101
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Astete S, Marinho-Filho J, Machado RB, Zimbres B, Jácomo ATA, Sollmann R, Tôrres NM, Silveira L. Living in extreme environments: modeling habitat suitability for jaguars, pumas, and their prey in a semiarid habitat. J Mammal 2016. [DOI: 10.1093/jmammal/gyw184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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102
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Muscarella R, Uriarte M. Do community-weighted mean functional traits reflect optimal strategies? Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:20152434. [PMID: 27030412 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2015] [Accepted: 03/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The notion that relationships between community-weighted mean (CWM) traits (i.e. plot-level trait values weighted by species abundances) and environmental conditions reflect selection towards locally optimal phenotypes is challenged by the large amount of interspecific trait variation typically found within ecological communities. Reconciling these contrasting patterns is a key to advancing predictive theories of functional community ecology. We combined data on geographical distributions and three traits (wood density, leaf mass per area and maximum height) of 173 tree species in Puerto Rico. We tested the hypothesis that species are more likely to occur where their trait values are more similar to the local CWM trait values (the'CWM-optimality' hypothesis) by comparing species occurrence patterns (as a proxy for fitness) with the functional composition of forest plots across a precipitation gradient. While 70% of the species supported CWM-optimality for at least one trait, nearly 25% significantly opposed it for at least one trait, thereby contributing to local functional diversity. The majority (85%) of species that opposed CWM-optimality did so only for one trait and few species opposed CWM-optimality in multivariate trait space. Our study suggests that constraints to local functional variation act more strongly on multivariate phenotypes than on univariate traits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Muscarella
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark
| | - María Uriarte
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
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103
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Bateman BL, Pidgeon AM, Radeloff VC, Flather CH, VanDerWal J, Akçakaya HR, Thogmartin WE, Albright TP, Vavrus SJ, Heglund PJ. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2016; 26:2718-2729. [PMID: 27907262 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2015] [Revised: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 02/25/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brooke L Bateman
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, SILVIS Lab, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Anna M Pidgeon
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, SILVIS Lab, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, SILVIS Lab, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Curtis H Flather
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
- Division of Research and Innovation, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - H Resit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794, USA
| | - Wayne E Thogmartin
- U. S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin 54603, USA
| | - Thomas P Albright
- Department of Geography and Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology, Laboratory for Conservation Biogeography, University of Nevada-Reno, Reno, Nevada 89577, USA
| | - Stephen J Vavrus
- Center for Climate Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
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104
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Pironon S, Papuga G, Villellas J, Angert AL, García MB, Thompson JD. Geographic variation in genetic and demographic performance: new insights from an old biogeographical paradigm. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2016; 92:1877-1909. [DOI: 10.1111/brv.12313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 214] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2015] [Revised: 10/07/2016] [Accepted: 10/17/2016] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Pironon
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC); Box 1005 avenida Montañana 50059 Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Guillaume Papuga
- UMR 5175 Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS; Box 1019 route de Mende 34090 Montpellier France
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Natura e del Territorio; Università degli Studi di Sassari; Box 21 Piazza Universitá 07100 Sassari Italy
| | - Jesús Villellas
- Department of Biology; Duke University; Box 90338 Durham NC 27708-0338 U.S.A
| | - Amy L. Angert
- Departments of Botany and Zoology; University of British Columbia; Box 4200-6270 University Boulevard, Vancouver V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - María B. García
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC); Box 1005 avenida Montañana 50059 Zaragoza, Spain
| | - John D. Thompson
- UMR 5175 Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS; Box 1019 route de Mende 34090 Montpellier France
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105
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Bush A, Mokany K, Catullo R, Hoffmann A, Kellermann V, Sgrò C, McEvey S, Ferrier S. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. Ecol Lett 2016; 19:1468-1478. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2016] [Revised: 09/01/2016] [Accepted: 10/05/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alex Bush
- CSIRO Land and Water; Canberra Australia
| | | | - Renee Catullo
- CSIRO Land and Water; Canberra Australia
- Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; Sydney Australia
- School of Science and Health; Western Sydney University; Australia
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106
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Gomes E, Capinha C, Rocha J, Sousa C. Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0164788. [PMID: 27814371 PMCID: PMC5096710 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2016] [Accepted: 10/02/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Gomes
- Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
- * E-mail:
| | - César Capinha
- CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Cátedra Infraestruturas de Portugal-Biodiversidade, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jorge Rocha
- Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Carla Sousa
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, GHTM, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
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107
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Gómez-Ruiz EP, Lacher TE. Modelling the potential geographic distribution of an endangered pollination corridor in Mexico and the United States. DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Emma P. Gómez-Ruiz
- Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad; Liga Periférico-Insurgentes Sur Núm. 4903, Col. Parques del Pedregal, Delegación Tlalpan 14010 Mexico City Mexico
| | - Thomas E. Lacher
- Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences; Texas A&M University; 210 Nagle Hall College Station TX 77843-2258 USA
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108
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Dewald JR, Fuller DO, Müller GC, Beier JC. A novel method for mapping village-scale outdoor resting microhabitats of the primary African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae. Malar J 2016; 15:489. [PMID: 27659918 PMCID: PMC5034649 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-016-1534-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2016] [Accepted: 09/13/2016] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Knowledge of Anopheles resting habitats is needed to advance outdoor malaria vector control. This study presents a technique to map locations of resting habitats using high-resolution satellite imagery (world view 2) and probabilistic Dempster-Shafer (D-S) modelling, focused on a rural village in southern Mali, West Africa where field sampling was conducted to determine outdoor habitat preferences of Anopheles gambiae, the main vector in the study area. Methods A combination of supervised and manual image classification was used to derive an accurate land-cover map from the satellite image that provided classes (i.e., photosynthetically active vegetation, water bodies, wetlands, and buildings) suitable for habitat assessment. Linear fuzzy functions were applied to the different image classes to scale resting habitat covariates into a common data range (0–1) with fuzzy breakpoints parameterized experimentally through comparison with mosquito outdoor resting data. Fuzzy layers were entered into a Dempster-Shafer (D-S) weight-of-evidence model that produced pixel-based probability of resting habitat locations. Results The D-S model provided a highly detailed suitability map of resting locations. The results indicated a significant difference (p < 0.001) between D-S values at locations positive for An. gambiae and a set of randomly sampled points. Further, a negative binomial regression indicated that although the D-S estimates did not predict abundance (p > 0.05) subsequent analysis suggested that the D-S modelling approach may provide a reasonable estimate locations of low-to-medium An. gambiae density. These results suggest that that D-S modelling performed well in identifying presence points and specifically resting habitats. Conclusion The use of a D-S modelling framework for predicting the outdoor resting habitat locations provided novel information on this little-known aspect of anopheline ecology. The technique used here may be applied more broadly at different geographic scales using Google Earth, Landsat or other remotely-sensed imagery to assess the malaria vector resting habitats where outdoor control measures can reduce the burden of the disease in Africa and elsewhere.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julius R Dewald
- Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
| | - Douglas O Fuller
- Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA
| | - Günter C Müller
- Kuvin Center for the Study of Tropical and Infectious Diseases, Hadassah Medical School, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
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109
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Basile M, Valerio F, Balestrieri R, Posillico M, Bucci R, Altea T, De Cinti B, Matteucci G. Patchiness of forest landscape can predict species distribution better than abundance: the case of a forest-dwelling passerine, the short-toed treecreeper, in central Italy. PeerJ 2016; 4:e2398. [PMID: 27651990 PMCID: PMC5018664 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.2398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/02/2016] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Environmental heterogeneity affects not only the distribution of a species but also its local abundance. High heterogeneity due to habitat alteration and fragmentation can influence the realized niche of a species, lowering habitat suitability as well as reducing local abundance. We investigate whether a relationship exists between habitat suitability and abundance and whether both are affected by fragmentation. Our aim was to assess the predictive power of such a relationship to derive advice for environmental management. As a model species we used a forest specialist, the short-toed treecreeper (Family: Certhiidae; Certhia brachydactyla Brehm, 1820), and sampled it in central Italy. Species distribution was modelled as a function of forest structure, productivity and fragmentation, while abundance was directly estimated in two central Italian forest stands. Different algorithms were implemented to model species distribution, employing 170 occurrence points provided mostly by the MITO2000 database: an artificial neural network, classification tree analysis, flexible discriminant analysis, generalized boosting models, generalized linear models, multivariate additive regression splines, maximum entropy and random forests. Abundance was estimated also considering detectability, through N-mixture models. Differences between forest stands in both abundance and habitat suitability were assessed as well as the existence of a relationship. Simpler algorithms resulted in higher goodness of fit than complex ones. Fragmentation was highly influential in determining potential distribution. Local abundance and habitat suitability differed significantly between the two forest stands, which were also significantly different in the degree of fragmentation. Regression showed that suitability has a weak significant effect in explaining increasing value of abundance. In particular, local abundances varied both at low and high suitability values. The study lends support to the concept that the degree of fragmentation can contribute to alter not only the suitability of an area for a species, but also its abundance. Even if the relationship between suitability and abundance can be used as an early warning of habitat deterioration, its weak predictive power needs further research. However, we define relationships between a species and some landscape features (i.e., fragmentation, extensive rejuvenation of forests and tree plantations) which could be easily controlled by appropriate forest management planning to enhance environmental suitability, at least in an area possessing high conservation and biodiversity values.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Basile
- Istituto di Biologia Agroambientale e Forestale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monterotondo Scalo, Italy
- Coordinamento MItO2000, Parma, Italy
- Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Francesco Valerio
- CIBIO/InBIO-UE—Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, Pole of Évora Applied Population and Community Ecology Laboratory, University of Évora UBC—Conservation Biology Lab, Department of Biology, Évora, Portugal
| | - Rosario Balestrieri
- Istituto di Biologia Agroambientale e Forestale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monterotondo Scalo, Italy
- Coordinamento MItO2000, Parma, Italy
| | - Mario Posillico
- Istituto di Biologia Agroambientale e Forestale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monterotondo Scalo, Italy
- Ufficio Territoriale Biodiversità di Castel di Sangro-Centro Ricerche Ambienti Montani, Corpo Forestale dello Stato, Castel di Sangro, Italy
| | - Rodolfo Bucci
- Ufficio Territoriale Biodiversità di Castel di Sangro-Centro Ricerche Ambienti Montani, Corpo Forestale dello Stato, Castel di Sangro, Italy
| | - Tiziana Altea
- Ufficio Territoriale Biodiversità di Castel di Sangro-Centro Ricerche Ambienti Montani, Corpo Forestale dello Stato, Castel di Sangro, Italy
| | - Bruno De Cinti
- Istituto di Biologia Agroambientale e Forestale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monterotondo Scalo, Italy
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- Istituto per i Sistemi Agricoli e Forestali del Mediterraneo, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Ercolano (Na), Italy
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110
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Ishida Y, Van Coeverden de Groot PJ, Leggett KEA, Putnam AS, Fox VE, Lai J, Boag PT, Georgiadis NJ, Roca AL. Genetic connectivity across marginal habitats: the elephants of the Namib Desert. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:6189-201. [PMID: 27648236 PMCID: PMC5016642 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2016] [Revised: 06/30/2016] [Accepted: 07/04/2016] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Locally isolated populations in marginal habitats may be genetically distinctive and of heightened conservation concern. Elephants inhabiting the Namib Desert have been reported to show distinctive behavioral and phenotypic adaptations in that severely arid environment. The genetic distinctiveness of Namibian desert elephants relative to other African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) populations has not been established. To investigate the genetic structure of elephants in Namibia, we determined the mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region sequences and genotyped 17 microsatellite loci in desert elephants (n = 8) from the Hoanib River catchment and the Hoarusib River catchment. We compared these to the genotypes of elephants (n = 77) from other localities in Namibia. The mtDNA haplotype sequences and frequencies among desert elephants were similar to those of elephants in Etosha National Park, the Huab River catchment, the Ugab River catchment, and central Kunene, although the geographically distant Caprivi Strip had different mtDNA haplotypes. Likewise, analysis of the microsatellite genotypes of desert-dwelling elephants revealed that they were not genetically distinctive from Etosha elephants, and there was no evidence for isolation by distance across the Etosha region. These results, and a review of the historical record, suggest that a high learning capacity and long-distance migrations allowed Namibian elephants to regularly shift their ranges to survive in the face of high variability in climate and in hunting pressure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yasuko Ishida
- Department of Animal SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐ChampaignUrbanaIllinois61801
| | | | - Keith E. A. Leggett
- Namibian Elephant and Giraffe TrustOutjoNamibia
- Present address: Fowlers Gap Arid Zone Research StationSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of New South WalesKensingtonNSW2051Australia
| | - Andrea S. Putnam
- Department of Life SciencesSan Diego Zoo GlobalSan DiegoCalifornia92112
| | | | - Jesse Lai
- Department of BiologyQueen's UniversityKingstonONK7L 3N6Canada
| | - Peter T. Boag
- Department of BiologyQueen's UniversityKingstonONK7L 3N6Canada
| | | | - Alfred L. Roca
- Department of Animal SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐ChampaignUrbanaIllinois61801
- Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic BiologyUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐ChampaignUrbanaIllinois61801
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111
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Osorio-Olvera LA, Falconi M, Soberón J. Sobre la relación entre idoneidad del hábitat y la abundancia poblacional bajo diferentes escenarios de dispersión. REV MEX BIODIVERS 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.rmb.2016.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
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112
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Parthenogenesis through the ice ages: A biogeographic analysis of Caucasian rock lizards (genus Darevskia). Mol Phylogenet Evol 2016; 102:117-27. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ympev.2016.05.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2015] [Revised: 05/23/2016] [Accepted: 05/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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113
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Morelli TL, Daly C, Dobrowski SZ, Dulen DM, Ebersole JL, Jackson ST, Lundquist JD, Millar CI, Maher SP, Monahan WB, Nydick KR, Redmond KT, Sawyer SC, Stock S, Beissinger SR. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0159909. [PMID: 27509088 PMCID: PMC4980047 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 158] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toni Lyn Morelli
- U.S. Geological Survey, DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, Amherst, MA, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Christopher Daly
- College of Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States of America
| | - Solomon Z. Dobrowski
- College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States of America
| | - Deanna M. Dulen
- U.S. National Park Service, Devils Postpile National Monument, Mammoth Lakes, CA, United States of America
| | - Joseph L. Ebersole
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Western Ecological Division, Corvallis, OR, United States of America
| | - Stephen T. Jackson
- U.S. Geological Survey, DOI Southwest Climate Science Center, Tucson, AZ, United States of America
- Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States of America
| | - Jessica D. Lundquist
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Constance I. Millar
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA, United States of America
| | - Sean P. Maher
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
- Department of Biology, Missouri State University, Springfield, MO, United States of America
| | - William B. Monahan
- USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
| | - Koren R. Nydick
- U.S. National Park Service, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, CA, United States of America
| | - Kelly T. Redmond
- Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, United States of America
| | - Sarah C. Sawyer
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, Vallejo, CA, United States of America
| | - Sarah Stock
- U.S. National Park Service, Yosemite National Park, El Portal, CA, United States of America
| | - Steven R. Beissinger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
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114
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Martin GA, Yanez-Arenas C, Roberts BJ, Chen C, Plowright RK, Webb RJ, Skerratt LF. Climatic suitability influences species specific abundance patterns of Australian flying foxes and risk of Hendra virus spillover. One Health 2016; 2:115-121. [PMID: 28616484 PMCID: PMC5441320 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2016.07.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/27/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Hendra virus is a paramyxovirus of Australian flying fox bats. It was first detected in August 1994, after the death of 20 horses and one human. Since then it has occurred regularly within a portion of the geographical distribution of all Australian flying fox (fruit bat) species. There is, however, little understanding about which species are most likely responsible for spillover, or why spillover does not occur in other areas occupied by reservoir and spillover hosts. Using ecological niche models of the four flying fox species we were able to identify which species are most likely linked to spillover events using the concept of distance to the niche centroid of each species. With this novel approach we found that 20 out of 27 events occur disproportionately closer to the niche centroid of two species (P. alecto and P. conspicillatus). With linear regressions we found a negative relationship between distance to the niche centroid and abundance of these two species. Thus, we suggest that the bioclimatic niche of these two species is likely driving the spatial pattern of spillover of Hendra virus into horses and ultimately humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo A Martin
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Carlos Yanez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, Yucatán, México
| | - Billie J Roberts
- School of Environment, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Carla Chen
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Raina K Plowright
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Rebecca J Webb
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Lee F Skerratt
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
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115
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Wan JZ, Wang CJ, Liu CX, Li HL. Climate change may alter genetic diversity of Duchesnea indica, a clonal plant species. BIOCHEM SYST ECOL 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bse.2016.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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116
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Knouft JH, Anthony MM. Climate and local abundance in freshwater fishes. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2016; 3:160093. [PMID: 27429769 PMCID: PMC4929904 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2016] [Accepted: 05/24/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Identifying factors regulating variation in numbers of individuals among populations across a species' distribution is a fundamental goal in ecology. A common prediction, often referred to as the abundant-centre hypothesis, suggests that abundance is highest near the centre of a species' range. However, because of the primary focus on the geographical position of a population, this framework provides little insight into the environmental factors regulating local abundance. While range-wide variation in population abundance associated with environmental conditions has been investigated in terrestrial species, the relationship between climate and local abundance in freshwater taxa across species' distributions is not well understood. We used GIS-based temperature and precipitation data to determine the relationships between climatic conditions and range-wide variation in local abundance for 19 species of North American freshwater fishes. Climate predicted a portion of the variation in local abundance among populations for 18 species. In addition, the relationship between climatic conditions and local abundance varied among species, which is expected as lineages partition the environment across geographical space. The influence of local habitat quality on species persistence is well documented; however, our results also indicate the importance of climate in regulating population sizes across a species geographical range, even in aquatic taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason H. Knouft
- Department of Biology, Saint Louis University, 3507 Laclede Avenue, St Louis, Missouri 63103, USA
| | - Melissa M. Anthony
- Program in Integrated and Applied Sciences, Saint Louis University, 3507 Laclede Avenue, St Louis, Missouri 63103, USA
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117
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Elevational Distribution of Flightless Ground Beetles in the Tropical Rainforests of North-Eastern Australia. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0155826. [PMID: 27192085 PMCID: PMC4871570 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2015] [Accepted: 05/04/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how the environment influences patterns of diversity is vital for effective conservation management, especially in a changing global climate. While assemblage structure and species richness patterns are often correlated with current environmental factors, historical influences may also be considerable, especially for taxa with poor dispersal abilities. Mountain-top regions throughout tropical rainforests can act as important refugia for taxa characterised by low dispersal capacities such as flightless ground beetles (Carabidae), an ecologically significant predatory group. We surveyed flightless ground beetles along elevational gradients in five different subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to investigate (1) whether the diversity and composition of flightless ground beetles are elevationally stratified, and, if so, (2) what environmental factors (other than elevation per se) are associated with these patterns. Generalised linear models and model averaging techniques were used to relate patterns of diversity to environmental factors. Unlike most taxonomic groups, flightless ground beetles increased in species richness and abundance with elevation. Additionally, each subregion consisted of relatively distinct assemblages containing a high level of regional endemic species. Species richness was most strongly and positively associated with historical and current climatic stabilities and negatively associated with severity of recent disturbance (treefalls). Assemblage composition was associated with latitude and historical and current climatic conditions. Although the results need to be interpreted carefully due to inter-correlation between historical and current climatic variables, our study is in agreement with the hypothesis that upland refugia provided stable climatic conditions since the last glacial maximum, and supported a diverse fauna of flightless beetle species. These findings are important for conservation management as upland habitats become increasingly threatened by climate change.
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118
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Searcy CA, Shaffer HB. Do Ecological Niche Models Accurately Identify Climatic Determinants of Species Ranges? Am Nat 2016; 187:423-35. [DOI: 10.1086/685387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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119
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Nabout JC, Magalhães MR, de Amorim Gomes MA, da Cunha HF. The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2016; 57:814-821. [PMID: 26796699 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-016-0659-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2014] [Accepted: 01/08/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.
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Affiliation(s)
- João Carlos Nabout
- Câmpus de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas - Henrique Santillo (CCET), Universidade Estadual de Goiás, BR-153, nº 3.105, Anápolis, GO, CEP 75132-903, Brazil.
| | - Mara Rúbia Magalhães
- Câmpus de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas - Henrique Santillo (CCET), Universidade Estadual de Goiás, BR-153, nº 3.105, Anápolis, GO, CEP 75132-903, Brazil
| | - Marcos Aurélio de Amorim Gomes
- Câmpus de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas - Henrique Santillo (CCET), Universidade Estadual de Goiás, BR-153, nº 3.105, Anápolis, GO, CEP 75132-903, Brazil
| | - Hélida Ferreira da Cunha
- Câmpus de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas - Henrique Santillo (CCET), Universidade Estadual de Goiás, BR-153, nº 3.105, Anápolis, GO, CEP 75132-903, Brazil
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120
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Vanderduys EP, Reside AE, Grice A, Rechetelo J. Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0148485. [PMID: 26934622 PMCID: PMC4774931 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0148485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2015] [Accepted: 01/19/2016] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - April E. Reside
- Centre for Tropical Environmental & Sustainability Sciences, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia
| | - Anthony Grice
- College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia
| | - Juliana Rechetelo
- CSIRO Land and Water, PMB PO, Aitkenvale, Queensland, Australia
- College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia
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121
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Olivero J, Fa JE, Farfán MA, Lewis J, Hewlett B, Breuer T, Carpaneto GM, Fernández M, Germi F, Hattori S, Head J, Ichikawa M, Kitanaishi K, Knights J, Matsuura N, Migliano A, Nese B, Noss A, Ekoumou DO, Paulin P, Real R, Riddell M, Stevenson EGJ, Toda M, Vargas JM, Yasuoka H, Nasi R. Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0144499. [PMID: 26735953 PMCID: PMC4711706 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2015] [Accepted: 11/19/2015] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples’ culture and lifestyles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesús Olivero
- Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Facultad de Ciencias, Málaga, Spain
| | - Julia E. Fa
- Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), CIFOR Headquarters, Bogor, Indonesia
- * E-mail:
| | - Miguel A. Farfán
- Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Facultad de Ciencias, Málaga, Spain
| | - Jerome Lewis
- Department of Anthropology, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Barry Hewlett
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Vancouver, Washington, United States of America
| | - Thomas Breuer
- Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, New York, United States of America
| | | | | | | | - Shiho Hattori
- Faculty of International Studies, Tenri University, Tenri City, Nara, Japan
| | | | | | - Koichi Kitanaishi
- Faculty of Education, Yamaguchi University, Yoshida, Yamaguchi-shi Yamaguchi, Japan
| | - Jessica Knights
- Department of Anthropology, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Naoki Matsuura
- Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies, Kyoto University, Shimoadachi-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Andrea Migliano
- Department of Anthropology, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Barbara Nese
- COOPI-Cooperazione Internazionale ONG Onlus, Milano–I, Italy
| | - Andrew Noss
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | | | | | - Raimundo Real
- Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Facultad de Ciencias, Málaga, Spain
| | - Mike Riddell
- Bioclimate, Research and Development, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Mikako Toda
- Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies, Kyoto University, Shimoadachi-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan
| | - J. Mario Vargas
- Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Facultad de Ciencias, Málaga, Spain
| | - Hirokazu Yasuoka
- Faculty of Humanity and Environment, Hosei University, Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Robert Nasi
- Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), CIFOR Headquarters, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Bogor, Indonesia
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122
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123
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Friggens MM, Finch DM. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0144089. [PMID: 26700871 PMCID: PMC4689447 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2015] [Accepted: 11/12/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan M Friggens
- United States Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Deborah M Finch
- United States Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America
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124
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Januario SM, Estay SA, Labra FA, Lima M. Combining environmental suitability and population abundances to evaluate the invasive potential of the tunicate Ciona intestinalis along the temperate South American coast. PeerJ 2015; 3:e1357. [PMID: 26528417 PMCID: PMC4627925 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.1357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2015] [Accepted: 10/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The tunicate Ciona intestinalis is an opportunistic invader with high potential for causing economic losses in aquaculture centers. Recent phylogenetic and population genetic analysis support the existence of a genetic complex described as C. intestinalis with two main dominant species (sp A and B) occurring worldwide. In Chile, the species has been observed around 30°S of latitude, but no official reports exist for the presence of C. intestinalis in southern regions (above 40°S), where most of the mollusk aquaculture centers are located. Here, we used occurrences from multiple invaded regions and extensive field sampling to model and validate the environmental conditions that allow the species to persist and to find the geographic areas with the most suitable environmental conditions for the spread of C. intestinalis in the Chilean coast. By studying the potential expansion of C. intestinalis southward in the Chilean Coast, we aimed to provide valuable information that might help the development of control plans before the species becomes a significant problem, especially above 40°S. Our results highlight that, by using portions of the habitat that are apparently distinguishable, the species seem to be not only genetically distinct, but ecologically distinct as well. The two regional models fitted for sp A and for sp B showed disagreement on which sections of Chilean coastline are considered more suitable for these species. While the model for sp A identifies moderately to highly suitable areas between 30° and 40°S, the model for sp B classifies the areas around 45°S as the most appropriate. Data from field sampling show a positive linear relationship between density of C. intestinalis and the index of suitability for sp A in aquaculture centers. Understanding the relation of the distinct species with the surrounding environment provided valuable insights about probable routes of dispersion in Chile, especially into those areas considered suitable for aquaculture activities but where the species has not yet been recorded. We discuss the implications of our findings as a useful tool to anticipate the invasion of such harmful invasive species with regard to the most relevant environmental variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stella M Januario
- Departamento Ciencias Biologicas y Químicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad San Sebastián , Valdivia , Chile ; Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile , Santiago , Chile
| | - Sergio A Estay
- Instituto Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile , Valdivia , Chile ; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile , Santiago , Chile
| | - Fabio A Labra
- Centro de Investigación e Innovación para el Cambio Climático, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Santo Tomas , Santiago Region Metropolitana , Chile
| | - Mauricio Lima
- Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile , Santiago , Chile ; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile , Santiago , Chile
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125
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Labay BJ, Hendrickson DA, Cohen AE, Bonner TH, King RS, Kleinsasser LJ, Linam GW, Winemiller KO. Can Species Distribution Models Aid Bioassessment when Reference Sites are Lacking? Tests Based on Freshwater Fishes. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2015; 56:835-846. [PMID: 26092052 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-015-0567-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2014] [Accepted: 06/15/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Recent literature reviews of bioassessment methods raise questions about use of least-impacted reference sites to characterize natural conditions that no longer exist within contemporary landscapes. We explore an alternate approach for bioassessment that uses species site occupancy data from museum archives as input for species distribution models (SDMs) stacked to predict species assemblages of freshwater fishes in Texas. When data for estimating reference conditions are lacking, deviation between richness of contemporary versus modeled species assemblages could provide a means to infer relative biological integrity at appropriate spatial scales. We constructed SDMs for 100 freshwater fish species to compare predicted species assemblages to data on contemporary assemblages acquired by four independent surveys that sampled 269 sites. We then compared site-specific observed/predicted ratios of the number of species at sites to scores from a multimetric index of biotic integrity (IBI). Predicted numbers of species were moderately to strongly correlated with the numbers observed by the four surveys. We found significant, though weak, relationships between observed/predicted ratios and IBI scores. SDM-based assessments identified patterns of local assemblage change that were congruent with IBI inferences; however, modeling artifacts that likely contributed to over-prediction of species presence may restrict the stand-alone use of SDM-derived patterns for bioassessment and therefore warrant examination. Our results suggest that when extensive standardized survey data that include reference sites are lacking, as is commonly the case, SDMs derived from generally much more readily available species site occupancy data could be used to provide a complementary tool for bioassessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben J Labay
- Department of Integrative Biology, Biodiversity Collections, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA,
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126
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Carrascal LM, Aragón P, Palomino D, Lobo JM. Predicting regional densities from bird occurrence data: validation and effects of species traits in a Macaronesian Island. DIVERS DISTRIB 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Luis M. Carrascal
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change; Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales; CSIC. C/ José Gutiérrez Abascal 2 28006 Madrid Spain
| | - Pedro Aragón
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change; Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales; CSIC. C/ José Gutiérrez Abascal 2 28006 Madrid Spain
| | - David Palomino
- Wildlife Consultor; C/ Candanchú 18 28440 Guadarrama Spain
| | - Jorge M. Lobo
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change; Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales; CSIC. C/ José Gutiérrez Abascal 2 28006 Madrid Spain
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127
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Muñoz AR, Jiménez-Valverde A, Márquez AL, Moleón M, Real R. Environmental favourability as a cost-efficient tool to estimate carrying capacity. DIVERS DISTRIB 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Antonio-Román Muñoz
- Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Research Team; Department of Animal Biology; Faculty of Sciences; Universidad de Málaga; E-29071 Malaga Spain
| | - Alberto Jiménez-Valverde
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change; Museo de Ciencias Naturales de Madrid (CSIC); E-28006 Madrid Spain
- Grupo de Investigación de Biología del Suelo y de los Ecosistemas Subterráneos; Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida; Universidad de Alcalá; A.P. 20 Campus Universitario E-28805 Alcalá de Henares Madrid Spain
| | - Ana Luz Márquez
- Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Research Team; Department of Animal Biology; Faculty of Sciences; Universidad de Málaga; E-29071 Malaga Spain
| | - Marcos Moleón
- Centre for African Ecology; School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences; University of the Witwatersrand; Wits 2050 Johannesburg South Africa
| | - Raimundo Real
- Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Research Team; Department of Animal Biology; Faculty of Sciences; Universidad de Málaga; E-29071 Malaga Spain
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128
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Veloz S, Salas L, Altman B, Alexander J, Jongsomjit D, Elliott N, Ballard G. Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2015; 29:1217-1227. [PMID: 25873240 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2014] [Accepted: 11/11/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High-density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10-40% of the landscape. Compared with density-based models, the occurrence-based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density-based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Veloz
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma, CA, 94954, U.S.A
| | - Leonardo Salas
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma, CA, 94954, U.S.A
| | - Bob Altman
- American Bird Conservancy, 4249 Loudon Avenue, The Plains, VA, 20198, U.S.A
| | - John Alexander
- Klamath Bird Observatory, P.O. Box 758, Ashland, OR, 97520, U.S.A
| | - Dennis Jongsomjit
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma, CA, 94954, U.S.A
| | - Nathan Elliott
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma, CA, 94954, U.S.A
| | - Grant Ballard
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma, CA, 94954, U.S.A
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Ureña-Aranda CA, Rojas-Soto O, Martínez-Meyer E, Yáñez-Arenas C, Landgrave Ramírez R, Espinosa de los Monteros A. Using Range-Wide Abundance Modeling to Identify Key Conservation Areas for the Micro-Endemic Bolson Tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus). PLoS One 2015; 10:e0131452. [PMID: 26115482 PMCID: PMC4482574 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2014] [Accepted: 06/02/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
A widespread biogeographic pattern in nature is that population abundance is not uniform across the geographic range of species: most occurrence sites have relatively low numbers, whereas a few places contain orders of magnitude more individuals. The Bolson tortoise Gopherus flavomarginatus is endemic to a small region of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico, where habitat deterioration threatens this species with extinction. In this study we combined field burrows counts and the approach for modeling species abundance based on calculating the distance to the niche centroid to obtain range-wide abundance estimates. For the Bolson tortoise, we found a robust, negative relationship between observed burrows abundance and distance to the niche centroid, with a predictive capacity of 71%. Based on these results we identified four priority areas for the conservation of this microendemic and threatened tortoise. We conclude that this approach may be a useful approximation for identifying key areas for sampling and conservation efforts in elusive and rare species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cinthya A. Ureña-Aranda
- División de Posgrado, Instituto de Ecología, A. C., El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
- Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A. C., El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
| | - Octavio Rojas-Soto
- Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A. C., El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
| | - Enrique Martínez-Meyer
- Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México, México
| | - Carlos Yáñez-Arenas
- División de Posgrado, Instituto de Ecología, A. C., El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
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130
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Fancourt BA, Bateman BL, VanDerWal J, Nicol SC, Hawkins CE, Jones ME, Johnson CN. Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather? PLoS One 2015; 10:e0129420. [PMID: 26106887 PMCID: PMC4479380 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0129420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2015] [Accepted: 05/10/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to test whether shifting weather can explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus). We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between 1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003 coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species’ distribution. Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions, and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that fluctuations in weather account for the species’ recent decline, but other unrelated factors have suppressed recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bronwyn A. Fancourt
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Brooke L. Bateman
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest & Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change and eResearch Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Stewart C. Nicol
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Clare E. Hawkins
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Menna E. Jones
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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131
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom H. Oliver
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | - David B. Roy
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
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132
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Swanepoel LH, Somers MJ, Dalerum F. Functional Responses of Retaliatory Killing versus Recreational Sport Hunting of Leopards in South Africa. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0125539. [PMID: 25905623 PMCID: PMC4408058 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0125539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2014] [Accepted: 03/25/2015] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Predation strategies in response to altering prey abundances can dramatically influence the demographic effects of predation. Despite this, predation strategies of humans are rarely incorporated into quantitative assessments of the demographic impacts of humans killing carnivores. This scarcity largely seems to be caused by a lack of data. In this study, we contrasted predation strategies exhibited by people involved in retaliatory killing and recreational sport hunting of leopards (Panthera pardus) in the Waterberg District Municipality, South Africa. We predicted a specialist predation strategy exemplified by a type II functional response for retaliatory killing, and a generalist strategy exemplified by a type III functional response for recreational sport hunting. We could not distinguish between a type I, a type II, or a type III functional response for retaliatory killing, but the most parsimonious model for recreational sport hunting corresponded to a type I functional response. Kill rates were consistently higher for retaliatory killing than for recreational sport hunting. Our results indicate that retaliatory killing of leopards may have severe demographic consequences for leopard populations, whereas the demographic consequences of recreational sport hunting likely are less dramatic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lourens H. Swanepoel
- Department of Zoology, University of Venda, Private bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, South Africa
- Centre for Wildlife Management, Hatfield Experimental Farm, University of Pretoria, Private bag X20, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
| | - Michael J. Somers
- Department of Zoology, University of Venda, Private bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, South Africa
- Centre for Invasive Biology, University of Pretoria, Private bag X20, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
| | - Fredrik Dalerum
- Centre for Wildlife Management, Hatfield Experimental Farm, University of Pretoria, Private bag X20, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
- Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Private bag X20, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
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133
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Boyce MS, Johnson CJ, Merrill EH, Nielsen SE, Solberg EJ, van Moorter B. REVIEW: Can habitat selection predict abundance? J Anim Ecol 2015; 85:11-20. [PMID: 25786026 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2014] [Accepted: 02/06/2015] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Habitats have substantial influence on the distribution and abundance of animals. Animals' selective movement yields their habitat use. Animals generally are more abundant in habitats that are selected most strongly. Models of habitat selection can be used to distribute animals on the landscape or their distribution can be modelled based on data of habitat use, occupancy, intensity of use or counts of animals. When the population is at carrying capacity or in an ideal-free distribution, habitat selection and related metrics of habitat use can be used to estimate abundance. If the population is not at equilibrium, models have the flexibility to incorporate density into models of habitat selection; but abundance might be influenced by factors influencing fitness that are not directly related to habitat thereby compromising the use of habitat-based models for predicting population size. Scale and domain of the sampling frame, both in time and space, are crucial considerations limiting application of these models. Ultimately, identifying reliable models for predicting abundance from habitat data requires an understanding of the mechanisms underlying population regulation and limitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark S Boyce
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9, Canada
| | - Chris J Johnson
- Ecosystem Science and Management Program, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, V2N 4Z9, Canada
| | - Evelyn H Merrill
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9, Canada
| | - Scott E Nielsen
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Canada
| | - Erling J Solberg
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, 7485, Norway
| | - Bram van Moorter
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, 7485, Norway
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134
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Ehrlén J, Morris WF. Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change. Ecol Lett 2015; 18:303-14. [PMID: 25611188 PMCID: PMC4674973 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 209] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2014] [Revised: 09/03/2014] [Accepted: 12/17/2014] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm UniversityStockholm, Sweden
| | - William F Morris
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala UniversityUppsala, Sweden
- Department of Biology, Duke UniversityDurham, NC, USA
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135
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Clare JD, Anderson EM, MacFarland DM. Predicting bobcat abundance at a landscape scale and evaluating occupancy as a density index in central Wisconsin. J Wildl Manage 2015. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- John D.J. Clare
- College of Natural Resources; University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point; Stevens Point WI 54481 USA
| | - Eric M. Anderson
- College of Natural Resources; University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point; Stevens Point WI 54481 USA
| | - David M. MacFarland
- Bureau of Wildlife Management; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Rhinelander WI 54501 USA
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136
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Princé K, Lorrillière R, Barbet-Massin M, Léger F, Jiguet F. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0117850. [PMID: 25699673 PMCID: PMC4336325 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117850] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2014] [Accepted: 01/02/2015] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karine Princé
- Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d’Oiseaux, CP 51, Paris, France
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Romain Lorrillière
- Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d’Oiseaux, CP 51, Paris, France
| | - Morgane Barbet-Massin
- Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d’Oiseaux, CP 51, Paris, France
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - François Léger
- AgroParisTech, UMR SAD-APT INRA/AgroParisTech, Paris, France
| | - Frédéric Jiguet
- Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d’Oiseaux, CP 51, Paris, France
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137
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Diniz-Filho JAF, Rodrigues H, Telles MPDC, Oliveira GD, Terribile LC, Soares TN, Nabout JC. Correlation between genetic diversity and environmental suitability: taking uncertainty from ecological niche models into account. Mol Ecol Resour 2015; 15:1059-66. [PMID: 25603895 DOI: 10.1111/1755-0998.12374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2014] [Revised: 01/05/2015] [Accepted: 01/12/2015] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
The hindcast of shifts in the geographical ranges of species as estimated by ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been coupled with phylogeographical patterns, allowing the inference of past processes that drove population differentiation and genetic variability. However, more recently, some studies have suggested that maps of environmental suitability estimated by ENM may be correlated to species' abundance, raising the possibility of using environmental suitability to infer processes related to population demographic dynamics and genetic variability. In both cases, one of the main problems is that there is a wide variation in ENM development methods and climatic models. In this study, we analyse the relationship between heterozygosity (He) and environmental suitability from multiple ENMs for 25 population estimates for Dipteryx alata, a widely distributed, endemic tree species of the Cerrado region of central Brazil. We propose a new approach for generating a statistical distribution of correlations under randomly generated ENM. The confidence intervals from these distributions indicate how model selection with different properties affects the ability to detect a correlation of interest (e.g. the correlation between He and suitability). Additionally, our approach allows us to explore which particular ensemble of ENMs produces the better result for finding an association between environmental suitability and He. Caution is necessary when choosing a method or a climatic data set for modelling geographical distributions, but the new approach proposed here provides a conservative way to evaluate the ability of ensembles to detect patterns of interest.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hauanny Rodrigues
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética & Biologia Molecular, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, UFG, Goiânia, GO, Brazil
| | | | - Guilherme De Oliveira
- Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Ambientais e Biológicas, Setor de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Recôncavo da Bahia (UFRB), Cruz das Almas, BA, Brazil
| | | | | | - João Carlos Nabout
- Universidade Estadual de Goiás (UEG), Unidade de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas, Anápolis, GO, Brazil
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138
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Monnet AC, Hardouin LA, Robert A, Hingrat Y, Jiguet F. Evidence of a link between demographic rates and species habitat suitability from post release movements in a reinforced bird population. OIKOS 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.01834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anne-Christine Monnet
- UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC ‘Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation’, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle; 55 rue Buffon, CP 51 FR-75005 Paris France
- Emirates Center for Wildlife Propagation; PO Box 47, 33250 Missour Morocco
| | - Loïc A. Hardouin
- UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC ‘Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation’, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle; 55 rue Buffon, CP 51 FR-75005 Paris France
- Emirates Center for Wildlife Propagation; PO Box 47, 33250 Missour Morocco
| | - Alexandre Robert
- UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC ‘Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation’, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle; 55 rue Buffon, CP 51 FR-75005 Paris France
| | - Yves Hingrat
- Emirates Center for Wildlife Propagation; PO Box 47, 33250 Missour Morocco
- RENECO Wildlife Consultants LLC; PO Box 61741 Abu Dhabi U.A.E
| | - Frédéric Jiguet
- UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC ‘Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation’, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle; 55 rue Buffon, CP 51 FR-75005 Paris France
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139
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Thuiller W, Münkemüller T, Schiffers KH, Georges D, Dullinger S, Eckhart VM, Edwards TC, Gravel D, Kunstler G, Merow C, Moore K, Piedallu C, Vissault S, Zimmermann NE, Zurell D, Schurr FM. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics? ECOGRAPHY 2014; 37:1155-1166. [PMID: 25722536 PMCID: PMC4338510 DOI: 10.1111/ecog.00836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/31/2014] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Tamara Münkemüller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Katja H Schiffers
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Damien Georges
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Dep. of Conservation Biology, Vegetation- and Landscape Ecology, Faculty Centre of Biodiversity, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna
| | | | - Thomas C Edwards
- US. Geological Survey, Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and Wildland Resources, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT 84322-5290, USA
| | - Dominique Gravel
- Université du Québec à Rimouski, Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Québec G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Georges Kunstler
- Irstea, UR Mountain Ecosystems, St-Martin-d'Hères, France ; Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
| | - Cory Merow
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, 21307-0028, MD, USA
| | - Kara Moore
- Center for Population Biology, Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Christian Piedallu
- AgroParisTech, UMR1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), ENGREF, Nancy Cedex, France ; INRA, UMR1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), Centre INRA de Nancy, Champenoux, France
| | - Steve Vissault
- Université du Québec à Rimouski, Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Québec G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland ; Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Frank M Schurr
- Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier, UMR-CNRS 5554, Université Montpellier II, 34095 Montpellier cedex 5, France ; Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology, University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
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140
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Yañez-Arenas C, Guevara R, Martínez-Meyer E, Mandujano S, Lobo JM. Predicting species’ abundances from occurrence data: Effects of sample size and bias. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.09.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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141
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Fa JE, Olivero J, Farfán MÁ, Márquez AL, Vargas JM, Real R, Nasi R. Integrating sustainable hunting in biodiversity protection in Central Africa: hot spots, weak spots, and strong spots. PLoS One 2014; 9:e112367. [PMID: 25372705 PMCID: PMC4221474 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2014] [Accepted: 10/10/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Wild animals are a primary source of protein (bushmeat) for people living in or near tropical forests. Ideally, the effect of bushmeat harvests should be monitored closely by making regular estimates of offtake rate and size of stock available for exploitation. However, in practice, this is possible in very few situations because it requires both of these aspects to be readily measurable, and even in the best case, entails very considerable time and effort. As alternative, in this study, we use high-resolution, environmental favorability models for terrestrial mammals (N = 165) in Central Africa to map areas of high species richness (hot spots) and hunting susceptibility. Favorability models distinguish localities with environmental conditions that favor the species' existence from those with detrimental characteristics for its presence. We develop an index for assessing Potential Hunting Sustainability (PHS) of each species based on their ecological characteristics (population density, habitat breadth, rarity and vulnerability), weighted according to restrictive and permissive assumptions of how species' characteristics are combined. Species are classified into five main hunting sustainability classes using fuzzy logic. Using the accumulated favorability values of all species, and their PHS values, we finally identify weak spots, defined as high diversity regions of especial hunting vulnerability for wildlife, as well as strong spots, defined as high diversity areas of high hunting sustainability potential. Our study uses relatively simple models that employ easily obtainable data of a species' ecological characteristics to assess the impacts of hunting in tropical regions. It provides information for management by charting the geography of where species are more or less likely to be at risk of extinction from hunting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia E. Fa
- ICCS, Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, United Kingdom
- Universidad de Málaga, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga, Spain
| | - Jesús Olivero
- Universidad de Málaga, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga, Spain
| | - Miguel Ángel Farfán
- Universidad de Málaga, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga, Spain
| | - Ana Luz Márquez
- Universidad de Málaga, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga, Spain
| | - Juan Mario Vargas
- Universidad de Málaga, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga, Spain
| | - Raimundo Real
- Universidad de Málaga, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga, Spain
| | - Robert Nasi
- Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), CIFOR Headquarters, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Bogor, Indonesia
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Russell DJF, Wanless S, Collingham YC, Anderson BJ, Beale C, Reid JB, Huntley B, Hamer KC. Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles. DIVERS DISTRIB 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Deborah J. F. Russell
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
- SMRU; University of St Andrews; St Andrews KY16 8LB UK
| | - Sarah Wanless
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Edinburgh EH26 0QB UK
| | - Yvonne C. Collingham
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences; Durham University; Durham DH1 3LE UK
| | - Barbara J. Anderson
- Department of Biology; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
- Landcare Research Dunedin; Private Bag 1930 Dunedin 9054 New Zealand
| | - Colin Beale
- Department of Biology; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
| | - James B. Reid
- Joint Nature Conservation Committee; Aberdeen AB11 9QA UK
| | - Brian Huntley
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences; Durham University; Durham DH1 3LE UK
| | - Keith C. Hamer
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
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143
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Identifying Priority Species and Conservation Opportunities Under Future Climate Scenarios: Amphibians in a Biodiversity Hotspot. JOURNAL OF FISH AND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 2014. [DOI: 10.3996/022014-jfwm-015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
Climate change is driving shifts in the distribution of plants and animals, and prioritizing management actions for such shifts is a necessary but technically difficult challenge. We worked with state agencies in the southeastern United States to identify high-priority amphibian species, to model the vulnerabilities of those species to regional climate change, and to identify long-term climatic refugia within the context of existing conservation lands. Directly interfacing with state natural resource experts ensured that 1) species prioritization schemes extend beyond political boundaries and 2) our models resulted in conservation-relevant applications. We used a correlative model to project midcentury distributions of suitable climate for priority species and to evaluate each species' vulnerability to climate change. Using spatially explicit projected climate distributions, we ranked existing protected areas relative to their ability to provide climatic refugia for priority species in 2050. We identified 21 species as regional high-priority species. Fifteen of the 21 species are forecast to lose more than 85% of their climatically suitable habitat. Regions in the Appalachian Mountains, the Florida Panhandle, and the north-central region of Alabama are projected to lose the most climatic habitat for priority amphibian species. We identified many existing protected areas as midcentury climatic refugia in the Appalachians; however, our projections indicated refugia in the Southeast Coastal Plain to be exceedingly scarce. Although the topographic relief present in the Appalachians appears to provide future conservation opportunities via climatic refugia, the Coastal Plain affords fewer such opportunities and conservation of amphibians in that region is likely to be more challenging. The approach outlined here could be applied across a broad range of taxa and regions.
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144
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The use of ecological niche modeling to infer potential risk areas of snakebite in the Mexican state of Veracruz. PLoS One 2014; 9:e100957. [PMID: 24963989 PMCID: PMC4071012 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2014] [Accepted: 05/29/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico. Methodology/Principal Findings Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).
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145
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Bean WT, Prugh LR, Stafford R, Butterfield HS, Westphal M, Brashares JS. Species distribution models of an endangered rodent offer conflicting measures of habitat quality at multiple scales. J Appl Ecol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Laura R. Prugh
- Biology and Wildlife Department; University of Alaska - Fairbanks; Fairbanks AK 99775 USA
| | | | | | - Michael Westphal
- Bureau of Land Management; Hollister Field Office; 20 Hamilton Court Hollister CA 95023 USA
| | - Justin S. Brashares
- Environmental Science, Policy, and Management; University of California; 130 Mulford Hall Berkeley CA 94720 USA
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146
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Mokany K, Prasad S, Westcott DA. Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change. Nat Commun 2014; 5:3971. [DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2013] [Accepted: 04/28/2014] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
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147
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Howard C, Stephens PA, Pearce‐Higgins JW, Gregory RD, Willis SG. Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Christine Howard
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Durham University Mountjoy Science Site Durham DH1 3LE UK
| | - Philip A. Stephens
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Durham University Mountjoy Science Site Durham DH1 3LE UK
| | | | - Richard D. Gregory
- The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds & European Bird Census Council The Lodge Sandy Bedfordshire SG19 2DL UK
| | - Stephen G. Willis
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Durham University Mountjoy Science Site Durham DH1 3LE UK
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148
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Sequeira AMM, Roetman PEJ, Daniels CB, Baker AK, Bradshaw CJA. Distribution models for koalas in South Australia using citizen science-collected data. Ecol Evol 2014; 4:2103-14. [PMID: 25360252 PMCID: PMC4201425 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2013] [Revised: 04/03/2014] [Accepted: 04/05/2014] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occurs in the eucalypt forests of eastern and southern Australia and is currently threatened by habitat fragmentation, climate change, sexually transmitted diseases, and low genetic variability throughout most of its range. Using data collected during the Great Koala Count (a 1-day citizen science project in the state of South Australia), we developed generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict habitat suitability across South Australia accounting for potential errors associated with the dataset. We derived spatial environmental predictors for vegetation (based on dominant species of Eucalyptus or other vegetation), topographic water features, rain, elevation, and temperature range. We also included predictors accounting for human disturbance based on transport infrastructure (sealed and unsealed roads). We generated random pseudo-absences to account for the high prevalence bias typical of citizen-collected data. We accounted for biased sampling effort along sealed and unsealed roads by including an offset for distance to transport infrastructures. The model with the highest statistical support (wAIC c ∼ 1) included all variables except rain, which was highly correlated with elevation. The same model also explained the highest deviance (61.6%), resulted in high R (2)(m) (76.4) and R (2)(c) (81.0), and had a good performance according to Cohen's κ (0.46). Cross-validation error was low (∼ 0.1). Temperature range, elevation, and rain were the best predictors of koala occurrence. Our models predict high habitat suitability in Kangaroo Island, along the Mount Lofty Ranges, and at the tips of the Eyre, Yorke and Fleurieu Peninsulas. In the highest-density region (5576 km(2)) of the Adelaide-Mount Lofty Ranges, a density-suitability relationship predicts a population of 113,704 (95% confidence interval: 27,685-199,723; average density = 5.0-35.8 km(-2)). We demonstrate the power of citizen science data for predicting species' distributions provided that the statistical approaches applied account for some uncertainties and potential biases. A future improvement to citizen science surveys to provide better data on search effort is that smartphone apps could be activated at the start of the search. The results of our models provide preliminary ranges of habitat suitability and population size for a species for which previous data have been difficult or impossible to gather otherwise.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana M M Sequeira
- The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Philip E J Roetman
- Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, South Australia, 5001, Australia
| | - Christopher B Daniels
- Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, South Australia, 5001, Australia
| | - Andrew K Baker
- CSIRO Land and Water Private Bag No. 2, Glen Osmond, South Australia, 5064, Australia
| | - Corey J A Bradshaw
- The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
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149
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Projected distributions and diversity of flightless ground beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and their environmental correlates. PLoS One 2014; 9:e88635. [PMID: 24586362 PMCID: PMC3930578 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088635] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2013] [Accepted: 01/15/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae) within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group's primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area. These findings have dramatic implications for all other flightless insect taxa and the future biodiversity of this region.
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150
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Cozzoli F, Eelkema M, Bouma TJ, Ysebaert T, Escaravage V, Herman PMJ. A mixed modeling approach to predict the effect of environmental modification on species distributions. PLoS One 2014; 9:e89131. [PMID: 24586545 PMCID: PMC3935846 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2013] [Accepted: 01/20/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Human infrastructures can modify ecosystems, thereby affecting the occurrence and spatial distribution of organisms, as well as ecosystem functionality. Sustainable development requires the ability to predict responses of species to anthropogenic pressures. We investigated the large scale, long term effect of important human alterations of benthic habitats with an integrated approach combining engineering and ecological modelling. We focused our analysis on the Oosterschelde basin (The Netherlands), which was partially embanked by a storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering, 1986). We made use of 1) a prognostic (numerical) environmental (hydrodynamic) model and 2) a novel application of quantile regression to Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to simulate both the realized and potential (habitat suitability) abundance of four macrozoobenthic species: Scoloplos armiger, Peringia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Lanice conchilega. The analysis shows that part of the fluctuations in macrozoobenthic biomass stocks during the last decades is related to the effect of the coastal defense infrastructures on the basin morphology and hydrodynamics. The methodological framework we propose is particularly suitable for the analysis of large abundance datasets combined with high-resolution environmental data. Our analysis provides useful information on future changes in ecosystem functionality induced by human activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Cozzoli
- Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands
| | - Menno Eelkema
- Hydraulic Engineering Department, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Tjeerd J. Bouma
- Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands
| | - Tom Ysebaert
- Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands
- Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies, Wageningen University, Yerseke, The Netherlands
| | - Vincent Escaravage
- Monitor Taskforce, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands
| | - Peter M. J. Herman
- Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands
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