Defining the Most Appropriate Primary End Point in Phase 2 Trials of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Advanced Solid Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Quantitative evaluation of the efficacy and safety profiles of two types of targeted inhibitors combined with endocrine therapy in ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to quantitatively compare the efficacy and safety of CDK4/6 inhibitors and PI3K/AKT/mTOR inhibitors for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer.

METHODS

A parametric survival function was used to analyze the time course of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The objective response rate (ORR) and the incidence of any grade and grade 3-4 adverse events were summarized using the random-effects model of a single-arm meta-analysis.

RESULTS

This study included 44 arms from 48 publications, with a total sample size of 7881 patients. Our study revealed that CDK4/6 inhibitors had a median OS of 40.7 months, a median PFS of 14.8 months, and an ORR of 40%, whereas PI3K/AKT/mTOR inhibitors had a median OS of 29.8 months, a median PFS of 8.3 months, and an ORR of 20%. Additionally, this study also found that the proportion of patients with visceral metastases and specific endocrine therapy used in combination significantly impact OS and PFS. In terms of adverse events, CDK4/6 inhibitors exhibited a relatively high incidence of hematological adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides solid quantitative evidence for the first-line recommendation of CDK4/6 inhibitors combined with endocrine therapy for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer in clinical guidelines.

Assessment of endpoint definitions in recurrent and metastatic mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma trials: Head and Neck Cancer International Group consensus recommendations

Transparent and precise endpoint definitions are a crucial aspect of clinical trial conduct and reporting, and are used to communicate the benefit of an intervention. Previous studies have identified inconsistencies in endpoint definitions across oncological clinical trials. Here, the Head and Neck Cancer International Group assessed endpoint definitions from phase 3 trials or trials considered practice-changing for patients with recurrent or metastatic mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, published between 2008 and 2021. We identify considerable and global heterogeneity in endpoint definitions, which undermines the interpretation of results and development of future studies. We show how fundamental components of even incontrovertible endpoints such as overall survival vary widely, highlighting an urgent need for increased rigour in reporting and harmonisation of endpoints.

Esophageal chemoradiotherapy with concurrent nivolumab: Pilot results in the palliative treatment of oligometastatic disease

AIMS

Many patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer have dysphagia from their primary tumor and de novo metastatic disease. The purpose of this study was to test the safety and efficacy of nivolumab given concurrently with hypofractionated chemoradiotherapy to patients with oligometastatic and obstructing esophageal tumors.

METHODS

Patients were enrolled in a planned single-arm, phase 2 clinical trial. Eligible participants had previously untreated oligometastatic (≤5 metastases on fludeoxyglucose-18 positron emission tomography scan outside the primary tumor radiotherapy field) esophageal or gastroesophageal carcinoma, dysphagia, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1. Treatment was with 2 weeks of concurrent hypofractionated radiotherapy (30 Gy/10#) to the primary tumor, weekly carboplatin AUC2, weekly paclitaxel 50 mg/m2, and q2weekly nivolumab 240 mg, followed by nivolumab 480 mg continuing q4weekly until disease progression or 24 months total. A single metastasis was treated with stereotactic radiotherapy (SBRT) (24 Gy/3#) in week 7.

RESULTS

Five patients were recruited before trial closure to new participants for logistical reasons. Existing participants continued treatment per protocol as a pilot study at one center. All five patients completed chemoradioimmunotherapy and SBRT. All patients derived an improvement in their dysphagia. Two patients completed 24 months of nivolumab without disease progression. Grade 3 adverse events (AEs) occurred in 3 patients, however, there were no grade 4 AEs, AEs due to SBRT, or AEs of special interest as defined by the protocol.

CONCLUSION

Pilot results from five patients at one center found that treatment was well tolerated and effective for dysphagia relief. The efficacy of hypofractionated chemoradiotherapy with concurrent checkpoint inhibition should be tested in a multicentre study.

Nomograms Predict PFS and OS for SCLC Patients After Standardized Treatment: A Real-World Study

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the process of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients from achieving optimal efficacy to experiencing disease progression until death. It examines the predictive value of the treatment response on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of SCLC patients.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis on 136 SCLC patients diagnosed from 1992 to 2018. Important prognostic factors were identified to construct nomogram models. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves. Survival differences between groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Subsequently, an independent cohort consisting of 106 SCLC patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2021 was used for validation.

Results

We constructed two nomograms to predict first-line PFS (PFS1) and OS of SCLC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the PFS1 nomogram predicting PFS at 3-, 6-, and 12-months were 0.919 (95% CI: 0.867-0.970), 0.908 (95% CI: 0.860-0.956) and 0.878 (95% CI: 0.798-0.958), and for the OS nomogram predicting OS at 6-, 12-, and 24-months were 0.814 (95% CI: 0.736-0.892), 0.819 (95% CI: 0.749-0.889) and 0.809 (95% CI: 0.678-0.941), indicating those two models with a high discriminative ability. The calibration curves demonstrated the models had a high degree of consistency between predicted and observed values. According to the risk scores, patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups, showing a significant difference in survival rate. And these findings were validated in another independent validation cohort.

Conclusion

Based on the patients' treatment response after standardized treatment, we developed and validated two nomogram models to predict PFS1 and OS of SCLC. The models demonstrated good accuracy, reliability and clinical applicability by validating in an independent cohort.

Endocrine Immune-Related Adverse Events Are Independent Predictors of Survival in Patients with Lung Cancer

Lung cancer (LC) is a serious health problem worldwide. Survival outcomes have improved over time due to the widespread use of novel therapeutic agents, including immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Endocrine immune-related adverse events (e-irAEs) are common in LC patients treated with ICIs. We performed a retrospective study of patients with LC who received treatment with ICIs at a tertiary referral center between January 2014 and October 2023. In total, 983 LC patients were included in the study. E-irAEs presented at a median time of 4.1 months and included hypothyroidism (15.6%), hyperthyroidism (4.3%), adrenal insufficiency (0.4%), hypophysitis (0.4%), and diabetes mellitus (0.2%). These toxicities were not related to the duration of treatment or the type of ICIs. Most (97.6%) e-irAEs were mild (grade 1-2). Median overall survival (OS) was higher in LC patients who experienced e-irAEs (31.6 months) compared to those who did not (10.8 months). The difference remained statistically significant in the 3-month (HR: 0.42) and 6-month landmark analysis (HR: 0.51). The OS advantage was observed in both patients with NSCLC (HR: 0.36) and SCLC (HR: 0.27). Additional research is needed to validate the role of e-irAEs as an independent predictor of survival outcomes in patients with LC.

Transcriptome analysis reveals the clinical significance of CXCL13 in Pan-Gyn tumors

BACKGROUND

Gynecologic and breast tumors (Pan-Gyn) exhibit similar characteristics, and the role of CXCL13 in anti-tumor immunity and it's potential as a biomarker for immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy have been gradually revealed. However, the precise role of CXCL13 in Pan-Gyn remains unclear, lacking a systematic analysis.

METHODS

We analyzed 2497 Pan-Gyn samples from the TCGA database, categorizing them into high and low CXCL13 expression groups. Validation was conducted using tumor expression datasets sourced from the GEO database. Correlation between CXCL13 and tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) was evaluated using multiple algorithms. Finally, we established nomograms for 3-year and 5-year mortality.

RESULTS

High expression of CXCL13 in Pan-Gyn correlates with a favorable clinical prognosis, increased immune cell infiltration, and reduced intra-tumor heterogeneity. Model was assessed using the C-index [BRCA: 0.763 (0.732-0.794), UCEC: 0.821 (0.793-0.849), CESC: 0.736 (0.684-0.788), and OV: 0.728 (0.707-0.749)], showing decent prediction of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSION

Overall, this study provides comprehensive insights into the commonalities and differences of CXCL13 in Pan-Gyn, potentially opening new avenues for personalized treatment.

Validity and Efficiency of Progression-Free Survival-2 as a Surrogate End Point for Overall Survival in Advanced Cancer Randomized Trials

PURPOSE

Progression-free survival (PFS)-2, defined as the time from randomization to progression on second-line therapy, is potentially a more reliable surrogate than PFS for overall survival (OS), but will require longer follow-up and a larger sample size. We sought to compare the validity and efficiency, defined as proportional increase in follow-up time and sample size, of PFS-2 to PFS.

METHODS

We performed an electronic search to identify randomized trials of advanced solid tumors reporting PFS, PFS-2, and OS as prespecified end points. Only studies that had protocols that defined measurement of PFS-2 and follow-up for patients after first disease progression were included. We compared correlations in the relative treatment effect for OS with PFS and PFS-2. We reconstructed individual patient data from survival curves to estimate time to statistical significance (TSS) of the relative treatment effect. We further computed the sample size (person-year [PY] follow-up) required to reach statistical significance.

RESULTS

Across the 42 analysis units and 21,255 patients, the correlation of the relative treatment effect between OS and PFS-2, r, was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.80) and r = 0.46 (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.74) for OS and PFS. The median differences in TSS between OS with PFS, OS with PFS-2, and PFS with PFS-2 were 16.59 (95% CI, 4.48 to not reached [NR]), 10.0 (95% CI, 2.2 to NR), and 4.31 (95% CI, 2.92 to 13.13) months, respectively. The median difference in PYs required to reach statistical significance for PFS-2 over PFS was 156 (95% CI, 82 to 500) PYs, equivalent to an estimated median 12.7% increase in PYs.

CONCLUSION

PFS-2 offers improved correlation with OS than PFS with a modest increase in follow-up time and sample size. PFS-2 should be considered as a primary end point in future trials of advanced cancers.

Surrogate and modified endpoints for immunotherapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Immunotherapies have altered the treatment paradigm in HCC. Surrogate and modified endpoints are used to assess early success in clinical studies and guide clinical practice. We sought to determine whether surrogate endpoints and modifications to the conventional criteria for tumor response (RECIST), including modified RECIST (mRECIST) and immune-modified RECIST (imRECIST), are valid measures to predict overall survival (OS) in HCC treated with immunotherapies.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We performed an individual-level post hoc analysis of patients treated with atezolizumab and bevacizumab in the IMbrave150 trial (N = 279) and a cross-sectional analysis of a multicenter real-world patient cohort treated with immunotherapy (N = 328). Landmark analyses showed that objective response rates by RECIST were associated with greater OS including among Child-Pugh A and B patients and among patients treated with immunotherapies in the first- or second-line setting (IMbrave150: HR 0.24, 95% CI, 0.17-0.33; RW: HR 0.25, 95% CI, 0.15-0.43). Objective response rates by mRECIST or imRECIST were not associated with the greater predictive power of OS benefit (mRECIST: HR 0.30, 95% CI, 0.22-0.42; imRECIST: HR 0.36, 95% CI, 0.30-0.51). Progression-free survival determined by RECIST was only moderately correlated with OS, and this association was not improved using mRECIST or imRECIST.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results clarify the utility of surrogate and modified endpoints in HCC treated with immunotherapies and support the use of RECIST objective response rates as an appropriate signal-finding measure for the evaluation of emerging treatments. Contrary to their intended purpose, mRECIST and imRECIST did not provide meaningful improvements in predicting OS benefits.

Integrating Baseline Nutritional and Inflammatory Parameters with Post-Treatment EBV DNA Level to Predict Outcomes of Patients with De Novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Receiving Chemotherapy Combination PD-1 Inhibitor

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a prognostic nomogram based on baseline nutritional and inflammatory parameters for risk stratification in patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (dmNPC) receiving chemotherapy combination programmed death-1 (PD-1) inhibitor.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed 131 patients with dmNPC (88 and 43 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively) between March 2017 and November 2020. All these patients received chemotherapy combined with PD-1 inhibitor treatment. We identified independent risk factors using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and established a nomogram to predict the progression-free survival (PFS). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated and independently validated.

RESULTS

Baseline nutritional risk index (NRI), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), uric acid (UA), and post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA were used to develop a nomogram that could divide patients into favorable- and unfavorable-prognosis groups. The median PFS (mPFS) was significantly longer in the favorable-prognosis group compared to the unfavorable-prognosis group (35.10 months [95% CI: 27.36-42.84] vs. 7.23 months [95% CI: 6.50-7.97]; p = 0.001). All results were confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed model improved the prognostic risk stratification for patients with dmNPC undergoing chemotherapy combined with PD-1 inhibitor treatment.

Statistical considerations in long-term efficacy evaluation of anti-cancer therapies

Anti-cancer therapy has been a significant focus of research. Developing and marketing various types and mechanisms of anti-cancer therapies benefit a variety of patients significantly. The long-term benefit to patients in evaluating the risk-benefit ratio of anti-cancer therapy has become a significant concern. This paper discusses the evaluation of long-term efficacy within the estimand framework and summarizes the various strategies for addressing potential intercurrent events. Non-proportional hazards of survival data may arise with novel anti-cancer therapies, leading to potential bias in conventional evaluation methods. This paper reviews statistical methods for addressing this issue, including novel endpoints, hypothesis testing, and efficacy estimation methods. We also discuss the influences of treatment switching. Although advanced methods have been developed to address the non-proportional hazard, they still have limitations that require continued collaborative efforts to resolve issues.

Acid suppressants reduce the therapeutic effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors and increase the risk of acute kidney injury: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are used in cancer immunotherapy; however, they can lead to immune-related adverse events (irAEs) through immune function of patients. Therefore, this meta-analysis aimed to assess the concomitant effect of acid suppressants (ASs) on ICIs, including several subgroup analyses.

METHODS

We identified related studies and generated the forest plot. The primary endpoint was defined as the change in progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with or without ASs administration. We also evaluated the effect of ASs on the incidence of irAEs.

RESULTS

The total hazard ratio (HR) of ASs on PFS with ICI treatment was 1.39 and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.21-1.59 (Z: p < 0.00001). Moreover, the total HR of ASs on OS was 1.40 and the 95% CI was 1.21-1.61 (Z: p < 0.00001), suggesting that ASs reduced ICI's therapeutic effect. The total odds ratio (OR) for evaluating the effect of ASs on irAEs was 1.23 with a 95% CI of 0.81-1.88 (Z: p = 0.34). However, ASs significantly worsened acute kidney injury (AKI) (total OR 2.10; 95% CI 1.74-2.53 (Z, p < 0.00001)). Furthermore, although proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) reduced ICI's therapeutic effect, histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) did not affect OS.

CONCLUSIONS

It was shown that ASs, especially PPIs, reduced ICI's therapeutic effect, while H2RAs had no effect, and ASs did not affect irAEs; however, it is a risk factor for ICIs-induced AKI.

Trial Design for Cancer Immunotherapy: A Methodological Toolkit

Immunotherapy with checkpoint inhibitors (CPIs) and cell-based products has revolutionized the treatment of various solid tumors and hematologic malignancies. These agents have shown unprecedented response rates and long-term benefits in various settings. These clinical advances have also pointed to the need for new or adapted approaches to trial design and assessment of efficacy and safety, both in the early and late phases of drug development. Some of the conventional statistical methods and endpoints used in other areas of oncology appear to be less appropriate in immuno-oncology. Conversely, other methods and endpoints have emerged as alternatives. In this article, we discuss issues related to trial design in the early and late phases of drug development in immuno-oncology, with a focus on CPIs. For early trials, we review the most salient issues related to dose escalation, use and limitations of tumor response and progression criteria for immunotherapy, the role of duration of response as an endpoint in and of itself, and the need to conduct randomized trials as early as possible in the development of new therapies. For late phases, we discuss the choice of primary endpoints for randomized trials, review the current status of surrogate endpoints, and discuss specific statistical issues related to immunotherapy, including non-proportional hazards in the assessment of time-to-event endpoints, alternatives to the Cox model in these settings, and the method of generalized pairwise comparisons, which can provide a patient-centric assessment of clinical benefit and be used to design randomized trials.

Intermediate endpoints as surrogates for outcomes in cancer immunotherapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis of phase 3 trials

Background

Cancer immunotherapy shows unique efficacy kinetics that differs from conventional treatment. These characteristics may lead to the prolongation of trial duration, hence reliable surrogate endpoints are urgently needed. We aimed to systematically evaluate the study-level performance of commonly reported intermediate clinical endpoints for surrogacy in cancer immunotherapy.

Methods

We searched the Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane databases, between database inception and October 18, 2022, for phase 3 randomised trials investigating the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with advanced solid tumours. An updated search was done on July, 15, 2023. No language restrictions were used. Eligible trials had to set overall survival (OS) as the primary or co-primary endpoint and report at least one intermediate clinical endpoint including objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), and 1-year overall survival. Other key inclusion and exclusion criteria included: (1) adult patients (>18 years old) with advanced solid tumour; (2) no immunotherapy conducted in the control arms; (3) follow-up is long enough to achieve OS; (4) data should be public available. A two-stage meta-analytic approach was conducted to evaluate the magnitude of the association between these intermediate endpoints and OS. A surrogate was identified if the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.7 or greater. Leave-one-out cross-validation and pre-defined subgroup analysis were conducted to examine the heterogeneity. Potential publication bias was evaluated using the Egger's and Begg's tests. This trial was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42022381648.

Findings

52,342 patients with 15 types of tumours from 77 phase 3 studies were included. ORR (R2 = 0.11; 95% CI, 0.00-0.24), DCR (R2 = 0.01; 95% CI, 0.00-0.01), and PFS (R2 = 0.40; 95% CI, 0.23-0.56) showed weak associations with OS. However, a strong correlation was observed between 1-year survival and clinical outcome (R2 = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64-0.83). These associations remained relatively consistent across pre-defined subgroups stratified based on tumour types, masking methods, line of treatments, drug targets, treatment strategies, and follow-up durations. No significant heterogeneities or publication bias were identified.

Interpretation

1-year milestone survival was the only identified surrogacy endpoint for outcomes in cancer immunotherapy. Ongoing investigations and development of new endpoints and incorporation of biomarkers are needed to identify potential surrogate markers that can be more robust than 1-year survival. This work may provide important references in assisting the design and interpretation of future clinical trials, and constitute complementary information in drafting clinical practice guidelines.

Funding

None.

Clinical benefit and safety associated with mRNA vaccines for advanced solid tumors: A meta-analysis

Tumor mRNA vaccines have been developed for over 20 years. Whether mRNA vaccines could promote a clinical benefit to advanced cancer patients is highly unknown. PubMed and Embase were retrieved from January 1, 2000 to January 4, 2023. Random effects models were employed. Clinical benefit (objective response rate [ORR], disease control rate [DCR], 1-year/2-year progression-free survival [PFS], and overall survival [OS]) and safety (vaccine-related grade 3-5 adverse events [AEs]) were evaluated. Overall, 984 patients (32 trials) were enrolled. The most typical cancer types were melanoma (13 trials), non-small cell lung cancer (5 trials), renal cell carcinoma (4 trials), and prostate adenocarcinoma (4 trials). The pooled ORR and DCR estimates were 10.0% (95%CI, 4.6-17.0%) and 34.6% (95%CI, 24.1-45.9%). The estimates for 1-year and 2-year PFS were 38.4% (95%CI, 24.8-53.0%) and 20.0% (95%CI, 10.4-31.7%), respectively. The estimates for 1-year and 2-year OS were 75.3% (95%CI, 62.4-86.3%) and 45.5% (95%CI, 34.0-57.2%), respectively. The estimate for vaccine-related grade 3-5 AEs was 1.0% (95%CI, 0.2-2.4%). Conclusively, mRNA vaccines seem to demonstrate modest clinical response rates, with acceptable survival rates and rare grade 3-5 AEs.

A Bayesian-adaptive decision-theoretic approach can reduce the sample sizes for multiarm exercise oncology trials

OBJECTIVES

Adaptive designs may reduce trial sample sizes and costs. This study illustrates a Bayesian-adaptive decision-theoretic design applied to a multiarm exercise oncology trial.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

In the Physical exercise during Adjuvant Chemotherapy Effectiveness Study (PACES) trial, 230 breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy were randomized to supervised resistance and aerobic exercise (OnTrack), home-based physical activity (OncoMove) or usual care (UC). Data were reanalyzed as an adaptive trial using both Bayesian decision-theoretic and a frequentist group-sequential approach incorporating interim analyses after every 36 patients. Endpoint was chemotherapy treatment modifications (any vs. none). Bayesian analyses were performed for different continuation thresholds and settings with and without arm dropping and both in a 'pick-the-winner' and a 'pick-all-treatments-superior-to-control' setting.

RESULTS

Treatment modifications occurred in 34% of patients in UC and OncoMove vs. 12% in OnTrack (P = 0.002). Using a Bayesian-adaptive decision-theoretic design, OnTrack was identified as most effective after 72 patients in the 'pick-the-winner' setting and after 72-180 patients in the 'pick-all-treatments-superior-to-control' setting. In a frequentist setting, the trial would have been stopped after 180 patients, and the proportion of patients with treatment modifications was significantly lower for OnTrack than UC.

CONCLUSION

A Bayesian-adaptive decision-theoretic approach substantially reduced the sample size required for this three-arm exercise trial, especially in the 'pick-the-winner' setting.

Chasing Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Ovarian Cancer: Novel Combinations and Biomarker Discovery

A deep understanding of the tumor microenvironment and the recognition of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes as a prognostic factor have resulted in major milestones in immunotherapy that have led to therapeutic advances in treating many cancers. Yet, the translation of this knowledge to clinical success for ovarian cancer remains a challenge. The efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors as single agents or combined with chemotherapy has been unsatisfactory, leading to the exploration of alternative combination strategies with targeted agents (e.g., poly-ADP-ribose inhibitors (PARP)and angiogenesis inhibitors) and novel immunotherapy approaches. Among the different histological subtypes, clear cell ovarian cancer has shown a higher sensitivity to immunotherapy. A deeper understanding of the mechanism of immune resistance within the context of ovarian cancer and the identification of predictive biomarkers remain central discovery benchmarks to be realized. This will be critical to successfully define the precision use of immune checkpoint inhibitors for the treatment of ovarian cancer.

Efficacy and safety of pembrolizumab monotherapy in patients with advanced thyroid cancer in the phase 2 KEYNOTE-158 study

BACKGROUND

The authors report results from the thyroid carcinoma cohort of the multicohort phase 2 KEYNOTE-158 study (NCT02628067), which evaluated pembrolizumab monotherapy in patients with previously treated cancers.

METHODS

Eligible patients had histologically and/or cytologically confirmed papillary or follicular thyroid carcinoma, failure of or intolerance to prior therapy, and measurable disease per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) v1.1. Patients received pembrolizumab (200 mg) every 3 weeks for up to 35 cycles. The primary end point was objective response rate (ORR) per RECIST v1.1 by independent central review.

RESULTS

A total of 103 patients were enrolled and received pembrolizumab. Median duration from first dose to data cutoff (October 5, 2020) was 49.4 (range, 43.9-54.9) months. ORR was 6.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8%-13.5%), and median duration of response was 18.4 (range, 4.2-47.2+) months. ORR was 8.7% (95% CI, 2.4%-20.8%) among patients with programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) combined positive score (CPS) ≥1 (n = 46) and 5.7% (95% CI, 1.2%-15.7%) among patients with PD-L1 CPS <1 (n = 53). Median overall survival and progression-free survival were 34.5 (95% CI, 21.2 to not reached) and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.9-6.2) months, respectively. Treatment-related adverse events occurred in 69.9% of patients (grade 3-5, 14.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Pembrolizumab demonstrated manageable toxicity and durable antitumor activity in a small subset of patients with advanced thyroid cancer. These results provide evidence of modest antitumor activity in this setting regardless of tumor PD-L1 expression. Future studies evaluating immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer should focus on biomarker-driven patient selection or combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors with other agents, in order to achieve higher response rates than observed in this study.

A new prognostic model for predicting outcomes of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving subsequent line (≥2 lines) anti-programmed death-1 monotherapy

OBJECTIVES

About 17.7-34.0 % of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC) responded well to anti-PD-1 monotherapy. We sought to establish a nomogram to estimate the progression-free survival (PFS) of RM-NPC patients receiving subsequent-line anti-PD-1 monotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cohort study investigated consecutive RM-NPC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort (n = 161), using a Cox multivariate model with backward stepwise inclusion, and was validated in the validation cohort (n = 69). Its predictive accuracy was assessed using a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The primary endpoint was PFS. Secondary endpoints included the objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Liver metastasis, albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, and plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA were used to develop a nomogram that could separate patients into favourable- and unfavourable-prognosis groups. The C-index in the training and validation cohort were 0.70 and 0.68, respectively, which was confirmed by calibration curves. Median PFS (mPFS) was lower for the unfavourable-prognosis than for the favourable-prognosis group (1.80 vs 4.93; hazard ratio 2.49 [95 % confidence interval: 1.78-3.49]; p < 0.001), across all subgroups. OS exhibited the same pattern. The ORR and DCR were markedly lower in the unfavourable-prognosis than in the favourable-prognosis group. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Our model is a reliable prognostic indicator of PFS in RM-NPC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy, allowing robust estimation of the immunotherapy benefit an individual might derive.

Efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic spread: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 54 studies with 6187 hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The impacts of macrovascular invasion (MVI) or extrahepatic spread (EHS) on the efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients remain unclear. Thus, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify whether ICI therapy is a feasible treatment option for HCC with MVI or EHS.

METHODS

Eligible studies published before September 14, 2022, were retrieved. In this meta-analysis, the objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and occurrence of adverse events (AEs) were outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

Fifty-four studies involving 6187 individuals were included. The findings indicated that the presence of EHS in ICI-treated HCC patients may indicate an inferior ORR (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.63-0.96), but may not significantly affect the PFS (multivariate analyses: HR 1.27, 95% CI 0.70-2.31) and OS (multivariate analyses: HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.70-2.16). Additionally, the presence of MVI in ICI-treated HCC patients may not have significant prognostic impact on ORR (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.64-1.10), but may indicate inferior PFS (multivariate analyses: HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.07-2.84) and OS (multivariate analyses: HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.31-3.14). The presence of EHS or MVI in ICI-treated HCC patients may not significantly impact the occurrence of any serious immune-related adverse events (irAEs) (grades ≥ 3) (EHS: OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.12-1.56; MVI: OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.24-1.88).

CONCLUSION

The presence of MVI or EHS in ICI-treated HCC patients may not significantly impact the occurrence of serious irAEs. However, the presence of MVI (but not EHS) in ICI-treated HCC patients may be a significant negative prognostic factor. Therefore, ICI-treated HCC patients with MVI warrant more attention.

Estimating the distribution of ratio of paired event times in phase II oncology trials

With the rapid development of new anti-cancer agents which are cytostatic, new endpoints are needed to better measure treatment efficacy in phase II trials. For this purpose, Von Hoff (1998) proposed the growth modulation index (GMI), that is, the ratio between times to progression or progression-free survival times in two successive treatment lines. An essential task in studies using GMI as an endpoint is to estimate the distribution of GMI. Traditional methods for survival data have been used for estimating the GMI distribution because censoring is common for GMI data. However, we point out that the independent censoring assumption required by traditional survival methods is always violated for GMI, which may lead to severely biased results. In this paper, we construct both nonparametric and parametric estimators for the distribution of GMI, accounting for the dependent censoring of GMI. Extensive simulation studies show that our nonparametric estimators perform well in practical situations and outperform existing estimators, and our parametric estimators perform better than our nonparametric estimators and existing estimators when the parametric model is correctly specified. A phase II clinical trial using GMI as the primary endpoint is provided for illustration.

Immune checkpoint blockers in patients with unresectable or metastatic thymic epithelial tumours: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

For patients with advanced thymic epithelial tumours (TET), there is no standard second-line treatment after platinum-based chemotherapy. Although immune checkpoint blockers (ICB) are a potential treatment strategy, their efficacy seems limited with an increased risk of immune-related adverse events (ir-AEs), thus hampering their application in daily clinical practice.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis to better evaluate the existing evidence about the activity and safety of ICB in the setting of unresectable or metastatic advanced TET previously treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

RESULTS

Six phase I/II trials met the eligibility criteria including a total of 166 evaluable patients (77% thymic carcinoma, 23% thymoma) evaluable for activity after being treated with pembrolizumab, nivolumab, avelumab or atezolizumab. The overall response rate to ICB was 18.4% (95% CI: 12.3-26.5), and the one-year progression-free survival rate and one-year overall survival rate were 26.0% (95% CI: 19.6-34.6) and 66.9% (95% CI: 59.6-75.2%), respectively. The incidence of grade 3-5 ir-AEs was 26.4%, with 17.1% in thymic carcinoma and 58.3% in thymoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the absence of a robust demonstration of efficacy in the context of randomised trials, our results suggest ICB as a potential strategy in patients with pretreated TET, mainly among patients with thymic carcinoma. Close monitoring is strongly advised to detect severe immune-toxicity.

Clinical Outcomes Associated with Monotherapy and Combination Therapy of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors as First-Line Treatment for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Real-World Practice: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs)-based therapy has recently been demonstrated to greatly ameliorate survival outcomes in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate clinical outcomes of ICIs-based monotherapy and combination therapy as first-line treatment of adults with advanced HCC in real-world practice by conducting a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were searched up to 25 April 2022. Retrospective or prospective real-world studies evaluating progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) of patients with advanced HCC receiving first-line ICIs-based therapy were included.

RESULTS

Of 7805 studies retrieved, 38 were deemed eligible for inclusion. For patients receiving first-line ICIs-based therapy in real-world practice, the pooled median PFS and OS were 7.03 (95% CI: 5.55-8.51) and 14.39 (95% CI: 10.91-17.86) months. The ORR and DCR were 0.432 (95% CI: 0.327-0.538) and 0.756 (95% CI: 0.677-0.836), according to mRECIST 1.1, 0.317 (95% CI: 0.218-0.416) and 0.740 (95% CI: 0.644-0.835), judged by RECIST 1.1. The best outcomes of survival and response rate were observed in ICIs-based combination therapy of ICIs, TKIs, plus LRTs. Furthermore, ORR, DCR judged by mRECIST 1.1, and PFS could be potential prognostic factors for OS.

CONCLUSIONS

This research revealed diversified first-line ICIs-based therapies for advanced HCC in real-world practice. Future studies are needed to adopt prospective, multicentric and comparative designs to test the ICIs-based combination therapies, especially triple therapies of ICIs, TKIs, plus LRTs.

Tumor Response, Disease Control, and Progression-Free Survival as Surrogate Endpoints in Trials Evaluating Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Study- and Patient-Level Analyses

Background: To assess the usefulness of tumor response and progression-free survival (PFS) as surrogates for overall survival (OS) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) trials with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), which have not been confirmed. Methods: Patient- and trial-level analyses were performed. The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors was preferred for image assessment. For trial-level analysis, surrogacy was assessed using the weighted rank correlation coefficient (r) following "reciprocal duplication." This method duplicates all plots as if the experimental and the reference arms were switched. Monte Carlo simulations were performed for evaluating this method. Results: A total of 3312 cases were included in the patient-level analysis. Patients without response (first line (1L): hazard ratio (HR) 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.71-2.23; second or later line (2L-): HR 4.22, 95% CI 3.22-5.53), without disease control (1L: HR 4.34, 95% CI 3.82-4.94; 2L-: HR 3.36, 95% CI 2.96-3.81), or with progression during the first year (1L: HR 3.42, 95% CI 2.60-4.50; 2L-: HR 3.33, 95% CI 2.64-4.20), had a higher risk of death. Systematic searches identified 38 RCTs including 17,515 patients for the study-level analysis. Odds ratio in the objective response rate (N = 38 × 2, r = -0.87) and HR in PFS (N = 38 × 2, r = 0.85) showed an excellent association with HR in overall survival, while this effect was not observed in the disease control rate (N = 26 × 2, r = -0.03). Conclusions: Objective response rate and PFS are reasonable surrogates for OS in NSCLC trials with ICI.

Chemoradiotherapy with concurrent durvalumab for the palliative treatment of oligometastatic oesophageal and gastrooesophageal carcinoma with dysphagia: a single arm phase II clinical trial (PALEO, sponsored by the Australasian Gastro-Intestinal Trials Group)

BACKGROUND

Oesophageal and gastrooesophageal junction (GOJ) carcinoma frequently present with dysphagia and de novo metastatic disease. There is scope to improve treatment paradigms to both address symptoms and improve survival. One method is integrating immune checkpoint inhibition with novel treatment combinations.

METHODS

PALEO is a single arm, phase II clinical trial in patients with previously untreated, oligometastatic or locoregionally advanced oesophageal or GOJ carcinoma and dysphagia. PALEO is sponsored by the Australasian Gastro-Intestinal Trials Group (AGITG). Participants receive 2 weeks of therapy with concurrent hypofractionated radiotherapy of 30Gy in 10 fractions to the primary tumour, weekly carboplatin AUC2, weekly paclitaxel 50 mg/m² and durvalumab 1500 mg q4 weekly, followed by durvalumab monotherapy continuing at 1500 mg q4weekly until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity or 24 months of therapy. A single metastasis is treated with stereotactic radiotherapy of 24Gy in 3 fractions in week 7. The trial primary endpoint is the progression free survival rate at 6 months. Secondary endpoints include duration of dysphagia relief, nutritional status change, quality of life, response rate, toxicity, progression free survival and overall survival. The tertiary endpoint is prediction of outcome based on biomarkers identified from patient serial blood samples collected pre- and post-radiotherapy.

DISCUSSION

This unique investigator-initiated clinical trial is designed to simultaneously address the clinically relevant problems of dysphagia and distant disease control. The overarching aims are to improve patient nutrition, quality of life and survival with low toxicity therapy. AGITG PALEO is a multidisciplinary collaboration and will add to the understanding of the relationship between radiotherapy and the anti-tumour immune response.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12619001371189 , registered 8 October 2019.

Chemo-Immunotherapy in First Line Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (ES-SCLC): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is an aggressive neuroendocrine carcinoma with early metastatic potential. The standard-of-care treatment has not changed in years. Recent studies report improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with combined ICI and chemotherapy in ES-SCLC. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the magnitude of survival benefits. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane between 1 January 2010 and 15 July 2022 and conference proceedings from 2018 to 2022, for randomised controlled trials, evaluating chemo-ICI compared with platinum-doublet chemotherapy in untreated ES-SCLC. Outcomes assessed were PFS, OS, objective response rate (ORR), duration of response (DoR), toxicity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The search identified 8061 studies, with 8 (56 publications) included in the final analysis. PFS and OS were significantly improved for patients randomised to chemo-ICI (PFS hazard ratio (HR) 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.80) and (OS HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85). Subgroup analysis demonstrated a differential effect between PD-1/PD-L1 and CTLA-4 inhibitors. There was no difference in ORR and DoR. All-grade adverse events (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) were similar. The addition of ICI to chemotherapy in untreated ES-SCLC results in a 22% risk reduction in death, and a 25% risk reduction in disease progression with a minimal increase in toxicity. These improvements are modest but represent progress beyond the standard of care.

M6A regulator-mediated immune infiltration and methylation modification in hepatocellular carcinoma microenvironment and immunotherapy

Introduction: Tremendous evidence indicates that N6-methyladenosine (m6A) epigenetic modification and m6A-related enzymes constitute a complex network, which jointly regulates prevailing pathological processes and various signaling pathways in humankind. Currently, the role of the m6A-mediated molecular regulatory network in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains elusive. Methods: We recruited expression and pathological files of 368 HCC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas cohort. Four public datasets serve as external authentication sets for nearest template prediction (NTP) validation. The correlation between 35 regulators and their prognostic value was compared. Gene set variation analysis (GSVA) was used to explore the latent mechanism. Four independent algorithms (ssGSEA, xCell, MCP-counter, and TIMER) were used to calculate the ratio of tumor cells and non-tumor cells to evaluate the tumor immune microenvironment. The m6Ascore model was established by principal component analysis (PCA). Prediction of immunotherapy and potential drugs was performed using TIDE and SubMap. Results: A total of 35 m6A regulators were widely associated, most of which were risk factors for HCC patients. The m6A phenotypic-cluster revealed differences in regulator transcriptional level, gene mutation frequency, functional pathways, and immune cell infiltration abundance under distinct m6A patterns. As expected, the m6A gene cluster confirmed the aforementioned results. The m6Ascore model further found that patients in the high-m6Ascore group were associated with lower tumor purity, higher enrichment of immune and stromal cells, upregulation of metabolic pathways, lower expression of m6A regulators, and favorable outcomes. Low-m6Ascore patients were associated with adverse outcomes. Notably, low-m6Ascore patients might be more sensitive to anti-PD-L1 therapy. Conclusion: This study found that a classification model based on the m6A manner could predict HCC prognosis and response to immunotherapy for HCC patients, which might improve prognosis and contribute to clinical individualized decision-making.

Validating ORR and PFS as surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients: difference exists in the strength of surrogacy in various trial settings

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to systematically validate the performance of surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients under various trial settings.

METHODS

A literature search retrieved all registered phase II and III trials of NSCLC patients in which OS, with at least one of ORR and PFS, were reported. Associations between surrogate and true endpoints were assessed on two levels. On the arm level, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ORR vs. median OS, ORR vs. median PFS, and median PFS vs. median OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho. On the trial level, similarly, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ΔORR vs. HR of OS, ΔORR vs. HR of PFS, and HR of PFS vs. HR of OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho and weighted linear regression model respectively. Finally, sensitivity analyses were performed to explore surrogacy under various trial settings.

RESULTS

At arm level, three pairs of correlations are all high (Spearman's rho = 0.700, 0.831, 0.755, respectively). At trial level, there is a low correlation between ΔORR and HR of OS, a high correlation between ΔORR and HR of PFS and a moderate correlation between HR of PFS and HR of OS (Spearman's rho = 0.462, 0.764, 0.584, respectively). In the sensitivity analysis, we find correlations between surrogate and true endpoints vary by different trial settings. It is noteworthy that the strength of surrogacy of these intermediate endpoints in targeted therapy is greater than that in immunotherapy.

CONCLUSION

According to the arm-level and trial level-analysis, we suggest that in phase II and III trials of targeted therapy and immunotherapy for NSCLC patients: 1) ORR lacks validity for the surrogacy of OS, excluding in first-line therapy, and 2) ORR may be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for PFS, and 3) PFS may be considered a modest surrogacy for OS, with better performance in first-line therapy trials. Moreover, to provide more convincing evidence of surrogacy of the surrogate endpoints, patient-level analyses are in desperate need.

Role of Exosomes in Immunotherapy of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Simple Summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most lethal malignancies, having a significantly poor prognosis. Immunotherapy, as an emerging tumor treatment option, provides new hope for many cancer patients. However, a large proportion of patients do not benefit from immunotherapy. As a critical cell-to-cell communication mediator in the tumor immune microenvironment, exosomes may play a unique role in hepatocellular carcinoma immune response and thus affect the efficiency of immunotherapy. In this review, we discuss related research on the roles of exosomes in the current immunotherapy resistance mechanism of hepatocellular carcinoma. Furthermore, we also clarify the excellent predictive value of exosomes and the roles they play in improving immunotherapy efficacy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients. We hope that our review can help readers to gain a more comprehensive understanding of exosomes’ roles in hepatocellular carcinoma immunotherapy.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most lethal malignancies, having a significantly poor prognosis and no sufficiently efficient treatments. Immunotherapy, especially immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), has provided new therapeutic approaches for HCC patients. Nevertheless, most patients with HCC do not benefit from immunotherapy. Exosomes are biologically active lipid bilayer nano-sized vesicles ranging in size from 30 to 150 nm and can be secreted by almost any cell. In the HCC tumor microenvironment (TME), numerous cells are involved in tumor progression, and exosomes—derived from tumor cells and immune cells—exhibit unique composition profiles and act as intercellular communicators by transporting various substances. Showing the dual characteristics of tumor promotion and suppression, exosomes exert multiple functions in shaping tumor immune responses in the crosstalk between tumor cells and surrounding immune cells, mediating immunotherapy resistance by affecting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis or the anti-tumor function of immune cells in the TME. Targeting exosomes or the application of exosomes as therapies is involved in many aspects of HCC immunotherapies (e.g., ICIs, tumor vaccines, and adoptive cell therapy) and may substantially enhance their efficacy. In this review, we discuss the impact of exosomes on the HCC TME and comprehensively summarize the role of exosomes in immunotherapy resistance and therapeutic application. We also discuss the potential of exosomes as biomarkers for predicting the efficacy of immunotherapy to help clinicians in identifying HCC patients who are amenable to immunotherapies.

Association of Energy Expenditure and Efficacy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated with Nivolumab

Background: Nivolumab improved patients’ survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). We aimed to evaluate resting energy expenditure (REE) (i.e., patients’ basal metabolism) to predict efficacy. Methods: We conducted a monocentric, observational study of mRCC patients receiving nivolumab between October 2015 and May 2020. REE was measured prior to initiating immunotherapy using indirect calorimetry to determine hypo, normo and hypermetabolism. Primary endpoint was 6-month, progression-free survival (PFS), and secondary endpoints were response rate, PFS and overall survival (OS). Results: Of the 51 consecutive patients, 15 (29%) were hypermetabolic, 24 (47%) normometabolic, and 12 (24%) hypometabolic. The 6-month PFS was 15% for hypermetabolic patients and 65% for non-hypermetabolic patients (p < 0.01). In the multivariate analysis, hypermetabolism was the only baseline factor predicting 6-month PFS (OR 9.91, 95%CI [1.62−60.55], p = 0.01). Disease progression was noted as the best response in 73% of hypermetabolic patients and 26% of non-hypermetabolic patients (p = 0.02). Median PFS was 2.8 and 8.7 months (p < 0.01), and median OS was 20.2 and 35.1 months (p = 0.13) in the hypermetabolic and non-hypermetabolic groups, respectively. Conclusions: Our study identifies an association between mRCC patients’ energy expenditure and nivolumab efficacy. The measurement of REE by indirect calorimetry in routine practice could help identify patients at risk of nivolumab failure.

Real-World Therapy with Pembrolizumab: Outcomes and Surrogate Endpoints for Predicting Survival in Advanced Melanoma Patients in Germany

Simple Summary

Knowledge on the real-world outcomes of patients with advanced melanoma and the value of different endpoints for evaluating survival benefits is limited. We investigated the outcomes and different surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in 664 pembrolizumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma in Germany. Our findings support the effectiveness of pembrolizumab in real-world clinical practice. The real-world time to next treatment was most strongly correlated with OS, suggesting it as a valuable surrogate endpoint to assess treatment effectiveness. Real-world studies assessing time to next treatment could support clinical and payer decision making.

Abstract

Knowledge on the real-world characteristics and outcomes of pembrolizumab-treated advanced melanoma patients in Germany and on the value of different real-world endpoints as surrogates for overall survival (OS) is limited. A sample of 664 pembrolizumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma from the German registry ADOReg was used. We examined OS, real-world progression-free survival (rwPFS), real-world time to next treatment (rwTtNT), and real-world time on treatment (rwToT). Spearman’s rank and iterative multiple imputation (IMI)-based correlation coefficients were computed between the OS and the rwPFS, rwTtNT, and rwToT and reported for the first line of therapy and the overall sample. The median OS was 30.5 (95%CI 25.0–35.4) months, the rwPFS was 3.9 months (95%CI 3.5–4.9), the rwTtNT was 10.7 months (95%CI 9.0–12.9), and the rwToT was 6.2 months (95%CI 5.1–6.8). The rwTtNT showed the highest correlation with the OS based on the IMI (rIMI = 0.83), Spearman rank correlations (rs = 0.74), followed by the rwToT (rIMI = 0.74 and rs = 0.65) and rwPFS (rIMI = 0.69 and rs = 0.56). The estimates for the outcomes and correlations were similar for the overall sample and those in first-line therapy. The median OS was higher compared to recent real-world studies, supporting the effectiveness of pembrolizumab in regular clinical practice. The rwTtNT may be a valuable OS surrogate, considering the highest correlation was observed with the OS among the investigated real-world endpoints.

The Predictive Potential of the Baseline C-Reactive Protein Levels for the Efficiency of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The relationship between baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) level and the prognosis of cancer patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment remains controversial. The aim of this meta-analysis was to clarify whether baseline CRP level can serve as a biomarker to predict the efficiency of ICI therapy.

Methods

All associated articles published in the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and PubMed databases from the inception of the database to December 30, 2021, were retrieved. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes were meta-analyzed using the random-effects model and adjusted using the trim-and-fill method because of publication bias.

Results

Thirty-three studies (6,124 patients) conducted between 2013 and 2021 were identified. The pooled outcomes implied that high baseline CRP level patients had significantly worse OS (adjusted pooled value for univariate and multivariate analysis outcomes: HR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.41-1.56; HR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.34-1.59) and PFS (adjusted pooled value for univariate and multivariate analysis outcomes: HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.15-1.45; HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.02-1.40) than low baseline CRP level patients, irrespective of cancer or ICI type. Further analysis indicated that 1 mg/dl was appropriate as a cutoff value for determining the low or high level of baseline CRP to predict the OS or PFS of cancer patients receiving ICI treatment (univariate analysis: HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.24-1.97, P = 0.909; multivariate analysis: HR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.23-2.03, P = 0.521).

Conclusions

High baseline CRP level (>1 mg/dl) may be an indicator for worse OS and PFS of cancer patients treated with ICIs. More high-quality prospective studies are warranted to assess the predictive value of CRP for ICI treatment.

Immunotherapies for hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer, more specifically hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is the second leading cause of cancer-related death and its incidence is increasing globally. Around 50% of patients with HCC receive systemic therapies, traditionally sorafenib or lenvatinib in the first line and regorafenib, cabozantinib or ramucirumab in the second line. In the past 5 years, immune-checkpoint inhibitors have revolutionized the management of HCC. The combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab has been shown to improve overall survival relative to sorafenib, resulting in FDA approval of this regimen. More recently, durvalumab plus tremelimumab yielded superior overall survival versus sorafenib and atezolizumab plus cabozantinib yielded superior progression-free survival. In addition, pembrolizumab monotherapy and the combination of nivolumab plus ipilimumab have received FDA Accelerated Approval in the second-line setting based on early efficacy data. Despite these major advances, the molecular underpinnings governing immune responses and evasion remain unclear. The immune microenvironment has crucial roles in the development and progression of HCC and distinct aetiology-dependent immune features have been defined. Inflamed and non-inflamed classes of HCC and genomic signatures have been associated with response to immune-checkpoint inhibitors, yet no validated biomarker is available to guide clinical decision-making. This Review provides information on the immune microenvironments underlying the response or resistance of HCC to immunotherapies. In addition, current evidence from phase III trials on the efficacy, immune-related adverse events and aetiology-dependent mechanisms of response are described. Finally, we discuss emerging trials assessing immunotherapies across all stages of HCC that might change the management of this disease in the near future.

Association of Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA With Outcomes for Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Receiving Anti-Programmed Cell Death 1 Immunotherapy

IMPORTANCE

Anti-programmed cell death 1 (anti-PD-1) immunotherapy features a durable response and improved survival in a small subset of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC). The association between plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA titer dynamics and efficacy of anti-PD-1 monotherapy has been reported, while its value in predicting long-term outcomes and monitoring disease progression is unclear for patients with RM-NPC who are receiving anti-PD-1 monotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of plasma EBV DNA titers in prognosis prediction and surveillance of disease progression for patients with RM-NPC who are receiving anti-PD-1 monotherapy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Patients with RM-NPC from the POLARIS-02 prospective clinical trial, the largest cohort to receive anti-PD-1 monotherapy, were included in this study. From December 22, 2016, to February 19, 2019, 17 participating centers in China screened 279 patients with RM-NPC; 190 patients were enrolled and followed up until February 19, 2020. Plasma EBV DNA was detected before treatment and every 4 weeks until disease progression.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Plasma EBV DNA as a predictor for progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), durable clinical benefit (defined as PFS of ≥6 months), and disease progression.

RESULTS

Of 179 patients with RM-NPC receiving anti-PD-1 therapy, 148 (82.7%) were men, and the median age was 46 years (range, 22-71 years). A higher baseline EBV DNA titer was associated with shorter median OS (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.22-2.89; P = .004). Patients with a ratio of the EBV DNA titer at week 4 to that at baseline (W4 to baseline ratio) greater than 0.5 had shorter median OS (hazard ratio, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.30-3.65; P < .001) than those with a W4 to baseline ratio of 0.5 or less. Patients with higher baseline EBV DNA titers had a lower durable clinical benefit rate than those with lower baseline EBV DNA titers (19 of 97 [19.6%] vs 27 of 71 [38.0%]; P = .01). Similarly, patients with a W4 to baseline ratio greater than 0.5 had a lower durable clinical benefit rate than those with a W4 to baseline ratio of 0.5 or less (9 of 86 [10.5%] vs 32 of 54 [59.3%]; P < .001). In addition, a significant EBV DNA titer increase was present at a median of 2.6 months (IQR, 0.9-4.5 months) prior to radiographic progression.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study of plasma EBV DNA in patients with RM-NPC who are receiving anti-PD-1 monotherapy suggests that plasma EBV DNA could be a useful biomarker for outcomes and monitoring disease progression.

Bayesian two-stage design for phase II oncology trials with binary endpoint

In phase II oncology trials, two-stage design allowing early stopping for futility and/or efficacy is frequently used. However, this design based on frequentist statistical approaches could not guarantee a high posterior probability of attending the pre-specified clinically interesting rate from a Bayesian perspective. Here, we proposed a new Bayesian design enabling early terminating for efficacy as well as futility. In addition to the clinically uninteresting and interesting response rate, a prior distribution of response rate, the minimum posterior threshold probabilities and the lengths of the highest posterior density intervals were specified in the design. Finally, we defined the feasible design with the highest total effective predictive probability. We studied the properties of the proposed design and applied it to an oncology trial as an example. The proposed design ensured that the observed response rate fell within prespecified levels of posterior probability. The proposed design provides an alternative design to single-arm two-stage trials.

Modelling approaches for histology-independent cancer drugs to inform NICE appraisals: a systematic review and decision-framework

BACKGROUND

The first histology-independent marketing authorisation in Europe was granted in 2019. This was the first time that a cancer treatment was approved based on a common biomarker rather than the location in the body at which the tumour originated. This research aims to explore the implications for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals.

METHODS

Targeted reviews were undertaken to determine the type of evidence that is likely to be available at the point of marketing authorisation and the analyses required to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Several challenges were identified concerning the design and conduct of trials for histology-independent products, the greater levels of heterogeneity within the licensed population and the use of surrogate end points. We identified approaches to address these challenges by reviewing key statistical literature that focuses on the design and analysis of histology-independent trials and by undertaking a systematic review to evaluate the use of response end points as surrogate outcomes for survival end points. We developed a decision framework to help to inform approval and research policies for histology-independent products. The framework explored the uncertainties and risks associated with different approval policies, including the role of further data collection, pricing schemes and stratified decision-making.

RESULTS

We found that the potential for heterogeneity in treatment effects, across tumour types or other characteristics, is likely to be a central issue for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Bayesian hierarchical methods may serve as a useful vehicle to assess the level of heterogeneity across tumours and to estimate the pooled treatment effects for each tumour, which can inform whether or not the assumption of homogeneity is reasonable. Our review suggests that response end points may not be reliable surrogates for survival end points. However, a surrogate-based modelling approach, which captures all relevant uncertainty, may be preferable to the use of immature survival data. Several additional sources of heterogeneity were identified as presenting potential challenges to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal, including the cost of testing, baseline risk, quality of life and routine management costs. We concluded that a range of alternative approaches will be required to address different sources of heterogeneity to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. An exemplar case study was developed to illustrate the nature of the assessments that may be required.

CONCLUSIONS

Adequately designed and analysed basket studies that assess the homogeneity of outcomes and allow borrowing of information across baskets, where appropriate, are recommended. Where there is evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and estimates of cost-effectiveness, consideration should be given to optimised recommendations. Routine presentation of the scale of the consequences of heterogeneity and decision uncertainty may provide an important additional approach to the assessments specified in the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence methods guide.

FURTHER RESEARCH

Further exploration of Bayesian hierarchical methods could help to inform decision-makers on whether or not there is sufficient evidence of homogeneity to support pooled analyses. Further research is also required to determine the appropriate basis for apportioning genomic testing costs where there are multiple targets and to address the challenges of uncontrolled Phase II studies, including the role and use of surrogate end points.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 76. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Retrospective analysis of long-term survival factors in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with nivolumab

Background

Nivolumab, an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI), has changed the treatment paradigm for advanced non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, factors associated with long‐term survival in NSCLC patients treated with ICIs remain unknown. This study aimed to evaluate patient characteristics and clinical laboratory changes related to long‐term survival in NSCLC patients treated with nivolumab, using real‐world data.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of consecutive patients with advanced NSCLC with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG‐PS) ≤1 treated with nivolumab. We defined patients with overall survival (OS) ≥3 years as long‐term survivors. We evaluated the differences in patient characteristics and tumor response between nonlong‐term survivors and long‐term survivors and performed univariate and multivariate analyses of factors associated with long‐term survival.

Results

Out of 213 patients with advanced NSCLC treated with nivolumab, 162 patients with ECOG‐PS ≤1 were included in the study. Young age, ECOG‐PS 0, absolute neutrophil count decrease, lymphocyte percentage increase, and neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR) change (ΔNLR) <1 were significantly associated with long‐term survival. Long‐term survivors had significantly higher response and disease control rates than nonlong‐term survivors. Multivariate analysis showed that ΔNLR <1 was significantly associated with long‐term survival. Further, OS was significantly different between the PS 0 and PS 1 groups (median OS: 32.0 months vs. 10.6 months) and the nonincreasing NLR and increasing NLR groups (median OS: 20.8 months vs. 5.7 months).

Conclusions

ΔNLR <1 was a significant long‐term survival factor compared to ΔNLR ≥1 in advanced NSCLC patients treated with nivolumab.

Association of PD-L1 Expression on Tumor and Immune Cells with Survival in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Assay Validation

Programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1), expressed on both tumor cells (TC) and tumor-associated immune cells (IC), has been shown to be a useful biomarker and predictive of response to anti-PD-L1 agents in certain tumor types. In recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC), there is a growing interest in the role of PD-L1 expression on ICs, as well as TCs, for predicting response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Using pooled data from the phase II HAWK and CONDOR studies, we investigated the association of baseline PD-L1 expression with durvalumab efficacy in patients with R/M HNSCC. To determine an optimal PD-L1 cut-off point for predicting survival, we assessed PD-L1 expression levels at different TC and IC cut-off points in patients treated with durvalumab. Longer survival was associated with higher TC membrane PD-L1 expression and IC staining. When the combined TC/IC algorithm was applied, a cut-off point for PD-L1 expression of ≥50% on TCs or ≥25% on ICs (TC ≥ 50%/IC ≥ 25%) showed a higher objective response rate (17.2% vs. 8.8%), longer median progression-free survival (2.8 vs. 1.9 months), and longer median overall survival (8.4 vs. 5.4 months) in the PD-L1-high versus PD-L1-low/negative patient populations, respectively. A scoring algorithm combining PD-L1 expression on TCs and ICs using the cut-off point TC ≥ 50%/IC ≥ 25% was optimal for identifying patients with HNSCC most likely to benefit from durvalumab treatment. The new algorithm is robust and can be reproducibly scored by trained pathologists.

SIGNIFICANCE

A novel algorithm for PD-L1 expression using the cut-off point TC ≥ 50%/IC ≥ 25% is robust for identifying patients with HNSCC most likely to benefit from durvalumab treatment and can be reproducibly scored by trained pathologists.

Development and validation of a host-dependent, PDL1-independent, biomarker to predict 6-month progression-free survival in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (mNSCLC) patients treated with anti-PD1 immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in the CERTIM Cohort: The ELY study

Background

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) are dramatically active in a minority of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We studied here the relationship between patients's metabolism and outcome under ICI.

Methods

Metastatic NSCLC patients underwent a nutritional assessment prior to initiating immunotherapy. Resting energy expenditure (REE) was measured (mREE) using ambulatory indirect calorimetry and compared with the theoretical value (tREE) provided by the Harris and Benedict formula. The primary endpoint was 6-month progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints included objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) based on investigator review per RECIST v1.1. and overall survival (OS). The association of patient's metabolism with 6-month PFS was first explored in a single-center training cohort to estimate the effect size. The relationship between patient's metabolism and 6-month PFS was then tested in an independent non interventional observational prospective cohort (ELY) of 100 patients recruited in two tertiary university centers.

Findings

In the entire cohort, the ORR was 14% for the hypermetabolic group (n = 10/74) vs 38% for the normometabolic group (n = 26/68), respectively (estimated difference 25%, 95CI 9–40%, p = 0.001). The DCR was 28% for the hypermetabolic group (n = 21/74) vs 53% for the normometabolic group (n = 36/68), respectively (estimated difference 25%, 95CI 7–42%, p = 0.005). In the validation cohort (100 patients, 2 centers), normometabolic patients (defined as mREE/tREE < 110%) had increased 6-month PFS (57% versus 22%; odds ratio: 4.76; IC95 [1.87 – 12.89]; p<0.001) and improved overall survival (HR 2.20; IC95: 1.41–3.44; p<0.001). The positive and negative predictive values of normometabolism to identify non-progressive patients at 6 months, were 57% and 78% respectively, sensitivity was 72% and specificity was 66%. In multivariate analysis including PD-L1 tumor status, basal metabolism was an independent predictive factor for 6-month PFS.

Interpretation

Normometabolism is a new independent parameter to identify mNSCLC patients who will benefit from ICI, with both improved tumor response, 6-month PFS, and survival.

Funding

This work was supported by Baxter (04012016).

Avelumab as second-line therapy for metastatic, platinum-treated urothelial carcinoma in the phase Ib JAVELIN Solid Tumor study: 2-year updated efficacy and safety analysis

Background

Anti-programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1)/programmed cell death 1 antibodies have shown clinical activity in platinum-treated metastatic urothelial carcinoma, resulting in regulatory approval of several agents, including avelumab (anti-PD-L1). We report ≥2-year follow-up data for avelumab treatment and exploratory subgroup analyses in patients with urothelial carcinoma.

Methods

Patients with previously treated advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma, pooled from two cohorts of the phase Ib JAVELIN Solid Tumor trial, received avelumab 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity or withdrawal. End points included best overall response and progression-free survival (PFS) per RECIST V.1.1, overall survival (OS) and safety. Post hoc analyses included objective response rates (ORRs) in subgroups defined by established high-risk/poor-prognosis characteristics and association between time to response and outcome.

Results

249 patients received avelumab; efficacy was assessed in 242 postplatinum patients. Median follow-up was 31.9 months (range 24–43), and median treatment duration was 2.8 months (range 0.5–42.8). The confirmed ORR was 16.5% (95% CI 12.1% to 21.8%; complete response in 4.1% and partial response in 12.4%). Median duration of response was 20.5 months (95% CI 9.7 months to not estimable). Median PFS was 1.6 months (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7 months) and the 12-month PFS rate was 16.8% (95% CI 11.9% to 22.4%). Median OS was 7.0 months (95% CI 5.9 to 8.5 months) and the 24-month OS rate was 20.1% (95% CI 15.2% to 25.4%). In post hoc exploratory analyses, avelumab showed antitumor activity in high-risk subgroups, including elderly patients and those with renal insufficiency or upper tract disease; ORRs were numerically lower in patients with liver metastases or low albumin levels. Objective response achieved by 3 months versus later was associated with longer OS (median not reached (95% CI 18.9 months to not estimable) vs 7.1 months (95% CI 5.2 to 9.0 months)). Safety findings were consistent with previously reported 6-month analyses.

Conclusions

After ≥2 years of follow-up, avelumab showed prolonged efficacy and acceptable safety in patients with platinum-treated advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma, including high-risk subgroups. Survival appeared longer in patients who responded within 3 months. Long-term safety findings were consistent with earlier reports with avelumab treatment in this patient population.

Potential predictors for survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) are increasingly used in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) trials. However, the correlations between early endpoints, such as progression free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and disease control rate (DCR), and overall survival (OS) are unclear. In this study, the correlations between OS and other early endpoints were evaluated in HCC patients who received ICI.

METHODS

Pubmed and Embase were searched to October 2020. Clinical studies evaluating efficacy and outcomes of HCC patients treated with ICI were included. ORR, DCR, PFS and OS were extracted from individual studies. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and linear regression model were used to assess the correlation.

RESULTS

74 studies involving 9001 HCC cases were included. For HCC patients treated with ICI, the pooled ORR and DCR were 16% (95% CI: 14-18%) and 52% (95% CI: 47-57%), and the median PFS and OS were 3.75 (95% CI: 2.88-4.90) months, and 13.20 (95% CI: 11.88-14.82) months, retrospectively. The correlation between ORR, DCR, PFS and OS were 0.35 (R² = 0.21, p < 0.05), 0.43 (R² = 0.18, p < 0.05), and 0.50 (R² = 0.33, p < 0.05), respectively. Further, the association between PFS and OS of the combination strategy showed a better correlation (rs = 0.79, R² = 0.75, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that PFS could be potential surrogates for OS, especially PFS for patients who treated with ICI combination regimen.

Feasibility of Randomized Controlled Trials for Cancer Drugs Approved by the Food and Drug Administration Based on Single-Arm Studies

Background

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) introduced an Accelerated Approval (AA) pathway to expedite patient access to new drugs. AA accepts less rigorous trial designs, including single-arm studies (SAS), owing to perceived lack of feasibility of timely randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods

We designed hypothetical RCTs with endpoints of overall response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) for FDA approvals based on SAS for solid tumors during 2010-2019. Existing standards of care served as controls. RCTs were designed to detect a difference with power of 0.80, α-error of 5% (2-sided), and 1:1 randomization. Accrual duration was estimated based on participation by less than 5% of eligible patients derived from cancer-specific incidence and mortality rates in the United States.

Results

Of 172 (18.0%) approvals during the study period, 31 (18.0%) were based on SAS. Median sample size was 104 (range = 23-411), and 77.4% were AA. All studies reported ORR, 55% reported duration of response, 19.4% reported PFS, and 22.5% reported OS. Median sample sizes needed to conduct RCTs with endpoints of ORR, PFS, and OS were 206, 130, and 396, respectively. It would have been theoretically possible to conduct RCTs within duration comparable with that required by SAS for 84.6%, 94.1%, and 80.0% of approvals with endpoints of ORR, PFS, and OS, respectively.

Conclusion

An overwhelming majority of FDA approvals based on SAS should be feasible as RCTs within a reasonable time frame. Given the collateral harms to patients and to scientific rigor, drug approval based on SAS should only be permitted under exceptional circumstances.

Tumor Response End Points as Surrogates for Overall Survival in Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

Many immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been approved on the basis of tumor response end points in nonrandomized trials, including objective response rate (ORR) and duration and depth of response. We aimed to assess the validity of these end points as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced solid tumors treated with ICIs at trial and treatment arm levels.

METHODS

ICI trials in advanced solid cancers published between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2020, were included. Correlations between ORR, durable response (DR) of ≥ 6 months, complete response (CR), and OS were assessed for treatment comparisons (trial-level) and for patients receiving ICI (arm-level), using weighted linear regression.

RESULTS

Sixty-three trials were eligible, including 58 randomized controlled trials and 20 nonrandomized controlled trials (78 ICI arms and 30,815 patients). The majority were phase III (63%), and OS was the most common primary end point (40%). In relative treatment comparisons, correlations between ORR risk ratio and OS hazard ratio (HR), 6-month DR ratio and OS HR, and CR ratio and OS HR were r = 0.58, r = 0.62, and r = 0.42, respectively. Exploratory studies in melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, and other tumors showed similar results, although 6-month DR ratio was strongly correlated with OS HR (r = 0.89). Within ICI arms only, correlations between ORR and 12-month OS, 6-month DR and 12-month OS, and CR and 12-month OS were r = 0.76, r = 0.84, and r = 0.50, respectively, in all eligible trials.

CONCLUSION

Relative measures of tumor response (ORR, 6-month DR, and CR) are poor surrogate end points for OS in ICI studies. However, ORR and 6-month DR are prognostic of 12-month OS in ICI studies supporting their use for screening activity of novel agents in early-phase nonrandomized trials.

Surrogate Endpoints in Oncology: Overview of Systematic Reviews and Their Use for Health Decision Making in Mexico

OBJECTIVES

The use of surrogate endpoints (SEs) for cancer drug approval in health systems is common. The objectives of this study were to identify systematic reviews (SRs) that evaluated the correlation of SEs with overall survival (OS) in cancer drugs to analyze the applications of approved cancer drugs with SEs in Mexico and to apply the validation framework proposed by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG).

METHODS

An overview of SRs was conducted according to Cochrane Collaboration methodology. Applications for approved cancer drugs with SEs in Mexico were analyzed. The IQWiG validation framework was applied to evaluate the SEs identified in the overview and in the applications in Mexico.

RESULTS

A total of 85 SRs that assessed 192 SEs for different types of cancer were selected. According to the IQWiG model, only 2.5% of the SEs analyzed in the overview and only one of the applications in Mexico could be used as surrogates for OS because the reliability (methodological quality) of the SRs and the strength of the correlation of SEs with OS was mostly low (92%) and low (correlation coefficient r ≤ 0.7; 50.5%), respectively. Of the total number of cancer drugs approved in Mexico, 19.4% used SEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Most SEs for different types of cancer could not be used as surrogates for OS according to the IQWiG model, and their use for the approval of cancer drugs in Mexico is generally not justified.

Differences in treatment effect size between progression-free survival and overall survival in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors-based trials in advanced NSCLC: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

To investigate the differences in treatment effect sizes between progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) and its ligand (PD-L1) blockade-based treatments.

Methods

The differences in treatment effect sizes between PFS and OS were assessed by using a ratio of hazard ratio (rHR): the HR for PFS to that for OS. A random effects meta-analysis across trials was conducted to generate the combined rHR. We also evaluated the feasibility of adopting PFS as the surrogate of OS by using Spearman correlation coefficient (R) between logHR_PFS and logHR_OS.

Results

A total of 27 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with 15,590 patients were included. Treatment effect sizes were comparable, on average, for OS than for PFS (pooled rHR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.08). Subgroup analysis revealed that treatment effect sizes were greater for OS than for PFS for trials with immunotherapy as second or above line treatment (rHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.29), while the differences were greater for PFS than for OS for trials with immunotherapy as first-line setting (rHR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.99; P_interaction<0.01). The coefficient of determination was 40% and R was 0.63 between logHR_PFS and logHR_OS. Subgroup analysis showed that coefficient of determination and R were 62% and 0.79 in trials with immunotherapy as first-line setting, 22% and 0.47 in trials with immunotherapy as second or above line treatment, respectively.

Discussion

Treatment effect sizes between PFS and OS were roughly consistent in trials with different anti-PD-(L)1 inhibitor-based therapies. PFS could be a potential alternative endpoint for OS in trials with immunotherapy as first-line setting, but PFS should be cautiously interpreted without OS data for trials with immunotherapy as second or above line treatment.

Novel PD-1 inhibitor prolgolimab: expanding non-resectable/metastatic melanoma therapy choice

BACKGROUND

Prolgolimab is an IgG1 anti-PD-1 (programmed cell death protein 1) monoclonal antibody containing the Fc-silencing 'LALA' mutation. We assessed the efficacy and safety of two dosing regimens of prolgolimab in patients with advanced melanoma in a multicenter open-label parallel-arm phase II trial (MIRACULUM). We present the final analysis after 1 year of follow-up and additional efficacy results from 2 years of follow-up.

METHODS

Patients with advanced cutaneous or non-cutaneous melanoma, including stable brain metastasis, without autoimmune disease and who underwent no prior targeted therapy, anti-PD-(L)1 or anti-CTLA-4 (cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4) therapy were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive prolgolimab in 2 dosing regimens, 1 mg/kg every 2 weeks (arm 1) or 3 mg/kg every 3 weeks (arm 2), until disease progression or intolerable toxicity. Randomisation was stratified based on performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0 or 1), lactate dehydrogenase levels (elevated or normal) and prior systemic therapy (naive or previously treated). The primary outcome was the objective response rate, assessed as per immune-related Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours by independent central review. The hypothesis that each dosing regimen of prolgolimab has an overall response rate >28% was tested independently for each study arm comprising all patients who received at least one dose of prolgolimab. Exploratory assessment of efficacy, including subgroup analysis, at 2 years of follow-up was not specified in the protocol. This study is registered withClinicalTrials.gov(NCT03269565).

RESULTS

Between August 2017 and March 2018, 126 patients with advanced melanoma were enrolled. At main 1-year data cut-off, the median follow-up was 13.8 and 14.5 months in arm 1 and 2, respectively. An objective response was observed in 38.1% of patients (arm 1) and in 28.6% (arm 2). Grade III-IV treatment-related adverse events occurred in 12.7% and 3.2% of patients in arm 1 and 2, respectively. For exploratory efficacy analysis, the median follow-up was 25.4 and 25.7 months in arm 1 and 2, respectively. The 2-year progression-free survival was 33.3% in arm 1 and 30.2% in arm 2, and the 2-year overall survival was 57.1% and 46.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The MIRACULUM study met its primary end-point in both the study arms. Prolgolimab showed significant antitumour activity and a manageable safety profile in patients with advanced melanoma.

Efficacy and safety of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 combinations versus standard of care in cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) as monotherapy in different solid tumors showed an early detrimental effect in a subset of patients reflected by the early crossover of the progression-free survival (PFS) curves. Currently, combination therapies with ICIs added to chemotherapy or targeted therapy are expanding the landscape of metastatic solid tumors. We have examined the benefits and risks of adding ICIs to the standard of care (SOC) versus SOC alone.

A search of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing ICIs combinations versus the corresponding SOC in different metastatic tumors according to the PRISMA guidelines was performed. Selected endpoints included PFS, time-to-response (TTR), overall survival (OS), overall response rate (ORR), and ≥ grade 3 adverse events (AEs). Subgroup analyses based on backbone treatment and tumor type were included.

A total of 10536 patients (19 studies) were included (ICIs-arm: 5596 patients; SOC-arm: 4940 patients). Globally, PFS, OS, and ORR results favored ICIs-arm. No differences in terms of TTR were found between arms. ICI-arm was associated with a slight increase of ≥ G3 AEs (relative risk: 1.07). The results in multiple myeloma patients are controversial in favor of ICIs combinations.

Adding ICIs to SOC benefits a greater number of patients, prolonging survival with no early detrimental effect. The toxicity profile is safe, with a mild increase of high-grade manageable AEs.

Characterizing tumor shrinkage as a measure of clinical benefit for immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

We explored whether the effectiveness of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) can be characterized by incorporating a composite of duration of response (DOR) to complement traditional Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria for objective response rate (ORR) in an intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Furthermore, the correlation of this novel endpoint, characterized by the restricted mean time in response (RMTR), with overall survival (OS) will be examined.

METHODS

We analyzed ORR alone or in combination with DOR (RMTR) in available phase I, II, and III trials evaluating nivolumab monotherapy or in combination with ipilimumab across solid tumor types. ORR was evaluated per RECIST V.1.1. DOR was estimated using individual patient data in ITT populations regardless of RECIST response, with non-responders imputed as zero. Associations between ORR alone or RMTR and OS were evaluated in the ITT population. DOR curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method, and 6-month RMTR, a measure of response durability, was derived from the area under the curves. For ORR and RMTR in the ITT population, the strength of association with OS was analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficients (r).

RESULTS

Nivolumab treatment was associated with longer response durations than active control in responder and ITT populations. Similarly, ORR and RMTR were both significantly correlated with OS (ORR vs OS: r=0.684, p=0.02; RMTR vs OS: r=0.695, p=0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

Combining ORR and DOR (RMTR) to objectively characterize tumor shrinkage in an ITT patient population is a novel approach that appears to correlate well with OS in patients treated with nivolumab monotherapy or in combination with ipilimumab. This endpoint may provide a more complete characterization of tumor shrinkage to incorporate into the design of future ICI clinical trials. However, confirmation of this approach will require further research.

Impact of Advantage in Tumor Response on the Correlation Between Progression-Free Survival and Overall Survival: Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Progression-free survival (PFS) has not been validated as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate an impact of advantage in tumor response on the correlation between PFS and OS in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

METHODS

Based on a literature search, we identified randomized controlled trials of first-line therapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. The impact of absolute difference in objective response rate between treatment arms on the correlation between hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS and OS was evaluated based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

Sixty trials with a total of 29,134 patients were identified. The HR for PFS showed a relatively higher correlation with HR for OS (r_s = 0.75) when the trials were limited to those that demonstrated a larger advantage in objective response rate, compared with the case for trials that demonstrated a smaller advantage (r_s = 0.66). This tendency was also observed in the subgroup analysis stratified by the types of treatment agents (non-targeted, anti-angiogenic, and immunotherapy) except for the group of epidermal growth factor receptor-targeted agents.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of advantage in tumor response was suggested to contribute to a better prediction of OS-HR based on PFS-HR in clinical trials in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.