Periodic extinction of families and genera

The impact of the species-area relationship on estimates of paleodiversity

Estimates of paleodiversity patterns through time have relied on datasets that lump taxonomic occurrences from geographic areas of varying size per interval of time. In essence, such estimates assume that the species-area effect, whereby more species are recorded from larger geographic areas, is negligible for fossil data. We tested this assumption by using the newly developed Miocene Mammal Mapping Project database of western North American fossil mammals and its associated analysis tools to empirically determine the geographic area that contributed to species diversity counts in successive temporal bins. The results indicate that a species-area effect markedly influences counts of fossil species, just as variable spatial sampling influences diversity counts on the modern landscape. Removing this bias suggests some traditionally recognized peaks in paleodiversity are just artifacts of the species-area effect while others stand out as meriting further attention. This discovery means that there is great potential for refining existing time-series estimates of paleodiversity, and for using species-area relationships to more reliably understand the magnitude and timing of such biotically important events as extinction, lineage diversification, and long-term trends in ecological structure.

Finding a second sample of life on earth

If life emerges readily under Earth-like conditions, the possibility arises of multiple terrestrial genesis events. We seek to quantify the probability of this scenario using estimates of the Archean bombardment rate and the fact that life established itself fairly rapidly on Earth once conditions became favorable. We find a significant likelihood that at least one more sample of life, referred to here as alien life, may have emerged on Earth, and could have coexisted with known life. Indeed, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of extant alien life. We offer some suggestions for how an alternative sample of life might be detected.

Identifying Phanerozoic extinction controls: statistical considerations and preliminary results

Two prominent patterns have been recognized in Phanerozoic extinction data: (1) a quasi-periodic distribution of extinction-intensity peaks, and (2) a linear, declining background extinction intensity gradient. Characterization and interpretation of both patterns are necessary to understand Phanerozoic extinction controls. The extinction-intensity peak spectrum has been variously interpreted as a reflection of the time-series of major sea-level regressions, continental flood-basalt province (CFBP) eruptions, and bolide impacts. In order to evaluate the level of association between these time-series and the Phanerozoic marine invertebrate extinction record statistically, a new Monte Carlo simulation strategy is presented. Results of simulation-based tests suggest that the time-series of major, eustatic sea-level regressions and CFBP eruption events have a statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) association with Tatarian-Pliocene, stage-level, extinction intensity peaks. Associations between this peak series and the time-series of crater-producing bolide impacts do not appear significant at this level. A limited multicausal event scenario was also tested using the Monte Carlo method, and recognized the combination of sea-level regression and CFBP volcanism to be significantly associated with the largest extinction intensity peaks of the last 250 Ma. The background extinction-intensity gradient has been interpreted variously as: (1) an indicator of progressive improvement in extinction resistance through selection; (2) the by-product of an invasion of marginal (extinction-resistant) habitats; and (3) as a taxonomic-stratigraphical artefact. Results of subdivided linear trend analyses suggest that the background extinction-intensity gradient is largely confined to the Late Palaeozoic-Cenozoic interval. No statistically significant gradient is present in the most recent compilation of Early-Middle Palaeozoic data on marine, invertebrate extinctions. The timing of gradient initiation and extinction variance analyses suggest that reorganization of global carbon cycles and oceanographical circulation patterns in the Devonian-Early Carboniferous, and the evolutionary appearance of modern phytoplankton groups in the Late Triassic both had dramatic effects on the character of the extinction-intensity gradient.

Increased Longevities of Post-Paleozoic Marine Genera After Mass Extinctions

Cohorts of marine taxa that originated during recoveries from mass extinctions were commonly more widespread spatially than those originating at other times. Coupled with the recognition of a correlation between the geographic ranges and temporal longevities of marine taxa, this observation predicts that recovery taxa were unusually long-lived geologically. We analyzed this possibility by assessing the longevities of marine genus cohorts that originated in successive substages throughout the Phanerozoic. Results confirm that several mass extinction recovery cohorts were significantly longer lived than other cohorts, but this effect was limited to the post-Paleozoic, suggesting differences in the dynamics of Paleozoic versus post-Paleozoic diversification.

Mass extinctions, biodiversity explosions and ecological niches

The logistic model proposed by Courtillot and Gaudemer to describe the growth of biodiversity during geological ages is more explored here and further developed. A new parameterisation is first proposed. Another expression of this model is obtained by introducing a new variable representing the number of ecological niches. It appears that the rates of increase of biodiversity during Jurassic and Cretaceous periods is quite different from other ones. The classical literature essentially focuses on possible extinction mechanisms, but explosions in biodiversity must be more precisely explored. For this purpose, on the basis of data analysis through different expressions of the logistic model, different ecological mechanisms can be assumed (e.g., qualitative and quantitative niches changes, possible appearance of new kinds of ecological relationships, such as 'niche-sharing', which involves coexistence or cooperation), even if genetic processes must also be involved. Finally, we emphasise the astonishing speed of biological diversification following a 'catastrophic' mass extinction. We could refer to this feature as 'catastrophic biological diversification'.

Palaeontological databases for palaeobiogeography, palaeoecology and biodiversity: a question of scale

Computerized databases provide an essential tool for investigating large-scale spatial and temporal palaeontological problems. Although advances in both software and hardware have made the logistics of building a database much easier, fundamental problems remain concerning the representation and qualification of the data. Data from the fossil record are highly heterogeneous. Databases must be designed to account for variations in scale (grain, resolution), inconsistency in the data, and potential errors (inaccuracy). These issues vary with the scope of the study (extent), the biological group, and the nature and scale-dependence of supplementary, non-biological datasets (e.g. climate and ocean parameters). With the application of desktop geographic information systems (GIS) to global Earth systems science, and the ability to efficiently integrate and query large, diverse datasets, the need to ensure robust qualification of data, especially scale, has become all the more essential. This chapter examines some of the issues involved, defines terminology and offers pragmatic solutions.

Large-scale heterogeneity of the fossil record: implications for Phanerozoic biodiversity studies

Patterns of origination, extinction and standing diversity through time have been inferred from tallies of taxa preserved in the fossil record. This approach assumes that sampling of the fossil record is effectively uniform over time. Although recent evidence suggests that our sampling of the available rock record has indeed been very thorough and effective, there is also overwhelming evidence that the rock record available for sampling is itself distorted by major systematic biases. Data on rock outcrop area compiled for post-Palaeozoic sediments from Western Europe at stage level are presented. These show a strongly cyclical pattern corresponding to first- and second-order sequence stratigraphical depositional cycles. Standing diversity increases over time and, at the coarsest scale, is decoupled from surface outcrop area. This increasing trend can therefore be considered a real pattern. Changes in standing diversity and origination rates over time-scales measured in tens of millions of years, however, are strongly correlated with surface outcrop area. Extinction peaks conform to a random-walk model, but larger peaks occur at just two positions with respect to second-order stratigraphical sequences, towards the culmination of stacked transgressive system tracts and close to system bases, precisely the positions where taxonomic last occurrences are predicted to cluster under a random distribution model. Many of the taxonomic patterns that have been described from the fossil record conform to a species-area effect. Whether this arises primarily from sampling bias, or from changing surface area of marine shelf seas through time and its effect on biodiversity, remains problematic.

The shape of life: how much is written in stone?

Considering the enormous diversity of living organisms, representing mostly untapped resources for studying ecological, ontogenetic and phylogenetic patterns and processes, why should evolutionary biologists concern themselves with the remains of animals and plants that died out tens or even hundreds of millions of years ago? The reason is that important new insights into some of the most vexing evolutionary questions are being revealed at the interfaces of palaeontology, developmental biology and molecular biology. Attempts to synthesise information from these disciplines, however, often encounter their greatest hurdles in considerations of the radiation of the Metazoa. Ongoing challenges relate to the origins of body plans, the relationships of the metazoan phyla and the timing of major evolutionary radiations. Palaeontology not only has its own unique contributions to the study of evolutionary processes, but provides a lynchpin for many of the emerging techniques.

Cooler winters as a possible cause of mass extinctions at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary

The Eocene/Oligocene boundary, at about 33.7 Myr ago, marks one of the largest extinctions of marine invertebrates in the Cenozoic period. For example, turnover of mollusc species in the US Gulf coastal plain was over 90% at this time. A temperature change across this boundary--from warm Eocene climates to cooler conditions in the Oligocene--has been suggested as a cause of this extinction event, but climate reconstructions have not provided support for this hypothesis. Here we report stable oxygen isotope measurements of aragonite in fish otoliths--ear stones--collected across the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. Palaeo-temperatures reconstructed from mean otolith oxygen isotope values show little change through this interval, in agreement with previous studies. From incremental microsampling of otoliths, however, we can resolve the seasonal variation in temperature, recorded as the otoliths continue to accrete new material over the life of the fish. These seasonal data suggest that winters became about 4 degrees C colder across the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. We suggest that temperature variability, rather than change in mean annual temperature, helped to cause faunal turnover during this transition.

An empirical assessment of taxic paleobiology

The analysis of major changes in faunal diversity through time is a central theme of analytical paleobiology. The most important sources of data are literature-based compilations of stratigraphic ranges of fossil taxa. The levels of error in these compilations and the possible effects of such error have often been discussed but never directly assessed. We compared our comprehensive database of trilobites to the equivalent portion of J. J. Sepkoski Jr.'s widely used global genus database. More than 70% of entries in the global database are inaccurate; however, as predicted, the error is randomly distributed and does not introduce bias.

Extensive 200-million-year-Old continental flood basalts of the central atlantic magmatic province

The Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) is defined by tholeiitic basalts that crop out in once-contiguous parts of North America, Europe, Africa, and South America and is associated with the breakup of Pangea. 40Ar/39Ar and paleomagnetic data indicate that CAMP magmatism extended over an area of 2.5 million square kilometers in north and central Brazil, and the total aerial extent of the magmatism exceeded 7 million square kilometers in a few million years, with peak activity at 200 million years ago. The magmatism coincided closely in time with a major mass extinction at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary.

J. John Sepkoski Jr. (1948-1999)

With Jack Sepkoski's sudden death from heart failure on May 1, 1999, paleontology lost one of its most important figures. In his 25–year career, Jack published more than 70 research articles, 15 of them in this journal, and an equal number of reviews, commentaries, and abstracts. He co-edited Paleobiology (1983–86), received the Schuchert Award (1983), and served as President of the Paleontological Society (1995–96). In 1997, he was elected to the Polish Academy of Sciences and in the same year received the Medal of the University of Helsinki. Further recognition would surely have followed but for his untimely death.

The evolution of diversity in ancient ecosystems: a review

On a perfect planet, such as might be acceptable to a physicist, one might predict that from its origin the diversity of life would grow exponentially until the carrying capacity, however defined, was reached. The fossil record of the Earth, however, tells a very different story. One of the most striking aspects of this record is the apparent evolutionary longueur, marked by the Precambrian record of prokaryotes and primitive eukaryotes, although our estimates of microbial diversity may be seriously incomplete. Subsequently there were various dramatic increases in diversity, including the Cambrian ‘explosion’ and the radiation of Palaeozoic–style faunas in the Ordovician. The causes of these events are far from resolved. It has also long been appreciated that the history of diversity has been punctuated by important extinctions. The subtleties and nuances of extinction as well as the survival of particular clades have to date, however, received rather too little attention, and there is still a tendency towards blanket assertions rather than a dissection of these extraordinary events. In addition, some but perhaps not all mass extinctions are characterized by long lag–times of recovery, which may reflect the slowing waning of extrinsic forcing factors or alternatively the incoherence associated with biological reassembly of stable ecosystems. The intervening periods between the identified mass extinctions may be less stable and benign than popularly thought, and in particular the frequency of extraterrestrial impacts leads to predictions of recurrent disturbance on timescales significantly shorter than the intervals separating the largest extinction events. Even at times of quietude it is far from clear whether biological communities enjoy stability and interlocked stasis or are dynamically reconstituted at regular intervals. Finally, can we yet rely on the present depictions of the rise and falls in the levels of ancient diversity? Existing data is almost entirely based on Linnean taxa, and the application of phylogenetic systematics to this problem is still in its infancy. Not only that, but even more intriguingly the pronounced divergence in estimates of origination times of groups as diverse as angiosperms, diatoms and mammals in terms of the fossil record as against molecular data point to the possibilities of protracted intervals of geological time with a cryptic diversity. If this is correct, and there are alternative explanations, then some of the mystery of adaptive radiations may be dispelled, in as much as the assembly of key features in the stem groups could be placed in a gradualistic framework of local adaptive response punctuated by intervals of opportunity.

Energy, volatile production, and climatic effects of the Chicxulub Cretaceous/Tertiary impact

A comprehensive analysis of volatiles in the Chicxulub impact strongly supports the hypothesis that impact-generated sulfate aerosols caused over a decade of global cooling, acid rain, and disruption of ocean circulation, which contributed to the mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. The crater size, meteoritic content of the K/T boundary clay, and impact models indicate that the Chicxulub crater was formed by a short period comet or an asteroid impact that released 0.7-3.4 x 10(31) ergs of energy. Impact models and experiments combined with estimates of volatiles in the projectile and target rocks predict that over 200 gigatons (Gt) each of SO2 and water vapor, and over 500 Gt of CO2, were globally distributed in the stratosphere by the impact. Additional volatiles may have been produced on a global or regional scale that formed sulfate aerosols rapidly in cooler parts of the vapor plume, causing an early, intense pulse of sulfuric acid rain. Estimates of the conversion rate of stratospheric SO2 and water vapor to sulfate aerosol, based on volcanic production of sulfate aerosols, coupled with calculations of diffusion, coagulation, and sedimentation, demonstrate that the 200 Gt stratospheric SO2 and water vapor reservoir would produce sulfate aerosols for 12 years. These sulfate aerosols caused a second pulse of acid rain that was global. Radiative transfer modeling of the aerosol clouds demonstrates (1) that if the initial rapid pulse of sulfate aerosols was global, photosynthesis may have been shut down for 6 months and (2) that for the second prolonged aerosol cloud, solar transmission dropped 80% by the end of first year and remained 50% below normal for 9 years. As a result, global average surface temperatures probably dropped between 5 degrees and 31 degrees K, suggesting that global near-freezing conditions may have been reached. Impact-generated CO2 caused less than 1 degree K greenhouse warming and therefore was insignificant compare to the sulfate cooling. The magnitude of sulfate cooling depends largely upon the rate of ocean mixing as surface waters cool, sink, and are replaced by upwelling of deep ocean water. This upwelling apparently drastically altered ocean stratification and circulation, which may explain the global collapse of the delta 13C gradient between surface and deep ocean waters at the K/T boundary.

A unified theory of impact crises and mass extinctions: quantitative tests

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing, large-scale environmental disasters, predict the impacts of objects > or = 5 km in diameter (> or = 10(7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of > or = 10 km in diameter (> or = 10(8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10(6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities, and several well-dated large impact craters, also suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of approximately 100 km diameter, smaller impacts being capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters less than approximately 60 km in diameter should not be associated with detectable global extinction pulses (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses seem to be associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high iridium, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less well-studied crisis intervals show elevated iridium, but well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of approximately 30 Myr in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the pulselike modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement between paleontologic and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

There are extinctions and extinctions: examples from the Lower Palaeozoic

The extinction events at the Cambrian-Ordovician and Ordovician-Silurian boundaries are compared and contrasted. A simple theoretical model shows that times of increased cladogenesis produce elevated rates of taxonomic pseudoextinctions, according to the recognition of paraphyletic groups. Taxonomists have traditionally placed stratigraphically early and morphologically primitive members of clades into paraphyletic groups. The Cambrian-Ordovician boundary coincided with such a period of cladogenesis. Extinctions occurred among shelf taxa: deeper-water taxa were mostly unaffected. The various explanations that have been proposed to explain Cambrian-Ordovician extinctions are evaluated. The Cambrian-Ordovician boundary event was probably similar to ‘biomere-type’ events that preceded it in the Cambrian and followed in the Ordovician. However, the rapid, but apparently staggered appearance of major new taxa at this time elevated taxonomic pseudoextinctions. In contrast, the Ordovician-Silurian extinction event terminated many major clades. An important ‘oceanic’ event (or events) profoundly affected outer- to off-shelf taxa (including plankton), some having had long and stable histories. The late Ordovician glaciation produced changes in shelf taxa, but changes in brachiopod faunal composition were spread over a long time compared with that for oceanic events. The likely role of anoxia in explaining deeper water end-Ordovician extinctions at the time of deglaciation is discussed.

Multiple factors in the origin of the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary: the role of environmental stress and Deccan Trap volcanism

A review of the scenarios for the Cretaceous/ Tertiary (K/T) boundary event is presented and a coherent hypothesis for the origin of the event is formulated. Many scientists now accept that the event was caused by a meteorite impact at Chicxulub in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our investigations show that the oceans were already stressed by the end of the Late Cretaceous as a result of the long-term drop in atmospheric CO2, the long-term drop in sea level and the frequent development of oceanic anoxia. Extinction of some marine species was already occurring several million years prior to the K/T boundary. The biota were therefore susceptible to change. The eruption of the Deccan Traps, which began at 66.2 Ma, coincides with the K/T boundary events. It erupted huge quantities of H2SO4, HCl, CO2, dust and soot into the atmosphere and led to a significant drop in sea level and marked changes in ocean temperature. The result was a major reduction in oceanic productivity and the creation of an almost dead ocean. The volcanism lasted almost 0.7 m.y. Extinction of biological species was graded and appeared to correlate with the main eruptive events. Elements such as Ir were incorporated into the volcanic ash, possibly on soot particles. This horizon accumulated under anoxic conditions in local depressions and became the marker horizon for the K/T boundary. An oxidation front penetrated this horizon leading to the redistribution of elements. The eruption of the Deccan Traps is the largest volcanic event since the Permian-Triassic event at 245 Ma. It followed a period of 36 m.y. in which the earth's magnetic field failed to reverse. Instabilities in the mantle are thought to be responsible for this eruption and therefore for the K/T event. We therefore believe that the K/T event can be explained in terms of the effects of the Deccan volcanism on an already stressed biosphere. The meteorite impact at Chicxulub took place after the onset of Deccan volcanism. It probably played a regional, rather than global, role in the K/T extinction.

Synchrony and Causal Relations Between Permian-Triassic Boundary Crises and Siberian Flood Volcanism

The Permian-Triassic boundary records the most severe mass extinctions in Earth's history. Siberian flood volcanism, the most profuse known such subaerial event, produced 2 million to 3 million cubic kilometers of volcanic ejecta in approximately 1 million years or less. Analysis of (40)Ar/(39)Ar data from two tuffs in southern China yielded a date of 250.0 +/- 0.2 million years ago for the Permian-Triassic boundary, which is comparable to the inception of main stage Siberian flood volcanism at 250.0 +/- 0.3 million years ago. Volcanogenic sulfate aerosols and the dynamic effects of the Siberian plume likely contributed to environmental extrema that led to the mass extinctions.

Diversification and extinction in the history of life

Analysis of the fossil record of microbes, algae, fungi, protists, plants, and animals shows that the diversity of both marine and continental life increased exponentially since the end of the Precambrian. This diversification was interrupted by mass extinctions, the largest of which occurred in the Early Cambrian, Late Ordovician, Late Devonian, Late Permian, Early Triassic, Late Triassic, and end-Cretaceous. Most of these extinctions were experienced by both marine and continental organisms. As for the periodicity of mass extinctions, no support was found: Seven mass extinction peaks in the last 250 million years are spaced 20 to 60 million years apart.

Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa

The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.

Shocked Quartz at the Triassic-Jurassic Boundary in Italy

Quartz grains that appear to have been shock-metamorphosed occur within three closely spaced shale beds from the uppermost Triassic ("Rhaetian") Calcare a Rhaetavicula in the Northern Apennines of Italy. The upper shale coincides with the abrupt termination of the distinctive, uppermost Triassic Rhaetavicula fauna and is overlain by the Hettangian (Lower Jurassic) Calcare Massiccio; no extinctions appear to be associated with the two lower layers, which occur 1.2 and 2.4 meters below the boundary shale. Approximately 5 to 10% of the quartz grains within these layers exhibit one or more sets of planar deformational features whose orientations cluster around the rational crystallographic planes (basal, omega, and pi) most commonly observed in shocked quartz. Textural and stratigraphic observations support an interpretation of at least three closely spaced impacts at the end of the Triassic.

Mass extinctions among tetrapods and the quality of the fossil record

The fossil record of tetrapods is very patchy because of the problems of preservation, in terrestrial sediments in particular, and because vertebrates are rarely very abundant. However, the fossil record of tetrapods has the advantages that it is easier to establish a phylogenetic taxonomy than for many invertebrate groups, and there is the potential for more detailed ecological analyses. The relative incompleteness of a fossil record may be assessed readily, and this can be used to test whether drops in overall diversity are related to mass extinctions or to gaps in our knowledge. Absolute incompleteness cannot be assessed directly, but a historical approach may offer clues to future improvements in our knowledge. One of the key problems facing palaeobiologists is paraphyly, the fact that many higher taxa in common use do not contain all of the descendants of the common ancestor. This may be overcome by cladistic analysis and the identification of monophyletic groups. The diversity of tetrapods increased from the Devonian to the Permian, remained roughly constant during the Mesozoic, and then began to increase in the late Cretaceous, and continued to do so during the Tertiary. The rapid radiation of 'modern' tetrapod groups--frogs, salamanders, lizards, snakes, turtles, crocodilians, birds and mammals--was hardly affected by the celebrated end-Cretaceous extinction event. Major mass extinctions among tetrapods took place in the early Permian, late Permian, early Triassic, late Triassic, late Cretaceous, early Oligocene and late Miocene. Many of these events appear to coincide with the major mass extinctions among marine invertebrates, but the tetrapod record is largely equivocal with regard to the theory of periodicity of mass extinctions.

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

[Natural disasters]

The attempt is made to illustrate the role played by natural disasters in the history of the earth and mankind by examples of past catastrophes. Subsequently, the earthquake of Tangshan/China in 1976 and the hypothetical scenario of a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake in a modern setting serve as a basis for discussion of the significance of natural disasters in modern times.

Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History

Slowly changing boundary conditions can sometimes cause discontinuous responses in climate models and result in relatively rapid transitions between different climate states. Such terrestrially induced abrupt climate transitions could have contributed to biotic crises in earth history. Ancillary events associated with transitions could disperse unstable climate behavior over a longer but still geologically brief interval and account for the stepwise nature of some extinction events. There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of abrupt climate change, and a comparison of paleoclimate data with the Phanerozoic extinction record indicates that climate and biotic transitions often coincide. However, more stratigraphic information is needed to precisely assess phase relations between the two types of transitions. The climate-life comparison also suggests that, if climate change is significantly contributing to biotic turnover, ecosystems may be more sensitive to forcing during the early stages of evolution from an ice-free to a glaciated state. Our analysis suggests that a terrestrially induced climate instability is a viable mechanism for causing rapid environmental change and biotic turnover in earth history, but the relation is not so strong that other sources of variance can be excluded.

Patterns of generic extinction in the fossil record

Analysis of the stratigraphic records of 19,897 fossil genera indicates that most classes and orders show largely congruent rises and falls in extinction intensity throughout the Phanerozoic. Even an ecologically homogeneous sample of reef genera shows the same basic extinction profile. The most likely explanation for the congruence is that extinction is physically rather than biologically driven and that it is dominated by the effects of geographically widespread environmental perturbations influencing most habitats. Significant departures from the congruence are uncommon but important because they indicate physiological or habitat selectivity. The similarity of the extinction records of reef organisms and the marine biota as a whole confirms that reefs and other faunas are responding to the same history of environmental stress.

A Substantial Bias in Nonparametric Tests for Periodicity in Geophysical Data

A nonparametric test that has been used to conclude that extinction rates are periodic with a period of 26 million years is shown to be substantially biased toward this conclusion, regardless of whether or not the data are periodic in origin (and, indeed, regardless of the actual period if they are in fact periodic). The test is shown to be sensitive to measurement error of a type expected with these data (early recording of extinctions due to missing fossil specimens, the "Signor-Lipps effect"), and it is shown that because of the unequal spacing in time, such models may be expected to produce statistically significant but artifactual periods of (in this case) exactly 26 million years over the span of time actually used.

New early Jurassic tetrapod assemblages constrain Triassic-Jurassic tetrapod extinction event

The discovery of the first definitively correlated earliest Jurassic (200 million years before present) tetrapod assemblage (Fundy basin, Newark Supergroup, Nova Scotia) allows reevaluation of the duration of the Triassic-Jurassic tetrapod extinction event. Present are tritheledont and mammal-like reptiles, prosauropod, theropod, and ornithischian dinosaurs, protosuchian and sphenosuchian crocodylomorphs, sphenodontids, and hybodont, semionotid, and palaeonisciform fishes. All of the families are known from Late Triassic and Jurassic strata from elsewhere; however, pollen and spore, radiometric, and geochemical correlation indicate an early Hettangian age for these assemblages. Because all "typical Triassic" forms are absent from these assemblages, most Triassic-Jurassic tetrapod extinctions occurred before this time and without the introduction of new families. As was previously suggested by studies of marine invertebrates, this pattern is consistent with a global extinction event at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. The Manicouagan impact structure of Quebec provides dates broadly compatible with the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and, following the impact theory of mass extinctions, may be implicated in the cause.