A Clinical Tool to Relate Youth Risk Factors to Adult Cardiovascular Events and Type 2 Diabetes: The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To translate data relating childhood cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and adult CV disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to clinically actionable values.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective observational study (n = 38 589) in the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort Consortium. Children at age 3 through 19 years were enrolled in the 1970s and 1980s and followed for more than 30 years. Five childhood CV risk factors (smoking, body mass index [BMI], systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, and total cholesterol) were related to adult CV events. Secondary analyses in a subset included low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glucose, and insulin level. Age- and sex-specific z scores were calculated for each risk factor, and a combined-risk z score was calculated by averaging z scores for the 5 key CV risk factors. Risk factor z scores were back-transformed to natural units for clinical interpretation, with hazard ratios for adult CV events presented in color-coded tables (green: no increased risk; orange: 1.4 to <2.0-fold increased risk; red: at least doubling of risk). Risk levels for development of adult T2DM on the basis of BMI, glucose, and insulin were similarly calculated and presented.

RESULTS

Increased risk for CV events was observed at levels lower than currently defined abnormal clinical thresholds except for TC. Doubling of risk was observed at high normal levels just below the clinical cut point for abnormality. Risk for adult T2DM began at levels of BMI and glucose currently considered normal.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of data showing significant relationships between childhood CV risk factors and adult CV events and T2DM, this study shows that risk in childhood begins below levels currently considered normal.

Polygenic Risk Scores and the Risk of Childhood Overweight/Obesity in Association With the Consumption of Sweetened Beverages: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) and non-nutritive sweetened beverage (NNSB) consumption is associated with obesity and are targets for population-level dietary interventions. In children (<16 years), we evaluate whether SSB or NNSB consumption is associated with subsequent (2 years later) overweight and/or obesity, and the effect of consumption on subsequent overweight/obesity differs by BMI polygenic risk score (BMI-PRS). Methods: The nationally representative Longitudinal-Study-of-Australian-Children had biennial data collection from birth (n = 5107) until age 14/15 years (n = 3127). At age 11/12 years, a comprehensive biomedical assessment, including PRS assessment, was undertaken (n = 1422). Parent- or self-reported beverage consumption (SSBs: soft drinks, energy drinks, and/or juice; NNSBs: diet drinks) was measured as any/none over previous 24 hours. BMI-PRS was derived using published results (high PRS ≥75th percentile). At ages 4/5-14/15 children were classified as having obesity, overweight/obesity, or not having overweight/obesity using BMI z-score (CDC cut points). Results: SSB consumption had limited association with subsequent overweight/obesity. NNSB consumption was associated with ∼8% more children with subsequent overweight/obesity at most ages. In older children with high BMI-PRS, associations between NNSB consumption and subsequent overweight/obesity strengthened with age [at age 14-15 for high BMI-PRS, difference in proportion with overweight/obesity among NNSB consumers vs. nonconsumers = 0.38 (95% confidence interval: 0.22 to 0.55, p ≤ 0.001)]. There was limited association between SSB consumption and BMI-PRS. Conclusion: NNSB consumption was associated with increased risk of overweight/obesity for children with greater genetic risk at older ages (12-15 years). Focused intervention among children with high genetic risk could target NNSB consumption; however, reverse causality (children with genetic risk and/or high BMI consume more NNSBs) cannot be excluded.

Lipoprotein(a) in Youth and Prediction of Major Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adulthood

BACKGROUND

Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a common risk factor for cardiovascular disease outcomes with unknown mechanisms. We examined its potential role in identifying youths who are at increased risk of developing adult atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

METHODS

Lp(a) levels measured in youth 9 to 24 years of age were linked to adult ASCVD and carotid intima-media thickness in the YFS (Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study), in which 95 of the original 3596 participants (2.7%) recruited as children have been diagnosed with ASCVD at a median of 47 years of age. Results observed in YFS were replicated with the use of data for White participants from the BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study). In BHS, 587 White individuals had data on youth Lp(a) (measured at 8-17 years of age) and information on adult events, including 15 cases and 572 noncases. Analyses were performed with the use of Cox proportional hazard regression.

RESULTS

In YFS, those who had been exposed to high Lp(a) level in youth [defined as Lp(a) ≥30 mg/dL] had ≈2 times greater risk of developing adult ASCVD compared with nonexposed individuals (hazard ratio, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.4-2.6]). Youth risk factors, including Lp(a), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking, were all independently associated with higher risk. In BHS, in an age- and sex-adjusted model, White individuals who had been exposed to high Lp(a) had 2.5 times greater risk (95% CI, 0.9-6.8) of developing adult ASCVD compared with nonexposed individuals. When also adjusted for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and body mass index, the risk associated with high Lp(a) remained unchanged (hazard ratio, 2.4 [95% CI, 0.8-7.3]). In a multivariable model for pooled data, individuals exposed to high Lp(a) had 2.0 times greater risk (95% CI, 1.0-3.7) of developing adult ASCVD compared with nonexposed individuals. No association was detected between youth Lp(a) and adult carotid artery thickness in either cohort or pooled data.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated Lp(a) level identified in youth is a risk factor for adult atherosclerotic cardiovascular outcomes but not for increased carotid intima-media thickness.

Predictors of progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis

Understanding the predictors of progression from a first to a second demyelinating event (and formerly, a diagnosis of clinically definite multiple sclerosis) is important clinically. Previous studies have focused on predictors within a single domain, e.g. radiological, lacking prospective data across multiple domains. We tested a comprehensive set of personal, environmental, neurological, MRI and genetic characteristics, considered together, as predictors of progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. Participants were aged 18–59 years and had a first demyelinating event during the study recruitment period (1 November 2003–31 December 2006) for the Ausimmune Study (n = 216) and had follow-up data to 2–3 years post-initial interview. Detailed baseline data were available on a broad range of demographic and environmental factors, MRI, and genetic and viral studies. Follow-up data included confirmation of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (or not) and changes in environmental exposures during the follow-up period. We used multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling to test predictors of, and time to, conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. On review, one participant had an undiagnosed event prior to study recruitment and was excluded (n = 215). Data on progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis were available for 91.2% (n = 196); 77% were diagnosed as clinically definite multiple sclerosis at follow-up. Mean (standard deviation) duration of follow-up was 2.7 (0.7) years. The set of predictors retained in the best predictive model for progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis were as follows: younger age at first demyelinating event [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.87–0.97, per additional year of age); being a smoker at baseline (versus not) (aOR = 2.55, 95% CI 0.85–7.69); lower sun exposure at age 6–18 years (aOR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–1.00, per 100 kJ/m² increment in ultraviolet radiation dose), presence (versus absence) of infratentorial lesions on baseline magnetic resonance imaging (aOR = 7.41, 95% CI 2.08–26.41); and single nucleotide polymorphisms in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B (rs2523393, aOR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.09–0.68, for any G versus A:A), TNFRSF1A (rs1800693, aOR = 5.82, 95% CI 2.10–16.12, for any C versus T:T), and a vitamin D-binding protein gene (rs7041, aOR = 3.76, 95% CI 1.41–9.99, for any A versus C:C). The final model explained 36% of the variance. Predictors of more rapid progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (Cox proportional hazards regression) were similar. Genetic and magnetic resonance imaging characteristics as well as demographic and environmental factors predicted progression, and more rapid progression, from a first demyelinating event to a second event and clinically definite multiple sclerosis.

Development of an intervention to manage knee osteoarthritis risk and symptoms following anterior cruciate ligament injury

INTRODUCTION

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is a risk factor for developing knee osteoarthritis (OA). We developed an intervention to support people manage risk factors for OA.

METHODS

We conducted one-on-one interviews with 20 individuals with OA symptoms 6-15 years post ACL injury and used a nominal group process during a workshop with 40 patients and healthcare professionals (HCPs) to elicit information on the intervention content and delivery characteristics (timing, HCPs, and methods). Interview data were analyzed using content analysis. Nominal group ideas with importance ratings ≥5 of 7 met criteria for inclusion. Results were integrated, considering similarities and differences.

RESULTS

Eight content categories were identified: 1. understanding knee injury and expectations about recovery; 2. understanding OA risk; 3. understanding OA signs and symptoms; 4. managing OA risk; 5. managing knee OA symptoms; 6. information for influencers; 7. credible sources; and, 8. updates on new evidence and treatments. Delivery timing reflected a lifespan approach from time of injury through symptomatic knee OA management. Although multiple media for delivery were identified, introductory face-to-face discussions and opportunity for re-accessing HCPs were critical. All HCPs who treat people with ACL should be familiar with and able to deliver the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

This co-development approach identified that an intervention to support people with ACL injury to limit and manage knee OA requires content embedded within an easily accessible, multi-media delivery model with capacity for check-back with HCPs that is appealing to different age groups and personal preferences over the lifespan post injury.

Prediction of future atherosclerosis in 13 years from young asymptomatic adults

Aim

To compare the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and Ideal Cardiovascular Health Score (ICHS) with a simpler cardiovascular risk score not requiring laboratory tests (the Fuster-BEWAT score, FBS) in predicting the presence and extent of subclinical atherosclerosis 13 years later.

Methods

Data included 894 adults (48% male) who were aged 26–36 years at baseline and 40–50 years at follow-up. The primary outcome was the presence of carotid plaque measured by ultrasound at follow-up. Secondary outcomes were number of arteries affected, plaque thickness and plaque area. All three scores were calculated at both baseline and follow-up.

Results

At follow-up, 86 participants (9.6%) had unilateral carotid plaques and 23 participants (2.6%) had bilateral carotid plaques. At baseline, all three scores were predictive of the presence of carotid plaque at follow-up (PCE odds ratio (OR) = 1.42 [95% CI: 1.19–1.70], ICHS OR=0.87 [0.77–0.99], FBS OR=0.86 [95% CI: 0.77–0.96]) and all secondary outcomes. All baseline scores predicted outcomes more strongly than those at follow-up, and did so independent of any changes over 13 years of follow-up. Similar levels of discriminatory power were found for all three baseline scores in predicting the presence of carotid plaque after 13 years (PCE C-statistic = 0.69 [95% CI: 0.63–0.75], ICHS C-statistic = 0.67 [95% CI: 0.61–0.74] and FBS C-statistic = 0.68 [95% CI: 0.62–0.74])

Conclusions

All baseline scores predicted subclinical atherosclerosis 13 years later. The similar discrimination of the scores highlights the benefit of using FBS as a simpler and more feasible risk score for predicting future cardiovascular risk in low-risk young people.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Genome erosion and evidence for an intracellular niche - exploring the biology of mycoplasmas in Atlantic salmon

Mycoplasmas are the smallest autonomously self-replicating life form on the planet. Members of this bacterial genus are known to parasitise a wide array of metazoans including vertebrates. Whilst much research has been significant targeted at parasitic mammalian mycoplasmas, very little is known about their role in other vertebrates. In the current study, we aim to explore the biology of mycoplasmas in Atlantic Salmon, a species of major significance for aquaculture, including cellular niche, genome size structure and gene content. Using fluorescent in-situ hybridisation (FISH), mycoplasmas were targeted in epithelial tissues across the digestive tract (stomach, pyloric caecum and midgut) from different development stages (eggs, parr, subadult) of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), and we present evidence for an intracellular niche for some of the microbes visualised. Via shotgun metagenomic sequencing, a nearly complete, albeit small, genome (~0.57 MB) as assembled from a farmed Atlantic salmon subadult. Phylogenetic analysis of the recovered genome revealed taxonomic proximity to other salmon derived mycoplasmas, as well as to the human pathogen Mycoplasma penetrans (~1.36 Mb). We annotated coding sequences and identified riboflavin pathway encoding genes and sugar transporters, the former potentially consistent with micronutrient provisioning in salmonid development. Our study provides insights into mucosal adherence, the cellular niche and gene catalog of Mycoplasma in the gut ecosystem of the Atlantic salmon, suggesting a high dependency of this minimalist bacterium on its host. Further study is required to explore and functional role of Mycoplasma in the nutrition and development of its salmonid host.

Factors associated with change and stability in adherence to muscle-strengthening guidelines among young Australian adults: A longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

The 2014 Australian Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour Guidelines (Adults) recommend muscle-strengthening activities ≥2 days/week. This study aimed to identify factors associated with 5-year change and stability in adherence to these guidelines.

DESIGN

Two adult follow-ups of the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health (CDAH) Study. Participants (n = 1510) were 26-36 years (CDAH-1, 2004-06) and 31-41 years (CDAH-2, 2009-11).

METHODS

Information on muscle-strengthening activities, sociodemographics, health, physical activity and sedentary behaviour was collected. Participants reporting muscle-strengthening activities ≥2 days/week 'met guidelines', with change and stability categorised as 'persistent adherence', 'increasing adherence', 'decreasing adherence' and 'persistent non-adherence'. Differences in sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors were analysed using log multinomial regression.

RESULTS

Between 15-21% of women (CDAH-1: 14.5%, 95% confidence interval = 12.5-16.9; CDAH-2: 20.7%, 95% confidence interval = 18.3-23.4) and ~21% of men (CDAH-1: 22.2%, 95% confidence interval = 19.0-26.0; CDAH-2: 21.0%, 95% confidence interval = 17.8-24.7) met muscle-strengthening guidelines, but only 8.5% (95% confidence interval = 7.2-10.1) of participants were persistently adherent. Remaining in or moving from a major city, CDAH-1 weight status, cumulative self-rated health and vigorous physical activity were positively associated with persistent adherence (relative risk range = 1.51-3.92), while female gender, becoming partnered and having children at any timepoint were negatively associated with persistent adherence (relative risk range = 0.38-0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence - particularly persistent adherence - to muscle-strengthening guidelines in this sample was low. Gender, marital status, weight status, BMI, self-rated health, urban-rural status, parental status, physical activity and sedentary behaviour were associated with adherence, and should be considered in intervention development to maximise effectiveness.

Associations of childhood adiposity with menstrual irregularity and polycystic ovary syndrome in adulthood: the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study and the Bogalusa Heart Study

STUDY QUESTION

Is high adiposity in childhood associated with menstrual irregularity and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in later life?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Overall, greater childhood BMI was associated with menstrual irregularity, and greater childhood BMI and waist/height ratio (WHtR) in white but not black participants were associated with PCOS in adulthood.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Increased childhood BMI has been associated with irregular menstrual cycles and PCOS symptoms in adulthood in two longitudinal population-based studies, but no study has reported on associations with childhood abdominal obesity. Few studies have investigated whether there are racial differences in the associations of adiposity with PCOS though there has been some suggestion that associations with high BMI may be stronger in white girls than in black girls.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The study included 1516 participants (aged 26-41 years) from the Australian Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study (CDAH) and 1247 participants (aged 26-57 years) from the biracial USA Babies substudy of the Bogalusa Heart Study (BBS) who were aged 7-15 years at baseline. At follow-up, questions were asked about menstruation (current for CDAH or before age 40 years for BBS), ever having had a diagnosis of PCOS and symptoms of PCOS.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

In CDAH, a single childhood visit was conducted in 1985. In BBS, multiple childhood visits occurred from 1973 to 2000 and race was reported (59% white; 41% black). In childhood, overweight and obesity were defined by international age-sex-specific standards for BMI and WHtR was considered as an indicator of abdominal obesity. Multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression estimated relative risks (RRs) adjusting for childhood age, highest parental and own education and age at menarche.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The prevalence of childhood obesity was 1.1% in CDAH and 7.5% in BBS. At follow-up, menstrual irregularity was reported by 16.7% of CDAH and 24.5% of BBS participants. The prevalence of PCOS was 7.4% in CDAH and 8.0% in BBS participants. In CDAH, childhood obesity was associated with menstrual irregularity (RR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.63-4.96) and PCOS (RR = 4.05, 95% CI: 1.10-14.83) in adulthood. With each 0.01 unit increase in childhood WHtR there was a 6% (95% CI: 1-11%) greater likelihood of PCOS. Overall, in BBS, childhood obesity was associated with increased risk of menstrual irregularity (RR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.08-1.92) in adulthood. Significant interaction effects between race and childhood adiposity were detected in associations with PCOS. In BBS white participants, childhood obesity was associated with PCOS (RR = 2.93, 95% CI: 1.65-5.22) and a 0.01 unit increase in childhood WHtR was associated with an 11% (95% CI: 5-17%) greater likelihood of PCOS in adulthood. In BBS black participants, no statistically significant associations of childhood adiposity measures with PCOS were observed.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The classification of menstrual irregularity and PCOS was based on self-report by questionnaire, which may have led to misclassification of these outcomes. However, despite the limitations of the study, the prevalence of menstrual irregularity and PCOS in the two cohorts was consistent with the literature. While the study samples at baseline were population-based, loss to follow-up means the generalizability of the findings is uncertain.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Greater childhood adiposity indicates a higher risk of menstrual irregularity and PCOS in adulthood. Whether this is causal or an early indicator of underlying hormonal or metabolic disorders needs clarification. The stronger associations of adiposity with PCOS in white than black participants suggest that there are racial differences in childhood adiposity predisposing to the development of PCOS and other environmental or genetic factors are also important.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The CDAH study was supported by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (grants 211316, 544923 and 1128373). The Bogalusa Heart Study is supported by US National Institutes of Health grants R01HD069587, AG16592, HL121230, HD032194 and P50HL015103. No competing interests existed.

An eating pattern characterised by skipped or delayed breakfast is associated with mood disorders among an Australian adult cohort

BACKGROUND

Meal timing may influence food choices, neurobiology and psychological states. Our exploratory study examined if time-of-day eating patterns were associated with mood disorders among adults.

METHODS

During 2004-2006 (age 26-36 years) and 2009-2011 (follow-up, age 31-41 years), N = 1304 participants reported 24-h food and beverage intake. Time-of-day eating patterns were derived by principal components analysis. At follow-up, the Composite International Diagnostic Interview measured lifetime mood disorder. Log binomial and adjacent categories log-link regression were used to examine bidirectional associations between eating patterns and mood disorder. Covariates included sex, age, marital status, social support, education, work schedule, body mass index and smoking.

RESULTS

Three patterns were derived at each time-point: Grazing (intake spread across the day), Traditional (highest intakes reflected breakfast, lunch and dinner), and Late (skipped/delayed breakfast with higher evening intakes). Compared to those in the lowest third of the respective pattern at baseline and follow-up, during the 5-year follow-up, those in the highest third of the Late pattern at both time-points had a higher prevalence of mood disorder [prevalence ratio (PR) = 2.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-3.48], and those in the highest third of the Traditional pattern at both time-points had a lower prevalence of first onset mood disorder (PR = 0.31; 95% CI 0.11-0.87). Participants who experienced a mood disorder during follow-up had a 1.07 higher relative risk of being in a higher Late pattern score category at follow-up than those without mood disorder (95% CI 1.00-1.14).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-traditional eating patterns, particularly skipped or delayed breakfast, may be associated with mood disorders.

Childhood BMI and Fasting Glucose and Insulin Predict Adult Type 2 Diabetes: The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To examine childhood BMI, fasting glucose, and insulin in relation to incident adult type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium. Data included childhood (age 3-19 years) measurements obtained during the 1970s-1990s; a health questionnaire, including self-report of adult T2DM (occurrence age, medication use) obtained at mean age 40 years; and a medical diagnosis registry (Finland).

RESULTS

The sample included 6,738 participants. Of these, 436 (6.5%) reported onset of T2DM between ages 20 and 59 (mean 40.8) years, and 86% of them reported use of a confirmed antidiabetic medication. BMI and glucose (age and sex standardized) were associated with incident T2DM after adjustment for cohort, country, sex, race, age, and calendar year of measurement. Increasing levels of childhood BMI and glucose were related to an incrementally increased risk of T2DM beginning at age 30 years, beginning at cut points <95th percentile for BMI and <100 mg/dL for glucose. Insulin was positively associated with adult T2DM after adjustment for BMI and glucose and added to T2DM discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood BMI and glucose are predictors of adult T2DM at levels previously considered to be within the normal range. These easy-to-apply measurements are appealing from a clinical perspective. Fasting insulin has the potential to be an additional predictor.

Youth diet quality and hazard of mood disorder in adolescence and adulthood among an Australian cohort

BACKGROUND

Prospective studies on youth diet and mood disorders outcomes are limited. We examined if youth diet quality was associated with mood disorder onset over a 25-year follow-up period.

METHODS

In 1985, Australian participants (aged 10-15 years) completed a 24-hour food record. A validated 100-point Dietary Guidelines Index (DGI) assessed diet quality. In 2009-11, 1005 participants (aged 33-41 years) completed the lifetime Composite International Diagnostic Interview for age of first DSM-IV defined mood disorder (depression or dysthymia). Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazard of mood disorder during the 25-year follow-up according to baseline DGI score. Sensitivity analyses censored the study at 5, 10, and 15 years after baseline and used log binomial regression to estimate relative risk (RR). Covariates included baseline negative affect, BMI, academic performance, smoking, breakfast eating, physical activity, and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

The mean(SD) youth DGI score was 45.0(11.5). A 10-point higher DGI was not associated with hazard of mood disorder onset over the 25-year follow-up (Hazard Ratio (HR):1.00; 95% Confidence Interval (CI):0.89-1.13). The only indication that higher DGI might be associated with lower risk of mood disorder was within the first 5 years after baseline and this was not statistically significant (RR=0.85; 95% CI:0.60-1.18).

LIMITATIONS

Loss-to-follow-up. A single 24-hour food record may not represent usual diet.

CONCLUSION

Youth diet did not predict mood disorders in adulthood. The suggestions of a lower risk of mood disorder during late adolescence highlights that further prospective studies are needed.

Associations of Breastfeeding, Maternal Smoking, and Birth Weight With Bone Density and Microarchitecture in Young Adulthood: a 25-Year Birth-Cohort Study

We have found that early-life exposures are associated with areal bone mineral density (aBMD) at ages 8 and 16 years. This study aimed to assess whether these associations persist into young adulthood when peak bone mass (PBM) is achieved and extend this analysis to microarchitecture. Participants were followed from perinatal period to 25 years old (n = 201). Outcomes were total body, spine, and hip aBMD (by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry [DXA]), and cortical and trabecular bone measures at the distal radius and tibia (by high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography [HRpQCT]). Early-life exposures including breastfeeding, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and birth weight. Sex, weight, height, vegetables, fruit and calcium intake at age 25 years were regarded as potential confounders in the analysis. There were significant interactions between period of gestation and early-life exposures for bone measures, so all analyses were stratified by period of gestation. Breastfeeding was beneficially associated with hip and total body aBMD, total, cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD), cortical thickness, porosity, trabecular number (Tb.N), separation (Tb.Sp), and bone volume fraction (Tb.BV/TV) at radius and/or tibia at age 25 years in participants born prematurely (β ranged from -0.92 to 0.94), but there were no associations in those born at term. Maternal smoking had no association with any DXA/HRpQCT measures in those born prematurely but was detrimentally associated with inner transitional zone porosity and Tb.N (β = 0.40 and β = -0.37, respectively) in those full-term participants. Associations of birth weight with bone measures did not persist after adjustment for weight gain since birth. Breastfeeding was associated with a lower risk of lower limb fractures and maternal smoking had a deleterious association with upper limb fractures. In conclusion, breastfeeding and maternal smoking may have effects on peak bone microarchitecture whereas the association with birth weight is countered by subsequent growth. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Associations of retinal microvascular caliber with large arterial function and structure: A population-based study of 11 to 12 year-olds and midlife adults

OBJECTIVE

We examined associations between retinal microvascular and large arterial phenotypes to explore relationships between the micro- and macro-vasculature in childhood and midlife.

METHODS

Participants were 1288 children (11-12 years, 50.9% female) and 1264 adults (mean age 44 years, 87.6% female) in a cross-sectional population-based study. Exposures were retinal arteriolar and venular caliber quantified from retinal images. Outcomes included arterial function (pulse wave velocity; carotid arterial elasticity) and structure (carotid intima-media thickness). Multivariable regression models were performed adjusting for age, sex, and family socioeconomic position.

RESULTS

In children, one standard deviation wider arteriolar caliber was associated with slower pulse wave velocity (-0.15 SD, 95% CI -0.21, -0.09) and higher elasticity (0.13 SD, 95% CI 0.06, 0.20); per SD wider venular caliber was associated with faster pulse wave velocity (0.09 SD, 95% CI 0.03, 0.15) and lower elasticity (-0.07 SD, 95% CI -0.13, -0.01). The size of adult associations was approximately double. Wider arteriolar caliber was associated with smaller carotid intima-media thickness (-0.09 SD, 95% CI -0.16, -0.03) in adults but not children. Venular caliber and carotid intima-media thickness showed little evidence of association.

CONCLUSIONS

Narrower retinal arterioles and wider venules are associated with large arterial function as early as mid-childhood. Associations strengthen by midlife and also extend to arterial structure, although effect sizes remain small.

Do body mass index and waist-to-height ratio over the preceding decade predict retinal microvasculature in 11-12 year olds and midlife adults?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Microvascular changes may contribute to obesity-associated cardiovascular disease. We examined whether body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) (1) at multiple earlier time points and (2) decade-long trajectories predicted retinal microvascular parameters in mid-childhood/adulthood.

METHODS

Participants/design: 1288 11-12 year olds (51% girls) and 1264 parents (87% mothers) in the population-based Child Health CheckPoint (CheckPoint) module within the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). LSAC exposure measures: biennial BMI z-score and WHtR for children at five time points from age 2-3 to 10-11 years and self-reported parent BMI at six time points from child age 0-1 years to 10-11 years. CheckPoint outcome measures: retinal arteriolar and venular caliber.

ANALYSES

BMI/WHtR trajectories were identified by group-based trajectory modeling; linear regression models estimated associations between BMI/WHtR at each time point/trajectories and later retinal vascular caliber, adjusted for age, sex, and family socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

In time point analyses, higher child BMI/WHtR from age 4 to 5 years was associated with narrower arteriolar caliber at the age of 11-12 years, but not venular caliber. For example, each standard deviation higher in BMI z-score at 4-5 years was associated with narrower arteriolar caliber at 11-12 years (standardized mean difference (SMD): -0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.10 to 0.01); by 10-11 years, associations had doubled to -0.10 (95% CI: -0.16 to -0.05). In adults, these finding were similar, except the magnitude of BMI and arteriolar associations were similar across all time points (SMD: -0.11 to -0.13). In child and adult BMI trajectory analyses, less favorable trajectories predicted narrower arteriolar (p-trend < 0.05), but not venular (p-trend > 0.1), caliber. Compared with those in the average BMI trajectory, SMDs in arterial caliber for children and adults in the highest trajectory were -0.25 (95% CI: -0.44 to -0.07) and -0.42 (95% CI: -0.73 to -0.10), respectively. Venular caliber showed late associations with child WHtR, but not with BMI in children or adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations of decade-long high BMI trajectories with narrowed retinal arteriolar caliber emerge in children, and are clearly evident by midlife. Adiposity appears to exert its early adverse life course impacts on the microcirculation more via arteriolar than venular mechanisms.

Childhood infections, vaccinations, and tonsillectomy and risk of first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination in the Ausimmune Study

BACKGROUND

The association between childhood vaccinations and infections and risk of multiple sclerosis is unclear; few studies have considered age at vaccination/infection.

OBJECTIVE

To explore age-related associations between childhood vaccinations, infection and tonsillectomy and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination.

METHODS

Data on case (n = 275, 76.6% female; mean age 38.6 years) and age- and sex-matched control (n = 529) participants in an incident population-based case-control study included self-reported age at time of childhood vaccinations, infections, and tonsillectomy. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Poliomyelitis vaccination prior to school-age was associated with increased risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (AOR = 2.60, 95%CI 1.02-6.68), based on a very small unvaccinated reference group. Late (11-15 years) rubella vaccination (compared to none) was associated with lower odds of being a case (AOR = 0.47, 95%CI 0.27-0.83). Past infectious mononucleosis at 11-15 years (AOR = 2.84, 95%CI 1.0-7.57) and 16-20 years (AOR = 1.92, 95%CI 1.12-3.27) or tonsillectomy in adolescence (11-15 years: AOR = 2.45, 95%CI 1.12-5.35), including after adjustment for IM, were associated with increased risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination.

CONCLUSIONS

Age at vaccination, infection or tonsillectomy may alter the risk of subsequent CNS demyelination. Failing to account for age effects may explain inconsistencies in past findings.

1447Childhood risk factors and cardiovascular disease outcomes in adulthood. Preliminary findings from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium

Background

Atherosclerosis develops decades before clinical cardiovascular disease (cCVD) occurs. Longitudinally, childhood risk factors predict adult pre-clinical atherosclerosis. There is currently no evidence directly linking childhood risk factors to cCVD.

Purpose

To provide the first direct evidence of any association between known risk factors for CVD when measured in childhood and adult CVD incidence and death.

Methods

Using i3C Consortium data, we linked childhood risk factors to adult cCVD. cCVD events were ascertained by participant re-contact in the US and Australia, medically adjudicated hospital records; and using the Finnish national health registry. Of 16,964 adult participants (mean age 49 years) examined during ages 3–19, 201 people with any cCVD event (70% coronary artery, 25% cerebrovascular, and 5% peripheral artery disease) have been determined. The analysis included Cox proportional hazard models. Each model was adjusted for childhood age, age at followup, sex and cohort/race. Continuous childhood variables were z-scored for each participant's last repeated measure during childhood.

Results

Childhood body mass index (BMI), serum total cholesterol (TC) and triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure were positively associated with adult cCVD events (P<0.0001). Smoking in childhood was associated with nearly 50% increased risk of adult cCVD (P=0.08). BMI; TC remained significant in the simultaneous risk factor model. The adjudication pipeline suggests that over 500 hospitalized cCVD events will be found on completion. Regression using the full set of imputed events yielded similar findings. Analysis of deaths is in process.

Childhood risk factor link to adult CVD Childhood risk variable Single risk factors models Simultaneous risk factor model n cCVD events/N at risk Hazard ratio (95% Confidence limits) p n cCVD events/N at risk Hazard ratio (95% Confidence limits) p Body Mass Index 201/16964 1.52 (1.33–1.73) <0.0001 142/11124 1.37 (1.14–1.64) 0.0008 Total cholesterol 191/13778 1.32 (1.14–1.52) 0.0001 " 1.21 (1.02–1.43) 0.03 Triglycerides 191/13654 1.17 (1.04–1.33) 0.01 " 1.04 (0.88–1.24) 0.6 Systolic blood pressure 190/14883 1.28 (1.11–1.48) 0.0007 " 1.18 (0.99–1.42) 0.07 Regular smoking ≥1/day 151/13436 1.44 (0.96–2.16) 0.08 " 1.43 (0.94–2.17) 0.10 Hazard ratios = increased risk per one standard deviation increase in continuous risk variables. E.g. every ∼0.9 mmol/L or ∼33 mg/dL increase in childhood total cholesterol is associated with a ∼32% and 21% increase in adult CVD risk in single and simultaneous risk factor models respectively. “Simultaneous risk factor model” recognizes that the risk factors are causally connected.

Conclusion

Childhood CVD risk factors predicts adult cCVD with implications for primordial CVD prevention.

Acknowledgement/Funding

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI)

Socioeconomic position over the life course from childhood and smoking status in mid-adulthood: results from a 25-year follow-up study

Background

It remains unclear how life course socioeconomic position (SEP) variations impact later smoking status. We aimed to investigate the associations using a novel methodology – a structured regression framework and to explore the potential underlying mechanisms.

Methods

Data were from an Australian national cohort (n = 1489). SEP was measured in childhood (aged 7–15 years), young- (aged 26–36 years) and mid-adulthood (aged 31–41 years), including highest parental occupation in childhood and self-occupation in young- and mid-adulthood. Smoking status was self-reported in mid-adulthood. Four smoking-related variables in childhood including exposure to parental smoking, smoking experimentation, self-rated importance to be a non-smoker and intention to smoke were tested as potential mediators. A structured life course modelling approach was used to select the best-fit life course model(s). The log multinomial model was used to estimate the smoking risk in mid-adulthood with never smokers as the excluded category.

Results

63.6% of participants were classified as stable non-manual occupation across the life course from childhood. The sensitive period and the accumulation model described the data equally as well as the saturated model. In the sensitive period model, compared to the non-manual group, those who had highest parental occupation of manual had a 21% lower risk of being former smokers and a 32% greater risk of being current smokers in mid-adulthood, and those who were occupied manually in mid-adulthood reported a 55% greater risk of being current smokers in mid-adulthood. In the accumulation model, compared to those who consistently reported non-manual occupations across the life course, those with manual occupations for longer had higher risk of being current smokers in mid-adulthood, with a 43% risk increase per time point in a manual occupation. Exposure to parental smoking and intention to smoke during childhood explained up to 40.2% of the excess risk of being current smokers in mid-adulthood associated with manual occupations in the sensitive period and the accumulation model.

Conclusions

Childhood, young- and mid-adulthood are all important, but SEP in childhood and mid-adulthood may be of more importance in determining mid-adulthood smoking status. Exposure to parental smoking and intention to smoke in childhood seems to moderately mediate the associations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6483-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) consortium outcomes study of childhood cardiovascular risk factors and adult cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: Design and recruitment

Although it is widely thought that childhood levels of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors are related to adult CV disease, longitudinal data directly linking the two are lacking. This paper describes the design and organization of the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort Consortium Outcomes Study (i3C Outcomes), the first longitudinal cohort study designed to locate adults with detailed, repeated, childhood biological, physical, and socioeconomic measurements and a harmonized database. I3C Outcomes uses a Heart Health Survey (HHS) to obtain information on adult CV endpoints, using mail, email, telephone, and clinic visits in the United States (U.S.) and Australia and a national health database in Finland. Microsoft Access, REsearch Data Capture (REDCap) (U.S.), LimeSurvey (Australia), and Medidata™ Rave data systems are used to collect, transfer and organize data. Self-reported CV events are adjudicated via hospital and doctor-released medical records. After the first two study years, participants (N = 10,968) were more likely to be female (56% vs. 48%), non-Hispanic white (90% vs. 80%), and older (10.4 ± 3.8 years vs. 9.4 ± 3.3 years) at their initial childhood study visit than the currently non-recruited cohort members. Over 48% of cohort members seen during both adulthood and childhood have been found and recruited, to date, vs. 5% of those not seen since childhood. Self-reported prevalences were 0.7% Type 1 Diabetes, 7.5% Type 2 Diabetes, 33% hypertension, and 12.8% CV event. 32% of CV events were judged to be true. I3C Outcomes is uniquely able to establish evidence-based guidelines for child health care and to clarify relations to adult CV disease.

The association between higher maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index and increased birth weight, adiposity and inflammation in the newborn

BACKGROUND

Excess adiposity and adiposity-related inflammation are known risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adults; however, little is known regarding the determinants of adiposity-related inflammation at birth.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and newborn adiposity and inflammation.

METHODS

Paired maternal (28-week gestation) and infant (umbilical cord) blood samples were collected from a population-derived birth cohort (Barwon Infant Study, n = 1074). Data on maternal comorbidities and infant birth anthropomorphic measures were compiled, and infant aortic intima-media thickness was measured by trans-abdominal ultrasound. In a selected subgroup of term infants (n = 161), matched maternal and cord lipids, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and maternal soluble CD14 were measured. Analysis was completed by using pairwise correlation and linear regression. Because of their non-normal distribution, pathology blood measures were log transformed prior to analysis.

RESULTS

Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was positively associated with increased birth weight (mean difference 17.8 g per kg m^-2 , 95% CI 6.6 to 28.9; p = 0.002), newborn mean skin-fold thickness (mean difference 0.1 mm per kg m^-2 , 95% CI 0.0 to 0.1; p < 0.001) and cord blood hsCRP (mean difference of 4.2% increase in hsCRP per kg m^-2 increase in pre-pregnancy BMI, 95% CI 0.6 to 7.7%, p = 0.02), but not cord blood soluble CD14. Inclusion of maternal hsCRP as a covariate attenuated the associations between pre-pregnancy BMI and both newborn skin-fold thickness and cord blood hsCRP.

CONCLUSION

Higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI is associated with increased newborn adiposity and inflammation. These associations may be partially mediated by maternal inflammation during pregnancy.