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Judson SD, Dowdy DW. Modeling zoonotic and vector-borne viruses. Curr Opin Virol 2024; 67:101428. [PMID: 39047313 PMCID: PMC11292992 DOI: 10.1016/j.coviro.2024.101428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2024] [Accepted: 07/06/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024]
Abstract
The 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic galvanized tremendous growth in models for emerging zoonotic and vector-borne viruses. Therefore, we have reviewed the main goals and methods of models to guide scientists and decision-makers. The elements of models for emerging viruses vary across spectrums: from understanding the past to forecasting the future, using data across space and time, and using statistical versus mechanistic methods. Hybrid/ensemble models and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities for modeling. Despite this progress, challenges remain in translating models into actionable decisions, particularly in areas at highest risk for viral disease outbreaks. To address this issue, we must identify gaps in models for specific viruses, strengthen validation, and involve policymakers in model development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seth D Judson
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
| | - David W Dowdy
- Division of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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2
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Nsengimana I, Juma J, Roesel K, Gasana MN, Ndayisenga F, Muvunyi CM, Hakizimana E, Hakizimana JN, Eastwood G, Chengula AA, Bett B, Kasanga CJ, Oyola SO. Genomic Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever Virus Involved in the 2018 and 2022 Outbreaks in Livestock in Rwanda. Viruses 2024; 16:1148. [PMID: 39066310 PMCID: PMC11281637 DOI: 10.3390/v16071148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2024] [Revised: 07/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/11/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne transboundary zoonosis, was first confirmed in Rwanda's livestock in 2012 and since then sporadic cases have been reported almost every year. In 2018, the country experienced its first large outbreak, which was followed by a second one in 2022. To determine the circulating virus lineages and their ancestral origin, two genome sequences from the 2018 outbreak, and thirty-six, forty-one, and thirty-eight sequences of small (S), medium (M), and large (L) genome segments, respectively, from the 2022 outbreak were generated. All of the samples from the 2022 outbreak were collected from slaughterhouses. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian-based phylogenetic analyses were performed. The findings showed that RVF viruses belonging to a single lineage, C, were circulating during the two outbreaks, and shared a recent common ancestor with RVF viruses isolated in Uganda between 2016 and 2019, and were also linked to the 2006/2007 largest East Africa RVF outbreak reported in Kenya, Tanzania, and Somalia. Alongside the wild-type viruses, genetic evidence of the RVFV Clone 13 vaccine strain was found in slaughterhouse animals, demonstrating a possible occupational risk of exposure with unknown outcome for people working in meat-related industry. These results provide additional evidence of the ongoing wide spread of RVFV lineage C in Africa and emphasize the need for an effective national and international One Health-based collaborative approach in responding to RVF emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isidore Nsengimana
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Parasitology and Biotechnology, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3000, Tanzania
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases, SACIDS Foundation for One Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
- Rwanda Inspectorate, Competition and Consumer Protection Authority, Kigali P.O. Box 375, Rwanda
- Department of Entomology, and Center for Emerging Zoonotic & Arthropod-Borne Pathogens (CeZAP), Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
| | - John Juma
- International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi P.O. Box 30709, Kenya
| | - Kristina Roesel
- International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi P.O. Box 30709, Kenya
| | - Methode N. Gasana
- Department of Animal Resource Research and Technology Transfer, Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), Huye P.O. Box 5016, Rwanda
| | - Fabrice Ndayisenga
- Department of Animal Resource Research and Technology Transfer, Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), Huye P.O. Box 5016, Rwanda
| | | | | | - Jean N. Hakizimana
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases, SACIDS Foundation for One Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
| | - Gillian Eastwood
- Department of Entomology, and Center for Emerging Zoonotic & Arthropod-Borne Pathogens (CeZAP), Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
| | - Augustino A. Chengula
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Parasitology and Biotechnology, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3000, Tanzania
| | - Bernard Bett
- International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi P.O. Box 30709, Kenya
| | - Christopher J. Kasanga
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Parasitology and Biotechnology, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3000, Tanzania
| | - Samuel O. Oyola
- International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi P.O. Box 30709, Kenya
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3
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Campbell LP, Bauer AM, Tavares Y, Guralnick RP, Reuman D. Broadscale spatial synchrony in a West Nile virus mosquito vector across multiple timescales. Sci Rep 2024; 14:12479. [PMID: 38816487 PMCID: PMC11139987 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-62384-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2024] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Insects often exhibit irruptive population dynamics determined by environmental conditions. We examine if populations of the Culex tarsalis mosquito, a West Nile virus (WNV) vector, fluctuate synchronously over broad spatial extents and multiple timescales and whether climate drives synchrony in Cx. tarsalis, especially at annual timescales, due to the synchronous influence of temperature, precipitation, and/or humidity. We leveraged mosquito collections across 9 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites distributed in the interior West and Great Plains region USA over a 45-month period, and associated gridMET climate data. We utilized wavelet phasor mean fields and wavelet linear models to quantify spatial synchrony for mosquitoes and climate and to calculate the importance of climate in explaining Cx. tarsalis synchrony. We also tested whether the strength of spatial synchrony may vary directionally across years. We found significant annual synchrony in Cx. tarsalis, and short-term synchrony during a single period in 2018. Mean minimum temperature was a significant predictor of annual Cx. tarsalis spatial synchrony, and we found a marginally significant decrease in annual Cx. tarsalis synchrony. Significant Cx. tarsalis synchrony during 2018 coincided with an anomalous increase in precipitation. This work provides a valuable step toward understanding broadscale synchrony in a WNV vector.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lindsay P Campbell
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL, 32962, USA.
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
| | - Amely M Bauer
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL, 32962, USA
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Yasmin Tavares
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | | | - Daniel Reuman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Center for Ecological Research, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66047, USA
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4
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Tchonkouang RD, Onyeaka H, Nkoutchou H. Assessing the vulnerability of food supply chains to climate change-induced disruptions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 920:171047. [PMID: 38373458 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Revised: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 02/21/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most significant challenges worldwide. There is strong evidence from research that climate change will impact several food chain-related elements such as agricultural output, incomes, prices, food access, food quality, and food safety. This scoping review seeks to outline the state of knowledge of the food supply chain's vulnerability to climate change and to identify existing literature that may guide future research, policy, and decision-making aimed at enhancing the resilience of the food supply chain. A total of 1526 publications were identified using the SCOPUS database, of which 67 were selected for the present study. The vulnerability assessment methods as well as the adaptation and resilience measures that have been employed to alleviate the impact of climate change in the food supply chain were discussed. The results revealed a growing number of publications providing evidence of the weakening of the food supply chain due to climate change and extreme weather events. Our assessment demonstrated the need to broaden research into the entire food supply chain and various forms of climatic variability because most studies have concentrated on the relationships between climatic fluctuations (especially extreme rainfall, temperatures, and drought) and production. A lack of knowledge about the effects of climate change on the food supply chain and the underlying socio-economic consequences could result in underperformance or failure of the food supply chain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rose Daphnee Tchonkouang
- MED-Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & Change-Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
| | - Helen Onyeaka
- School of Chemical Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom.
| | - Hugue Nkoutchou
- Public Policy in Africa Initiative (PPiAI), Douala, Cameroon
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5
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Chemison A, Ramstein G, Jones A, Morse A, Caminade C. Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3904. [PMID: 38365824 PMCID: PMC10873308 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-53774-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, and is considered a priority pathogen by the WHO. RVF epidemics mostly occur in Africa and can decimate livestock herds, causing significant economic losses and posing health risks for humans. RVF transmission is associated with the occurrence of El Niño events that cause floods in eastern Africa and favour the emergence of mosquitoes in wetlands. Different risk models have been developed to forecast RVF transmission risk but very few studies have validated models at pan-African scale. This study aims to validate the skill of the Liverpool Rift Valley Fever model (LRVF) in reproducing RVF epidemics over Africa and to explore the relationship between simulated climatic suitability for RVF transmission and large-scale climate modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Our results show that the LRVF model correctly simulates RVF transmission hotspots and reproduces large epidemics that affected African countries. LRVF was able to correctly reproduce major RVF epidemics in Somalia, Kenya, Zambia and to a lesser extent for Mauritania and Senegal. The positive phases of ENSO and DMI are associated with an increased risk of RVF over the Horn of Africa, with important time lags. Following research activities should focus on the development of predictive modelling systems at different time scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alizée Chemison
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Gilles Ramstein
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Anne Jones
- IBM Research Laboratory, Daresbury, WA4 4AD, UK
| | - Andy Morse
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZT, UK
| | - Cyril Caminade
- Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, 34151, Trieste, Italy.
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Mumin FI, Fenton A, Osman AY, Mor SM. Zoonoses research in Somalia: A scoping review using a One Health approach. One Health 2023; 17:100626. [PMID: 38024257 PMCID: PMC10665144 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Zoonoses are likely to cause a substantial burden on both human and animal health systems in Somalia, given the close proximity between the pastoralist majority and their livestock. However, decades of instability leading to weak disease surveillance have meant that data on the burden of zoonoses is lacking. The aim of this scoping review was to assess and synthesize the available literature on the presence and burden of zoonoses in Somalia. We used keywords to search Web of Science for relevant publications. Studies were included if they contained relevant data on a zoonosis and were undertaken in Somalia or were undertaken in another country where exposure could reasonably be assumed to have occurred in Somalia (e.g., migrants/refugees, returning soldiers, exported animals). Studies were not included if they focused on Somali ethnic communities permanently living elsewhere or if zoonotic aspects were not considered. We extracted data on disease(s) reported, geographic focus, data reported (human, animal, environment), study design and author affiliation. A total of 22 zoonotic infections were documented in 76 publications. The most frequently studied diseases were Rift Valley Fever (n = 15, 17%), brucellosis (n = 13, 14%) and hepatitis E (n = 10, 11%). Around 30% of papers reported data from relevant populations outside Somalia. Only 18 papers undertook laboratory analysis within Somalia. Most papers reported data on humans (45%) and animals (36%) with limited research on the environmental domain. Descriptive studies (47%) dominated and most were led by non-Somali researchers (89% in first authors and 95% of last authors). This study highlights the need for well-designed zoonoses research in Somalia supported by capacity building of local researchers and investments in diagnostic laboratories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Farah I. Mumin
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
- International Livestock Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Red Sea University, Bosaso, Puntland State, Somalia
| | - Andy Fenton
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
| | - Abdinasir Yusuf Osman
- Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London, United Kingdom
- National Institute of Health, Ministry of Health, Mogadishu, Somalia
| | - Siobhan M. Mor
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
- International Livestock Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Muturi M, Mwatondo A, Nijhof AM, Akoko J, Nyamota R, Makori A, Nyamai M, Nthiwa D, Wambua L, Roesel K, Thumbi SM, Bett B. Ecological and subject-level drivers of interepidemic Rift Valley fever virus exposure in humans and livestock in Northern Kenya. Sci Rep 2023; 13:15342. [PMID: 37714941 PMCID: PMC10504342 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-42596-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Nearly a century after the first reports of Rift Valley fever (RVF) were documented in Kenya, questions on the transmission dynamics of the disease remain. Specifically, data on viral maintenance in the quiescent years between epidemics is limited. We implemented a cross-sectional study in northern Kenya to determine the seroprevalence, risk factors, and ecological predictors of RVF in humans and livestock during an interepidemic period. Six hundred seventy-six human and 1,864 livestock samples were screened for anti-RVF Immunoglobulin G (IgG). Out of the 1,864 livestock samples tested for IgG, a subset of 1,103 samples was randomly selected for additional testing to detect the presence of anti-RVFV Immunoglobulin M (IgM). The anti-RVF virus (RVFV) IgG seropositivity in livestock and humans was 21.7% and 28.4%, respectively. RVFV IgM was detected in 0.4% of the livestock samples. Participation in the slaughter of livestock and age were positively associated with RVFV exposure in humans, while age was a significant factor in livestock. We detected significant interaction between rainfall and elevation's influence on livestock seropositivity, while in humans, elevation was negatively associated with RVF virus exposure. The linear increase of human and livestock exposure with age suggests an endemic transmission cycle, further corroborated by the detection of IgM antibodies in livestock.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathew Muturi
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, Dahlem Research School of Biomedical Sciences (DRS), Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
- Kenya Zoonotic Disease Unit, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya.
- Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis-University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
| | - Athman Mwatondo
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Kenya Zoonotic Disease Unit, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Ard M Nijhof
- Veterinary Centre for Resistance Research, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Institute for Parasitology and Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Freie Univesität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - James Akoko
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Anita Makori
- Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis-University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
- Paul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Mutono Nyamai
- Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis-University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
- Paul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Daniel Nthiwa
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Embu, Embu, Kenya
| | - Lilian Wambua
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - S M Thumbi
- Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis-University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
- Paul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
- Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Bernard Bett
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
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Chapman NS, Hulswit RJG, Westover JLB, Stass R, Paesen GC, Binshtein E, Reidy JX, Engdahl TB, Handal LS, Flores A, Gowen BB, Bowden TA, Crowe JE. Multifunctional human monoclonal antibody combination mediates protection against Rift Valley fever virus at low doses. Nat Commun 2023; 14:5650. [PMID: 37704627 PMCID: PMC10499838 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41171-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2022] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The zoonotic Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) can cause severe disease in humans and has pandemic potential, yet no approved vaccine or therapy exists. Here we describe a dual-mechanism human monoclonal antibody (mAb) combination against RVFV that is effective at minimal doses in a lethal mouse model of infection. We structurally analyze and characterize the binding mode of a prototypical potent Gn domain-A-binding antibody that blocks attachment and of an antibody that inhibits infection by abrogating the fusion process as previously determined. Surprisingly, the Gn domain-A antibody does not directly block RVFV Gn interaction with the host receptor low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) as determined by a competitive assay. This study identifies a rationally designed combination of human mAbs deserving of future investigation for use in humans against RVFV infection. Using a two-pronged mechanistic approach, we demonstrate the potent efficacy of a rationally designed combination mAb therapeutic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathaniel S Chapman
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
| | - Ruben J G Hulswit
- Division of Structural Biology, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
| | - Jonna L B Westover
- Department of Animal, Dairy and Veterinary Sciences, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322, USA
| | - Robert Stass
- Division of Structural Biology, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
| | - Guido C Paesen
- Division of Structural Biology, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
| | - Elad Binshtein
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
| | - Joseph X Reidy
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
| | - Taylor B Engdahl
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
| | - Laura S Handal
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
| | - Alejandra Flores
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
| | - Brian B Gowen
- Department of Animal, Dairy and Veterinary Sciences, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322, USA
| | - Thomas A Bowden
- Division of Structural Biology, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
| | - James E Crowe
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
- Department of Pediatrics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
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McMillen CM, Chapman NS, Hoehl RM, Skvarca LB, Schwarz MM, Handal LS, Crowe JE, Hartman AL. A highly potent human neutralizing antibody prevents vertical transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in a rat model. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4507. [PMID: 37495594 PMCID: PMC10372071 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40187-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging mosquito-transmitted virus that circulates in livestock and humans in Africa and the Middle East. Outbreaks lead to high rates of miscarriages in domesticated livestock. Women are also at risk of vertical virus transmission and late-term miscarriages. MAb RVFV-268 is a highly potent recombinant neutralizing human monoclonal antibody that targets RVFV. Here we show that mAb RVFV-268 reduces viral replication in rat placenta explant cultures and prevents vertical transmission in a rat model of congenital RVF. Passive transfer of mAb RVFV-268 from mother to fetus occurs as early as 6 h after administration and persists through 24 h. Administering mAb RVFV-268 2 h prior to RVFV challenge or 24 h post-challenge protects the dams and offspring from RVFV infection. These findings support mAb RVFV-268 as a pre- and post-infection treatment to subvert RVFV infection and vertical transmission, thus protecting the mother and offspring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cynthia M McMillen
- University of Pittsburgh, Center for Vaccine Research, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Nathaniel S Chapman
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Ryan M Hoehl
- University of Pittsburgh, Center for Vaccine Research, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Lauren B Skvarca
- University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Magee-Womens Hospital, Department of Pathology, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Madeline M Schwarz
- University of Pittsburgh, Center for Vaccine Research, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Laura S Handal
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - James E Crowe
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, Nashville, TN, USA.
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Nashville, TN, USA.
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Department of Pediatrics, Nashville, TN, USA.
| | - Amy L Hartman
- University of Pittsburgh, Center for Vaccine Research, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
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10
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Sulaimon TA, Chaters GL, Nyasebwa OM, Swai ES, Cleaveland S, Enright J, Kao RR, Johnson PCD. Modeling the effectiveness of targeting Rift Valley fever virus vaccination using imperfect network information. Front Vet Sci 2023; 10:1049633. [PMID: 37456963 PMCID: PMC10340087 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1049633] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Livestock movements contribute to the spread of several infectious diseases. Data on livestock movements can therefore be harnessed to guide policy on targeted interventions for controlling infectious livestock diseases, including Rift Valley fever (RVF)-a vaccine-preventable arboviral fever. Detailed livestock movement data are known to be useful for targeting control efforts including vaccination. These data are available in many countries, however, such data are generally lacking in others, including many in East Africa, where multiple RVF outbreaks have been reported in recent years. Available movement data are imperfect, and the impact of this uncertainty in the utility of movement data on informing targeting of vaccination is not fully understood. Here, we used a network simulation model to describe the spread of RVF within and between 398 wards in northern Tanzania connected by cattle movements, on which we evaluated the impact of targeting vaccination using imperfect movement data. We show that pre-emptive vaccination guided by only market movement permit data could prevent large outbreaks. Targeted control (either by the risk of RVF introduction or onward transmission) at any level of imperfect movement information is preferred over random vaccination, and any improvement in information reliability is advantageous to their effectiveness. Our modeling approach demonstrates how targeted interventions can be effectively used to inform animal and public health policies for disease control planning. This is particularly valuable in settings where detailed data on livestock movements are either unavailable or imperfect due to resource limitations in data collection, as well as challenges associated with poor compliance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tijani A. Sulaimon
- The Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, United Kingdom
- Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, United Kingdom
| | - Gemma L. Chaters
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) Programme, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Obed M. Nyasebwa
- Veterinary Council of Tanzania, Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries, Dodoma, Tanzania
| | - Emanuel S. Swai
- Department of Veterinary Services, Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries, Dodoma, Tanzania
| | - Sarah Cleaveland
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Jessica Enright
- School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Rowland R. Kao
- The Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, United Kingdom
- Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, United Kingdom
- School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Paul C. D. Johnson
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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11
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Telford C, Nyakarahuka L, Waller L, Kitron U, Shoemaker T. Geostatistical Modeling and Prediction of Rift Valley Fever Seroprevalence among Livestock in Uganda. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2023; 108:712-721. [PMID: 36878208 PMCID: PMC10076992 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 03/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Uganda reported cases of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) for the first time in almost 50 years in 2016, following an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) that caused four human infections, two of which resulted in death. Subsequent outbreak investigation serosurveys found high seroprevalence of IgG antibodies without evidence of acute infection or IgM antibodies, suggesting the possibility of undetected RVFV circulation prior to the outbreak. After the 2016 outbreak investigation, a serosurvey was conducted in 2017 among domesticated livestock herds across Uganda. Sampling data were incorporated into a geostatistical model to estimate RVF seroprevalence among cattle, sheep, and goats. Variables resulting in the best fit to RVF seroprevalence sampling data included annual variability in monthly precipitation and enhanced vegetation index, topographic wetness index, log human population density percent increase, and livestock species. Individual species RVF seroprevalence prediction maps were created for cattle, sheep, and goats, and a composite livestock prediction was created based on the estimated density of each species across the country. Seroprevalence was greater in cattle compared with sheep and goats. Predicted seroprevalence was greatest in the central and northwestern quadrant of the country, surrounding Lake Victoria, and along the Southern Cattle Corridor. We identified areas that experienced conditions conducive to potential increased RVFV circulation in 2021 in central Uganda. An improved understanding of the determinants of RVFV circulation and locations with high probability of elevated RVF seroprevalence can guide prioritization of disease surveillance and risk mitigation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carson Telford
- Viral Special Pathogens Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
- Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Luke Nyakarahuka
- Uganda Virus Research Institute
- Department of Biosecurity, Ecosystems and Veterinary Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Lance Waller
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Trevor Shoemaker
- Viral Special Pathogens Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
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12
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Whitlock AOB, Bird BH, Ghersi B, Davison AJ, Hughes J, Nichols J, Vučak M, Amara E, Bangura J, Lavalie EG, Kanu MC, Kanu OT, Sjodin A, Remien CH, Nuismer SL. Identifying the genetic basis of viral spillover using Lassa virus as a test case. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2023; 10:221503. [PMID: 36968239 PMCID: PMC10031424 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.221503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The rate at which zoonotic viruses spill over into the human population varies significantly over space and time. Remarkably, we do not yet know how much of this variation is attributable to genetic variation within viral populations. This gap in understanding arises because we lack methods of genetic analysis that can be easily applied to zoonotic viruses, where the number of available viral sequences is often limited, and opportunistic sampling introduces significant population stratification. Here, we explore the feasibility of using patterns of shared ancestry to correct for population stratification, enabling genome-wide association methods to identify genetic substitutions associated with spillover into the human population. Using a combination of phylogenetically structured simulations and Lassa virus sequences collected from humans and rodents in Sierra Leone, we demonstrate that existing methods do not fully correct for stratification, leading to elevated error rates. We also demonstrate, however, that the Type I error rate can be substantially reduced by confining the analysis to a less-stratified region of the phylogeny, even in an already-small dataset. Using this method, we detect two candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with spillover in the Lassa virus polymerase gene and provide generalized recommendations for the collection and analysis of zoonotic viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Brian H. Bird
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Bruno Ghersi
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | | | - Joseph Hughes
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jenna Nichols
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
| | - Matej Vučak
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
| | - Emmanuel Amara
- University of Makeni and University of California, Davis One Health Program, Makeni, Sierra Leone
| | - James Bangura
- University of Makeni and University of California, Davis One Health Program, Makeni, Sierra Leone
| | - Edwin G. Lavalie
- University of Makeni and University of California, Davis One Health Program, Makeni, Sierra Leone
| | - Marilyn C. Kanu
- University of Makeni and University of California, Davis One Health Program, Makeni, Sierra Leone
| | - Osman T. Kanu
- University of Makeni and University of California, Davis One Health Program, Makeni, Sierra Leone
| | - Anna Sjodin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Christopher H. Remien
- Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Scott L. Nuismer
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
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13
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Jain S, Khaiboullina S, Martynova E, Morzunov S, Baranwal M. Epidemiology of Ebolaviruses from an Etiological Perspective. Pathogens 2023; 12:pathogens12020248. [PMID: 36839520 PMCID: PMC9963726 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12020248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Revised: 01/21/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Since the inception of the ebolavirus in 1976, 32 outbreaks have resulted in nearly 15,350 deaths in more than ten countries of the African continent. In the last decade, the largest (2013-2016) and second largest (2018-2020) ebolavirus outbreaks have occurred in West Africa (mainly Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The 2013-2016 outbreak indicated an alarming geographical spread of the virus and was the first to qualify as an epidemic. Hence, it is imperative to halt ebolavirus progression and develop effective countermeasures. Despite several research efforts, ebolaviruses' natural hosts and secondary reservoirs still elude the scientific world. The primary source responsible for infecting the index case is also unknown for most outbreaks. In this review, we summarize the history of ebolavirus outbreaks with a focus on etiology, natural hosts, zoonotic reservoirs, and transmission mechanisms. We also discuss the reasons why the African continent is the most affected region and identify steps to contain this virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sahil Jain
- Department of Biotechnology, Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology, Patiala 147004, Punjab, India
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Svetlana Khaiboullina
- Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology, Kazan Federal University, 420008 Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia
| | - Ekaterina Martynova
- Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology, Kazan Federal University, 420008 Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia
| | - Sergey Morzunov
- Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
- Correspondence: (S.M.); or (M.B.); Tel.: +1-775-682-6230 (S.M.); +91-175-2393118 (M.B.); Fax: +91-175-2364498 (M.B.)
| | - Manoj Baranwal
- Department of Biotechnology, Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology, Patiala 147004, Punjab, India
- Correspondence: (S.M.); or (M.B.); Tel.: +1-775-682-6230 (S.M.); +91-175-2393118 (M.B.); Fax: +91-175-2364498 (M.B.)
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14
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Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010339. [PMID: 36399500 PMCID: PMC9718419 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Revised: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis which has been reported across Africa including the northernmost edge, South West Indian Ocean islands, and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus is responsible for high abortion rates and mortality in young ruminants, with economic impacts in affected countries. To date, RVF epidemiological mechanisms are not fully understood, due to the multiplicity of implicated vertebrate hosts, vectors, and ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models are useful tools to develop our understanding of complex systems, and mechanistic models are particularly suited to data-scarce settings. Here, we performed a systematic review of mechanistic models studying RVF, to explore their diversity and their contribution to the understanding of this disease epidemiology. Researching Pubmed and Scopus databases (October 2021), we eventually selected 48 papers, presenting overall 49 different models with numerical application to RVF. We categorized models as theoretical, applied, or grey, depending on whether they represented a specific geographical context or not, and whether they relied on an extensive use of data. We discussed their contributions to the understanding of RVF epidemiology, and highlighted that theoretical and applied models are used differently yet meet common objectives. Through the examination of model features, we identified research questions left unexplored across scales, such as the role of animal mobility, as well as the relative contributions of host and vector species to transmission. Importantly, we noted a substantial lack of justification when choosing a functional form for the force of infection. Overall, we showed a great diversity in RVF models, leading to important progress in our comprehension of epidemiological mechanisms. To go further, data gaps must be filled, and modelers need to improve their code accessibility.
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15
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Lerch A, Ten Bosch QA, L'Azou Jackson M, Bettis AA, Bernuzzi M, Murphy GAV, Tran QM, Huber JH, Siraj AS, Bron GM, Elliott M, Hartlage CS, Koh S, Strimbu K, Walters M, Perkins TA, Moore SM. Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens. BMC Med 2022; 20:202. [PMID: 35705986 PMCID: PMC9200440 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02405-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite large outbreaks in humans seeming improbable for a number of zoonotic pathogens, several pose a concern due to their epidemiological characteristics and evolutionary potential. To enable effective responses to these pathogens in the event that they undergo future emergence, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is advancing the development of vaccines for several pathogens prioritized by the World Health Organization. A major challenge in this pursuit is anticipating demand for a vaccine stockpile to support outbreak response. METHODS We developed a modeling framework for outbreak response for emerging zoonoses under three reactive vaccination strategies to assess sustainable vaccine manufacturing needs, vaccine stockpile requirements, and the potential impact of the outbreak response. This framework incorporates geographically variable zoonotic spillover rates, human-to-human transmission, and the implementation of reactive vaccination campaigns in response to disease outbreaks. As proof of concept, we applied the framework to four priority pathogens: Lassa virus, Nipah virus, MERS coronavirus, and Rift Valley virus. RESULTS Annual vaccine regimen requirements for a population-wide strategy ranged from > 670,000 (95% prediction interval 0-3,630,000) regimens for Lassa virus to 1,190,000 (95% PrI 0-8,480,000) regimens for Rift Valley fever virus, while the regimens required for ring vaccination or targeting healthcare workers (HCWs) were several orders of magnitude lower (between 1/25 and 1/700) than those required by a population-wide strategy. For each pathogen and vaccination strategy, reactive vaccination typically prevented fewer than 10% of cases, because of their presently low R0 values. Targeting HCWs had a higher per-regimen impact than population-wide vaccination. CONCLUSIONS Our framework provides a flexible methodology for estimating vaccine stockpile needs and the geographic distribution of demand under a range of outbreak response scenarios. Uncertainties in our model estimates highlight several knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to target vulnerable populations more accurately. These include surveillance gaps that mask the true geographic distribution of each pathogen, details of key routes of spillover from animal reservoirs to humans, and the role of human-to-human transmission outside of healthcare settings. In addition, our estimates are based on the current epidemiology of each pathogen, but pathogen evolution could alter vaccine stockpile requirements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anita Lerch
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Quirine A Ten Bosch
- Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Alison A Bettis
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Oslo, Norway
| | - Mauro Bernuzzi
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), London, UK
| | | | - Quan M Tran
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - John H Huber
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Amir S Siraj
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Gebbiena M Bron
- Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Margaret Elliott
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Carson S Hartlage
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Sojung Koh
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Kathyrn Strimbu
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Magdalene Walters
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
| | - Sean M Moore
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
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16
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An unusually long Rift valley fever inter-epizootic period in Zambia: Evidence for enzootic virus circulation and risk for disease outbreak. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010420. [PMID: 35653390 PMCID: PMC9197056 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2021] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease of animals and humans. Although RVF outbreaks are usually reported at 5-15-year intervals in sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia has experienced an unusually long inter-epizootic/-epidemic period of more than three decades. However, serological evidence of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in domestic ruminants during this period underscores the need for comprehensive investigation of the mechanisms of virus perpetuation and disease emergence. Mosquitoes (n = 16,778) captured from eight of the ten provinces of Zambia between April 2014 and May 2019 were pooled (n = 961) and screened for RVFV genome by a pan-phlebo RT-PCR assay. Aedes mosquito pools (n = 85) were further screened by nested RT-PCR assay. Sera from sheep (n = 13), goats (n = 259) and wild ungulates (n = 285) were screened for RVFV antibodies by ELISA while genome detection in pooled sera (n = 276) from domestic (n = 248) and wild ungulates (n = 37) was performed by real-time RT-PCR assay. To examine the association between the long inter-epizootic period and climatic variables, we examined El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, precipitation anomalies, and normalized difference vegetation index. We then derived RVF risk maps by exploring climatic variables that would favor emergence of primary RVFV vectors. While no RVFV genome could be detected in pooled mosquito and serum samples, seroprevalence was significantly high (OR = 8.13, 95% CI [4.63–14.25]) in wild ungulates (33.7%; 96/285) compared to domestic ruminants (5.6%; 16/272). Retrospective analysis of RVF epizootics in Zambia showed a positive correlation between anomalous precipitation (La Niña) and disease emergence. On risk mapping, whilst northern and eastern parts of the country were at high risk, domestic ruminant population density was low (< 21 animals/km2) in these areas compared to low risk areas (>21 animals/km2). Besides evidence of silent circulation of RVFV and the risk of disease emergence in some areas, wildlife may play a role in the maintenance of RVFV in Zambia. Rift valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito borne disease of humans and ruminants. RVF is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa where disease outbreaks are frequently reported in humans and animals. For RVF outbreaks to occur, there has to be presence of the host (animals or humans) and favorable climatic conditions that favor emergence of RVF virus vectors (mosquitoes). Understanding this complex interaction enables us to predict future disease outbreaks and map RVF high risk areas. Above normal rainfall and floods will usually trigger RVF outbreaks. In this study, we conducted surveillance for RVF in mosquitoes, domestic and wild ruminants. We then examined climatic conditions that may have been responsible for past RVF outbreaks and the unusually (>30 years) long inter-epizootic period. Finally, we derived RVF risk maps for Zambia using a combination of climatic variables. We found evidence of RVF infection in both wild and domestic ruminants while there was a positive correlation between past RVF outbreaks and above-normal rainfall. On risk mapping, we found favorable conditions (i.e. high rainfall and risk of flooding) for RVF emergence in northern and eastern parts of the country. Studies like this are important in planning surveillance and disease control programs.
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17
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Faridah L, Fauziah N, Agustian D, Mindra Jaya IGN, Eka Putra R, Ekawardhani S, Hidayath N, Damar Djati I, Carvajal TM, Mayasari W, Ruluwedrata Rinawan F, Watanabe K. Temporal Correlation Between Urban Microclimate, Vector Mosquito Abundance, and Dengue Cases. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2022; 59:1008-1018. [PMID: 35305089 PMCID: PMC9113159 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjac005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a major mosquito-borne viral disease. Studies have reported a strong correlation between weather, the abundance of Aedes aegypti, the vector of DHF virus, and dengue incidence. However, this conclusion has been based on the general climate pattern of wide regions. In general, however, the human population, level of infrastructure, and land-use change in rural and urban areas often produce localized climate patterns that may influence the interaction between climate, vector abundance, and dengue incidence. Thoroughly understanding this correlation will allow the development of a customized and precise local early warning system. To achieve this purpose, we conducted a cohort study, during January-December 2017, in 16 districts in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. In the selected areas, local weather stations and modified light mosquito traps were set up to obtain data regarding daily weather and the abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti. A generalized linear model was applied to analyze the effect of local weather and female adult Ae. aegypti on the number of dengue cases. The result showed a significant non-linear correlation among mosquito abundance, maximum temperature, and dengue cases. Using our model, the data showed that the addition of a single adult Ae. aegypti mosquito increased the risk of dengue infection by 1.8%, while increasing the maximum temperature by one degree decreased the risk by 17%. This finding suggests specific actionable insights needed to supplement existing mosquito eradication programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lia Faridah
- Parasitology Division, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia
- Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Ehime University, Bunkyo-cho 3, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan
- Corresponding author, e-mail: ;
| | - Nisa Fauziah
- Parasitology Division, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Dwi Agustian
- Department of Public Health Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia
| | - I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya
- Department of Statistics Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Ramadhani Eka Putra
- School of Life Sciences and Technology, Insitut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganeca 10, Bandung, 40132, West Java, Indonesia
- Biology Department, Insitut Teknologi Sumatera, Jl. Terusan Ryacudu, Desa Way Hui, Bandar Lampung, 35365, Lampung, Indonesia
| | - Savira Ekawardhani
- Parasitology Division, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Nurrachman Hidayath
- Dengue Study Group, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Prof. Eyckman 38, Bandung, 40131, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Imam Damar Djati
- Faculty of Visual Art and Design, Industrial Design Section, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jl. Ganeca 10, Bandung, 40132, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Thaddeus M Carvajal
- Biological Control Research Unit, Center for Natural Science and Environmental Research-De La Salle University, Taft Ave Manila, Philippines
- Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, Bunkyo-cho 3, Matsuyama, Ehime, Japan
| | - Wulan Mayasari
- Anatomy Division, Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang 45363, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Fedri Ruluwedrata Rinawan
- Department of Public Health Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang Km 21, Sumedang, 45363, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Kozo Watanabe
- Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, Bunkyo-cho 3, Matsuyama, Ehime, Japan
- Corresponding author, e-mail: ;
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18
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Rupasinghe R, Chomel BB, Martínez-López B. Climate change and zoonoses: A review of the current status, knowledge gaps, and future trends. Acta Trop 2022; 226:106225. [PMID: 34758355 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Revised: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), especially those with zoonotic potential, are a growing threat to global health, economy, and safety. The influence of global warming and geoclimatic variations on zoonotic disease epidemiology is evident by alterations in the host, vector, and pathogen dynamics and their interactions. The objective of this article is to review the current literature on the observed impacts of climate change on zoonoses and discuss future trends. We evaluated several climate models to assess the projections of various zoonoses driven by the predicted climate variations. Many climate projections revealed potential geographical expansion and the severity of vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, rodent-borne, and airborne zoonoses. However, there are still some knowledge gaps, and further research needs to be conducted to fully understand the magnitude and consequences of some of these changes. Certainly, by understanding the impact of climate change on zoonosis emergence and distribution, we could better plan for climate mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruwini Rupasinghe
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
| | - Bruno B Chomel
- Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Beatriz Martínez-López
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
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19
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Anyamba A, Damoah R, Kemp A, Small JL, Rostal MK, Bagge W, Cordel C, Brand R, Karesh WB, Paweska JT. Climate Conditions During a Rift Valley Fever Post-epizootic Period in Free State, South Africa, 2014–2019. Front Vet Sci 2022; 8:730424. [PMID: 35187137 PMCID: PMC8848741 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.730424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2021] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) activity in Southern Africa tends to occur during periods of sustained elevated rainfall, cooler than normal conditions, and abundant vegetation cover creating ideal conditions for the increase and propagation of populations of RVFV mosquito vectors. These climatic and ecological conditions are modulated by large-scale tropical-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The aim of this 5-year study was to investigate climatic conditions during Rift Valley fever “post-epizootic” period in Free State province of the Republic of South Africa, which historically experienced the largest RVF outbreaks in this country. We collected satellite-derived rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data since 2014 to understand broad environmental conditions in the years following a period of sustained and widespread large RVF outbreaks (2008–2011) in the region. We found this post-epizootic/interepizootic period to be characterized by below-normal rainfall (~-500 mm), above LSTs (~+12°C), depressed NDVI (60% below normal), and severe drought as manifested particularly during the 2015–2016 growing season. Such conditions reduce the patchwork of appropriate habitats available for emergence of RVFV vectors and diminish chances of RVFV activity. However, the 2016–2017 growing season saw a marked return to somewhat wetter conditions without any reported RVFV transmission. In general, the aggregate vector collections during this 5-year period follow patterns observed in climate measurements. During the 2017–2018 growing season, late and seasonally above average rainfall resulted in a focal RVF outbreak in one location in the study region. This unanticipated event is an indicator of cryptic RVF activity during post-epizootic period and may be a harbinger of RVFV activity in the coming years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Assaf Anyamba
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
- *Correspondence: Assaf Anyamba
| | - Richard Damoah
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
- Physics Department and Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Alan Kemp
- Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jennifer L. Small
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
| | | | | | | | - Robert Brand
- Cuyahoga County Board of Health, Parma, OH, United States
- Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
| | | | - Janusz T. Paweska
- Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
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20
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Brema J, Gautam S, Singh D. Global implications of biodiversity loss on pandemic disease: COVID-19. COVID-19 AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 2022. [PMCID: PMC9334989 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-91307-2.00006-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Unpredictable climate changes and adverse effects on the planetary health due to environmental degradation have led to the rise of concerns regarding human wellness in the recent days. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is said to be originated from wildlife species and represents a significant threat to human health, social, food, and economic security. However, understanding the underlying factors behind the emergence is still rudimentary. This study has made efforts to understand the relationship between the drivers that causes the emergence of infectious diseases (EID). The recent biodiversity crisis that has a severe impact on planetary health is a new contributory factor for the emergence of COVID-19. The biodiversity crisis is an outcome of the land use and land cover (LULC) change, contributing to climate change. In the overall global LULC, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% indirect causes such as climate change. Climate change is one of the critical factors that induce landcover change, associated with increasing consumerism, environmental pollution, excessive livestock production, population explosion, and food production. Geospatial techniques provide a viable solution for monitoring the key drivers responsible for EID, such as climate characteristics, LULC, global land cover under food production, and locations affected by infectious diseases in the past. The study’s main objective is to discuss the possibilities of evolving novel solutions to approach the forecasting of emerging infectious disease spread and its mitigation, bridging the sectors and stakeholders, with due relevance to sustainable development goals (SDGs) and other dimensions from global to community levels.
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Gerken KN, LaBeaud AD, Mandi H, L’Azou Jackson M, Breugelmans JG, King CH. Paving the way for human vaccination against Rift Valley fever virus: A systematic literature review of RVFV epidemiology from 1999 to 2021. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0009852. [PMID: 35073355 PMCID: PMC8812886 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a lethal threat to humans and livestock in many parts of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean. This systematic review's objective was to consolidate understanding of RVFV epidemiology during 1999-2021 and highlight knowledge gaps relevant to plans for human vaccine trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020221622). Reports of RVFV infection or exposure among humans, animals, and/or vectors in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean during the period January 1999 to June 2021 were eligible for inclusion. Online databases were searched for publications, and supplemental materials were recovered from official reports and research colleagues. Exposures were classified into five groups: 1) acute human RVF cases, 2) acute animal cases, 3) human RVFV sero-surveys, 4) animal sero-surveys, and 5) arthropod infections. Human risk factors, circulating RVFV lineages, and surveillance methods were also tabulated. In meta-analysis of risks, summary odds ratios were computed using random-effects modeling. 1104 unique human or animal RVFV transmission events were reported in 39 countries during 1999-2021. Outbreaks among humans or animals occurred at rates of 5.8/year and 12.4/year, respectively, with Mauritania, Madagascar, Kenya, South Africa, and Sudan having the most human outbreak years. Men had greater odds of RVFV infection than women, and animal contact, butchering, milking, and handling aborted material were significantly associated with greater odds of exposure. Animal infection risk was linked to location, proximity to water, and exposure to other herds or wildlife. RVFV was detected in a variety of mosquito vectors during interepidemic periods, confirming ongoing transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE With broad variability in surveillance, case finding, survey design, and RVFV case confirmation, combined with uncertainty about populations-at-risk, there were inconsistent results from location to location. However, it was evident that RVFV transmission is expanding its range and frequency. Gaps assessment indicated the need to harmonize human and animal surveillance and improve diagnostics and genotyping. Given the frequency of RVFV outbreaks, human vaccination has strong potential to mitigate the impact of this now widely endemic disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keli N. Gerken
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - A. Desirée LaBeaud
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Henshaw Mandi
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | - Charles H. King
- Center for Global Health and Diseases, Department of Pathology, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
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22
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Ajuwon BI, Roper K, Richardson A, Lidbury BA. One Health Approach: A Data-Driven Priority for Mitigating Outbreaks of Emerging and Re-Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases. Trop Med Infect Dis 2021; 7:tropicalmed7010004. [PMID: 35051120 PMCID: PMC8780196 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7010004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 12/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper discusses the contributions that One Health principles can make in improving global response to zoonotic infectious disease. We highlight some key benefits of taking a One Health approach to a range of complex infectious disease problems that have defied a more traditional sectoral approach, as well as public health policy and practice, where gaps in surveillance systems need to be addressed. The historical examples demonstrate the scope of One Health, partly from an Australian perspective, but also with an international flavour, and illustrate innovative approaches and outcomes with the types of collaborative partnerships that are required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Busayo I. Ajuwon
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia; (K.R.); (B.A.L.)
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, Kwara State University, Malete 241103, Nigeria
- Correspondence:
| | - Katrina Roper
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia; (K.R.); (B.A.L.)
| | - Alice Richardson
- Statistical Support Network, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia;
| | - Brett A. Lidbury
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia; (K.R.); (B.A.L.)
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Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions. CLIMATE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/cli9110159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.
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Tennant WSD, Cardinale E, Cêtre-Sossah C, Moutroifi Y, Le Godais G, Colombi D, Spencer SEF, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Charafouddine O, Colizza V, Edmunds WJ, Métras R. Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nat Commun 2021; 12:5593. [PMID: 34552082 PMCID: PMC8458460 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 09/02/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004-2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004-2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warren S D Tennant
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
| | - Eric Cardinale
- Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France
- Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, Université de Montpellier, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, INRAE, Montpellier, France
| | - Catherine Cêtre-Sossah
- Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France
- Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, Université de Montpellier, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, INRAE, Montpellier, France
| | - Youssouf Moutroifi
- Vice-Présidence en charge de l'Agriculture, l'Elevage, la Pêche, l'Industrie, l'Energie et l'Artisanat, B.P. 41 Mdé, Moroni, Union of the Comoros
| | - Gilles Le Godais
- Direction de l'Alimentation, de l'Agriculture et de la Forêt de Mayotte, Service de l'Alimentation, 97600, Mamoudzou, France
| | - Davide Colombi
- Aizoon Technology Consulting, Str. del Lionetto 6, Torino, Italy
| | - Simon E F Spencer
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4, 7AL, UK
| | - Mike J Tildesley
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Matt J Keeling
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Onzade Charafouddine
- Vice-Présidence en charge de l'Agriculture, l'Elevage, la Pêche, l'Industrie, l'Energie et l'Artisanat, B.P. 41 Mdé, Moroni, Union of the Comoros
| | - Vittoria Colizza
- INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (Unité Mixte de Recherche en Santé 1136), 75012, Paris, France
| | - W John Edmunds
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Raphaëlle Métras
- INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (Unité Mixte de Recherche en Santé 1136), 75012, Paris, France
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
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Coalson JE, Anderson EJ, Santos EM, Madera Garcia V, Romine JK, Luzingu JK, Dominguez B, Richard DM, Little AC, Hayden MH, Ernst KC. The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2021; 129:96002. [PMID: 34582261 PMCID: PMC8478154 DOI: 10.1289/ehp8887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2020] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events. Although rainfall is highly correlated with mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in humans, less research focuses on understanding the impact of flooding events on disease incidence. This lack of research presents a significant gap in climate change-driven disease forecasting. OBJECTIVES We conducted a scoping review to assess the strength of evidence regarding the potential relationship between flooding and MBD and to determine knowledge gaps. METHODS PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched through 31 December 2020 and supplemented with review of citations in relevant publications. Studies on rainfall were included only if the operationalization allowed for distinction of unusually heavy rainfall events. Data were abstracted by disease (dengue, malaria, or other) and stratified by post-event timing of disease assessment. Studies that conducted statistical testing were summarized in detail. RESULTS From 3,008 initial results, we included 131 relevant studies (dengue n = 45 , malaria n = 61 , other MBD n = 49 ). Dengue studies indicated short-term (< 1 month ) decreases and subsequent (1-4 month) increases in incidence. Malaria studies indicated post-event incidence increases, but the results were mixed, and the temporal pattern was less clear. Statistical evidence was limited for other MBD, though findings suggest that human outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Rift Valley fever, and Japanese encephalitis may follow flooding. DISCUSSION Flooding is generally associated with increased incidence of MBD, potentially following a brief decrease in incidence for some diseases. Methodological inconsistencies significantly limit direct comparison and generalizability of study results. Regions with established MBD and weather surveillance should be leveraged to conduct multisite research to a) standardize the quantification of relevant flooding, b) study nonlinear relationships between rainfall and disease, c) report outcomes at multiple lag periods, and d) investigate interacting factors that modify the likelihood and severity of outbreaks across different settings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8887.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenna E. Coalson
- Center for Insect Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Ellen M. Santos
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Valerie Madera Garcia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - James K. Romine
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Joy K. Luzingu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Brian Dominguez
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Danielle M. Richard
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Ashley C. Little
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Mary H. Hayden
- National Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA
| | - Kacey C. Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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Jonkmans N, D'Acremont V, Flahault A. Scoping future outbreaks: a scoping review on the outbreak prediction of the WHO Blueprint list of priority diseases. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:e006623. [PMID: 34531189 PMCID: PMC8449939 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The WHO's Research and Development Blueprint priority list designates emerging diseases with the potential to generate public health emergencies for which insufficient preventive solutions exist. The list aims to reduce the time to the availability of resources that can avert public health crises. The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic illustrates that an effective method of mitigating such crises is the pre-emptive prediction of outbreaks. This scoping review thus aimed to map and identify the evidence available to predict future outbreaks of the Blueprint diseases. METHODS We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Embase and Web of Science related to the evidence predicting future outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg virus, Zika virus, Lassa fever, Nipah and Henipaviral disease, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Disease X. Prediction methods, outbreak features predicted and implementation of predictions were evaluated. We conducted a narrative and quantitative evidence synthesis to highlight prediction methods that could be further investigated for the prevention of Blueprint diseases and COVID-19 outbreaks. RESULTS Out of 3959 articles identified, we included 58 articles based on inclusion criteria. 5 major prediction methods emerged; the most frequent being spatio-temporal risk maps predicting outbreak risk periods and locations through vector and climate data. Stochastic models were predominant. Rift Valley fever was the most predicted disease. Diseases with complex sociocultural factors such as Ebola were often predicted through multifactorial risk-based estimations. 10% of models were implemented by health authorities. No article predicted Disease X outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS Spatiotemporal models for diseases with strong climatic and vectorial components, as in River Valley fever prediction, may currently best reduce the time to the availability of resources. A wide literature gap exists in the prediction of zoonoses with complex sociocultural and ecological dynamics such as Ebola, COVID-19 and especially Disease X.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nils Jonkmans
- Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Valérie D'Acremont
- Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Antoine Flahault
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université de Genève, Geneva, Switzerland
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Over 100 Years of Rift Valley Fever: A Patchwork of Data on Pathogen Spread and Spillover. Pathogens 2021; 10:pathogens10060708. [PMID: 34198898 PMCID: PMC8227530 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens10060708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2021] [Revised: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
During the past 100 years, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), a mosquito-borne virus, has caused potentially lethal disease in livestock, and has been associated with significant economic losses and trade bans. Spillover to humans occurs and can be fatal. Here, we combined data on RVF disease in humans (22 countries) and animals (37 countries) from 1931 to 2020 with seroprevalence studies from 1950 to 2020 (n = 228) from publicly available databases and publications to draw a more complete picture of the past and current RVFV epidemiology. RVFV has spread from its original locus in Kenya throughout Africa and into the Arabian Peninsula. Throughout the study period seroprevalence increased in both humans and animals, suggesting potentially increased RVFV exposure. In 24 countries, animals or humans tested positive for RVFV antibodies even though outbreaks had never been reported there, suggesting RVFV transmission may well go unnoticed. Among ruminants, sheep were the most likely to be exposed during RVF outbreaks, but not during periods of cryptic spread. We discuss critical data gaps and highlight the need for detailed study descriptions, and long-term studies using a one health approach to further convert the patchwork of data to the tale of RFV epidemiology.
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Leveraging natural history biorepositories as a global, decentralized, pathogen surveillance network. PLoS Pathog 2021; 17:e1009583. [PMID: 34081744 PMCID: PMC8174688 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic reveals a major gap in global biosecurity infrastructure: a lack of publicly available biological samples representative across space, time, and taxonomic diversity. The shortfall, in this case for vertebrates, prevents accurate and rapid identification and monitoring of emerging pathogens and their reservoir host(s) and precludes extended investigation of ecological, evolutionary, and environmental associations that lead to human infection or spillover. Natural history museum biorepositories form the backbone of a critically needed, decentralized, global network for zoonotic pathogen surveillance, yet this infrastructure remains marginally developed, underutilized, underfunded, and disconnected from public health initiatives. Proactive detection and mitigation for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) requires expanded biodiversity infrastructure and training (particularly in biodiverse and lower income countries) and new communication pipelines that connect biorepositories and biomedical communities. To this end, we highlight a novel adaptation of Project ECHO’s virtual community of practice model: Museums and Emerging Pathogens in the Americas (MEPA). MEPA is a virtual network aimed at fostering communication, coordination, and collaborative problem-solving among pathogen researchers, public health officials, and biorepositories in the Americas. MEPA now acts as a model of effective international, interdisciplinary collaboration that can and should be replicated in other biodiversity hotspots. We encourage deposition of wildlife specimens and associated data with public biorepositories, regardless of original collection purpose, and urge biorepositories to embrace new specimen sources, types, and uses to maximize strategic growth and utility for EID research. Taxonomically, geographically, and temporally deep biorepository archives serve as the foundation of a proactive and increasingly predictive approach to zoonotic spillover, risk assessment, and threat mitigation.
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Rift Valley fever virus detection in susceptible hosts with special emphasis in insects. Sci Rep 2021; 11:9822. [PMID: 33972596 PMCID: PMC8110843 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-89226-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2020] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV, Phenuiviridae) is an emerging arbovirus that can cause potentially fatal disease in many host species including ruminants and humans. Thus, tools to detect this pathogen within tissue samples from routine diagnostic investigations or for research purposes are of major interest. This study compares the immunohistological usefulness of several mono- and polyclonal antibodies against RVFV epitopes in tissue samples derived from natural hosts of epidemiologic importance (sheep), potentially virus transmitting insect species (Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes aegypti) as well as scientific infection models (mouse, Drosophila melanogaster, C6/36 cell pellet). While the nucleoprotein was the epitope most prominently detected in mammal and mosquito tissue samples, fruit fly tissues showed expression of glycoproteins only. Antibodies against non-structural proteins exhibited single cell reactions in salivary glands of mosquitoes and the C6/36 cell pellet. However, as single antibodies exhibited a cross reactivity of varying degree in non-infected specimens, a careful interpretation of positive reactions and consideration of adequate controls remains of critical importance. The results suggest that primary antibodies directed against viral nucleoproteins and glycoproteins can facilitate RVFV detection in mammals and insects, respectively, and therefore will allow RVFV detection for diagnostic and research purposes.
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Filippitzi ME, Saegerman C. Quantitative Assessment of the Entry through Mechanical Transport in Aircraft of Rift Valley Fever Virus-Infected Mosquitoes into Previously Unaffected Areas. Pathogens 2021; 10:pathogens10050541. [PMID: 33946215 PMCID: PMC8145873 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens10050541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Revised: 04/14/2021] [Accepted: 04/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
(1): Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease of significant international health concern and considered as an emerging risk to Europe, where no RVF outbreaks in humans or animals have been reported so far. (2): Using a stochastic approach, we estimated the risk of RVF virus (RVFV) introduction during the period of May to October (the period when mosquito populations, including RVFV potential vectors, are present in European countries), into previously unaffected areas (e.g., United Kingdom, UK) via virus-carrying vectors traveling in commercial aircraft from RVF-affected countries (e.g., East Africa); (3): On average N = 68 (95% CI: 0-337), RVF-virus-infected mosquitoes are estimated to be mechanically transported by planes (with N = 0 as most likely), in direct flights from RVF-affected East African countries to the UK, between May and October. This estimate is considered as low but not negligible. The model developed should be easily scaled up to other European countries by amending appropriately country-specific variables (e.g., number of flights between countries) in order to map the areas/airports of higher risk and inform risk management per country accordingly and to adopt risk-mitigation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria-Eleni Filippitzi
- Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
- Correspondence:
| | - Claude Saegerman
- Research Unit of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Sciences (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals and Health (FARAH) Center, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, 4000 Liège, Belgium;
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Chapman NS, Zhao H, Kose N, Westover JB, Kalveram B, Bombardi R, Rodriguez J, Sutton R, Genualdi J, LaBeaud AD, Mutuku FM, Pittman PR, Freiberg AN, Gowen BB, Fremont DH, Crowe JE. Potent neutralization of Rift Valley fever virus by human monoclonal antibodies through fusion inhibition. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2025642118. [PMID: 33782133 PMCID: PMC8040655 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2025642118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), an emerging arboviral and zoonotic bunyavirus, causes severe disease in livestock and humans. Here, we report the isolation of a panel of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from the B cells of immune individuals following natural infection in Kenya or immunization with MP-12 vaccine. The B cell responses of individuals who were vaccinated or naturally infected recognized similar epitopes on both Gc and Gn proteins. The Gn-specific mAbs and two mAbs that do not recognize either monomeric Gc or Gn alone but recognized the hetero-oligomer glycoprotein complex (Gc+Gn) when Gc and Gn were coexpressed exhibited potent neutralizing activities in vitro, while Gc-specific mAbs exhibited relatively lower neutralizing capacity. The two Gc+Gn-specific mAbs and the Gn domain A-specific mAbs inhibited RVFV fusion to cells, suggesting that mAbs can inhibit the exposure of the fusion loop in Gc, a class II fusion protein, and thus prevent fusion by an indirect mechanism without direct fusion loop contact. Competition-binding analysis with coexpressed Gc/Gn and mutagenesis library screening indicated that these mAbs recognize four major antigenic sites, with two sites of vulnerability for neutralization on Gn. In experimental models of infection in mice, representative mAbs recognizing three of the antigenic sites reduced morbidity and mortality when used at a low dose in both prophylactic and therapeutic settings. This study identifies multiple candidate mAbs that may be suitable for use in humans against RVFV infection and highlights fusion inhibition against bunyaviruses as a potential contributor to potent antibody-mediated neutralization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathaniel S Chapman
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
| | - Haiyan Zhao
- Department of Pathology and Immunology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63110
| | - Nurgun Kose
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
| | - Jonna B Westover
- Department of Animal, Dairy, and Veterinary Sciences, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322
| | - Birte Kalveram
- Department of Pathology, The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77555
| | - Robin Bombardi
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
| | - Jessica Rodriguez
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
| | - Rachel Sutton
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
| | - Joseph Genualdi
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
| | - A Desiree LaBeaud
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Francis M Mutuku
- Department of Environment and Health Sciences, Technical University of Mombasa, Mombasa, Kenya
| | - Phillip R Pittman
- Medical Research and Material Command, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, MD 21702
| | - Alexander N Freiberg
- Department of Pathology, The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77555
- Center for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77555
- Sealy Institute for Vaccine Sciences, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77555
| | - Brian B Gowen
- Department of Animal, Dairy, and Veterinary Sciences, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322
| | - Daved H Fremont
- Department of Pathology and Immunology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63110
| | - James E Crowe
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232;
- The Vanderbilt Vaccine Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
- Department of Pediatrics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232
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Bergren NA, Borland EM, Hartman DA, Kading RC. Laboratory demonstration of the vertical transmission of Rift Valley fever virus by Culex tarsalis mosquitoes. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009273. [PMID: 33750981 PMCID: PMC8016277 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2020] [Revised: 04/01/2021] [Accepted: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-transmitted virus with proven ability to emerge into naïve geographic areas. Limited field evidence suggests that RVFV is transmitted vertically from parent mosquito to offspring, but until now this mechanism has not been confirmed in the laboratory. Furthermore, this transmission mechanism has allowed for the prediction of RVFV epizootics based on rainfall patterns collected from satellite information. However, in spite of the relevance to the initiation of epizootic events, laboratory confirmation of vertical transmission has remained an elusive research aim for thirty-five years. Herein we present preliminary evidence of the vertical transmission of RVFV by Culex tarsalis mosquitoes after oral exposure to RVFV. Progeny from three successive gonotrophic cycles were reared to adults, with infectious RVFV confirmed in each developmental stage. Virus was detected in ovarian tissues of parental mosquitoes 7 days after imbibing an infectious bloodmeal. Infection was confirmed in progeny as early as the first gonotrophic cycle, with infection rates ranging from 2.0–10.0%. Virus titers among progeny were low, which may indicate a host mechanism suppressing replication. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) represents a significant threat in terms of its ability to emerge into naïve geographic areas. Furthermore, RVFV represents a global public health risk due to the ability of many mosquito species to transmit the virus and the ease with which the virus can be transported due to increased globalization. The vertical transmission of RVFV by mosquitoes has long been accepted by the research community due to limited field evidence. However, laboratory confirmation of vertical transmission has remained elusive for thirty-five years. We present the first laboratory evidence of vertical transmission of RVFV in the susceptible North American vector, Culex tarsalis. We present two studies that clearly show 1) the accumulation of RVFV antigen in the ovaries of infected mosquitoes and 2) the transmission of RVFV from parent to offspring immediately following an infectious blood meal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas A. Bergren
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Erin M. Borland
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Daniel A. Hartman
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Rebekah C. Kading
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
- * E-mail:
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Sero-prevalence of brucellosis, Q-fever and Rift Valley fever in humans and livestock in Somali Region, Ethiopia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0008100. [PMID: 33493173 PMCID: PMC7861547 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2020] [Revised: 02/04/2021] [Accepted: 11/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Information on zoonotic diseases in humans and livestock are limited in pastoral/agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia. A multi-stage cross sectional cluster design study was implemented with the aim to establish the seroprevalence of zoonotic diseases including brucellosis, Q-fever and Rift Valley fever (RVF) in humans and livestock in Adadle Woreda of the Somali Region, Ethiopia. Blood samples were collected from humans and livestock and tested by relevant serological tests. For brucellosis, Rose Bengal test (RBT) and indirect ELISA was used for screening and confirmatory diagnosis respectively. Indirect and competitive ELISA were also used for Q-fever and RVF respectively. The individual seropositivity of Q-fever in livestock was 9.6% (95% CI 5.9-15.1) in cattle, 55.7% (95% CI 46.0-65.0) in camels, 48.8% (95% CI 42.5-55.0) in goats, and 28.9% (95% CI 25.0-33.2) in sheep. In humans, seropositivity of Q-fever was 27.0% (95% CI 20.4-34.0), with prevalence in males of 28.9% vs 24.2% in females (OR = 1.3; 95% CI 0.6-2.5). Camel seropositivity of Q-fever was significantly associated with age (OR = 8.1; 95% CI 2.8-23.7). The individual apparent seroprevalence of RVF was 13.2% (95% CI 8.7-18.8) in humans, 17.9% (95% CI 11.0-27.8) in cattle, 42.6% (95% CI 34.8-50.7) in camels, 6.3% (95% CI 3.3-11.6) in goats and 7.4% (95% CI 4.7-11.5) in sheep. Camels had the highest seropositivity of both Q-fever and RVF. Only a weak correlation was observed between human and livestock seropositivity for both Q-fever and RVF. Only cattle and camels were seropositive for brucellosis by iELISA. The individual seroprevalence of brucellosis was 2.8(0.9-6.4) in humans, 1.5% (95% CI 0.2-5.2) in cattle and 0.6% (95% CI 0.0-3.2) in camels. This study showed the importance of zoonoses in Somali Region and is the first published study to describe RVF exposure in humans and livestock in the country. Even though human exposure to RVF virus was reported, public health sector of Somali Region has not given attention to such zoonoses. Collaboration between public and animal health sectors for further investigation on these zoonoses using the One Health concept is indispensable.
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Sero-prevalence of West Nile virus and Rift Valley fever virus infections among cattle under extensive production system in South Omo area, southern Ethiopia. Trop Anim Health Prod 2021; 53:92. [PMID: 33415465 DOI: 10.1007/s11250-020-02506-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 12/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
West Nile fever (WNF) and Rift Valley fever (RVF) are emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases of veterinary and public health importance in Africa. Despite the existence of potential vectors and a wide range of hosts, the transmission of these diseases in domestic animals has not been well documented in the South Omo area of Ethiopia. This study aimed to estimate the sero-prevalence of IgG antibodies produced against West Nile virus (WNV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) infections among cattle in the South Omo area. Between May and June 2019, blood samples were collected from 397 cattle and screened for IgG antibodies against WNV and RVFV infections using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The overall sero-prevalence of IgG antibody to WNV infection was 4.8% (95% CI: 2.67-6.88%), while it was 5.0% to RVFV infection (95% CI: 2.87-7.18). Compared to 1-3 years old cattle, those in the age group ≥ 7 years had significantly higher odds of being positive for WNV (AOR = 6.82; 95% CI: 1.72-26.99) and RVFV (AOR = 4.38; 95% CI: 1.08-17.88) infections. The occurrence of WNV and RVFV infections in cattle population in the present study area indicates the risk of transmission to humans. Strengthening the surveillance system and conducting further studies to identify active cases in domestic and wild animals as well as in humans is crucial to reduce the risk of possible outbreaks.
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Fortnam M, Atkins M, Brown K, Chaigneau T, Frouws A, Gwaro K, Huxham M, Kairo J, Kimeli A, Kirui B, Sheen K. Multiple impact pathways of the 2015-2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya. AMBIO 2021; 50:174-189. [PMID: 32152905 PMCID: PMC7708579 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2019] [Revised: 09/30/2019] [Accepted: 01/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The 2015-2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a 'non-event'. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015-2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matt Fortnam
- Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RJ UK
| | - Molly Atkins
- International Development Department, School of Government, Muirhead Tower, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
| | - Katrina Brown
- Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RJ UK
| | - Tomas Chaigneau
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall, TR10 9FE UK
| | - Ankje Frouws
- Centre for Marine Ecosystem Research, Edith Cowan University, 270 Joondalup Drive, Perth, WA 6027 Australia
| | - Kemyline Gwaro
- Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources Development, Egerton University, P.O. Box 536, Egerton, 20115 Kenya
| | - Mark Huxham
- School of Applied Sciences, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, EH11 4BN Scotland, UK
| | - James Kairo
- Department of Oceanography and Hydrography, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, P.O. Box 81651, Mombasa, 80100 Kenya
| | - Amon Kimeli
- Department of Oceanography and Hydrography, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, P.O. Box 81651, Mombasa, 80100 Kenya
- Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT) GmBH, Fahrenheitstr. 6, 28359 Bremen, Germany
| | - Bernard Kirui
- Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources Development, Egerton University, P.O. Box 536, Egerton, 20115 Kenya
| | - Katy Sheen
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall, TR10 9FE UK
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36
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Agha SB, Alvarez M, Becker M, Fèvre EM, Junglen S, Borgemeister C. Invasive Alien Plants in Africa and the Potential Emergence of Mosquito-Borne Arboviral Diseases-A Review and Research Outlook. Viruses 2020; 13:v13010032. [PMID: 33375455 PMCID: PMC7823977 DOI: 10.3390/v13010032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Revised: 12/22/2020] [Accepted: 12/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The emergence of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) as linked to land-use changes, especially the growing agricultural intensification and expansion efforts in rural parts of Africa, is of growing health concern. This places an additional burden on health systems as drugs, vaccines, and effective vector-control measures against arboviruses and their vectors remain lacking. An integrated One Health approach holds potential in the control and prevention of arboviruses. Land-use changes favour invasion by invasive alien plants (IAPs) and investigating their impact on mosquito populations may offer a new dimension to our understanding of arbovirus emergence. Of prime importance to understand is how IAPs influence mosquito life-history traits and how this may affect transmission of arboviruses to mammalian hosts, questions that we are exploring in this review. Potential effects of IAPs may be significant, including supporting the proliferation of immature and adult stages of mosquito vectors, providing additional nutrition and suitable microhabitats, and a possible interaction between ingested secondary plant metabolites and arboviruses. We conclude that aspects of vector biology are differentially affected by individual IAPs and that while some plants may have the potential to indirectly increase the risk of transmission of certain arboviruses by their direct interaction with the vectors, the reverse holds for other IAPs. In addition, we highlight priority research areas to improve our understanding of the potential health impacts of IAPs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sheila B. Agha
- Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscheralle 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany;
- International Livestock Research Institute, Old Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya;
- Correspondence: or
| | - Miguel Alvarez
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Department of Plant Nutrition, University of Bonn, Karlrobert-Kreiten-Strasse 13, 53115 Bonn, Germany; (M.A.); (M.B.)
| | - Mathias Becker
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Department of Plant Nutrition, University of Bonn, Karlrobert-Kreiten-Strasse 13, 53115 Bonn, Germany; (M.A.); (M.B.)
| | - Eric M. Fèvre
- International Livestock Research Institute, Old Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya;
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Chester High Road, Neston CH64 7TE, UK
| | - Sandra Junglen
- Institute of Virology, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Free University Berlin, Humboldt-University Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, 10117 Berlin, Germany;
| | - Christian Borgemeister
- Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscheralle 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany;
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Gibb R, Franklinos LHV, Redding DW, Jones KE. Ecosystem perspectives are needed to manage zoonotic risks in a changing climate. BMJ 2020; 371:m3389. [PMID: 33187958 PMCID: PMC7662085 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Rory Gibb
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lydia H V Franklinos
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - David W Redding
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | - Kate E Jones
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
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38
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Rostal MK, Cleaveland S, Cordel C, van Staden L, Matthews L, Anyamba A, Karesh WB, Paweska JT, Haydon DT, Ross N. Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa. Pathogens 2020; 9:E914. [PMID: 33158214 PMCID: PMC7694248 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens9110914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Revised: 10/25/2020] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
(1) Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd's risk of RVFV infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melinda K. Rostal
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10018, USA; (W.B.K.); (N.R.)
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK; (S.C.); (L.M.); (D.T.H.)
| | - Sarah Cleaveland
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK; (S.C.); (L.M.); (D.T.H.)
| | - Claudia Cordel
- ExecuVet PTY LTD., Bloemfontein 9301, Free State, South Africa; (C.C.); (L.v.S.)
| | - Lara van Staden
- ExecuVet PTY LTD., Bloemfontein 9301, Free State, South Africa; (C.C.); (L.v.S.)
| | - Louise Matthews
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK; (S.C.); (L.M.); (D.T.H.)
| | - Assaf Anyamba
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21046, USA;
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | | | - Janusz T. Paweska
- Centre for Emerging Zoonotic and Parasitic Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg 2192, South Africa;
| | - Daniel T. Haydon
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK; (S.C.); (L.M.); (D.T.H.)
| | - Noam Ross
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10018, USA; (W.B.K.); (N.R.)
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Cecilia H, Métras R, Fall AG, Lo MM, Lancelot R, Ezanno P. It's risky to wander in September: Modelling the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in a Sahelian setting. Epidemics 2020; 33:100409. [PMID: 33137548 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Estimating the epidemic potential of vector-borne diseases, along with the relative contribution of underlying mechanisms, is crucial for animal and human health worldwide. In West African Sahel, several outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) have occurred over the last decades, but uncertainty remains about the conditions necessary to trigger these outbreaks. We use the basic reproduction number (R0) as a measure of RVF epidemic potential in northern Senegal, and map its value in two distinct ecosystems, namely the Ferlo and the Senegal River delta and valley. We consider three consecutive rainy seasons (July-November 2014, 2015 and 2016) and account for several vector and animal species. We parametrize our model with estimates of Aedes vexans arabiensis, Culex poicilipes, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, cattle, sheep and goat abundances. The impact of RVF virus introduction is assessed every week over northern Senegal. We highlight September as the period of highest epidemic potential in northern Senegal, resulting from distinct dynamics in the two study areas. Spatially, in the seasonal environment of the Ferlo, we observe that high-risk locations vary between years. We show that decreased vector densities do not greatly reduce R0 and that cattle immunity has a greater impact on reducing transmission than small ruminant immunity. The host preferences of vectors and the temperature-dependent time interval between their blood meals are crucial parameters needing further biological investigations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hélène Cecilia
- INRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300, Nantes, France; UMR ASTRE, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; ASTRE, Montpellier University, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.
| | - Raphaëlle Métras
- Inserm, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), F-75012, Paris, France.
| | - Assane Gueye Fall
- Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles/Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, BP 2057, Dakar-Hann, Senegal.
| | - Modou Moustapha Lo
- Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles/Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, BP 2057, Dakar-Hann, Senegal.
| | - Renaud Lancelot
- UMR ASTRE, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; ASTRE, Montpellier University, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.
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40
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Surtees R, Stern D, Ahrens K, Kromarek N, Lander A, Kreher P, Weiss S, Hewson R, Punch EK, Barr JN, Witkowski PT, Couacy-Hymann E, Marzi A, Dorner BG, Kurth A. Development of a multiplex microsphere immunoassay for the detection of antibodies against highly pathogenic viruses in human and animal serum samples. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008699. [PMID: 33095766 PMCID: PMC7641473 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2020] [Revised: 11/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Surveillance of highly pathogenic viruses circulating in both human and animal populations is crucial to unveil endemic infections and potential zoonotic reservoirs. Monitoring the burden of disease by serological assay could be used as an early warning system for imminent outbreaks as an increased seroprevalance often precedes larger outbreaks. However, the multitude of highly pathogenic viruses necessitates the need to identify specific antibodies against several targets from both humans as well as from potential reservoir animals such as bats. In order to address this, we have developed a broadly reactive multiplex microsphere immunoassay (MMIA) for the detection of antibodies against several highly pathogenic viruses from both humans and animals. To this aim, nucleoproteins (NP) of Ebola virus (EBOV), Marburg virus (MARV) and nucleocapsid proteins (NP) of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, Rift Valley fever virus and Dobrava-Belgrade hantavirus were employed in a 5-plex assay for IgG detection. After optimisation, specific binding to each respective NP was shown by testing sera from humans and non-human primates with known infection status. The usefulness of our assay for serosurveillance was shown by determining the immune response against the NP antigens in a panel of 129 human serum samples collected in Guinea between 2011 and 2012 in comparison to a panel of 88 sera from the German blood bank. We found good agreement between our MMIA and commercial or in-house reference methods by ELISA or IIFT with statistically significant higher binding to both EBOV NP and MARV NP coupled microspheres in the Guinea panel. Finally, the MMIA was successfully adapted to detect antibodies from bats that had been inoculated with EBOV- and MARV- virus-like particles, highlighting the versatility of this technique and potentially enabling the monitoring of wildlife as well as human populations with this assay. We were thus able to develop and validate a sensitive and broadly reactive high-throughput serological assay which could be used as a screening tool to detect antibodies against several highly pathogenic viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Surtees
- Biosafety Level-4 Laboratory, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Daniel Stern
- Biological Toxins, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Katharina Ahrens
- Biosafety Level-4 Laboratory, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nicole Kromarek
- Biosafety Level-4 Laboratory, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Angelika Lander
- Biosafety Level-4 Laboratory, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Petra Kreher
- Biosafety Level-4 Laboratory, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Sabrina Weiss
- Institute of Virology, Charité -Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Germany
| | - Roger Hewson
- Virology and Pathogenesis Group, National Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, United Kingdom
| | - Emma K Punch
- School of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - John N Barr
- School of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Peter T Witkowski
- Institute of Virology, Charité -Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Germany
| | | | - Andrea Marzi
- Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Hamilton, MT, United States of America
| | - Brigitte G Dorner
- Biological Toxins, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Andreas Kurth
- Biosafety Level-4 Laboratory, Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
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41
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Hardcastle AN, Osborne JCP, Ramshaw RE, Hulland EN, Morgan JD, Miller-Petrie MK, Hon J, Earl L, Rabinowitz P, Wasserheit JN, Gilbert M, Robinson TP, Wint GRW, Shirude S, Hay SI, Pigott DM. Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 99:362-372. [PMID: 32738486 PMCID: PMC7562817 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Revised: 07/09/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target. METHODS We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the "spillover potential," a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations. RESULTS Several countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year. CONCLUSIONS The widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Austin N Hardcastle
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joshua C P Osborne
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Rebecca E Ramshaw
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Erin N Hulland
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Julia D Morgan
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Molly K Miller-Petrie
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Julia Hon
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lucas Earl
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter Rabinowitz
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Marius Gilbert
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS), Brussels, Belgium
| | - Timothy P Robinson
- Animal Production and Health Division (AGA), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy
| | - G R William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford (ERGO), c/o Department of Zoology, Oxford, UK
| | - Shreya Shirude
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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42
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Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, Rohr J, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C. eLife 2020; 9:e58511. [PMID: 32930091 PMCID: PMC7492091 DOI: 10.7554/elife.58511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta S Shocket
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | | | - Mailo G Numazu
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
| | - Hani Slamani
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jeremy M Cohen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of WisconsinMadisonUnited States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jason Rohr
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute of Global Health, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre DameSouth BendUnited States
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
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43
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Associations between monthly rainfall and mortality in cattle due to East Coast fever, anaplasmosis and babesiosis. Parasitology 2020; 147:1743-1751. [PMID: 32907657 DOI: 10.1017/s0031182020001638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Weather conditions can impact infectious disease transmission, causing mortalities in humans, wild and domestic animals. Although rainfall in dry tropical regions is highly variable over the year, rainfall is thought to play an important role in the transmission of tick-borne diseases. Whether variation in rainfall affects disease-induced mortalities, is, however, poorly understood. Here, we use long-term data on monthly rainfall and Boran cattle mortality (1998-2017) to investigate associations between within-year variation in rainfall and cattle mortalities due to East Coast fever (ECF), anaplasmosis and babesiosis in Laikipia, Kenya, using ARIMAX modelling. Results show a negative correlation between monthly rainfall and cattle mortality for ECF and anaplasmosis, with a lag effect of 2 and 6 months, respectively. There was no association between babesiosis-induced mortalities and monthly rainfall. The results of this study suggest that control of the tick-borne diseases ECF and anaplasmosis to reduce mortalities should be intensified during rainy periods after the respective estimated time lags following dry periods.
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44
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Esser HJ, Liefting Y, Ibáñez-Justicia A, van der Jeugd H, van Turnhout CAM, Stroo A, Reusken CBEM, Koopmans MPG, de Boer WF. Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands. Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:464. [PMID: 32912330 PMCID: PMC7488554 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04339-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Accepted: 09/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus. Methods Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment. Results The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country. Conclusions The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.![]()
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen Joan Esser
- Wildlife Ecology & Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands. .,Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands. .,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
| | - Yorick Liefting
- Wildlife Ecology & Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Adolfo Ibáñez-Justicia
- Centre for Monitoring of Vectors (CMV), National Reference Centre (NRC), Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Henk van der Jeugd
- Vogeltrekstation - Dutch Centre for Avian Migration and Demography (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Chris A M van Turnhout
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.,Department of Animal Ecology & Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Arjan Stroo
- Centre for Monitoring of Vectors (CMV), National Reference Centre (NRC), Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Chantal B E M Reusken
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.,Department of Viroscience, WHO CC for Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Reference and Research, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marion P G Koopmans
- Department of Viroscience, WHO CC for Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Reference and Research, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Willem Fred de Boer
- Wildlife Ecology & Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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45
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Liu B, Ma J, Jiao Z, Gao X, Xiao J, Wang H. Risk assessment for the Rift Valley fever occurrence in China: Special concern in south-west border areas. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:445-457. [PMID: 32568445 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2019] [Revised: 04/29/2020] [Accepted: 06/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease. Since its first outbreak in 1930, RVF epidemics have caused huge economic losses and public health impacts in Africa. In 2000, RVF became a disease of global concern as it spread to the Arabian Peninsula. In our study, a Geographic Information System-based risk assessment for the occurrence of Rift Valley fever in China was established by means of ecological niche modelling. Based on occurrence records (RVF records from FAO EMPRES-i, vector records from literatures and GBIF) and high-resolution environmental layers, the prediction maps of RVF occurrence probability and distribution of five potential RVF vectors in China were modelled using Maxent. An internal validation was adopted for model verification, and high AUC values were obtained (0.918 for RVF and 0.837-0.992 for vectors). By overlaying the RVF prediction map with the combined RVF vector prediction map using Fuzzy overlay tool ('AND' operator) of ArcMap 10.2, we got the first risk map of possible RVF vector transmission. This map was further overlaid with the latest livestock distribution map ('AND' operator) to generate the second risk map of possible RVF threat to domestic livestock. The south-west border provinces in China, Yunnan, Guangxi and Tibet were predicted to have a high possibility of RVF occurrence. Conditions conducive to the local amplification of RVF also exist in these areas. Temperature seasonality, mean temperature of dry season and precipitation of the driest month were considered as key environmental variables for RVF, and common environmental conditions were found conductive for vectors. It is suggested to establish proper surveillance systems in south-west border areas to minimize the possibility of RVF invasion. Our findings can serve as a valuable reference for prevention measures to be implemented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.,College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.,College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
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46
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Grossi-Soyster EN, LaBeaud AD. Rift Valley Fever: Important Considerations for Risk Mitigation and Future Outbreaks. Trop Med Infect Dis 2020; 5:tropicalmed5020089. [PMID: 32498264 PMCID: PMC7345646 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed5020089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Revised: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic phlebovirus of the Phenuiviridae family with great opportunity for emergence in previously unaffected regions, despite its current geographical limits. Outbreaks of RVFV often infect humans or domesticated animals, such as livestock, concurrently and occur sporadically, ranging from localized outbreaks in villages to multi-country events that spread rapidly. The true burden of Rift Valley fever (RVF) is not well defined due to underreporting, misdiagnosis caused by the broad spectrum of disease presentation, and minimal access for rapid and accurate laboratory confirmation. Severe symptoms may include hemorrhagic fever, loss of vision, psychological impairment or disturbances, and organ failure. Those living in endemic areas and travelers should be aware of the potential for exposure to ongoing outbreaks or interepidemic transmission, and engage in behaviors to minimize exposure risks, as vaccinations in humans are currently unavailable and animal vaccinations are not used routinely or ubiquitously. The lack of vaccines approved for use in humans is concerning, as RVFV has proven to be highly pathogenic in naïve populations, causing severe disease in a large percent of confirmed cases, which could have considerable impact on human health.
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47
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McRoberts N, Figuera SG, Olkowski S, McGuire B, Luo W, Posny D, Gottwald T. Using models to provide rapid programme support for California's efforts to suppress Huanglongbing disease of citrus. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 374:20180281. [PMID: 31104609 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
We describe a series of operational questions posed during the state-wide response in California to the arrival of the invasive citrus disease Huanglongbing. The response is coordinated by an elected committee from the citrus industry and operates in collaboration with the California Department of Food and Agriculture, which gives it regulatory authority to enforce the removal of infected trees. The paper reviews how surveillance for disease and resource allocation between detection and delimitation have been addressed, based on epidemiological principles. In addition, we describe how epidemiological analyses have been used to support rule-making to enact costly but beneficial regulations and we highlight two recurring themes in the programme support work: (i) data are often insufficient for quantitative analyses of questions and (ii) modellers and decision-makers alike may be forced to accept the need to make decisions on the basis of simple or incomplete analyses that are subject to considerable uncertainty. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neil McRoberts
- 1 Plant Pathology, University of California , Davis, CA 95616 , USA
| | | | - Sandra Olkowski
- 1 Plant Pathology, University of California , Davis, CA 95616 , USA
| | - Brianna McGuire
- 1 Plant Pathology, University of California , Davis, CA 95616 , USA
| | - Weiqi Luo
- 2 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Fort Pierce, FL 34945, USA.,3 Center for Integrated Pest Management, North Carolina State University , Raleigh, NC 27695 , USA
| | - Drew Posny
- 2 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Fort Pierce, FL 34945, USA.,3 Center for Integrated Pest Management, North Carolina State University , Raleigh, NC 27695 , USA
| | - Tim Gottwald
- 2 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Fort Pierce, FL 34945, USA
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48
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Mbotha D, Hoppenheit A, Lindahl J, Bett B, Grace D, Lutomiah J, Pieper L, Kairu-Wanyoike S, Clausen PH. Relative Distribution, Diversity, and Bloodmeal Sources of Mosquitoes and Known Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Phlebovirus in Three Differing Ecosystems in Bura, Tana River County, Kenya. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2020; 20:365-373. [PMID: 31990632 DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2019.2503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Environmental modifications disturb the equilibrium of mosquito populations, altering the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. Mosquito distribution, diversity, and bloodmeal sources were examined to compare Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk among irrigated, riverine, and pastoral ecosystems in Bura, Tana River County, Kenya, between September 2014 and June 2015. Thirty-eight households and 21 irrigation fields were selected for the study. Mosquitoes were trapped with carbon dioxide-impregnated CDC traps, one trap per household and three traps per irrigated field, and morphologically identified using taxonomic keys. Host DNA was extracted from engorged females and cytochrome b genes amplified by PCR to identify sources of bloodmeals. A total of 21,015 mosquitoes were collected; 5742 within households in the 3 ecosystems and 15,273 within irrigated fields. Mosquitoes collected within irrigated fields belonged to 8 genera and 37 species, while those from households within the irrigation scheme belonged to 6 genera and 29 species. Collections from riverine and pastoral households belonged to five and four genera, respectively. The most abundant genera in the irrigated fields were Aedes (21%) and Mansonia (22%), while Anopheles (43%) was the most abundant within households. Most mosquitoes in riverine and pastoral households belonged to Anopheles (76%) and Aedes (65%) genera, respectively. Seasonal variation driven by rainfall was evidenced by spikes in mosquito numbers within irrigated and riverine ecosystems. Host species identification revealed that goats and humans were the main sources of bloodmeal. There was an overall increase in mosquito abundance and diversity as a result of the presence of the irrigated ecosystem in this county, and an increased availability of highly RVF-susceptible hosts as a result of the establishment and concentration of residential areas, promoting potential vector-host contacts. These results highlight the impact of anthropogenic changes on mosquito ecology, potentially heightening the risk of transmission and maintenance of RVF in this region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah Mbotha
- Institute for Parasitology and Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Antje Hoppenheit
- Institute for Parasitology and Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Johanna Lindahl
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.,Food Safety and Zoonoses, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Bernard Bett
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Delia Grace
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Joel Lutomiah
- Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Laura Pieper
- Institute for Veterinary Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Peter-Henning Clausen
- Institute for Parasitology and Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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49
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Flahault A, Utzinger J, Eckerle I, Sheath DJ, de Castañeda RR, Bolon I, Bempong NE, Andayi F. Precision global health for real-time action. LANCET DIGITAL HEALTH 2020; 2:e58-e59. [PMID: 33334561 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(19)30240-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2019] [Accepted: 12/23/2019] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Antoine Flahault
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland.
| | - Jürg Utzinger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute and University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Isabella Eckerle
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Center for Emerging Viral Diseases, University Hospitals of Geneva and Faculty of Medicine, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Danny J Sheath
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Isabelle Bolon
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Nefti-Eboni Bempong
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Fred Andayi
- Division of Global Health Protection, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kenya Medical Research Institute Headquarters, Nairobi, Kenya; Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Diseases, Lady Davis Research Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
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50
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Amato L, Dente MG, Calistri P, Declich S. Integrated Early Warning Surveillance: Achilles' Heel of One Health? Microorganisms 2020; 8:E84. [PMID: 31936412 PMCID: PMC7022449 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms8010084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2019] [Revised: 12/30/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses indicate the importance of the One Health (OH) approach for early warning. At present, even when surveillance data are available, they are infrequently timeously shared between the health sectors. In the context of the MediLabSecure (MLS) Project, we investigated the collection of a set of surveillance indicators able to provide data for the implementation of integrated early warning systems in the 22 MLS countries of the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Sahel regions. We used an online questionnaire (covering vector, human, and animal sectors), focusing on seven relevant arboviruses, that was submitted to 110 officially appointed experts. Results showed that West Nile virus was perceived as the most relevant zoonotic pathogen, while Dengue virus was the most relevant non-zoonotic pathogen in the study area. Data collection of early warning indicators is in place at a different level for all the investigated pathogens and in almost all the MLS Countries. Further assessments on the reliability of the collection in place and on the feasibility of piloting an integrated early warning system for arbovirus could verify if integrated early warning really represents the Achilles' heel of OH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Amato
- National Centre for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, 00161 Rome, Italy; (L.A.); (S.D.)
- Public Health and Infectious Diseases Department, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - Maria Grazia Dente
- National Centre for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, 00161 Rome, Italy; (L.A.); (S.D.)
| | - Paolo Calistri
- National Reference Center for Veterinary Epidemiology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell’Abruzzo e del Molise ′G.Caporale′, 64100 Teramo, Italy;
| | - Silvia Declich
- National Centre for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, 00161 Rome, Italy; (L.A.); (S.D.)
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