Wood Stove Pollution in the Developed World: A Case to Raise Awareness Among Pediatricians

Use of wood for residential heating is regaining popularity in developed countries. Currently, over 11 million US homes are heated with a wood stove. Although wood stoves reduce heating costs, wood smoke may adversely impact child health through the emission of gaseous and particulate air pollutants. Our purpose is to raise awareness of this environmental health issue among pediatricians. To summarize the state of the science, we performed a narrative review of articles published in PubMed and Web of Science. We identified 36 studies in developed countries that reported associations of household wood stove use and/or community wood smoke exposure with pediatric health outcomes. Studies primarily investigated respiratory outcomes, with no evaluation of cardiometabolic or neurocognitive health. Studies found community wood smoke exposure to be consistently associated with adverse pediatric respiratory health. Household wood stove use was less consistently associated with respiratory outcomes. However, studies of household wood stoves always relied on participant self-report of wood stove use, while studies of community wood smoke generally assessed air pollution exposure directly and more precisely in larger study populations. In most studies, important potential confounders, such as markers of socioeconomic status, were unaccounted for and may have biased results. We conclude that studies with improved exposure assessment, that measure and account for confounding, and that consider non-respiratory outcomes are needed. While awaiting additional data, pediatricians can refer patients to precautionary measures recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to mitigate exposure. These include replacing old appliances with EPA-certified stoves, properly maintaining the stove, and using only dry, well-seasoned wood. In addition, several studies have shown mechanical air filters to effectively reduce wood stove pollution exposure in affected homes and communities.

Political gender inequality and infant mortality in the United States, 1990-2012

Although gender inequality has been recognized as a crucial factor influencing population health in the developing world, research has not yet thoroughly documented the role it may play in shaping U.S. infant mortality rates (IMRs). This study uses administrative data with fixed-effects and random-effects models to (1) investigate the relationship between political gender inequality in state legislatures and state infant mortality rates in the United States from 1990 to 2012, and (2) project the population level costs associated with women's underrepresentation in 2012. Results indicate that higher percentages of women in state legislatures are associated with reduced IMRs, both between states and within-states over time. According to model predictions, if women were at parity with men in state legislatures, the expected number of infant deaths in the U.S. in 2012 would have been lower by approximately 14.6% (3,478 infant deaths). These findings underscore the importance of women's political representation for population health.

An individual-level meta-analysis assessing the impact of community-level sanitation access on child stunting, anemia, and diarrhea: Evidence from DHS and MICS surveys

BACKGROUND

A lack of access to sanitation is an important risk factor child health, facilitating fecal-oral transmission of pathogens including soil-transmitted helminthes and various causes of diarrheal disease. We conducted a meta-analysis of cross-sectional surveys to determine the impact that community-level sanitation access has on child health for children with and without household sanitation access.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Using 301 two-stage demographic health surveys and multiple indicator cluster surveys conducted between 1990 and 2015 we calculated the sanitation access in the community as the proportion of households in the sampled cluster that had household access to any type of sanitation facility. We then conducted exact matching of children based on various predictors of living in a community with high access to sanitation. Using logistic regression with the matched group as a random intercept we examined the association between the child health outcomes of stunted growth, any anemia, moderate or severe anemia, and diarrhea in the previous two weeks and the exposure of living in a community with varying degrees of community-level sanitation access. For children with household-level sanitation access, living in a community with 100% sanitation access was associated with lowered odds of stunting (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.97, 95%; confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-1.00; n = 14,153 matched groups, 1,175,167 children), any anemia (AOR = 0.73; 95% CI = 0.67-0.78; n = 5,319 matched groups, 299,033 children), moderate or severe anemia (AOR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.68-0.77; n = 5,319 matched groups, 299,033 children) and diarrhea (AOR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.91-0.97); n = 16,379 matched groups, 1,603,731 children) compared to living in a community with < 30% sanitation access. For children without household-level sanitation access, living in communities with 0% sanitation access was associated with higher odds of stunting (AOR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02-1.06; n = 14,153 matched groups, 1,175,167 children), any anemia (AOR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.00-1.09; n = 5,319 matched groups, 299,033 children), moderate or severe anemia (AOR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.00-1.09; n = 5,319 matched groups, 299,033 children) but not diarrhea (AOR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.98-1.02; n = 16,379 matched groups, 1,603,731 children) compared to children without household-level sanitation access living in communities with 1-30% sanitation access.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Community-level sanitation access is associated with improved child health outcomes independent of household-level sanitation access. The proportion of children living in communities with 100% sanitation access throughout the world is appallingly low. Ensuring sanitation access to all by 2030 will greatly improve child health.

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs).

METHODS

Systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others.

RESULTS

In total, 255 reviews and meta-analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD-10 three-digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in-depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently.

CONCLUSIONS

Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

The Global Network Neonatal Cause of Death algorithm for low-resource settings

AIM

This study estimated the causes of neonatal death using an algorithm for low-resource areas, where 98% of the world's neonatal deaths occur.

METHODS

We enrolled women in India, Pakistan, Guatemala, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Zambia from 2014 to 2016 and tracked their delivery and newborn outcomes for up to 28 days. Antenatal care and delivery symptoms were collected using a structured questionnaire, clinical observation and/or a physical examination. The Global Network Cause of Death algorithm was used to assign the cause of neonatal death, analysed by country and day of death.

RESULTS

One-third (33.1%) of the 3068 neonatal deaths were due to suspected infection, 30.8% to prematurity, 21.2% to asphyxia, 9.5% to congenital anomalies and 5.4% did not have a cause of death assigned. Prematurity and asphyxia-related deaths were more common on the first day of life (46.7% and 52.9%, respectively), while most deaths due to infection occurred after the first day of life (86.9%). The distribution of causes was similar to global data reported by other major studies.

CONCLUSION

The Global Network algorithm provided a reliable cause of neonatal death in low-resource settings and can be used to inform public health strategies to reduce mortality.

The global diabetes epidemic: what does it mean for infectious diseases in tropical countries?

Tropical countries are experiencing a substantial rise in type 2 diabetes, which is often undiagnosed or poorly controlled. Since diabetes is a risk factor for many infectious diseases, this increase probably adds to the large infectious disease burden in tropical countries. We reviewed the literature to investigate the interface between diabetes and infections in tropical countries, including the WHO-defined neglected tropical diseases. Although solid data are sparse, patients with diabetes living in tropical countries most likely face increased risks of common and health-care-associated infections, as well as infected foot ulcers, which often lead to amputation. There is strong evidence that diabetes increases the severity of some endemic infections such as tuberculosis, melioidosis, and dengue virus infection. Some HIV and antiparasitic drugs might induce diabetes, whereas helminth infections appear to afford some protection against future diabetes. But there are no or very scarce data for most tropical infections and for possible biological mechanisms underlying associations with diabetes. The rise in diabetes and other non-communicable diseases puts a heavy toll on health systems in tropical countries. On the other hand, complications common to both diabetes and some tropical infections might provide an opportunity for shared services-for example, for eye health (trachoma and onchocerciasis), ulcer care (leprosy), or renal support (schistosomiasis). More research about the interaction of diabetes and infections in tropical countries is needed, and the infectious disease burden in these countries is another reason to step up global efforts to improve prevention and care for diabetes.

The roles of UVB and vitamin D in reducing risk of cancer incidence and mortality: A review of the epidemiology, clinical trials, and mechanisms

Global cancer incidence and mortality rates are high and increasing. Thus, it is imperative to find novel solutions to preventing cancer incidence and treating it at an affordable yet efficacious manner. The solar UVB-vitamin D-cancer hypothesis was first proposed in 1980 based on a geographical ecological study. Since then, numerous ecological and observational studies as well as studies of mechanisms have provided support for the hypothesis. However, observational studies have not provided consistent support, in part due to using a single blood draw from any season to use for serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration in prospective studies with long follow-up times. Case-controls studies, in which blood is drawn near time of diagnosis, and prospective studies in which blood is drawn in the sunnier half of the year, are more likely to find significant inverse relations between 25(OH)D and cancer incidence. Three vitamin D plus calcium clinical trials have found significant reduction in all-cancer incidence. This paper reviews the evidence for vitamin D in reducing incidence of and increasing survival from breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, pancreatic, and prostate cancer. The epidemiological evidence provides strong support for all of these types of cancer except for non-aggressive prostate cancer. Studies of the cellular mechanisms of vitamin D action in different cancer cell types, strongly indicate that vitamin D can exert protective and anti-tumorigenic activities that would retard cellular transformation, hyperplasia and cancer progression. Based on the scientific evidence reviewed in this paper, individuals and health providers can consider increasing 25(OH)D concentrations through sensible sun exposure and/or vitamin D supplementation to reduce risk of and, in conjunction with standard care, treat cancer. Public health acceptance of vitamin D for cancer prevention and treatment requires stronger support from vitamin D clinical trials.

Association between enteric protozoan parasites and gastrointestinal illness among HIV- and tuberculosis-infected individuals in the Chowke district, southern Mozambique

Human immune deficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) infections remain major public health issues globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Impairment of both cell-mediated and humoral immunity by HIV and/or TB infections may limit the host's defences against other pathogens, including the diarrheagenic protozoan Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia intestinalis, and Entamoeba histolytica. During September-December 2015 a cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the prevalence and molecular diversity of these enteric parasites among HIV- and/or TB-infected patients at a medical reference centre in Chowke district, southern Mozambique. A total of 99 stool specimens were initially screened by direct microscopy and further confirmed and characterised by molecular methods. DNA sequence analyses of the genes encoding the small subunit ribosomal RNA and the 60-kDa glycoprotein were used for the typing and sub-typing of Cryptosporidium isolates, respectively. G. intestinalis-positive isolates by real-time PCR were subsequently typed at the glutamate dehydrogenase locus. Differential diagnosis of E. histolytica/dispar was achieved by real-time PCR. G. intestinalis (8.1%) was the enteric protozoan more frequently detected, followed by Cryptosporidium spp. (7.1%), and Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (6.1%). Two HIV-infected (but not TB-infected) patients harbour G. intestinalis and Cryptosporidium spp. co-infections. Two (29%) G. intestinalis isolates were successfully characterised, revealing the presence of known AII and novel BIV genotypes. Four (57%) Cryptosporidium isolates were unmistakeable assigned to C. hominis, identifying two (IbA10G2 and IdA22) sub-types. Cryptosporidium infections were not associated to diarrhoea in HIV-positive patients, probably because improved immune function in the affected individuals due to antiretroviral therapy. G. intestinalis was considered a non-opportunistic pathogen, whereas the presence of E. histolytica could not be confirmed by molecular methods. Based on their common presence in the studied clinical population, we recommend the effective diagnosis and treatment of these enteropathogens for improving the management of HIV and TB patients.

Expressing air pollution-induced health-related externalities in physical terms with the help of DALYs

The unintended impacts of industrial activity on human health and the environment have regularly been assessed and monetised (referred to as "external costs"). External costs are, however, a rather abstract aggregate so that decision makers cannot easily relate them to tangible impacts. At the same time, physical health impact indicators have different units that cannot readily be compared and communicated in a joint way. To support better informed decisions at policy or company level, we propose and demonstrate a way to facilitate communication on non-monetized, that is, physical health indicators quantified in studies. The concept Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is chosen as metric due to its widespread use. We establish a comprehensive and consistent set of six health endpoints caused by particles and ozone, and derive related up-to-date DALYs. Further we apply the DALY values to a French smart grid demonstration project. Owing to its size, the gains in terms of reduced DALYs are however small. In contrast to external cost assessments, in the frame of which morbidity endpoints usually contribute to around 10-15%, they are found to be insubstantial in the overall DALY score (i.e. below 1%). This is because DALYs only consider time losses weighted by severity while external costs also factor in further welfare effects, i.e. combining resource, disutility and opportunity costs of illness. As a result, methodological limitations, mainly existing for the morbidity-related DALY values, appear to be less of concern. Overall, using the DALYs with and without morbidity impacts is justifiable. Either choice in the communication of health-related physical externalities induces the need to explain the limitations in terms of the treatment of morbidity endpoints (notably their definition and the disability weights used) or their complete disregard.

Impact of cuff positioning on blood pressure measurement accuracy: may a specially designed cuff make a difference?

During blood pressure (BP) measurement, the recommended positioning of the cuff bladder center is directly above the brachial artery. We investigated the relevance of incorrect cuff positioning during (1) auscultatory measurement with an appropriate or improperly small cuff and (2) oscillometric measurement with a wide-range cuff designed to guarantee accurate measurements regardless of position. In subjects with wide BP and arm circumference ranges, (1) auscultatory BP was repeatedly measured with a properly positioned cuff (reference) and, simultaneously, with an identical cuff placed on the other arm in either a correct or an incorrect position (test). The measurements were performed with a properly sized (N=57) or an improperly small cuff (N=33). (2) Auscultatory measurements obtained with a properly positioned and sized cuff were compared with oscillometric measurements obtained with a specially designed wide-range cuff (Omron IntelliWrap) placed on the contralateral arm either in a correct or an incorrect position. Auscultatory BP measures were unaffected by incorrect positioning of a properly sized cuff, whereas with undercuffing, BP was overestimated with the cuff displaced by 90° laterally (systolic/diastolic BP differences: 4.9±4.6/4.0±4.6 mm Hg, P<0.01) or by 180° (3.9±5.4/4.2±5.1 mm Hg, P<0.01) in relation to the correct position. Incorrect placement of the oscillometric cuff had no significant effect on the accuracy of the measurements (difference with correct position <1.5 mm Hg). Incorrect cuff positioning introduces a systematic overestimation of auscultatory BP when the cuff is too small in relation to arm circumference but not when it is correctly sized. No systematic error was observed with oscillometric measurements obtained with a specially designed wide-range cuff.

Reference values and factors associated with musculoskeletal symptoms in healthy adolescents and adults

BACKGROUND

Insufficient attention has been given to individuals who report musculoskeletal symptoms yet experience minimal disability.

OBJECTIVES

To examine musculoskeletal symptoms among healthy individuals, and compare demographic, psychological and physical factors between individuals with and without symptoms.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

METHOD

Data were from the 1000 Norms Project which recruited 1000 individuals aged 3-101 years. Participants were healthy by self-report and had no major physical disability. Musculoskeletal symptoms (ache/pain/discomfort, including single-site and multi-site symptoms) were assessed in adolescents (11-17y) and adults (18-101y) using the Extended Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ-E). To compare individuals with single-site, multi-site and no symptoms, body mass index, grip strength, 6-min walk, 30-s chair stand and timed up-and-down stairs (all participants), and mental health, sleep difficulties, self-efficacy and physical activity (adults), were collected.

RESULTS

/findings: Socio-demographic characteristics were similar to the Australian population. Twelve-month period prevalence of all symptoms was 69-82%; point prevalence was 23-39%. Adults with single-site symptoms were more likely to be overweight/obese and had lower sit-to-stand and stair-climbing performance (p < 0.05). Adults with multi-site symptoms were more likely to be female and overweight/obese, had lower mental health, greater sleep difficulties and lower grip strength, 6-min walk and sit-to-stand performance (p < 0.05). Differences were only observed among 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-101 year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

Normative reference data for the NMQ-E have been generated. Musculoskeletal symptoms are common among healthy individuals. In older adults, musculoskeletal symptoms are linked with overweight/obesity, lower mental health, sleep difficulties and lower physical performance, emphasising the importance of multi-dimensional assessments in musculoskeletal disorders.

Salidroside inhibits high-glucose induced proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells via inhibiting mitochondrial fission and oxidative stress

The mitochondria are highly dynamic organelles, carefully maintaining network homeostasis by regulating mitochondrial fusion and fission. Mitochondrial dynamics are involved in the regulation of a variety of pathophysiological processes, including cell proliferation. Oxidative stress serves an important role in the remodeling of arterial vascular tissue in diabetic patients by affecting the proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs). Salidroside is the primary active component of Rhodiola rosea and has been demonstrated to be an antioxidant with cardio- and vascular-protective effects, in addition to improving glucose metabolism. Therefore, the present study aimed to examine the impact of Salidroside on VSMC proliferation, reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation and mitochondrial dynamics under high glucose conditions and the potential mechanisms involved. The current study used Salidroside and a mitochondrial division inhibitor, specifically of Drp1 (Mdivi-1) to treat VSMCs under high glucose conditions for 24 h and assessed VSMCs proliferation, the state of mitochondrial fission and fusion and the expression level of proteins related to mitochondrial dynamics including dynamin-related protein (Drp1) and mitofusin 2 (Mfn2), ROS level and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase activity. The results of the present study indicate that Salidroside and Mdivi-1 inhibit VSMC proliferation, Drp1 expression and oxidative stress and upregulate Mfn2 expression (all P<0.05). The inhibitive effect on VSMC proliferation may be partly reversed by exogenous ROS. In addition, the inhibitive effect on VSMCs proliferation and oxidative stress may also be in part reversed by Mfn2-siRNA. Collectively, these data suggest that Salidroside inhibits VSMCs proliferation induced by high-glucose and may perform its therapeutic effect via maintaining mitochondrial dynamic homeostasis and regulating oxidative stress level, with Mfn2 as a therapeutic target.

Long-term cost of spouses' informal support for dependent midlife stroke survivors

OBJECTIVES

Stroke is a major global disease that requires extensive care and support from society and relatives. The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the long-term informal support and to estimate the annual cost of informal support provided by spouses to their stroke surviving partner.

METHOD

Data were based on the 7-year follow-up of the Sahlgrenska Academy Study on Ischemic Stroke. One-third of the spouses stated that they provided support to their stroke surviving partner. The magnitude of the support was assessed with a study-specific time-diary and was estimated for independent and dependent stroke survivors based on the scores of the modified Rankin Scale. To deal with skewed data, a two-part econometric model was used to estimate the annual cost of informal support.

RESULT

Cohabitant dyads of 221 stroke survivors aged <70 at stroke onset were included in the study. Spouses of independent stroke survivors (n = 188) provided on average 0.15 hr/day of practical support and 0.48 hr/day of being available. Corresponding figures for spouses of dependent stroke survivors (n = 33) were 5.00 regarding practical support and 9.51 regarding being available. The mean annual cost of informal support provided for independent stroke survivors was estimated at €991 and €25,127 for dependent stroke survivor.

CONCLUSION

The opportunity cost of informal support provided to dependent midlife stroke survivors is of a major magnitude many years after stroke onset and should be considered in economic evaluations of health care.

The causal role of smoking on the risk of hip or knee replacement due to primary osteoarthritis: a Mendelian randomisation analysis of the HUNT study

OBJECTIVE

Smoking has been associated with a reduced risk of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) and subsequent joint replacement. The aim of the present study was to assess whether the observed association is likely to be causal.

METHOD

55,745 participants of a population-based cohort were genotyped for the rs1051730 C > T single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), a proxy for smoking quantity among smokers. A Mendelian randomization analysis was performed using rs1051730 as an instrument to evaluate the causal role of smoking on the risk of hip or knee replacement (combined as total joint replacement (TJR)). Association between rs1051730 T alleles and TJR was estimated by hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All analyses were adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

Smoking quantity (no. of cigarettes) was inversely associated with TJR (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-0.98). In the Mendelian randomization analysis, rs1051730 T alleles were associated with reduced risk of TJR among current smokers (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.98, per T allele), however we found no evidence of association among former (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.88-1.07) and never smokers (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.89-1.06). Neither adjusting for body mass index (BMI), cardiovascular disease (CVD) nor accounting for the competing risk of mortality substantially changed the results.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that smoking may be causally associated with the reduced risk of TJR. Our findings add support to the inverse association found in previous observational studies. More research is needed to further elucidate the underlying mechanisms of this causal association.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study

Importance

Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective

To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review

Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

Findings

Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

Conclusions and Relevance

Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

Ethnicity, lipids and cardiovascular disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease differs among ethnic groups and along geographic boundaries. At present, most of the projected increase in mortality from cardiovascular disease occurs in sub-Saharan African, Chinese and Southeast Asian populations. Ethnic disparities in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease coincide with quantitative and qualitative differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease. High plasma cholesterol is one of the most important preventable causes of ischemic heart disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

The current review summarizes recent evidence on ethnic differences in ischemic heart disease and its correlates with genetic and acquired differences in plasma lipid and lipoprotein levels. The nature of ethnic differences in plasma lipid levels, apolipoprotein L1 en lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is outlined, and the effects of lipid-lowering therapy and future efforts and challenges regarding implementation are discussed.

SUMMARY

Ethnic differences in HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride levels and Lp(a) may impact ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease and result in higher residual risk during lipid-lowering therapy. Further efforts should be made to stimulate the use of statins in both high-income and low-income countries and study their effects in individuals with different ethnic backgrounds.

Pregnancy Outcomes Following In Utero Exposure to Lamotrigine: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Lamotrigine is used in pregnancy to control epilepsy and mood disorders. The reproductive safety of this widely used drug remains undefined and may represent a significant public health concern.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of existing knowledge related to malformation rates and maternal-neonatal outcomes after in utero exposure to monotherapy with lamotrigine.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified through systematic searches conducted in MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), CENTRAL (Ovid), and Web of Science (Thomson Reuters) from database inception to July 2016; no language or date restrictions were applied. All publications of clinically relevant outcomes of pregnancies following in utero exposure to lamotrigine were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies describing immediate pregnancy outcomes and rates of congenital malformations fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Compared with disease-matched controls (n = 1412, total number of patients) and healthy controls (n = 774,571, total number of patients), in utero exposure to lamotrigine monotherapy was found to be associated with significantly decreased rates of inborn defects (odds ratio [OR] 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-2.16 and OR 1.25; 95% CI 0.89-1.74, respectively). Rates of miscarriages, stillbirths, preterm deliveries, and small for gestational age (SGA) neonates were not found to have been increased after in-utero exposure to LTG compared to the general population. Similarly, in utero exposure to lamotrigine monotherapy was not found to be associated with increased rates of inborn defects compared with in utero exposure to carbamazepine, and lamotrigine was found to be statistically significantly less teratogenic than valproic acid (n = 12,958 and 10,748; OR 0.84; 95% CI 0.68-1.03 and OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.26-0.39, respectively).

CONCLUSION

No association was found between prenatal lamotrigine monotherapy and increased rates of birth defects and other explored variables related to adverse pregnancy outcomes.

The budget impact of using enteric-coated aspirin 325 mg + immediate-release omeprazole 40 mg to prevent recurrent cardiovascular events

OBJECTIVE

Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid; ASA) is commonly used for secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) events, but may be associated with gastrointestinal (GI) adverse events, which can reduce adherence. Use of ASA co-therapy with proton pump inhibitors in patients at risk may be suboptimal. PA32540 (Yosprala™) is a coordinated-delivery tablet combining EC-ASA 325 mg and immediate-release omeprazole 40 mg. The objective of this flexible budget impact model was to project the financial consequences of introducing PA32540 325 mg/40 mg to prevent recurrent CV events, while reducing ASA-associated GI events in US adults.

METHODS

A Markov Model was employed to estimate health state transitions associated with ASA 75-325 mg, ASA 75-325 mg + generic delayed-release omeprazole 40 mg, PA32540, or clopidogrel 75 mg to prevent recurrent CV events. Health states included ulcers, GI bleeding, CV events, and death. Model inputs included demographics, treatment dosages, treatment costs, adverse GI and CV events, and premature death. Data from peer-reviewed literature and censuses enabled appropriate allocation of CV and GI disease prevalence and mortality. The PA32540 non-adherence rate was conservatively set at 20%. PA32540 market share was set to 50%.

RESULTS

The model projected annual savings of $81.0 million to $190.9 million within 1-5 years after PA32540 introduction to the plan, which included 134,558 members at risk for recurrent CV events. These values translate into savings of $602 (year 5) to $1,419 (year 1) per patient per year, and $81 (year 5) to $191 (year 1) per member per year. These values were robust to variations in parameters under a deterministic sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

PA32540 use to prevent recurrent CV events was associated with cost reductions in each year examined with the model. From a health plan perspective, PA32540 is likely to have a net overall effect, resulting in significant cost savings.

Abortion Law and Policy Around the World: In Search of Decriminalization

The aim of this paper is to provide a panoramic view of laws and policies on abortion around the world, giving a range of country-based examples. It shows that the plethora of convoluted laws and restrictions surrounding abortion do not make any legal or public health sense. What makes abortion safe is simple and irrefutable-when it is available on the woman's request and is universally affordable and accessible. From this perspective, few existing laws are fit for purpose. However, the road to law reform is long and difficult. In order to achieve the right to safe abortion, advocates will need to study the political, health system, legal, juridical, and socio-cultural realities surrounding existing law and policy in their countries, and decide what kind of law they want (if any). The biggest challenge is to determine what is possible to achieve, build a critical mass of support, and work together with legal experts, parliamentarians, health professionals, and women themselves to change the law-so that everyone with an unwanted pregnancy who seeks an abortion can have it, as early as possible and as late as necessary.

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide.

Methods

We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

Findings

Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015.

Interpretation

At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality in the First 3 Months on Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Positive Adults in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Meta-analysis

Previous meta-analyses reported mortality estimates of 12-month post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation; however, 40%-60% of deaths occur in the first 3 months on ART, a more sensitive measure of averted deaths through early ART initiation. To determine whether early mortality is dropping as treatment thresholds have increased, we reviewed studies of 3 months on ART initiation in low- to middle-income countries. Studies of 3-month mortality from January 2003 to April 2016 were searched in 5 databases. Articles were included that reported 3-month mortality from a low- to middle-income country; nontrial setting and participants were ≥15. We assessed overall mortality and stratified by year using random effects models. Among 58 included studies, although not significant, pooled estimates show a decline in mortality when comparing studies whose enrollment of patients ended before 2010 (7.0%; 95% CI: 6.0 to 8.0) with the studies during or after 2010 (4.0%; 95% CI: 3.0 to 5.0). To continue to reduce early HIV-related mortality at the population level, intensified efforts to increase demand for ART through active testing and facilitated referral should be a priority. Continued financial investments by multinational partners and the implementation of creative interventions to mitigate multidimensional complex barriers of accessing care and treatment for HIV are needed.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview

Nigeria’s under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1–59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1–59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1–59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

HIV stigma trends in the general population during antiretroviral treatment expansion: analysis of 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

HIV-related stigma is associated with increased risk-taking behavior, reduced uptake of HIV testing, and decreased adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Although ART scale-up may reduce HIV-related stigma, the extent to which levels of stigma in the general population have changed during the era of ART scale-up in sub-Saharan Africa is unknown.

METHODS

Social distance and anticipated stigma were operationalized using standard HIV-related stigma questions contained in the Demographic and Health Surveys and AIDS Indicator Surveys of 31 African countries between 2003 and 2013. We fitted multivariable linear regression models with cluster-correlated robust standard errors and country fixed effects, specifying social distance or anticipated stigma as the dependent variable and year as the primary explanatory variable of interest.

RESULTS

We estimated a statistically significant negative association between year and desires for social distance (b = -0.020; P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval: -0.026 to -0.015) but a statistically significant positive association between year and anticipated stigma (b = 0.023; P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval: 0.018 to 0.027). In analyses stratified by HIV prevalence above or below the sample median, declines in social distancing over time were more pronounced among countries with a higher HIV prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Concomitant with ART scale-up in sub-Saharan Africa, anticipated stigma in the general population increased despite a decrease in social distancing toward people living with HIV. Although ART scale-up may help reduce social distancing toward people living with HIV, particularly in high-prevalence countries, other interventions targeting symbolic or instrumental concerns about HIV may be needed.

Mortality among twins and singletons in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014: a pooled analysis of data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys in 30 countries

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa has the world's highest under-5 and neonatal mortality rates as well as the highest naturally occurring twin rates. Twin pregnancies carry high risk for children and mothers. Under-5 mortality has declined in sub-Saharan Africa over the last decades. It is unknown whether twins have shared in this reduction.

METHODS

We pooled data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys for 30 sub-Saharan Africa countries on births reported between 1995 and 2014. We used information on 1 685 110 singleton and 56 597 twin livebirths to compute trends in mortality rates for singletons and twins. We examined whether the twin-singleton rate ratio can be attributed to biological, socioeconomic, care-related factors, or birth size, and estimated the mortality burden among sub-Saharan African twins.

FINDINGS

Under-5 mortality among twins has declined from 327·7 (95% CI 312·0-343·5) per 1000 livebirths in 1995-2001 to 213·0 (196·7-229·2) in 2009-14. This decline of 35·0% was much less steep than the 50·6% reduction among singletons (from 128·6 [95% CI 126·4-130·8] per 1000 livebirths in 1995-2001 to 63·5 [61·6-65·3] in 2009-14). Twins account for an increasing share of under-5 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa: currently 10·7% of under-5 mortality and 15·1% of neonatal mortality. We estimated that about 315 000 twins (uncertainty interval 289 000-343 000) die in sub-Saharan African each year. Excess twin mortality cannot be explained by common risk factors for under-5 mortality, including birthweight. The difference with singletons was especially stark for neonatal mortality (rate ratio 5·0, 95% CI 4·5-5·6). 51·7% of women pregnant with twins reported receiving medical assistance at birth.

INTERPRETATION

The fate of twins in sub-Saharan Africa is lagging behind that of singletons. An alarming one-fifth of twins in the region dies before age 5 years, three times the mortality rate among singletons. Twins account for a substantial and growing share of under-5 and neonatal mortality, but they are largely neglected in the literature. Coordinated action is required to improve the situation of this extremely vulnerable group.

FUNDING

None.

The mental health of youth and young adults during the transition to adulthood in Egypt

BACKGROUND

There has been growing interest in the stalled transition to adulthood in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and its consequences for young people’s socioeconomic outcomes. However, little is known about how important life transitions relate to youth psychosocial well-being in the region.

OBJECTIVE

Drawing on a life course framework, we estimate the associations between making transitions in education, employment, and marriage with changes in mental health among young people in Egypt.

METHODS

We descriptively analyze mental health scores, measured via the Self-Reporting Questionnaire-20 and disaggregated by gender, for a panel of young people first surveyed in 2009 at ages 13–29 and followed up in late 2013 and early 2014. We regress change in mental health scores against indicators of making different transitions.

RESULTS

Young women experience worse mental health than young men overall. Lower school achievement was associated with poorer mental health; being out of the labor force was an additional risk factor for young men. While average mental health scores improved over time, over a quarter of the sample experienced worsening mental health, related to failure to marry and find a job among older men, and failure to finish schooling among younger women.

CONCLUSIONS

Mental health is an important but often overlooked component of youth well-being during the transition to adulthood in MENA, and potentially other low- and middle-income countries.

CONTRIBUTION

This is the first paper to empirically examine the relationship between psychosocial well-being and achieving important socioeconomic milestones among a nationally representative cohort of young people in MENA.

Knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to dietary salt among adults in the state of Victoria, Australia 2015

Background

Information on consumer’s knowledge, attitudes and behaviours (KABs) related to salt can be used to inform awareness and education campaigns and serve as a baseline measure to monitor changes in KABs over time. The aim of this study was to determine KABs related to salt intake among Victorian adults.

Methods

Cross-sectional survey conducted in Victorian adults aged 18–65 years. Participants were recruited from shopping centres located in Melbourne and Geelong and via online methods (Facebook and Consumer Research Panel) to complete an online survey assessing KABs related to dietary salt. Descriptive statistics (mean (SD) or n (%)) were used to report survey findings.

Results

A total of 2398 participants provided a valid survey (mean age 43 years (SD 13), 57% female). The majority (80%) were born in Australia and 63% were the main household grocery shopper. The majority (89%) were aware of the health risks associated with a high salt intake. Eighty three percent believed that Australians eat too much salt. Three quarters (75%) correctly identified salt from processed foods as being the main source of salt in the diet. Less than a third (29%) of participants believed their own individual salt intake exceeded dietary recommendations and only 28% could correctly identify the maximum recommended daily intake for salt. Just under half (46%) of participants were concerned about the amount of salt in food. Almost two thirds (61%) of participants believed that there should be laws which limit the amount of salt added to manufactured foods and 58% agreed that it was difficult to find lower salt options when eating out.

Conclusions

The findings of this study serve as a baseline assessment of KABs related to salt intake in Victorian adults and can be used to assess changes in salt related KABs over time. Public concern about salt is low as many people remain unaware of their own salt intake. An increased awareness of the excessive amount of salt consumed and increased availability of lower salt foods are likely to reduce population salt intake.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4451-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prevalence and incidence of hypertension: Results from a representative cohort of over 16,000 adults in three cities of South Asia

BACKGROUND

Despite high projected burden, hypertension incidence data are lacking in South Asian population. We measured hypertension prevalence and incidence in the Center for cArdio-metabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) adult cohort.

METHODS

The CARRS Study recruited representative samples of Chennai, Delhi, and Karachi in 2010/11, and socio-demographic and risk factor data were obtained using a standard common protocol. Blood pressure (BP) was measured in the sitting position using electronic sphygmomanometer both at baseline and two year follow-up. Hypertension and control were defined by JNC 7 criteria.

RESULTS

In total, 16,287 participants were recruited (response rate=94.3%) and two year follow-up was completed in 12,504 (follow-up rate=79.2%). Hypertension was present in 30.1% men (95% CI: 28.7-31.5) and 26.8% women (25.7-27.9) at baseline. BP was controlled in 1 in 7 subjects with hypertension. At two years, among non-hypertensive adults, average systolic BP increased 2.6mm Hg (95% CI: 2.1-3.1), diastolic BP 0.7mm Hg (95% CI: 0.4-1.0), and 1 in 6 developed hypertension (82.6 per 1000 person years, 95% CI: 80.8-84.4). Risk for developing hypertension was associated with age, low socio-economic status, current alcohol use, overweight, pre-hypertension, and dysglycemia. Risk of incident hypertension was highest (RR=2.95, 95% CI: 2.53-3.45) in individuals with pre-hypertension compared to normal BP. Collectively, 4 modifiable risk factors (pre-hypertension, overweight, dysglycemia, and alcohol use) accounted for 78% of the population attributable risk of incident hypertension.

CONCLUSION

High prevalence and poor control of hypertension, along with high incidence, in South Asian adult population call for urgent preventive measures.

Diagnosis, Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, Prevention, and Control of Hypertension in Cameroon: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Clinic-Based and Community-Based Studies

Background

Hypertension holds a unique place in population health and health care because it is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease and the most common noncommunicable condition seen in primary care worldwide. Without effective prevention and control, raised blood pressure significantly increases the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, dementia, renal failure, and blindness. There is an urgent need for stakeholders—including individuals and families—across the health system, researchers, and decision makers to work collaboratively for improving prevention, screening and detection, diagnosis and evaluation, awareness, treatment and medication adherence, management, and control for people with or at high risk for hypertension. Meeting this need will help reduce the burden of hypertension-related disease, prevent complications, and reduce the need for hospitalization, costly interventions, and premature deaths.

Objective

This review aims to synthesize evidence on the epidemiological landscape and control of hypertension in Cameroon, and to identify elements that could potentially inform interventions to combat hypertension in this setting and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

The full search process will involve several steps, including selecting relevant databases, keywords, and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH); searching for relevant studies from the selected databases; searching OpenGrey and the Grey Literature Report for gray literature; hand searching in Google Scholar; and soliciting missed publications (if any) from relevant authors. We will select qualitative, quantitative, or mixed-methods studies with data on the epidemiology and control of hypertension in Cameroon. We will include published literature in French or English from electronic databases up to December 31, 2016, and involving adults aged 18 years or older. Both facility and population-based studies on hypertension will be included. Two reviewers of the team will independently search, screen, extract data, and assess the quality of selected studies using suitable tools. Selected studies will be analyzed by narrative synthesis, meta-analysis, or both, depending on the nature of the data retrieved in line with the review objectives.

Results

This review is part of an ongoing research program on disease prevention and control in the context of the dual burden of communicable and noncommunicable diseases in Africa. The first results are expected in 2017.

Conclusions

This review will provide a comprehensive assessment of the burden of hypertension and control measures that have been designed and implemented in Cameroon. Findings will form the knowledge base relevant to stakeholders across the health system and researchers who are involved in hypertension prevention and control in the community and clinic settings in Cameroon, as a yardstick for similar African countries.

Trial Registration

PROSPERO registration number: CRD42017054950; http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ display_record.asp?ID=CRD42017054950 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6qYSjt9Jc)

Chronic kidney disease in low-income to middle-income countries: the case for increased screening

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is fast becoming a major public health issue, disproportionately burdening low-income to middle-income countries, where detection rates remain low. We critically assessed the extant literature on CKD screening in low-income to middle-income countries. We performed a PubMed search, up to September 2016, for studies on CKD screening in low-income to middle-income countries. Relevant studies were summarised through key questions derived from the Wilson and Jungner criteria. We found that low-income to middle-income countries are ill-equipped to deal with the devastating consequences of CKD, particularly the late stages of the disease. There are acceptable and relatively simple tools that can aid CKD screening in these countries. Screening should primarily include high-risk individuals (those with hypertension, type 2 diabetes, HIV infection or aged >60 years), but also extend to those with suboptimal levels of risk (eg, prediabetes and prehypertension). Since screening for hypertension, type 2 diabetes and HIV infection is already included in clinical practice guidelines in resource-poor settings, it is conceivable to couple this with simple CKD screening tests. Effective implementation of CKD screening remains a challenge, and the cost-effectiveness of such an undertaking largely remains to be explored. In conclusion, for many compelling reasons, screening for CKD should be a policy priority in low-income to middle-income countries, as early intervention is likely to be effective in reducing the high burden of morbidity and mortality from CKD. This will help health systems to achieve cost-effective prevention.

Tuberculosis in China: A longitudinal predictive model of the general population and recommendations for achieving WHO goals

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge. China accounts for more than 10% of the global TB burden, and effective modelling of TB trends remains limited.

METHODS

We used data drawn primarily from two Chinese nation-wide cross-sectional epidemiological surveys combined with data from China's National Disease Reporting Network to construct an eight-state Markov model that simulates TB prevalence. By adjusting the relevant parameters, we evaluated which characteristics have the greatest bearing upon prevalence and efficacy of the response measures.

RESULTS

If current trends continue, the prevalence of TB in China will enter an 8-year period of decline from approximately 390 to 200 cases per 100 000 population and stabilize at 163 cases per 100 000 population, which is a figure well above the World Health Organization (WHO) goal of eliminating TB by 2050. We find that the proportion of notified cases in the population, the rate of progression from latent to active and the overall treatment success rate are the chief factors affecting disease progression.

CONCLUSION

We suggest a 90-90-90 strategy, wherein the proportion of notified cases in the population reaches 90%, the risk of progression from latent to active is decreased by 90% compared with the current level and the overall treatment success rate is increased to 90%. This strategy could reduce TB prevalence to less than 10 cases per 100 000 population within 5 years and to 1.77 cases per 100 000 population within 50 years.

Disparities in health in the United States: An overview of the social determinants of health for otolaryngologists

Objectives

Social determinants of health include social and demographic factors such as poverty, education status, race and ethnicity, gender, insurance status, and other factors that influence (1) development of illness, (2) ability to obtain and utilize healthcare, and (3) health and healthcare outcomes. In otolaryngology, as in other subspecialty surgical fields, we are constantly confronted by patients’ social and demographic circumstances including poverty, language barriers, and lack of health insurance and yet there is limited research on how these factors impact health equity in our field, or how attention to these patient characteristics may improve health equity. This review provides the reader with a framework to understand the social determinants of health including how socioeconomic status, insurance status, race, gender, and other factors impact health.

Data Sources and Review Methods

Foundational papers on the social determinants of health are reviewed, as well as otolaryngology publications focused on health and healthcare disparities.

Results

The social determinants of health have a major impact on patient health as well as healthcare utilization, but there is a relative lack of data on these factors and how they can be addressed within otolaryngology. Incorporating tools to measure social and demographic characteristics and actually report on these measures is a first simple step to increase the data on the social determinants of health as they pertain to otolaryngology.

Conclusion

More research is needed on the social determinants of health, and how they impact otolaryngic disease. Medicare's Accountable Care Organization models will increasingly change the way in which physicians are reimbursed, making the social determinants of health central not only to our moral conscience but also the bottom line.

Level of Evidence

4

Comorbidities impact on the prognosis of severe acute community-acquired pneumonia

Highlights

Abstract

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a frequent cause of admission to hospital worldwide with high mortality rates. Host comorbidities may be associated not just with a greater risk of developing the disease but also with worse outcomes. In this work, the evaluation of the impact of host comorbidities on the prognosis of severe CAP patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) was proposed. Severity indexes, some clinical and analytic parameters at admission in ICU as well as patient comorbidities were analyzed and statistically compared with mortality. In this study, although there was no clear link between comorbidities and mortality, factors such as smoking, obesity and previous renal disease impairment seem to have an impact on the prognosis of severe CAP.

Lesinurad: what the nephrologist should know

Lesinurad is an oral inhibitor of the monocarboxylic/urate transporter URAT1 encoded by the SLC22A12 gene. Market authorization was granted in February 2016 in Europe and December 2015 in the USA. As a potentially nephrotoxic uricosuric drug acting on the kidney, nephrologists should become familiar with its indications and safety profile. The approved indication is treatment of gout in combination with a xanthine oxidase (XO) inhibitor in adult patients who have not achieved target serum uric acid levels with an XO inhibitor alone. It is not indicated for asymptomatic hyperuricaemia or for patients with estimated creatinine clearance <45 mL/min. The only authorized daily dose is 200 mg and cannot be exceeded because of the nephrotoxicity risk. Nephrotoxicity is thought to be related to uricosuria. At the 200 mg/day dose, serum creatinine more than doubled in 1.8% of lesinurad patients (versus 0% in placebo) and in 11% of these it was not reversible. In addition, it is subject to a risk management plan given the potential association with cardiovascular events. In randomized clinical trials, the association of lesinurad with either allopurinol or febuxostat achieved a greater reduction in serum uric acid (∼1 mg/dL lower) than the XO inhibitors alone, and this allowed the serum uric acid target to be met in a higher proportion of patients, which was the primary endpoint. However, no clinical differences were observed in gout flares or tophi, although these were not the primary endpoints.

RGD-Binding Integrins in Head and Neck Cancers

Alterations in integrin expression and function promote tumour growth, invasion, metastasis and neoangiogenesis. Head and neck cancers are highly vascular tumours with a tendency to metastasise. They express a wide range of integrin receptors. Expression of the αv and β1 subunits has been explored relatively extensively and linked to tumour progression and metastasis. Individual receptors αvβ3 and αvβ5 have proved popular targets for diagnostic and therapeutic agents but lesser studied receptors, such as αvβ6, αvβ8, and β1 subfamily members, also show promise. This review presents the current knowledge of integrin expression and function in squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC), with a particular focus on the arginine-glycine-aspartate (RGD)-binding integrins, in order to highlight the potential of integrins as targets for personalised tumour-specific identification and therapy.

Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy

Background

The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed.

Methods

A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM.

Results

There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4–9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4–8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3–3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0–10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Conclusions

The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol-attributable conditions and subsequent problems in coding of alcoholic CM deaths.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-017-0137-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Pathogenesis of vascular leak in dengue virus infection

Endothelial dysfunction leading to vascular leak is the hallmark of severe dengue. Vascular leak typically becomes clinically evident 3-6 days after the onset of illness, which is known as the critical phase. This critical phase follows the period of peak viraemia, and lasts for 24-48 hr and usually shows rapid and complete reversal, suggesting that it is likely to occur as a result of inflammatory mediators, rather than infection of the endothelium. Cytokines such as tumour necrosis factor-α, which are known to be elevated in the critical phase of dengue, are likely to be contributing factors. Dengue NS1, a soluble viral protein, has also been shown to disrupt the endothelial glycocalyx and thus contribute to vascular leak, although there appears to be a discordance between the timing of NS1 antigenaemia and occurrence of vascular leak. In addition, many inflammatory lipid mediators are elevated in acute dengue viral infection such as platelet activating factor (PAF) and leukotrienes. Furthermore, many other inflammatory mediators such as vascular endothelial growth factor and angiopoietin-2 have been shown to be elevated in patients with dengue haemorrhagic fever, exerting their action in part by inducing the activity of phospholipases, which have diverse inflammatory effects including generation of PAF. Platelets have also been shown to significantly contribute to endothelial dysfunction by production of interleukin-1β through activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome and also by inducing production of inflammatory cytokines by monocytes. Drugs that block down-stream immunological mediator pathways such as PAF may also be beneficial in the treatment of severe disease.

Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion with Interspinous Fastener Provides Comparable Clinical Outcome and Fusion Rate to Pedicle Screws

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the clinical feasibility and validity of interspinous fastener (ISF) for lumbar degenerative diseases.

METHODS

From October 2013 to March 2014, a total of 46 patients suffering from lumbar degenerative diseases underwent posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) randomly augmented by ISF or pedicle screws. The clinical outcome was primarily measured by Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score. The minimal clinical important difference (MCID) was defined as an eight-point decrease in ODI. The second clinical outcome measurement was Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score. Interbody fusion rates were evaluated by lumbar plain radiograph and computed tomography (CT) scan. Complications were also compared between groups. Statistical analyses were performed by SPSS version 13.0. Sample size calculation was performed before the study. The type I error α was set at 0.05 and the type II error β at 0.1. Based on these assumptions and adding 10% for possible drop-outs, sample size calculations indicated that a total of 46 patients were required for the study. Parametric data was compared by independent t-test and categorical variables were compared using χ² -tests or Fisher exact tests depending on the sample size. A P-value of less than 0.05 was considered significantly statistically different. Fleiss kappa coefficients were calculated for intra-observer and inter-observer reliability.

RESULTS

A total of 43 patients completed the follow-up, with 22 cases in the ISF group and 21 patients in the pedicle screws group, respectively. Less intraoperative blood loss and shorter operation time were observed in the ISF group. The mean ODI significantly declined in both groups, with the ISF group's decreasing from preoperative 43.3 ± 8.2 to 21.4 ± 3.5 at 24-month follow-up and the pedicle screws group's decreasing from preoperative 42.9 ± 7.9 to 22.5 ±3.8 at 24-month follow-up, respectively. The ODI changes between groups had no statistical difference (P > 0.05). Of the 43 patients, 33 patients achieved an MCID. The bone fusion rate was 77.3% according to X-rays and 68.2% according to CT scans in the ISF group, and 81.0% according to X-rays and 76.2% according to CT scans in the pedicle screws group at the final follow-up. The intra-observer and inter-observer reliability assessed by the kappa value were 0.93 and 0.89, respectively. One patient in the pedicle screws group demonstrated screw loosening at the 6-month follow-up but was asymptomatic. One patient with spondylolisthesis in the ISF group demonstrated cage subsidence during the follow-up but also without related symptoms.

CONCLUSION

The less invasive ISF combined with PLIF provided comparable clinical outcome and a similar bone fusion rate to pedicle screws. The ISF could potentially serve as a new alternative for lumbar degenerative diseases.

Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study

Background

Reliable estimation of future trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability is crucial for ageing societies. Previous forecasts have not considered the potential impact of trends in disease incidence. The present prediction model combines population trends in cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability in England and Wales up to 2025.

Methods

We developed and validated the IMPACT-Better Ageing Model—a probabilistic model that tracks the population aged 35–100 years through ten health states characterised by the presence or absence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability (difficulty with one or more activities of daily living) or death up to 2025, by use of evidence-based age-specific, sex-specific, and year-specific transition probabilities. As shown in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we projected continuing declines in dementia incidence (2·7% per annum), cardiovascular incidence, and mortality. The model estimates disability prevalence and disabled and disability-free life expectancy by year.

Findings

Between 2015 and 2025, the number of people aged 65 years and older will increase by 19·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 17·7–20·9), from 10·4 million (10·37–10·41 million) to 12·4 million (12·23–12·57 million). The number living with disability will increase by 25·0% (95% UI 21·3–28·2), from 2·25 million (2·24–2·27 million) to 2·81 million (2·72–2·89 million). The age-standardised prevalence of disability among this population will remain constant, at 21·7% (95% UI 21·5–21·8) in 2015 and 21·6% (21·3–21·8) in 2025. Total life expectancy at age 65 years will increase by 1·7 years (95% UI 0·1–3·6), from 20·1 years (19·9–20·3) to 21·8 years (20·2–23·6). Disability-free life expectancy at age 65 years will increase by 1·0 years (95% UI 0·1–1·9), from 15·4 years (15·3–15·5) to 16·4 years (15·5–17·3). However, life expectancy with disability will increase more in relative terms, with an increase of roughly 15% from 2015 (4·7 years, 95% UI 4·6–4·8) to 2025 (5·4 years, 4·7–6·4).

Interpretation

The number of older people with care needs will expand by 25% by 2025, mainly reflecting population ageing rather than an increase in prevalence of disability. Lifespans will increase further in the next decade, but a quarter of life expectancy at age 65 years will involve disability.

Funding

British Heart Foundation.

Feasibility Pilot Study of a Teaching Kitchen and Self-Care Curriculum in a Workplace Setting

Objective. To examine the feasibility of a prototype Teaching Kitchen (TK) self-care intervention that offers the combination of culinary, nutrition, exercise, and mindfulness instruction with health coaching; and to describe research methods whereby the impact of TK models can be scientifically assessed. Design. Feasibility pilot study. Subjects were recruited, screened, and consented to participate in 14- or 16-week programs. Feasibility was assessed through ease of recruitment and attendance. One-sample t tests and generalized estimating equation models were used to compare differences in groups. Setting. Workplace. Subjects. Two cohorts of 20 employees and their partners. Results. All 40 participants completed the program with high attendance (89%) and response rates on repeated assessments. Multiple changes were observed in biomarkers and self-reported behaviors from baseline to postprogram including significant ( P < .05) decreases from baseline to postprogram in body weight (-2.8 kg), waist circumference (-2.2 in.), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (-7.7 and -6.3 mm Hg, respectively), and total cholesterol (-7.5 mg/dL). While changes in all of the aforementioned biomarkers persisted over the 12-month follow-up (n = 32), only changes in waist circumference and diastolic blood pressure remained statistically different at 12 months. Conclusions. These study findings suggest that a TK curriculum is feasible within a workplace setting and that its impact on relevant behavioral and clinical outcomes can be scientifically assessed.