Clinical Course and Molecular Viral Shedding Among Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Community Treatment Center in the Republic of Korea

Simulating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting transmission in COVID-19 epidemics using a membrane computing model

Epidemics caused by microbial organisms are part of the natural phenomena of increasing biological complexity. The heterogeneity and constant variability of hosts, in terms of age, immunological status, family structure, lifestyle, work activities, social and leisure habits, daily division of time and other demographic characteristics make it extremely difficult to predict the evolution of epidemics. Such prediction is, however, critical for implementing intervention measures in due time and with appropriate intensity. General conclusions should be precluded, given that local parameters dominate the flow of local epidemics. Membrane computing models allows us to reproduce the objects (viruses and hosts) and their interactions (stochastic but also with defined probabilities) with an unprecedented level of detail. Our LOIMOS model helps reproduce the demographics and social aspects of a hypothetical town of 10 320 inhabitants in an average European country where COVID-19 is imported from the outside. The above-mentioned characteristics of hosts and their lifestyle are minutely considered. For the data in the Hospital and the ICU we took advantage of the observations at the Nursery Intensive Care Unit of the Consortium University General Hospital, Valencia, Spain (included as author). The dynamics of the epidemics are reproduced and include the effects on viral transmission of innate and acquired immunity at various ages. The model predicts the consequences of delaying the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (between 15 and 45 days after the first reported cases) and the effect of those interventions on infection and mortality rates (reducing transmission by 20, 50 and 80%) in immunological response groups. The lockdown for the elderly population as a single intervention appears to be effective. This modeling exercise exemplifies the application of membrane computing for designing appropriate multilateral interventions in epidemic situations.

Routine saliva testing for the identification of silent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in healthcare workers

OBJECTIVE

Current COVID-19 guidelines recommend symptom-based screening and regular nasopharyngeal (NP) testing for healthcare personnel in high-risk settings. We sought to estimate case detection percentages with various routine NP and saliva testing frequencies.

DESIGN

Simulation modeling study.

METHODS

We constructed a sensitivity function based on the average infectiousness profile of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases to determine the probability of being identified at the time of testing. This function was fitted to reported data on the percent positivity of symptomatic COVID-19 patients using NP testing. We then simulated a routine testing program with different NP and saliva testing frequencies to determine case detection percentages during the infectious period, as well as the presymptomatic stage.

RESULTS

Routine biweekly NP testing, once every 2 weeks, identified an average of 90.7% (SD, 0.18) of cases during the infectious period and 19.7% (SD, 0.98) during the presymptomatic stage. With a weekly NP testing frequency, the corresponding case detection percentages were 95.9% (SD, 0.18) and 32.9% (SD, 1.23), respectively. A 5-day saliva testing schedule had a similar case detection percentage as weekly NP testing during the infectious period, but identified ~10% more cases (mean, 42.5%; SD, 1.10) during the presymptomatic stage.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight the utility of routine noninvasive saliva testing for frontline healthcare workers to protect vulnerable patient populations. A 5-day saliva testing schedule should be considered to help identify silent infections and prevent outbreaks in nursing homes and healthcare facilities.

Incomplete antiviral treatment may induce longer durations of viral shedding during SARS-CoV-2 infection

The duration of viral shedding is determined by a balance between de novo infection and removal of infected cells. That is, if infection is completely blocked with antiviral drugs (100% inhibition), the duration of viral shedding is minimal and is determined by the length of virus production. However, some mathematical models predict that if infected individuals are treated with antiviral drugs with efficacy below 100%, viral shedding may last longer than without treatment because further de novo infections are driven by entry of the virus into partially protected, uninfected cells at a slower rate. Using a simple mathematical model, we quantified SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in non-human primates and characterized the kinetics of viral shedding. We counterintuitively found that treatments initiated early, such as 0.5 d after virus inoculation, with intermediate to relatively high efficacy (30-70% inhibition of virus replication) yield a prolonged duration of viral shedding (by about 6.0 d) compared with no treatment.

Comparison of Symptoms and RNA Levels in Children and Adults With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the Community Setting

Importance

The association between COVID-19 symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 viral levels in children living in the community is not well understood.

Objective

To characterize symptoms of pediatric COVID-19 in the community and analyze the association between symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels, as approximated by cycle threshold (Ct) values, in children and adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used a respiratory virus surveillance platform in persons of all ages to detect community COVID-19 cases from March 23 to November 9, 2020. A population-based convenience sample of children younger than 18 years and adults in King County, Washington, who enrolled online for home self-collection of upper respiratory samples for SARS-CoV-2 testing were included.

Exposures

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from participant-collected samples.

Main Outcomes and Measures

RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, with Ct values stratified by age and symptoms.

Results

Among 555 SARS-CoV-2-positive participants (mean [SD] age, 33.7 [20.1] years; 320 were female [57.7%]), 47 of 123 children (38.2%) were asymptomatic compared with 31 of 432 adults (7.2%). When symptomatic, fewer symptoms were reported in children compared with adults (mean [SD], 1.6 [2.0] vs 4.5 [3.1]). Symptomatic individuals had lower Ct values (which corresponded to higher viral RNA levels) than asymptomatic individuals (adjusted estimate for children, -3.0; 95% CI, -5.5 to -0.6; P = .02; adjusted estimate for adults, -2.9; 95% CI, -5.2 to -0.6; P = .01). The difference in mean Ct values was neither statistically significant between symptomatic children and symptomatic adults (adjusted estimate, -0.7; 95% CI, -2.2 to 0.9; P = .41) nor between asymptomatic children and asymptomatic adults (adjusted estimate, -0.6; 95% CI, -4.0 to 2.8; P = .74).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this community-based cross-sectional study, SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels, as determined by Ct values, were significantly higher in symptomatic individuals than in asymptomatic individuals and no significant age-related differences were found. Further research is needed to understand the role of SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and viral transmission.

Leveraging publicly available coronavirus data to identify new therapeutic targets for COVID-19

Many important questions remain regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the viral pathogen responsible for COVID-19. These questions include the mechanisms explaining the high percentage of asymptomatic but highly infectious individuals, the wide variability in disease susceptibility, and the mechanisms of long-lasting debilitating effects. Bioinformatic analysis of four coronavirus datasets representing previous outbreaks (SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV), as well as SARS-CoV-2, revealed evidence of diverse host factors that appear to be coopted to facilitate virus-induced suppression of interferon-induced innate immunity, promotion of viral replication and subversion and/or evasion of antiviral immune surveillance. These host factors merit further study given their postulated roles in COVID-19-induced loss of smell and brain, heart, vascular, lung, liver, and gut dysfunction.

Factors affecting duration of SARS-Cov-2 viral shedding in mildly symptomatic patients isolated in a community facility

Introduction

Mildly symptomatic cases of Covid-19 in previously-well individuals form the majority of infections and also serve as potent vectors of transmission. The factors affecting the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral shedding (DVS) in these patients remain largely unknown.

Objectives

To perform a systematic analysis of the clinical, radiologic, laboratory investigations in patients with few comorbidities infected with mild Covid-19 to identify factors associated with the DVS.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, patients with mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 were included. Baseline characteristics including age, nationality, comorbidities, concomitant medications, and type of isolation arrangement in the facility (single or in pairs) were collected. Clinical features and radiologic/haematologic findings were also collected. Taking day 28 as the cut-off, 187 patients who had a negative swab result up to day 28 (no prolonged DVS) were compared to 126 patients with a persistently positive result on or after day 28 (prolonged DVS).

Results

Of 964 consecutive patients included, 851 (88.3%) patients were symptomatic. 266 patients had a documented negative RT-PCR assay with a median DVS of 25 days (range: 13 to 96 days; interquartile range (IQR): 22 to 33 days). Patients isolated in pairs were associated with prolonged DVS (OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.7 to 4.5; p<0.0001) compared to those isolated individually. Among vital signs, only tachycardia was associated with prolonged DVS (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.0 to 7.1; p = 0.03). Amongst investigations, only a raised CRP was associated with prolonged DVS (OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.1 to 6.8; p = 0.02).

Conclusions

In young, mildly symptomatic Covid-19 patients, prolonged DVS was associated with being isolated in pairs compared to individually. In situations where a negative RT-PCR test result is required, retesting in patients who were not isolated individually, or who had baseline tachycardia or a raised CRP, may be delayed to increase the yield of a negative result.

SARS-CoV-2 mucosal antibody development and persistence and their relation to viral load and COVID-19 symptoms

Although serological studies have shown that antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 play an important role in protection against (re)infection, the dynamics of mucosal antibodies during primary infection and their potential impact on viral load and the resolution of disease symptoms remain unclear. During the first pandemic wave, we assessed the longitudinal nasal antibody response in index cases with mild COVID-19 and their household contacts. Nasal and serum antibody responses were analysed for up to nine months. Higher nasal receptor binding domain and spike protein-specific antibody levels at study inclusion were associated with lower viral load. Older age was correlated with more frequent COVID-19 related symptoms. Receptor binding domain and spike protein-specific mucosal antibodies were associated with the resolution of systemic, but not respiratory symptoms. Finally, receptor binding domain and spike protein-specific mucosal antibodies remained elevated up to nine months after symptom onset.

Performance of hospital-based contact tracing for COVID-19 during Australia's second wave

BACKGROUND

Hospital-based contact tracing aims to limit spread of COVID-19 within healthcare facilities. In large outbreaks, this can stretch resources and workforce due to quarantine of uninfected staff. We analysed the performance of a manual contact tracing system for healthcare workers (HCW) at a multi-site healthcare facility in Melbourne, Australia, from June-September 2020, during an epidemic of COVID-19.

METHODS

All HCW close contacts were quarantined for 14 days, and tested around day 11, if not already diagnosed with COVID-19. We examined the prevalence and timing of symptoms in cases detected during quarantine, described this group as proportions of all close contacts and of all cases, and used logistic regression to assess factors associated with infection.

RESULTS

COVID-19 was diagnosed during quarantine in 52 furloughed HCWs, from 483 quarantine episodes (11%), accounting for 19% (52/270) of total HCW cases. In 361 exposures to a clear index case, odds of infection were higher after contact with an infectious patient compared to an infectious HCW (aOR: 4.69, 95% CI: 1.98-12.14). Contact with cases outside the workplace increased odds of infection compared to workplace contact only (aOR: 7.70, 95% CI: 2.63-23.05). We estimated 30%, 78% and 95% of symptomatic cases would develop symptoms by days 3, 7, and 11 of quarantine, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In our setting, hospital-based contact tracing detected and contained a significant proportion of HCW cases, without excessive quarantine of uninfected staff. Effectiveness of contact tracing is determined by a range of dynamic factors, so system performance should be monitored in real-time.

Development of in-house, indirect ELISAs for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-associated serology in COVID-19 patients in Panama

COVID-19 is the name of the acute respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, a close relative of those that caused the severe outbreaks of SARS and MERS several years ago. Since first appearance on December of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has cause extremely high levels of mortality, morbidity, global economic breakdown, and the consequent human suffering. The main diagnostic test for the confirmation of symptomatic individuals is the detection of viral RNA by reverse transcriptase-quantitative real time PCR (RT-PCR). Additionally, serology techniques, such as ELISA are useful to measure the antibodies produced in humans after contact with the virus, as well as the direct presence of viral antigens. In this study we aim to assemble and evaluate four ELISA assays to measure the presence of IgG or IgM specific for the viral Spike protein in COVID-19 patients, using either the full recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein or the fragment corresponding to the receptor binding domain. As a control, we analyzed a group of pre-pandemic serum samples obtained before 2017. Strong reactivity was observed against both antigens. A few pre-pandemic samples displayed high OD values, suggesting the possibility of some cross reactivity. All four assays show very good repeatability, both intra- and inter-assay. Receiver operating characteristic analysis allowed the definition of cutoffs and evaluation of performance for each ELISA by estimation of the area under the curve. This performance parameter was high for all tests (AUC range: 0.98-0.99). Multiple comparisons between tests revealed no significant difference between each other (P values: 0.24-0.95). Our results show that both antigens are effective to detect both specific IgG and IgM antibodies, with high sensitivity (range 0.92-0.99), specificity (range 0.93-0.97) and congruence with the RT-PCR test (Cohen´s Kappa range 0.87-0.93). These assays will allow health authorities to have a new tool to estimate seroprevalence, in order to manage and improve the severe sanitary situation caused by this virus.

Clinical performance and accuracy of a qPCR-based SARS-CoV-2 mass-screening workflow for healthcare-worker surveillance using pooled self-sampled gargling solutions: A cross-sectional study

Introduction

The large number of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections necessitates general screening of employees. We evaluate the performance of a SARS-CoV-2 screening program in asymptomatic healthcare-workers (HCW), utilizing self-sampled gargling-solution and sample pooling for RT-qPCR.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study to collect real-life data on the performance of a screening-workflow based on automated-pooling and high-throughput qPCR testing over a 3-month-period at the University Hospital Hamburg.

Results

Matrix validation reveals that lower limit of detection for SARS-CoV-2 RNA in gargling-solution was 180 copies/mL (5-sample-pool). A total of 55,122 self-collected gargle samples (= 7513 HCWs) was analyzed. The median time to result was 8.5 hours (IQR 7.2–10.8). Of 11,192 pools analyzed, 11,041 (98.7%) were negative, 69 (0.6%) were positive and 82 (0.7%) were invalid. Individual testing of pool participants revealed 57 SARS-CoV-2 previously unrecognized infections. All 57 HCWs were either pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic (prevalence 0.76%,CI95%0.58–0.98%). Accuracy based on HCWs with gargle-solution and NP-swab available within 3-day-interval (N = 521) was 99.5% (CI95%98.3–99.9%), sensitivity 88.9% (CI95%65.3–98.6%) while specificity 99.8% (CI95%98.9–99.9).

Conclusion

This workflow was highly effective in identifying SARS-CoV-2 positive HCWs, thereby lowering the potential of inter-HCW and HCW-patient transmissions. Automated-sample-pooling helped to conserve qPCR reagents and represents a promising alternative strategy to antigen testing in mass-screening programs.

Initial Evaluation of a Mobile SARS-CoV-2 RT-LAMP Testing Strategy

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) control in the United States remains hampered, in part, by testing limitations. We evaluated a simple, outdoor, mobile, colorimetric reverse-transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay workflow where self-collected saliva is tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. From July 16, 2020, to November 19, 2020, surveillance samples (n = 4704) were collected from volunteers and tested for SARS-CoV-2 at 5 sites. Twenty-one samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-LAMP; 12 were confirmed positive by subsequent quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) testing, whereas 8 tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and 1 could not be confirmed because the donor did not consent to further molecular testing. We estimated the false-negative rate of the RT-LAMP assay only from July 16, 2020, to September 17, 2020 by pooling residual heat-inactivated saliva that was unambiguously negative by RT-LAMP into groups of 6 or fewer and testing for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by qRT-PCR. We observed a 98.8% concordance between the RT-LAMP and qRT-PCR assays, with only 5 of 421 RT-LAMP-negative pools (2493 total samples) testing positive in the more-sensitive qRT-PCR assay. Overall, we demonstrate a rapid testing method that can be implemented outside the traditional laboratory setting by individuals with basic molecular biology skills and that can effectively identify asymptomatic individuals who would not typically meet the criteria for symptom-based testing modalities.

A review of nasopharyngeal swab and saliva tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection: Disease timelines, relative sensitivities, and test optimization

Testing is an essential part of containment of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. This review summarizes studies for SARS-CoV-2 infection and testing. Nasopharyngeal samples are best at sensitivity detection, especially in early stages of disease and in asymptomatic individuals. Current swab processing involves a 100- to 1000-fold dilution of the patient sample. Future optimization of testing should focus on using smaller volumes of viral transport media and swab designs to increase comfort and increased viral adhesion.

Comparative performance of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow antigen tests and association with detection of infectious virus in clinical specimens: a single-centre laboratory evaluation study

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow devices (LFDs) for rapid antigen testing are set to become a cornerstone of SARS-CoV-2 mass community testing, although their reduced sensitivity compared with PCR has raised questions of how well they identify infectious cases. Understanding their capabilities and limitations is, therefore, essential for successful implementation. We evaluated six commercial LFDs and assessed their correlation with infectious virus culture and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values.

METHODS

In a single-centre, laboratory evaluation study, we did a head-to-head comparison of six LFDs commercially available in the UK: Innova Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Test, Spring Healthcare SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Test Cassette, E25Bio Rapid Diagnostic Test, Encode SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Test Device, SureScreen COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Test Cassette, and SureScreen COVID-19 Rapid Fluorescence Antigen Test. We estimated the specificities and sensitivities of the LFDs using stored naso-oropharyngeal swabs collected at St Thomas' Hospital (London, UK) for routine diagnostic SARS-CoV-2 testing by real-time RT-PCR (RT-rtPCR). Swabs were from inpatients and outpatients from all departments of St Thomas' Hospital, and from health-care staff (all departments) and their household contacts. SARS-CoV-2-negative swabs from the same population (confirmed by RT-rtPCR) were used for comparative specificity determinations. All samples were collected between March 23 and Oct 27, 2020. We determined the limit of detection (LOD) for each test using viral plaque-forming units (PFUs) and viral RNA copy numbers of laboratory-grown SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, LFDs were selected to assess the correlation of antigen test result with RT-rtPCR Ct values and positive viral culture in Vero E6 cells. This analysis included longitudinal swabs from five infected inpatients with varying disease severities. Furthermore, the sensitivities of available LFDs were assessed in swabs (n=23; collected from Dec 4, 2020, to Jan 12, 2021) confirmed to be positive (RT-rtPCR and whole-genome sequencing) for the B.1.1.7 variant, which was the dominant genotype in the UK at the time of study completion.

FINDINGS

All LFDs showed high specificity (≥98·0%), except for the E25Bio test (86·0% [95% CI 77·9-99·9]), and most tests reliably detected 50 PFU/test (equivalent SARS-CoV-2 N gene Ct value of 23·7, or RNA copy number of 3 × 106/mL). Sensitivities of the LFDs on clinical samples ranged from 65·0% (55·2-73·6) to 89·0% (81·4-93·8). These sensitivities increased to greater than 90% for samples with Ct values of lower than 25 for all tests except the SureScreen fluorescence (SureScreen-F) test. Positive virus culture was identified in 57 (40·4%) of 141 samples; 54 (94·7%) of the positive cultures were from swabs with Ct values lower than 25. Among the three LFDs selected for detailed comparisons (the tests with highest sensitivity [Innova], highest specificity [Encode], and alternative technology [SureScreen-F]), sensitivity of the LFDs increased to at least 94·7% when only including samples with detected viral growth. Longitudinal studies of RT-rtPCR-positive samples (tested with Innova, Encode, and both SureScreen-F and the SureScreen visual [SureScreen-V] test) showed that most of the tests identified all infectious samples as positive. Test performance (assessed for Innova and SureScreen-V) was not affected when reassessed on swabs positive for the UK variant B.1.1.7.

INTERPRETATION

In this comprehensive comparison of antigen LFDs and virus infectivity, we found a clear relationship between Ct values, quantitative culture of infectious virus, and antigen LFD positivity in clinical samples. Our data support regular testing of target groups with LFDs to supplement the current PCR testing capacity, which would help to rapidly identify infected individuals in situations in which they would otherwise go undetected.

FUNDING

King's Together Rapid COVID-19, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Huo Family Foundation, UK Department of Health, National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre.

High proportion of low cycle threshold value as an early indicator of COVID-19 surge

Many countries in the world are experiencing a recent surge in COVID‐19 cases. This is mainly attributed to the emergence of new SARS‐CoV‐2 variants. Genome sequencing is the only means to detect the evolving virus mutants and emerging variants. Cycle threshold values have an inverse relationship with viral load and lower Ct values are also found to be associated with increased infectivity. In this study, we propose to use Ct values as an early indicator for upcoming COVID‐19 waves. A retrospective cross‐sectional study was carried out to analyze the Ct values of positive samples reported during the first wave and second wave (April 2020–May 2021). Median Ct values of confirmatory genes were taken into consideration for comparison. Ct values below 25, >25–30, and >30 were categorized as high, moderate, and low viral load respectively. Our study found a significantly higher proportion of positive samples with a low Ct value (<25) across age groups and gender during the second wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic. A higher proportion of positive samples with a low Ct value (high viral load) may act as an early indicator of an upcoming surge.

A surge in COVID‐19 cases is predominantly due to emergence of new SARS‐CoV‐2 variants.

Cycle threshold values have an inverse relationship with viral load and also associated with infectivity.

Our study found a significantly higher proportion of positive samples with low Ct value (<25) across age groups and gender during the second wave of COVID‐19 pandemic.

Higher proportion of positive samples with low Ct value (high viral load) may act as an early indicator of an upcoming surge.

Time to resolution of infection in COVID-19 patients: the experience of a tertiary medical center in Israel

With the coronavirus disease spreading, reports indicated that young patients are usually asymptomatic with a short convalescence period. The current study compares the time to resolution of infection in symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients. Seventy- six patients aged 44.4±23.3 years were admitted to the COVID-19 Unit during the study period. Data was collected from patients' records. Throat and nasal swabs for the RT-PCR COVID-19 were collected. Time to resolution of infection was defined as the number of days from the date of the first COVID-19 positive outcome to the second consecutive negative PCR results. Most patients showed between 1-6 COVID-19 signs and symptoms (71.1%) and the rest were asymptomatic. No association was found between the time to resolution of infection and the presence of COVID-19 signs and symptoms (symptomatic: Md 10.0 95% CI 8.4-11.6; asymptomatic: Md 15.0 95% CI 10.5-15.5; p=0.54). Age was not correlated with the number of COVID-19 signs and symptoms (r=0.13, p=0.37) and with the time to resolution of infection (r=0.06, p=0.58). In mild to moderate symptomatic patients, the time to resolution of infection from COVID-19 is not different from asymptomatic patients.

Correlation of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Different Population Subsets: A Study from a Tertiary Care North Indian Hospital

Background

The correlation of SARS-CoV-2 viral load with disease severity in different population subsets is still elusive. There is a scarcity of literature regarding this aspect in Indian Population.

Aim

To study retrospectively the risk factors and the role of viral load with disease severity among different age groups of North Indian population.

Methods

Here we quantified the viral load of 239 positive participants and collected data retrospectively from April 2020 to May 2020 and categorised the patients as per disease severity and population subsets.

Results

Asymptomatic patients were found to have higher viral load than the symptomatic patients, though the difference was not found to be statistically significant. The logistic regression analysis showed that contact with laboratory confirmed cases, SARI and ILI were independent risk factors for acquiring COVID-19 infection.

Conclusion

SARS-CoV-2 viral load is not significantly associated with disease severity among different population subsets. However, there is a need to carry out more studies with a larger number of patients to validate and confirm the above findings.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 antigen electrochemiluminescence immunoassay to RT-PCR assay for laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19 in Peshawar

OBJECTIVES

Antigen based rapid diagnostic tests possesses a potential to be utilized along with Gold standard methods to detect Covid-19 infection to cope with the demand of testing. The aim of this study was to determine diagnostic accuracy of electrochemiluminescence based automated antigen detection immunoassay comparing with molecular based test RT-PCR (Covid-19).

METHODS

It was a cross-sectional study conducted in RMI Peshawar, from 1st April 2021 till 30th April 2021. The study comprised 170 individuals who were suspected of having Covid-19. Nasopharyngeal samples taken from suspected individuals were analyzed by RT-PCR and automated antigen test (Elecsys SARS-CoV-2 Antigen) simultaneously. The correlation of SARS-CoV-2 antigen with PCR positive and negative cases was analyzed for specificity, sensitivity respectively.

RESULTS

The ECLIA based Elecsys antigen test (Roche) revealed overall sensitivity 72%, specificity 95% and accuracy of 94.9%. Sensitivity of antigen test progressively declined from 94.3% in Ct <25 to 70.8% in Ct 26-29 and then to 47.2% in Ct 30-35.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the findings of our study we conclude that automated antigen testing (Elecsys SARS-CoV-2 Antigen) cannot replace molecular based testing like RT PCR. Elecsys SARS-CoV-2 Ag test should be used complementary to RT-PCR in testing algorithms. Frequent testing strategy should be adopted while using automated antigen testing to overcome its limitation in individuals with low viral loads.

Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic

We propose a way to model the underdetection of infected and removed individuals in a compartmental model for estimating the COVID-19 epidemic. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse data from the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. We find that a correct assessment of the amount of underdetection is important to obtain reliable estimates of the critical model parameters. The adaptation of the model in each time interval between relevant government decrees implementing contagion mitigation measures provides short-term predictions and a continuously updated assessment of the basic reproduction number.

Asymptomatic COVID-19 in the elderly: dementia and viral clearance as risk factors for disease progression

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals ≥60 years old have the highest hospitalization rates and represent >80% fatalities. Within this population, those in long-term facilities represent >50% of the total COVID-19 related deaths per country. Among those without symptoms, the rate of pre-symptomatic illness is unclear, and potential predictors of progression for symptom development are unknown. Our objective was to delineate the natural evolution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in elders and identify determinants of progression.

METHODS

We established a medical surveillance team monitoring 63 geriatric institutions. When an index COVID-19 case emerged, we tested all other eligible asymptomatic elders ≥75 or >60 years old with at least 1 comorbidity. SARS-CoV-2 infected elders were followed for 28 days. Disease was diagnosed when any COVID-19 manifestation occurred. SARS-CoV-2 load at enrollment, shedding on day 15, and antibody responses were also studied.

RESULTS

After 28 days of follow-up, 74/113(65%) SARS-CoV-2-infected elders remained asymptomatic. 21/39(54%) pre-symptomatic patients developed hypoxemia and ten pre-symptomatic patients died(median day 13.5,IQR 12). Dementia was the only clinical risk factor associated with disease(OR 2.41(95%CI=1.08, 5.39). In a multivariable logistic regression model, dementia remained as a risk factor for COVID-19 severe disease. Furthermore, dementia status showed a statistically significant different trend when assessing the cumulative probability of developing COVID-19 symptoms(log-rank p=0.027). On day 15, SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in 30% of the asymptomatic group while in 61% of the pre-symptomatic(p=0.012). No differences were observed among groups in RT-PCR mean cycle threshold at enrollment(p=0.391) and in the rates of antibody seropositivity(IgM and IgG against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein).

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, 2/3 of our cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected elders from vulnerable communities in Argentina remained asymptomatic after 28 days of follow-up with high mortality among those developing symptoms. Dementia and persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding were associated with progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic infection.

Role of Rapid Antigen Testing in Population-Based SARS-CoV-2 Screening

This study evaluates a population-based screening of asymptomatic people, using a rapid antigen diagnostic test (RADT), in areas of high transmission. To detect sources of SARS-CoV-2 infection, nasopharyngeal samples were taken and were tested using RADT. Confirmatory RT-qPCR tests were performed in both positive and negative cases. The internal validity of the RADT, the prevalence of infection, and the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were estimated, based on the percentages of confirmed cases with 95% confidence interval. Of the 157,920 people registered, 50,492 participated in the screening; 50,052 were negative, and 440 were positive on the RADT (0.87%). A total of 221 positive RADT samples were reanalysed using RT-qPCR and 214 were confirmed as positive (96.8%; 95% CI: 93.5-98.7%), while 657 out of 660 negative RADT samples were confirmed as RT-qPCR negative (99.5%; 95% CI 98.7-99.9%). The sensitivity obtained was 65.1% (38.4-90.2%) and the specificity was 99.97% (99.94-99.99%). The prevalence of infection was 1.30% (0.95-2.13%). The PPVs were 95.4% (85.9-98.9%) and 97.9% (93.3-99.5%), respectively, while the NPVs were 99.7% (99.4-100%) and 99.2% (98.7-100%), respectively. The high specificity found allow us to report a high screening performance in asymptomatic patients, even in areas where the prevalence of infection was less than 2%.

Hyperspectral Mapping for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Using Nanomolecular Probes with Yoctomole Sensitivity

Efficient monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak requires the use of a sensitive and rapid diagnostic test. Although SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected by RT-qPCR, the molecular-level quantification of the viral load is still challenging, time-consuming, and labor-intensive. Here, we report an ultrasensitive hyperspectral sensor (HyperSENSE) based on hafnium nanoparticles (HfNPs) for specific detection of COVID-19 causative virus, SARS-CoV-2. Density functional theoretical calculations reveal that HfNPs exhibit higher changes in their absorption wavelength and light scattering when bound to their target SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequence relative to the gold nanoparticles. The assay has a turnaround time of a few seconds and has a limit of detection in the yoctomolar range, which is 1 000 000-fold times higher than the currently available COVID-19 tests. We demonstrated in ∼100 COVID-19 clinical samples that the assay is highly sensitive and has a specificity of 100%. We also show that HyperSENSE can rapidly detect other viruses such as influenza A H1N1. The outstanding sensitivity indicates the potential of the current biosensor in detecting the prevailing presymptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. Thus, integrating hyperspectral imaging with nanomaterials establishes a diagnostic platform for ultrasensitive detection of COVID-19 that can potentially be applied to any emerging infectious pathogen.

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 molecular test sensitivity by specimen types in a large sample of emergency department patients

BACKGROUND

Provider-collected nasopharyngeal specimens for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) molecular testing are the standard of care in many clinical settings, but patient-collected saliva and anterior nares specimens are less invasive and more flexible alternatives. Prior studies comparing specimen types for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing have been limited by small sample sizes and low pretest probability. We conducted a large observational study among symptomatic adults at 7 emergency departments of Kaiser Permanente Southern California to examine sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests by specimen type and patient characteristics.

METHODS

Provider-collected nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) specimens and patient-collected saliva and anterior nares specimens were collected at the same visit and analyzed with the Roche cobas® SARS-CoV-2 assay. Patients were considered truly positive for SARS-CoV-2 if any of the three specimens was positive and negative if all three specimens were negative. Factors associated with discordant and missed positive results were examined with multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 2112 patients, 350 (16.6%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Sensitivity of NP/OP was 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90.6%-96.0%), sensitivity of saliva was 87.7% (83.8%-91.0%), and sensitivity of anterior nares was 85.4% (81.3%-89.0%). Patients ages 18-39 years versus ≥40 years were more likely to have discordant results [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.97 (1.12-3.45)], as were patients with <4 symptoms versus ≥4 [aOR 2.43 (1.39-4.25)]. Cycle threshold values were higher for saliva and anterior nares than NP/OP specimens, as well as for specimens in discordant versus concordant sets and patients with fewer symptoms.

CONCLUSION

This study provides robust evidence that patient-collected saliva and anterior nares are sensitive for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing in emergency department settings, particularly among adults ages ≥40 years and those with multiple symptoms. Higher sensitivity of provider-collected NP/OP specimens must be weighed against the benefits of patient-collected specimens in tailored strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Medical Institution Faculty and Healthcare Workers in Tokyo, Japan

Objective To consider effective measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in medical institutions, this study estimated the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Tokyo, Japan, and determined the specific findings for mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Methods This study analyzed the results of serologic tests to detect immunoglobulin G antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and evaluated the demographic and clinical characteristics of the faculty and HCWs at a Tokyo medical institution in August 2020. The demographic and clinical characteristics of participants with antibody-positive results were compared to those of participants with antibody-negative results. Materials This study recruited 2,341 faculty and HCWs at a Tokyo medical institution, 21 of whom had a COVID-19 history. Results Of the 2,320 participants without a COVID-19 history, 20 (0.862%) had positive serologic test results. A fever and dysgeusia or dysosmia occurred with greater frequency among the participants with positive test results than in those with negative results [odds ratio (OR), 5.475; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.960-15.293 and OR, 24.158; 95% CI, 2.693-216.720, respectively]. No significant difference was observed in the positivity rate between HCWs providing medical care for COVID-19 patients using adequate protection and other HCWs (OR, 2.514; 95% CI, 0.959-6.588). Conclusion To reduce the risk of COVID-19 spread in medical institutions, faculty and HCWs should follow standard and necessary transmission-based precautions, and those with a fever and dysgeusia or dysosmia should excuse themselves from work as soon as possible.

Upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads in symptomatic and asymptomatic children and adults

OBJECTIVES

Studies comparing SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in the upper respiratory tract (URT) between children and adults, either presenting with COVID-19 or asymptomatic have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we conducted a retrospective, single center study to address this issue.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

1,184 consecutive subjects (256 children and 928 adults) testing positive for SARS-COV-2 RNA in nasopharyngeal exudates (NP), of whom 424 (121 children and 303 adults) had COVID-19 and 760 (135 children and 625 adults) were asymptomatic close contacts of COVID-19 patients. SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing was carried out using the TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific, MS, USA). The AMPLIRUN® TOTAL SARS-CoV-2 RNA Control (Vircell SA, Granada, Spain) was used for estimating SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads (in copies/mL). SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads at the time of laboratory diagnosis (single specimen/patient) were used for comparison purposes.

RESULTS

Median initial SARS-COV-2 RNA load was lower (P=0.094) in children (6.98 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 3.0-11.7) than in adults (7.14 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 2.2.-13.4) with COVID-19. As for asymptomatic individuals, median SARS-CoV-2 RNA load was comparable (P=0.97) in children (6.20 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.8-11.6) and adults (6.48 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.9-11.8). Children with COVID-19 symptoms displayed SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads (6.98 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 3.0-11.7) comparable to their asymptomatic counterparts (6.20 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.8-11.6) (P=0.61). Meanwhile in adults, median SARS-CoV-2 RNA load was significantly higher in symptomatic (7.14 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 2.2.-13.4) than in asymptomatic subjects (6.48 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.9-11.8) (P=<0.001). Overall, a faster URT SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance rate was observed in children than in adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on viral load data at the time of diagnosis, our results suggested that SARS-CoV-2 infected children, with or without COVID-19, may display NP viral loads of comparable magnitude to that found in their adult counterparts; However, children may have shorter viral shedding as compared to adults.

A novel RNA detection technique for point-of-care identification of pathogens

Despite significant progress in recent years to improve capabilities to diagnose infections at point-of-care (POC), there are still technical hurdles that need to be overcome to ensure proper medical interventions. Current microbial POC tests involve polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or sandwich immunoassay (IA) based detection formats. PCR is highly sensitive but requires complex instrumentation, whereas lateral flow (LF) based IA tests are handheld but lack sensitivity. We present here a portable and sensitive technique by integrating an isothermal RNA amplification approach with IA detection format. The technique comprises i) Nucleic Acid Sequence Based isothermal Amplification (NASBA), ii) amplicon tagging with hapten labeled probes, iii) capturing the amplicon and iv) formation of a sandwich complex with an antibody (Ab) that selectively recognizes the DNA-RNA duplex. The results can be extended to develop an automated, portable and highly sensitive diagnostic platform suitable for POC applications.

Community Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Disproportionately Affects the Latinx Population During Shelter-in-Place in San Francisco

Background

There is urgent need to understand the dynamics and risk factors driving ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission during shelter-in-place mandates.

Methods

We offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-PCR and antibody (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG) testing, regardless of symptoms, to all residents (≥4 years) and workers in a San Francisco census tract (population: 5,174) at outdoor, community-mobilized events over four days. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 point prevalence (PCR-positive) and cumulative incidence (antibody or PCR-positive) in the census tract and evaluated risk factors for recent (PCR-positive/antibody-negative) versus prior infection (antibody-positive/PCR-negative). SARS-CoV-2 genome recovery and phylogenetics were used to measure viral strain diversity, establish viral lineages present, and estimate number of introductions.

Results

We tested 3,953 persons: 40% Latinx; 41% White; 9% Asian/Pacific Islander; and 2% Black. Overall, 2.1% (83/3,871) tested PCR-positive: 95% were Latinx and 52% asymptomatic when tested. 1.7% of census tract residents and 6.0% of workers (non-census tract residents) were PCR-positive. Among 2,598 tract residents, estimated point prevalence of PCR-positives was 2.3% (95%CI: 1.2-3.8%): 3.9% (95%CI: 2.0-6.4%) among Latinx vs. 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.4%) among non-Latinx persons. Estimated cumulative incidence among residents was 6.1% (95%CI: 4.0-8.6%). Prior infections were 67% Latinx, 16% White, and 17% other ethnicities. Among recent infections, 96% were Latinx. Risk factors for recent infection were Latinx ethnicity, inability to shelter-in-place and maintain income, frontline service work, unemployment, and household income &$50,000/year. Five SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic lineages were detected.

Conclusion

SARS-CoV-2 infections from diverse lineages continued circulating among low-income, Latinx persons unable to work from home and maintain income during San Francisco’s shelter-in-place ordinance.

Differential Kinetics of Cycle Threshold Values during Admission by Symptoms among Patients with Mild COVID-19: A Prospective Cohort Study

In the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, more than half of the cases of transmission may occur via asymptomatic individuals, which makes it difficult to contain. However, whether viral load in the throat during admission is different between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients is not well known. By conducting a prospective cohort study of patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19, cycle threshold (Ct) values of the polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19 were examined every other day during admission. The Ct values during admission increased more steadily in symptomatic patients and febrile patients than in asymptomatic patients, with significance (p = 0.01 and p = 0.004, respectively), although the Ct values as a whole were not significantly different between the two groups. Moreover, the Ct values as a whole were higher in patients with dysosmia/dysgeusia than in those without it (p = 0.02), whereas they were lower in patients with a headache than those without (p = 0.01). Patients who were IgG-positive at discharge maintained higher Ct values, e.g., more than 35, during admission than those with IgG-negative (p = 0.03). Assuming that viral load and Ct values are negatively associated, the viral loads as a whole and their changes by time may be different by symptoms and immune reaction, i.e., IgG-positive at discharge.

Accuracy of novel antigen rapid diagnostics for SARS-CoV-2: A living systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) are increasingly being integrated in testing strategies around the world. Studies of the Ag-RDTs have shown variable performance. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed the clinical accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) of commercially available Ag-RDTs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We registered the review on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42020225140). We systematically searched multiple databases (PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, medRvix, bioRvix, and FIND) for publications evaluating the accuracy of Ag-RDTs for SARS-CoV-2 up until 30 April 2021. Descriptive analyses of all studies were performed, and when more than 4 studies were available, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity in comparison to reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. We assessed heterogeneity by subgroup analyses, and rated study quality and risk of bias using the QUADAS-2 assessment tool. From a total of 14,254 articles, we included 133 analytical and clinical studies resulting in 214 clinical accuracy datasets with 112,323 samples. Across all meta-analyzed samples, the pooled Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 71.2% (95% CI 68.2% to 74.0%) and 98.9% (95% CI 98.6% to 99.1%), respectively. Sensitivity increased to 76.3% (95% CI 73.1% to 79.2%) if analysis was restricted to studies that followed the Ag-RDT manufacturers' instructions. LumiraDx showed the highest sensitivity, with 88.2% (95% CI 59.0% to 97.5%). Of instrument-free Ag-RDTs, Standard Q nasal performed best, with 80.2% sensitivity (95% CI 70.3% to 87.4%). Across all Ag-RDTs, sensitivity was markedly better on samples with lower RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values, i.e., <20 (96.5%, 95% CI 92.6% to 98.4%) and <25 (95.8%, 95% CI 92.3% to 97.8%), in comparison to those with Ct ≥ 25 (50.7%, 95% CI 35.6% to 65.8%) and ≥30 (20.9%, 95% CI 12.5% to 32.8%). Testing in the first week from symptom onset resulted in substantially higher sensitivity (83.8%, 95% CI 76.3% to 89.2%) compared to testing after 1 week (61.5%, 95% CI 52.2% to 70.0%). The best Ag-RDT sensitivity was found with anterior nasal sampling (75.5%, 95% CI 70.4% to 79.9%), in comparison to other sample types (e.g., nasopharyngeal, 71.6%, 95% CI 68.1% to 74.9%), although CIs were overlapping. Concerns of bias were raised across all datasets, and financial support from the manufacturer was reported in 24.1% of datasets. Our analysis was limited by the included studies' heterogeneity in design and reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study we found that Ag-RDTs detect the vast majority of SARS-CoV-2-infected persons within the first week of symptom onset and those with high viral load. Thus, they can have high utility for diagnostic purposes in the early phase of disease, making them a valuable tool to fight the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Standardization in conduct and reporting of clinical accuracy studies would improve comparability and use of data.

Modeling of network based digital contact tracing and testing strategies, including the pre-exposure notification system, for the COVID-19 pandemic

With more than 1.7 million COVID-19 deaths, identifying effective measures to prevent COVID-19 is a top priority. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic with digital contact tracing and testing strategies. The model uses a real-world social network generated from a high-resolution contact data set of 180 students. This model incorporates infectivity variations, test sensitivities, incubation period, and asymptomatic cases. We present a method to extend the weighted temporal social network and present simulations on a network of 5000 students. The purpose of this work is to investigate optimal quarantine rules and testing strategies with digital contact tracing. The results show that the traditional strategy of quarantining direct contacts reduces infections by less than 20% without sufficient testing. Periodic testing every 2 weeks without contact tracing reduces infections by less than 3%. A variety of strategies are discussed including testing second and third degree contacts and the pre-exposure notification system, which acts as a social radar warning users how far they are from COVID-19. The most effective strategy discussed in this work was combining the pre-exposure notification system with testing second and third degree contacts. This strategy reduces infections by 18.3% when 30% of the population uses the app, 45.2% when 50% of the population uses the app, 72.1% when 70% of the population uses the app, and 86.8% when 95% of the population uses the app. When simulating the model on an extended network of 5000 students, the results are similar with the contact tracing app reducing infections by up to 79%.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in asymptomatic populations using the DiaSorin molecular Simplexa and Roche Cobas EUA assays

Identification of asymptomatic patients is necessary to control the COVID-19 pandemic and testing is one of the measures to detect this population. We evaluated the clinical correlation of the DiaSorin Molecular Simplexa COVID-19 Direct (DiaSorin Molecular) and Roche Cobas 6800 SARS-CoV-2 (Roche) assays using 253 oropharyngeal (OP) swab specimens collected from asymptomatic patients. Agreement between DiaSorin Molecular and Roche was 97% (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99), with a κ statistic of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.83 to 0.97) and a PPA of 89% (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.96) and NPA of 99% (95% CI, 0.97 to 0.99). Simple regression analysis of Ct values revealed a regression line of y = 1.065*X - 5.537 with a Pearson's r of 0.8542, indicating a good correlation between both platforms. The DiaSorin Molecular assay demonstrates clinical performance comparable to that of Roche in this population.

The potential of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection tests in the screening of asymptomatic persons

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to assess the performance of antigen-based rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) for SARS CoV-2 when implemented for large-scale universal screening of asymptomatic individuals.

METHODS

This study was a pragmatic implementation study for universal Ag-RDT-based screening at a tertiary care hospital in Germany where patients presenting for elective procedures and selected personnel without symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 were screened with an Ag-RDT since October 2020. Test performance was calculated on an individual patient level.

RESULTS

In total, 49 542 RDTs were performed in 27 421 asymptomatic individuals over a duration of 5 and a half months. Out of 222 positive results, 196 underwent in-house confirmatory testing with PCR, out of which 170 were confirmed positive, indicating a positive predictive value of 86.7% (95% CI 81.2-91.1%). Negative Ag-RDTs were not routinely tested with PCR, but a total of 94 cases of false negative Ag-RDTs were detected due to PCR tests being performed within the following 5 days with a median cycle threshold value of 33 (IQR 29-35).

DISCUSSION

This study provides evidence that Ag-RDTs can have a high diagnostic yield for transmission relevant infections with limited false positives when utilized at the point of care on asymptomatic patients and thus can be a suitable public health test for universal screening.

Isolation thresholds for curbing SARS-CoV-2 resurgence

Self-instigated isolation is heavily relied on to curb severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Accounting for uncertainty in the latent and prepatent periods, as well as the proportion of infections that remain asymptomatic, the limits of this intervention at different phases of infection resurgence are estimated. We show that by October 2020, SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates in England had already begun exceeding levels that could be interrupted using this intervention alone, lending support to the second national lockdown on 5th November 2020.

Self-collected oral, nasal and saliva samples yield sensitivity comparable to professionally collected oro-nasopharyngeal swabs in SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis among symptomatic outpatients

Introduction

Containing COVID-19 requires broad-scale testing. However, sample collection requires qualified personnel and protective equipment and may cause transmission. We assessed the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2-rtPCR applying three self-sampling techniques as compared to professionally collected oro-nasopharyngeal samples (cOP/NP).

Methods

From 62 COVID-19 outpatients, we obtained: (i) multi-swab, MS; (ii) saliva sponge combined with nasal vestibula, SN; (iii) gargled water, GW; (iv) professionally collected cOP/NP (standard). We compared ct-values for E-gene and ORF1ab and analysed variables reducing sensitivity of self-collecting procedures.

Results

The median ct-values for E-gene and ORF1ab obtained in cOP/NP samples were 20.7 and 20.2, in MS samples 22.6 and 21.8, in SN samples 23.3 and 22.3, and in GW samples 30.3 and 29.8, respectively. MS and SN samples showed sensitivities of 95.2% (95%CI, 86.5-99.0) and GW samples of 88.7% (78.1-95.3). Sensitivity was inversely correlated with ct-values, and became <90% for samples obtained more than 8 days after symptom onset. For MS and SN samples, false negativity was associated with language problems, sampling errors, and symptom duration.

Conclusion

Conclusions from this study are limited to the sensitivity of self-sampling in mildly to moderately symptomatic patients. Still, self-collected oral/nasal/saliva samples can facilitate up-scaling of testing in early symptomatic COVID-19 patients if operational errors are minimized.

The impact of digital contact tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic-a comprehensive modelling study

Contact tracing is one of several strategies employed in many countries to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Digital contact tracing (DCT) uses tools such as cell-phone applications to improve tracing speed and reach. We model the impact of DCT on the spread of the virus for a large epidemiological parameter space consistent with current literature on SARS-CoV-2. We also model DCT in combination with random testing (RT) and social distancing (SD). Modelling is done with two independently developed individual-based (stochastic) models that use the Monte Carlo technique, benchmarked against each other and against two types of deterministic models. For current best estimates of the number of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers (approximately 40%), their contagiousness (similar to that of symptomatic carriers), the reproductive number before interventions ( R 0 at least 3) we find that DCT must be combined with other interventions such as SD and/or RT to push the reproductive number below one. At least 60% of the population would have to use the DCT system for its effect to become significant. On its own, DCT cannot bring the reproductive number below 1 unless nearly the entire population uses the DCT system and follows quarantining and testing protocols strictly. For lower uptake of the DCT system, DCT still reduces the number of people that become infected. When DCT is deployed in a population with an ongoing outbreak where O (0.1%) of the population have already been infected, the gains of the DCT intervention come at the cost of requiring up to 15% of the population to be quarantined (in response to being traced) on average each day for the duration of the epidemic, even when there is sufficient testing capability to test every traced person.

Exploring secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic cases using contact tracing data

Background

Individuals with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can propagate the virus unknowingly and thus have been a focus of public health attentions since the early stages of the pandemic. Understanding viral transmissibility among asymptomatic individuals is critical for successful control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study aimed to understand SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility among young asymptomatic individuals and to assess whether symptomatology was associated with transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections.

Methods

We analyzed one of the first-identified clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infections with multiple chains of transmission that occurred among university students in March 2020 in Kyoto prefecture, Japan, using discrete and two-type branching process models. Assuming that the number of secondary cases resulting from either primary symptomatic or asymptomatic cases independently followed negative binomial distributions, we estimated the relative reproduction numbers of an asymptomatic case compared with a symptomatic case. To explore the potential association between symptomatology and transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic incident infections, we also estimated the proportion of secondary symptomatic cases produced by primary symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

Results

The reproduction number for a symptomatic primary case was estimated at 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61–2.09). The relative reproduction number for asymptomatic cases was estimated at 0.19 (95% CI: 0.03–0.66), indicating that asymptomatic primary cases did not result in sufficient numbers of secondary infections to maintain chains of transmission. There was no apparent tendency for symptomatic primary cases to preferentially produce symptomatic secondary cases.

Conclusions

Using data from a transmission network during the early epidemic in Japan, we successfully estimated the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection at 0.22. These results suggest that contract tracing focusing on symptomatic index cases may be justified given limited testing capacity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12976-021-00144-z.

Laboratory Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia

The emergence and rapid proliferation of Coronavirus Disease-2019, throughout the past year, has put an unprecedented strain on the global schema of health infrastructure and health economy. The time-sensitive agenda of identifying the virus in humans and delivering a vaccine to the public constituted an effort to flatten the statistical curve of viral spread as it grew exponentially. At the forefront of this effort was an exigency of developing rapid and accurate diagnostic strategies. These have emerged in various forms over the past year—each with strengths and weaknesses. To date, they fall into three categories: (1) those isolating and replicating viral RNA in patient samples from the respiratory tract (Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests; NAATs), (2) those detecting the presence of viral proteins (Rapid Antigen Tests; RATs) and serology-based exams identifying antibodies to the virus in whole blood and serum. The latter vary in their detection of immunoglobulins of known prevalence in early-stage and late-stage infection. With this review, we delineate the categories of testing measures developed to date, analyze the efficacy of collecting patient specimens from diverse regions of the respiratory tract, and present the up and coming technologies which have made pathogen identification easier and more accessible to the public.

20-Week Study of Clinical Outcomes of Over-the-Counter COVID-19 Prophylaxis and Treatment

Objectives and Setting.

As the lethal COVID-19 pandemic enters its second year, the need for effective modalities of alleviation remains urgent. This includes modalities that can readily be used by the public to reduce disease spread and severity. Such preventive measures and early-stage treatments may temper the immediacy of demand for advanced anti-COVID measures (drugs, antibodies, vaccines) and help relieve strain also on other health system resources.

Design and Participants.

We present results of a clinical study with a multi-component OTC “core formulation” regimen used in a multiply exposed adult population. Analysis of clinical outcome data from our sample of over 100 subjects − comprised of roughly equal sized regimen-compliant (test) and non-compliant (control) groups meeting equivalent inclusion criteria − demonstrates a strong statistical significance in favor of use of the core formulations.

Results.

While both groups were moderate in size, the difference between them in outcomes over the 20-week study period was large and stark: Just under 4% of the compliant test group presented flu-like symptoms, but none of the test group was COVID-positive; whereas 20% of the non-compliant control group presented flu-like symptoms, three-quarters of whom (15% overall of the control group) were COVID-positive.

Conclusions.

Offering a low cost, readily implemented anti-viral approach, the study regimen may serve, at the least, as a stopgap modality and, perhaps, as a useful tool in combatting the pandemic.

Cross-sectional assessment of SARS-CoV-2 viral load by symptom status in Massachusetts congregate living facilities

Transmission of COVID-19 from people without symptoms confounds societal mitigation strategies. From April to June 2020, we tested nasopharyngeal swabs by RT-qPCR from 15,514 staff and 16,966 residents of nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Massachusetts. Cycle threshold (Ct) distributions were very similar between populations with (N = 739) and without (N = 2179) symptoms at the time of sampling (mean Ct 25.7 versus 26.4, ranges 12-38). However, as local cases waned, those without symptoms shifted towards higher Ct. With such similar viral load distributions, existing testing modalities should perform comparably regardless of symptoms, contingent upon time since infection.

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background

Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load).

Methods

We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression.

Results

Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9-32.8, 14-56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative.

Conclusions

Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator.

Funding

Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust.

Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 testing for rapid diagnosis of COVID-19 during the initial stages of a global pandemic

Accurate SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis is essential to guide prevention and control of COVID-19. Here we examine SARS-CoV-2 molecular-based test performance characteristics and summarize case-level data related to COVID-19 diagnosis. From January 11 through April 22, 2020, Public Health Ontario conducted SARS-CoV-2 testing of 86,942 specimens collected from 80,354 individuals, primarily using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) methods. We analyzed test results across specimen types and for individuals with multiple same-day and multi-day collected specimens. Nasopharyngeal compared to throat swabs had a higher positivity (8.8% vs. 4.8%) and an adjusted estimate 2.9 C_t lower (SE = 0.5, p<0.001). Same-day specimens showed high concordance (98.8%), and the median C_t of multi-day specimens increased over time. Symptomatic cases had rRT-PCR results with an adjusted estimate 3.0 C_t (SE = 0.5, p<0.001) lower than asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic cases. Overall test sensitivity was 84.6%, with a negative predictive value of 95.5%. Molecular testing is the mainstay of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and testing protocols will continue to be dynamic and iteratively modified as more is learned about this emerging pathogen.

Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course

Two elementary parameters for quantifying viral infection and shedding are viral load and whether samples yield a replicating virus isolate in cell culture. We examined 25,381 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany, including 6110 from test centers attended by presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic (PAMS) subjects, 9519 who were hospitalized, and 1533 B.1.1.7 lineage infections. The viral load of the youngest subjects was lower than that of the older subjects by 0.5 (or fewer) log10 units, and they displayed an estimated ~78% of the peak cell culture replication probability; in part this was due to smaller swab sizes and unlikely to be clinically relevant. Viral loads above 109 copies per swab were found in 8% of subjects, one-third of whom were PAMS, with a mean age of 37.6 years. We estimate 4.3 days from onset of shedding to peak viral load (108.1 RNA copies per swab) and peak cell culture isolation probability (0.75). B.1.1.7 subjects had mean log10 viral load 1.05 higher than that of non-B.1.1.7 subjects, and the estimated cell culture replication probability of B.1.1.7 subjects was higher by a factor of 2.6.

Comparative Characterization and Risk Stratification of Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Patients With COVID-19

The identification of asymptomatic, non-severe presymptomatic, and severe presymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients may help optimize risk-stratified clinical management and improve prognosis. This single-center case series from Wuhan Huoshenshan Hospital, China, included 2,980 patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized between February 4, 2020 and April 10, 2020. Patients were diagnosed as asymptomatic (n = 39), presymptomatic (n = 34), and symptomatic (n = 2,907) upon admission. This study provided an overview of asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and symptomatic COVID-19 patients, including detection, demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. Upon admission, there was no significant difference in clinical symptoms and CT image between asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients for diagnosis reference. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the differential diagnosis model to discriminate presymptomatic patients from asymptomatic patients was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.81-0.98). Importantly, the severe and non-severe presymptomatic patients can be further stratified (AUC = 0.82). In conclusion, the two-step risk-stratification model based on 10 laboratory indicators can distinguish among asymptomatic, severe presymptomatic, and non-severe presymptomatic COVID-19 patients on admission. Moreover, single-cell data analyses revealed that the CD8+T cell exhaustion correlated to the progression of COVID-19.

Lack of correlation between the SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct ) value and clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19

Problem

The utility of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cycle threshold (C_t) values in the management of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) remains controversial.

Methods

We assessed the correlation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) C_t values in nasopharyngeal swab samples with the oxygen requirements at the time of sample collection. Specimens were tested with the Simplexa PCR platform, which targets the SARS‐CoV‐2 ORF1ab and S genes.

Results

We identified 23 COVID‐19 patients with 49 C_t values available. While C_t values from ORF1ab and S genes were highly correlated for a given specimen, there was no correlation between C_t values for any of these target genes and the oxygen requirements of the patient at the time of sample collection. We found no differences in the initial nor the nadir C_t values between survivors and non‐survivors or mild/moderate versus severe/critical illness at the maximum point of illness.

Conclusion

SARS‐CoV‐2 C_t values have limited value in the management of COVID‐19.

Innate lymphoid cells and disease tolerance in SARS-CoV-2 infection

Risk of severe COVID-19 increases with age, is greater in males, and is associated with lymphopenia, but not with higher burden of SARS-CoV-2. It is unknown whether effects of age and sex on abundance of specific lymphoid subsets explain these correlations. This study found that the abundance of innate lymphoid cells (ILCs) decreases more than 7-fold over the human lifespan — T cell subsets decrease less than 2-fold — and is lower in males than in females. After accounting for effects of age and sex, ILCs, but not T cells, were lower in adults hospitalized with COVID-19, independent of lymphopenia. Among SARS-CoV-2-infected adults, the abundance of ILCs, but not of T cells, correlated inversely with odds and duration of hospitalization, and with severity of inflammation. ILCs were also uniquely decreased in pediatric COVID-19 and the numbers of these cells did not recover during follow-up. In contrast, children with MIS-C had depletion of both ILCs and T cells, and both cell types increased during follow-up. In both pediatric COVID-19 and MIS-C, ILC abundance correlated inversely with inflammation. Blood ILC mRNA and phenotype tracked closely with ILCs from lung. Importantly, blood ILCs produced amphiregulin, a protein implicated in disease tolerance and tissue homeostasis, and the percentage of amphiregulin-producing ILCs was higher in females than in males. These results suggest that, by promoting disease tolerance, homeostatic ILCs decrease morbidity and mortality associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and that lower ILC abundance accounts for increased COVID-19 severity with age and in males.

Viral dynamics of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and applications to diagnostic and public health strategies

SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by viral proliferation and clearance phases and can be followed by low-level persistent viral RNA shedding. The dynamics of viral RNA concentration, particularly in the early stages of infection, can inform clinical measures and interventions such as test-based screening. We used prospective longitudinal quantitative reverse transcription PCR testing to measure the viral RNA trajectories for 68 individuals during the resumption of the 2019-2020 National Basketball Association season. For 46 individuals with acute infections, we inferred the peak viral concentration and the duration of the viral proliferation and clearance phases. According to our mathematical model, we found that viral RNA concentrations peaked an average of 3.3 days (95% credible interval [CI] 2.5, 4.2) after first possible detectability at a cycle threshold value of 22.3 (95% CI 20.5, 23.9). The viral clearance phase lasted longer for symptomatic individuals (10.9 days [95% CI 7.9, 14.4]) than for asymptomatic individuals (7.8 days [95% CI 6.1, 9.7]). A second test within 2 days after an initial positive PCR test substantially improves certainty about a patient's infection stage. The effective sensitivity of a test intended to identify infectious individuals declines substantially with test turnaround time. These findings indicate that SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations peak rapidly regardless of symptoms. Sequential tests can help reveal a patient's progress through infection stages. Frequent, rapid-turnaround testing is needed to effectively screen individuals before they become infectious.

Awareness of COVID-19 and the Dental Implications of its Oral Manifestations among Dental Health Practitioners in Nigeria

Background

There are many aspects of COVID-19 that are related to dental practice. Hence, this study aimed to assess the level of awareness of COVID-19 concerning its symptoms, transmission and prevention and the dental implications of its oral manifestations among dentists in Nigeria.

Methodology

This is a cross-sectional study that sampled dentists who work in Nigeria regardless of their place of work with an online questionnaire using Google forms to collect the data. The questionnaire was anonymous to maintain the privacy and confidentiality of all information collected in the study. The survey was a structured questionnaire divided into three sections: Dentists' demographics, knowledge of the disease and dental implications of COVID-19.

Results

This study included 206 dentists practising in Nigeria, with 126 (61.2%) males and 80 (38.8%) females. A total of 191 (92.7%) dentists perceived COVID-19 as highly contagious and deadly. Almost all the participants (n=205, 99.5%) were knowledgeable about the mode of transmission of the disease through respiratory droplets. A total of 204 (99.0%) affirmed that dental practitioners were at risk of becoming infected with COVID-19. About 84.5% reported that salivary glands can serve as a potential reservoir for COVID-19.

Conclusion

The awareness of COVID-19 concerning the mode of transmission, symptoms and prevention among the dental professionals was encouraging. This would lead to enhanced infection control in dental settings. The majority of the participants reported that saliva can be used as a promising non-invasive specimen for diagnosis, monitoring and infection control in patients with COVID-19.

The use of pediatric flexible bronchoscopy in the COVID-19 pandemic era

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic because of a novel coronavirus, called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In January 2020, the first transmission to healthcare workers (HCWs) was described. SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted between people because of contact, droplets, and airborne. Airborne transmission is caused by aerosols that remain infectious when suspended in air over long distances and time. In the clinical setting, airborne transmission may occur during aerosol generating procedures like flexible bronchoscopy. To date, although the role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is not clear the execution of bronchoscopy is associated with a considerably increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to HCWs. The aim of this overview is to summarize available recommendations and to apply them to pediatric bronchoscopy. We performed systematic literature searches using the MEDLINE (accessed via PubMed) and Scopus databases. We reviewed major recommendations and position statements published at the moment by the American Association for Bronchology and Interventional Pulmonology, WHO, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control and expert groups on the management of patients with COVID-19 to limit transmission among HCWs. To date there is a lack of recommendations for safe bronchoscopy during the pandemic period. The main indications concern adults and little has been said about children. We have summarized available recommendations and we have applied them to pediatric bronchoscopy.

Reducing COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Applying Blockchain in Vaccination Rollout Management

Goal: Because a fast vaccination rollout against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is critical to restore daily life and avoid virus mutations, it is tempting to have a relaxed vaccination-administration management system. However, a rigorous management system can support the enforcement of preventive measures, and in turn, reduce incidence and deaths. Here, we model a trustable and reliable management system based on blockchain for vaccine distribution by extending the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model. The model includes prevention measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, vaccination rate, and vaccination efficiency. It also considers negative social behavior, such as violations of social distance and attempts of using illegitimate vaccination proofs. By evaluating the model, we show that the proposed system can reduce up to 2.5 million cases and half a million deaths in the most demanding scenarios.

Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example

The approved coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccines reduce the risk of disease by 70–95%; however, their efficacy in preventing COVID-19 is unclear. Moreover, the limited vaccine supply raises questions on how they can be used effectively. To examine the optimal allocation of COVID-19 vaccines in South Korea, we constructed an age-structured mathematical model, calibrated using country-specific demographic and epidemiological data. The optimal control problem was formulated with the aim of finding time-dependent age-specific optimal vaccination strategies to minimize costs related to COVID-19 infections and vaccination, considering a limited vaccine supply and various vaccine effects on susceptibility and symptomatology. Our results suggest that “susceptibility-reducing” vaccines should be relatively evenly distributed among all age groups, resulting in more than 40% of eligible age groups being vaccinated. In contrast, “symptom-reducing” vaccines should be administered mainly to individuals aged 20–29 and ≥60 years. Thus, our study suggests that the vaccine profile should determine the optimal vaccination strategy. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding vaccine’s effects on susceptibility and symptomatology for effective public health interventions.