Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

Dermatologist-level classification of malignant lip diseases using a deep convolutional neural network

BACKGROUND

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) can classify skin diseases at a level equivalent to a dermatologist, but their performance in specific areas requires further research.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of a trained DCNN-based algorithm in classifying benign and malignant lip diseases.

METHODS

A training set of 1629 images (743 malignant, 886 benign) was used with Inception-Resnet-V2. Performance was evaluated using another set of 344 images and 281 images from other hospitals. Classifications by 44 participants (six board-certified dermatologists, 12 dermatology residents, nine medical doctors not specialized in dermatology and 17 medical students) were used for comparison.

RESULTS

The outcomes based on the area under curve, sensitivity and specificity were 0·827 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·782-0·873], 0·755 (95% CI 0·673-0·827) and 0·803 (95% CI 0·752-0·855), respectively, for the set of 344 images; and 0·774 (95% CI 0·699-0·849), 0·702 (95% CI 0·579-0·808) and 0·759 (95% CI 0·701-0·813), respectively, for the set of 281 images. The DCNN was equivalent to the dermatologists and superior to the nondermatologists in classifying malignancy. After referencing the DCNN result, the mean ± SD Youden index increased significantly for nondermatologists, from 0·201 ± 0·156 to 0·322 ± 0·141 (P < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

DCNNs can classify lip diseases at a level similar to dermatologists. This will help unskilled physicians discriminate between benign and malignant lip diseases. What's already known about this topic? Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) can classify malignant and benign skin diseases at a level equivalent to dermatologists. The lips are a unique feature in terms of histology and morphology. Previous studies of DCNNs have not investigated tumours on specific locations. What does this study add? This study shows that DCNNs can distinguish rare malignant and benign lip disorders at the same rate as dermatologists. DCNNs can help nondermatologists to distinguish malignant lip diseases. What are the clinical implications of this work? DCNNs can distinguish malignant and benign skin diseases even at specific locations such as the lips, as well as board-certified dermatologists. Malignant lip diseases are rare and difficult for less trained doctors to differentiate them from benign lesions. This study shows that in dermatology, DCNN can help improve decision-making processes for rare skin diseases in specific areas of the body.

Single layer graphene induces load-bearing molecular layering at the hexadecane-steel interface

The influence of a single layer graphene on the interface between a polished steel surface and the model lubricant hexadecane is explored by high-resolution force microscopy. Nanometer-scale friction is reduced by a factor of three on graphene compared to the steel substrate, with an ordered layer of hexadecane adsorbed on the graphene. Graphene furthermore induces a molecular ordering in the confined lubricant with an average range of 4-5 layers and with a strongly increased load-bearing capacity compared to the lubricant on the bare steel substrate.

First Observation of the Directed Flow of D^{0} and D^{0}[over ¯] in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV

We report the first measurement of rapidity-odd directed flow (v_{1}) for D^{0} and D^{0}[over ¯] mesons at midrapidity (|y|<0.8) in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV using the STAR detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. In 10-80% Au+Au collisions, the slope of the v_{1} rapidity dependence (dv_{1}/dy), averaged over D^{0} and D^{0}[over ¯] mesons, is -0.080±0.017(stat)±0.016(syst) for transverse momentum p_{T} above 1.5  GeV/c. The absolute value of D^{0} meson dv_{1}/dy is about 25 times larger than that for charged kaons, with 3.4σ significance. These data give a unique insight into the initial tilt of the produced matter, and offer constraints on the geometric and transport parameters of the hot QCD medium created in relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

P5350Atrial fibrillation prediction using P wave signal-averaged ECG in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source

Background

Approximately 10–25% of ischemic strokes are of unknown origin. Determining their potential association with subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) is important for proper secondary prevention. We investigated whether SCAF can be predicted by assessing the atrial substrate with signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG).

Methods

Between April 2015 and February 2018, we recruited 125 consecutive patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) and 125 patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) patients as control. All participants underwent P wave SAECG at baseline and ESUS patients were followed up with ECG and Holter ECG, at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months after discharge, and every 12 months thereafter.

Results

In the ESUS group (69 males, 68.4±12.1 years), 32 (25.6%) patients were diagnosed with SCAF during follow-up. There were no significant differences between both groups in terms of P wave duration [PWD] (ESUS vs. AF, P=0.321). PWD demonstrated a significant predictive efficacy for SCAF detection during follow-up (C-index of standard PWD=0.657, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.552–0.761, P=0.008).

Stroke recurrence occurred in 22 patients (17.6%) and was significantly associated with PWD but not SCAF (odds ratio 2.756, 95% CI 1.061–7.161, P=0.037).

Conclusion

PWD, an ECG biomarker associated with atrial substrate directly contributes to AF and ESUS, is useful for predicting SCAF. The potential for using this simple ECG biomarker for screening for SCAF amongst ESUS patients merits further exploration.

Polarization of Λ (Λ[over ¯]) Hyperons along the Beam Direction in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV

The Λ (Λ[over ¯]) hyperon polarization along the beam direction has been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV, for the first time in heavy-ion collisions. The polarization dependence on the hyperons' emission angle relative to the elliptic flow plane exhibits a second harmonic sine modulation, indicating a quadrupole pattern of the vorticity component along the beam direction, expected due to elliptic flow. The polarization is found to increase in more peripheral collisions, and shows no strong transverse momentum (p_{T}) dependence at p_{T} greater than 1  GeV/c. The magnitude of the signal is about 5 times smaller than those predicted by hydrodynamic and multiphase transport models; the observed phase of the emission angle dependence is also opposite to these model predictions. In contrast, the kinematic vorticity calculations in the blast-wave model tuned to reproduce particle spectra, elliptic flow, and the azimuthal dependence of the Gaussian source radii measured with the Hanbury Brown-Twiss intensity interferometry technique reproduce well the modulation phase measured in the data and capture the centrality and transverse momentum dependence of the polarization signal.

Observation of Excess J/ψ Yield at Very Low Transverse Momenta in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV and U+U Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=193 GeV

We report on the first measurements of J/ψ production at very low transverse momentum (p_{T}<0.2  GeV/c) in hadronic Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV and U+U collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=193  GeV. Remarkably, the inferred nuclear modification factor of J/ψ at midrapidity in Au+Au (U+U) collisions reaches about 24 (52) for p_{T}<0.05  GeV/c in the 60%-80% collision centrality class. This noteworthy enhancement cannot be explained by hadronic production accompanied by cold and hot medium effects. In addition, the dN/dt distribution of J/ψ for the very low p_{T} range is presented for the first time. The distribution is consistent with that expected from the Au nucleus and shows a hint of interference. Comparison of the measurements to theoretical calculations of coherent production shows that the excess yield can be described reasonably well and reveals a partial disruption of coherent production in semicentral collisions, perhaps due to the violent hadronic interactions. Incorporating theoretical calculations, the results strongly suggest that the dramatic enhancement of J/ψ yield observed at extremely low p_{T} originates from coherent photon-nucleus interactions. In particular, coherently produced J/ψ's in violent hadronic collisions may provide a novel probe of the quark-gluon plasma.

Nuclear Dependence of the Transverse Single-Spin Asymmetry in the Production of Charged Hadrons at Forward Rapidity in Polarized p+p, p+Al, and p+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV

We report on the nuclear dependence of transverse single-spin asymmetries (TSSAs) in the production of positively charged hadrons in polarized p^{↑}+p, p^{↑}+Al, and p^{↑}+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV. The measurements have been performed at forward rapidity (1.4<η<2.4) over the range of transverse momentum (1.8<p_{T}<7.0  GeV/c) and Feynman x (0.1<x_{F}<0.2). We observed positive asymmetries for positively charged hadrons in p^{↑}+p collisions, and significantly reduced asymmetries in p^{↑}+A collisions. These results reveal a nuclear dependence of TSSAs for charged-hadron production in a regime where perturbative techniques are applicable. These results provide new opportunities to use p^{↑}+A collisions as a tool to investigate the rich phenomena behind TSSAs in hadronic collisions and to use TSSAs as a new handle in studying small-system collisions.

Melioidosis in patients with suspected tuberculosis in Cambodia: a single-center cross-sectional study

SETTING

Melioidosis-Burkholderia pseudomallei infection-is increasingly recognized in Cambodia, a country with a high incidence of tuberculosis (TB). Melioidosis and TB can be clinically indistinguishable.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the proportion of patients with clinically suspected TB who had melioidosis by testing sputum for B. pseudomallei.

DESIGN

This was a prospective, 6-month cross-sectional single-center study at a Cambodian provincial referral hospital among patients with suspicion of TB who provided sputum specimens for testing. TB was diagnosed using sputum Xpert^® MTB/RIF molecular assay or culture; melioidosis was diagnosed using sputum culture for B. pseudomallei.

RESULTS

Of 404 patients evaluated for possible TB, 52 (12.9%, 95%CI 9.8-16.5) had TB. Four patients (1.0%, 95%CI 0.3-2.5) had melioidosis; none had concurrent TB or an existing medical risk factor for melioidosis, although two were farmers, an occupational risk factor.

CONCLUSION

One per cent of patients being evaluated for TB at a Cambodian provincial referral hospital had culture-proven respiratory melioidosis, a highly lethal infection. None had previously recognized medical conditions that would increase their risk of melioidosis. Testing for melioidosis should be considered in patients presenting with suspected TB in Cambodia.

P14.104 The outcomes of conservatively observed asymptomatic nonfunctioning pituitary adenomas with optic nerve compression

BACKGROUND

We investigated the natural history of asymptomatic nonfunctioning pituitary adenomas (NFPAs) abutting on optic nerve.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Eighty-three patients with asymptomatic NFPAs with documented optic nerve compression on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at the time of detection between 2000 and 2016 were included in this study. Patients were evaluated with a hormone test, visual acuity test, visual field test and MRI at the time of diagnosis, and then, yearly, without any treatment (including surgery and radiation).

RESULTS

The mean age was 57.7±13.6 (range, 15 - 81) years. The mean follow-up duration was 66.6±39.0 (range, 12 - 184) months. Tumor volume growth ≥ 20% was observed in 64 (77.1%) patients. Ten (12.2%) patients experienced any kind of hormonal dysfunction, and gonadotropin deficiency was the most common type of hormonal deficiency [n=9 (10.8%)]. Visual deterioration quantified by Visual Impairment Scale was seen 27 (32.5%) patients. There was no statistically significant factor for tumor growth or visual aggravation. Fourteen (16.9%) patients eventually underwent tumor resection. From multivariate analysis, the significant predictors for eventual surgical intervention were cavernous sinus invasion (OR=20.95; 95% CI, 2.754–159.3; p=0.003) and last follow-up visual field defect score (OR=1.170; 95% CI, 1.049–1.305; p=0.005). All patients who underwent surgery did not experience any neurologic or endocrinological deficits postoperatively.

CONCLUSION

The clinical outcomes of conservatively observed NFPAs with optic nerve compression can be acceptable. The decision for surgical intervention should be made by balancing the risk and benefits.