More doctors, but not enough: Australian medical workforce supply 2001-2012

Issues facing the future health care workforce: the importance of demand modelling

This article examines issues facing the future health care workforce in Australia in light of factors such as population ageing. It has been argued that population ageing in Australia is affecting the supply of health care professionals as the health workforce ages and at the same time increasing the demand for health care services and the health care workforce.However, the picture is not that simple. The health workforce market in Australia is influenced by a wide range of factors; on the demand side by increasing levels of income and wealth, emergence of new technologies, changing disease profiles, changing public health priorities and a focus on the prevention of chronic disease. While a strong correlation is observed between age and use of health care services (and thus health care workforce), this is mediated through illness, as typified by the consistent finding of higher health care costs in the months preceding death.On the supply side, the health workforce is highly influenced by policy drivers; both national policies (eg funded education and training places) and local policies (eg work place-based retention policies). Population ageing and ageing of the health workforce is not a dominant influence. In recent years, the Australian health care workforce has grown in excess of overall workforce growth, despite an ageing health workforce. We also note that current levels of workforce supply compare favourably with many OECD countries. The future of the health workforce will be shaped by a number of complex interacting factors.Market failure, a key feature of the market for health care services which is also observed in the health care labour market - means that imbalances between demand and supply can develop and persist, and suggests a role for health workforce planning to improve efficiency in the health services sector. Current approaches to health workforce planning, especially on the demand side, tend to be highly simplistic. These include historical allocation methods, such as the personnel-to-population ratios which are essentially circular in their rationale rather than evidence-based. This article highlights the importance of evidence-based demand modelling for those seeking to plan for the future Australian health care workforce. A model based on population health status and best practice protocols for health care is briefly outlined.

Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

BACKGROUND

Anticipating physician supply to tackle future health challenges is a crucial but complex task for policy planners. A number of forecasting tools are available, but the methods, advantages and shortcomings of such tools are not straightforward and not always well appraised. Therefore this paper had two objectives: to present a typology of existing forecasting approaches and to analyse the methodology-related issues.

METHODS

A literature review was carried out in electronic databases Medline-Ovid, Embase and ERIC. Concrete examples of planning experiences in various countries were analysed.

RESULTS

Four main forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce. Benchmarking health systems with similar populations and health profiles is the last approach. These different methods can be combined to perform a gap analysis. The methodological challenges of such projections are numerous: most often static models are used and their uncertainty is not assessed; valid and comprehensive data to feed into the models are often lacking; and a rapidly evolving environment affects the likelihood of projection scenarios. As a result, the internal and external validity of the projections included in our review appeared limited.

CONCLUSION

There is no single accepted approach to forecasting physician requirements. The value of projections lies in their utility in identifying the current and emerging trends to which policy-makers need to respond. A genuine gap analysis, an effective monitoring of key parameters and comprehensive workforce planning are key elements to improving the usefulness of physician supply projections.

Expanding Australian psychiatry training settings beyond metropolitan public hospitals: background and issues

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the rationale behind the expansion of specialist psychiatry training positions outside of major public teaching hospitals, as expounded by the Australian Federal Government's Expanded Settings for Specialist Training (ESST) Program.

CONCLUSION

Alternative training settings are required to help address the anticipated growth in numbers of medical graduates and to meet the need of psychiatry trainees for greater experience in treating high prevalence mental disorders. To progress the expansion of training settings within psychiatry, it is essential that comprehensive consultation be undertaken to understand the implications of this program for trainees, existing training facilities and expanded setting providers to ensure that all stakeholders, including patients and carers, derive benefit.

The global workforce shortages and the migration of medical professions: the Australian policy response

Medical migration sees the providers of medical services (in particular medical practitioners) moving from one region or country to another. This creates problems for the provision of public health and medical services and poses challenges for laws in the nation state and for laws in the global community.There exists a global shortage of healthcare professionals. Nation states and health rights movements have been both responsible for, and responsive to, this global community shortage through a variety of health policy, regulation and legislation which directly affects the migration of medical providers. The microcosm responses adopted by individual nation states, such as Australia, to this workforce shortage further impact on the global workforce shortage through active recruitment of overseas-trained healthcare professionals. "Push" and "pull" factors exist which encourage medical migration of healthcare professionals. A nation state's approach to health policy, regulation and legislation dramatically helps to create these "push factors" and "pull factors". A co-ordinated global response is required with individual nation states being cognisant of the impact of their health policy, regulations and legislation on the global community through the medical migration of healthcare professionals.

Vertical Integration in Teaching And Learning (VITAL): an approach to medical education in general practice

There is increasing demand to provide clinical and teaching experiences in the general practice setting. Vertical integration in teaching and learning, whereby teaching and learning roles are shared across all learner stages, has the potential to decrease time demands and stress on general practitioners, to provide teaching skills and experience to GP registrars, and to improve the learning experience for medical students, and may also help meet the increased demand for teaching in general practice. We consider potential advantages and barriers to vertical integration of teaching in general practice, and provide results of focus group discussions with general practice principals and registrars about vertical integration. We recommend further research into the feasibility of using vertical integration to enhance the capacity to teach medical students in general practice.

Teaching medical students about children with disabilities in a rural setting in a school

BACKGROUND

To describe and implement a community paediatric placement in a school setting that teaches undergraduate medical students about intellectual disability that provides benefit to the community and is acceptable to both students and teachers.

METHODS

Twenty six 4th year undergraduate medical students of the University of Newcastle completed their Paediatric studies based in Tamworth in 2004 & 2005 including an 8 week placement at Bullimbal School for Specific Purposes. The placement involved the students being actively involved in assisting with the delivery of a variety of activities aimed at improving the motor skills of a group of disabled children. De-identified data were obtained from completed evaluation surveys from 75% (21 of 26) of the medical students and from 100% (5 of 5) of the teachers.

RESULTS

All students and teachers found the placement was acceptable and enjoyed the placement and felt that it gave the medical students a greater understanding of children with disabilities. 80% (4 of 5) of the teachers involved in the program did not feel that its implementation added to their workload and all were enthusiastic to continue with the program.

CONCLUSION

Medical students can be effectively taught and have a valuable clinical experience in a school setting to learn about children with a disability. This educational innovation has provided a mutual benefit for both the medical students and the school children who participated in the program without impacting on the workloads of teachers.

Competencies and skills for remote and rural maternity care: a review of the literature

AIM

This paper reports a review of the literature on skills, competencies and continuing professional development necessary for sustainable remote and rural maternity care.

BACKGROUND

There is a general sense that maternity care providers in rural areas need specific skills and competencies. However, how these differ from generic skills and competencies is often unclear.

METHODS

Approaches used to access the research studies included a comprehensive search in relevant electronic databases using relevant keywords (e.g. 'remote', 'midwifery', 'obstetrics', 'nurse-midwives', education', 'hospitals', 'skills', 'competencies', etc.). Experts were approached for (un-)published literature, and books and journals known to the authors were also used. Key journals were hand searched and references were followed up. The original search was conducted in 2004 and updated in 2006.

FINDINGS

Little published literature exists on professional education, training or continuous professional development in maternity care in remote and rural settings. Although we found a large literature on competency, little was specific to competencies for rural practice or for maternity care. 'Hands-on' skills courses such as Advanced Life Support in Obstetrics and the Neonatal Resuscitation Programme increase confidence in practice, but no published evidence of effectiveness of such courses exists.

CONCLUSION

Educators need to be aware of the barriers facing rural practitioners, and there is potential for increasing distant learning facilitated by videoconferencing or Internet access. They should also consider other assessment methods than portfolios. More research is needed on the levels of skills and competencies required for maternity care professionals practising in remote and rural areas.

A radical new treatment for the sick health workforce

The health workforce crisis needs radical treatment; simply educating more health workers will be insufficient, and role substitution among existing health workers is untenable. We propose a new class of health worker who would take on single disease or single procedure responsibilities, working mostly to protocols; and be embedded within current structures. We also propose modular health education which has fewer entry points into the health system, allows transfer between different disciplines, and is based on modules that can be accumulated to allow progress through the system to gain more clinical responsibility.

General practice in Australia 2020: “robust and ready” or “rudderless and reeling”?

The future role and structure of Australian general practice remains uncertain, despite a decade of seemingly constant change following the release of the National Health Strategy papers. Some of the suggested change strategies (such as rural Practice Incentive Payments and practice accreditation) have been implemented; others (such as general practitioner involvement with area health authorities in delivering national goals and targets for communities) still await attention. An overarching vision for our health care system in 2020 and general practice's role within it are still to be clearly enunciated. Australia is at variance with other Western countries, such as the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand, which have spent significant time refocusing their health systems to deal with an ageing population with an increased burden of chronic disease. Health bureaucrats and governments need to invest strategically in operational primary care now. This will require the active commitment of general practice's national bodies to articulate and actively promote a shared vision for Australian general practice.

When the tide goes out: health workforce in rural, remote and Indigenous communities

There is compelling evidence for the success of the "rural pipeline" (rural student recruitment and rurally based education and professional training) in increasing the rural workforce. The nexus between clinical education and training, sustaining the health care workforce, clinical research, and quality and safety needs greater emphasis in regional areas. A "teaching health system" for non-metropolitan Australia requires greater commitment to teaching as core business, as well as provision of infrastructure, including accommodation, and access to the private sector. Workforce flexibility is mostly well accepted in rural and remote areas. There is room for expanding the scope of clinical practice by non-medical clinicians in both an independent codified manner (eg, nurse practitioners) and through flexible local medical delegation (eg, practice nurses, Aboriginal health workers, and therapists). The imbalance between subspecialist and generalist medical training needs to be addressed. Improved training and recognition of Aboriginal health workers, as well as continued investment in Indigenous entry to other health professional programs, remain policy priorities.

Principles for supporting task substitution in Australian general practice

The workforce crisis in Australian general practice provides an impetus to consider new roles for other health professionals. Any innovations need to be appraised in advance for their potential risks and benefits. We propose six principles for this appraisal. These are the need for the new roles to: support the relationship between patients and their general practitioners; be clearly defined, aligned with competency and with relevant professional registration; be supported by practice systems providing safeguards against medical error; be underpinned by a system ensuring informed patient consent to activities being undertaken by members of the general practice team; be supported by effective medical indemnity insurance and be supported with appropriate financing.