Prognostic Factors for Survival in Noncastrate Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Validation of the Glass Model and Development of a Novel Simplified Prognostic Model

Prognostic significance of early changes in serum biomarker levels in patients with newly diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer

We evaluated the impact of early changes in serum biomarker levels on the survival of patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) who were initially treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). We retrospectively investigated 330 patients with mHSPC whose serum maker levels were at baseline and at 2–4 months. An optimal Cox regression model was established with the highest optimism-corrected concordance index based on 10-fold cross-validation. The median cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were 7.08 and 6.47 years (median follow-up, 2.53 years), respectively. In the final optimal Cox model with serum biomarker levels treated as time-varying covariates, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), hemoglobin (Hb), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) significantly increased the risk of poor survival in the context of both CSS and OS. Kaplan–Meier curves stratified by the three risk factors of high PSA, low Hb and high ALP desmondtated that median OS were not reached with none of these factors, 6.47 years with one or two factors, and 1.76 years with all three factors.Early changes in serum biomarker levels after ADT may be good prognostic markers for the survival of patients with mHSPC.

Prognostic Value of Lactate Dehydrogenase in Metastatic Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic value of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in patients with metastatic prostate cancer (PC). A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed in March 2019 according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis statement. Studies were deemed eligible if they compared patients with PC with high versus low LDH to determine the predictive value of LDH for overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and progression-free survival (PFS). We performed a formal meta-analysis for both OS and PFS. A total of 59 articles with 14,851 patients were included in the systematic review and 45 studies with 12,224 patients for the qualitative assessment. High LDH was associated with both worse OS (pooled hazard ratio [HR], 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-2.44) and PFS (pooled HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16). In subgroup analyses of both patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and those with hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (HSPC), LDH was associated with OS (pooled HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.69-2.42 and pooled HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.78-2.84, respectively). In patients with CRPC, LDH was associated with OS in those treated with docetaxel systemic chemotherapy and androgen receptor-axis-targeting agents (pooled HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.37-3.00 and pooled HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.25-2.57, respectively). Elevated serum levels of LDH were associated with an increased risk of mortality and progression in patients with metastatic PC. LDH was independently associated with OS in both patients with CRPC and HSPC. LDH could be integrated into prognostic tools that help guide treatment strategy, thereby facilitating the shared decision-making process.

Novel nomograms to predict lymph node metastasis and liver metastasis in patients with early colon carcinoma

Background

Lymph node status and liver metastasis (LIM) are important in determining the prognosis of early colon carcinoma. We attempted to develop and validate nomograms to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) and LIM in patients with early colon carcinoma.

Methods

A total of 32,819 patients who underwent surgery for pT1 or pT2 colon carcinoma were enrolled in the study based on their records in the SEER database. Risk factors for LNM and LIM were assessed based on univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. The C-index and calibration plots were used to evaluate LNM and LIM model discrimination. The predictive accuracy and clinical values of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis. The predictive nomograms were further validated in the internal testing set.

Results

The LNM nomogram, consisting of seven features, achieved the same favorable prediction efficacy as the five-feature LIM nomogram. The calibration curves showed perfect agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations. The decision curves indicated the clinical usefulness of the prediction nomograms. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated good discrimination in the training set (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.667, 95% CI 0.661–0.673) and the testing set (AUC = 0.658, 95% CI 0.649–0.667) for the LNM nomogram and encouraging performance in the training set (AUC = 0.766, 95% CI 0.760–0.771) and the testing set (AUC = 0.825, 95% CI 0.818–0.832) for the LIM nomogram.

Conclusion

Novel validated nomograms for patients with early colon carcinoma can effectively predict the individualized risk of LNM and LIM, and this predictive power may help doctors formulate suitable individual treatments.

Development and validation of a new staging system for node-negative gastric cancer based on recursive partitioning analysis: An international multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND

Whether the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system is appropriate for patients with node-negative gastric cancer (GC) is still inconclusive. The modified staging system developed by recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) showed good prognostic performance in a variety of cancers. The application of RPA has not been reported in the prognostic prediction of GC.

METHODS

Node-negative GC patients who underwent radical resection at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 862) and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (n = 311) with at least 5 years of follow-up were selected as the training set. RPA was used to develop a modified staging system. Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (n = 1415) were selected as the validation set.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of patients with 8th AJCC-TNM stage IA-IIIA in the training set were IA 95.2%, IB 87.1%, IIA 78.3%, IIB 75.8%, and IIIA 72.6%. Multivariate analysis (MVA) showed that larger tumor size, elder age, and deeper depth of invasion were independent predictors for OS in patients with node-negative GC (all P < 0.05). Patients were reclassified into RPA I, RPA II, RPA III, and RPA IV stages based on RPA; the 5-year OS rates were 96.1%, 87.2%, 81.0%, and 64.3%, respectively, with significant difference (P < 0.05). Two-step MVA showed that the RPA staging system was an independent predictor of OS (P < 0.05). Compared with the 8th AJCC-TNM staging system, the RPA staging system had a smaller AIC value (2544.9 vs 2576.2), higher χ2 score (104.2 vs 69.6) and higher Harrell's C-index (0.697 vs 0.669, P = 0.007). The similar results were found in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

A new prognostic predictive system based on RPA was successfully developed and validated, which may be suggested for staging node-negative GC in future.

Risk of development of visceral metastases subsequent to abiraterone vs placebo: An analysis of mode of radiographic progression in COU-AA-302

BACKGROUND

Abiraterone increases survival in prostate cancer, but tumors resistant to abiraterone can exhibit a hormonally resistant, aggressive phenotype. We hypothesized that the therapeutic pressure of abiraterone is resulting in more clinically aggressive disease at progression, characterized by increased visceral metastases. Our objective was to determine whether abiraterone increased the risk of development of visceral metastases at the time of progression compared with placebo in a randomized phase III trial.

METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of the COU-AA-302 trial of abiraterone plus prednisone vs placebo plus prednisone in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. The primary outcome was the development of visceral metastases. The cumulative incidences of visceral metastases were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank testing. Multivariable Cox regression analysis assessed for the independent association of abiraterone with the development of visceral metastases.

RESULTS

Eighty-four of 1088 patients developed visceral metastases during study. Log-rank testing and Cox regression showed no difference in time to visceral metastases between groups (HR 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65-1.56]; P = .97). Abiraterone treatment was not associated with the development of visceral metastases in multivariable analysis (HR 0.89 [95% CI, 0.57-1.40]; P = .62). The study was limited by censoring of radiographic outcomes at the time of completion of primary study therapy; longer term risks were not assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Abiraterone was not associated with increased risk of visceral metastatic disease at the time of progression compared with placebo.

Relationship between serum markers and volume of liver metastases in castration-resistant prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer patients with liver metastases have a poor prognosis. To date, no study exists investigating the relationship between liver tumor burden and clinical laboratory markers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients with radiographic evidence of liver metastases were selected for this study. Volumetric measurements of liver metastases were ascertained for all available patients. Prostate specific antigen (PSA), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), albumin (ALB), total bilirubin and hemoglobin (HGB) levels were then assessed to coincide with the scan dates. Univariate and multivariate mixed-model regression analysis were performed to evaluate the relationship between laboratory markers and liver lesion volume. Data sets with non-normal distribution were logarithmically transformed. Akaike information criteria (AIC) was used to identify the most reliable multivariate model.

RESULTS

In our heavily pretreated liver-metastatic patient population, univariate analysis demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation between PSA (p = 0.0002), ALP (p = 0.0305), AST (p < 0.0001), ALT (p = 0.0049), and LDH (p = 0.0019) and liver lesion volume. Additionally, ALB (p = 0.0006) and HGB (p = 0.0103) had statistically significant negative correlation. Multivariate analysis identified AST and hemoglobin assessments as the best predictors of increasing liver lesion burden. Preliminary data on circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) mutational and amplification findings are also reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis identified AST and hemoglobin as optimal predictors of liver lesion volume. These patients have a heavy burden of ctDNA abnormalities. Further studies with a larger patient population are needed to verify these results. Micro Abstract: This study investigates the association between liver lesion burden and clinical laboratory markers in castrate-resistant prostate cancer patients with hepatic metastases. Our univariate analysis identified multiple laboratory markers as significant indicators of worsening hepatic disease. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that AST and hemoglobin were the most effective predictors of change in liver lesion volume.

Management algorithms for metastatic prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION

Prostate cancer poses a significant lifetime risk to Canadian men. Treatment for metastatic prostatic cancer (mPCa) is an area of ongoing research with a lack of up-to-date clinical guidance. The multidisciplinary Canadian Genitourinary Research Consortium (GURC) determined that additional guidance focusing on management of mPCa was warranted.

METHODS

The most up-to-date guidelines, consensus statements, and emerging phase 3 trials were identified and used to inform development of algorithms by a multidisciplinary genitourinary oncology panel outlining recommendations for the management of mPCa.

RESULTS

A single pan-Canadian guideline and five national and international guidelines or consensus statements published since 2015 were identified, along with two new phase 3 trials and one additional randomized comparison. Iterative GURC discussions led to the development of two mPCa algorithms: the first addressing management of newly diagnosed metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) patients and the second addressing treatment of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). For newly diagnosed mCSPC patients with high-volume/high-risk disease, either docetaxel or abiraterone acetate and prednisone (AAP) added to androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) is recommended. The addition of radiotherapy to ADT is suggested for those with low-volume disease and/or AAP to ADT for low-volume or low-risk disease. For first-line mCRPC, androgen receptor-axis-targeted (ARAT) therapy is recommended for most patients, while sequencing with docetaxel, radium-223, ARAT therapy, and/or cabazitaxel is recommended for later lines of therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Two treatment algorithms were developed for the management of mPC and can be used by multidisciplinary specialist teams to guide treatment.

Development and external validation of prognostic nomograms in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a population based study

Background: We attempted to construct and validate novel nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: Models were established using a discovery set (n=10,262) obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we identified independent risk factors for OS and CSS. Concordance indexes (c-indexes) and calibration plots were used to evaluate model discrimination. The predictive accuracy and clinical values of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Our OS nomogram with a c-index of 0.753 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.745–0.761) was based on age, sex, race, marital status, histological grade, TNM stage, tumor size, and surgery performed, and it performed better than TNM stage. Our CSS nomogram had a c-index of 0.748 (95% CI, 0.740–0.756). The calibration curves fit well. DCA showed that the two nomograms provided substantial clinical value. Internal validation produced c-indexes of 0.758 and 0.752 for OS and CSS, respectively, while external validation in the Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (SYMH) cohort produced a c-indexes of 0.702 and 0.686 for OS and CSS, respectively.

Conclusions: We have developed nomograms that enable more accurate individualized predictions of OS and CSS to help doctors better formulate individual treatment and follow-up management strategies.

Prediction of Time to Hormonal Treatment Failure in Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer with 18F-FDG PET/CT

The aim of this prospective investigation was to assess the association of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT with time to hormonal treatment failure (THTF) in men with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer. Methods: 76 men with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer recruited from 2005 to 2011 underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and were followed prospectively for THTF, defined as treatment change to chemotherapy or death. Patients who had not switched to chemotherapy were censored at the last follow-up date (median of 36 mo; range, 12-108 mo). Cox regression analyses were performed to examine the association between PET/CT measurements: sum of SUV_max, maximum SUV_max, and average SUV_max for up to 10 of the most active lesions and THTF. Survival probabilities were based on the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: 43 patients had hormonal treatment failure, and 8 died without documented treatment failure. Median THTF was 26.5 mo (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.5-46.6 mo). The THTF-free probability at 5 y was 35% ± 6%. On univariate analysis, all PET parameters, including number of lesions, were statistically significant for THTF. In a reduced multivariate model accounting for clinical variables, only sum of SUV_max (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.002-1.03; P = 0.024) and number of lesions (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.29; P < 0.001) were independently associated with THTF. When sum of SUV_max was grouped into quartile ranges, there was a significantly worse survival probability for patients in the fourth-quartile range than in the first, with a univariate hazard ratio of 6.2 (95% CI, 2.8-13.6; P < 0.001). Conclusion: Sum of SUV_max and number of lesions derived from ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT provide independent prognostic information on THTF in men with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer.

Systemic treatment for metastatic prostate cancer

The management of metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) has changed over the past ten years. Several new drugs have been approved with significant overall survival benefits in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (PCa) including chemotherapy (docetaxel, cabazitaxel), new hormonal therapies (abiraterone, enzalutamide), Radium-223 and immunotherapy. The addition of docetaxel to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) versus ADT alone in the castration sensitive metastatic setting has gained significant overall survival benefit particularly for high volume disease. More recently two phase III trials have assessed the efficacy of abiraterone plus prednisone plus ADT over ADT alone in newly high risk castrate sensitive mPCa. Determination of the appropriate treatment sequence using these therapies is important for maximizing the clinical benefit in castration sensitive and castration resistant PCa patients. Emerging fields are the identification of new subtypes with molecular characterization and new therapeutic targets.

Development and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Treatment-naïve Castration-sensitive Metastatic Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

There has been growth in the treatment options for castration-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa), but without clear guidance for risk stratification.

OBJECTIVE

To identify clinical parameters associated with overall survival (OS) and establish a prognostic model for use with treatment-naïve castration-sensitive mPCa.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective review of 304 patients treated at Kyoto University Hospital was performed. A prognostic model was created using clinical parameters associated with OS. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 520 patients.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Multivariable analysis was performed to identify the clinical parameters associated with OS. Risk scores were calculated using Cox proportional hazards analysis for each combination of risk factors, and patients were grouped into categories based on those scores.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Over 80% of the cohort had a Gleason sum score ≥8. The median OS was 53mo among patients with CHAARTED high-volume PCa (n=172) and 131mo among those with low-volume PCa (n=100). Independent factors associated with OS were extent of disease score ≥2 or the presence of liver metastasis; lactate dehydrogenase >250U/L; and a primary Gleason score of 5. The median OS for the high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups according to the new model were 28mo, 59mo, and not reached, respectively; the corresponding values in the validation cohort were 41mo, 63mo, and not reached. Harrell's C-index was 0.649.

CONCLUSIONS

Our simple and reproducible prognostic model for treatment-naïve castration-sensitive mPCa could aid in risk stratification and treatment selection.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We identified clinical parameters associated with prognosis in castration-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer and established a reproducible prognostic model that could be used to guide treatment decisions.

Time of metastatic disease presentation and volume of disease are prognostic for metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC)

BACKGROUND

Currently, there is no universally accepted prognostic classification for patients (pts) with metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Subgroup analyses demonstrated that pts with low volume (LV), per CHAARTED trial definition, mHSPC, and those who relapse after prior local therapy (PLT) have longer overall survival (OS) compared to high volume (HV) and de-novo (DN), respectively. Using a hospital-based registry, we aimed to assess whether a classification based on time of metastatic disease (PLT vs DN) and disease volume (LV vs HV) are prognostic for mHSPC pts treated with ADT.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of consecutive patients with mHSPC treated with ADT between 1990 and 2013 was selected from the prospectively collected Dana-Farber Cancer Institute database and categorized as DN or PLT and HV or LV, at time of ADT start. Primary and secondary endpoints were OS and time to castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), respectively, which were measured from date of ADT start using Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models using known prognostic factors was used.

RESULTS

The analytical cohort consisted of 436 patients. The median OS and time to CRPC for PLT/LV were 92.4 (95%CI: 80.4-127.2) and 25.6 (95%CI: 21-35.7) months and 43.2 (95%CI: 37.2-56.4) and 12.2 (95%CI: 9.8-14.8) months for DN/HV, respectively, whereas intermediate values were observed for PLT/HV and DN/LV. A robust gradient for both outcomes was observed (Trend test P < 0.0001) in the four groups. In a multivariable analysis, DN presentation, HV, and cancer-related pain were independent prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In our hospital-based registry, time of metastatic presentation and disease volume were prognostic for mHSPC pts treated with ADT. This simple prognostic classification system can aid patient counseling and future trial design.

De novo metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer: State of art and future perspectives

De novo metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) accounts for about 4% of all prostate tumors in Western Countries. This condition has a heterogeneous biological e clinical behavior, ranging from indolent to aggressive and rapidly fatal forms. Recently, the therapeutic landscape for mCSPC has been broadly enriched; indeed robust evidence supports the addiction of chemotherapy (docetaxel) or abiraterone acetate to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), the latter considered for long the unique standard of care. However, the prognostic stratification and the definition of the ideal therapeutic approach for the subpopulation of de novo mCSPC - albeit largely represented in pivotal clinical trials enrolling mCSPC patients - have yet to be prospectively outlined. The aim of this review was to describe the current state of art about clinical presentation, prognostic classification, and different therapeutic options available for de novo mCSPC patients. Furthermore, we shed light on ongoing clinical trials and future perspectives for this disease setting.

Novel nomograms for castration-resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

To develop nomograms predicting the incidence of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and overall survival (OS) for de novo metastatic prostate cancer (PCa).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data from 449 patients with de novo metastatic PCa were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 314, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 135, 30%). Predictive factors were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model and were further used for building predictive models. The outcomes were incidence of CRPC and OS.

RESULTS

Predictive factors included: Gleason score (GS), intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and prostate-specific antigen levels. IDC-P and GS were the strongest prognosticators for both the incidence of CRPC and OS. Nomograms for predicting CRPC and OS had an internal validated concordance index of 0.762 and 0.723, respectively. Based on the β coefficients of the final model, risk classification systems were constructed. For those with favourable, intermediate and poor prognosis, the median time to CRPC was 62.6, 28.0 and 13.0 months (P < 0.001), respectively; and the median OS was not reached, 55.0 and 33.0 months, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed two novel nomograms to predict the incidence of CRPC and OS for patients with de novo metastatic PCa. These tools may assist in physician decision-making and the designing of clinical trials.

Impact of early changes in serum biomarkers following androgen deprivation therapy on clinical outcomes in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

Background

Less evidence is known about the role of early changes in serum biomarker after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). Here we evaluated the impact of pre-treatment prognostic factors and early changes in serum biomarkers on prostate specific antigen (PSA) progression-free and overall survival rates in mHSPC.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 60 mHSPC patients (median age 72 years) treated with ADT whose laboratory data at baseline and following 12 weeks were available.

Results

Forty-four patients (73%) had PSA progression and 27 patients (45.0%) died during a median follow-up of 34 months. The multivariable Cox hazard model demonstrated that a log-transformed baseline PSA level (p = 0.003) and an extent of bone disease (EOD) score of ≥3 (p = 0.004) were statistically associated with an increased risk for PSA progression whereas one unit increase in a log-transformed PSA change (baseline-12 weeks) was associated with a decreased risk for PSA progression (p = 0.004). For overall survival, a high level of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at 12 weeks was associated with increased risk (p = 0.030) whereas a one-unit increase in the log-transformed PSA change was associated with decreased risk (p = 0.001).

Conclusions

An increased level of PSA at baseline, or an EOD score of ≥3 may be a good predictor of PSA progression, and a high level of ALP at 12 weeks may be a risk predictor of death. A larger decline in PSA at 12 weeks from the baseline was associated with both PSA progression-free and overall survival time. Early changes in serum biomarkers may be useful in predicting poor outcomes in patients with mHSPC who are initially treated with ADT.

Current treatment strategies for advanced prostate cancer

During the past decade, treatment strategies for patients with advanced prostate cancer involving stage IV (T4N0M0, N1M0 or M1) hormone-sensitive prostate cancer and recurrent prostate cancer after treatment with curative intent, as well as castration-resistant prostate cancer, have extensively evolved with the introduction and approval of several new agents including sipuleucel-T, radium-223, abiraterone, enzalutamide and cabazitaxel, all of which have shown significant improvement on overall survival. The appropriate use of these agents and the proper sequencing of these agents are still not optimized. The results of several recently reported randomized controlled trials and retrospective studies could assist in developing a treatment strategy for advanced prostate cancer. In addition, prospective studies and molecular characterization of tumors to address these issues are ongoing.

Management of Patients with Advanced Prostate Cancer: The Report of the Advanced Prostate Cancer Consensus Conference APCCC 2017

BACKGROUND

In advanced prostate cancer (APC), successful drug development as well as advances in imaging and molecular characterisation have resulted in multiple areas where there is lack of evidence or low level of evidence. The Advanced Prostate Cancer Consensus Conference (APCCC) 2017 addressed some of these topics.

OBJECTIVE

To present the report of APCCC 2017.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Ten important areas of controversy in APC management were identified: high-risk localised and locally advanced prostate cancer; "oligometastatic" prostate cancer; castration-naïve and castration-resistant prostate cancer; the role of imaging in APC; osteoclast-targeted therapy; molecular characterisation of blood and tissue; genetic counselling/testing; side effects of systemic treatment(s); global access to prostate cancer drugs. A panel of 60 international prostate cancer experts developed the program and the consensus questions.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The panel voted publicly but anonymously on 150 predefined questions, which have been developed following a modified Delphi process.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Voting is based on panellist opinion, and thus is not based on a standard literature review or meta-analysis. The outcomes of the voting had varying degrees of support, as reflected in the wording of this article, as well as in the detailed voting results recorded in Supplementary data.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented expert voting results can be used for support in areas of management of men with APC where there is no high-level evidence, but individualised treatment decisions should as always be based on all of the data available, including disease extent and location, prior therapies regardless of type, host factors including comorbidities, as well as patient preferences, current and emerging evidence, and logistical and economic constraints. Inclusion of men with APC in clinical trials should be strongly encouraged. Importantly, APCCC 2017 again identified important areas in need of trials specifically designed to address them.

PATIENT SUMMARY

The second Advanced Prostate Cancer Consensus Conference APCCC 2017 did provide a forum for discussion and debates on current treatment options for men with advanced prostate cancer. The aim of the conference is to bring the expertise of world experts to care givers around the world who see less patients with prostate cancer. The conference concluded with a discussion and voting of the expert panel on predefined consensus questions, targeting areas of primary clinical relevance. The results of these expert opinion votes are embedded in the clinical context of current treatment of men with advanced prostate cancer and provide a practical guide to clinicians to assist in the discussions with men with prostate cancer as part of a shared and multidisciplinary decision-making process.

A 3-variable prognostic score (3-PS) for overall survival prediction in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer treated with 223Radium-dichloride

OBJECTIVE

In mCRPC patients treated with ²²³Ra, a major issue is the validation of reliable prognostic and predictive biomarkers to maximize clinical benefit and minimize toxicities and costs. Bearing in mind how changes in tALP did not meet statistical requirements as surrogate marker for survival, aim of this single-center retrospective study was to characterize the prognostic and predictive role of baseline clinical variables associated with overall survival in patients receiving ²²³Ra treatment.

METHODS

92 consecutive CRPC patients with symptomatic bone metastases receiving ²²³Ra treatment were included. Available baseline clinical data relevant to the survival analysis were retrospectively collected. The primary end-point of the study was overall survival, which was established from the first ²²³Ra administration until date of death from any cause.

RESULTS

Median follow-up time from the first ²²³Ra administration was 6 months (range 1-31 months). The univariate analysis evaluating the prognostic value of all baseline clinical variables showed that patients' weight, BMI, ECOG PS, Hb and tALP values were independently associated with OS. On multivariable analysis only baseline Hb value and ECOG PS remained significantly correlated with OS. To determine reliable baseline predictive factors for survival in patients receiving ²²³Ra treatment, we produced a predictive score. We tried all possible variable combinations, and found that the best score was obtained by combining baseline ECOG PS with Hb < 12 g/dl and PSA ≥ 20 ng/ml. This resulted in a score ranging from 0 to 4, with AUC 78.4% (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We propose a multidimensional clinical evaluation to select those mCRPC subjects suitable to receive the maximum benefit from ²²³Ra treatment.

Assessment of the prognostic value of the 8th AJCC staging system for patients with clinically staged prostate cancer; A time to sub-classify stage IV?

BACKGROUND

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (8th edition) for prostate cancer has been published. The current study seeks to validate the prognostic performance of the changes in the new system among clinically staged prostate cancer patients registered within the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database.

METHODS

SEER database (2004-2014) has been accessed through SEER*Stat program and AJCC 7th and 8th edition stages were calculated utilizing T, N and M stages as well as baseline prostatic specific antigen (PSA) and grade group. Cancer-specific and overall survival analyses according to 6th, 7th and 8th editions were conducted through Kaplan-Meier analysis. Moreover, multivariate analysis was conducted through a Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

A total of 110499 patients with prostate cancer were identified in the period from 2004-2014.For cancer- specific survival according to 8th AJCC, all pair wise P values for comparison were significant (<0.01) except for stage IIA vs. IIB; while for overall survival according to 8th AJCC, all pair wise P values for comparison were significant (<0.02) except for stage IIIA vs. IIIB. Results of c-index assessment for cancer-specific survival for the three AJCC editions were as follows: c-index for AJCC 6th edition was 0.816; c-index for AJCC 7th edition was 0.897; c-index for AJCC 8th edition was 0.907. For stage IVB prostate cancer (i.e.M1 disease), further sub-staging was proposed according to M1 sub-stage (i.e. M1a, M1b and M1c). Pair wise comparison between these proposed sub-stages was conducted for both cancer-specific and overall survival. For both cancer-specific and overall survival, all pair wise P values for comparisons were <0.0001.

CONCLUSION

Compared to older staging systems (6th and 7th), the 8th system is more discriminatory. Further sub-classification of stage IV disease is suggested.

Validation of American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth staging system among prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy

Background

The objective in this paper was to validate the prognostic performance of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th and 8th systems among prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy.

Methods

The surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database (2006-2014) was accessed through the SEER*Stat program and AJCC 7th and 8th editions were calculated utilizing T, N and M stages, histological grade group, as well as baseline prostatic-specific antigen (PSA). Cancer-specific and overall survival analyses according to 7th and 8th editions were conducted. Moreover, multivariate analysis was conducted through a Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

A total of 72,999 patients with prostate cancer were identified in the period from 2006 to 2014. Overall survival was assessed according to AJCC 7th and 8th staging systems. The test for trend for overall survival was significant (p < 0.0001) for both staging systems. Concordance index for AJCC 7th system was: 0.791 [standard error of the mean (SE): 0.017; 95% CI: 0.758-0.825]; while concordance index for AJCC 8th system was: 0.840 (SE: 0.015; 95% CI: 0.811-0.869). In a multivariate analysis among patients with M0 disease, lower grade group, N0 stage and pT2 stage were associated with better cancer-specific survival (p < 0.01); while PSA level did not predict cancer-specific survival.

Conclusion

There is a clear improvement in the discriminatory ability for AJCC 8th versus AJCC 7th staging system in the postprostatectomy setting. This may be related to better integration of biological factors into the staging system.

Abiraterone plus Prednisone in Metastatic, Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

Abiraterone acetate, a drug that blocks endogenous androgen synthesis, plus prednisone is indicated for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. We evaluated the clinical benefit of abiraterone acetate plus prednisone with androgen-deprivation therapy in patients with newly diagnosed, metastatic, castration-sensitive prostate cancer.

METHODS

In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned 1199 patients to receive either androgen-deprivation therapy plus abiraterone acetate (1000 mg daily, given once daily as four 250-mg tablets) plus prednisone (5 mg daily) (the abiraterone group) or androgen-deprivation therapy plus dual placebos (the placebo group). The two primary end points were overall survival and radiographic progression-free survival.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 30.4 months at a planned interim analysis (after 406 patients had died), the median overall survival was significantly longer in the abiraterone group than in the placebo group (not reached vs. 34.7 months) (hazard ratio for death, 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51 to 0.76; P<0.001). The median length of radiographic progression-free survival was 33.0 months in the abiraterone group and 14.8 months in the placebo group (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.55; P<0.001). Significantly better outcomes in all secondary end points were observed in the abiraterone group, including the time until pain progression, next subsequent therapy for prostate cancer, initiation of chemotherapy, and prostate-specific antigen progression (P<0.001 for all comparisons), along with next symptomatic skeletal events (P=0.009). These findings led to the unanimous recommendation by the independent data and safety monitoring committee that the trial be unblinded and crossover be allowed for patients in the placebo group to receive abiraterone. Rates of grade 3 hypertension and hypokalemia were higher in the abiraterone group.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of abiraterone acetate and prednisone to androgen-deprivation therapy significantly increased overall survival and radiographic progression-free survival in men with newly diagnosed, metastatic, castration-sensitive prostate cancer. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development; LATITUDE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01715285 .).

Circulating Tumor Cells as a Marker for Progression-free Survival in Metastatic Castration-naïve Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

Analysis of circulating tumor cells (CTC) is a promising prognostic marker in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The aim of this study was to investigate CTC detection and phenotyping as prognostic biomarkers for response to primary androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) of metastatic prostate cancer (PC).

METHODS

PC patients presenting with a prostate specific antigen (PSA) >80 ng/ml and/or metastatic disease, intended for ADT were enrolled in the study. CTCs were analysed for expression of PSA prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) before and three months after ADT and related to progression.

RESULTS

At inclusion, 46 out of 53 patients (87%) were CTC-positive with a sensitivity and specificity for distant metastases (M1) of 98% and 75%, respectively. In patients with M1-disease, EGFR-detection in CTC was an independent prognostic marker for progression-free survival, whereas PSA and alkaline phosphatase serum levels, Gleason score, or T-stage were not. EGFR-positive patients had significantly shorter time to progression (5 months) compared to EGFR-negative patients (11 months) (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this explorative study, CTCs were detected in 98% of M1 patients and detection of EGFR in CTCs was strongly associated with poor outcome, which indicated that phenotypical analysis of CTC could be a promising prognostic marker of ADT-response in castration-naïve metastatic PC patients. Prostate 77:849-858, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tools for Predicting Clinical and Patient-reported Outcomes in Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Androgen Deprivation Therapy: A Systematic Review of Prognostic Accuracy and Validity

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) can result in a range of adverse symptoms that reduce patients' quality of life. Careful patient counseling on the likely clinical outcomes and adverse effects is therefore vital. The present systematic review was undertaken to identify and characterize all the tools used for the prediction of clinical and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in patients with prostate cancer undergoing ADT. PubMed and EMBASE were systematically searched from 2007 to 2016. Search terms related to the inclusion criteria were: prostate cancer, clinical outcomes, PROMs, ADT, and prognosis. Titles and abstracts were reviewed to find relevant studies, which were advanced to full-text review. The reference lists were screened for additional studies. The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine critical appraisal of prognostic studies tool was applied. The search strategy identified 8755 studies. Of the 8755 studies, 22 on clinical outcomes were identified. However, no studies of PROMs were found. Nine tools could be used to predict clinical outcomes in treatment-naive patients and 10 in patients with recurrence. The Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) nomogram was the best performing and validated tool for the prediction of clinical outcomes in treatment-naive patients, and the Chi and Shamash prognostic indexes have been validated for use in patients with castration-resistant disease in different clinical contexts. Using the J-CAPRA nomogram should help clinicians deliver accurate, evidence-based counseling to patients undergoing primary ADT. A strong need exists for primary studies that derive and validate tools for the prediction of PROMs in patients undergoing ADT under any circumstance because these are currently absent from the literature.

Chemotherapy in hormone-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer: Evidences and uncertainties from the literature

Data from the literature support with strong evidence the addition of docetaxel to androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) for men with metastatic prostate cancer, and starting therapy for the first time. A meta-analysis of three randomized controlled trials showed a significant improvement of overall survival when ADT was combined with docetaxel when compared to ADT alone (HR=0.77; 95% CI: 0.68-0.87; p<0.0001). Consequently, combination therapy should be considered presently as the new standard of care, using 6 cycles of docetaxel, without prednisone. However, candidates for this upfront combination therapy in whom the balance between its side effects and benefits is favorable are still to be identified more precisely. Patients' stratification according to Gleason score, previous local treatment and age or performance status were shown to have a prognostic impact. The volume of metastases, as defined in the CHAARTED study for instance, could be an interesting predictive factor. However, data accumulated until now remain only hypothesis generating and further analysis and studies are needed to establish any potential discriminating factors. Several new efficient therapeutic options are now available in prostate cancer management and should be evaluated against a chemo-hormonal combination therapy. Other trials are warranted to establish the role of docetaxel in earlier stages of the disease, the combination with the new hormonal therapies as well as the best management options after docetaxel.

Clinical presentation and predictors of survival related to extent of bone metastasis in 900 prostate cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of bone metastasis on survival and quality of life (QoL) in men with hormone-naïve prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 900 patients from a randomized trial (No. 5) by the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group, comparing parenteral oestrogen with total androgen blockade. Extent of bone metastasis was categorized according to a modified Soloway score: score 1, n = 319; score 2, n = 483; and score 3, n = 98 patients. The primary outcome measurements were mean differences in QoL and overall survival.

RESULTS

QoL rating scales showed a decrease with increasing extent of bone metastasis (p < 0.001). The mean global health status decreased from 64.4 to 50.5 for Soloway score 1 and 3, respectively. Following adjustment for performance status, analgesic consumption, grade of malignancy, alkaline phosphatase, prostate-specific antigen, haemoglobin and global health status, Soloway score 2 and 3 had a 47% [hazard ratio (HR) 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-1.80] and 78% (HR 1.78 95%, CI 1.32-2.42) increased mortality, respectively, compared to Soloway score 1. Independent predictive factors of mortality were assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient grouping based on three categories of extent of bone metastasis related to performance status, haemoglobin and global health status at presentation, as independent predictors of mortality, may provide improved accuracy of prognosis.

An Update on Triptorelin: Current Thinking on Androgen Deprivation Therapy for Prostate Cancer

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is the mainstay palliative treatment for men with locally advanced and metastatic prostate cancer, and aims to reduce testosterone to levels obtained by surgical castration. Use of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists predominates among the ADT options. The GnRH agonist, triptorelin is a first-line hormonal therapy that has demonstrated efficacy and safety in clinical trials of patients with locally advanced non-metastatic or metastatic disease. Sustained-release 1-, 3- and 6-month formulations of triptorelin, administered intramuscularly or subcutaneously, have been developed to provide improved flexibility and convenience for the patient. Head-to-head studies of GnRH agonists are lacking in the field of prostate cancer. Despite the inevitable progression to castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) in most patients receiving ADT, monitoring of testosterone levels needs to improve in routine practice and physicians should not overlook the benefits of continued ADT in their patients when introducing one of the various new treatment options for CRPC. For improved survival outcomes, there remains a need to tailor ADT treatment regimens, novel hormonal agents and chemotherapy according to the individual patient with advanced prostate cancer.

Body mass index and mortality in prostate cancer patients: a dose-response meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies concerning the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality in prostate cancer yielded mixed results. We investigated the association by performing a meta-analysis of all available studies.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE to August 2015. We calculated the summary hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using random-effects models. We estimated combined HRs associated with defined increments of BMI, using random-effects meta-analysis and dose-response meta-regression models.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven cohort studies and one case-control study involving 27 38 000 patients of prostate cancer were selected for meta-analysis. The summary results indicated higher prediagnosis BMI but not postdiagnosis BMI was associated with increased risk of death from prostate cancer. An increment of every 5 kg/m(2) in prediagnosis BMI was associated with a 15% higher prostate cancer-specific mortality (HR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.07-1.23, P<0.01). Prediagnosis or postdiagnosis BMI showed no effect on all-cause mortality in prostate cancer patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, higher prediagnosis BMI is associated with a higher risk of death from prostate cancer. Considering the significant heterogeneity among included studies, these findings require confirmation in future studies.

Serum lactate dehydrogenase and survival following cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

There is evidence that high level of serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) is associated with poorer overall survival in several malignancies, but its link to cancer-specific survival is unclear.

METHODS

A total of 7895 individuals diagnosed with cancer between 1986 and 1999 were selected for this study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess overall and cancer-specific death by the z-score and clinical categories of serum LDH prospectively collected within 3 years before diagnosis. Site-specific analysis was performed for major cancers. Analysis was repeated by different lag times between LDH measurements and diagnosis.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 5799 participants were deceased. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and cancer-specific death in the multivariable model were 1.43 (1.31-1.56) and 1.46 (1.32-1.61), respectively, for high compared with low prediagnostic LDH. Site-specific analysis showed high LDH to correlate with an increased risk of death from prostate, pulmonary, colorectal, gastro-oesophageal, gynaecological and haematological cancers. Serum LDH assessed within intervals closer to diagnosis was more strongly associated with overall and cancer-specific death.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrated an inverse association of baseline serum LDH with cancer-specific survival, corroborating its role in cancer progression.

Should docetaxel be standard of care for patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer? Pro and contra

Following the results of the TAX-327 study, questions have been raised as to whether administering chemotherapy to men with prostate cancer before symptomatic disease progression when receiving standard hormonal treatment can improve the duration and quality of patient survival. The GETUG-AFU-15 and CHAARTED studies both assessed the efficacy and tolerability of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with or without docetaxel in men with metastatic hormone-naive prostate cancer. Both studies included a mix of patients with de novo metastatic disease (∼75%) and patients who developed metastases following treatment of localized disease. A short course of ADT was allowed in both trials prior to accrual. Key differences between the two studies include the number of patients with high-volume metastases (GETUG-AFU-15: 52%; CHAARTED: 65%) and number of docetaxel cycles (GETUG-AFU-15: up to nine cycles; CHAARTED six cycles). Both studies reported an improvement in progression-free survival with docetaxel plus ADT versus ADT alone. The GETUG-AFU-15 did not find a significant difference in the primary end point of overall survival (OS) {hazard ratio (HR) 0.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7-1.2]; P = 0.44} for ADT plus docetaxel versus ADT alone. The CHAARTED study met the primary end point of OS [HR 0.61 (95% CI 0.47-0.80); P = 0.0003], and in a subset analysis reported the greatest improvement in OS for patients with high-volume disease [HR 0.60 (95% CI 0.45-0.81); P = 0.0006]. The following article debates the results from the GETUG-AFU-15 and CHAARTED studies and asks whether medical practice should be changed for patients with metastatic hormone-naive prostate cancer based on the results of one positive study.

[Metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer]

The prostate cancer in its hormone-sensitive metastatic presentation is infrequent, it is either an initial presentation of the disease or an evolution after local treatment, without castration of the biological relapse. The surgical or biological castration remains the cornerstone of the treatment. The deadline of castration initiation and its modalities of administration, intermittent or continuous rest debated but consensual on the initiation is the appearance of the symptomatic disease. The chemotherapy by docetaxel in association with the castration increases significantly the survival of the patients having a high tumoral volume. The efficacy on the whole metastatic population requires additional analyses. Clinical prognostic factors as the bone localizations (axial or appendicular), the visceral involvement (liver, lung) are determining for the survival of these patients. Biological prognostic factors are in evaluation. Except the clodronate acid, which showed a survival improvement in the hormone-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer (HSMPC), the other treatments targeting the bone (zoledronic acid, rank-ligand inhibitor) demonstrated a benefit only in castrate resistant metastatic prostate cancer (MCRPC). The management of local disease lets suggest a benefit to at least symptomatic disease, but it requires to be estimated prospectively in clinical trials. The new hormonal treatments targeting the androgen receptor in CPMRC are in evaluation in CPMHS. The objective is to increase the survival and the quality of life of the CPMHS and to delay the evolution towards the castration resistant metastatic disease.