Effect of population breast screening on breast cancer mortality to 2005 in England and Wales: A nested case-control study within a cohort of one million women

Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness of the NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) on breast cancer mortality in England and Wales and to compare findings with a cohort analysis of the same underlying population.

Methods

A nested case-control study within a cohort of 959,738 women in England and Wales aged 49–64 who were eligible for routine NHSBSP screening during 1991–2005. Cases who died from breast cancer in 1991–2005 were matched to controls without breast cancer at the case diagnosis date and alive when the case died. Risk of breast cancer mortality associated with intention to screen (ITS) (7047 cases/28,188 controls) and screening attendance (4707 cases/9413 controls) was examined. Bias was minimised in accordance with currently advocated best practice. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Results were compared with findings from an incidence-based breast cancer mortality cohort analysis.

Results

ITS was associated with a 21% breast cancer mortality reduction (OR = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71–0.88, P < 0.001). Attendance ≤5 years before diagnosis was associated with a 47% reduction in breast cancer mortality after self-selection correction (OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.46–0.62, P < 0.001). Breast cancer mortality reduction associated with ITS was 21% in both the case-control and cohort analyses, but the impact of attendance was marginally greater in the case-control analysis (36% vs. 32%).

Conclusions

Case-control studies designed and analysed according to current best practice guidelines offer an effective means of evaluating population breast screening.

Ultrasound Tomography Evaluation of Breast Density: A Comparison With Noncontrast Magnetic Resonance Imaging

OBJECTIVES

Ultrasound tomography (UST) is an emerging whole-breast 3-dimensional imaging technique that obtains quantitative tomograms of speed of sound of the entire breast. The imaged parameter is the speed of sound which is used as a surrogate measure of density at each voxel and holds promise as a method to evaluate breast density without ionizing radiation. This study evaluated the technique of UST and compared whole-breast volume averaged speed of sound (VASS) with MR percent water content from noncontrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty-three healthy female volunteers (median age, 40 years; range, 29-59 years) underwent bilateral breast UST and MRI using a 2-point Dixon technique. Reproducibility of VASS was evaluated using Bland-Altman analysis. Volume averaged speed of sound and MR percent water were evaluated and compared using Pearson correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

The mean ± standard deviation VASS measurement was 1463 ± 29 m s (range, 1434-1542 m s). There was high similarity between right (1464 ± 30 m s) and left (1462 ± 28 m s) breasts (P = 0.113) (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.98). Mean MR percent water content was 35.7% ± 14.7% (range, 13.2%-75.3%), with small but significant differences between right and left breasts (36.3% ± 14.9% and 35.1% ± 14.7%, respectively; P = 0.004). There was a very strong correlation between VASS and MR percent water density (r = 0.96, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Ultrasound tomography holds promise as a reliable and reproducible 3-dimensional technique to provide a surrogate measure of breast density and correlates strongly with MR percent water content.

Cancer Risks in Patients Treated With Growth Hormone in Childhood: The SAGhE European Cohort Study

CONTEXT

Growth hormone (GH) is prescribed for an increasing range of indications, but there has been concern that it might raise cancer risk. Published data are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To examine cancer risks in relation to GH treatment.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Population-based.

PATIENTS

Cohort of 23,984 patients treated with recombinant human GH (r-hGH) in eight European countries since this treatment was first used in 1984. Cancer expectations from country-specific national population statistics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cancer incidence and cancer mortality.

RESULTS

Incidence and mortality risks in the cohort were raised for several cancer sites, largely consequent on second primary malignancies in patients given r-hGH after cancer treatment. There was no clear raised risk in patients with growth failure without other major disease. Only for bone and bladder cancers was incidence significantly raised in GH-treated patients without previous cancer. Cancer risk was unrelated to duration or cumulative dose of r-hGH treatment, but for patients treated after previous cancer, cancer mortality risk increased significantly with increasing daily r-hGH dose (P trend < 0.001). Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) incidence increased significantly with longer follow-up (P trend = 0.001 for patients overall and 0.002 for patients without previous cancer).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results do not generally support a carcinogenic effect of r-hGH, but the unexplained trend in cancer mortality risk in relation to GH dose in patients with previous cancer, and the indication of possible effects on bone cancer, bladder cancer, and HL risks, need further investigation.

Identification of 12 new susceptibility loci for different histotypes of epithelial ovarian cancer

To identify common alleles associated with different histotypes of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), we pooled data from multiple genome-wide genotyping projects totaling 25,509 EOC cases and 40,941 controls. We identified nine new susceptibility loci for different EOC histotypes: six for serous EOC histotypes (3q28, 4q32.3, 8q21.11, 10q24.33, 18q11.2 and 22q12.1), two for mucinous EOC (3q22.3 and 9q31.1) and one for endometrioid EOC (5q12.3). We then performed meta-analysis on the results for high-grade serous ovarian cancer with the results from analysis of 31,448 BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, including 3,887 mutation carriers with EOC. This identified three additional susceptibility loci at 2q13, 8q24.1 and 12q24.31. Integrated analyses of genes and regulatory biofeatures at each locus predicted candidate susceptibility genes, including OBFC1, a new candidate susceptibility gene for low-grade and borderline serous EOC.

Genome-wide association analysis of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma identifies pleiotropic risk loci

B-cell malignancies (BCM) originate from the same cell of origin, but at different maturation stages and have distinct clinical phenotypes. Although genetic risk variants for individual BCMs have been identified, an agnostic, genome-wide search for shared genetic susceptibility has not been performed. We explored genome-wide association studies of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL, N = 1,842), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL, N = 1,465) and multiple myeloma (MM, N = 3,790). We identified a novel pleiotropic risk locus at 3q22.2 (NCK1, rs11715604, P = 1.60 × 10-9) with opposing effects between CLL (P = 1.97 × 10-8) and HL (P = 3.31 × 10-3). Eight established non-HLA risk loci showed pleiotropic associations. Within the HLA region, Ser37 + Phe37 in HLA-DRB1 (P = 1.84 × 10-12) was associated with increased CLL and HL risk (P = 4.68 × 10-12), and reduced MM risk (P = 1.12 × 10-2), and Gly70 in HLA-DQB1 (P = 3.15 × 10-10) showed opposing effects between CLL (P = 3.52 × 10-3) and HL (P = 3.41 × 10-9). By integrating eQTL, Hi-C and ChIP-seq data, we show that the pleiotropic risk loci are enriched for B-cell regulatory elements, as well as an over-representation of binding of key B-cell transcription factors. These data identify shared biological pathways influencing the development of CLL, HL and MM. The identification of these risk loci furthers our understanding of the aetiological basis of BCMs.

Effect of population breast screening on breast cancer mortality up to 2005 in England and Wales: an individual-level cohort study

BACKGROUND

Population breast screening has been implemented in the UK for over 25 years, but the size of benefit attributable to such programmes remains controversial. We have conducted the first individual-based cohort evaluation of population breast screening in the UK, to estimate the impact of the NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) on breast cancer mortality.

METHODS

We followed 988 090 women aged 49-64 years in 1991 resident in England and Wales, who because of the staggered implementation of the NHSBSP, included both invited subjects and an uninvited control group. Individual-level breast screening histories were linked to individual-level mortality and breast cancer incidence data from national registers. Risk of death from breast cancer was investigated by incidence-based mortality analyses in relation to intention to screen and first round attendance. Overdiagnosis of breast cancer following a single screening round was also investigated.

RESULTS

Invitation to NHSBSP screening was associated with a reduction in breast cancer mortality in 1991-2005 of 21% (RR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84, P<0·001) after adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and lead-time. Breast cancer deaths among first invitation attenders were 46% lower than among non-attenders (RR=0.54, 95% CI: 0.51-0·57, P<0.001) and 32% lower following adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and self-selection bias (RR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.63-0·73, P<0.001). There was little evidence of overdiagnosis associated with invitation to first screen.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate a substantial, statistically significant reduction in breast cancer mortality between 1991 and 2005 associated with NHSBSP activity. This is important in public health terms.

The Intracranial Distribution of Gliomas in Relation to Exposure From Mobile Phones: Analyses From the INTERPHONE Study

When investigating the association between brain tumors and use of mobile telephones, accurate data on tumor position are essential, due to the highly localized absorption of energy in the human brain from the radio-frequency fields emitted. We used a point process model to investigate this association using information that included tumor localization data from the INTERPHONE Study (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). Our main analysis included 792 regular mobile phone users diagnosed with a glioma between 2000 and 2004. Similar to earlier results, we found a statistically significant association between the intracranial distribution of gliomas and the self-reported location of the phone. When we accounted for the preferred side of the head not being exclusively used for all mobile phone calls, the results were similar. The association was independent of the cumulative call time and cumulative number of calls. However, our model used reported side of mobile phone use, which is potentially influenced by recall bias. The point process method provides an alternative to previously used epidemiologic research designs when one is including localization in the investigation of brain tumors and mobile phone use.

Genetic Risk Score Mendelian Randomization Shows that Obesity Measured as Body Mass Index, but not Waist:Hip Ratio, Is Causal for Endometrial Cancer

BACKGROUND

The strongest known risk factor for endometrial cancer is obesity. To determine whether SNPs associated with increased body mass index (BMI) or waist-hip ratio (WHR) are associated with endometrial cancer risk, independent of measured BMI, we investigated relationships between 77 BMI and 47 WHR SNPs and endometrial cancer in 6,609 cases and 37,926 country-matched controls.

METHODS

Logistic regression analysis and fixed effects meta-analysis were used to test for associations between endometrial cancer risk and (i) individual BMI or WHR SNPs, (ii) a combined weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) for BMI or WHR. Causality of BMI for endometrial cancer was assessed using Mendelian randomization, with BMIwGRS as instrumental variable.

RESULTS

The BMIwGRS was significantly associated with endometrial cancer risk (P = 3.4 × 10-17). Scaling the effect of the BMIwGRS on endometrial cancer risk by its effect on BMI, the endometrial cancer OR per 5 kg/m2 of genetically predicted BMI was 2.06 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.89-2.21], larger than the observed effect of BMI on endometrial cancer risk (OR = 1.55; 95% CI, 1.44-1.68, per 5 kg/m2). The association attenuated but remained significant after adjusting for BMI (OR = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.39; P = 5.3 × 10-4). There was evidence of directional pleiotropy (P = 1.5 × 10-4). BMI SNP rs2075650 was associated with endometrial cancer at study-wide significance (P < 4.0 × 10-4), independent of BMI. Endometrial cancer was not significantly associated with individual WHR SNPs or the WHRwGRS.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI, but not WHR, is causally associated with endometrial cancer risk, with evidence that some BMI-associated SNPs alter endometrial cancer risk via mechanisms other than measurable BMI.

IMPACT

The causal association between BMI SNPs and endometrial cancer has possible implications for endometrial cancer risk modeling. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(11); 1503-10. ©2016 AACR.

Prognostic value of automated KI67 scoring in breast cancer: a centralised evaluation of 8088 patients from 10 study groups

BACKGROUND

The value of KI67 in breast cancer prognostication has been questioned due to concerns on the analytical validity of visual KI67 assessment and methodological limitations of published studies. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of automated KI67 scoring in a large, multicentre study, and compare this with pathologists' visual scores available in a subset of patients.

METHODS

We utilised 143 tissue microarrays containing 15,313 tumour tissue cores from 8088 breast cancer patients in 10 collaborating studies. A total of 1401 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 7.5 years. Centralised KI67 assessment was performed using an automated scoring protocol. The relationship of KI67 levels with 10-year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) was investigated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for known prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Patients in the highest quartile of KI67 (>12 % positive KI67 cells) had a worse 10-year BCSS than patients in the lower three quartiles. This association was statistically significant for ER-positive patients (hazard ratio (HR) (95 % CI) at baseline = 1.96 (1.31-2.93); P = 0.001) but not for ER-negative patients (1.23 (0.86-1.77); P = 0.248) (P-heterogeneity = 0.064). In spite of differences in characteristics of the study populations, the estimates of HR were consistent across all studies (P-heterogeneity = 0.941 for ER-positive and P-heterogeneity = 0.866 for ER-negative). Among ER-positive cancers, KI67 was associated with worse prognosis in both node-negative (2.47 (1.16-5.27)) and node-positive (1.74 (1.05-2.86)) tumours (P-heterogeneity = 0.671). Further classification according to ER, PR and HER2 showed statistically significant associations with prognosis among hormone receptor-positive patients regardless of HER2 status (P-heterogeneity = 0.270) and among triple-negative patients (1.70 (1.02-2.84)). Model fit parameters were similar for visual and automated measures of KI67 in a subset of 2440 patients with information from both sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this large-scale multicentre analysis with centrally generated automated KI67 scores show strong evidence in support of a prognostic value for automated KI67 scoring in breast cancer. Given the advantages of automated scoring in terms of its potential for standardisation, reproducibility and throughput, automated methods appear to be promising alternatives to visual scoring for KI67 assessment.

Length of FMR1 repeat alleles within the normal range does not substantially affect the risk of early menopause

STUDY QUESTION

Is the length of FMR1 repeat alleles within the normal range associated with the risk of early menopause?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The length of repeat alleles within the normal range does not substantially affect risk of early menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

There is a strong, well-established relationship between length of premutation FMR1 alleles and age at menopause, suggesting that this relationship could continue into the normal range. Within the normal range, there is conflicting evidence; differences in ovarian reserve have been identified with FMR1 repeat allele length, but a recent population-based study did not find any association with age at menopause as a quantitative trait.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We analysed cross-sectional baseline survey data collected at recruitment from 2004 to 2010 from a population-based, prospective epidemiological cohort study of >110 000 women to investigate whether repeat allele length was associated with early menopause.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHOD

We included 4333 women from the Breakthrough Generations Study (BGS), of whom 2118 were early menopause cases (menopause under 46 years) and 2215 were controls. We analysed the relationship between length of FMR1 alleles and early menopause using logistic regression with allele length as continuous and categorical variables. We also conducted analyses with the outcome age at menopause as a quantitative trait as well as appropriate sensitivity and exploratory analyses.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

There was no association of the shorter or longer FMR1 allele or their combined genotype with the clinically relevant end point of early menopause in our main analysis. Likewise, there were no associations with age at menopause as a quantitative trait in our secondary analysis.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Women with homozygous alleles in the normal range may have undetected FMR1 premutation alleles, although there was no evidence to suggest this. We estimate minor dilution of risk of early menopause from the likely inclusion of some women with menopause at over 45 years in the early menopause cases due to age-rounding bias in self-reports.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

There is no robust evidence in this large study that variation within the normal range of FMR1 repeat alleles influences timing of menopause in the general population, which contradicts findings from some earlier, mainly smaller studies. The FMR1 CGG repeat polymorphism in the normal range is unlikely to contribute to genetic susceptibility to early menopause.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

We thank Breast Cancer Now and The Institute of Cancer Research for funding the BGS. The Institute of Cancer Research acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The study was funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 085943). There are no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Not applicable.

Menopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer: what is the true size of the increased risk?

BACKGROUND

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) increases breast cancer risk; however, most cohort studies omit MHT use after enrolment and many infer menopausal age.

METHODS

We used information from serial questionnaires from the UK Generations Study cohort to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for breast cancer among post-menopausal women with known menopausal age, and examined biases induced when not updating data on MHT use and including women with inferred menopausal age.

RESULTS

Among women recruited in 2003-2009, at 6 years of follow-up, 58 148 had reached menopause and 96% had completed a follow-up questionnaire. Among 39 183 women with known menopausal age, 775 developed breast cancer, and the HR in relation to current oestrogen plus progestogen MHT use (based on 52 current oestrogen plus progestogen MHT users in breast cancer cases) relative to those with no previous MHT use was 2.74 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.05-3.65) for a median duration of 5.4 years of current use, reaching 3.27 (95% CI: 1.53-6.99) at 15+ years of use. The excess HR was underestimated by 53% if oestrogen plus progestogen MHT use was not updated after recruitment, 13% if women with uncertain menopausal age were included, and 59% if both applied. The HR for oestrogen-only MHT was not increased (HR=1.00; 95% CI: 0.66-1.54).

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of updating MHT status through follow-up and inclusion of women with inferred menopausal age is likely to result in substantial underestimation of the excess relative risks for oestrogen plus progestogen MHT use in studies with long follow-up, limited updating of exposures, and changing or short durations of use.

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Breast Cancer Risk: Mendelian Randomization Analyses of Data from 145,000 Women of European Descent

BACKGROUND

Observational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or environmental factors.

METHODS

We applied Mendelian randomization to evaluate the association between BMI and risk of breast cancer occurrence using data from two large breast cancer consortia. We created a weighted BMI genetic score comprising 84 BMI-associated genetic variants to predicted BMI. We evaluated genetically predicted BMI in association with breast cancer risk using individual-level data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) (cases  =  46,325, controls  =  42,482). We further evaluated the association between genetically predicted BMI and breast cancer risk using summary statistics from 16,003 cases and 41,335 controls from the Discovery, Biology, and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) Project. Because most studies measured BMI after cancer diagnosis, we could not conduct a parallel analysis to adequately evaluate the association of measured BMI with breast cancer risk prospectively.

RESULTS

In the BCAC data, genetically predicted BMI was found to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio [OR]  =  0.65 per 5 kg/m2 increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.75, p = 3.32 × 10-10). The associations were similar for both premenopausal (OR   =   0.44, 95% CI:0.31-0.62, p  =  9.91 × 10-8) and postmenopausal breast cancer (OR  =  0.57, 95% CI: 0.46-0.71, p  =  1.88 × 10-8). This association was replicated in the data from the DRIVE consortium (OR  =  0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.84, p   =   1.64 × 10-7). Single marker analyses identified 17 of the 84 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in association with breast cancer risk at p < 0.05; for 16 of them, the allele associated with elevated BMI was associated with reduced breast cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI predicted by genome-wide association studies (GWAS)-identified variants is inversely associated with the risk of both pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer. The reduced risk of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with genetically predicted BMI observed in this study differs from the positive association reported from studies using measured adult BMI. Understanding the reasons for this discrepancy may reveal insights into the complex relationship of genetic determinants of body weight in the etiology of breast cancer.

Abstract 3451: Breast cancer risk factor associations by loss of E-cadherin tumor tissue expression: A pooled analysis of 5,896 cases in 12 studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC)

Purpose: Expression of the tumor suppressor gene E-cadherin is diminished in lobular breast cancers and has been implicated in epithelial mesenchymal transition. We assessed risk factor associations for breast cancer stratified by low vs. high E-cadherin protein expression in a pooled analysis within the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) studies.

Methods: E-cadherin tumor tissue staining was performed centrally at the NCI on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue microarray (TMA) sections representing 6,010 breast cancer patients from 12 US and European BCAC studies. TMAs were digitally scanned and scored using the SlidePath Digital Image Hub (Leica Biosystems, Wetzlar, Germany). For 5,896 cancers with evaluable tumors, E-cadherin was visually scored as estimated percent of positive cells times stain intensity (0, 1+, 2+, 3+) (score range 0-300). E-cadherin low was defined as tumors with a score &lt; 100. Risk factor associations for low vs. high E-cadherin expressing tumors were evaluated by logistic regression, adjusted for age and study site, and stratified by ER status and histologic subtype. To assess the consistency in results by study, meta-analyses were performed using the random-effects model. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results: E-cadherin low cancers comprised 20% of tumors and were associated with lobular histology, well/moderately differentiated cancers, &gt; 2cm in size, and HER2-negative status (χ2, P &lt; 0.003 for all factors). E-cadherin low status was associated with family history of breast cancer (FH) (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.60, P-het = 0.005) and ever use of menopausal hormones (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.02-1.56, P-het = 0.03). Study specific meta-plots showed consistent effects across studies for menopausal hormone therapy (I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.64); however, E-cadherin loss by FH did show evidence of heterogeneity by study (I2 = 54%, P = 0.03). Differences in E-cadherin expression remained significant for FH, and menopausal hormone use when further adjusted for ER (P &lt; 0.05). We also found relationships with E-cadherin loss to vary by BMI, number of live births, age at first birth, and oral contraceptive use in stratified analysis by ER status and histologic subtype.

Conclusion: This large pooled analysis shows that breast cancer risk factor associations may differ by E-cadherin expression independent of ER status, suggesting that it may represent a marker of etiologic heterogeneity.

Citation Format: Hisani N. Horne, Hannah Oh, Mark E. Sherman, Maya Palakal, Stephen H. Hewitt, Marjanka Schmidt, Javier Benitez, Roger Milne, Hermann Brenner, Heli Nevanlinna, Arto Mannermaa, Georgia Chenevix-Trench, Fergus Couch, Peter Devilee, Diana Eccles, Maartje Hooning, Anthony J. Swerdlow, Nick Orr, Melissa A. Troester, Renata Cora, Paul D. Pharoah, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Jonine D. Figueroa. Breast cancer risk factor associations by loss of E-cadherin tumor tissue expression: A pooled analysis of 5,896 cases in 12 studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr 3451.

Psychological stress, adverse life events and breast cancer incidence: a cohort investigation in 106,000 women in the United Kingdom

Background

Women diagnosed with breast cancer frequently attribute their cancer to psychological stress, but scientific evidence is inconclusive. We investigated whether experienced frequency of stress and adverse life events affect subsequent breast cancer risk.

Methods

Breast cancer incidence was analysed with respect to stress variables collected at enrolment in a prospective cohort study of 106,000 women in the United Kingdom, with 1783 incident breast cancer cases. Relative risks (RR) were obtained as hazard ratios using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

There was no association of breast cancer risk overall with experienced frequency of stress. Risk was reduced for death of a close relative during the 5 years preceding study entry (RR = 0.87, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.78–0.97), but not for death of a spouse/partner or close friend, personal illness/injury, or divorce/separation. There was a positive association of divorce with oestrogen-receptor-negative (RR = 1.54, 95 % CI: 1.01–2.34), but not with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer. Risk was raised in women who were under age 20 at the death of their mother (RR = 1.31, 95 % CI: 1.02–1.67), but not of their father, and the effect was attenuated after excluding mothers with breast or ovarian cancer (RR = 1.17, 95 % CI: 0.85–1.61).

Conclusions

This large prospective study did not show consistent evidence for an association of breast cancer risk with perceived stress levels or adverse life events in the preceding 5 years, or loss of parents during childhood and adolescence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-016-0733-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

High-throughput automated scoring of Ki67 in breast cancer tissue microarrays from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium

Automated methods are needed to facilitate high-throughput and reproducible scoring of Ki67 and other markers in breast cancer tissue microarrays (TMAs) in large-scale studies. To address this need, we developed an automated protocol for Ki67 scoring and evaluated its performance in studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We utilized 166 TMAs containing 16,953 tumour cores representing 9,059 breast cancer cases, from 13 studies, with information on other clinical and pathological characteristics. TMAs were stained for Ki67 using standard immunohistochemical procedures, and scanned and digitized using the Ariol system. An automated algorithm was developed for the scoring of Ki67, and scores were compared to computer assisted visual (CAV) scores in a subset of 15 TMAs in a training set. We also assessed the correlation between automated Ki67 scores and other clinical and pathological characteristics. Overall, we observed good discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 85%) and good agreement (kappa = 0.64) between the automated and CAV scoring methods in the training set. The performance of the automated method varied by TMA (kappa range= 0.37-0.87) and study (kappa range = 0.39-0.69). The automated method performed better in satisfactory cores (kappa = 0.68) than suboptimal (kappa = 0.51) cores (p-value for comparison = 0.005); and among cores with higher total nuclei counted by the machine (4,000-4,500 cells: kappa = 0.78) than those with lower counts (50-500 cells: kappa = 0.41; p-value = 0.010). Among the 9,059 cases in this study, the correlations between automated Ki67 and clinical and pathological characteristics were found to be in the expected directions. Our findings indicate that automated scoring of Ki67 can be an efficient method to obtain good quality data across large numbers of TMAs from multicentre studies. However, robust algorithm development and rigorous pre- and post-analytical quality control procedures are necessary in order to ensure satisfactory performance.

Five endometrial cancer risk loci identified through genome-wide association analysis

We conducted a meta-analysis of three endometrial cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and two follow-up phases totaling 7,737 endometrial cancer cases and 37,144 controls of European ancestry. Genome-wide imputation and meta-analysis identified five new risk loci of genome-wide significance at likely regulatory regions on chromosomes 13q22.1 (rs11841589, near KLF5), 6q22.31 (rs13328298, in LOC643623 and near HEY2 and NCOA7), 8q24.21 (rs4733613, telomeric to MYC), 15q15.1 (rs937213, in EIF2AK4, near BMF) and 14q32.33 (rs2498796, in AKT1, near SIVA1). We also found a second independent 8q24.21 signal (rs17232730). Functional studies of the 13q22.1 locus showed that rs9600103 (pairwise r(2) = 0.98 with rs11841589) is located in a region of active chromatin that interacts with the KLF5 promoter region. The rs9600103[T] allele that is protective in endometrial cancer suppressed gene expression in vitro, suggesting that regulation of the expression of KLF5, a gene linked to uterine development, is implicated in tumorigenesis. These findings provide enhanced insight into the genetic and biological basis of endometrial cancer.

Association of genetic susceptibility variants for type 2 diabetes with breast cancer risk in women of European ancestry

PURPOSE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been reported to be associated with an elevated risk of breast cancer. It is unclear, however, whether this association is due to shared genetic factors.

METHODS

We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) using risk variants from 33 known independent T2D susceptibility loci and evaluated its relation to breast cancer risk using the data from two consortia, including 62,328 breast cancer patients and 83,817 controls of European ancestry. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to derive adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) to measure the association of breast cancer risk with T2D GRS or T2D-associated genetic risk variants. Meta-analyses were conducted to obtain summary ORs across all studies.

RESULTS

The T2D GRS was not found to be associated with breast cancer risk, overall, by menopausal status, or for estrogen receptor positive or negative breast cancer. Three T2D associated risk variants were individually associated with breast cancer risk after adjustment for multiple comparisons using the Bonferroni method (at p < 0.001), rs9939609 (FTO) (OR 0.94, 95 % CI = 0.92-0.95, p = 4.13E-13), rs7903146 (TCF7L2) (OR 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.06, p = 1.26E-05), and rs8042680 (PRC1) (OR 0.97, 95 % CI = 0.95-0.99, p = 8.05E-04).

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown that several genetic risk variants were associated with the risk of both T2D and breast cancer. However, overall genetic susceptibility to T2D may not be related to breast cancer risk.

CYP19A1 fine-mapping and Mendelian randomization: estradiol is causal for endometrial cancer

Candidate gene studies have reported CYP19A1 variants to be associated with endometrial cancer and with estradiol (E2) concentrations. We analyzed 2937 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 6608 endometrial cancer cases and 37 925 controls and report the first genome wide-significant association between endometrial cancer and a CYP19A1 SNP (rs727479 in intron 2, P=4.8×10(-11)). SNP rs727479 was also among those most strongly associated with circulating E2 concentrations in 2767 post-menopausal controls (P=7.4×10(-8)). The observed endometrial cancer odds ratio per rs727479 A-allele (1.15, CI=1.11-1.21) is compatible with that predicted by the observed effect on E2 concentrations (1.09, CI=1.03-1.21), consistent with the hypothesis that endometrial cancer risk is driven by E2. From 28 candidate-causal SNPs, 12 co-located with three putative gene-regulatory elements and their risk alleles associated with higher CYP19A1 expression in bioinformatical analyses. For both phenotypes, the associations with rs727479 were stronger among women with a higher BMI (Pinteraction=0.034 and 0.066 respectively), suggesting a biologically plausible gene-environment interaction.

Height and Breast Cancer Risk: Evidence From Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies have linked adult height with breast cancer risk in women. However, the magnitude of the association, particularly by subtypes of breast cancer, has not been established. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the association remain unclear.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis to investigate associations between height and breast cancer risk using data from 159 prospective cohorts totaling 5216302 women, including 113178 events. In a consortium with individual-level data from 46325 case patients and 42482 control patients, we conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis using a genetic score that comprised 168 height-associated variants as an instrument. This association was further evaluated in a second consortium using summary statistics data from 16003 case patients and 41335 control patients.

RESULTS

The pooled relative risk of breast cancer was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 1.19) per 10cm increase in height in the meta-analysis of prospective studies. In Mendelian randomization analysis, the odds ratio of breast cancer per 10cm increase in genetically predicted height was 1.22 (95% CI = 1.13 to 1.32) in the first consortium and 1.21 (95% CI = 1.05 to 1.39) in the second consortium. The association was found in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women but restricted to hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Analyses of height-associated variants identified eight new loci associated with breast cancer risk after adjusting for multiple comparisons, including three loci at 1q21.2, DNAJC27, and CCDC91 at genome-wide significance level P < 5×10(-8).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides strong evidence that adult height is a risk factor for breast cancer in women and certain genetic factors and biological pathways affecting adult height have an important role in the etiology of breast cancer.

Comprehensive genetic assessment of the ESR1 locus identifies a risk region for endometrial cancer

Excessive exposure to estrogen is a well-established risk factor for endometrial cancer (EC), particularly for cancers of endometrioid histology. The physiological function of estrogen is primarily mediated by estrogen receptor alpha, encoded by ESR1. Consequently, several studies have investigated whether variation at the ESR1 locus is associated with risk of EC, with conflicting results. We performed comprehensive fine-mapping analyses of 3633 genotyped and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 6607 EC cases and 37 925 controls. There was evidence of an EC risk signal located at a potential alternative promoter of the ESR1 gene (lead SNP rs79575945, P=1.86×10(-5)), which was stronger for cancers of endometrioid subtype (P=3.76×10(-6)). Bioinformatic analysis suggests that this risk signal is in a functionally important region targeting ESR1, and eQTL analysis found that rs79575945 was associated with expression of SYNE1, a neighbouring gene. In summary, we have identified a single EC risk signal located at ESR1, at study-wide significance. Given SNPs located at this locus have been associated with risk for breast cancer, also a hormonally driven cancer, this study adds weight to the rationale for performing informed candidate fine-scale genetic studies across cancer types.

Genome-wide homozygosity signature and risk of Hodgkin lymphoma

Recent studies have reported that regions of homozygosity (ROH) in the genome are detectable in outbred populations and can be associated with an increased risk of malignancy. To examine whether homozygosity is associated with an increased risk of developing Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) we analysed 589 HL cases and 5,199 controls genotyped for 484,072 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Across the genome the cumulative distribution of ROH was not significantly different between cases and controls. Seven ROH at 4q22.3, 4q32.2, 7p12.3-14.1, 7p22.2, 10p11.22-23, 19q13.12-2 and 19p13.2 were associated with HL risk at P < 0.01. Intriguingly 4q22.3 harbours an ROH to which the nuclear factor NF-kappa-B p105 subunit (NFKB1) maps (P = 0.002). The ROH at 19q13.12-2 has previously been implicated in B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Aside from these observations which require validation, it is unlikely that levels of measured homozygosity caused by autozygosity, uniparental isodisomy or hemizygosity play a major role in defining HL risk in predominantly outbred populations.

Description of the SAGhE Cohort: A Large European Study of Mortality and Cancer Incidence Risks after Childhood Treatment with Recombinant Growth Hormone

BACKGROUND

The long-term safety of growth hormone treatment is uncertain. Raised risks of death and certain cancers have been reported inconsistently, based on limited data or short-term follow-up by pharmaceutical companies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The SAGhE (Safety and Appropriateness of Growth Hormone Treatments in Europe) study assembled cohorts of patients treated in childhood with recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH) in 8 European countries since the first use of this treatment in 1984 and followed them for cause-specific mortality and cancer incidence. Expected rates were obtained from national and local general population data. The cohort consisted of 24,232 patients, most commonly treated for isolated growth failure (53%), Turner syndrome (13%) and growth hormone deficiency linked to neoplasia (12%). This paper describes in detail the study design, methods and data collection and discusses the strengths, biases and weaknesses consequent on this.

CONCLUSION

The SAGhE cohort is the largest and longest follow-up cohort study of growth hormone-treated patients with follow-up and analysis independent of industry. It forms a major resource for investigating cancer and mortality risks in r-hGH patients. The interpretation of SAGhE results, however, will need to take account of the methods of cohort assembly and follow-up in each country.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies five new susceptibility loci for cutaneous malignant melanoma

Thirteen common susceptibility loci have been reproducibly associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We report the results of an international 2-stage meta-analysis of CMM genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This meta-analysis combines 11 GWAS (5 previously unpublished) and a further three stage 2 data sets, totaling 15,990 CMM cases and 26,409 controls. Five loci not previously associated with CMM risk reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)), as did 2 previously reported but unreplicated loci and all 13 established loci. Newly associated SNPs fall within putative melanocyte regulatory elements, and bioinformatic and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data highlight candidate genes in the associated regions, including one involved in telomere biology.

Development and validation of a melanoma risk score based on pooled data from 16 case-control studies

BACKGROUND

We report the development of a cutaneous melanoma risk algorithm based upon seven factors; hair color, skin type, family history, freckling, nevus count, number of large nevi, and history of sunburn, intended to form the basis of a self-assessment Web tool for the general public.

METHODS

Predicted odds of melanoma were estimated by analyzing a pooled dataset from 16 case-control studies using logistic random coefficients models. Risk categories were defined based on the distribution of the predicted odds in the controls from these studies. Imputation was used to estimate missing data in the pooled datasets. The 30th, 60th, and 90th centiles were used to distribute individuals into four risk groups for their age, sex, and geographic location. Cross-validation was used to test the robustness of the thresholds for each group by leaving out each study one by one. Performance of the model was assessed in an independent UK case-control study dataset.

RESULTS

Cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the threshold estimates. Cases and controls were well discriminated in the independent dataset [area under the curve, 0.75; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.73-0.78]. Twenty-nine percent of cases were in the highest risk group compared with 7% of controls, and 43% of controls were in the lowest risk group compared with 13% of cases.

CONCLUSION

We have identified a composite score representing an estimate of relative risk and successfully validated this score in an independent dataset.

IMPACT

This score may be a useful tool to inform members of the public about their melanoma risk.

Genome-wide association analysis of more than 120,000 individuals identifies 15 new susceptibility loci for breast cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and large-scale replication studies have identified common variants in 79 loci associated with breast cancer, explaining ∼14% of the familial risk of the disease. To identify new susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 GWAS, comprising 15,748 breast cancer cases and 18,084 controls together with 46,785 cases and 42,892 controls from 41 studies genotyped on a 211,155-marker custom array (iCOGS). Analyses were restricted to women of European ancestry. We generated genotypes for more than 11 million SNPs by imputation using the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel, and we identified 15 new loci associated with breast cancer at P < 5 × 10(-8). Combining association analysis with ChIP-seq chromatin binding data in mammary cell lines and ChIA-PET chromatin interaction data from ENCODE, we identified likely target genes in two regions: SETBP1 at 18q12.3 and RNF115 and PDZK1 at 1q21.1. One association appears to be driven by an amino acid substitution encoded in EXO1.