Assessment of Surrogate End Point Trends in Clinical Trials to Approve Oncology Drugs From 2001 to 2020 in Japan

Continued cancer drug approvals in Japan and Europe after market withdrawal in the United States: A comparative study of accelerated approvals

Regulatory authorities must balance ensuring evidence of efficacy and safety of new drugs. Various regulatory pathways, such as the accelerated approval program in the United States (US), allow authorities to quickly approve drugs for severely ill patients by granting market authorization based on surrogate end points and pending confirmatory trials. In this cross-sectional study, we considered 23 indications of cancer drugs that received accelerated approval by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) but were subsequently withdrawn as of April 2023. Our investigation extended to assessing the regulatory status of these accelerated approvals in the European Union (EU) and Japan, examining relevant regulatory documents and identifying factors contributing to the withdrawal in the United States. Comparing regions, we found that for 52% (12/23) and 30% (7/23) of withdrawn accelerated approvals in the United States, sponsors had also sought marketing authorization from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and Japan's Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA), respectively. As of the April 30, 2023 study cutoff date, 83% (10/12) of drug-indication pairs remained approved by the EMA, while the PMDA retained 100% (7/7). For these indications, the time from FDA withdrawal until the study cutoff date ranged from 0.23 years to 11.45 years for EMA approvals (median: 1.28 years) and 1.10 years to 11.45 years for PMDA approvals (median: 3.22 years). These findings highlight substantial regulatory discrepancies concerning cancer drugs with unconfirmed benefits. Addressing these discrepancies may involve requiring pharmaceutical companies to confirm clinical benefits using more robust end points and fostering international harmonization in regulators' assessment.

Trends in oncology drug lags in Japan from 2001 to 2020: A cross-sectional study

Anticancer drugs are essential in the treatment of serious diseases, but their applications are limited by drug lags. This study investigated the characteristics of anticancer drugs approved in Japan over the past 20 years and compared the drug lag trends between Japan and the US. We assessed the changes in drug lag between Japan and the US and the factors affecting the drug lags using publicly available data for anticancer drugs approved in Japan from January 2001 to December 2020. A total of 299 anticancer drugs were approved in Japan in the last 20 years. The approval lag median between the US and Japan was 498 days (16.6 months), peaking in 2002, and decreasing annually thereafter. The minimum approval lag was 173.5 days (5.7 months) in 2018. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that "global simultaneous strategy," "catch-up strategy," and "immunotherapy" are major factors shortening the drug lag. In the past decade, 226 anticancer drugs were approved in Japan. The drug lag for anticancer drugs between Japan and the US peaked in 2002, after which it declined sharply to less than a year. However, the lag was shortest in 2018.

A framework for the definition and interpretation of the use of surrogate endpoints in interventional trials

Background

Interventional trials that evaluate treatment effects using surrogate endpoints have become increasingly common. This paper describes four linked empirical studies and the development of a framework for defining, interpreting and reporting surrogate endpoints in trials.

Methods

As part of developing the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) and SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) extensions for randomised trials reporting surrogate endpoints, we undertook a scoping review, e-Delphi study, consensus meeting, and a web survey to examine current definitions and stakeholder (including clinicians, trial investigators, patients and public partners, journal editors, and health technology experts) interpretations of surrogate endpoints as primary outcome measures in trials.

Findings

Current surrogate endpoint definitional frameworks are inconsistent and unclear. Surrogate endpoints are used in trials as a substitute of the treatment effects of an intervention on the target outcome(s) of ultimate interest, events measuring how patients feel, function, or survive. Traditionally the consideration of surrogate endpoints in trials has focused on biomarkers (e.g., HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, tumour response), especially in the medical product regulatory setting. Nevertheless, the concept of surrogacy in trials is potentially broader. Intermediate outcomes that include a measure of function or symptoms (e.g., angina frequency, exercise tolerance) can also be used as substitute for target outcomes (e.g., all-cause mortality)-thereby acting as surrogate endpoints. However, we found a lack of consensus among stakeholders on accepting and interpreting intermediate outcomes in trials as surrogate endpoints or target outcomes. In our assessment, patients and health technology assessment experts appeared more likely to consider intermediate outcomes to be surrogate endpoints than clinicians and regulators.

Interpretation

There is an urgent need for better understanding and reporting on the use of surrogate endpoints, especially in the setting of interventional trials. We provide a framework for the definition of surrogate endpoints (biomarkers and intermediate outcomes) and target outcomes in trials to improve future reporting and aid stakeholders' interpretation and use of trial surrogate endpoint evidence.

Funding

SPIRIT-SURROGATE/CONSORT-SURROGATE project is Medical Research Council Better Research Better Health (MR/V038400/1) funded.

Is Target-Based Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and "Off-Target" Mechanisms of All Drugs

Target-based drug discovery is the dominant paradigm of drug discovery; however, a comprehensive evaluation of its real-world efficiency is lacking. Here, a manual systematic review of about 32000 articles and patents dating back to 150 years ago demonstrates its apparent inefficiency. Analyzing the origins of all approved drugs reveals that, despite several decades of dominance, only 9.4% of small-molecule drugs have been discovered through "target-based" assays. Moreover, the therapeutic effects of even this minimal share cannot be solely attributed and reduced to their purported targets, as they depend on numerous off-target mechanisms unconsciously incorporated by phenotypic observations. The data suggest that reductionist target-based drug discovery may be a cause of the productivity crisis in drug discovery. An evidence-based approach to enhance efficiency seems to be prioritizing, in selecting and optimizing molecules, higher-level phenotypic observations that are closer to the sought-after therapeutic effects using tools like artificial intelligence and machine learning.