreathed air was 120.6 (standard error: 8.0) litres/day, with location contributions from household (48%), school (44%), visited households (4%), transport (0.5%) and other locations (3.4%). Independent predictors of daily rebreathed volumes included household type (p = 0.002), number of household occupants (p = 0.021), number of sleeping space occupants (p = 0.022) and winter season (p<0.001).

Conclusions

We demonstrated the practical measurement of carbon dioxide levels to which individuals are exposed in a sequence of non-steady state indoor environments. A novel metric of rebreathed air volume reflects social and environmental factors associated with airborne infection and can identify locations with high transmission potential.

Decreasing household contribution to TB transmission with age: a retrospective geographic analysis of young people in a South African township

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission rates are exceptionally high in endemic TB settings. Adolescence represents a period of increasing TB infection and disease but little is known as to where adolescents acquire TB infection. We explored the relationship between residential exposure to adult TB cases and infection in children and adolescents in a South African community with high burdens of TB and HIV.

Methods

TB infection data were obtained from community, school-based tuberculin skin test (TST) surveys performed in 2006, 2007 and 2009. A subset of 2007 participants received a repeat TST in 2009, among which incident TB infections were identified. Using residential address, all adult TB cases notified by the community clinic between 1996 and 2009 were cross-referenced with childhood and adolescent TST results. Demographic and clinic data including HIV status were abstracted for TB cases. Multivariate logistic regression models examined the association of adult TB exposure with childhood and adolescent prevalent and incident TB infection.

Results

Of 1,100 children and adolescents included in the prevalent TB infection analysis, 480 (44%) were TST positive and 651 (59%) were exposed to an adult TB case on their residential plot. Prevalent TB infection in children aged 5–9 and 10–14 years was positively associated with residential exposure to an adult TB case (odds ratio [OR]:2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-3.6 and OR:1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.3 respectively), but no association was found in adolescents ≥15 years (OR:1.4; 95% CI: 0.9-2.0). HIV status of adult TB cases was not associated with TB infection (p = 0.62). Of 67 previously TST negative children, 16 (24%) converted to a positive TST in 2009. These incident infections were not associated with residential exposure to an adult TB case (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 0.5-7.3).

Conclusions

TB infection among young children was strongly associated with residential exposure to an adult TB case, but prevalent and incident TB infection in adolescents was not associated with residential exposure. The HIV-status of adult TB cases was not a risk factor for transmission. The high rates of TB infection and disease among adolescents underscore the importance of identifying where infection occurs in this age group.

Integrating social contact and environmental data in evaluating tuberculosis transmission in a South African township

BACKGROUND

Population models of tuberculosis transmission have not accounted for social contact structure and the role of the environment in which tuberculosis is transmitted.

METHODS

We utilized extensions to the Wells-Riley model of tuberculosis transmission, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a tracer gas, to describe transmission patterns in an endemic community. Drawing upon social interaction data and carbon dioxide measurements from a South African township, we created an age-structured model of tuberculosis transmission in households, public transit, schools, and workplaces. We fit the model to local data on latent tuberculosis prevalence by age.

RESULTS

Most tuberculosis infections (84%) were estimated to occur outside of one's own household. Fifty percent of infections among young adults (ages 15-19) occurred in schools, due to high contact rates and poor ventilation. Despite lower numbers of contacts in workplaces, assortative mixing among adults with high rates of smear-positive tuberculosis contributed to transmission in this environment. Households and public transit were important sites of transmission between age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with molecular epidemiologic estimates, a minority of tuberculosis transmission was estimated to occur within households, which may limit the impact of contact investigations. Further work is needed to investigate the role of schools in tuberculosis transmission.

An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models that do not require a genotype to predict HIV treatment outcomes

OBJECTIVES

The optimal individualized selection of antiretroviral drugs in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotyping. Here we describe the development of the latest computational models to predict the response to combination antiretroviral therapy without a genotype, for potential use in such settings.

METHODS

Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of a virological response to therapy (<50 copies HIV RNA/mL) following virological failure using the following data from 22,567 treatment-change episodes including 1090 from southern Africa: baseline viral load and CD4 cell count, treatment history, drugs in the new regimen, time to follow-up and follow-up viral load. The models were assessed during cross-validation and with an independent global test set of 1000 cases including 100 from southern Africa. The models' accuracy [area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC)] was evaluated and compared with genotyping using rules-based interpretation systems for those cases with genotypes available.

RESULTS

The models achieved AUCs of 0.79-0.84 (mean 0.82) during cross-validation, 0.80 with the global test set and 0.78 with the southern African subset. The AUCs were significantly lower (0.56-0.57) for genotyping.

CONCLUSIONS

The models predicted virological response to HIV therapy without a genotype as accurately as previous models that included a genotype. They were accurate for cases from southern Africa and significantly more accurate than genotyping. These models will be accessible via the online treatment support tool HIV-TRePS and have the potential to help optimize antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings where genotyping is not generally available.

Modeling the role of public transportation in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South Africa

Current tuberculosis notification rates in South Africa are among the highest ever recorded. Although the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic has been a critical factor, the density of respiratory contacts in high-risk environments may be an important and underappreciated driver. Using a modified Wells-Riley model for airborne disease transmission, we estimated the risk of tuberculosis transmission on 3 modes of public transit (minibus taxis, buses, and trains) in Cape Town, South Africa, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a natural tracer gas to evaluate air exchange. Carbon dioxide measurements were performed between October and December of 2011. Environmental risk, reflected in the rebreathed fraction of air, was highest in minibus taxis and lowest in trains; however, the average number of passengers sharing an indoor space was highest in trains and lowest in minibus taxis. Among daily commuters, the annual risk of tuberculosis infection was projected to be 3.5%-5.0% and was highest among minibus taxi commuters. Assuming a duration of infectiousness of 1 year, the basic reproductive number attributable to transportation was more than 1 in all 3 modes of transportation. Given its poor ventilation and high respiratory contact rates, public transportation may play a critical role in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South African cities.