Association of geometric factors and failure load level with the distribution of cervical vs. trochanteric hip fractures

Development of a parametric finite element model of the proximal femur using statistical shape and density modelling

Skeletal fractures associated with bone mass loss are a major clinical problem and economic burden, and lead to significant morbidity and mortality in the ageing population. Clinical image-based measures of bone mass show only moderate correlative strength with bone strength. However, engineering models derived from clinical image data predict bone strength with significantly greater accuracy. Currently, image-based finite element (FE) models are time consuming to construct and are non-parametric. The goal of this study was to develop a parametric proximal femur FE model based on a statistical shape and density model (SSDM) derived from clinical image data. A small number of independent SSDM parameters described the shape and bone density distribution of a set of cadaver femurs and captured the variability affecting proximal femur FE strength predictions. Finally, a three-dimensional FE model of an 'unknown' femur was reconstructed from the SSDM with an average spatial error of 0.016 mm and an average bone density error of 0.037 g/cm(3).

In vivo discrimination of hip fracture with quantitative computed tomography: results from the prospective European Femur Fracture Study (EFFECT)

In assessing osteoporotic fractures of the proximal femur, the main objective of this in vivo case-control study was to evaluate the performance of quantitative computed tomography (QCT) and a dedicated 3D image analysis tool [Medical Image Analysis Framework--Femur option (MIAF-Femur)] in differentiating hip fracture and non-hip fracture subjects. One-hundred and seven women were recruited in the study, 47 women (mean age 81.6 years) with low-energy hip fractures and 60 female non-hip fracture control subjects (mean age 73.4 years). Bone mineral density (BMD) and geometric variables of cortical and trabecular bone in the femoral head and neck, trochanteric, and intertrochanteric regions and proximal shaft were assessed using QCT and MIAF-Femur. Areal BMD (aBMD) was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in 96 (37 hip fracture and 59 non-hip fracture subjects) of the 107 patients. Logistic regressions were computed to extract the best discriminates of hip fracture, and area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Three logistic models that discriminated the occurrence of hip fracture with QCT variables were obtained (AUC = 0.84). All three models combined one densitometric variable--a trabecular BMD (measured in the femoral head or in the trochanteric region)--and one geometric variable--a cortical thickness value (measured in the femoral neck or proximal shaft). The best discriminant using DXA variables was obtained with total femur aBMD (AUC = 0.80, p = .003). Results highlight a synergistic contribution of trabecular and cortical components in hip fracture risk and the utility of assessing QCT BMD of the femoral head for improved understanding and possible insights into prevention of hip fractures.

Anatomical variance in acetabular anteversion does not predict hip fracture patterns in the elderly: a retrospective study in 135 patients

It has been suggested that variances in the anatomy of the acetabulum determine the type of hip fracture in elderly patients. Based on this concept, an overly anteverted acetabulum would lead to impingement of the femoral neck against the posterior rim of the acetabulum, causing a femoral neck fracture, whereas with a retroverted acetabulum, external rotation of the hip would be limited by the capsular tissues attached to the trochanteric region, causing a trochanteric fracture. To test the hypothesis that acetabular version predicts hip fracture type in elderly patients, we measured acetabular version using computed tomography scans for 135 patients with hip fracture. Logistic regression analysis was used to check for an association between version angle and fracture type. No significant relationship between acetabular version and fracture type was found. Therefore, we conclude that acetabular version angle does not predict hip fracture type in the elderly, and our data do not support the impingement concept as the mechanism of hip fractures.

Evaluation of the Singh index and femur geometry in osteoporotic women

We aimed to compare the Singh index with bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), body mass index (BMI) and femur geometry in the right proximal femur of osteoporotic women, using different statistical tests. Radiographs of each patient were assessed to determine the Singh index by five observers. The observers consisted of a consultant radiologist, physical therapist and anatomists who studied the series of radiographs. They were asked to apply the Singh index by comparing the trabecular bone pattern in the proximal right femur with the reference scale published by Singh et al. [1]. This has a six point scale from grade VI to grade I. We evaluated 47 osteoporotic women in this study. The subjects’ mean age, weigth, and height were 63,21 ± 10,106, 66,72 ± 12.523, 154,94 ± 7,026 respectively. We found a significant relationship between the Singh index and BMD. The Singh index correlated significantly with hip axis length, femoral neck diamater and trochanteric width. And, BMD correlated significantly with femoral head and neck diameter, femoral neck cortex width, medial calcar femoral cortex width and femoral shaft cortex width. The evaluation of the Singh index grades in its self, there was a significant relation among them.

Structural asymmetry between the hips and its relation to experimental fracture type

Experimental analysis with paired femurs provides the opportunity to study within-person differences in fracture type and associated structural side differences. We hypothesized that different fracture types in the hips of a subject are associated with structural asymmetry. Bone mineral density (BMD) and structural measurements of paired cadaver femurs (32 females, 24 males) were performed before mechanical testing in a side-impact configuration. Fractures were classified (cervical or trochanteric) and differences in structural parameters, BMD, and failure load were evaluated between the left and right hips as well as between experimental fracture types. We observed larger dimensions (P < 0.05-0.01), thicker cortices (P < 0.05-0.001), and a smaller femoral shaft diameter (FSD) (P < 0.01) in the left hip than in the right. Seventeen pairs (30.4%) had trochanteric fractures on one side and cervical on the contralateral side. The asymmetric trochanteric fracture side had a higher head/neck diameter ratio (HD/ND) (P < 0.05) and a trend toward a lower neck-shaft angle (NSA) (P = 0.066) than its collateral cervical side in females and a lower HD and higher FSD (P < 0.05) in males. In females, asymmetric fracture cases displayed lower NSA (P < 0.001) and HD/ND (P < 0.01) than symmetric cervical ones. In males, asymmetric fracture cases showed larger dimensions than the other groups (P < 0.05-0.01). BMD increased from symmetric cervical to asymmetric and then to symmetric trochanteric cases (P < 0.05-0.01), with the experimental failure load showing a similar trend. In conclusion, intrasubject structural asymmetry is associated with asymmetric fracture types. Asymmetry should be considered when using the opposite side as control in clinical studies.

Hip fracture type: important role of parathyroid hormone (PTH) response to hypovitaminosis D

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether clinical and laboratory characteristics, including serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH) D), PTH and parameters of mineral and bone metabolism, differ by hip fracture (HF) type.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied prospectively 761 consecutively admitted older patients (mean age 82.3+8.8(SD) years; 74.9% women) with low trauma non-pathological HF. A detailed clinical examination was performed, haematologic, renal, liver and thyroid function tests, serum 25(OH)D, PTH, calcium, phosphate, magnesium, C-reactive protein (CRP) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) measured. In a subset of 294 patients' markers of bone formation (serum osteocalcin, OC; bone specific alkaline phosphatase, BAP) and bone resorption (urinary deoxypyridinoline, DPD/Cr; N-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type 1 collagen, NTx/Cr; both corrected to urinary creatinine, Cr) were also measured.

RESULTS

In the trochanteric compared to the cervical group, females were older than males and the prevalence of Parkinson's disease, mean haemoglobin and albumin levels were lower. Incidence and degree of myocardial injury (cTnl rise) and inflammatory reaction (CRP elevation) as well as length of hospital stay, need of institutionalisation or in-hospital mortality were similar in both groups. Hypovitaminosis D (25(OH)D <50 mmol/L) was present in 77.8% of patients with cervical and in 82.1% with trochanteric HF, elevated PTH (>6.8 pmol/L) in 30.2% and 41.3%, respectively. The associations between 25(OH)D, PTH, and parameters of mineral metabolism and bone turnover were site-specific. In multivariate analyses, PTH (both as a continuous or categorical variable) response to hypovitaminosis D was a strong independent predictor of HF type. Coexistence of vitamin D deficiency (25(OH) D< 25 nmol/L) and elevated PTH predicts trochanteric HF while blunted PTH response predicts cervical HF (OR=3.5; 95% CI 1.5-80; p=0.005). PTH response and phosphate status (above or below median level) correctly discriminated HF type in 73.8% of patients with vitamin D deficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

HF type is significantly associated with PTH response to hypovitaminosis D and impaired phosphate homeostasis. We detected only minor differences between two main HF types with regard to a wide range of clinical and routine laboratory variables as well as short-term outcomes.

BMD T-score discriminates trochanteric fractures from unfractured controls, whereas geometry discriminates cervical fracture cases from unfractured controls of similar BMD

The ability of bone mineral density (BMD) to discriminate cervical and trochanteric hip fractures was studied. Since the majority of fractures occur among people who are not diagnosed as having osteoporosis, we also examined this population to elucidate whether geometrical risk factors can yield additional information on hip fracture risk beside BMD. The study showed that the T-score criterion was able to discriminate fracture patients from controls in the cases of trochanteric fractures, whereas geometrical measures may discriminate cervical fracture cases in patients with T-score >-2.5.

INTRODUCTION

Low bone mineral density (BMD) is a well-established risk factor for hip fracture. However, majority of fractures occur among people not diagnosed as having osteoporosis. We studied the ability of BMD to discriminate cervical and trochanteric hip fractures. Furthermore, we examined whether geometrical measures can yield additional information on the assessment of hip fracture risk in the fracture cases in subjects with T-score >-2.5.

METHODS

Study group consisted of postmenopausal females with non-pathologic cervical (n = 39) or trochanteric (n = 18) hip fracture (mean age 74.2 years) and 40 age-matched controls. BMD was measured at femoral neck, and femoral neck axis length, femoral neck and shaft cortex thicknesses (FNC and FSC), and femoral neck-shaft angle (NSA) were measured from radiographs.

RESULTS

BMD T-score threshold of -2.5 was able to discriminate trochanteric fractures from controls (p < 0.001). Seventeen out of 18 trochanteric fractures occurred in individuals with T-score <or=-2.5. However, the T-score criterion was not able to discriminate cervical fractures. Twenty of these fractures (51.3%) occurred in individuals with BMD in osteoporotic range and 19 (48.7%) in individuals with T-score >-2.5. Within these non-osteoporotic cervical fracture patients (N = 19) and non-osteoporotic controls (N = 35), 83.3% were classified correctly based on a model including NSA and FNC (p < 0.001), area under the receiver operating characteristics curve being 0.85 for the model, while it was only 0.56 for BMD alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The study suggests that the risk of trochanteric fractures could be discriminated based on a BMD T-score <-2.5 criterion, whereas cervical fracture cases would remain under-diagnosed if solely using this criterion. Instead, geometrical risk factors are able to discriminate cervical fracture cases even among individuals with T-score >-2.5. For cervical and trochanteric fractures combined, BMD and geometric measures independently contributed to hip fracture discrimination. Our data support changing from T-score <-2.5 to a more comprehensive assessment of hip fracture etiology, in which fracture type is also taken into account. The findings need to be confirmed with a larger sample, preferably in a prospective study.

Risk factors for cervical and trochanteric hip fractures in elderly women: a population-based 10-year follow-up study

We evaluated the contribution of lifestyle-related factors, calcaneal ultrasound, and radial bone mineral density (BMD) to cervical and trochanteric hip fractures in elderly women in a 10-year population-based cohort study. The study population consisted of 1,681 women (age range 70-73 years). Seventy-two percent (n = 1,222) of them participated in the baseline measurements. Calcaneal ultrasound was assessed with a quantitative ultrasound device. BMD measurements were performed at the distal and ultradistal radius by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Forward stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to find the most predictive variables for hip fracture risk. During the follow-up, 53 of the women had hip fractures, including 32 cervical and 21 trochanteric ones. The fractured women were taller and thinner and had lower calcaneal ultrasound values than those without fractures. High body mass index (BMI) was a protective factor against any hip fractures, while low functional mobility was a risk factor of hip fractures. Specifically, high BMI protected against cervical hip fractures, while low physical activity was a significant predictor of these fractures. Similarly, high BMI protected against trochanteric fractures, whereas low functional mobility and high coffee consumption were significant predictors of trochanteric fractures. Cervical and trochanteric hip fractures seem to have different risk factors. Therefore, fracture type should be taken into account in clinical fracture risk assessment and preventative efforts, including patient counseling. However, the study is not conclusive due to the limited number of observed fractures during follow-up, and the results have to be confirmed in future studies.

Analysis of hip geometry by clinical CT for the assessment of hip fracture risk in elderly Japanese women

Two case-control studies were designed to investigate the contribution of the geometry and bone mineral density (BMD) of the proximal femur to bone strength in Japanese elderly women. We also investigated whether clinical CT is useful to assess the risk of hip fracture. Subjects in the neck fracture study included 20 Japanese women with neck fracture (age: mean+/-SD; 80.1+/-4.5 years old) and 20 age-matched control women (79.2+/-2.6 years old). Subjects in the trochanteric fracture study included 16 Japanese women with trochanteric fracture (82.6+/-5.0 years old) and 16 age-matched control women (80.8+/-3.8 years old). CT examination of the proximal femur was performed between the date of admission and the date of surgery. The CT scanners used were an Aquillion 16 (Toshiba) and Somatom 64 (Siemens); the scanning conditions including spatial resolution and scanning energy were adjusted, and the same type of reference phantom containing hydroxyapatite was used. QCT PRO software (Mindways) was used to analyze data for BMD, geometry, and biomechanical parameters. Both the neck and trochanteric fracture cases had significantly lower total and cortical BMD, a significantly smaller cortical cross-sectional area (CSA), and a larger trabecular CSA. Both had significantly thinner cortex and smaller distance to center of bone mass, and women with trochanteric fracture had a significantly smaller cortical perimeter in the cross-sectional femoral neck. Women with neck fracture had a longer hip axis length (HAL) and women with trochanteric fracture had a significantly larger neck-shaft angle (NSA). Both groups had significantly lower cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI), and only women with neck fracture had a significantly higher buckling ratio (BR) compared to their respective controls. According to the multiple logistic regression analysis, women with neck fracture had a significantly longer HAL, lower CSMI, and higher BR, and women with trochanteric fracture had a significantly smaller cortical CSA of the femoral neck. We conclude that clinical CT may be useful for the assessment of the risk of neck and trochanteric fracture.

Effect of hip protectors, falling angle and body mass index on pressure distribution over the hip during simulated falls

BACKGROUND

We examined how a soft shell hip protector affects the magnitude and distribution of force to the hip during simulated falls, and how the protective effect depends on the fall direction and the amount of soft tissue padding over the hip.

METHODS

Fourteen young women with either high or low body mass index participated in a "pelvis release experiment" that simulated falls resulting in either lateral, anterolateral or posterolateral impact to the pelvis with/without a soft shell hip protector. Outcome variables were the magnitude and location of peak pressure (d, theta) with respect to the greater trochanter, total impact force, and percent force applied to four defined hip regions.

FINDINGS

The soft shell hip protector reduced peak pressure by 70%. The effect was two times greater in low than high body mass index individuals. The protector shunted the peak pressure distally along the shaft of the femur (d=52 mm (SD 22), theta=-21 degrees (SD 49) in the unpadded trials versus d=81 mm (SD 23), theta=-10 degrees (SD 35) in the padded trials). Peak force averaged 12% greater in posterolateral and 17% lower in anterolateral than lateral falls.

INTERPRETATION

Our results indicate that the hip protector we tested had a much stronger protective benefit for low than high body mass index individuals. Next generation protectors might be developed for improved shunting of pressure away from the femur, improved protection during posterolateral falls, and greater force attenuation for low body mass index individuals.

Hip protectors: recommendations for biomechanical testing--an international consensus statement (part I)

INTRODUCTION

Hip protectors represent a promising strategy for preventing fall-related hip fractures. However, clinical trials have yielded conflicting results due, in part, to lack of agreement on techniques for measuring and optimizing the biomechanical performance of hip protectors as a prerequisite to clinical trials.

METHODS

In November 2007, the International Hip Protector Research Group met in Copenhagen to address barriers to the clinical effectiveness of hip protectors. This paper represents an evidence-based consensus statement from the group on recommended methods for evaluating the biomechanical performance of hip protectors.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The primary outcome of testing should be the percent reduction (compared with the unpadded condition) in peak value of the axial compressive force applied to the femoral neck during a simulated fall on the greater trochanter. To provide reasonable results, the test system should accurately simulate the pelvic anatomy, and the impact velocity (3.4 m/s), pelvic stiffness (acceptable range: 39-55 kN/m), and effective mass of the body (acceptable range: 22-33 kg) during impact. Given the current lack of clear evidence regarding the clinical efficacy of specific hip protectors, the primary value of biomechanical testing at present is to compare the protective value of different products, as opposed to rejecting or accepting specific devices for market use.

Femoral bone strength and its relation to cortical and trabecular changes after treatment with PTH, alendronate, and their combination as assessed by finite element analysis of quantitative CT scans

The "PTH and Alendronate" or "PaTH" study compared the effects of PTH(1-84) and/or alendronate (ALN) in 238 postmenopausal, osteoporotic women. We performed finite element analysis on the QCT scans of 162 of these subjects to provide insight into femoral strength changes associated with these treatments and the relative roles of changes in the cortical and trabecular compartments on such strength changes. Patients were assigned to either PTH, ALN, or their combination (CMB) in year 1 and were switched to either ALN or placebo (PLB) treatment in year 2: PTH-PLB, PTH-ALN, CMB-ALN, and ALN-ALN (year 1-year 2) treatments. Femoral strength was simulated for a sideways fall using nonlinear finite element analysis of the quantitative CT exams. At year 1, the strength change from baseline was statistically significant for PTH (mean, 2.08%) and ALN (3.60%), and at year 2, significant changes were seen for the PTH-ALN (7.74%), CMB-ALN (4.18%), and ALN-ALN (4.83%) treatment groups but not for PTH-PLB (1.17%). Strength increases were primarily caused by changes in the trabecular density regardless of treatment group, but changes in cortical density and mass also played a significant role, the degree of which depended on treatment. For PTH treatment at year 1 and for ALN-ALN treatment at year 2, there were significant negative and positive strength effects, respectively, associated with a change in external bone geometry. Average changes in strength per treatment group were somewhat consistent with average changes in total hip areal BMD as measured by DXA, except for the PTH group at year 1. The relation between change in femoral strength and change in areal BMD was weak (r(2) = 0.14, pooled, year 2). We conclude that femoral strength changes with these various treatments were dominated by trabecular changes, and although changes in the cortical bone and overall bone geometry did contribute to femoral strength changes, the extent of these latter effects depended on the type of treatment.

Femoral geometry as a risk factor for osteoporotic hip fracture in men and women

Osteoporotic hip fracture is associated with high mortality and morbidity and often results in a loss of mobility and independence. Osteoporosis is diagnosed by measuring Bone Mineral Density (BMD), a measure of the amount of mineral in a bone. Although BMD continues to serve well it does not fully account for bone strength and only partially accounts for the risk of hip fracture. The shape and structure of the proximal femur also help to determine how forces act in the hip in a fall and their measurement can aid the prediction of hip fracture. This review examines the link between simple geometrical measures of the proximal femur and hip fracture, or bone strength. It will explore how they relate to each other and to anthropometric factors such as sex, height, weight and age. Limitations in these measures will be identified and new methods of analysis reviewed that encompass many different aspects of the shape of the femur. These new methods show great promise for improving the prediction of fracture risk in the future.

The Impact of Proximal Femur Geometry on Fracture Type — A Comparison between Cervical and Trochanteric Fractures with Two Parameters

Introduction:

Only a few studies have tested the ability of proximal femur geometry parameters to discriminate between cervical hip fractures and those of the trochanter. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the geometrical differences between these two fracture types by measuring the neck shaft angle (NSA) and the femoral neck axis length (FNAL). We also compared the distributions of these parameters and the distributions of fracture type by gender.

Material and Methods:

A retrospective analysis was made in a population-based material of 428 hip fractures collected during a two-year period from 1999 to 2000 (323 women and 105 men aged 65 years or older). NSA and FNAL were manually measured from pelvic radiographs.

Results:

No significant differences in NSA or FNAL were found between cervical and trochanteric hip fractures in women or in men. Men had significantly higher NSA and FNAL than women. Age was not related to these geometrical parameters. The distributions by fracture type were similar in both genders.

Conclusions:

The different pathogenesis of cervical and trochanteric hip fractures cannot be explained by NSA or FNAL. A standardized measurement setup is needed when evaluating the role of hip geometry in fracture patients.

The biomechanics of ipsilateral intertrochanteric and femoral shaft fractures: a comparison of 5 fracture fixation techniques

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present study was to examine biomechanically 5 different construct combinations for fixation of ipsilateral intertrochanteric and femoral shaft fractures.

METHODS

Twenty-five fresh-frozen adult human femora (age range = 58-91 years, average age = 75.4 years) were tested in physiological bending and in torsion to characterize initial bending and torsional stiffness and stiffness following fixation of combined intertrochanteric and femoral shaft fractures. Five fracture fixation device constructs were assessed-construct A: long dynamic hip screw (long DHS); construct B: reconstruction nail; construct C: DHS plus low-contact dynamic compression plate; construct D: DHS plus retrograde intramedullary nail; and construct E: long intramedullary hip screw. Axial stiffness, torsional stiffness, and axial load-to-failure were the main measurements recorded.

RESULTS

There were no differences between constructs in terms of axial stiffness (P = 0.41), external rotation stiffness (P = 0.13), and axial load-to-failure (P = 0.16). However, there was a borderline statistically significant difference in internal rotation stiffness between the constructs (P = 0.048). Specifically, construct C was significantly stiffer than construct E (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

All constructs showed no statistical differences when compared with one another, with the exception of construct E, which provided the least torsional stiffness. However, the current in vitro model did not simulate fracture healing or support offered by soft tissues, both of which would affect the stiffness and load-to-failure levels reached.

Experimental hip fracture load can be predicted from plain radiography by combined analysis of trabecular bone structure and bone geometry

Computerized analysis of the trabecular structure was used to test whether femur failure load can be estimated from radiographs. The study showed that combined analysis of trabecular bone structure and geometry predicts in vitro failure load with similar accuracy as DXA.

INTRODUCTION

Since conventional radiography is widely available with low imaging cost, it is of considerable interest to discover how well bone mechanical competence can be determined using this technology. We tested the hypothesis that the mechanical strength of the femur can be estimated by the combined analysis of the bone trabecular structure and geometry.

METHODS

The sample consisted of 62 cadaver femurs (34 females, 28 males). After radiography and DXA, femora were mechanically tested in side impact configuration. Fracture patterns were classified as being cervical or trochanteric. Computerized image analysis was applied to obtain structure-related trabecular parameters (trabecular bone area, Euler number, homogeneity index, and trabecular main orientation), and set of geometrical variables (neck-shaft angle, medial calcar and femoral shaft cortex thicknesses, and femoral neck axis length). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify the variables that best explain variation in BMD and failure load between subjects.

RESULTS

In cervical fracture cases, trabecular bone area and femoral neck axis length explained 64% of the variability in failure loads, while femoral neck BMD also explained 64%. In trochanteric fracture cases, Euler number and femoral cortex thickness explained 66% of the variability in failure load, while trochanteric BMD explained 72%.

CONCLUSIONS

Structural parameters of trabecular bone and bone geometry predict in vitro failure loads of the proximal femur with similar accuracy as DXA, when using appropriate image analysis technology.

Femoral neck BMD is a strong predictor of hip fracture susceptibility in elderly men and women because it detects cortical bone instability: the Rotterdam Study

We studied HSA measurements in relation to hip fracture risk in 4,806 individuals (2,740 women). Hip fractures (n = 147) occurred at the same absolute levels of bone instability in both sexes. Cortical instability (propensity of thinner cortices in wide diameters to buckle) explains why hip fracture risk at different BMD levels is the same across sexes.

INTRODUCTION

Despite the sexual dimorphism of bone, hip fracture risk is very similar in men and women at the same absolute BMD. We aimed to elucidate the main structural properties of bone that underlie the measured BMD and that ultimately determines the risk of hip fracture in elderly men and women.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study is part of the Rotterdam Study (a large prospective population-based cohort) and included 147 incident hip fracture cases in 4,806 participants with DXA-derived hip structural analysis (mean follow-up, 8.6 yr). Indices compared in relation to fracture included neck width, cortical thickness, section modulus (an index of bending strength), and buckling ratio (an index of cortical bone instability). We used a mathematical model to calculate the hip fracture distribution by femoral neck BMD, BMC, bone area, and hip structure analysis (HSA) parameters (cortical thickness, section modulus narrow neck width, and buckling ratio) and compared it with prospective data from the Rotterdam Study.

RESULTS

In the prospective data, hip fracture cases in both sexes had lower BMD, thinner cortices, greater bone width, lower strength, and higher instability at baseline. In fractured individuals, men had an average BMD that was 0.09 g/cm(2) higher than women (p < 0.00001), whereas no significant difference in buckling ratios was seen. Modeled fracture distribution by BMD and buckling ratio levels were in concordance to the prospective data and showed that hip fractures seem to occur at the same absolute levels of bone instability (buckling ratio) in both men and women. No significant differences were observed between the areas under the ROC curves of BMD (0.8146 in women and 0.8048 in men) and the buckling ratio (0.8161 in women and 0.7759 in men).

CONCLUSIONS

The buckling ratio (an index of bone instability) portrays in both sexes the critical balance between cortical thickness and bone width. Our findings suggest that extreme thinning of cortices in expanded bones plays a key role on local susceptibility to fracture. Even though the buckling ratio does not offer additional predictive value, these findings improve our understanding of why low BMD is a good predictor of fragility fractures.