The Impact of Race and Ethnicity Upon Health-Related Quality of Life and Mortality in Dialysis Patients

Rationale & Objective

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been recognized as a strong predictor of mortality among hemodialysis patients. However, differences in the association of HRQoL with survival across diverse racial/ethnic groups have not been well studied in this population.

Study Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting & Participants

We examined the relationship between HRQoL and mortality in a prospective cohort of racially/ethnically diverse hemodialysis patients recruited from 18 outpatient dialysis units during 2011 to 2016.

Exposure

Using the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) administered every 6 months, HRQoL was ascertained by 36 questions summarized as 2 Physical and Mental Component and 8 subscale scores.

Outcome

All-cause mortality.

Analytical Approach

Associations of time-varying SF-36 scores with mortality were estimated using Cox models in the overall cohort and within racial/ethnic subgroups.

Results

Among 753 hemodialysis patients who met eligibility criteria, expanded case-mix analyses showed that the lowest quartiles of time-varying Physical and Mental Component scores were associated with higher mortality in the overall cohort (reference: highest quartile): adjusted HRs, 2.30 (95% CI, 1.53-3.47) and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.05-2.25), respectively. In analyses stratified by race/ethnicity, the lowest quartile of Physical Component scores was significantly associated with higher mortality across all groups: adjusted HRs, 2.64 (95% CI, 1.31-5.29), 1.84 (95% CI, 1.01-3.38), and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.13-8.91) for Hispanic, African American, and other race/ethnicity patients, respectively. The lowest quartile of time-varying physical functioning, role limitations due to physical health, role limitations due to emotional problems, social functioning, and pain subscale scores were associated with higher mortality in the overall cohort and particularly in Hispanics and blacks.

Limitations

Residual confounding cannot be excluded.

Conclusions

Lower SF-36 Physical Component and subscale scores were associated with higher mortality in hemodialysis patients, including those of minority background. Further studies are needed to determine whether interventions that augment physical health might improve the survival of these diverse populations.

Prognostic significance of pre-end-stage renal disease serum alkaline phosphatase for post-end-stage renal disease mortality in late-stage chronic kidney disease patients transitioning to dialysis

Background

Higher serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels have been associated with excess mortality in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, little is known about the impact of late-stage NDD-CKD ALP levels on outcomes after dialysis initiation.

Methods

Among 17 732 US veterans who transitioned to dialysis between October 2007 and September 2011, we examined the association of serum ALP levels averaged over the last 6 months of the pre-ESRD transition period ('prelude period') with all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality following dialysis initiation, using Cox (for all-cause mortality) and competing risk (for cause-specific mortality) regressions adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, medications, estimated glomerular filtration rate and serum albumin levels over the 6-month prelude period, and vascular access type at dialysis initiation.

Results

During a median follow-up of 2.0 (interquartile range, 1.1-3.2) years following dialysis initiation, a total of 9196 all-cause deaths occurred. Higher ALP levels were incrementally associated with higher all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality. Compared with patients in the lowest ALP quartile (<66.0 U/L), those in the highest quartile (≥111.1 U/L) had multivariable-adjusted hazard/subhazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1.42 (1.34-1.51), 1.43 (1.09-1.88) and 1.39 (1.09-1.78) for all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality, respectively. The associations remained consistent in various subgroups and after further adjustment for liver enzymes, serum phosphorus and intact parathyroid hormone levels.

Conclusions

Higher pre-ESRD serum ALP levels are independently associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk. Further studies are warranted to determine if interventions that lower pre-ESRD ALP levels reduce mortality in incident dialysis patients.

Survival Advantage of African American Dialysis Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease Causes Related to APOL1

BACKGROUND

Observational studies show that African American (AA) dialysis patients have longer survival than European Americans. We hypothesized that apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) genetic variation, associated with nephropathy in AAs, contributes to the survival advantage in AA dialysis patients.

METHODS

We examined the association between race and mortality among 37,097 adult dialysis patients, including 54% AAs and 46% European Americans from a large dialysis organization (entry period from July 2001 to June 2006, follow-up through June 2007), within each cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) category associated with APOL1 renal risk variants using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

AA dialysis patients had numerically lower mortality than their European American counterparts for all causes of ESRD. The mortality reduction among AAs compared to European Americans was statistically significant in patients with ESRD attributed to diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and APOL1-enriched glomerulonephritis (GN) (HR [95% CI]: 0.69 [0.66-0.72], 0.73 [0.68-0.79], and 0.89 [0.79-0.99], respectively); these are conditions in which APOL1 variants promote kidney disease. By contrast, the significant survival advantage of AA dialysis patients was not observed in patients with ESRD attributed to other kidney disease (including polycystic kidney disease, interstitial nephritis, and pyelonephritis) and other GN, which are not associated with APOL1 variants.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest the hypothesis that the relative survival advantage of AA dialysis patients may be related to APOL1 variation. Further large population-based genetic studies are required to test this hypothesis.

Chronic hyponatremia and association with osteoporosis among a large racially/ethnically diverse population

Chronic hyponatremia may contribute to decreased bone density. We studied 341,003 men and women who underwent DXA testing and observed that individuals with chronic hyponatremia (sodium < 135 mEq/L) had an 11% greater likelihood of having osteoporosis. There was a dose-dependent effect with lower sodium and stronger association with osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION

Chronic hyponatremia has been associated with both neurologic deficits and increased risk of gait abnormalities leading to falls and resultant bone fractures. Whether chronic hyponatremia contributes to decreased bone density is uncertain. We evaluated whether chronic, mild hyponatremia based on serial sodium measurements was associated with increased risk of osteoporosis within a large, ethnically diverse population.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2014 within Kaiser Permanente Southern California, an integrated healthcare delivery system. Men and women were aged ≥ 55 years with ≥ 2 serum sodium measurements prior to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) testing. Time-weighted (TW) mean sodium values were calculated by using the proportion of time (weight) elapsed between sodium measurements and defined as < 135 mEq/L. Osteoporosis defined as any T-score value ≤ - 2.5 of lumbar spine, femoral neck, or hip.

RESULTS

Among 341,003 individuals with 3,330,903 sodium measurements, 11,539 (3.4%) had chronic hyponatremia and 151,505 (44.4%) had osteoporosis. Chronic hyponatremic individuals had an osteoporosis RR (95% CI) of 1.11 (1.09, 1.13) compared to those with normonatremia. A TW mean sodium increase of 3 mEq/L was associated with a lower risk of osteoporosis [adjusted RR (95% CI) 0.95 (0.93, 0.96)]. A similar association was observed when the arithmetic mean sodium value was used for comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a modest increase in risk for osteoporosis in people with chronic hyponatremia. There was also a graded association between higher TW mean sodium values and lower risk of osteoporosis. Our findings underscore the premise that chronic hyponatremia may lead to adverse physiological effects and responses which deserves better understanding.

Performance Characteristics of Profiling Methods and the Impact of Inadequate Case-mix Adjustment

Profiling or evaluation of health care providers involves the application of statistical models to compare each provider's performance with respect to a patient outcome, such as unplanned 30-day hospital readmission, adjusted for patient case-mix characteristics. The nationally adopted method is based on random effects (RE) hierarchical logistic regression models. Although RE models are sensible for modeling hierarchical data, novel high dimensional fixed effects (FE) models have been proposed which may be well-suited for the objective of identifying sub-standard performance. However, there are limited comparative studies. Thus, we examine their relative performance, including the impact of inadequate case-mix adjustment.

Precision Medicine in the Transition to Dialysis and Personalized Renal Replacement Therapy

Launched in 2016, the overarching goal of the Precision Medicine Initiative is to promote a personalized approach to disease management that takes into account an individual's unique underlying biology and genetics, lifestyle, and environment, in lieu of a one-size-fits-all model. The concept of precision medicine is pervasive across many areas of nephrology and has been particularly relevant to the care of advanced chronic kidney disease patients transitioning to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Given many uncertainties surrounding the optimal transition of incident ESKD patients to dialysis and transplantation, as well as the high mortality rates observed during this delicate transition period, there is a pressing urgency for implementing precision medicine in the management of this population. Although the traditional paradigm has been to commence incident hemodialysis patients on a 3 times/week treatment regimen, largely driven by adequacy targets, there has been growing recognition that alternative treatment regimens (ie, incremental hemodialysis) may be preferred among certain subpopulations when taking into consideration factors such as patients' residual kidney function, volume status fluctuations, symptoms, and preferences. In this review, we examine the origins of current practices in how dialysis is initiated among incident ESKD patients; incremental dialysis therapy as a dynamic and patient-centric approach that is tailored to patients' unique characteristics; recent data on the incremental hemodialysis regimen and outcomes; and future research directions using a precision nephrology approach to ESKD management with the potential to develop novel approaches, tools, and collaborative efforts to improve the health, well-being, and survival of this population.

Estimated GFR at Dialysis Initiation and Mortality in Children and Adolescents

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis therapy initiation with mortality among adult dialysis patients has been greatly debated, with some studies showing no benefit from early dialysis therapy initiation. However, this association has not been well investigated in pediatric dialysis patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the mortality risk associated with eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation in children and adolescents with kidney failure.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

9,963 incident dialysis patients aged 1 to 17 years in the US Renal Data System registry (1995-2016).

PREDICTOR

eGFRs at dialysis therapy initiation calculated using the pediatric-specific bedside Schwartz equation (<5, 5-<7, 7-<9, 9-<12, and ≥12mL/min/1.73m²).

OUTCOME

Time to all-cause death.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for case-mix variables, height, body mass index, hemoglobin level, and serum albumin level.

RESULTS

Median eGFR was 7.8 (IQR, 5.6-10.5) mL/min/1.73m² and median age was 13 (IQR, 9-16) years. 696 deaths were observed during the median follow-up of 1.4 (IQR, 0.7-2.7) years, and overall crude mortality rate was 31 per 1,000 patient-years. There appeared to be a trend toward higher mortality risk across higher eGFRs at dialysis therapy initiation. Compared with eGFRs of 7 to <9mL/min/1.73m², eGFRs <5 and ≥12mL/min/1.73m² were associated with lower and higher mortality, with adjusted HRs of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.43-0.74) and 1.31 (95% CI, 1.05-1.65), respectively. In age-stratified analysis, there were consistent relationships among patients 6 years and older while the eGFR-mortality association was attenuated among patients younger than 6 years (P_interaction = 0.002).

LIMITATIONS

Possible errors in eGFRs due to methods for serum creatinine measurement. Unmeasured confounders related to eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation was associated with higher mortality risk. Further studies of eGFR at initiation are needed in pediatric dialysis patients, especially among those younger than 6 years.

Factors Associated With Withdrawal From Dialysis Therapy in Incident Hemodialysis Patients Aged 80 Years or Older

OBJECTIVES

Among kidney disease patients ≥80 years progressing to end-stage renal disease, there is growing interest in conservative nondialytic management approaches. However, among those who have initiated hemodialysis, little is known about the impact of withdrawal from dialysis on mortality, nor the patient characteristics associated with withdrawal from dialysis.

STUDY DESIGN

Historical cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We examined 133,162 incident hemodialysis patients receiving care within a large national dialysis organization from 2007 to 2011.

MEASURES

We identified patients who withdrew from dialysis, either as a listed cause of death or censor reason. Incidence rates and subdistribution hazard ratios for withdrawal from dialysis as well as 4 other censoring reasons were examined across age groups. In addition, demographic and clinical characteristics associated with withdrawal from dialysis therapy among patients ≥80 years old was assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 17,296 patients aged ≥80 years, 10% of patients withdrew from dialysis. Duration from the last hemodialysis treatment to death was 10 [interquartile range 6-16] days in patients with available data. Withdrawal from dialysis was the second and third most common cause of death among patients aged ≥80 years and <80 years, respectively. Among patients ≥80 years, minorities were much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to stop dialysis. Other factors associated with higher odds of dialysis withdrawal included having a central venous catheter compared to an arteriovenous fistula at dialysis start, dementia, living in mid-west regions, and less favorable markers associated with malnutrition-inflammation-cachexia syndrome such as higher white blood cell counts and lower body mass index, albumin, and normalized protein catabolic rate.

CONCLUSION/IMPLICATIONS

Among very-elderly incident hemodialysis patients, dialysis therapy withdrawal exhibits wide variations across age, race and ethnicity, regions, cognitive status, dialysis vascular access, and nutritional status. Further studies examining implications of withdrawal from dialysis in older patients are warranted.

Association of Pre-End-Stage Renal Disease Serum Albumin With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Outcomes Among Patients Transitioning to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

Serum albumin is a marker of malnutrition and inflammation and has been demonstrated as a strong predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Yet, whether serum albumin levels in late-stage CKD are associated with adverse outcomes after the transition to ESRD is unknown. We hypothesize that lower levels and a decline in serum albumin in late-stage CKD are associated with higher risk of mortality and hospitalization rates 1 year after transition to ESRD.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 29,124 US veterans with advanced CKD transitioning to ESRD between 2007 and 2015. We evaluated the association of pre-ESRD (91 days before transition) serum albumin with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates as well as the association of 1-year pre-ESRD albumin slope and 12-month post-ESRD mortality using hierarchical multivariable adjustments.

RESULTS

There was a negative linear association between serum albumin and all-cause mortality, such that risk doubled (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87, 2.28) for patients with the lowest serum albumin <2.8 g/dL (ref: ≥4.0 g/dL) after full adjustment. A consistent relationship was observed between serum albumin and cardiovascular and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes. An increase in serum albumin of >0.25 g/dL/year was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91) compared with a slight decline in albumin (ref: >-0.25 to 0 g/dL/year), whereas a decline more than 0.5 g/dL/year was associated with a 55% higher risk in mortality (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.43, 1.68) in fully adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower pre-ESRD serum albumin was associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates. Declining serum albumin levels in the pre-ESRD period were also associated with worse 12-month post-ESRD mortality.

Mean Corpuscular Volume and Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Anemia is common in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A proportion of patients present with macrocytic anemia, manifested by elevated mean corpuscular volume (MCV), which has been associated with worse outcomes in CKD patients. However, it is unknown whether elevated MCV is associated with higher mortality risk in incident hemodialysis (HD) patients.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study examined all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality associations with both baseline and time-varying MCV in 109,501 incident HD patients using Cox proportional hazards models with 3 levels of hierarchical multivariable adjustment. Odds ratios of high versus low baseline MCV were evaluated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 65 ± 15 (standard deviation) years and the cohort was 44% female, 58% diabetic, and 31% African American. Higher MCV was associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic White race-ethnicity, alcohol consumption, and having a decreased albumin or protein intake. Patients with higher MCV levels (> 98 fL) had a higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality risk in both baseline and time varying models, and across all levels of adjustment. In the fully adjusted models, compared to a reference of MCV 92-< 94 fL, patients with a baseline MCV > 100+ fL had a 28% higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.22-1.34), 27% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18-1.36), and 18% higher risk of infectious mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38). Associations of higher MCV with these adverse outcomes persisted across all examined subgroups of clinical characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher MCV was associated with higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality in HD patients. Further investigation is necessary to understand the underlying nature of the observed association.

Asian Americans & chronic kidney disease in a nationally representative cohort

Background

There is a paucity of specific data on early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among Asian Americans (AAs). The objective of this study was to examine the independent association of Asian race/ethnicity and socio-demographic and co-morbidity factors with markers of early kidney damage, ascertained by ACR levels, as well as kidney dysfunction, ascertained by eGFR levels in a large cross-sectional sample of AAs enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Methods

Secondary data analyses of the NHANES 2011–2014 data of a nationally representative sample of 5907 participants 18 years and older, US citizens, and of Asian and White race. NHANES data included race (Asian vs. White), as well as other socio-demographic information and comorbidities. Urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) categories and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were used as indicators for CKD. Descriptive analyses using frequencies, means (standard deviations), and chi-square tests was first conducted, then multivariable logistic regression serial adjustment models were used to examine the associations between race/ethnicity, other socio-demographic factors (age, sex, education), and co-morbidities (obesity, diabetes, hypertension) with elevated ACR levels (A2 & A3 – CKD Stages 3 and 4–5, respectively) as well as reduced eGFR (G3a-G5 and G3b –G5 - CKD Stage 3–5).

Results

AAs were more likely than White participants to have ACR levels > 300 mg/g (A3) (adjusted OR (aOR) (95% CI) 2.77 (1.55, 4.97), p = 0.001). In contrast, adjusted analyses demonstrated that AAs were less likely to have eGFR levels < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (G3a-G5) (aOR (95% CI) 0.50 (0.35, 0.72), p < .001).

Conclusions

This is one of the first large U.S. population-based studies of AAs that has shown a comparatively higher risk of elevated ACR > 300 mg/g levels (A3) but lower risk of having eGFR levels < 60 ml/min/1.732 m2 (G3a-G5). The findings support the need to address the gaps in knowledge regarding disparities in risk of early stage CKD among AAs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12882-018-1145-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modeling time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors of hospitalizations in patients on dialysis

For chronic dialysis patients, a unique population requiring continuous medical care, methodologies to monitor patient outcomes, such as hospitalizations, over time, after initiation of dialysis, are of particular interest. Contributing to patient hospitalizations is a number of multilevel covariates such as demographics and comorbidities at the patient level and staffing composition at the dialysis facility level. We propose a varying coefficient model for multilevel risk factors (VCM-MR) to study the time-varying effects of covariates on patient hospitalization risk as a function of time on dialysis. The proposed VCM-MR also includes subject-specific random effects to account for within-subject correlation and dialysis facility-specific fixed effect varying coefficient functions to allow for the modeling of flexible time-varying facility-specific risk trajectories. An approximate EM algorithm and an iterative Newton-Raphson approach are proposed to address the challenge of estimation of high-dimensional parameters (varying coefficient functions) for thousands of dialysis facilities in the United States. The proposed modeling allows for comparisons between time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors as well as testing of facility-specific fixed effects. The method is applied to model hospitalization risk using the rich hierarchical data available on dialysis patients initiating dialysis between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2008 from the United States Renal Data System, a large national database, where 331 443 hospitalizations over time are nested within patients, and 89 889 patients are nested within 2201 dialysis facilities. Patients are followed-up until December 31, 2013, where the follow-up time is truncated five years after the initiation of dialysis. Finite sample properties are studied through extensive simulations.

Intradialytic hypotension, blood pressure changes and mortality risk in incident hemodialysis patients

Background

Intradialytic hypotension (IDH) occurs frequently in maintenance hemodialysis (HD) patients and may be associated with higher mortality. We hypothesize that nadir intradialytic systolic blood pressure (niSBP) is inversely related to death risk while iSBP change (Δ) and IDH frequency are incrementally associated with all-cause mortality.

Methods

In a US-based cohort of 112 013 incident HD patients over a 5-year period (2007-11), using niSBP, ΔiSBP (pre-HD SBP minus niSBP) and IDH frequency (proportion of HD treatments with niSBP <90 mmHg) within the first 91 days of HD, we examined mortality-predictability at 1, 2 and 5 years using Cox models and restricted cubic splines adjusted for case-mix, comorbidities and laboratory covariates.

Results

We observed that niSBP of <90 and ≥140 mmHg had a 5-year mortality hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval) of 1.57 (1.47-1.67) and 1.25 (1.18-1.33), respectively, compared with niSBP 110 to <120 mmHg. ΔiSBP of <15 and ≥50 compared with 21-30 mmHg had mortality HR of 1.31 (1.26-1.37) and 1.32 (1.24-1.39), respectively. Among patients with >40% IDH frequency, we observed a mortality HR of 1.49 (1.42-1.57) compared with 0% IDH frequency in fully adjusted models. These associations were robust at 1 and 2 years of follow-up.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we observed a U-shaped association between niSBP and ΔiSBP and mortality and a direct linear relationship between IDH frequency and mortality. Our findings lend some prognostic insight of HD blood pressure and hemodynamics, and have the potential to guide blood pressure management strategies among the HD population.

Impact of Case-Mix Measurement Error on Estimation and Inference in Profiling of Health Care Providers

Profiling analysis aims to evaluate health care providers by modeling each provider's performance with respect to a patient outcome, such as unplanned hospital readmission. High-dimensional regression models are used in profiling to risk-adjust for patient case-mix covariates. Case-mix covariates typically ascertained from administrative databases are inherently error-prone. We examine the impact of case-mix measurement error (ME) on profiling models. The results show that even though the models' coefficient estimates are biased, this does not affect the estimation of standardized readmission ratio (SRR). However, ME leads to increased variation in SRR estimates and degrades the ability to identify under-performing providers.

No Survival Benefit in Octogenarians and Nonagenarians with Extended Hemodialysis Treatment Time

BACKGROUND

The population of elderly end-stage renal disease patients initiating dialysis is rapidly growing. Although longer treatment is supposed to benefit for hemodialysis (HD) patients through more solute clearance and slower fluid removal, it is not yet clear how treatment session length affects mortality risk in octogenarians and nonagenarians.

METHODS

In a cohort of 112,026 incident HD patients between 2007 and 2011, we examined the association of treatment session length with all-cause mortality, adjusting for demographics and comorbid conditions. We also used restricted spline functions for age to evaluate continuous changes in the association of short (< 210 min) and extended (≥240 min) HD treatment (vs. 210 to < 240 min) with all-cause mortality over continuous age.

RESULTS

During the first 91 days of dialysis, patients aged ≥80 years tended to have the lowest treatment session length (median [interquartile range] 211 [193-230] min, r > 0.5). Longer treatment was associated with better survival in patients < 65 and 65 to < 80 years but not in octogenarians/nonagenarians. The association of extended treatment (≥240 min) with better survival was attenuated across age and not significant among patients aged ≥80 years with a hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 0.99-1.20). Shorter treatment sessions (< 210 min) was associated with higher mortality across all age groups.

CONCLUSION

Extended HD was not associated with lower mortality among octogenarians and nonagenarians, while it was associated with better survival among younger patients. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal treatment session length in elderly incident HD patients.

Impact of Hypothyroidism and Heart Failure on Hospitalization Risk

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest that the relationship between hypothyroidism and mortality is dependent on underlying cardiovascular risk. Little is known about the association of hypothyroidism with hospitalization risk, and how these associations are modified by cardiovascular status.

METHODS

This study examined the association of thyroid status, defined by serum thyrotropin (TSH), with hospitalization risk among patients who received care at a large university-based tertiary care center between 1990 and 2015. Thyroid status was categorized as hypothyroidism versus euthyroidism (TSH >4.7 vs. 0.3-4.7 mIU/L, respectively). The relationship between thyroid status and hospitalization risk stratified by cardiovascular status was examined using multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 52,856 patients who met eligibility criteria, 49,791 (94.2%) had euthyroidism and 3065 (5.8%) had hypothyroidism. In analyses stratified by congestive heart failure (CHF) status, compared to euthyroidism, hypothyroidism was associated with higher risk of hospitalization in those with CHF but slightly lower risk in those without CHF (adjusted hazard ratio [aHRs] = 1.86 [confidence interval (CI) 1.17-2.94] and HR = 0.95 [CI 0.92-0.99], respectively; p = 0.006). In sensitivity analyses accounting for death as a competing event, underlying coronary artery disease modified the hypothyroidism-hospitalization relationship, such that stronger associations were observed among those with versus without coronary artery disease. In competing risk analyses, hypothyroidism was associated with higher versus lower risk of hospitalization among those with versus without cerebrovascular disease, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypothyroidism is associated with higher hospitalization risk among patients with underlying cardiovascular disease. Future studies are needed to determine whether correction of thyroid status with replacement therapy ameliorates hospitalization risk in this population.

Development and Validation of Prediction Scores for Early Mortality at Transition to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model that would help individualize treatment and improve the shared decision-making process between clinicians and patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year of dialysis based on pre-end-stage renal disease characteristics in a cohort of 35,878 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease who transitioned to dialysis treatment between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2014 and then externally validated this tool among 4284 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health care system who transitioned to dialysis treatment between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2015.

RESULTS

To ensure model goodness of fit, 2 separate models were selected for patients whose last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before dialysis initiation was less than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher. Model discrimination in the internal validation cohort of veterans resulted in C statistics of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.72) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) among patients with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher, respectively. In the KPSC external validation cohort, the developed risk score exhibited C statistics of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in men and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) in women with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) in men and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in women with eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year after transition to dialysis (available at www.DialysisScore.com) was developed in the large national Veterans Affairs cohort and validated with good performance in the racially, ethnically, and gender diverse KPSC cohort. This risk prediction tool will help identify high-risk populations and guide management strategies at the transition to dialysis.

Predialysis Kidney Function and Its Rate of Decline Predict Mortality and Hospitalizations After Starting Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether kidney function level and its rate of decline in the immediate predialysis period among veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) predict postdialysis mortality and hospitalization.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In 19,985 veterans transitioning to ESRD during the period October 1, 2007, to March 30, 2014, we examined kidney function and its slope over the final year of the pre-ESRD(prelude) period. Two categories of low vs high estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, dichotomized at 10 mL/min/1.73 m²) and slow vs fast slope (dichotomized at -10 mL/min/1.73 m²/y) were combined into 4 groups. Their associations with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and hospitalization rates were examined in adjusted models accounting for clinical characteristics and laboratory measurements at transition.

RESULTS

Patients, 66±11 years old, and 34% blacks, had a median (interquartile range) eGFR at transition and slope of 9.7 (7.1-13.3) mL/min/1.73 m² and -10.5 (-18.8 to -5.9) mL/min/1.73 m²/y, respectively. Patients with a low eGFR and slow slope had the lowest 12-month all-cause and CV mortality risks and hospitalization rate. Conversely, patients with high eGFR and fast slope had the highest risk of all-cause and CV mortality and hospitalization rate compared with patients with a low eGFR and slow slope. This relationship persisted in sensitivity analyses, including propensity scoring.

CONCLUSION

A kidney profile of a low eGFR and slow slope in the prelude period is associated with favorable early dialysis outcomes in veteran patients. Trials to examine a more conservative approach to dialysis are warranted.