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Fall S, Watts A, Nielsen-Gammon J, Jones E, Niyogi D, Christy JR, Pielke RA. Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Crompton RP, McAneney KJ, Chen K, Pielke RA, Haynes K. Influence of Location, Population, and Climate on Building Damage and Fatalities due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1175/2010wcas1063.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
This study reevaluates the history of building damage and loss of life due to bushfire (wildfire) in Australia since 1925 in light of the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria in which 173 people lost their lives and 2298 homes were destroyed along with many other structures. Historical records are normalized to estimate building damage and fatalities had events occurred under the societal conditions of 2008/09. There are relationships between normalized building damage and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena, but there is no discernable evidence that the normalized data are being influenced by climatic change due to the emission of greenhouse gases. The 2009 Black Saturday fires rank second in terms of normalized fatalities and fourth in terms of normalized building damage. The public safety concern is that, of the 10 years with the highest normalized building damage, the 2008/09 bushfire season ranks third, behind the 1925/26 and 1938/39 seasons, in terms of the ratio of normalized fatalities to building damage. A feature of the building damage in the 2009 Black Saturday fires in some of the most affected towns—Marysville and Kinglake—is the large proportion of buildings destroyed either within bushland or at very small distances from it (<10 m). Land use planning policies in bushfire-prone parts of this country that allow such development increase the risk that bushfires pose to the public and the built environment.
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Ray DK, Pielke RA, Nair US, Niyogi D. Roles of atmospheric and land surface data in dynamic regional downscaling. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd012218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Klotzbach PJ, Pielke RA, Pielke RA, Christy JR, McNider RT. Correction to “An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere”. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Klotzbach PJ, Pielke RA, Pielke RA, Christy JR, McNider RT. An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd011841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Pielke RA. Decarbonization figures for India and China unconvincing. Nature 2009; 462:158-9. [DOI: 10.1038/462158d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Ray DK, Pielke RA, Nair US, Welch RM, Lawton RO. Importance of land use versus atmospheric information verified from cloud simulations from a frontier region in Costa Rica. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Pielke RA. The Nonscientist Science Adviser. Science 2009; 323:1010. [DOI: 10.1126/science.323.5917.1010a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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Rockel B, Castro CL, Pielke RA, von Storch H, Leoncini G. Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Matsui T, Beltrán-Przekurat A, Niyogi D, Pielke RA, Coughenour M. Aerosol light scattering effect on terrestrial plant productivity and energy fluxes over the eastern United States. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Lo JCF, Yang ZL, Pielke RA. Assessment of three dynamical climate downscaling methods using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 259] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Pielke RA, Davey CA, Niyogi D, Fall S, Steinweg-Woods J, Hubbard K, Lin X, Cai M, Lim YK, Li H, Nielsen-Gammon J, Gallo K, Hale R, Mahmood R, Foster S, McNider RT, Blanken P. Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd008229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 135] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Pielke RA. Future economic damage from tropical cyclones: sensitivities to societal and climate changes. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2007; 365:2717-29. [PMID: 17666386 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
This paper examines future economic damages from tropical cyclones under a range of assumptions about societal change, climate change and the relationship of climate change to damage in 2050. It finds in all cases that efforts to reduce vulnerability to losses, often called climate adaptation, have far greater potential effectiveness to reduce damage related to tropical cyclones than efforts to modulate the behaviour of storms through greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies, typically called climate mitigation and achieved through energy policies. The paper urges caution in using economic losses of tropical cyclones as justification for action on energy policies when far more potentially effective options are available.
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Strack JE, Pielke RA, Liston GE. Arctic tundra shrub invasion and soot deposition: Consequences for spring snowmelt and near-surface air temperatures. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jg000297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Matsui T, Beltrán-Przekurat A, Pielke RA, Niyogi D, Coughenour MB. Continental-scale multiobservation calibration and assessment of Colorado State University Unified Land Model by application of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface albedo. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jg000229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Ray DK, Nair US, Lawton RO, Welch RM, Pielke RA. Impact of land use on Costa Rican tropical montane cloud forests: Sensitivity of orographic cloud formation to deforestation in the plains. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Matsui T, Masunaga H, Kreidenweis SM, Pielke RA, Tao WK, Chin M, Kaufman YJ. Satellite-based assessment of marine low cloud variability associated with aerosol, atmospheric stability, and the diurnal cycle. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Abstract
Since the record impact of Hurricane Katrina, attention has focused on understanding trends in hurricanes and their destructive potential. Emanuel reports a marked increase in the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on identification of a trend in an accumulated annual index of power dissipation in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific since the 1970s. If hurricanes are indeed becoming more destructive over time, then this trend should manifest itself in more destruction. However, my analysis of a long-term data set of hurricane losses in the United States shows no upward trend once the data are normalized to remove the effects of societal changes.
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Peters DPC, Pielke RA, Bestelmeyer BT, Allen CD, Munson-McGee S, Havstad KM. Cross-scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2004; 101:15130-5. [PMID: 15469919 PMCID: PMC523446 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0403822101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 347] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2004] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Catastrophic events share characteristic nonlinear behaviors that are often generated by cross-scale interactions and feedbacks among system elements. These events result in surprises that cannot easily be predicted based on information obtained at a single scale. Progress on catastrophic events has focused on one of the following two areas: nonlinear dynamics through time without an explicit consideration of spatial connectivity [Holling, C. S. (1992) Ecol. Monogr. 62, 447-502] or spatial connectivity and the spread of contagious processes without a consideration of cross-scale interactions and feedbacks [Zeng, N., Neeling, J. D., Lau, L. M. & Tucker, C. J. (1999) Science 286, 1537-1540]. These approaches rarely have ventured beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries. We provide an interdisciplinary, conceptual, and general mathematical framework for understanding and forecasting nonlinear dynamics through time and across space. We illustrate the generality and usefulness of our approach by using new data and recasting published data from ecology (wildfires and desertification), epidemiology (infectious diseases), and engineering (structural failures). We show that decisions that minimize the likelihood of catastrophic events must be based on cross-scale interactions, and such decisions will often be counterintuitive. Given the continuing challenges associated with global change, approaches that cross disciplinary boundaries to include interactions and feedbacks at multiple scales are needed to increase our ability to predict catastrophic events and develop strategies for minimizing their occurrence and impacts. Our framework is an important step in developing predictive tools and designing experiments to examine cross-scale interactions.
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Pielke RA, Chase TN. Comment on "Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes". Science 2004. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1090986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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