The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies

Suicidal Ideation Among Individuals Who Have Purchased Firearms During COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

Given the increase in firearm purchases during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study seeks to determine the extent to which COVID-19 firearm purchasers differ in terms of suicide risk from nonfirearm owners and firearm owners who did not make a purchase during COVID-19.

METHODS

Participants (N=3,500) were recruited through Qualtrics Panels to participate in an online survey examining methods for self-protection. ANCOVAs were utilized to assess suicidal ideation. Multivariate ANCOVAs were used to examine firearm storage practices and storage changes during COVID-19. Data were collected in late June and early July 2020, and analyses were conducted in July 2020.

RESULTS

Individuals who purchased a firearm during COVID-19 more frequently reported lifetime, past-year, and past-month suicidal ideation than nonfirearm owners and firearm owners who did not make a purchase during COVID-19. COVID-19 purchasers with lifetime ideation were less likely to hide loaded firearms in a closet than those without lifetime ideation. COVID-19 purchasers with past-year or past-month ideation were more likely to use locking devices than COVID-19 purchasers without past-month ideation.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to firearm owners more generally, COVID-19 firearm purchasers appear far more likely to have experienced suicidal ideation and appear less likely to use certain unsafe firearm storage methods but also report a greater number of storage changes during COVID-19 that made firearms less secure. Future research should seek to further understand those who purchased a firearm during COVID-19 and determine ways to increase secure storage among firearm owners.

The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented by many countries to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal agent of COVID-19. A resurgence in COVID-19 cases has been reported in some countries that lifted some of these NPIs. We aimed to understand the association of introducing and lifting NPIs with the level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, as measured by the time-varying reproduction number (R), from a broad perspective across 131 countries.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we linked data on daily country-level estimates of R from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK) with data on country-specific policies on NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, available between Jan 1 and July 20, 2020. We defined a phase as a time period when all NPIs remained the same, and we divided the timeline of each country into individual phases based on the status of NPIs. We calculated the R ratio as the ratio between the daily R of each phase and the R from the last day of the previous phase (ie, before the NPI status changed) as a measure of the association between NPI status and transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We then modelled the R ratio using a log-linear regression with introduction and relaxation of each NPI as independent variables for each day of the first 28 days after the change in the corresponding NPI. In an ad-hoc analysis, we estimated the effect of reintroducing multiple NPIs with the greatest effects, and in the observed sequence, to tackle the possible resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

FINDINGS

790 phases from 131 countries were included in the analysis. A decreasing trend over time in the R ratio was found following the introduction of school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the reduction in R ranged from 3% to 24% on day 28 following the introduction compared with the last day before introduction, although the reduction was significant only for public events ban (R ratio 0·76, 95% CI 0·58-1·00); for all other NPIs, the upper bound of the 95% CI was above 1. An increasing trend over time in the R ratio was found following the relaxation of school closure, bans on public events, bans on public gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the increase in R ranged from 11% to 25% on day 28 following the relaxation compared with the last day before relaxation, although the increase was significant only for school reopening (R ratio 1·24, 95% CI 1·00-1·52) and lifting bans on public gatherings of more than ten people (1·25, 1·03-1·51); for all other NPIs, the lower bound of the 95% CI was below 1. It took a median of 8 days (IQR 6-9) following the introduction of an NPI to observe 60% of the maximum reduction in R and even longer (17 days [14-20]) following relaxation to observe 60% of the maximum increase in R. In response to a possible resurgence of COVID-19, a control strategy of banning public events and public gatherings of more than ten people was estimated to reduce R, with an R ratio of 0·71 (95% CI 0·55-0·93) on day 28, decreasing to 0·62 (0·47-0·82) on day 28 if measures to close workplaces were added, 0·58 (0·41-0·81) if measures to close workplaces and internal movement restrictions were added, and 0·48 (0·32-0·71) if measures to close workplaces, internal movement restrictions, and requirements to stay at home were added.

INTERPRETATION

Individual NPIs, including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but the effect of introducing and lifting these NPIs is delayed by 1-3 weeks, with this delay being longer when lifting NPIs. These findings provide additional evidence that can inform policy-maker decisions on the timing of introducing and lifting different NPIs, although R should be interpreted in the context of its known limitations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund and Data-Driven Innovation initiative.

The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented by many countries to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal agent of COVID-19. A resurgence in COVID-19 cases has been reported in some countries that lifted some of these NPIs. We aimed to understand the association of introducing and lifting NPIs with the level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, as measured by the time-varying reproduction number (R), from a broad perspective across 131 countries.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we linked data on daily country-level estimates of R from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK) with data on country-specific policies on NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, available between Jan 1 and July 20, 2020. We defined a phase as a time period when all NPIs remained the same, and we divided the timeline of each country into individual phases based on the status of NPIs. We calculated the R ratio as the ratio between the daily R of each phase and the R from the last day of the previous phase (ie, before the NPI status changed) as a measure of the association between NPI status and transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We then modelled the R ratio using a log-linear regression with introduction and relaxation of each NPI as independent variables for each day of the first 28 days after the change in the corresponding NPI. In an ad-hoc analysis, we estimated the effect of reintroducing multiple NPIs with the greatest effects, and in the observed sequence, to tackle the possible resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

FINDINGS

790 phases from 131 countries were included in the analysis. A decreasing trend over time in the R ratio was found following the introduction of school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the reduction in R ranged from 3% to 24% on day 28 following the introduction compared with the last day before introduction, although the reduction was significant only for public events ban (R ratio 0·76, 95% CI 0·58-1·00); for all other NPIs, the upper bound of the 95% CI was above 1. An increasing trend over time in the R ratio was found following the relaxation of school closure, bans on public events, bans on public gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the increase in R ranged from 11% to 25% on day 28 following the relaxation compared with the last day before relaxation, although the increase was significant only for school reopening (R ratio 1·24, 95% CI 1·00-1·52) and lifting bans on public gatherings of more than ten people (1·25, 1·03-1·51); for all other NPIs, the lower bound of the 95% CI was below 1. It took a median of 8 days (IQR 6-9) following the introduction of an NPI to observe 60% of the maximum reduction in R and even longer (17 days [14-20]) following relaxation to observe 60% of the maximum increase in R. In response to a possible resurgence of COVID-19, a control strategy of banning public events and public gatherings of more than ten people was estimated to reduce R, with an R ratio of 0·71 (95% CI 0·55-0·93) on day 28, decreasing to 0·62 (0·47-0·82) on day 28 if measures to close workplaces were added, 0·58 (0·41-0·81) if measures to close workplaces and internal movement restrictions were added, and 0·48 (0·32-0·71) if measures to close workplaces, internal movement restrictions, and requirements to stay at home were added.

INTERPRETATION

Individual NPIs, including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but the effect of introducing and lifting these NPIs is delayed by 1-3 weeks, with this delay being longer when lifting NPIs. These findings provide additional evidence that can inform policy-maker decisions on the timing of introducing and lifting different NPIs, although R should be interpreted in the context of its known limitations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund and Data-Driven Innovation initiative.

Trampolines injuries are bouncing back

Aims

This observational study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic upon the paediatric trauma burden of a district general hospital. We aim to compare the nature and volume of the paediatric trauma during the first 2020 UK lockdown period with the same period in 2019.

Methods

Prospective data was collected from 23 March 2020 to 14 June 2020 and compared with retrospective data collected from 23 March 2019 to 14 June 2019. Patient demographics, mechanism of injury, nature of the injury, and details of any surgery were tabulated and statistically analyzed using the independent-samples t-test for normally distributed data and the Mann-Whitney-U test for non-parametric data. Additionally, patients were contacted by telephone to further explore the mechanism of injury where required, to gain some qualitative insight into the risk factors for injury.

Results

The 2020 lockdown resulted in 30% fewer paediatric trauma presentations (441 vs 306), but no significant change in the number of patients requiring surgery (47 vs 51; p = 0.686). Trampolining injuries increased in absolute numbers by 168% (p < 0.001), almost four times more common when considered as percentage of all injuries observed in 2020 vs 2019. There was a decrease in high energy trauma from road traffic accidents and falls from height (21.5% decrease, p < 0.001). Despite a shift towards more conservative treatment options, trampolining injuries continued to require surgery in similar proportions (19.4 vs 20%; p = 0.708). Qualitative investigation revealed that the most common risk factor for trampolining injury was concurrent usage, especially with an older child.

Conclusion

COVID-19 lockdown has resulted in a decrease in paediatric orthopaedic presentations and high energy trauma. However, due to a marked increase in home trampolining injuries, and their unchanged requirement for surgery, there has been no change in the requirement for surgery during the lockdown period. As home exercise becomes more prevalent, a duty of public health falls upon clinicians to advise parents against trampoline usage.

Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):86–92.

Early impact of school closure and social distancing for COVID-19 on the number of inpatients with childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections in Japan

Many countries have implemented school closures as part of social distancing measures intended to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to assess the early impact of nationwide school closure (March-May 2020) and social distancing for COVID-19 on the number of inpatients with major childhood infectious diseases in Japan. Using data from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination system in Japan, we identified patients aged 15 years or younger with admissions for a diagnosis of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), influenza, gastrointestinal infection (GII), appendicitis, urinary tract infection (UTI), or skin and soft tissue infection (SSTI) between July 2018 and June 2020. Changes in the trend of the weekly number of inpatients between the two periods were assessed using interrupted time-series analysis. A total of 75,053 patients in 210 hospitals were included. The overall weekly number of inpatients was decreased by 52.5%, 77.4%, and by 83.4% in the last week of March, April, and May 2020, respectively, when compared on a year-on-year basis. The estimated impact was a reduction of 581 (standard error 42.9) inpatients per week in the post-school-closure period (p < 0.001). The main part of the reduction was for pre-school children. Remarkable decreases in the number of inpatients with URI, LRTI, and GII were observed, while there were relatively mild changes in the other groups.Conclusion: We confirmed a marked reduction in the number of inpatients with childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections in the post-school-closure period. What is Known: • Most countries have implemented social distancing measures to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). • A large decrease in pediatric emergency visits has been reported from several countries after the social distancing. What is New: • Based on administrative claims data, a marked reduction in the number of inpatients for childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections was found in the post-school-closure period in Japan. • The magnitude of the reduction was different between the disease groups.

SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in students and teachers: seroprevalence follow-up study in a German secondary school in November and December 2020

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the number of undetected SARS-CoV-2 infections in educational settings.

DESIGN

Serial SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study before and during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

SETTING

Secondary school in Dresden, Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

Grade 8-12 students and their teachers were invited to participate in serial blood sampling and SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody assessment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in study population.

RESULTS

247 students and 55 teachers participated in the initial study visit and 197 students and 40 teachers completed follow-up. Seroprevalence increased from 1.7% (0.3-3.3) to 6.8% (3.8-10.1) during the study period mirroring the increase of officially reported SARS-CoV-2 infections during this time. The ratio of undetected to detected SARS-CoV-2 infections ranged from 0.25 to 0.33.

CONCLUSIONS

We could not find evidence of relevant silent, asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in schools neither in a low prevalence setting nor during the second wave of the pandemic, making it unlikely that educational settings play a crucial role in driving the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

DRKS00022455.

Impacts of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on the daily life of forestry students

University life has changed profoundly due to social distancing measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Over the longer term, the coronavirus crisis may affect the mental health of undergraduate students who are required to cope with remote options and forgo the usual campus life. The aim of this study is thus to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on undergraduate students' mental health and daily life in order to assist policymakers improve pandemic control plans and help educators and healthcare experts provide support to affected undergraduates. Results are based on quantitative data collected via online questionnaires which were completed by 181 Greek undergraduate forestry students. The analysis indicated that the students were highly affected by the closure of universities and the transition to distance learning. Moreover, they experienced negative emotions, mostly concern and anger, during the lockdown. T-test showed that female respondents experienced strong negative emotions like fear, panic and despair to a higher degree than male students who were more optimistic about the pandemic. Surprisingly, the students did not exercise outdoors every day even though it was allowed during the 42-day quarantine. In addition, they used mostly television and scientific articles to obtain information about COVID-19. The results presented in this study offer insights into university students' experience with the pandemic and reveal their reaction to remote education. It is recommended to monitor university students' mental health frequently and to provide them with psychological counselling and practical advice on how to manage anxiety and fear. Finally, education and training on remote learning could help reduce students' anxiety over online classes and exams.

Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

In response to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the impact of COVID-19, national and subnational governments implemented a variety of measures in order to control the spread of the virus and the associated disease. While these measures were imposed with the intention of controlling the pandemic, they were also associated with severe psychosocial, societal, and economic implications on a societal level. One setting affected heavily by these measures is the school setting. By mid-April 2020, 192 countries had closed schools, affecting more than 90% of the world's student population. In consideration of the adverse consequences of school closures, many countries around the world reopened their schools in the months after the initial closures. To safely reopen schools and keep them open, governments implemented a broad range of measures. The evidence with regards to these measures, however, is heterogeneous, with a multitude of study designs, populations, settings, interventions and outcomes being assessed. To make sense of this heterogeneity, we conducted a rapid scoping review (8 October to 5 November 2020). This rapid scoping review is intended to serve as a precursor to a systematic review of effectiveness, which will inform guidelines issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). This review is reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist and was registered with the Open Science Framework.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and comprehensively map the evidence assessing the impacts of measures implemented in the school setting to reopen schools, or keep schools open, or both, during the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic, with particular focus on the types of measures implemented in different school settings, the outcomes used to measure their impacts and the study types used to assess these.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, MEDLINE, Embase, the CDC COVID-19 Research Articles Downloadable Database for preprints, and the WHO COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease on 8 October 2020.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies that assessed the impact of measures implemented in the school setting. Eligible populations were populations at risk of becoming infected with SARS-CoV-2, or developing COVID-19 disease, or both, and included people both directly and indirectly impacted by interventions, including students, teachers, other school staff, and contacts of these groups, as well as the broader community. We considered all types of empirical studies, which quantitatively assessed impact including epidemiological studies, modelling studies, mixed-methods studies, and diagnostic studies that assessed the impact of relevant interventions beyond diagnostic test accuracy. Broad outcome categories of interest included infectious disease transmission-related outcomes, other harmful or beneficial health-related outcomes, and societal, economic, and ecological implications.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We extracted data from included studies in a standardized manner, and mapped them to categories within our a priori logic model where possible. Where not possible, we inductively developed new categories. In line with standard expectations for scoping reviews, the review provides an overview of the existing evidence regardless of methodological quality or risk of bias, and was not designed to synthesize effectiveness data, assess risk of bias, or characterize strength of evidence (GRADE).

MAIN RESULTS

We included 42 studies that assessed measures implemented in the school setting. The majority of studies used mathematical modelling designs (n = 31), while nine studies used observational designs, and two studies used experimental or quasi-experimental designs. Studies conducted in real-world contexts or using real data focused on the WHO European region (EUR; n = 20), the WHO region of the Americas (AMR; n = 13), the West Pacific region (WPR; n = 6), and the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR; n = 1). One study conducted a global assessment and one did not report on data from, or that were applicable to, a specific country. Three broad intervention categories emerged from the included studies: organizational measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (n = 36), structural/environmental measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (n = 11), and surveillance and response measures to detect SARS-CoV-2 infections (n = 19). Most studies assessed SARS-CoV-2 transmission-related outcomes (n = 29), while others assessed healthcare utilization (n = 8), other health outcomes (n = 3), and societal, economic, and ecological outcomes (n = 5). Studies assessed both harmful and beneficial outcomes across all outcome categories.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We identified a heterogeneous and complex evidence base of measures implemented in the school setting. This review is an important first step in understanding the available evidence and will inform the development of rapid reviews on this topic.

Thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness explain the associations of COVID-19 social and economic consequences to suicide risk

OBJECTIVE

The social and economic consequences of COVID-19 and related public health interventions aimed at slowing the spread of the virus have been proposed to increase suicide risk. However, no research has examined these relations. This study examined the relations of two COVID-19 consequences (i.e., stay-at-home orders and job loss) to suicide risk through thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and loneliness.

METHOD

Online data from a nationwide community sample of 500 adults (mean age = 40) from 45 states were collected between March 27 and April 5, 2020. Participants completed measures assessing thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, loneliness, and suicide risk, as well as whether they (a) were currently under a stay-at-home order and (b) had experienced a recent job loss due to the pandemic.

RESULTS

Results revealed a significant indirect relation of stay-at-home order status to suicide risk through thwarted belongingness. Further, whereas recent job loss was significantly correlated with suicide risk, neither the direct relation of job loss to suicide risk (when accounting for their shared relations to perceived burdensomeness) nor the indirect relation through perceived burdensomeness was significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Results highlight the potential benefits of interventions targeting thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness to offset suicide risk during this pandemic.

The Role of Administrative and Secondary Data in Estimating the Costs and Effects of School and Workplace Closures due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

As a part of mitigation strategies during a COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO currently recommends social distancing measures through school closures (SC) and work closures (WC) to control the infection spread and reduce the illness attack rate. Focusing on the use of administrative and secondary data, this study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of alternative strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia, by comparing the baseline (no intervention) with SC + WC for 2, 4, and 8 weeks as respective scenarios. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model accounting for the spread of infection during the latent period was applied by taking into account a 1-year time horizon. To estimate the total pandemic cost of all scenarios, we took into account the cost of healthcare, SC, and productivity loss due to WC and illness. Next to costs, averted deaths were considered as the effect measure. In comparison with the baseline, the result showed that total savings in scenarios of SC + WC for 2, 4, and 8 weeks would be approximately $24 billion, $25 billion, and $34 billion, respectively. In addition, increasing the duration of SC and WC would increase the number of averted deaths. Scenarios of SC + WC for 2, 4, and 8 weeks would result in approximately 159,075, 173,963, and 250,842 averted deaths, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the wage per day, infectious period, basic reproduction number, incubation period, and case fatality rate were found to be the most influential parameters affecting the savings and number of averted deaths. It can be concluded that all the mitigation scenarios were considered to be cost-saving, and increasing the duration of SC and WC would increase both the savings and the number of averted deaths.

The impact of social distancing on COVID19 spread: State of Georgia case study

As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult decisions about when and how to transition to a "new normal." The goal of this study is to project the number of COVID19 infections and resulting severe outcomes, and the need for hospital capacity under social distancing, particularly, shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine for the State of Georgia. We developed an agent-based simulation model to project the infection spread. The model utilizes COVID19-specific parameters and data from Georgia on population interactions and demographics. The simulation study covered a seven and a half-month period, testing different social distancing scenarios, including baselines (no-intervention or school closure only) and combinations of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with different timelines and compliance levels. The following outcomes are compared at the state and community levels: the number and percentage of cumulative and daily new symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths; COVID19-related demand for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. The results suggest that shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine reduced peak infections from approximately 180K under no intervention and 113K under school closure, respectively, to below 53K, and delayed the peak from April to July or later. Increasing shelter-in-place duration from four to five weeks yielded 2-9% and 3-11% decrease in cumulative infection and deaths, respectively. Regardless of the shelter-in-place duration, increasing voluntary quarantine compliance decreased daily new infections from almost 53K to 25K, and decreased cumulative infections by about 50%. The cumulative number of deaths ranged from 6,660 to 19,430 under different scenarios. Peak infection date varied across scenarios and counties; on average, increasing shelter-in-place duration delayed the peak day by 6 days. Overall, shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine substantially reduced COVID19 infections, healthcare resource needs, and severe outcomes.

Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 outbreak of unknown source in a Ghanaian senior high school

BACKGROUND

Influenza is an acute viral respiratory tract infection caused by influenza virus and transmitted from person to person. Though usually seasonal in temperate climates, influenza occurs throughout the year in the tropics with outbreaks occurring at irregular intervals. On February 6, 2018, a number of students from a Senior High School (SHS) in Accra reported to a district hospital with cough, fever and other respiratory symptoms. An influenza-like illness (ILI) outbreak was suspected. We investigated to determine the magnitude and source of the outbreak and implement control and preventive measures.

METHODS

We interviewed health workers, staff and students of the school as well as case-patients and reviewed health records to collect data on demographic characteristics, signs and symptoms, date of illness onset and outcome. We defined ILI case as "any person in the SHS with fever (measured axillary temperature of ≥ 37.5 °C or history of fever) and cough with or without sore throat or runny nose from January 21 to February 26, 2018". We conducted active case search to identify more cases and took oropharyngeal samples for laboratory testing. We performed descriptive and inferential analysis by calculating attack rate ratios (ARR) and their exact 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Of the 3160 students, 104 case-patients were recorded from January 25, 2018 to February 13, 2018 (overall attack rate of 3.3%). Mean age of case-patients was 16.1 (±2.3) years with males constituting 71.2% (74/104). Sex specific attack rates were 5.6% (74/1331) and 1.6% (30/1829) for males and females respectively. Compared to females, males were 3.4 times as likely to be ill [ARR =3.4, 95%CI = (2.23-5.15)]. Nine oropharyngeal samples from 17 suspected case-patients tested positive for influenza A (H1N1)pdm09.

CONCLUSION

Outbreak of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 occurred in a SHS in Accra from January to February, 2018. Even though source of the outbreak could not be determined, prompt case management and health education on hand and personal hygiene as non-pharmacological factors probably contributed to the outbreak control. The outbreak ended with a scheduled mid-term break. This underscores the need for more evidence on the effect of school closure in influenza outbreak control.

Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in Germany: Early assessment and possible scenarios

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020. In this work, mathematical models are used to reproduce data of the early evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, taking into account the effect of actual and hypothetical non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended to account for undetected infections, stages of infection, and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5. Data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases, and reduced contact to risk groups.

Translating Scientific Knowledge to Government Decision Makers Has Crucial Importance in the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic

In times of epidemics and humanitarian crises, it is essential to translate scientific findings into digestible information for government policy makers who have a short time to make critical decisions. To predict how far and fast the disease would spread across Hungary and to support the epidemiological decision-making process, a multidisciplinary research team performed a large amount of scientific data analysis and mathematical and socioeconomic modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hungary, including modeling the medical resources and capacities, the regional differences, gross domestic product loss, the impact of closing and reopening elementary schools, and the optimal nationwide screening strategy for various virus-spreading scenarios and R metrics. KETLAK prepared 2 extensive reports on the problems identified and suggested solutions, and presented these directly to the National Epidemiological Policy-Making Body. The findings provided crucial data for the government to address critical measures regarding health care capacity, decide on restriction maintenance, change the actual testing strategy, and take regional economic, social, and health differences into account. Hungary managed the first part of the COVID-19 pandemic with low mortality rate. In times of epidemics, the formation of multidisciplinary research groups is essential for policy makers. The establishment, research activity, and participation in decision-making of these groups, such as KETLAK, can serve as a model for other countries, researchers, and policy makers not only in managing the challenges of COVID-19, but in future pandemics as well.

Social approaches to COVID-19 pandemic response: effectiveness and practicality in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

the threat of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to health systems and communities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is enormous. Social approaches such as distancing measures are essential components of the public health response to respiratory-related infectious disease outbreaks. Due to socio-economic and broader peculiarities of SSA countries, social approaches that were effective elsewhere may have limited practicality in these contexts, and if practical; may yield different or even adverse results. We highlighted the effectiveness of these social approaches and their practicality in SSA.

METHODS

we conducted a comprehensive literature search through multiple databases, to identify articles relevant to social distancing. Findings were thematically summarized.

RESULTS

our review found emerging and varying empirical evidence on the effectiveness of social approaches in the control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic; thus, limiting its applicability in SSA contexts. Nonetheless, our review demonstrates that the effectiveness and practicality of social approaches in SSA contexts will depend on available resources; timing, duration, and intensity of the intervention; and compliance. Weak political coordination, anti-science sentiments, distrust of political leaders and limited implementation of legal frameworks can also affect practicality.

CONCLUSION

to overcome these challenges, tailoring and adaptation of these measures to different but unique contexts for maximum effectiveness, and investment in social insurance mechanisms, are vital.

Where Have All the Fractures Gone? The Epidemiology of Pediatric Fractures During the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, public health measures to encourage social distancing have been implemented, including cancellation of school and organized sports. A resulting change in pediatric fracture epidemiology is expected. This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fracture incidence and characteristics.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study comparing acute fractures presenting to a single level I pediatric trauma hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic with fractures during a prepandemic period at the same institution. The "pandemic" cohort was gathered from March 15 to April 15, 2020 and compared with a "prepandemic" cohort from the same time window in 2018 and 2019.

RESULTS

In total, 1745 patients presenting with acute fractures were included. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of fractures presenting to our practice during the pandemic (22.5±9.1/d vs. 9.6±5.1/d, P<0.001). The presenting age for all fractures decreased during the pandemic (7.5±4.3 vs. 9.4±4.4 y, P<0.001) because of decreased fracture burden among adolescents. There were also a decrease in the number of fractures requiring surgery (2.2±1.8/d vs. 0.8±0.8/d, P<0.001). During the pandemic, there was an increase in the proportion of injuries occurring at home (57.8% vs. 32.5%, P<0.001) or on bicycles (18.3% vs. 8.2%, P<0.001), but a decrease in those related to sports (7.2% vs. 26.0%, P<0.001) or playgrounds (5.2% vs. 9.0%, P<0.001). There was no increase in time-to-presentation. Patients with distal radius torus fractures were more likely to receive a velcro splint during the pandemic (44.2% vs. 25.9%, P=0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric fracture volume has decreased 2.5-fold during the COVID-19 pandemic, partially because of cessation of organized sports and decreased playground use. In endemic regions, lower trauma volume may allow redeployment of orthopaedic surgeons and staff to other clinical arenas. Given the rising proportion of bicycling injuries, an emphasis on basic safety precautions could improve public health. An observed increase in the prescription of velcro splints for distal radius fractures highlights an opportunity for simplified patient care during the pandemic.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

Labrecque J, S. Kaufman J. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Children

BACKGROUND

Six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, children appear largely spared from the direct effects of disease, suggesting age as an important predictor of infection and severity. They remain, however, impacted by far-reaching public health interventions. One crucial question often posed is whether children generally transmit SARS-CoV-2 effectively.

METHODS

We assessed the components of transmission and the different study designs and considerations necessary for valid assessment of transmission dynamics. We searched for published evidence about transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children employing a narrative review methodology through 25 June, 2020.

RESULTS

Transmission dynamics must be studied in repre - sentative pediatric populations with a combination of study designs including rigorous epidemiological studies (e.g. in households, schools, daycares, clinical settings) and laboratory studies while taking into account the social and socio-economic contexts. Viral load (VL) estimates from representative pediatric samples of infected children are missing so far. Currently available evidence suggests that the secondary attack rate stratified by age of the infector is lower for children, however this age pattern needs to be better quantified and understood.

CONCLUSION

A generalizable pediatric evidence base is urgently needed to inform policy making now, later when facing potential subsequent waves, and extending through a future in which endemicity alongside vaccination may become the enduring reality.

Psychological Outcomes Associated with Stay-at-Home Orders and the Perceived Impact of COVID-19 on Daily Life

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the widespread implementation of extraordinary physical distancing interventions (e.g., stay-at-home orders) to slow the spread of the virus. Although vital, these interventions may be socially and economically disruptive, contributing to adverse psychological outcomes. This study examined relations of both stay-at-home orders and the perceived impact of COVID-19 on daily life to psychological outcomes (depression, health anxiety, financial worry, social support, and loneliness) in a nationwide U.S. community adult sample (N = 500; 47% women, mean age = 40). Participants completed questionnaires assessing psychological outcomes, stay-at-home order status, and COVID-19's impact on their daily life. Being under a stay-at-home order was associated with greater health anxiety, financial worry, and loneliness. Moreover, the perceived impact of COVID-19 on daily life was positively associated with health anxiety, financial worry, and social support, but negatively associated with loneliness. Findings highlight the importance of social connection to mitigate negative psychological consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Amplifying the role of knowledge translation platforms in the COVID-19 pandemic response

The COVID-19 pandemic presents the worst public health crisis in recent history. The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been challenged by many factors, including scientific uncertainties, scarcity of relevant research, proliferation of misinformation and fake news, poor access to actionable evidence, time constraints, and weak collaborations among relevant stakeholders. Knowledge translation (KT) platforms, composed of organisations, initiatives and networks supporting evidence-informed policy-making, can play an important role in providing relevant and timely evidence to inform pandemic responses and bridge the gap between science, policy, practice and politics. In this Commentary, we highlight the emerging roles of KT platforms in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also reflect on the lessons learned from the efforts of a KT platform in a middle-income country to inform decision-making and practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lessons learned can be integrated into strengthening the role, structures and mandates of KT platforms as hubs for trustworthy evidence that can inform policies and practice during public health crises and in promoting their integration and institutionalisation within the policy-making processes.

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force. The potential benefits from school closures need to be weighed against costs of health-care worker absenteeism associated with additional child-care obligations. In this study, we aimed to measure child-care obligations for US health-care workers arising from school closures when these are used as a social distancing measure. We then assessed how important the contribution of health-care workers would have to be in reducing mortality for their absenteeism due to child-care obligations to undo the benefits of school closures in reducing the number of cases.

Methods

For this modelling analysis, we used data from the monthly releases of the US Current Population Survey to characterise the family structure and probable within-household child-care options of US health-care workers. We accounted for the occupation within the health-care sector, state, and household structure to identify the segments of the health-care workforce that are most exposed to child-care obligations from school closures. We used these estimates to identify the critical level at which the importance of health-care labour supply in increasing the survival probability of a patient with COVID-19 would undo the benefits of school closures and ultimately increase cumulative mortality.

Findings

Between January, 2018, and January, 2020, the US Current Population Survey included information on more than 3·1 million individuals across 1·3 million households. We found that the US health-care sector has some of the highest child-care obligations in the USA, with 28·8% (95% CI 28·5–29·1) of the health-care workforce needing to provide care for children aged 3–12 years. Assuming non-working adults or a sibling aged 13 years or older can provide child care, 15·0% (14·8–15·2) of the health-care workforce would still be in need of child care during a school closure. We observed substantial variation within the health-care system. We estimated that, combined with reasonable parameters for COVID-19 such as a 15·0% case reduction from school closings and 2·0% baseline mortality rate, a 15·0% decrease in the health-care labour force would need to decrease the survival probability per percent health-care worker lost by 17·6% for a school closure to increase cumulative mortality. Our model estimates that if the infection mortality rate of COVID-19 increases from 2·00% to 2·35% when the health-care workforce declines by 15·0%, school closures could lead to a greater number of deaths than they prevent.

Interpretation

School closures come with many trade-offs, and can create unintended child-care obligations. Our results suggest that the potential contagion prevention from school closures needs to be carefully weighted with the potential loss of health-care workers from the standpoint of reducing cumulative mortality due to COVID-19, in the absence of mitigating measures.

Funding

None.

Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in Germany: Early assessment and possible scenarios

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020. In this work, mathematical models are used to reproduce data of the early evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, taking into account the effect of actual and hypothetical non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended to account for undetected infections, stages of infection, and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5. Data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases, and reduced contact to risk groups.

Australian state influenza notifications and school closures in 2019

Background: The impact of school holidays on influenza rates has been sparsely documented in Australia. In 2019, the early winter influenza season coincided with mid-year school breaks, enabling us the unusual opportunity to examine how influenza incidence changed during school closure dates. Methods: The weekly influenza data from five Australian state and one territory health departments for the period of week 19 (mid-May) to week 35 (early September) 2019 were compared to each state's public school closure dates. We used segmented regression to model the weekly counts and a negative binomial distribution to account for overdispersion due to autocorrelation. The models' goodness-of-fit was assessed by plots of observed versus expected counts, plots of residuals versus predicted values, and Pearson's Chi-square test. The main exposure was the July two-week school vacation period, using a lag of one week. The effect is estimated as a percent change in incidence level, and in slope. We also dichotomized the change in weekly counts into decreases versus increases (or no change). The proportion of decreases were then compared for each of three periods (pre-vacation, vacation, post-vacation) using Fishers exact test. Results: School holidays were associated with significant declines in influenza incidence. The models showed acceptable goodness-of-fit. The numbers and percentages of decreases in weekly influenza counts from the previous week for all states combined were: 19 (33%) pre-vacation; 11 (92%) decreases during the vacation; and 19 (59%) decreases post-vacation (P=0.0002). The first decline during school holidays is seen in the school aged (5-19 years) population, with the declines in the adult and infant populations being smaller and following a week later. Conclusions: Given the significant and rapid reductions in incidence, these results have important public health implications. Closure or extension of holiday periods could be an emergency option for state governments.

Australian state influenza notifications and school holiday closures in 2019

Background: The impact of school holidays on influenza rates has been sparsely documented in Australia. In 2019, the early winter influenza season coincided with mid-year school breaks, enabling us the unusual opportunity to examine how influenza incidence changed during school holiday closure dates. Methods: The weekly influenza data from five Australian state and one territory health departments for the period of week 19 (mid-May) to week 39 (early October) 2019 were compared to each state's public-school holiday closure dates. We used segmented regression to model the weekly counts and a negative binomial distribution to account for overdispersion due to autocorrelation. The models' goodness-of-fit was assessed by plots of observed versus expected counts, plots of residuals versus predicted values, and Pearson's Chi-square test. The main exposure was the July two-week school holiday period, using a lag of one week. The effect is estimated as a percent change in incidence level, and in slope. Results: School holidays were associated with significant declines in influenza incidence in three states and one territory by between 41% and 65%. Two states did not show evidence of declines although one of those states had already passed its peak by the time of the school holidays. The models showed acceptable goodness-of-fit. The first decline during school holidays is seen in the school aged (5-19 years) population, with the declines in the adult and infant populations being smaller and following a week later. Conclusions: Given the significant and rapid reductions in incidence, these results have important public health implications. Closure or extension of holiday periods could be an emergency option for state governments.

Australian state influenza notifications and school holiday closures in 2019

Background: The impact of school holidays on influenza rates has been sparsely documented in Australia. In 2019, the early winter influenza season coincided with mid-year school breaks, enabling us the unusual opportunity to examine how influenza incidence changed during school holiday closure dates. Methods: The weekly influenza data from five Australian state and one territory health departments for the period of week 19 (mid-May) to week 39 (early October) 2019 were compared to each state's public-school holiday closure dates. We used segmented regression to model the weekly counts and a negative binomial distribution to account for overdispersion due to autocorrelation. The models' goodness-of-fit was assessed by plots of observed versus expected counts, plots of residuals versus predicted values, and Pearson's Chi-square test. The main exposure was the July two-week school holiday period, using a lag of one week. The effect is estimated as a percent change in incidence level, and in slope. Results: School holidays were associated with significant declines in influenza incidence in three states and one territory by between 41% and 65%. Two states did not show evidence of declines although one of those states had already passed its peak by the time of the school holidays. The models showed acceptable goodness-of-fit. The first decline during school holidays is seen in the school aged (5-19 years) population, with the declines in the adult and infant populations being smaller and following a week later. Conclusions: Given the significant and rapid reductions in incidence, these results have important public health implications. Closure or extension of holiday periods could be an emergency option for state governments.

School and preparedness officials' perspectives on social distancing practices to reduce influenza transmission during a pandemic: Considerations to guide future work

The objective of this qualitative study was to explore the perspectives of school and preparedness officials on the feasibility of implementing a range of social distancing practices to reduce influenza transmission during a pandemic. In the summer of 2017, we conducted 36 focus groups by teleconference and webinar lasting 90 min with school and preparedness stakeholders from across the United States. We identified and characterized 11 themes arising from the focus group protocol's domains as well as unanticipated emergent themes. These themes were: the need for effective stakeholder communication, the importance of partnering for buy-in, the role of social distancing in heightening anxiety, ensuring student safety, how practices work in combination, challenges with enforcement, lack of funding for school nurses, differing views about schools' role in protecting public health, the need for education and community engagement to ensure consistent implementation, the need for collaborative decision-making, and tension between standardizing public health guidance and adapting to local contexts. Addressing several crosscutting considerations can increase the likelihood that social distancing practices will be feasible and acceptable to school stakeholders.

Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission.

METHODS

Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310.

Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission.

METHODS

Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310.

School practices to promote social distancing in K-12 schools: review of influenza pandemic policies and practices

BACKGROUND

During an evolving influenza pandemic, community mitigation strategies, such as social distancing, can slow down virus transmission in schools and surrounding communities. To date, research on school practices to promote social distancing in primary and secondary schools has focused on prolonged school closure, with little attention paid to the identification and feasibility of other more sustainable interventions. To develop a list and typology of school practices that have been proposed and/or implemented in an influenza pandemic and to uncover any barriers identified, lessons learned from their use, and documented impacts.

METHODS

We conducted a review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature on social distancing interventions in schools other than school closure. We also collected state government guidance documents directed to local education agencies or schools to assess state policies regarding social distancing. We collected standardized information from each document using an abstraction form and generated descriptive statistics on common plan elements.

RESULTS

The document review revealed limited literature on school practices to promote social distancing, as well as limited incorporation of school practices to promote social distancing into state government guidance documents. Among the 38 states that had guidance documents that met inclusion criteria, fewer than half (42%) mentioned a single school practice to promote social distancing, and none provided any substantive detail about the policies or practices needed to enact them. The most frequently identified school practices were cancelling or postponing after-school activities, canceling classes or activities with a high rate of mixing/contact that occur within the school day, and reducing mixing during transport.

CONCLUSION

Little information is available to schools to develop policies and procedures on social distancing. Additional research and guidance are needed to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of school practices to promote social distancing.

Disparities in spread and control of influenza in slums of Delhi: findings from an agent-based modelling study

OBJECTIVES

This research studies the role of slums in the spread and control of infectious diseases in the National Capital Territory of India, Delhi, using detailed social contact networks of its residents.

METHODS

We use an agent-based model to study the spread of influenza in Delhi through person-to-person contact. Two different networks are used: one in which slum and non-slum regions are treated the same, and the other in which 298 slum zones are identified. In the second network, slum-specific demographics and activities are assigned to the individuals whose homes reside inside these zones. The main effects of integrating slums are that the network has more home-related contacts due to larger family sizes and more outside contacts due to more daily activities outside home. Various vaccination and social distancing interventions are applied to control the spread of influenza.

RESULTS

Simulation-based results show that when slum attributes are ignored, the effectiveness of vaccination can be overestimated by 30%-55%, in terms of reducing the peak number of infections and the size of the epidemic, and in delaying the time to peak infection. The slum population sustains greater infection rates under all intervention scenarios in the network that treats slums differently. Vaccination strategy performs better than social distancing strategies in slums.

CONCLUSIONS

Unique characteristics of slums play a significant role in the spread of infectious diseases. Modelling slums and estimating their impact on epidemics will help policy makers and regulators more accurately prioritise allocation of scarce medical resources and implement public health policies.

Intervention to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out

The emergence of a new strain of a disease, or the introduction of an existing strain to a naive population, can give rise to an epidemic. We consider how to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out - that is, disease elimination in the trough between the first and second waves of infection - in the Markovian SIR-with-demography epidemic model. We assume we have an intervention at our disposal that results in a lowering of the transmission rate parameter, β, and that an epidemic has commenced. We determine the optimal stage during the epidemic in which to implement this intervention. This may be determined using Markov decision theory, but this is not always practical, in particular if the population size is large. Hence, we also derive a formula that gives an almost optimal solution, based upon the approximate deterministic behaviour of the model. This formula is explicit, simple, and, perhaps surprisingly, independent of β and the effectiveness of the intervention. We demonstrate that this policy can give a substantial increase in the probability of epidemic fade-out, and we also show that it is relatively robust to a less than ideal implementation.

Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

Value for Money in H1N1 Influenza: A Systematic Review of the Cost-Effectiveness of Pandemic Interventions

BACKGROUND

The 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic generated additional data and triggered new studies that opened debate over the optimal strategy for handling a pandemic. The lessons-learned documents from the World Health Organization show the need for a cost estimation of the pandemic response during the risk-assessment phase. Several years after the crisis, what conclusions can we draw from this field of research?

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this article was to provide an analysis of the studies that present cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses for A/H1N1 pandemic interventions since 2009 and to identify which measures seem most cost-effective.

METHODS

We reviewed 18 academic articles that provide cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses for A/H1N1 pandemic interventions since 2009. Our review converts the studies' results into a cost-utility measure (cost per disability-adjusted life-year or quality-adjusted life-year) and presents the contexts of severity and fatality.

RESULTS

The existing studies suggest that hospital quarantine, vaccination, and usage of the antiviral stockpile are highly cost-effective, even for mild pandemics. However, school closures, antiviral treatments, and social distancing may not qualify as efficient measures, for a virus like 2009's H1N1 and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $45,000 per disability-adjusted life-year. Such interventions may become cost-effective for severe crises.

CONCLUSIONS

This study helps to shed light on the cost-utility of various interventions, and may support decision making, among other criteria, for future pandemics. Nonetheless, one should consider these results carefully, considering these may not apply to a specific crisis or country, and a dedicated cost-effectiveness assessment should be conducted at the time.

Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States

Background

The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission.

Methods

We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.

Results

Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics.

Conclusions

Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods.

Dynamic Multicore Processing for Pandemic Influenza Simulation

Pandemic simulation is a useful tool for analyzing outbreaks and exploring the impact of variations in disease, population, and intervention models. Unfortunately, this type of simulation can be quite time-consuming especially for large models and significant outbreaks, which makes it difficult to run the simulations interactively and to use simulation for decision support during ongoing outbreaks. Improved run-time performance enables new applications of pandemic simulations, and can potentially allow decision makers to explore different scenarios and intervention effects. Parallelization of infection-probability calculations and multicore architectures can take advantage of modern processors to achieve significant run-time performance improvements. However, because of the varying computational load during each simulation run, which originates from the changing number of infectious persons during the outbreak, it is not useful to us the same multicore setup during the simulation run. The best performance can be achieved by dynamically changing the use of the available processor cores to balance the overhead of multithreading with the performance gains of parallelization.

Pandemic Risk Modelling

This chapter will explore the nature of communicable diseases, a brief history of pandemics, and will introduce the mathematical models used to evaluate the risk pandemics pose to human populations. Such modelling is used in a public health context, where modelling past and current events provides insight in how to respond most effectively to a new outbreak. It is also used in the context of risk mutualisation and transfer. As recently as 2013, a survey of 30,000 insurance executives placed global pandemic as the biggest extreme risk facing insurers (Towers Watson. 2013. Insurers Rate Global Pandemic as the Major Extreme Risk. 3 December). The chapter will introduce the principles used to model these events in the insurance industry and will conclude with a review of the way these models are applied in an unconventional risk transfer context.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics.

Reactive School Closure During Increased Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Activity in Western Kentucky, 2013: A Field Evaluation of Effect on ILI Incidence and Economic and Social Consequences for Families

A reactive school closure following high influenza-like illness-related student absenteeism in a Kentucky school district did not influence reported influenza-like illness transmission in student households.

Background. School closures are an important mitigation strategy during influenza pandemic: if implemented early in a local outbreak, they can slow the disease spread in the surrounding community. During seasonal influenza epidemics, school closures may occur reactively, after the disease is already widespread in the community. Such reactive closures are often too late to reduce influenza transmission. However, they can provide data to determine under which circumstances they might be effective in reducing influenza-like illness (ILI) transmission.

Methods. We conducted a household survey in a school district in Kentucky. District A closed after high student absenteeism due to influenza-like illness (ILI), whereas adjacent Districts B and C remained open. We collected data on self-reported ILI among household members in these 3 districts 2 weeks before the District A closure, during closure, and 2 weeks after reopening, and we evaluated economic and social consequences of school closure on student households in District A. The difference-in-differences method was applied to compare changes in ILI rates from before to after closure between districts.

Results. Estimated average daily ILI rate decreased less in District A than in District B or C for the entire sample and when stratified by age groups (0–5 years old, 6–18 years old, and above 18 years old). Twenty-five percent of District A households reported ≥1 closure-related economic or social difficulty.

Conclusions. Closing schools after a widespread ILI activity in District A did not reduce ILI transmission but caused difficulties for some households.

Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures

Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.

Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.

METHODOLOGY

This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.

FINDINGS

The estimated cost of the study's baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.

CONCLUSION

This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.

Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

A Flexible Simulation Architecture for Pandemic Influenza Simulation

Simulation is an important resource for studying the dynamics of pandemic influenza and predicting the potential impact of interventions. However, there are several challenges for the design of such simulator architectures. Specifically, it is difficult to develop simulators that combine flexibility with run-time performance. This tradeoff is problematic in the pandemic-response setting because it makes it challenging to extend and adapt simulators for ongoing situations where rapid results are indispensable. Simulation architectures based on aspect-oriented programming can model specific concerns of the simulator and can allow developers to rapidly extend the simulator in new ways without sacrificing run-time performance. It is possible to use such aspects in conjunction with separate simulation models, which define community, disease, and intervention properties. The implication of this research for pandemic response is that aspects can add a novel layer of flexibility to simulation environments, which enables modelers to extend the simulator run-time component to new requirements that go beyond the original modeling framework.

The Effects of Media Reports on Disease Spread and Important Public Health Measurements

Controlling the spread of influenza to reduce the effects of infection on a population is an important mandate of public health. Mass media reports on an epidemic or pandemic can provide important information to the public, and in turn, can induce positive healthy behaviour practices (i.e., handwashing, social distancing) in the individuals, that will reduce the probability of contracting the disease. Mass media fatigue, however, can dampen these effects. Mathematical models can be used to study the effects of mass media reports on epidemic/pandemic outcomes. In this study we employ a stochastic agent based model to provide a quantification of mass media reports on the variability in important public health measurements. We also include mass media report data compiled by the Global Public Health Intelligence Network, to study the effects of mass media reports in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We find that the report rate and the rate at which individuals relax their healthy behaviours (media fatigue) greatly affect the variability in important public health measurements. When the mass media reporting data is included in the model, two peaks of infection result.