46 Promoting Advance Care Planning of Patients with Parkinsonism in the Community

Introduction

NICE guideline recommends that all patients with Parkinson’s disease should be reviewed every 6–12 months and offered opportunities to discuss Advanced Care Planning (ACP) (1, 2). There is evidence demonstrating that Advanced Care Plans results in shorter length of stay in the last year of life and lower hospital costs (2, 3). A local baseline audit showed that Advanced Care Planning was not performed adequately.

Methods

A local baseline audit on community care home patients with Parkinsonism was completed in February 2018. A community-based Parkinson’s clinic was commenced in June 2018. Patients with parkinsonism who were unable to attend hospital clinics due to underlying frailty, neuropsychiatry and physical issues, were reviewed. At each visit, advice was provided on medicines management and there were discussions around Advance Care Planning.

A re-audit was completed in August 2019. Patient’s Electronic Patient Records were scrutinised to evaluate progress and identify those who had died. Data was analysed using Microsoft Excel.

Results

The initiative contributed directly to end of life care in 7/17 patients. Parkinson’s disease medications were rationalised in 11/17 (64.70%). 14/17 (82.35%) had a community-based Do Not Resuscitate order completed.

Conclusions

The community Parkinson’s clinic service promoted Advance Care Planning in patients with Parkinsonism. This service provides specialist input in frail older people with Parkinsonism who were unable to attend hospital clinic, promoting end of life choices around where they wished to die and avoiding unnecessary hospitalisation in the final stages of their life.

Coronary computed tomography versus stress echocardiography-guided management of stable chest pain patients: a propensity matched analysis

Background

Recent recommendations by national and international societies advocate the use of coronary computed tomography (CCT) as the first-line test for the assessment of low-risk patients with suspected stable angina. However limited real-life data exist regarding its relative clinical value versus stress echocardiography (SE)-guided management.

Purpose

We aimed to assess in a real-life setting the clinical value of stress echocardiography (SE)-guided versus CCT-guided management in patients presenting with stable chest pain and no prior history of coronary artery disease (CAD).

Methods

We compared the relative feasibility, efficacy and the proportion of patients undergoing downstream testing including revascularisation and their impact on outcome (mortality and myocardial infarction) when CCT versus SE were used as the first line test for the assessment of stable chest pain.

Of the patients who underwent CCT (N=2192) or SE (N=2081) between October 2013 and October 2014 only those with suspected stable angina and without previous CAD were selected. The population was propensity-matched (total 1980 patients-990 patients each group) to account for differences in the baseline cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

The mean age of the population was 59±13.2 years and 949 (47.9%) patients were male. Inconclusive tests were 6% versus 3% (p<0.005) in CCT versus SE. Severe (>70%) luminal stenosis on CCT and inducible ischemia on SE detected obstructive CAD by invasive coronary angiography in 63% versus 57% patients (p=0.33). Over the entire follow-up period (median 717 (IQR 93–1069) days) significantly more patients underwent invasive coronary angiography (21.5% versus 7.3%, p<0.005) and revascularisation (33.5% versus 3.5%, p<0.005) respectively in the CCT versus the SE group. Following their initial assessment 336 (33.9%) patients in the CCT and 86 (8.7%) in the SE group underwent further functional testing (SE, stress cardiac MRI, exercise electrocardiography) (p<0.005) (Figure 1A). There was no difference in all-cause mortality (p=0.26) or death and myocardial infarction (p=0.16) between the two groups (Figure 1B).

Conclusions

SE when used for the assessment of patients with stable angina and no prior CAD resulted in more conclusive tests, similar detection of obstructive CAD, less overall invasive coronary angiography and revascularization and less subsequent functional tests compared with CCT.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Functional Outcomes After Robotic Radical Cystectomy with Intracorporeal Diversion: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Robotic assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) is considered a safe and feasible technique in patients with bladder cancer who are candidates for curative treatment. Intracorporeal urinary diversions (ICUD) represents one step forward into moving to an utterly minimal invasive procedure with the thought that it may improve patients outcomes and time to recovery after the surgical procedure. Overall, RARC has shown to provide similar oncological outcomes as other procedures. The impact of such approach in continence and sexual function of the patients is an important part of an integral health care of this subset of patients. OBJECTIVE: To describe the functional outcomes of RARC with ICUD across different manuscript evaluating this field. METHODS: A systematic literature search related to functional outcomes and diversion technique in RARC with ICUD, was performed on June 2019 using PubMed RESULTS: Out of 22 manuscripts evaluated we included 11 in our analysis. Although the functional outcomes in the studies we have included in this analysis seem to be adequate and consistent, the evidence is poor when comparing RARC with ICUD versus other approaches CONCLUSION: We consider that studies with better designs aiming to elucidate the impact of RARC with ICUD in the quality of life of the patients may improve the quality of the outcomes and would help to draw stronger conclusions

Blood biomarkers for memory: toward early detection of risk for Alzheimer disease, pharmacogenomics, and repurposed drugs

Short-term memory dysfunction is a key early feature of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Psychiatric patients may be at higher risk for memory dysfunction and subsequent AD due to the negative effects of stress and depression on the brain. We carried out longitudinal within-subject studies in male and female psychiatric patients to discover blood gene expression biomarkers that track short term memory as measured by the retention measure in the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test. These biomarkers were subsequently prioritized with a convergent functional genomics approach using previous evidence in the field implicating them in AD. The top candidate biomarkers were then tested in an independent cohort for ability to predict state short-term memory, and trait future positive neuropsychological testing for cognitive impairment. The best overall evidence was for a series of new, as well as some previously known genes, which are now newly shown to have functional evidence in humans as blood biomarkers: RAB7A, NPC2, TGFB1, GAP43, ARSB, PER1, GUSB, and MAPT. Additional top blood biomarkers include GSK3B, PTGS2, APOE, BACE1, PSEN1, and TREM2, well known genes implicated in AD by previous brain and genetic studies, in humans and animal models, which serve as reassuring de facto positive controls for our whole-genome gene expression discovery approach. Biological pathway analyses implicate LXR/RXR activation, neuroinflammation, atherosclerosis signaling, and amyloid processing. Co-directionality of expression data provide new mechanistic insights that are consistent with a compensatory/scarring scenario for brain pathological changes. A majority of top biomarkers also have evidence for involvement in other psychiatric disorders, particularly stress, providing a molecular basis for clinical co-morbidity and for stress as an early precipitant/risk factor. Some of them are modulated by existing drugs, such as antidepressants, lithium and omega-3 fatty acids. Other drug and nutraceutical leads were identified through bioinformatic drug repurposing analyses (such as pioglitazone, levonorgestrel, salsolidine, ginkgolide A, and icariin). Our work contributes to the overall pathophysiological understanding of memory disorders and AD. It also opens new avenues for precision medicine- diagnostics (assement of risk) as well as early treatment (pharmacogenomically informed, personalized, and preventive).

What can trauma patients' experiences and perspectives tell us about the perceived quality of trauma care? a qualitative study set within the UK National Health Service

The global drive for improvements in the efficiency and quality of healthcare has led to the development of frameworks to assist in defining and measuring 'good quality care'. However, such frameworks lack a systematic or meaningful definition of what 'good quality care' means from the patients' perspective. The present research provides an in-depth analysis of patients' experiences in a hospital setting from a quality of care perspective. Forty-five adults (aged 16-70) hospitalised in one of four UK NHS trusts following an unintentional injury were interviewed about their experiences of care. The findings show variability in perceived quality of care within the same hospital episode which cannot be meaningfully captured by existing frameworks. The context of trauma care (e.g. distressing nature of injury, patient vulnerability, expectations of hospitalisation and participants' interaction with different service providers) defined the care experience and the value of being 'cared for'. Participants identified some aspects of good and care which related to holistic, person-centred and personalised care beyond the medical needs. Participants discussed the value of being understood, staff thinking of their needs beyond hospitalisation, staff trying 'their best' despite constrains of current care, having their emotional needs recognised and addressed and staff competence. Patients reported also poor quality of care and 'not being cared for' by specific staff groups which they expected to fulfil this role, rushed and unsympathetic care, lack of recognition for emotional impact of injury mapped onto existing quality frameworks e.g. safety, equity, accessibility and patient-centeredness as well as quality of interaction with providers, empathetic care which extended beyond medical needs, coordination of care, and the positivity of care delivery as important dimensions of quality care with implications for their recovery. The findings have implications for quality frameworks and theoretical definitions of quality of care; they demonstrate the importance of patient experience in addition to clinical effectiveness and safety as an essential dimension of quality care. In terms of practice, the findings support the need to incorporate knowledge and training of injured adults' psychological needs, and the value of interaction with professionals as a patient defined dimension of the quality of care.

Towards precision medicine for stress disorders: diagnostic biomarkers and targeted drugs

The biological fingerprint of environmental adversity may be key to understanding health and disease, as it encompasses the damage induced as well as the compensatory reactions of the organism. Metabolic and hormonal changes may be an informative but incomplete window into the underlying biology. We endeavored to identify objective blood gene expression biomarkers for psychological stress, a subjective sensation with biological roots. To quantify the stress perception at a particular moment in time, we used a simple visual analog scale for life stress in psychiatric patients, a high-risk group. Then, using a stepwise discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing in independent cohort design, we were successful in identifying gene expression biomarkers that were predictive of high-stress states and of future psychiatric hospitalizations related to stress, more so when personalized by gender and diagnosis. One of the top biomarkers that survived discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing was FKBP5, a well-known gene involved in stress response, which serves as a de facto reassuring positive control. We also compared our biomarker findings with telomere length (TL), another well-established biological marker of psychological stress and show that newly identified predictive biomarkers such as NUB1, APOL3, MAD1L1, or NKTR are comparable or better state or trait predictors of stress than TL or FKBP5. Over half of the top predictive biomarkers for stress also had prior evidence of involvement in suicide, and the majority of them had evidence in other psychiatric disorders, providing a molecular underpinning for the effects of stress in those disorders. Some of the biomarkers are targets of existing drugs, of potential utility in patient stratification, and pharmacogenomics approaches. Based on our studies and analyses, the biomarkers with the best overall convergent functional evidence (CFE) for involvement in stress were FKBP5, DDX6, B2M, LAIR1, RTN4, and NUB1. Moreover, the biomarker gene expression signatures yielded leads for possible new drug candidates and natural compounds upon bioinformatics drug repurposing analyses, such as calcium folinate and betulin. Our work may lead to improved diagnosis and treatment for stress disorders such as PTSD, that result in decreased quality of life and adverse outcomes, including addictions, violence, and suicide.

Minimal Compared With Standard Monitoring During Sofosbuvir-Based Hepatitis C Treatment: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Oral direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) became government subsidized in Australia in March 2016, bringing the interferon era to a close. The ideal monitoring schedule for patients receiving DAAs is unclear.

Methods

This study is a randomized controlled trial comparing standard with minimal monitoring in adults receiving sofosbuvir-based therapy for HCV genotypes 1 or 3. Exclusion criteria were cirrhosis or predicted poor adherence. Standard monitoring included blood tests and face-to-face clinic visits at treatment weeks 4 and 12 and 12 weeks after treatment completion. Minimal monitoring included a phone call at weeks 4 and 12 and one set of blood tests plus a clinic visit 12 weeks after treatment completion. The coprimary outcomes were as follows: (1) proportion of participants with sustained virological response; (2) staff time spent on patient support; and (3) patient satisfaction on a 10-point Likert scale.

Results

Thirty-six patients were randomized to standard monitoring and 38 to minimal monitoring. Sustained virological response at 12 weeks after the end of treatment was documented in 32 of 36 (89%) in the standard versus 37 of 38 (97%) in the minimal monitoring group. Staff time was nonsignificantly longer in the standard group (median 69 [interquartile range {IQR}, 54–80] versus 52 [IQR, 40–75] minutes). Patient satisfaction scores were not different (mean 9.8 of 10 standard versus 9.6 of 10 minimal group). There was no difference in adverse events or unplanned hospital visits; mean per-patient blood test costs were higher in the standard monitoring group ($432 versus $123, P < .001).

Conclusions

On-treatment monitoring with blood tests and clinic visits may not be necessary during sofosbuvir-based HCV treatment in selected patients.

Substrate Supporting Disc Method for Confirmed Detection of Total Coliforms and E. coli in all Foods: Collaborative Study

The Coli Complete® substrate supporting disc (SSD) method for simultaneous confirmed total coliform count and Escherichia coli determination in all foods was compared with AOAC most probable number (MPN) methods, 966.23 and 966.24. Twenty-nine laboratories participated in this collaborative study in which 6 food types were analyzed. Four food types, raw ground beef, pork sausage, raw liquid milk, and nut meats, were naturally contaminated with coliform bacteria. Two foods, dry egg and fresh frozen vegetables, were seeded with coliforms. Three food types, ground beef, raw liquid milk, and pork sausage, were naturally contaminated with E. coli. Although pork sausage was naturally contaminated, the level was very low (&lt;10/50 g); therefore, additional E. coli were inoculated into 1 lot of this food type. Three food types, nut meats, dry egg, and fresh frozen vegetables, were inoculated with E. coli. For naturally contaminated samples, duplicate determinations were made on 3 separate lots for each food type. For inoculated samples, low, medium, and high contamination levels plus uninoculated control samples were examined in duplicate. Data were analyzed separately for total coliform bacteria and for E. coli. Mean log MPN counts were determined by the SSD method and the appropriate AOAC MPN method. Results were then analyzed for repeatability, reproducibility, and mean log MPN statistical equivalence. Results were statistically equivalent for all total coliform levels in all food types except frozen vegetable and raw nut meat uninoculated control samples and 1 lot of pork sausage where the SSD method produced statistically significant greater numbers. For the E. coli determinations, results were statistically equivalent across all samples and all levels for each food type. The SSD method has been adopted first action by AOAC International for confirmed detection of total coliforms and E. coli in all foods.

Ovulation rates in a stair-step protocol with Letrozole vs clomiphene citrate in patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome

PURPOSE

To compare ovulation rates between Letrozole and Clomiphene Citrate (CC) using a stair-step protocol to achieve ovulation induction in women with Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS).

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort of predominantly Hispanic PCOS women of reproductive age who completed ovulation induction (OI) comparing women who underwent Letrozole stair-step protocol to those who underwent OI with CC stair-step. All women had a diagnosis of PCOS based on the 2003 Rotterdam criteria. For both protocols, sequentially higher doses of Letrozole or CC were given 7 days after the last dose if no dominant follicles were seen on ultrasonography. The primary outcome was ovulation rate (determined by presence of a dominant follicle) between the two treatment groups. Secondary outcomes included time to ovulation, clinical pregnancy rates and side effects.

RESULTS

49 PCOS patients completed a Letrozole stair-step cycle and 43 completed a CC stair-step cycle for OI. Overall, demographics were comparable between both groups. Ovulation rates with the Letrozole stair-step protocol were equivalent to CC stair-step protocol (96% vs 88%, p = 0.17). Although the mean time (days) to ovulation was shorter in the Letrozole group (19.5 vs 23.1, p = 0.027), the pregnancy rates were similar for both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to date that has compared the efficacy of the stair-step protocol in PCOS patients using Letrozole and CC. Both Letrozole and CC can be prescribed in a stair-step fashion. Letrozole stair-step was as efficacious as CC stair-step; patients achieved comparable rates of ovulation and clinical pregnancy. Time to ovulation was shorter in the Letrozole protocol.

Beam Energy and Centrality Dependence of Direct-Photon Emission from Ultrarelativistic Heavy-Ion Collisions

The PHENIX collaboration presents first measurements of low-momentum (0.4<p_{T}<3  GeV/c) direct-photon yields from Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=39 and 62.4 GeV. For both beam energies the direct-photon yields are substantially enhanced with respect to expectations from prompt processes, similar to the yields observed in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200. Analyzing the photon yield as a function of the experimental observable dN_{ch}/dη reveals that the low-momentum (>1  GeV/c) direct-photon yield dN_{γ}^{dir}/dη is a smooth function of dN_{ch}/dη and can be well described as proportional to (dN_{ch}/dη)^{α} with α≈1.25. This scaling behavior holds for a wide range of beam energies at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider, for centrality selected samples, as well as for different A+A collision systems. At a given beam energy, the scaling also holds for high p_{T} (>5  GeV/c), but when results from different collision energies are compared, an additional sqrt[s_{NN}]-dependent multiplicative factor is needed to describe the integrated-direct-photon yield.

Abstract P5-09-01: Racial/ethnic differences in BRCA1/2 and multigene panel testing among young breast cancer patients

Background: Breast cancer (BC) patients diagnosed at age 50 and under are recommended to have germline genetic testing for hereditary BC due to a high likelihood of carrying a pathogenic mutation in a moderate or high penetrance risk gene. Completion of genetic testing among racial/ethnic minorities, particularly multigene panel testing, is understudied. We examined predictors of completion of BRCA1/2 and multigene panel testing among women with early onset BC and assessed racial/ethnic differences in genetic testing completion and results.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1370 BC patients diagnosed at &lt;50 years of age at Columbia University Medical Center (CUMC) from January 2007-December 2016.Data on socio-demographics, clinical factors, and genetic testing completion and results were collected from the medical record. We conducted descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariable logistic regression models.

Results: Our study population had a median age of 44 years (range, 19-50); 44% non-Hispanic white, 24% Hispanic, 13% non-Hispanic black, 10% Asian, 9% other; 61% private insurance, 22% Medicaid, 17% other. Nearly half of the women (N=607; 44.3%) had genetic testing performed. In the multivariable regression model, genetic testing completion was less likely with increasing age at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]=0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.91-0.95) and stage 0 or 4 BC compared to stage 1 (OR=0.67; 95% CI=0.46-0.97 and OR=0.35; 95% CI=0.19-0.64, respectively). Completion of genetic testing was more likely with a family history of BC (OR=5.55; 95% CI=3.92-7.87). Genetic testing completion did not vary by race/ethnicity or insurance coverage. Across all racial/ethnic groups, the frequency of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants identified was 13.0% and 10.5% had at least 1 variant of uncertain significance (VUS). The highest VUS frequency was among Asians (21.2%). The percentage of women undergoing genetic testing increased over time from 18.5% in 2007 and reached a peak of 69.3% in 2015. From 2007 to 2016, the percentage of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants detected increased from 3.4% to 9.1% and the VUS frequency rose from 3.4% to 13.3% with increasing use of panel testing.

Frequency of pathogenic variants and VUS among women ≤ 50 years diagnosed with BC at CUMC (2007-2016) Pathogenic variantsVUSTotal81 (5.9%)74 (5.4%)BRCA144 (3.2%)10 (0.7%)BRCA221 (1.5%)10 (0.7%)ATM3 (0.2%)9 (0.6%)CHEK23 (0.2%)8 (0.5%)Other variants detected in: APC, BARD1, BRIP1, CDH1, CDKN2A, MEN1, MLH1, MRE11A, MSH2, MSH6, MUTYH, NBN, NF1, PALB2, PHOX2B, PMS2, POLE, PTEN, RAD50, RAD51C, SDHA, STK11, TP53

Conclusions and Relevance: Nearly half of the women with early onset BC had genetic testing. We did not observe disparities in genetic testing by race/ethnicity or insurance coverage. Genetic testing completion, as well as the frequency of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants and VUS detection, increased over time as panel testing replaced BRCA1/2 testing. Counseling on the likelihood of obtaining uncertain results should be provided to all patients undergoing hereditary BC genetic testing, particularly to racial/ethnic minorities.

Citation Format: Trivedi MS, Jones T, Jiang X, Underhill ML, Bose S, Silverman T, Chung WK, Kukafka R, Crew KD. Racial/ethnic differences in BRCA1/2 and multigene panel testing among young breast cancer patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-09-01.

P-curve accurately rejects evidence for homeopathic ultramolecular dilutions

Background

P-curve has been proposed as a statistical test of evidential value. The distributions of sets of statistically significant p-values are tested for skewness. P-curves of true effects are right-skewed, with greater density at lower p-values than higher p-values. Analyses of null effects result in a flat or left-skewed distribution. The accuracy of p-curve has not been tested using published research analyses of a null effect. We examined whether p-curve accurately rejects a set of significant p-values obtained for a nonexistent effect.

Methods

Homeopathic ultramolecular dilutions are medicinal preparations with active substances diluted beyond Avogadro's number. Such dilute mixtures are unlikely to contain a single molecule of an active substance. We tested whether p-curve accurately rejects the evidential value of significant results obtained in placebo-controlled clinical trials of homeopathic ultramolecular dilutions.

Results

P-curve accurately rejected the evidential value of significant results obtained in placebo-controlled clinical trials of ultramolecular dilutions. Robustness testing using alternate p-values yielded similar results.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that p-curve can accurately detect when sets of statistically significant results lack evidential value.

Combined Effects of Low-Dose Proton Radiation and Simulated Microgravity on the Mouse Retina and the Hematopoietic System

The purpose of the current study was to characterize the effects of simulated microgravity and radiation-induced changes in retina and retinal vasculature, and to assess the accompanying early changes in immune cells and hematological parameters. To better understand the effects of spaceflight, we used a combination of treatments designed to simulate both the radiation and low-gravity aspects of space conditions. To simulate the broad energy spectrum of a large solar particle event (SPE) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) radiation, male C57BL/6J mice were exposed to whole-body irradiation using fully modulated beams of 150-MeV protons containing particles of energy from 0 to 150 MeV and a uniform dose-vs.-depth profile. The mice were also hindlimb-unloaded (HLU) by tail suspension. Mice were unloaded for 7 days, exposed to 50 cGy, unloaded for an additional 7 days and then sacrificed for tissue isolation at days 4 and 30 after the combined treatments. Increases in the number of apoptotic cells were observed in the endothelial cells of mice that received radiation alone or with HLU compared to controls at both days 4 and 30 (P < 0.05). Endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) levels were significantly elevated in the retina after irradiation only or combined with HLU compared to controls at the 30-day time point (P < 0.05). The most robust changes were observed in the combination group, suggesting a synergistic response to radiation and unloading. For hematopoietic parameters, our analysis indicated the main effects for time and radiation at day 4 after treatments (day 11 postirradiation) (P < 0.05), but a smaller influence of HLU for both white blood cell and lymphocyte counts. The group treated with both radiation and HLU showed greater than 50% reduction in lymphocyte counts compared to controls. Radiation-dependent differences were also noted in specific lymphocyte subpopulations (T, B, natural killer cells). This study shows indications of an early effect of low-dose radiation and spaceflight conditions on retina and immune populations.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, 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Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.