Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly developed into a global epidemic. To control its spread, countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures, bans of small gatherings, or even stay-at-home orders. Here we study the effectiveness of seven NPIs in reducing the number of new infections, which was inferred from the reported cases of COVID-19 using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n = 20 countries (i.e., the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-15 countries, Norway, and Switzerland), we estimate the relative reduction in the number of new infections attributed to each NPI. Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective. With this retrospective cross-country analysis, we provide estimates regarding the effectiveness of different NPIs during the first epidemic wave.

Early impact of school closure and social distancing for COVID-19 on the number of inpatients with childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections in Japan

Many countries have implemented school closures as part of social distancing measures intended to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to assess the early impact of nationwide school closure (March-May 2020) and social distancing for COVID-19 on the number of inpatients with major childhood infectious diseases in Japan. Using data from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination system in Japan, we identified patients aged 15 years or younger with admissions for a diagnosis of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), influenza, gastrointestinal infection (GII), appendicitis, urinary tract infection (UTI), or skin and soft tissue infection (SSTI) between July 2018 and June 2020. Changes in the trend of the weekly number of inpatients between the two periods were assessed using interrupted time-series analysis. A total of 75,053 patients in 210 hospitals were included. The overall weekly number of inpatients was decreased by 52.5%, 77.4%, and by 83.4% in the last week of March, April, and May 2020, respectively, when compared on a year-on-year basis. The estimated impact was a reduction of 581 (standard error 42.9) inpatients per week in the post-school-closure period (p < 0.001). The main part of the reduction was for pre-school children. Remarkable decreases in the number of inpatients with URI, LRTI, and GII were observed, while there were relatively mild changes in the other groups.Conclusion: We confirmed a marked reduction in the number of inpatients with childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections in the post-school-closure period. What is Known: • Most countries have implemented social distancing measures to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). • A large decrease in pediatric emergency visits has been reported from several countries after the social distancing. What is New: • Based on administrative claims data, a marked reduction in the number of inpatients for childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections was found in the post-school-closure period in Japan. • The magnitude of the reduction was different between the disease groups.

Disappearance of Seasonal Respiratory Viruses in Children Under Two Years Old During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Monocentric Retrospective Study in Milan, Italy

Background: The containment measures adopted during COVID-19 pandemic have influenced the epidemiology of other respiratory viruses. Aim: We analyzed the modification of the incidence and etiology of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in young children during COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Case series of all children under 2 years old hospitalized at a tertiary care Hospital in the Center of Milan, Italy diagnosed with LRTIs in three consecutive winter seasons (from the 1st of November to the last day of February in 2018/2019, 2019/2020 and 2020/2021). We compared the number of hospitalizations and viral detections in the 2020/2021 with the average of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 (pre-COVID-19) using the Poisson distribution. Results: we enrolled 178 patients (66 from 2018/2019, 96 from 2019/2020, 16 from 2020/2021) 94 males (53%) and 84 females (47%), with a median (IQR) age of 5 (2-13) months. The number of hospitalizations during the 2020/2021 season was 80% lower than the average of the pre-COVID-19 seasons (16 vs. 81, p<0.001). Overall, 171 (96%) patient's nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) detected at least one virus (110, 64%, single-detection, 61, 36%, co-detections). In 2020/2021 we observed the disappearance of Respiratory Syncytial virus (0 vs. 54, p < 0.001), Influenza virus (0 vs. 6.5, p = 0.002), Metapneumovirus (0 vs. 8, p < 0.001), Parainfluenza viruses (0 vs. 3.5, p = 0.03) and a significant reduction of Adenovirus (2 vs. 7, p = 0.03), Bocavirus (2 vs. 7.5, p = 0.02) and Enterovirus (1 vs. 5, p = 0.04). No significant difference was found for Rhinoviruses (14 cases vs. 17, p = 0.2), other Coronaviruses (0 vs. 2, p = 0.1), and Cytomegalovirus (1 vs. 1, p = 0.7). Conclusions: We observed a striking reduction in hospitalizations due to LRTIs and a modification of the etiology, with enveloped viruses mainly affected.

Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: An analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave.

METHODS

Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed.

RESULTS

Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.

Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S

Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.

Social Determinants of Health Amplify the Association Between Ethnicity and COVID19: A Retrospective-Cohort study

BACKGROUND

People in racial and ethnic minority groups have been shown to be at increased risk for a variety of diseases, including COVID-19. However, the role that social needs play in this increased risk has not yet been quantified. Investigating these roles can elicit a greater understanding of how social needs influence the manner in which this disease is contracted and spread.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1,969 Lynn Community Health Center patients. Patients that visited the center between February 1st and July 1st, 2020, tested for COVID-19, and screened for social determinants of health (SDOH) risk factors. Demographics were compared between COVID-19 positive and negative patients. Confounding by age on the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 status was evaluated. A stratified analysis was performed to evaluate the effect modification of SDOH on the relationship between race, ethnicity, and COVID-19 status.

RESULTS

Hispanic patients had 2.93 times the odds of a positive COVID-19 test compared to non-Hispanics (95% CI: 2.37 - 3.64, p<0.0001). With at least one SDOH risk factor, Hispanics had 4.71 times the odds of a positive COVID-19 test relative to non-Hispanics (95% CI: 3.10 - 7.14). With no SDOH risk factors, Hispanics had 2.45 times the odds of a positive COVID-19 test relative to non-Hispanics (95% CI: 1.91 - 3.16). No significant associations were found for race.

CONCLUSION

Ethnicity had a significant impact on COVID-19 status in our population, where the effect of ethnicity on COVID-19 status was amplified for those with SDOH risk factors.

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

BACKGROUND

To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively).

RESULTS

The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of -15.14% (from -21.79% to -7.93%), -11.40% (from -13.66% to -9.07%), -42.94% (from -44.24% to -41.60%) and -9.26% (from -11.46% to -7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19.

Effect of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the Implications for Human Rights

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments swiftly decided to order nationwide lockdowns based on limited evidence that such extreme measures were effective in containing the epidemic. A growing concern is that governments were given little time to adopt effective and proportional interventions protecting citizens' lives while observing their freedom and rights. This paper examines the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in containing COVID-19, by conducting a linear regression over 108 countries, and the implication for human rights. The regression results are supported by evidence that shows the change in 10 selected countries' responding strategies and their effects as the confirmed cases increase. We found that school closures are effective in containing COVID-19 only when they are implemented along with complete contact tracing. Our findings imply that to contain COVID-19 effectively and minimize the risk of human rights abuses, governments should consider implementing prudently designed full contact tracing and school closure policies, among others. Minimizing the risk of human rights abuses should be a principle even when full contact tracing is implemented.

Which COVID policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction

This paper reports the results of a Bayesian analysis on large-scale empirical data to assess the effectiveness of eleven types of COVID-control policies that have been implemented at various levels of intensity in 40 countries and U.S. states since the onset of the pandemic. The analysis estimates the marginal impact of each type and level of policy as implemented in concert with other policies. The purpose is to provide policymakers and the general public with an estimate of the relative effectiveness of various COVID-control strategies. We find that a set of widely implemented core policies reduces the spread of virus but not by enough to contain the pandemic except in a few highly compliant jurisdictions. The core policies include the cancellation of public events, restriction of gatherings to fewer than 100 people, recommendation to stay at home, recommended restrictions on internal movement, implementation of a partial international travel ban, and coordination of information campaigns. For the median jurisdiction, these policies reduce growth rate in new infections from an estimated 270% per week to approximately 49% per week, but this impact is insufficient to prevent eventual transmission throughout the population because containment occurs only when a jurisdiction reduces growth in COVID infection to below zero. Most jurisdictions must also implement additional policies, each of which has the potential to reduce weekly COVID growth rate by 10 percentage points or more. The slate of these additional high-impact policies includes targeted or full workplace closings for all but essential workers, stay-at-home requirements, and targeted school closures.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Self-Reported Health

BACKGROUND

The pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the countermeasures taken to protect the public are having a substantial effect on the health of the population. In Germany, nationwide protective measures to halt the spread of the virus were implemented in mid-March for 6 weeks.

METHODS

In May, the impact of the pandemic was assessed in the German National Cohort (NAKO). A total of 113 928 men and women aged 20 to 74 years at the time of the baseline examination conducted 1 to 5 years earlier (53%) answered, within a 30-day period, a follow-up questionnaire on SARS-CoV-2 test status, COVID-19- associated symptoms, and self-perceived health status.

RESULTS

The self-reported SARS-CoV-2 test frequency among the probands was 4.6%, and 344 participants (0.3%) reported a positive test result. Depressive and anxiety-related symptoms increased relative to baseline only in participants under 60 years of age, particularly in young women. The rate of moderate to severe depressive symptoms increased from 6.4% to 8.8%. Perceived stress increased in all age groups and both sexes, especially in the young. The scores for mental state and self-rated health worsened in participants tested for SARS-CoV-2 compared with those who were not tested. In 32% of the participants, however, self-rated health improved.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic and the protective measures during the first wave had effects on mental health and on self-rated general health.

[The ESC recommendations for COVID-19-no guideline, but a learning guidance]

„No guideline but guidance“ ist das Motto dieses Leitfadens der European Society of Cardiology (ESC), der als lernende Orientierungshilfe für Ärzte in der Coronapandemie konzipiert ist. 62 europäische Kardiologen haben als Autoren und 29 weitere Experten als Reviewer zu dem 119 Seiten starken Dokument beigetragen. Der Leitfaden ist geprägt von einer vorsichtigen Strategie im Umgang mit einer Pandemie, von der vieles noch nicht bekannt ist. Er beschränkt sich bewusst auf kardiovaskuläre Erkrankungen. In seiner letzten Fassung vom 10. Juni 2020 gibt er zahlreiche praktische Anleitungen zur kardiovaskulären Diagnostik und Therapie unter Pandemiebedingungen. Die Empfehlungen sind oft redundante Rückgriffe auf die bekannten Leitlinien der ESC. Informativ, aber in Teilen ergänzungsbedürftig sind die Abschnitte zur Pathophysiologie und zu den Pathomechanismen, über die SARS-CoV‑2 („severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2“) spezifisch auf das Herz-Kreislauf-System wirken dürfte. Kontraproduktiv ist die Empfehlung, auf pathohistologische und molekulare Untersuchungen von Gewebe betroffener oder verstorbener Patienten zu verzichten. Den hohen Ansprüchen an einen sich immer wieder ergänzenden Leitfaden genügt die letzte verfügbare Fassung dennoch in weiten Teilen. Sie benötigt aber eine baldige Aktualisierung, wenn sie ihren Ambitionen gerecht werden will.

Factors associated with clinical severity in Emergency Department patients presenting with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

Objective

To measure the association of race, ethnicity, comorbidities, and insurance status with need for hospitalization of symptomatic Emergency Department (ED) patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

Methods

This study is a retrospective case-series of symptomatic patients presenting to a single ED with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 12-August 9, 2020. We collected patient-level information regarding demographics, public insurance status (Medicare or Medicaid), comorbidities, level of care, and mortality using a structured chart review. We compared demographics and comorbidities of patients who were (1) able to convalesce at home, (2) required admission to general medical service, (3) required admission to intensive care unit (ICU), or (4) died within 30 days of the index visit. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to report adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and the associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with hospital admission versus ED discharge home.

Results

In total, 993 patients who presented to the ED with symptoms were included in the analysis with 370 (37.3%) patients requiring hospital admission and 70 (7.1%) patients requiring ICU care. Patients requiring admission were more likely to be Black or African American, to be Hispanic or Latino, or to have public insurance (either Medicaid or Medicare.) On multivariable logistic regression analysis comparing which patients required hospital admission, African-American race (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 0.7-2.8) and Hispanic ethnicity (aOR 1.1, 95% CI 0.5-2.0) were not associated with need for admission but, public insurance (Medicaid: aOR 3.4, 95% CI 2.2-5.4; Medicare: aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.3; Medicaid and Medicare: aOR 3.6 95% CI 2.1-6.2) and the presence of hypertension (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7), diabetes (aOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.5), obesity (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.5), heart failure (aOR 3.9, 95% CI 1.4-11.2), and hyperlipidemia (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.9) were identified as independent predictors of hospital admission.

Conclusion

Comorbidities and public insurance are predictors of more severe illness for patients with SARS-CoV-2. This study suggests that the disparities in severity seen in COVID-19 among African Americans and Hispanics are likely to be closely related to low socioeconomic status and chronic health conditions and do not reflect an independent predisposition to disease severity.

Retrospective study identifies infection related risk factors in close contacts during COVID-19 epidemic

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to compare the risk of infection of children with that of adults and to explore risk factors of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) by following up close contacts of COVID-19 patients.

METHOD

The retrospective cohort study was performed among close contacts of index cases diagnosed with COVID-19 in Guangzhou, China. Demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms and exposure information were extracted. Logistic regression analysis was employed to explore the risk factors. The restricted cubic spline was conducted to examine to the dose-response relationship between age and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

The secondary attack rate (SAR) was 4.4% in 1,344 close contacts. The group of household contacts (17.2%) had the highest SAR. The rare-frequency contact (p < 0.001) and moderate-frequency contact (p < 0.001) were associated with lower risk of infection. Exposure to index cases with dry cough symptoms was associated with infection in close contacts (p = 0.004). Compared with children, adults had a significantly increased risk of infection (p = 0.014). There is a linear positive correlation between age and infection (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Children are probably less susceptible to COVID-19. Close contacts with frequent contact with patients and those exposed to patients with cough symptoms are associated with an increased risk of infection.

Radiation treatment of hemato-oncological patients in times of the COVID-19 pandemic : Expert recommendations from the radiation oncology panels of the German Hodgkin Study Group and the German Lymphoma Alliance

PURPOSE

The coronavirus pandemic is affecting global health systems, endangering daily patient care. Hemato-oncological patients are particularly vulnerable to infection, requiring decisive recommendations on treatment and triage. The aim of this survey amongst experts on radiation therapy (RT) for lymphoma and leukemia is to delineate typical clinical scenarios and to provide counsel for high-quality care.

METHODS

A multi-item questionnaire containing multiple-choice and free-text questions was developed in a peer-reviewed process and sent to members of the radiation oncology panels of the German Hodgkin Study Group and the German Lymphoma Alliance. Answers were assessed online and analyzed centrally.

RESULTS

Omission of RT was only considered in a minority of cases if alternative treatment options were available. Hypofractionated regimens and reduced dosages may be used for indolent lymphoma and fractures due to multiple myeloma. Overall, there was a tendency to shorten RT rather than to postpone or omit it. Even in case of critical resource shortage, panelists agreed to start emergency RT for typical indications (intracranial pressure, spinal compression, superior vena cava syndrome) within 24 h. Possible criteria to consider for patient triage are the availability of (systemic) options, the underlying disease dynamic, and the treatment rationale (curative/palliative).

CONCLUSION

RT for hemato-oncological patients receives high-priority and should be maintained even in later stages of the pandemic. Hypofractionation and shortened treatment schedules are feasible options for well-defined constellations, but have to be discussed in the clinical context.

Childcare Exposure to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 for 4-Year-Old Presymptomatic Child, South Korea

Data on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from preschool-age children to children and adults are limited. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 exposure at a childcare center in South Korea. A 4-year-old child, probably infected by his grandmother, attended the center during the presymptomatic period (February 19–21, 2020). Fever developed on February 22, and he was given a diagnosis SARS-CoV-2 infection on February 27. At the center, 190 persons (154 children and 36 adults) were identified as contacts; 44 (23.2%) were defined as close contacts (37 children and 7 adults). All 190 persons were negative for SARS-CoV-2 on days 8–9 after the last exposure. Two close contacts (1 child and 1 adult) showed development of symptoms on the last day of quarantine. However, subsequent test results were negative. This investigation adds indirect evidence of low potential infectivity in a childcare setting with exposure to a presymptomatic child.

COVID-19 and School Activities in Italy

After a linear growth during September, the diffusion in Italy of SARS-CoV-2, responsible for COVID-19, has been growing exponentially since the end of that month with a doubling time approximately equal to one week [...].

Dermatological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 infection: mechanisms and manifestations

The human infection caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 is a public health emergency of international concern. Although the disease associated to this virus, named COVID-19, mainly affects the lungs, the infection can spread to extrapulmonary tissues, causing multiorgan involvement in severely ill patients. The broad infective capacity of SARS-CoV-2 is related to the pattern of expression of the viral entry factors ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in human tissues. As such, the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection due to their high expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2, which explains the clinical phenotype described in the vast majority of infected patients that includes pneumonia and diarrhea. Recently, preoccupation about the potential of the virus to infect the skin has been raised by dermatologists due to the increasing observations of cutaneous manifestations in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although there is little evidence of the expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in the normal skin, the dermatological findings observed among COVID-19 patients warrants further investigation to delineate the mechanisms of skin affection after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here, we provide a summary of the dermatological findings observed among patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection based on recent reports. In addition, we analyze possible mechanisms of skin injury in COVID-19 patients and discuss about the risk of individuals with chronic skin conditions for SARS-CoV-2 infection. The present review constitutes a useful informative tool to improve our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms of COVID-19 and the possible implications of the current pandemic in dermatology.

Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments

The role of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 viruses in airborne transmission of COVID-19 has been debated. The aerosols are transmitted through breathing and vocalization by infectious subjects. Some authors state that this represents the dominant route of spreading, while others dismiss the option. Here we present an adjustable algorithm to estimate the infection risk for different indoor environments, constrained by published data of human aerosol emissions, SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, infective dose and other parameters. We evaluate typical indoor settings such as an office, a classroom, choir practice, and a reception/party. Our results suggest that aerosols from highly infective subjects can effectively transmit COVID-19 in indoor environments. This "highly infective" category represents approximately 20% of the patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We find that "super infective" subjects, representing the top 5-10% of subjects with a positive test, plus an unknown fraction of less-but still highly infective, high aerosol-emitting subjects-may cause COVID-19 clusters (>10 infections). In general, active room ventilation and the ubiquitous wearing of face masks (i.e., by all subjects) may reduce the individual infection risk by a factor of five to ten, similar to high-volume, high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtering. A particularly effective mitigation measure is the use of high-quality masks, which can drastically reduce the indoor infection risk through aerosols.

Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments

The role of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 viruses in airborne transmission of COVID-19 has been debated. The aerosols are transmitted through breathing and vocalization by infectious subjects. Some authors state that this represents the dominant route of spreading, while others dismiss the option. Here we present an adjustable algorithm to estimate the infection risk for different indoor environments, constrained by published data of human aerosol emissions, SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, infective dose and other parameters. We evaluate typical indoor settings such as an office, a classroom, choir practice, and a reception/party. Our results suggest that aerosols from highly infective subjects can effectively transmit COVID-19 in indoor environments. This "highly infective" category represents approximately 20% of the patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We find that "super infective" subjects, representing the top 5-10% of subjects with a positive test, plus an unknown fraction of less-but still highly infective, high aerosol-emitting subjects-may cause COVID-19 clusters (>10 infections). In general, active room ventilation and the ubiquitous wearing of face masks (i.e., by all subjects) may reduce the individual infection risk by a factor of five to ten, similar to high-volume, high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtering. A particularly effective mitigation measure is the use of high-quality masks, which can drastically reduce the indoor infection risk through aerosols.

Estimation of US Children's Educational Attainment and Years of Life Lost Associated With Primary School Closures During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic

IMPORTANCE

United States primary school closures during the 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected millions of children, with little understanding of the potential health outcomes associated with educational disruption.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential years of life lost (YLL) associated with the COVID-19 pandemic conditioned on primary schools being closed or remaining open.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This decision analytical model estimated the association between school closures and reduced educational attainment and the association between reduced educational attainment and life expectancy using publicly available data sources, including data for 2020 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Social Security Administration, and the US Census Bureau. Direct COVID-19 mortality and potential increases in mortality that might have resulted if school opening led to increased transmission of COVID-19 were also estimated.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Years of life lost.

RESULTS

A total of 24.2 million children aged 5 to 11 years attended public schools that were closed during the 2020 pandemic, losing a median of 54 (interquartile range, 48-62.5) days of instruction. Missed instruction was associated with a mean loss of 0.31 (95% credible interval [CI], 0.10-0.65) years of final educational attainment for boys and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.06-0.46) years for girls. Summed across the population, an estimated 5.53 million (95% CI, 1.88-10.80) YLL may be associated with school closures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a total of 88 241 US deaths from COVID-19 through the end of May 2020, with an estimated 1.50 million (95% CI, 1.23-1.85 million) YLL as a result. Had schools remained open, 1.47 million (95% credible interval, 0.45-2.59) additional YLL could have been expected as a result, based on results of studies associating school closure with decreased pandemic spread. Comparing the full distributions of estimated YLL under both "schools open" and "schools closed" conditions, the analysis observed a 98.1% probability that school opening would have been associated with a lower total YLL than school closure.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this decision analytical model of years of life potentially lost under differing conditions of school closure, the analysis favored schools remaining open. Future decisions regarding school closures during the pandemic should consider the association between educational disruption and decreased expected lifespan and give greater weight to the potential outcomes of school closure on children's health.

The Right to Education and ICT during COVID-19: An International Perspective

There is a lack of concluding evidence among epidemiologists and public health specialists about how school closures reduce the spread of COVID-19. Herein, we attend to the generalization of this action throughout the world, specifically in its quest to reduce mortality and avoid infections. Considering the impact on the right to education from a global perspective, this article discusses how COVID-19 has exacerbated inequalities and pre-existing problems in education systems around the world. Therefore, the institutional responses to guaranteeing remote continuity of the teaching–learning process during this educational crisis was compared regionally through international databases. Three categories of analysis were established: infrastructure and equipment, both basic and computer-based, as well as internet access of schools; preparation and means of teachers to develop distance learning; and implemented measures and resources to continue educational processes. The results showed an uneven capacity in terms of response and preparation to face the learning losses derived from school closure, both in low-income regions and within middle- and high-income countries. We concluded that it is essential to articulate inclusive educational policies that support strengthening the government response capacity, especially in low-income countries, to address the sustainability of education.

State-level variation of initial COVID-19 dynamics in the United States

During an epidemic, metrics such as R0, doubling time, and case fatality rates are important in understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. However, if collected over country or regional scales, these metrics hide important smaller-scale, local dynamics. We examine how commonly used epidemiological metrics differ for each individual state within the United States during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the detected case number and trajectory of early detected cases differ considerably between states. We then test for correlations with testing protocols, interventions and population characteristics. We find that epidemic dynamics were most strongly associated with non-pharmaceutical government actions during the early phase of the epidemic. In particular, early social distancing restrictions, particularly on restaurant operations, was correlated with increased doubling times. Interestingly, we also found that states with little tolerance for deviance from enforced rules saw faster early epidemic growth. Together with other correlates such as population density, our results highlight the different factors involved in the heterogeneity in the early spread of COVID-19 throughout the United States. Although individual states are clearly not independent, they can serve as small, natural experiments in how different demographic patterns and government responses can impact the course of an epidemic.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on patients with ANCA associated vasculitis

INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought on challenges not only to acute care, but also chronic care of patients. Individuals maintained on immunosuppression appear to be especially susceptible to COVID-19 infection. Patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) frequently require immunosuppression and may be at increased risk for developing COVID-19. The incidence and impact of COVID-19 on patients with AAV is currently not known. We aimed to investigate this impact via a telephone questionnaire-based patient survey and chart review.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of AAV patients followed at two centers was conducted. Data regarding demographics, disease characteristics and therapy were confirmed by chart review. A telephone survey was conducted to ascertain symptoms and contact exposure related to COVID-19, as well as changes in health care delivery during the pandemic period between January and July, 2020.

RESULTS

Of the 206 patients surveyed, the median age was 64 years, 51% were female and mean (SD) disease duration was 7 (5) years. The majority had kidney (n = 160) and lung (n = 108) involvement. Seventy-five percent (n = 155) were receiving immunosuppression, with 77 patients (50%) receiving rituximab during the pandemic period. Of the 10 patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) by PCR, three were positive. Patients had a significant disruption in care; none had an in-person visit and 69% had a telemedicine consultation. Rituximab maintenance was postponed in 21 patients. Twelve patients experienced disease relapse.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of COVID-19 in patients with AAV appears to be similar to that of the general population. For a patient population that requires active clinical surveillance, there is significant disruption in care as a result of the pandemic. Reduction of immunosuppression may not be indicated, and the risk of relapse likely far outweighs the risk of COVID-19.

Filter clotting with continuous renal replacement therapy in COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be associated with increased arterial and venous thromboembolic disease. These presumed abnormalities in hemostasis have been associated with filter clotting during continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). We aimed to characterize the burden of CRRT filter clotting in COVID-19 infection and to describe a CRRT anticoagulation protocol that used anti-factor Xa levels for systemic heparin dosing. Multi-center study of consecutive patients with COVID-19 receiving CRRT. Primary outcome was CRRT filter loss. Sixty-five patients were analyzed, including 17 using an anti-factor Xa protocol to guide systemic heparin dosing. Fifty-four out of 65 patients (83%) lost at least one filter. Median first filter survival time was 6.5 [2.5, 33.5] h. There was no difference in first or second filter loss between the anti-Xa protocol and standard of care anticoagulation groups, however fewer patients lost their third filter in the protocolized group (55% vs. 93%) resulting in a longer median third filter survival time (24 [15.1, 54.2] vs. 17.3 [9.5, 35.1] h, p = 0.04). The rate of CRRT filter loss is high in COVID-19 infection. An anticoagulation protocol using systemic unfractionated heparin, dosed by anti-factor Xa levels is reasonable approach to anticoagulation in this population.

First results of the "Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS)"

Purpose

Knowledge regarding patients’ clinical condition at severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection is sparse. Data in the international, multicenter Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) cohort study may enhance the understanding of COVID-19.

Methods

Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, enrolled in the LEOSS cohort study between March 16, 2020, and May 14, 2020, were analyzed. Associations between baseline characteristics and clinical stages at diagnosis (uncomplicated vs. complicated) were assessed using logistic regression models.

Results

We included 2155 patients, 59.7% (1,287/2,155) were male; the most common age category was 66–85 years (39.6%; 500/2,155). The primary COVID-19 diagnosis was made in 35.0% (755/2,155) during complicated clinical stages. A significant univariate association between age; sex; body mass index; smoking; diabetes; cardiovascular, pulmonary, neurological, and kidney diseases; ACE inhibitor therapy; statin intake and an increased risk for complicated clinical stages of COVID-19 at diagnosis was found. Multivariable analysis revealed that advanced age [46–65 years: adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.73, 95% CI 1.25–2.42, p = 0.001; 66–85 years: aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.36–2.74, p < 0.001; > 85 years: aOR 2.38, 95% CI 1.49–3.81, p < 0.001 vs. individuals aged 26–45 years], male sex (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01–1.50, p = 0.040), cardiovascular disease (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09–1.72, p = 0.007), and diabetes (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.04–1.69, p = 0.023) were associated with complicated stages of COVID-19 at diagnosis.

Conclusion

The LEOSS cohort identified age, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and male sex as risk factors for complicated disease stages at SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, thus confirming previous data. Further data regarding outcomes of the natural course of COVID-19 and the influence of treatment are required.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s15010-020-01499-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Hospital at home for the management of COVID-19: preliminary experience with 63 patients

Alternatives to conventional hospitalization are needed to increase health systems resilience in the face of COVID-19 pandemic. Herein, we describe the characteristics and outcomes of 63 patients admitted to a single HaH during the peak of COVID-19 in Barcelona. Our results suggest that HaH seems to be a safe and efficacious alternative to conventional hospitalization for accurately selected patients with COVID-19.

Strong impact of closing schools, closing bars and wearing masks during the Covid-19 pandemic: results from a simple and revealing analysis

Many complex mathematical and epidemiological methods have been used to model the Covid-19 pandemic. Among other results from these models has been the view that closing schools had little impact on infection rates in several countries1. We took a different approach. Making one assumption, we simply plotted cases, hospitalizations and deaths, on a log2 Y axis and a linear date-based X axis, and analyzed them using segmented regression, a powerful method that has largely been overlooked during this pandemic. Here we show that the data fit straight lines with correlation coefficients ranging from 92% - 99%, and that these lines broke at interesting intervals, revealing that school closings dropped infection rates in half, lockdowns dropped the rates 3 to 4 fold, and other actions (such as closing bars and mandating masks) brought the rates even further down. Hospitalizations and deaths paralleled cases, with lags of three to ten days. The graphs, which are easy to read, reveal changes in infection rates that are not obvious using other graphing methods, and have several implications for modeling and policy development during this and future pandemics. Overall, other than full lockdowns, three interventions had the most impact: closing schools, closing bars and wearing masks: a message easily understood by the public.

Comparison of four commercial SARS-CoV-2 IgG immuno-assays in RT-PCR negative patients with suspect CT findings

A subset of patients with Covid-19 presents with negative RT-PCR screening but suspect CT findings. Using four commercially available anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG immuno-assays, we found this subset constituted 9.2% of all consecutively admitted outpatients with Covid-19 in our hospital. Clinical specificity for Covid-19 of some N protein-based immuno-assays was suboptimal, as positive results were observed in control patients with recent common human coronavirus, influenza B and adenovirus infections.

Tolerability and safety of awake prone positioning COVID-19 patients with severe hypoxemic respiratory failure

PURPOSE

Prone positioning of non-intubated patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and hypoxemic respiratory failure may prevent intubation and improve outcomes. Nevertheless, there are limited data on its feasibility, safety, and physiologic effects. The objective of our study was to assess the tolerability and safety of awake prone positioning in COVID-19 patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure.

METHODS

This historical cohort study was performed across four hospitals in Calgary, Canada. Included patients had suspected COVID-19 and hypoxic respiratory failure requiring intensive care unit (ICU) consultation, and underwent awake prone positioning. The duration, frequency, tolerability, and adverse events from prone positioning were recorded. Respiratory parameters were assessed before, during, and after prone positioning. The primary outcome was the tolerability and safety of prone positioning.

RESULTS

Seventeen patients (n = 12 ICU, n = 5 hospital ward) were included between April and May 2020. The median (range) number of prone positioning days was 1 (1-7) and the median number of sessions was 2 (1-6) per day. The duration of prone positioning was 75 (30-480) min, and the peripheral oxygen saturation was 91% (84-95) supine and 98% (92-100) prone. Limitations to prone position duration were pain/general discomfort (47%) and delirium (6%); 47% of patients had no limitations. Seven patients (41%) required intubation and two patients (12%) died.

CONCLUSIONS

In a small sample, prone positioning non-intubated COVID-19 patients with severe hypoxemia was safe; however, many patients did not tolerate prolonged durations. Although patients had improved oxygenation and respiratory rate in the prone position, many still required intubation. Future studies are required to determine methods to improve the tolerability of awake prone positioning and whether there is an impact on clinical outcomes.

COVID-19 and cardiovascular disease: from basic mechanisms to clinical perspectives

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a strain of coronavirus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become a global pandemic that has affected the lives of billions of individuals. Extensive studies have revealed that SARS-CoV-2 shares many biological features with SARS-CoV, the zoonotic virus that caused the 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, including the system of cell entry, which is triggered by binding of the viral spike protein to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2. Clinical studies have also reported an association between COVID-19 and cardiovascular disease. Pre-existing cardiovascular disease seems to be linked with worse outcomes and increased risk of death in patients with COVID-19, whereas COVID-19 itself can also induce myocardial injury, arrhythmia, acute coronary syndrome and venous thromboembolism. Potential drug-disease interactions affecting patients with COVID-19 and comorbid cardiovascular diseases are also becoming a serious concern. In this Review, we summarize the current understanding of COVID-19 from basic mechanisms to clinical perspectives, focusing on the interaction between COVID-19 and the cardiovascular system. By combining our knowledge of the biological features of the virus with clinical findings, we can improve our understanding of the potential mechanisms underlying COVID-19, paving the way towards the development of preventative and therapeutic solutions.

Sex differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and the potential link to prostate cancer

The recent outbreak of infections and the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 represent one of the most severe threats to human health in more than a century. Emerging data from the United States and elsewhere suggest that the disease is more severe in men. Knowledge gained, and lessons learned, from studies of the biological interactions and molecular links that may explain the reasons for the greater severity of disease in men, and specifically in the age group at risk for prostate cancer, will lead to better management of COVID-19 in prostate cancer patients. Such information will be indispensable in the current and post-pandemic scenarios.

Moving Forward with Dysphagia Care: Implementing Strategies during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond

Growing numbers of SARS-CoV-2 cases coupled with limited understanding of transmissibility and virulence, have challenged the current workflow and clinical care pathways for the dysphagia provider. At the same time, the need for non-COVID-19-related dysphagia care persists. Increased awareness of asymptomatic virus carriers and variable expression of the disease have also focused attention to appropriate patient care in the context of protection for the healthcare workforce. The objective of this review was to create a clinical algorithm and reference for dysphagia clinicians across clinical settings to minimize spread of COVID-19 cases while providing optimal care to patients suffering from swallowing disorders. Every practitioner and healthcare system will likely have different constraints or preferences leading to the utilization of one technique over another. Knowledge about this pandemic increases every day, but the algorithms provided here will help in considering the best options for proceeding with safe and effective dysphagia care in this new era.

COVID-19 in people living with human immunodeficiency virus: a case series of 33 patients

Introduction

Data on people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) in the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are still scarce. This case series of 33 PLWH patients with COVID-19 reveals symptoms and outcome in this special population.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of anonymized data including age, gender, HIV-associated parameters, symptoms, and outcome.

Results

Three out of 32 patients with documented outcomes died (9%). 91% of the patients recovered and 76% have been classified as mild cases. All patients were on antiretroviral treatment, of them 22 on tenofovir-containing regimen and 4 on the protease inhibitor darunavir.

Conclusions

This preliminary case series does not support excess morbidity and mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 PLWH and with viral suppression on ART. SARS-CoV-2 infections may occur during boosted darunavir-based and/or on tenofovir-containing ART.

Pathological inflammation in patients with COVID-19: a key role for monocytes and macrophages

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2 has led to more than 200,000 deaths worldwide. Several studies have now established that the hyperinflammatory response induced by SARS-CoV-2 is a major cause of disease severity and death in infected patients. Macrophages are a population of innate immune cells that sense and respond to microbial threats by producing inflammatory molecules that eliminate pathogens and promote tissue repair. However, a dysregulated macrophage response can be damaging to the host, as is seen in the macrophage activation syndrome induced by severe infections, including in infections with the related virus SARS-CoV. Here we describe the potentially pathological roles of macrophages during SARS-CoV-2 infection and discuss ongoing and prospective therapeutic strategies to modulate macrophage activation in patients with COVID-19.

This Progress article from Merad and Martin examines our current understanding of the excessive inflammatory responses seen in patients with severe COVID-19. The authors focus on the emerging pathological roles of monocytes and macrophages and discuss the inflammatory pathways that are currently being targeted in the clinic.

State-level variation of initial COVID-19 dynamics in the United States

During an epidemic, metrics such as R0, doubling time, and case fatality rates are important in understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. However, if collected over country or regional scales, these metrics hide important smaller-scale, local dynamics. We examine how commonly used epidemiological metrics differ for each individual state within the United States during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the detected case number and trajectory of early detected cases differ considerably between states. We then test for correlations with testing protocols, interventions and population characteristics. We find that epidemic dynamics were most strongly associated with non-pharmaceutical government actions during the early phase of the epidemic. In particular, early social distancing restrictions, particularly on restaurant operations, was correlated with increased doubling times. Interestingly, we also found that states with little tolerance for deviance from enforced rules saw faster early epidemic growth. Together with other correlates such as population density, our results highlight the different factors involved in the heterogeneity in the early spread of COVID-19 throughout the United States. Although individual states are clearly not independent, they can serve as small, natural experiments in how different demographic patterns and government responses can impact the course of an epidemic.