Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Multi-scale immunoepidemiological modeling of within-host and between-host HIV dynamics: systematic review of mathematical models

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of multi-scale HIV immunoepidemiological models to improve our understanding of the synergistic impact between the HIV viral-immune dynamics at the individual level and HIV transmission dynamics at the population level.

BACKGROUND

While within-host and between-host models of HIV dynamics have been well studied at a single scale, connecting the immunological and epidemiological scales through multi-scale models is an emerging method to infer the synergistic dynamics of HIV at the individual and population levels.

METHODS

We reviewed nine articles using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework that focused on the synergistic dynamics of HIV immunoepidemiological models at the individual and population levels.

RESULTS

HIV immunoepidemiological models simulate viral immune dynamics at the within-host scale and the epidemiological transmission dynamics at the between-host scale. They account for longitudinal changes in the immune viral dynamics of HIV+ individuals, and their corresponding impact on the transmission dynamics in the population. They are useful to analyze the dynamics of HIV super-infection, co-infection, drug resistance, evolution, and treatment in HIV+ individuals, and their impact on the epidemic pathways in the population. We illustrate the coupling mechanisms of the within-host and between-host scales, their mathematical implementation, and the clinical and public health problems that are appropriate for analysis using HIV immunoepidemiological models.

CONCLUSION

HIV immunoepidemiological models connect the within-host immune dynamics at the individual level and the epidemiological transmission dynamics at the population level. While multi-scale models add complexity over a single-scale model, they account for the time varying immune viral response of HIV+ individuals, and the corresponding impact on the time-varying risk of transmission of HIV+ individuals to other susceptibles in the population.

Trends in the incidence of AIDS and epidemiological features in Tianjin, China from 2005 to 2016

The objective of this study was to assess the epidemiological trends among patients with AIDS in Tianjin, China. A long-term surveillance study was conducted from 2005 to 2016 in Tianjin, China. All patients with AIDS registered in Tianjin from 2005 to 2016 were recruited to this study. Demographic information and clinical features were recorded. A total of 3062 patients with AIDS who were treated with antiretroviral therapy were included in this study. Among AIDS patients, men were more likely to be younger than women (age, 37.84 years vs. 43.27 years; P < 0.001). The incidence of AIDS increased by 39.6% annually over the past 12 years overall. There was the greatest increase (by 44.7%) for homosexual route. Moreover, the proportion of patients aged < 30 years increased considerably over the 12-year study period, while there was a decrease in the proportion of patients aged ≥ 35 years. The frequency of homosexual transmission increased by 86% from before 2011 to 2016, but the frequency of heterosexual transmission decreased by 49%. The frequency of transmission through intravenous drug use decreased in men and patients aged 25–29 years. For those infected through homosexual transmission, there was a significant increase in the numbers of patients aged 20–24 years and 25–29 years. It is important for developing countries to effectively prevent and control the transmission of HIV/AIDS; in particular, it is crucial to promote disease education and sexual protection among young men.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.

INTERPRETATION

At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

INTERPRETATION

The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

METHODS

We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

FINDINGS

Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Radiotherapy in patients with HIV: current issues and review of the literature

Although the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy has radically improved the life expectancy of patients with HIV, HIV positivity is still considered a major barrier to oncological treatment for patients with cancer because of their worse prognosis and increased susceptibility to toxic effects compared with patients who are immunocompetent. The use of radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy, immunotherapy, or molecular targeted therapy is the standard of care for several cancers. These new drugs and substantial improvements in radiotherapy techniques, including intensity-modulated radiotherapy, image-guided radiotherapy, and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy, are optimising the feasibility of such anticancer treatments and are providing new opportunities for patients with cancer and HIV. In this Review, we discuss the role of radiotherapy, with or without chemotherapy or new drugs, in the treatment of cancer in patients with HIV, with a focus on the efficacy and tolerability of this approach on the basis of available evidence. Moreover, we analyse and discuss the biological basis of interactions between HIV and radiotherapy, evidence from preclinical studies, and immunomodulation by radiotherapy in the HIV setting.

A review of renal disease in children with HIV infection

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to be a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. HIV-infected individuals are now surviving for a relatively longer period and this is because of easy accessibility to antiretroviral therapy these days. As a result, chronic disease-related complications are now being recognized more often. Kidney disease in HIV-infected children can vary from glomerular to tubular-interstitial involvement. We searched the database to identify various kidney diseases seen in HIV-infected children. We describe the epidemiology, pathogenesis, pathology, clinical and laboratory manifestations, management and outcome of commonly seen kidney disease in HIV-infected children. We also provide a brief overview of toxicity of antiretroviral drugs seen in HIV-infected children. Kidney involvement in HIV-infected children may arise because of HIV infection per se, opportunistic infections, immune mediated injury and drug toxicity. HIV-associated nephropathy is perhaps the most common and most severe form of kidney disease. Proteinuria may be a cost-effective screening test in the long-term management of HIV-infected children, however, there are no definite recommendations for the same. Other important renal diseases are HIV immune complex kidney disease, thrombotic microangiopathy, interstitial nephritis and vasculitis.

Vitamin A supplements for reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission

BACKGROUND

Strategies to reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) include lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-positive women, exclusive breastfeeding from birth for six weeks plus nevirapine or replacement feeding plus nevirapine from birth for four to six weeks, elective Caesarean section delivery, and avoiding giving children chewed food. In some settings, these interventions may not be practical, feasible, or affordable. Simple, inexpensive, and effective interventions (that could potentially be implemented even in the absence of prenatal HIV testing programmes) would be valuable. Vitamin A, which plays a role in immune function, is one low-cost intervention that has been suggested in such settings.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize the effects of giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women during pregnancy and after delivery.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PubMed, Embase, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) up to 25 August 2017, and checked the reference lists of relevant articles for eligible studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials conducted in any setting that compared vitamin A supplements to placebo or no intervention among HIV-positive women during pregnancy or after delivery, or both.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

At least two review authors independently assessed study eligibility and extracted data. We expressed study results as risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD) as appropriate, with their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and conducted random-effects meta-analyses. This is an update of a review last published in 2011.

MAIN RESULTS

Five trials met the inclusion criteria. These were conducted in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe between 1995 and 2005 and none of the participants received ART. Women allocated to intervention arms received vitamin A supplements at a variety of doses (daily during pregnancy; a single dose immediately after delivery, or daily doses during pregnancy plus a single dose after delivery). Women allocated to comparison arms received identical placebo (6601 women, 4 trials) or no intervention (697 women, 1 trial). Four trials (with 6995 women) had low risk of bias and one trial (with 303 women) had high risk of attrition bias.The trials show that giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women during pregnancy, the immediate postpartum period, or both, probably has little or no effect on mother-to-child transmission of HIV (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.26; 4428 women, 5 trials, moderate certainty evidence) and may have little or no effect on child death by two years of age (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.22; 3883 women, 3 trials, low certainty evidence). However, giving vitamin A supplements during pregnancy may increase the mean birthweight (MD 34.12 g, 95% CI -12.79 to 81.02; 2181 women, 3 trials, low certainty evidence) and probably reduces the incidence of low birthweight (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.97; 1819 women, 3 trials, moderate certainty evidence); but we do not know whether vitamin A supplements affect the risk of preterm delivery (1577 women, 2 trials), stillbirth (2335 women, 3 trials), or maternal death (1267 women, 2 trials).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Antepartum or postpartum vitamin A supplementation, or both, probably has little or no effect on mother-to-child transmission of HIV in women living with HIV infection and not on antiretroviral drugs. The intervention has largely been superseded by ART which is widely available and effective in preventing vertical transmission.

The effect of stage of HIV disease as determined by CD4 count on clinical outcomes of surgical sepsis in South Africa

INTRODUCTION This paper reviews the impact of the stage of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease on the outcome of surgical sepsis. METHODS All adult emergency general surgical patients (aged >15 years) who fulfilled the criteria for sepsis or septic shock, with a documented surgical source of infection, and who were HIV positive were reviewed. RESULTS During the 5-year study period, a total of 675 patients with a documented surgical source of sepsis were managed by our service; 142 (21%) of these were HIV positive. Among the individuals who were HIV positive, the CD4 count was <200 cells/µl in 21 patients and ≥200 cells/µl in 121 patients. There was no difference between these two cohorts in terms of demography or spectrum of surgical conditions. The range of surgical procedures and complications was also similar in both groups. Nevertheless, patients with a CD count of <200 cells/µl had a significantly longer length of hospital stay than those in the cohort with ≥200 cells/µl. For HIV positive patients with a CD4 count of <200 cells/µl, the mortality rate was 66.7% (14/21) while the mortality rate for individuals with HIV and a CD4 count of ≥200 cells/µl was 2.5% (2/121). This difference was statistically significant (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The clinical presentation and spectrum of surgical sepsis disease in cases with stage 1 and stage 2 HIV is not markedly different. However, in patients with a CD4 count of <200 cells/µl, the length of hospital stay and mortality is significantly higher. Stage of HIV disease must be considered when stratifying patients' risk for surgery.

Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease in Botswana Following Successful Antiretroviral Therapy Rollout: Incidence of and Temporal Trends in Cryptococcal Meningitis

Background

Botswana has a well-developed antiretroviral therapy (ART) program that serves as a regional model. With wide ART availability, the burden of advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and associated opportunistic infections would be expected to decline. We performed a nationwide surveillance study to determine the national incidence of cryptococcal meningitis (CM), and describe characteristics of cases during 2000-2014 and temporal trends at 2 national referral hospitals.

Methods

Cerebrospinal fluid data from all 37 laboratories performing meningitis diagnostics in Botswana were collected from the period 2000-2014 to identify cases of CM. Basic demographic and laboratory data were recorded. Complete national data from 2013-2014 were used to calculate national incidence using UNAIDS population estimates. Temporal trends in cases were derived from national referral centers in the period 2004-2014.

Results

A total of 5296 episodes of CM were observed in 4702 individuals; 60.6% were male, and median age was 36 years. Overall 2013-2014 incidence was 17.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.6-19.2) cases per 100000 person-years. In the HIV-infected population, incidence was 96.8 (95% CI, 90.0-104.0) cases per 100000 person-years; male predominance was seen across CD4 strata. At national referral hospitals, cases decreased during 2007-2009 but stabilized during 2010-2014.

Conclusions

Despite excellent ART coverage in Botswana, there is still a substantial burden of advanced HIV, with 2013-2014 incidence of CM comparable to pre-ART era rates in South Africa. Our findings suggest that a key population of individuals, often men, is developing advanced disease and associated opportunistic infections due to a failure to effectively engage in care, highlighting the need for differentiated care models.

Decoding HIV resistance: from genotype to therapy

Genetic variation in HIV poses a major challenge for prevention and treatment of the AIDS pandemic. Resistance occurs by mutations in the target proteins that lower affinity for the drug or alter the protein dynamics, thereby enabling viral replication in the presence of the drug. Due to the prevalence of drug-resistant strains, monitoring the genotype of the infecting virus is recommended. Computational approaches for predicting resistance from genotype data and guiding therapy are discussed. Many prediction methods rely on rules derived from known resistance-associated mutations, however, statistical or machine learning can improve the classification accuracy and assess unknown mutations. Adding classifiers such as information on the atomic structure of the protein can further enhance the predictions.

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations

Background

Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.

Methods

An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data.

Results

Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71–0.86) and 0.77 (0.68–0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52–0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01–0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex.

Conclusions

Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.

The prevalence of pulmonary complications after thoracic and abdominal surgery and associated risk factors in patients admitted at a government hospital in Harare, Zimbabwe-a retrospective study

Background

The burden of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa has presented unusual and challenging acute surgical problems across all specialties. Thoraco-abdominal surgery cuts through muscle and thereby disrupts the normal anatomy and activity of the respiratory muscles leading to reduced lung volumes and putting the patients at greater risk of developing post-operative pulmonary complications (PPCs). PPCs remain an important cause of post-operative morbidity, mortality, and impacts on the long-term outcomes of patients post hospital discharge. The objective of the study was to determine the pulmonary complications developing after abdominal and thoracic surgery and the associated risks factors.

Methods

A retrospective records review of all abdominal and thoracic surgery patients admitted at a central hospital from January 2014 to October 2014 was done. Data collected included demographic data, surgical history, comorbidities and the PPCs present.

Results

Out of the 92 patients whose records were reviewed, 55 (59.8%) were males and 84 (91.3%) had abdominal surgery. The mean age of the patients was 42.6 years (SD = 18.4). The common comorbidities were HIV infection noted in 14(15.2%) of the patients and hypertension in 10 (13.0%). Thirty nine (42.4%) developed PPCs and the most common complications were nosocomial pneumonia in 21 (22.8%) patients, ventilator associated pneumonia in 11 (12.0%), and atelectasis in 6 (6.5%) patients. Logistic regression showed that a history of alcohol consumption, prolonged surgery, prolonged stay in hospital or critical care unit, incision type, and comorbidities were significant risk factors for PPCs (p < 0.05). The mortality rate was 10.9%.

Conclusion

PPCs like nosocomial and ventilator associated pneumonia were common and were associated with increased morbidity and adversely affected clinical outcomes of patients. HIV and hypertension presented significant comorbidities which the health team needed to recognize and address. Strategies to reduce the occurrence of PPCs have to be implemented through coordinated efforts by the health practitioners as a team during the entire perioperative period.

The effect of facility-based antiretroviral therapy programs on outpatient services in Kenya and Uganda

Background

Considerable debate exists concerning the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) service scale-up on non-HIV services and overall health system performance in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examined whether ART services affected trends in non-ART outpatient department (OPD) visits in Kenya and Uganda.

Methods

Using a nationally representative sample of health facilities in Kenya and Uganda, we estimated the effect of ART programs on OPD visits from 2007 to 2012. We modeled the annual percent change in non-ART OPD visits using hierarchical mixed-effects linear regressions, controlling for a range of facility characteristics. We used four different constructs of ART services to capture the different ways in which the presence, growth, overall, and relative size of ART programs may affect non-ART OPD services.

Results

Our final sample included 321 health facilities (140 in Kenya and 181 in Uganda). On average, OPD and ART visits increased steadily in Kenya and Uganda between 2007 and 2012. For facilities where ART services were not offered, the average annual increase in OPD visits was 4·2% in Kenya and 13·5% in Uganda. Among facilities that provided ART services, we found average annual OPD volume increases of 7·2% in Kenya and 5·6% in Uganda, with simultaneous annual increases of 13·7% and 12·5% in ART volumes. We did not find a statistically significant relationship between annual changes in OPD services and the presence, growth, overall, or relative size of ART services. However, in a subgroup analysis, we found that Ugandan hospitals that offered ART services had statistically significantly less growth in OPD visits than Ugandan hospitals that did not provide ART services.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that ART services in Kenya and Uganda did not have a statistically significant deleterious effects on OPD services between 2007 and 2012, although subgroup analyses indicate variation by facility type. Our findings are encouraging, particularly given recent recommendations for universal access to ART, demonstrating that expanding ART services is not inherently linked to declines in other health services in sub-Saharan Africa.

Complex immune correlates of protection in HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials

Development of an efficacious HIV-1 vaccine is a major priority for improving human health worldwide. Vaccine-mediated protection against human pathogens can be achieved through elicitation of protective innate, humoral, and cellular responses. Identification of specific immune responses responsible for pathogen protection enables vaccine development and provides insights into host defenses against pathogens and the immunological mechanisms that most effectively fight infection. Defining immunological correlates of transmission risk in preclinical and clinical HIV-1 vaccine trials has moved the HIV-1 vaccine development field forward and directed new candidate vaccine development. Immune correlate studies are providing novel hypotheses about immunological mechanisms that may be responsible for preventing HIV-1 acquisition. Recent results from HIV-1 immune correlates work has demonstrated that there are multiple types of immune responses that together, comprise an immune correlate-thus implicating polyfunctional immune control of HIV-1 transmission. An in depth understanding of these complex immunological mechanisms of protection against HIV-1 will accelerate the development of an efficacious HIV-1 vaccine.

Multiple disparities in adult mortality in relation to social and health care perspective: results from different data sources

BACKGROUND

Disparity in adult mortality (AM) with reference to social dynamics and health care has not been sufficiently examined. This study aimed to identify the gap in the understanding of AM in relation to religion, political stability, economic level, and universal health coverage (UHC).

METHODS

A cross-national study was performed with different sources of data, using the administrative record linkage theory. Data was created from the 2013 World Bank data catalogue by region, The Economist (Political instability index 2013), Stuckler David et al. (Universal health coverage, 2010), and religious categories of all UN country members. Descriptive statistics, a t-test, an ANOVA followed by a post hoc test, and a linear regression were used where applicable.

RESULT

The average AM rate for males and females was 0.20 ± 0.10 and 0.14 ± 0.10, respectively. There was high disparity of AM between countries with and without UHC and between groups with low and high income. UHC and political stability would significantly reduce AMR by >0.41 in both sexes and high economic status would reduce male AMR by 0.44, and female AMR by 0.70.

CONCLUSIONS

It can be concluded that effective health care; UHC and political stability significantly reduce AM.

Pediatric HIV care and treatment services in Tanzania: implications for survival

BACKGROUND

Improving child survival for HIV-infected children remains an important health agenda. We present progress regarding care and treatment services to HIV infected children in Tanzania.

METHODS

The National AIDS Control Programme Care and Treatment (CTC 2) database was used to obtain information of all children aged 0-14yearsenrolled in the HIV Care and Treatment Program between January 2011 and December 2014. We assessed eligibility for ART, time from enrolment to ART initiation, nutritional status, and mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods.

RESULTS

A total of 29,531 (14,304 boys and 15,227 girls) ART-naive children aged 0-14 years were enrolled during the period, approximately 6700 to 8000 children per year. The male to female ratio was 48:50. At enrolment 72% were eligible for ART, 2-3% of children were positive for TB, and 2-4% were severely malnourished. Between 2011 and 2014, 2368 (8%) died, 9243 (31%) were Lost to Follow-up and 17,920 (61%) were on care or ART. The probability of death was 31% (95% CI 26-35), 43% (40-47), 52% (49-55) and 61% (58-64) by 1,2, 5 and 10 years of age, respectively. The hazard of death was greatest at very young ages (<2 years old), and decreased sharply by 4 years old. Children who were on ART had around 10-15% higher survival over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant progress has been made regarding provision of paediatric HIV care and treatment in Tanzania. On average 7000 children are enrolled annually, and that approximately two thirds of children diagnosed under the age of 2 years were initiated on ART within a month. Provision of ART as soon as the child is diagnosed is the biggest factor in improving survival. However we noted that i) most children had advanced disease at the time of enrolment ii) approximately two-thirds of children were missing a baseline CD4 measurement and only 35% of children had either a CD4 count or percentage recorded, indicating limited access to CD4 testing services, and iii) 31% were lost to follow-up (LTFU). These challenges need to be addressed to improve early detection, enrolment and retention of HIV-infected children into care and improve documentation of services offered.

High magnitude of under nutrition among HIV infected adults who have not started ART in Tanzania--a call to include nutrition care and treatment in the test and treat model

Background

Undernutrition among people living with HIV (PLWHIV) can be ameliorated if nutrition specific and sensitive interventions are integrated into their HIV care and treatment centers (CTC). Integrated care is lacking despite expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, representing a substantial missed opportunity. This research aims to examine nutritional status and associated risk factors among HIV-positive adults prior to ART initiation in Tanzania in order to characterize existing gaps and inform early integration of nutrition care into CTC.

Methods

We analyzed data from 3993 pre-ART adults living with HIV enrolled in CTCs within the Trial of Vitamin (TOV3) and progression of HIV/AIDS study in Dar es salaam, Tanzania. The primary outcome for this analysis was undernutrition, measured as body mass index (BMI) below 18.5 kg/m². We conducted descriptive analyses of baseline characteristics and utilized multiple logistic regression to determine independent factors associated with pre-ART undernutrition.

Results

Undernutrition was prevalent in about 27.7% of pre-ART adults, with a significantly higher magnitude among males compared to females (30% vs. 26.6%, p < 0.025). Severe undernutrition (BMI < 16.0 kg/m²) was prevalent in one in four persons, with a trend toward higher magnitudes among females (26.2% vs. 21.1% p = 0.123). Undernutrition was also more prevalent among younger adults (p < 0.001), those with lower wealth quintiles (p = 0.003), and those with advanced HIV clinical stage (p < 0.001). Pre-ART adults presented with poor feeding practices, hallmarked by low dietary diversity scores and infrequent consumption of proteins, vegetables, and fruits. After adjusting for confounders and important co-variates, pre-ART undernutrition was associated with younger age, low wealth indices, advanced clinical stage, and low dietary diversity.

Conclusions

One in every four pre-ART PLWHIV presented with undernutrition in Dar es salaam, Tanzania. Risk factors for undernourishment included younger age, lower household income, advanced HIV clinical stage, and lower dietary diversity score. Knowledge of the prevalence and prevailing risk factors for undernutrition among pre-ART PLWHIV should guide targeted, early integration of nutrition interventions into routine HIV care and treatment in high-prevalence, low-income settings such as Tanzania.

Health insurance for patients with HIV/AIDS in Vietnam: coverage and barriers

Background

Health insurance (HI) plays an important role in ensuring the financial equity by the risk pooling mechanism and reducing the economic burden of healthcare for HIV/AIDS patients. However, there is a lack of evidence to clearly understand HI coverage in regard to people living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted this study to explore the coverage and barriers of HI among PLWH in Vietnam.

Methods

A cross- sectional study was conducted in multi-sites including 3 hospitals and 5 outpatient clinics in Hanoi and Nam Dinh in 2013. A convenience sampling approach was used to recruit the participants. A structured questionnaire was used to examine current status of using HI, lacking information about HI, feeling difficulties in accessing, using and paying HI. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to examine factors associated with HI use and barriers.

Results

Among 1133 HIV/AIDS patients, the coverage of HI was 46.0%. About 36.4% lacked information about HI, 21.0% felt difficulty in accessing HI. Meanwhile, the proportions of patients feeling difficulty in using HI and paying HI were 19.9 and 18.6%, respectively. Multivariate regression found that lacking information about HI and feeling difficulty in accessing HI were main barriers of having HI among PLWH.

Conclusion

This study found a high proportion of PLWH was not covered by HI. Lacking information about HI and feeling difficulty in accessing HI were primary barriers that should be resolved via timely educational campaigns and consultations as well as supports from families in order to expand effectively the HI coverage.

Enhanced Aortic Reflected Wave Magnitude Accounts for the Impact of Female Gender on Aortic Pressure Augmentation in a Group of African Ancestry

BACKGROUND

Aortic reflected wave magnitude (RM) may not account for sex-specific differences in aortic pressure augmentation in Caucasians. However, aortic reflected waves are greater in groups of African descent than other ethnic groups. We determined whether RM or alternative factors explain the impact of sex on aortic augmented pressure (Pa) in participants of African ancestry.

METHODS

We assessed aortic function (radial applanation tonometry, SphygmoCor) in 1,197 randomly recruited community participants of African ancestry (age ≥ 16 years). Aortic forward (Pf) and backward (Pb) wave separation was performed assuming an aortic triangular flow wave validated against aortic velocity measurements.

RESULTS

Across the adult lifespan, women had greater multivariate-adjusted augmentation index (AIx) and Pa. This was associated with multivariate-adjusted age-related increases in Pb, RM (Pb/Pf), and time to the peak of Pf and decreases in backward wave foot time; but not increases in Pf. With adjustors, Pa was associated with female gender (β-coefficient = 3.81 ± 0.34), a relationship which was markedly attenuated by adjustments for RM (β-coefficient = 1.78 ± 0.31, P < 0.0001 vs. without adjustments for RM), and Pb (β-coefficient = 2.05 ± 0.19, P < 0.0001 vs. without adjustments for Pb), but not by adjustments for Pf, time to the peak of Pf, or backward wave foot time. Similarly, AIx was associated with female gender, a relationship which was markedly attenuated by adjustments for RM, Pb, and backward wave foot time, but not alternative factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to reports in alternative populations, the relationship between aortic pressure augmentation and female gender in participants of African descent is accounted for mainly by increases in RM.

Cervical cancer control in HIV-infected women: Past, present and future

Since the initial recognition of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in 1981, an increased burden of cervical cancer was identified among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women. Introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreased risks of opportunistic infections and improved overall survival. HIV-infected women are living longer. Introduction of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, cervical cancer screening and early diagnosis provide opportunities to reduce cervical cancer associated mortality. In line with 2030 Sustainable Development Goals to reduce mortality from non-communicable diseases, increased efforts need to focus on high burden countries within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite limitations of resources in SSA, opportunities exist to improve cancer control. This article reviews advancements in cervical cancer control in HIV-positive women.

Integrating cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, and diabetes with HIV services: a systematic review

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), hypertension and diabetes together with HIV infection are among the major public health concerns worldwide. Health services for HIV and NCDs require health systems that provide for people's chronic care needs, which present an opportunity to coordinate efforts and create synergies between programs to benefit people living with HIV and/or AIDS and NCDs. This review included studies that reported service integration for HIV and/or AIDS with coronary heart diseases, chronic CVD, cerebrovascular diseases (stroke), hypertension or diabetes. We searched multiple databases from inception until October 2015. Articles were screened independently by two reviewers and assessed for risk of bias. 11,057 records were identified with 7,616 after duplicate removal. After screening titles and abstracts, 14 papers addressing 17 distinct interventions met the inclusion criteria. We categorized integration models by diseases (HIV with diabetes, HIV with hypertension and diabetes, HIV with CVD and finally HIV with hypertension and CVD and diabetes). Models also looked at integration from micro (patient focused integration) to macro (system level integrations). Most reported integration of hypertension and diabetes with HIV and AIDS services and described multidisciplinary collaboration, shared protocols, and incorporating screening activities into community campaigns. Integration took place exclusively at the meso-level, with no micro- or macro-level integrations described. Most were descriptive studies, with one cohort study reporting evaluative outcomes. Several innovative initiatives were identified and studies showed that CVD and HIV service integration is feasible. Integration should build on existing protocols and use the community as a locus for advocacy and health services, while promoting multidisciplinary teams, including greater involvement of pharmacists. There is a need for robust and well-designed studies at all levels - particularly macro-level studies, research looking at long-term outcomes of integration, and research in a more diverse range of countries.

Factors associated with early menopause among women in Nigeria

OBJECTIVES

Effective antiretroviral therapy has prolonged the survival of patients with HIV. Accordingly, studies of the consequences of ageing are increasingly important. We determined the prevalence of early menopause (EM) and its associated factors in a cohort of HIV-infected and HIV-negative controls in Jos, Nigeria.

METHODS

HIV-infected women accessing care in an ambulatory setting and their negative counterparts from the general population were included. Menopause was defined as having gone one year since the last menstrual period. EM was defined as the onset of menopause at ≤45 years of age. Baseline characteristics were compared and logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors independently associated with EM.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 253 women included, 58 attained menopause early, giving an EM prevalence of 22.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.9-28.6%). Women with EM were younger (P<0.001) and had been infected with HIV for a shorter period (P=0.007). Baseline CD4+ cell count (P=0.66) and viral load (P=0.15) were similar among those with and without EM. For all subjects, HIV infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR}=10.95, 95% CI 1.39-86.33) and sexual activity (AOR=2.37, 95% CI 1.24-4.52) were associated with EM while early menarche (AOR=14.88, 95% CI 1.37-161.10) and sexual activity (AOR=2.02, 95% CI 1.03-3.96) were independently associated with EM.

CONCLUSION

Over a quarter of our postmenopausal women attained menopause early. No HIV-related factor predicted EM in this study. A better understanding of ageing in these women is important to determine a more appropriate disease-management approach during this period of life.

Does the Strategy of Risk Group Testing for Hepatitis C Hit the Target?

In the European Union, it is estimated that there are 5.5 million individuals with chronic infection of hepatitis C. Intravenous drug abuse is undoubtedly the key source of the hepatitis C epidemic in Europe and the most efficient mode of transmission of HCV infections (primarily due to short incubation time, but also because the virus is introduced directly into the blood stream with the infected needle). Potentially high-risk and vulnerable populations in Europe (and the world) include immigrants, prisoners, sex workers, men having sex with men, individuals infected with HIV, psychoactive substance users etc. Since there is a lack of direct evidence of clinical benefits of HCV testing, decisions related to testing are made based on indirect evidence. Clinical practice has shown that HCV antibody tests are mostly adequate for identification of HCV infection, but the problem is that this testing strategy does not hit the target. As a result of this health care system strategy, a large number of infected patients remain undetected or they are diagnosed late. There is only a vague link between screening and treatment outcomes since there is a lack of evidence on transmission risks, multiple causes, risk behavior, ways of reaching screening decisions, treatment efficiency, etc. According to results of limited number of studies it can be concluded that there is a need to develop targeted programmes for detection of HCV and other infections, but there also a need to decrease potential harms.

Clinical and public health implications of acute and early HIV detection and treatment: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The unchanged global HIV incidence may be related to ignoring acute HIV infection (AHI). This scoping review examines diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications of identifying and treating persons with AHI.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, in addition to hand-review of key journals identifying research pertaining to AHI detection and treatment. We focused on the relative contribution of AHI to transmission and the diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications. We prioritized research from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published in the last fifteen years.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Extensive AHI research and limited routine AHI detection and treatment have begun in LMIC. Diagnostic challenges include ease-of-use, suitability for application and distribution in LMIC, and throughput for high-volume testing. Risk score algorithms have been used in LMIC to screen for AHI among individuals with behavioural and clinical characteristics more often associated with AHI. However, algorithms have not been implemented outside research settings. From a clinical perspective, there are substantial immunological and virological benefits to identifying and treating persons with AHI - evading the irreversible damage to host immune systems and seeding of viral reservoirs that occurs during untreated acute infection. The therapeutic benefits require rapid initiation of antiretrovirals, a logistical challenge in the absence of point-of-care testing. From a public health perspective, AHI diagnosis and treatment is critical to: decrease transmission via viral load reduction and behavioural interventions; improve pre-exposure prophylaxis outcomes by avoiding treatment initiation for HIV-seronegative persons with AHI; and, enhance partner services via notification for persons recently exposed or likely transmitting.

CONCLUSIONS

There are undeniable clinical and public health benefits to AHI detection and treatment, but also substantial diagnostic and logistical barriers to implementation and scale-up. Effective early ART initiation may be critical for HIV eradication efforts, but widespread use in LMIC requires simple and accurate diagnostic tools. Implementation research is critical to facilitate sustainable integration of AHI detection and treatment into existing health systems and will be essential for prospective evaluation of testing algorithms, point-of-care diagnostics, and efficacious and effective first-line regimens.

Efficient and unbiased metagenomic recovery of RNA virus genomes from human plasma samples

RNA viruses cause significant human pathology and are responsible for the majority of emerging zoonoses. Mainstream diagnostic assays are challenged by their intrinsic diversity, leading to false negatives and incomplete characterisation. New sequencing techniques are expanding our ability to agnostically interrogate nucleic acids within diverse sample types, but in the clinical setting are limited by overwhelming host material and ultra-low target frequency. Through selective host RNA depletion and compensatory protocol adjustments for ultra-low RNA inputs, we are able to detect three major blood-borne RNA viruses – HIV, HCV and HEV. We recovered complete genomes and up to 43% of the genome from samples with viral loads of 10⁴ and 10³ IU/ml respectively. Additionally, we demonstrated the utility of this method in detecting and characterising members of diverse RNA virus families within a human plasma background, some present at very low levels. By applying this method to a patient sample series, we have simultaneously determined the full genome of both a novel subtype of HCV genotype 6, and a co-infecting human pegivirus. This method builds upon earlier RNA metagenomic techniques and can play an important role in the surveillance and diagnostics of blood-borne viruses.

Adverse reactions to antiretroviral therapy: a prevalent concern

The risk–benefit ratio of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is usually considered favorable due to the urgent need to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Current studies have shown that combined ART (two or more drugs, from two different classes) is the most effective, with benefits that go beyond clinical management of the disease playing a crucial role in preventing HIV transmission. Therefore, early identification of HIV infection followed by immediate initiation of ART has been encouraged worldwide. However, the success of this strategy has been threatened by poor engagement of patients in HIV care, which may be related to drug harms. In addition, ART is required for the life course, creating the potential for adverse drug reactions (e.g., lipodystrophies). Therefore, adverse drug reactions are a prevalent concern among people living with HIV/AIDS, even in the current era of early initiation of ART (“early ART”), with most drugs considered much safer than those used in previous eras. Accurate diagnosis, recording, and reporting, followed up with proper management and prevention, and intensive surveillance, of new and known adverse reactions to ART, should be strongly encouraged as part of the care continuum.

Prevalence, trend and risk factors for antiretroviral therapy discontinuation among HIV-infected adults in Ethiopia in 2003-2015

BACKGROUND

It is well acknowledged that antiretroviral therapy (ART) discontinuation hampers the progress towards achieving the UNAIDS treatment targets that aim to treat 90% of HIV diagnosed patients and achieve viral suppression for 90% of those on treatment. Nevertheless, the magnitude, trend and risk factors for ART discontinuation have not been explored extensively. We carried out a retrospective data analysis to assess prevalence, trend and risk factors for ART discontinuation among adults in Southwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

12 years retrospective cohort analysis was performed with 4900 HIV-infected adult patients between 21 June 2003 and 15 March 2015 registered at the ART clinic at Jimma University Teaching Hospital. ART discontinuation could be loss to follow-up, defaulting and/or stopping medication while remaining in care. Because data for 2003 and 2015 were incomplete, the 10 years data were used to describe trends for ART discontinuation using a line graph. We used binary logistic regression to identify factors that were correlated with ART discontinuation. To handle missing data, we applied multiple imputations assuming missing at random pattern.

RESULTS

In total, 4900 adult patients enrolled on ART, of whom 1090 (22.3%) had discontinued, 954 (19.5%) had transferred out, 300 (6.1%) had died, 2517 (51.4%) were alive and on ART, and the remaining 39 (0.8%) had unknown outcome status. The trend of ART discontinuation showed an upward direction in the recent times and reached a peak, accounting for a magnitude of 10%, in 2004 and 2005. Being a female (AOR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.7-2.8), having an immunological failure (AOR = 2.3, 1.9-8.2), having tuberculosis/HIV co-infection (AOR = 1.5, 1.1-2.1) and no previous history of HIV testing (AOR = 1.8, 1.4-2.9) were the risk factors for ART discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

One out of five adults had discontinued from ART, and the trend of ART discontinuation increased recently. Discontinued adults were more likely to be females, tuberculosis/HIV co-infected, with immunological failure and no history of HIV testing. Therefore, it is vital to implement effective programs such as community ART distribution and linkage-case-management to enhance ART linkage and retention.

Population-level impact of an accelerated HIV response plan to reach the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in Côte d'Ivoire: Insights from mathematical modeling

BACKGROUND

National responses will need to be markedly accelerated to achieve the ambitious target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This target aims for 90% of HIV-positive individuals to be aware of their status, for 90% of those aware to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and for 90% of those on treatment to have a suppressed viral load by 2020, with each individual target reaching 95% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact of various treatment-as-prevention scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire, one of the countries with the highest HIV incidence in West Africa, with unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs, and where key populations are important to the broader HIV epidemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

An age-stratified dynamic model was developed and calibrated to epidemiological and programmatic data using a Bayesian framework. The model represents sexual and vertical HIV transmission in the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). We estimated the impact of scaling up interventions to reach the UNAIDS targets, as well as the impact of 8 other scenarios, on HIV transmission in adults and children, compared to our baseline scenario that maintains 2015 rates of testing, ART initiation, ART discontinuation, treatment failure, and levels of condom use. In 2015, we estimated that 52% (95% credible intervals: 46%-58%) of HIV-positive individuals were aware of their status, 72% (57%-82%) of those aware were on ART, and 77% (74%-79%) of those on ART were virologically suppressed. Reaching the UNAIDS targets on time would avert 50% (42%-60%) of new HIV infections over 2015-2030 compared to 30% (25%-36%) if the 90-90-90 target is reached in 2025. Attaining the UNAIDS targets in FSW, their clients, and MSM (but not in the rest of the population) would avert a similar fraction of new infections (30%; 21%-39%). A 25-percentage-point drop in condom use from the 2015 levels among FSW and MSM would reduce the impact of reaching the UNAIDS targets, with 38% (26%-51%) of infections averted. The study's main limitation is that homogenous spatial coverage of interventions was assumed, and future lines of inquiry should examine how geographical prioritization could affect HIV transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Maximizing the impact of the UNAIDS targets will require rapid scale-up of interventions, particularly testing, ART initiation, and limiting ART discontinuation. Reaching clients of FSW, as well as key populations, can efficiently reduce transmission. Sustaining the high condom-use levels among key populations should remain an important prevention pillar.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study

Importance

Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective

To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review

Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

Findings

Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

Conclusions and Relevance

Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

Chronic kidney disease in low-income to middle-income countries: the case for increased screening

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is fast becoming a major public health issue, disproportionately burdening low-income to middle-income countries, where detection rates remain low. We critically assessed the extant literature on CKD screening in low-income to middle-income countries. We performed a PubMed search, up to September 2016, for studies on CKD screening in low-income to middle-income countries. Relevant studies were summarised through key questions derived from the Wilson and Jungner criteria. We found that low-income to middle-income countries are ill-equipped to deal with the devastating consequences of CKD, particularly the late stages of the disease. There are acceptable and relatively simple tools that can aid CKD screening in these countries. Screening should primarily include high-risk individuals (those with hypertension, type 2 diabetes, HIV infection or aged >60 years), but also extend to those with suboptimal levels of risk (eg, prediabetes and prehypertension). Since screening for hypertension, type 2 diabetes and HIV infection is already included in clinical practice guidelines in resource-poor settings, it is conceivable to couple this with simple CKD screening tests. Effective implementation of CKD screening remains a challenge, and the cost-effectiveness of such an undertaking largely remains to be explored. In conclusion, for many compelling reasons, screening for CKD should be a policy priority in low-income to middle-income countries, as early intervention is likely to be effective in reducing the high burden of morbidity and mortality from CKD. This will help health systems to achieve cost-effective prevention.

Exploring evidence for behavioral risk compensation among participants in an HIV vaccine clinical trial

BACKGROUND

HIV vaccine trial participants may engage in behavioral risk compensation due to a false sense of protection. We conducted an ancillary study of an HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) vaccine efficacy trial to explore risk compensation among trial participants compared to persons who were willing to participate but ineligible based on previous exposure to the Ad5 virus (Ad5+) across three timepoints.

METHODS

Participants were drawn from the Atlanta, GA site of the HVTN 505 vaccine trial. From 2011-2013, all persons who met prescreening criteria for the clinical trial and presented for Ad5 antibody testing were invited to participate in the ancillary study. Data were collected from vaccine trial participants (n=51) and Ad5+ participants (n=60) via online surveys across three timepoints: baseline, T2 (after trial participants received 2/4 injections) and T3 (after trial participants received 4/4 injections). Data analyses assessed demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral differences at baseline and changes at each timepoint.

RESULTS

At baseline, Ad5+ participants were less likely to have some college education (p=0.024) or health insurance (p=0.008), and were more likely to want to participate in the vaccine trial "to feel safer having unprotected sex" (p=0.005). Among vaccine trial participants, unprotected anal sex with a casual partner (p=0.05), HIV transmission worry (p=0.033), and perceived chance of getting HIV (p=0.027), decreased across timepoints.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings suggest that persons with previous exposure to Ad5 may be systematically different from their Ad5-negative peers. Unprotected anal sex with a casual partner significantly decreased among HIV vaccine trial participants, as did HIV worry and perceived chance of getting HIV. Findings did not support evidence of risk compensation among HIV vaccine trial participants compared to Ad5+ participants.

Assessment of the Cavidi ExaVir Load Assay for Monitoring Plasma Viral Load in HIV-2-Infected Patients

HIV plasma viral load is an established marker of disease progression and of response to antiretroviral therapy, but currently there is no commercial assay validated for the quantification of viral load in HIV-2-infected individuals. We sought to make the first clinical evaluation of Cavidi ExaVir Load (version 3) in HIV-2-infected patients. Samples were collected from a total of 102 individuals living in Cape Verde, and the HIV-2 viral load was quantified by both ExaVir Load and a reference in-house real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) used in Portugal in 91 samples. The associations between viral load and clinical prognostic variables (CD4⁺ T cell counts and antiretroviral therapy status) were similar for measurements obtained using ExaVir Load and qPCR. There was no difference between the two methods in the capacity to discriminate between nonquantifiable and quantifiable HIV-2 in the plasma. In samples with an HIV-2 viral load quantifiable by both methods (n = 27), the measurements were highly correlated (Pearson r = 0.908), but the ExaVir Load values were systematically higher relative to those determined by qPCR (median difference, 0.942 log₁₀ copies/ml). A regression model was derived that enables the conversion of ExaVir Load results to those that would have been obtained by the reference qPCR. In conclusion, ExaVir Load version 3 is a reliable commercial assay to measure viral load in HIV-2-infected patients and therefore a valuable alternative to the in-house assays in current use.

Humoral responses against HIV in male genital tract: role in sexual transmission and perspectives for preventive strategies

: Most new HIV infections occur via sexual routes. The induction of protective anti-HIV antibodies in genital mucosa is an important step toward reducing HIV transmission. Mucosal anti-HIV antibodies may play a dual role by either protecting against HIV transmission or facilitating it. Protective properties against HIV of mucosal IgGs and IgAs exhibiting neutralizing or antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity activities have been described in highly exposed seronegative individuals. Conversely, some IgGs may facilitate the crossing of HIV free-particles through epithelial barriers by transcytosis. Hence knowledge of the mechanisms underlying anti-HIV antibody production in the genital tract and their exact role in sexual transmission may help to develop appropriate preventive strategies based on passive immunization or mucosal vaccination approaches. Our review focuses on the characteristics of the humoral immune responses against HIV in the male genital tract and related prevention strategies.

Acute Care Management of the HIV-Infected Patient: A Report from the HIV Practice and Research Network of the American College of Clinical Pharmacy

OBJECTIVE

Patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) admitted to the hospital have complex antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens with an increased medication error rate upon admission. This report provides a resource for clinicians managing HIV-infected patients and ART in the inpatient setting.

METHODS

A survey of the authors was conducted to evaluate common issues that arise during an acute hospitalization for HIV-infected patients. After a group consensus, a review of the medical literature was performed to determine the supporting evidence for the following HIV-associated hospital queries: admission/discharge orders, antiretroviral hospital formularies, laboratory monitoring, altered hepatic/renal function, drug-drug interactions (DDIs), enteral administration, and therapeutic drug monitoring.

RESULTS

With any hospital admission for an HIV-infected patient, a specific set of procedures should be followed including a thorough admission medication history and communication with the ambulatory HIV provider to avoid omissions or substitutions in the ART regimen. DDIs are common and should be reviewed at all transitions of care during the hospital admission. ART may be continued if enteral nutrition with a feeding tube is deemed necessary, but the entire regimen should be discontinued if no oral access is available for a prolonged period. Therapeutic drug monitoring is not generally recommended but, if available, should be considered in unique clinical scenarios where antiretroviral pharmacokinetics are difficult to predict. ART may need adjustment if hepatic or renal insufficiency ensues.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of hospitalized patients with HIV is highly complex. HIV-infected patients are at high risk for medication errors during various transitions of care. Baseline knowledge of the principles of antiretroviral pharmacotherapy is necessary for clinicians managing acutely ill HIV-infected patients to avoid medication errors, identify DDIs, and correctly dose medications if organ dysfunction arises. Timely ambulatory follow-up is essential to prevent readmissions and facilitate improved transitions of care.

Comparison of the vaginal environment in rhesus and cynomolgus macaques pre- and post-lactobacillus colonization

BACKGROUND

Rhesus and cynomologus macaques are valuable animal models for the study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention strategies. However, for such studies focused on the vaginal route of infection, differences in vaginal environment may have deterministic impact on the outcome of such prevention, providing the rationale for this study.

METHODS

We tested the vaginal environment of rhesus and cynomolgus macaques longitudinally to characterize the normal microflora based on Nugent scores and pH. This evaluation was extended after colonization of the vaginal space with Lactobacilli in an effort to recreate NHP models representing the healthy human vaginal environment.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Nugent scores and pH differed significantly between species, although data from both species were suggestive of stable bacterial vaginosis. Colonization with Lactobacilli was successful in both species leading to lower Nugent score and pH, although rhesus macaques appeared better able to sustain Lactobacillus spp over time.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C infection in persons living with HIV enrolled in care in Rwanda

Background

Hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) are important causes of morbidity and mortality in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The burden of these co-infections in sub-Saharan Africa is still unclear. We estimated the prevalence of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and hepatitis C antibody (HCVAb) among HIV-infected individuals in Rwanda and identified factors associated with infection.

Methods

Between January 2016 and June 2016, we performed systematic screening for HBsAg and HCVAb among HIV-positive individuals enrolled at public and private HIV facilities across Rwanda. Results were analyzed to determine marker prevalence and variability by demographic factors.

Results

Overall, among 117,258 individuals tested, the prevalence of HBsAg and HCVAb was 4.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] (4.2–4.4) and 4.6% (95% CI 4.5–4.7) respectively; 182 (0.2%) HIV+ individuals were co-infected with HBsAg and HCVAb. Prevalence was higher in males (HBsAg, 5.4% [5.1–5.6] vs. 3.7% [3.5–3.8]; HCVAb, 5.0% [4.8–5.2] vs. 4.4% [4.3–4.6]) and increased with age; HCVAb prevalence was significantly higher in people aged ≥65 years (17.8% [16.4–19.2]). Prevalence varied geographically.

Conclusion

HBV and HCV co-infections are common among HIV-infected individuals in Rwanda. It is important that viral hepatitis prevention and treatment activities are scaled-up to control further transmission and reduce the burden in this population. Particular efforts should be made to conduct targeted screening of males and the older population. Further assessment is required to determine rates of HBV and HCV chronicity among HIV-infected individuals and identify effective strategies to link individuals to care and treatment.

Carga de doença por infecções do trato respiratório inferior no Brasil, 1990 a 2015: estimativas do estudo Global Burden of Disease 2015

RESUMO: Introdução: Infecções do trato respiratório inferior (ITRi) apresentam incidência e mortalidade significativas no mundo. Este artigo apresenta o impacto das ITRi na carga de doença, segundo as métricas utilizadas no estudo Global Burden of Disease 2015 (GBD 2015) para o Brasil, em 1990 e 2015. Métodos: Análise de estimativas do GBD 2015: anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura (YLLs), anos vividos com incapacidade (YLDs) e anos de vida perdidos por morte ou incapacidade (DALYs = YLLs + YLDs). Resultados: As ITRi foram a terceira causa de mortalidade no Brasil em 1990 e 2015, com 63,5 e 47,0 mortes/100 mil habitantes, respectivamente. Embora o número absoluto de óbitos tenha aumentado 26,8%, houve redução de 25,5% nas taxas de mortalidade padronizadas por idade, sendo a redução mais marcante em menores de 5 anos. Também houve redução progressiva da carga da doença, expressa em DALYs. Discussão: Apesar da redução da carga da doença no período, as ITRi foram importante causa de incapacidade e a terceira causa de mortes no Brasil em 2015. O aumento do número de óbitos ocorreu devido ao aumento e envelhecimento populacional. A redução das taxas de mortalidade acompanhou a melhora das condições socioeconômicas, do acesso mais amplo aos cuidados de saúde, da disponibilidade nacional de antibióticos e das políticas de vacinação adotadas no país. Conclusão: Apesar das dificuldades socioeconômicas vigentes, constatou-se uma redução progressiva da carga das ITRi, principalmente na mortalidade e na incapacidade, e entre os menores de cinco anos de idade.

Framing Mechanisms Linking HIV-Related Stigma, Adherence to Treatment, and Health Outcomes

We present a conceptual framework that highlights how unique dimensions of individual-level HIV-related stigma (perceived community stigma, experienced stigma, internalized stigma, and anticipated stigma) might differently affect the health of those living with HIV. HIV-related stigma is recognized as a barrier to both HIV prevention and engagement in HIV care, but little is known about the mechanisms through which stigma leads to worse health behaviors or outcomes. Our conceptual framework posits that, in the context of intersectional and structural stigmas, individual-level dimensions of HIV-related stigma operate through interpersonal factors, mental health, psychological resources, and biological stress pathways. A conceptual framework that encompasses recent advances in stigma science can inform future research and interventions aiming to address stigma as a driver of HIV-related health.

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum - used routinely to produce national HIV estimates - could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level.

DESIGN

The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates.

METHODS

Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates.

RESULTS

Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies - possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents.

CONCLUSION

The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics.

Accounting for nonsampling error in estimates of HIV epidemic trends from antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance

Objectives

The aim of the study was to propose and demonstrate an approach to allow additional nonsampling uncertainty about HIV prevalence measured at antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) in model-based inferences about trends in HIV incidence and prevalence.

Design

Mathematical model fitted to surveillance data with Bayesian inference.

Methods

We introduce a variance inflation parameter σinfl2 that accounts for the uncertainty of nonsampling errors in ANC-SS prevalence. It is additive to the sampling error variance. Three approaches are tested for estimating σinfl2 using ANC-SS and household survey data from 40 subnational regions in nine countries in sub-Saharan, as defined in UNAIDS 2016 estimates. Methods were compared using in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of ANC-SS data, fit to household survey prevalence data, and the computational implications.

Results

Introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2 increased the error variance around ANC-SS prevalence observations by a median of 2.7 times (interquartile range 1.9–3.8). Using only sampling error in ANC-SS prevalence ( σinfl2=0), coverage of 95% prediction intervals was 69% in out-of-sample prediction tests. This increased to 90% after introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2. The revised probabilistic model improved model fit to household survey prevalence and increased epidemic uncertainty intervals most during the early epidemic period before 2005. Estimating σinfl2 did not increase the computational cost of model fitting.

Conclusions: We recommend estimating nonsampling error in ANC-SS as an additional parameter in Bayesian inference using the Estimation and Projection Package model. This approach may prove useful for incorporating other data sources such as routine prevalence from Prevention of mother-to-child transmission testing into future epidemic estimates.

Improvements in Spectrum's fit to program data tool

OBJECTIVE

The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package (Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA) is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with program and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or people living with HIV and AIDS related deaths. This article describes development and application of the fit to program data (FPD) tool in Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS' 2016 estimates round.

METHODS

In the FPD tool, HIV incidence trends are described as a simple or double logistic function. Function parameters are estimated from historical program data on newly reported HIV cases, people living with HIV or AIDS-related deaths. Inputs can be adjusted for proportions undiagnosed or misclassified deaths. Maximum likelihood estimation or minimum chi-squared distance methods are used to identify the best fitting curve. Asymptotic properties of the estimators from these fits are used to estimate uncertainty.

RESULTS

The FPD tool was used to fit incidence for 62 countries in 2016. Maximum likelihood and minimum chi-squared distance methods gave similar results. A double logistic curve adequately described observed trends in all but four countries where a simple logistic curve performed better.

CONCLUSION

Robust HIV-related program and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries, whereas HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, the FPD tool offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating HIV incidence trends.

Significant association between perceived HIV related stigma and late presentation for HIV/AIDS care in low and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Late presentation for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is a major impediment for the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes. The role that stigma plays as a potential barrier to timely diagnosis and treatment of HIV among people living with HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) is ambivalent. This review aimed to assess the best available evidence regarding the association between perceived HIV related stigma and time to present for HIV/AIDS care.

METHODS

Quantitative studies conducted in English language between 2002 and 2016 that evaluated the association between HIV related stigma and late presentation for HIV care were sought across four major databases. This review considered studies that included the following outcome: 'late HIV testing', 'late HIV diagnosis' and 'late presentation for HIV care after testing'. Data were extracted using a standardized Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) data extraction tool. Meta- analysis was undertaken using Revman-5 software. I2 and chi-square test were used to assess heterogeneity. Summary statistics were expressed as pooled odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals and corresponding p-value.

RESULTS

Ten studies from low- and middle- income countries met the search criteria, including six (6) and four (4) case control studies and cross-sectional studies respectively. The total sample size in the included studies was 3,788 participants. Half (5) of the studies reported a significant association between stigma and late presentation for HIV care. The meta-analytical association showed that people who perceived high HIV related stigma had two times more probability of late presentation for HIV care than who perceived low stigma (pooled odds ratio = 2.4; 95%CI: 1.6-3.6, I2 = 79%).

CONCLUSIONS

High perceptions of HIV related stigma influenced timely presentation for HIV care. In order to avoid late HIV care presentation due the fear of stigma among patients, health professionals should play a key role in informing and counselling patients on the benefits of early HIV testing or early entry to HIV care. Additionally, linking the systems and positive case tracing after HIV testing should be strengthened.

Using geospatial mapping to design HIV elimination strategies for sub-Saharan Africa

Treatment as prevention (TasP) has been proposed by the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) as a global strategy for eliminating HIV. The rationale is that treating individuals reduces their infectivity. We present a geostatistical framework for designing TasP-based HIV elimination strategies in sub-Saharan Africa. We focused on Lesotho, where ~25% of the population is infected. We constructed a density of infection map by gridding high-resolution demographic data and spatially smoothing georeferenced HIV testing data. The map revealed the countrywide geographic dispersion pattern of HIV-infected individuals. We found that ~20% of the HIV-infected population lives in urban areas and that almost all rural communities have at least one HIV-infected individual. We used the map to design an optimal elimination strategy and identified which communities should use TasP. This strategy minimized the area that needed to be covered to find and treat HIV-infected individuals. We show that UNAIDS's elimination strategy would not be feasible in Lesotho because it would require deploying treatment in areas where there are ~4 infected individuals/km2 Our results show that the spatial dispersion of Lesotho's population hinders, and may even prevent, the elimination of HIV.

Recent advances in understanding hypertension development in sub-Saharan Africa

Consistent reports indicate that hypertension is a particularly common finding in black populations. Hypertension occurs at younger ages and is often more severe in terms of blood pressure levels and organ damage than in whites, resulting in a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality. This review provides an outline of recent advances in the pathophysiological understanding of blood pressure elevation and the consequences thereof in black populations in Africa. This is set against the backdrop of populations undergoing demanding and rapid demographic transition, where infection with the human immunodeficiency virus predominates, and where under and over-nutrition coexist. Collectively, recent findings from Africa illustrate an increased lifetime risk to hypertension from foetal life onwards. From young ages black populations display early endothelial dysfunction, increased vascular tone and reactivity, microvascular structural adaptions as well as increased aortic stiffness resulting in elevated central and brachial blood pressures during the day and night, when compared to whites. Together with knowledge on the contributions of sympathetic activation and abnormal renal sodium handling, these pathophysiological adaptations result in subclinical and clinical organ damage at younger ages. This overall enhanced understanding on the determinants of blood pressure elevation in blacks encourages (a) novel approaches to assess and manage hypertension in Africa better, (b) further scientific discovery to develop more effective prevention and treatment strategies and

Assessment of provider-initiated HIV screening in Nigeria with sub-Saharan African comparison

Background

Despite Nigeria’s high HIV prevalence, voluntary testing and counselling rates remain low. UNAIDS/WHO/CDC recommends provider-initiated testing and counselling (PITC) for HIV in settings with high HIV prevalence. We aimed to assess the acceptability and logistical feasibility of the PITC strategy among adolescents and adults in a secondary health care centre in Idekpa Benue state, Nigeria.

Method

All patients (aged ≥ 13 years) who visited the out-patient department and antenatal care unit of General Hospital Idekpa, Benue state, Nigeria were offered PITC for HIV. The intervention was implemented by trained health professionals for the period spanning (June to December 2010).

Results

Among the 212 patients who were offered PITC for HIV, 199 (94%) accepted HIV testing, 10 patients (4.7%) opted out and 3 patients (1.4%) were undecided. Of the 199 participants who were tested for HIV, 9% were HIV seropositive. The PITC strategy was highly acceptable and feasible, and increased the number of patients who tested for HIV by 5% compared to voluntary counselling and testing. Findings from this assessment were consistent with those from other sub-Saharan African countries (such as Uganda and South Africa).

Conclusion

PITC for HIV was highly acceptable and logistically feasible, and resulted in an increased rate of HIV testing among patients. Public health initiatives (such as the PITC strategy) that facilitate early detection of HIV and referral for early treatment should be encouraged for broader HIV control and prevention in Nigerian communities.