Outbreak of influenza A (H3N2) variant virus infection among attendees of an agricultural fair, Pennsylvania, USA, 2011

Influenza A virus infections in swine: pathogenesis and diagnosis

Influenza has been recognized as a respiratory disease in swine since its first appearance concurrent with the 1918 "Spanish flu" human pandemic. All influenza viruses of significance in swine are type A, subtype H1N1, H1N2, or H3N2 viruses. Influenza viruses infect epithelial cells lining the surface of the respiratory tract, inducing prominent necrotizing bronchitis and bronchiolitis and variable interstitial pneumonia. Cell death is due to direct virus infection and to insult directed by leukocytes and cytokines of the innate immune system. The most virulent viruses consistently express the following characteristics of infection: (1) higher or more prolonged virus replication, (2) excessive cytokine induction, and (3) replication in the lower respiratory tract. Nearly all the viral proteins contribute to virulence. Pigs are susceptible to infection with both human and avian viruses, which often results in gene reassortment between these viruses and endemic swine viruses. The receptors on the epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract are major determinants of infection by influenza viruses from other hosts. The polymerases, especially PB2, also influence cross-species infection. Methods of diagnosis and characterization of influenza viruses that infect swine have improved over the years, driven both by the availability of new technologies and by the necessity of keeping up with changes in the virus. Testing of oral fluids from pigs for virus and antibody is a recent development that allows efficient sampling of large numbers of animals.

Multiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v)

BACKGROUND

In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults.

METHODS

We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.

Transmissibility of variant influenza from Swine to humans: a modeling approach

BACKGROUND

Respiratory illness was reported among humans and swine at an agricultural fair in 2011; 3 human infections with an influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus were confirmed. Using epidemiologic investigation data, we sought to estimate H3N2v transmissibility from swine to humans.

METHODS

We developed a model of H3N2v transmission among swine and humans and fit it to data from a cohort of 100 agricultural club members reporting swine contact to estimate transmissibility. A sensitivity analysis was performed varying H3N2v prevalence in the club cohort. Using the best-fit transmission probability, we simulated the number of swine-acquired infections among all fair attendees.

RESULTS

We estimated the best-fit probability of swine-to-human H3N2v transmission per minute of swine contact. Applying this probability to 14 910 people with swine contact at the fair, we estimate that there were 80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 40-133) H3N2v infections among persons aged <20 years and 58 (95% CI, 29-96) H3N2v infections among person aged ≥20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Using early data from investigation of a new virus with unclear transmission properties, we estimated the transmissibility of H3N2v from swine to humans and the burden of H3N2v among fair attendees. Although the risk of H3N2v virus infection is small for fair attendees with minimal swine contact, large populations attend agricultural events each year, and human cases will likely occur when infected swine are present.

Impact of prior seasonal H3N2 influenza vaccination or infection on protection and transmission of emerging variants of influenza A(H3N2)v virus in ferrets

Influenza H3N2 A viruses continue to circulate in swine and occasionally infect humans, resulting in outbreaks of variant influenza H3N2 [A(H3N2)v] virus. It has been previously demonstrated in ferrets that A(H3N2)v viruses transmit as efficiently as seasonal influenza viruses, raising concern over the pandemic potential of these viruses. However, A(H3N2)v viruses have not acquired the ability to transmit efficiently among humans, which may be due in part to existing cross-reactive immunity to A(H3N2)v viruses. Although current seasonal H3N2 and A(H3N2)v viruses are antigenically distinct from one another, historical H3N2 viruses have some antigenic similarity to A(H3N2)v viruses and previous exposure to these viruses may provide a measure of immune protection sufficient to dampen A(H3N2)v virus transmission. Here, we evaluated whether prior seasonal H3N2 influenza virus vaccination or infection affects virus replication and transmission of A(H3N2)v virus in the ferret animal model. We found that the seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza virus vaccine (TIV) or a monovalent vaccine prepared from an antigenically related 1992 seasonal influenza H3N2 (A/Beijing/32/1992) virus failed to substantially reduce A(H3N2)v (A/Indiana/08/2011) virus shedding and subsequent transmission to naive hosts. Conversely, ferrets primed by seasonal H3N2 virus infection displayed reduced A(H3N2)v virus shedding following challenge, which blunted transmission to naive ferrets. A higher level of specific IgG and IgA antibody titers detected among infected versus vaccinated ferrets was associated with the degree of protection offered by seasonal H3N2 virus infection. The data demonstrate in ferrets that the efficiency of A(H3N2)v transmission is disrupted by preexisting immunity induced by seasonal H3N2 virus infection.

Outbreak of variant influenza A(H3N2) virus in the United States

Background. Variant influenza virus infections are rare but may have pandemic potential if person-to-person transmission is efficient. We describe the epidemiology of a multistate outbreak of an influenza A(H3N2) variant virus (H3N2v) first identified in 2011.

Methods. We identified laboratory-confirmed cases of H3N2v and used a standard case report form to characterize illness and exposures. We considered illness to result from person-to-person H3N2v transmission if swine contact was not identified within 4 days prior to illness onset.

Results. From 9 July to 7 September 2012, we identified 306 cases of H3N2v in 10 states. The median age of all patients was 7 years. Commonly reported signs and symptoms included fever (98%), cough (85%), and fatigue (83%). Sixteen patients (5.2%) were hospitalized, and 1 fatal case was identified. The majority of those infected reported agricultural fair attendance (93%) and/or contact with swine (95%) prior to illness. We identified 15 cases of possible person-to-person transmission of H3N2v. Viruses recovered from patients were 93%–100% identical and similar to viruses recovered from previous cases of H3N2v. All H3N2v viruses examined were susceptible to oseltamivir and zanamivir and resistant to adamantane antiviral medications.

Conclusions. In a large outbreak of variant influenza, the majority of infected persons reported exposures, suggesting that swine contact at an agricultural fair was a risk for H3N2v infection. We identified limited person-to-person H3N2v virus transmission, but found no evidence of efficient or sustained person-to-person transmission. Fair managers and attendees should be aware of the risk of swine-to-human transmission of influenza viruses in these settings.

Influenza

Influenza is a common virus whose ability to change its genetic makeup allows for disease of pandemic proportion. This article summarizes the different strains of influenza circulating in the United States for the past century, the diagnosis and treatment of influenza, as well as the different ways to prevent disease. This information will be of value to clinicians caring for patients both in the hospital and in the community.

H3N2v and other influenza epidemic risk based on age-specific estimates of sero-protection and contact network interactions

Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection) ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain) based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R(0)), and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs). SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09) and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2), and H3N2v) by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre ≥40 (SPR40). Recognizing that the HI titre ≥40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R(0) = 1.40, but we also explored R(0) as high as 1.80. With R(0) = 1.40 and SPR40, simulated ARs were well aligned with field observations for H1N1pdm09 incidence (AR: 32%), sporadic detections without a third epidemic wave post-H1N1pdm09 (negligible AR<0.1%) as well as A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2) seasonal strain extinction and antigenic drift replacement (negligible AR<0.1%). Simulated AR for the novel swine-origin H3N2v was 6%, highest in children 6-11years (16%). However, with modification to SPR thresholds per above, H3N2v AR ≥20% became possible. At SPR40, H3N2v AR ≥10%, ≥15% or ≥30%, occur if R(0)≥1.48, ≥1.56 or ≥1.86, respectively. Based on conventional assumptions, the novel swine-origin H3N2v does not currently pose a substantial pandemic threat. If H3N2v epidemics do occur, overall community ARs are unlikely to exceed typical seasonal influenza experience. However risk assessment may change with time and depends crucially upon the validation of epidemiological features of influenza, notably the serologic correlate of protection and R(0).