Somatostatin analogues for acute bleeding oesophageal varices

Hemorrhagic Shock from Acute Variceal Bleeding Caused by Sarcoidosis: A Case Report

Sarcoidosis is a disease of unknown etiology, characterized by noncaseating granulomas. Generally, the condition primarily manifests in the lungs. Extrapulmonary involvement is common, but localization in the gastrointestinal system is rare. Here, we present the case of a 37-year-old male who became increasingly hemodynamically unstable during the diagnostic workup for sarcoidosis due to acute variceal bleeding. The underlying mechanism was later attributed to portal hypertension caused by hepatic involvement of the disease. This case demonstrates the importance of considering variceal hemorrhage as a rare but life-threatening complication of gastrointestinal localization of sarcoidosis.

Expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE)-covered stents versus bare stents for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in people with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a widely used procedure for management of uncontrolled upper gastrointestinal bleeding and refractory ascites in people with liver cirrhosis. However, nearly half of the people experience shunt dysfunction and recurrent symptoms within one year of the procedure. Expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE)-covered stents are assumed to decrease shunt dysfunction by approximately 20% to 30%.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the benefits and harms associated with the use of expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE)-covered stents versus bare stents in transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPSs) for managing people with liver cirrhosis.

SEARCH METHODS

We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was 28 February 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials comparing ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents in TIPS for treatment of people with liver cirrhosis.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were 1. all-cause mortality, 2. procedure-related complications, and 3. health-related quality of life. Our secondary outcomes were 4. upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 5. recurrence of ascites, 6. hepatic encephalopathy, 7. kidney failure, 8. early thrombosis, 9. non-serious adverse events, and 10. shunt dysfunction. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence. We analysed outcome data at the maximum follow-up, except for the 'early thrombosis' outcome for which it was within 12 weeks after the TIPS procedure.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four trials with 565 randomised participants (age range: 18 to 75 years; male range: 63.6% to 75.0%). A total of 527 participants provided data for analyses because of losses to follow-up. Two trials were conducted in China; one in France; and one in France, Spain, and Canada. Participants were classified with cirrhosis Child-Pugh class A, B, or C, and for some, the class was not reported. We used intention-to-treat principle (four trials) and per-protocol analysis (one trial) to meta-analyse the data. One trial compared ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents of the same diameter and three trials compared ePTFE-covered stents versus stents of different diameters. ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents of the same diameter One trial with 258 participants compared 8 mm covered stent versus 8 mm bare stent. Mortality in the covered stent group is possibly lower than in the bare stent group (risk ratio (RR) 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.92; low-certainty evidence). Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.84), recurrence of ascites (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.87), and shunt dysfunction (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.61) occurred more often in the bare stent group than in the covered stent group (all low-certainty evidence). There was no difference in hepatic encephalopathy between groups (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.61; very low-certainty evidence). The trial did not report data on procedure-related complications, health-related quality of life, early thrombosis, and segmental liver ischaemia (a non-serious adverse event). ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents of different stent diameters Three trials compared ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents of different diameters (10.5 (standard deviation (SD) 0.9) mm versus 11.7 (SD 0.8) mm; 8 mm versus 10 mm; and one trial used 10-mm stents that could be dilated from 8 mm to 10 mm). There was no evidence of a difference between the ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents groups in mortality (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.16; 3 trials, 269 participants), procedure-related complications (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.05 to 5.57; 1 trial, 80 participants), upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.38; 3 trials, 269 participants), hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.30; 3 trials, 269 participants), and kidney failure (RR 7.59, 95% CI 0.40 to 143.92; 1 trial, 121 participants) (all very low-certainty evidence). Recurrence of ascites (RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.85; 3 trials, 269 participants; low-certainty evidence), shunt dysfunction (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.92; 3 trials, 269 participants; low-certainty evidence), and early thrombosis (RR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.82; I2 = 0%; 3 trials, 261 participants; very low-certainty evidence) occurred more often in the bare stents group. There was no evidence of a difference in segmental liver ischaemia (RR 5.25, 95% CI 0.26 to 106.01; 1 trial, 80 participants; very low-certainty evidence). No trial presented data on health-related quality of life. Funding One trial did not clearly report funding sources. The remaining three trials declared that they had no funding with vested interests.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on the small number of trials with insufficient sample size and events, and study limitations, we assessed the overall certainty of evidence in the predefined outcomes as low or very low. Therefore, we are uncertain which of the two interventions (ePTFE-covered stents or bare stents of the same diameter and ePTFE-covered stents versus bare stents of different stent diameters) is effective for the evaluated outcomes. None of the four trials reported data on health-related quality of life, and data on complications were either missing or rarely reported. We lack high-quality trials to evaluate the role of ePTFE-covered stents for TIPS for managing people with liver cirrhosis.

The Clinical Challenge of Refractory Octreotide-Induced Thrombocytopenia in Active Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Case Report

The association between octreotide and thrombocytopenia has been documented in the literature but it remains a rare finding. We are reporting a 59-year-old female patient with alcoholic liver cirrhosis who presented with the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) bleeding secondary to esophageal varices. Initial management involved fluid and blood products resuscitation and initiation of both octreotide and pantoprazole infusion. However, the abrupt onset of severe thrombocytopenia was evident within a few hours of admission. Platelet transfusion and discontinuation of pantoprazole infusion failed to correct the abnormality prompting the holding off of octreotide. However, this also failed to control the decline in platelet count and prompted intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). This case helps to remind clinicians to closely monitor platelet count once octreotide is initiated. This allows early detection of the rare entity of octreotide-induced thrombocytopenia, which can be life-threatening with extremely low platelet count nadir.

The role of microRNAs on the pathogenesis, diagnosis and management of portal hypertension in patients with chronic liver disease

INTRODUCTION

Portal hypertension (PH) is the elevated pressure in the portal vein, which results in poor functioning of the liver and is influenced by various factors like liver cirrhosis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, schistosomiasis, thrombosis, and angiogenesis. Though the diagnosis and treatment have been advanced, early diagnosis of the disease remains a challenge, and the diagnosis methods are often invasive. Hence, the clear understanding of the molecular mechanisms of PH can give rise to the development of novel biomarkers which can pave way for early diagnosis in noninvasive methods, and also the identification of target genes can elucidate an efficient therapeutic target.

AREAS COVERED

PubMed and Embase database was used to search articles with search terms 'Portal Hypertension' or 'pathophysiology' and 'diagnosis' and 'treatment' or "role of miRNAs in portal hypertension.

EXPERT OPINION

Interestingly, biomarkers like microRNAs (miRNAs) have been studied for their potential role in various diseases including hypertension. In recent years, miRNAs have been proved to be an efficient biomarker and therapeutic target and few studies have assessed the roles of miRNAs in PH. The present paper highlights the potential roles of miRNAs in PH.

Retrieving Cochrane reviews is sometimes challenging and their reporting is not always optimal

Cochrane reviews are known to be a high quality source of evidence synthesis supporting health care decisions. In a recently conducted study, we analysed the trends in epidemiology and reporting of published systematic reviews over the last 20 years. This sample of 1,132 systematic reviews included 84 Cochrane reviews. We have learned several peculiarities of Cochrane reviews, that are worth being discussed in more detail due to their practical implications. Methodologists, clinicians and health care professionals should be aware of these limitations: 1) Cochrane reviews are not identified as systematic reviews in title, 2) Cochrane reviews do not always follow PRISMA reporting guidelines, 3) Some updates are only available via the Cochrane Library, and 4) Indexing of Cochrane Reviews in PubMed may be suboptimal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and management of emergencies in the patient with cirrhosis

The approach to and management of critically ill patients is one of the most versatile themes in emergency medicine. Patients with cirrhosis of the liver have characteristics that are inherent to their disease that can condition modification in acute emergency treatment. Pathophysiologic changes that occur in cirrhosis merit the implementation of an analysis as to whether the overall management of a critically ill patient can generally be applied to patients with cirrhosis of the liver or if they should be treated in a special manner. Through a review of the medical literature, the available information was examined, and the evidence found on the special management required by those patients was narratively synthesized, selecting the most representative decompensations within chronic disease that require emergency treatment.

Treatment for bleeding oesophageal varices in people with decompensated liver cirrhosis: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Approximately 40% to 95% of people with liver cirrhosis have oesophageal varices. About 15% to 20% of oesophageal varices bleed within about one to three years after diagnosis. Several different treatments are available, including, among others, endoscopic sclerotherapy, variceal band ligation, somatostatin analogues, vasopressin analogues, and balloon tamponade. However, there is uncertainty surrounding the individual and relative benefits and harms of these treatments.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the benefits and harms of different initial treatments for variceal bleeding from oesophageal varices in adults with decompensated liver cirrhosis, through a network meta-analysis; and to generate rankings of the different treatments for acute bleeding oesophageal varices, according to their benefits and harms.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until 17 December 2019, to identify randomised clinical trials (RCTs) in people with cirrhosis and acute bleeding from oesophageal varices.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included only RCTs (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) in adults with cirrhosis and acutely bleeding oesophageal varices. We excluded RCTs in which participants had bleeding only from gastric varices, those who failed previous treatment (refractory bleeding), those in whom initial haemostasis was achieved before inclusion into the trial, and those who had previously undergone liver transplantation.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We performed a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS software, using Bayesian methods, and calculated the differences in treatments using odds ratios (OR) and rate ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrI) based on an available-case analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. We performed also the direct comparisons from RCTs using the same codes and the same technical details.

MAIN RESULTS

We included a total of 52 RCTs (4580 participants) in the review. Forty-eight trials (4042 participants) were included in one or more comparisons in the review. The trials that provided the information included people with cirrhosis due to varied aetiologies and those with and without a previous history of bleeding. We included outcomes assessed up to six weeks. All trials were at high risk of bias. A total of 19 interventions were compared in the trials (sclerotherapy, somatostatin analogues, vasopressin analogues, sclerotherapy plus somatostatin analogues, variceal band ligation, balloon tamponade, somatostatin analogues plus variceal band ligation, nitrates plus vasopressin analogues, no active intervention, sclerotherapy plus variceal band ligation, balloon tamponade plus sclerotherapy, balloon tamponade plus somatostatin analogues, balloon tamponade plus vasopressin analogues, variceal band ligation plus vasopressin analogues, balloon tamponade plus nitrates plus vasopressin analogues, balloon tamponade plus variceal band ligation, portocaval shunt, sclerotherapy plus transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), and sclerotherapy plus vasopressin analogues). We have reported the effect estimates for the primary and secondary outcomes when there was evidence of differences between the interventions against the reference treatment of sclerotherapy, but reported the other results of the primary and secondary outcomes versus the reference treatment of sclerotherapy without the effect estimates when there was no evidence of differences in order to provide a concise summary of the results. Overall, 15.8% of the trial participants who received the reference treatment of sclerotherapy (chosen because this was the commonest treatment compared in the trials) died during the follow-up periods, which ranged from three days to six weeks. Based on moderate-certainty evidence, somatostatin analogues alone had higher mortality than sclerotherapy (OR 1.57, 95% CrI 1.04 to 2.41; network estimate; direct comparison: 4 trials; 353 participants) and vasopressin analogues alone had higher mortality than sclerotherapy (OR 1.70, 95% CrI 1.13 to 2.62; network estimate; direct comparison: 2 trials; 438 participants). None of the trials reported health-related quality of life. Based on low-certainty evidence, a higher proportion of people receiving balloon tamponade plus sclerotherapy had more serious adverse events than those receiving only sclerotherapy (OR 4.23, 95% CrI 1.22 to 17.80; direct estimate; 1 RCT; 60 participants). Based on moderate-certainty evidence, people receiving vasopressin analogues alone and those receiving variceal band ligation had fewer adverse events than those receiving only sclerotherapy (rate ratio 0.59, 95% CrI 0.35 to 0.96; network estimate; direct comparison: 1 RCT; 219 participants; and rate ratio 0.40, 95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74; network estimate; direct comparison: 1 RCT; 77 participants; respectively). Based on low-certainty evidence, the proportion of people who developed symptomatic rebleed was smaller in people who received sclerotherapy plus somatostatin analogues than those receiving only sclerotherapy (OR 0.21, 95% CrI 0.03 to 0.94; direct estimate; 1 RCT; 105 participants). The evidence suggests considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions in the remaining comparisons where sclerotherapy was the control intervention.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on moderate-certainty evidence, somatostatin analogues alone and vasopressin analogues alone (with supportive therapy) probably result in increased mortality, compared to endoscopic sclerotherapy. Based on moderate-certainty evidence, vasopressin analogues alone and band ligation alone probably result in fewer adverse events compared to endoscopic sclerotherapy. Based on low-certainty evidence, balloon tamponade plus sclerotherapy may result in large increases in serious adverse events compared to sclerotherapy. Based on low-certainty evidence, sclerotherapy plus somatostatin analogues may result in large decreases in symptomatic rebleed compared to sclerotherapy. In the remaining comparisons, the evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effects of the interventions, compared to sclerotherapy.

Primary prevention of variceal bleeding in people with oesophageal varices due to liver cirrhosis: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Approximately 40% to 95% of people with cirrhosis have oesophageal varices. About 15% to 20% of oesophageal varices bleed in about one to three years. There are several different treatments to prevent bleeding, including: beta-blockers, endoscopic sclerotherapy, and variceal band ligation. However, there is uncertainty surrounding their individual and relative benefits and harms.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the benefits and harms of different treatments for prevention of first variceal bleeding from oesophageal varices in adults with liver cirrhosis through a network meta-analysis and to generate rankings of the different treatments for prevention of first variceal bleeding from oesophageal varices according to their safety and efficacy.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers to December 2019 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices with no history of bleeding.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) in adults with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices with no history of bleeding. We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had previous bleeding from oesophageal varices and those who had previously undergone liver transplantation or previously received prophylactic treatment for oesophageal varices.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We performed a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods and calculated the differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR), and rate ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrI) based on an available-case analysis, according to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. We performed the direct comparisons from randomised clinical trials using the same codes and the same technical details.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 66 randomised clinical trials (6653 participants) in the review. Sixty trials (6212 participants) provided data for one or more comparisons in the review. The trials that provided the information included people with cirrhosis due to varied aetiologies and those at high risk of bleeding from oesophageal varices. The follow-up in the trials that reported outcomes ranged from 6 months to 60 months. All but one of the trials were at high risk of bias. The interventions compared included beta-blockers, no active intervention, variceal band ligation, sclerotherapy, beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus nitrates, nitrates, beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy, and portocaval shunt. Overall, 21.2% of participants who received non-selective beta-blockers ('beta-blockers') - the reference treatment (chosen because this was the most common treatment compared in the trials) - died during 8-month to 60-month follow-up. Based on low-certainty evidence, beta-blockers, variceal band ligation, sclerotherapy, and beta-blockers plus nitrates all had lower mortality versus no active intervention (beta-blockers: HR 0.49, 95% CrI 0.36 to 0.67; direct comparison HR: 0.59, 95% CrI 0.42 to 0.83; 10 trials, 1200 participants; variceal band ligation: HR 0.51, 95% CrI 0.35 to 0.74; direct comparison HR 0.49, 95% CrI 0.12 to 2.14; 3 trials, 355 participants; sclerotherapy: HR 0.66, 95% CrI 0.51 to 0.85; direct comparison HR 0.61, 95% CrI 0.41 to 0.90; 18 trials, 1666 participants; beta-blockers plus nitrates: HR 0.41, 95% CrI 0.20 to 0.85; no direct comparison). No trials reported health-related quality of life. Based on low-certainty evidence, variceal band ligation had a higher number of serious adverse events (number of events) than beta-blockers (rate ratio 10.49, 95% CrI 2.83 to 60.64; 1 trial, 168 participants). Based on low-certainty evidence, beta-blockers plus nitrates had a higher number of 'any adverse events (number of participants)' than beta-blockers alone (OR 3.41, 95% CrI 1.11 to 11.28; 1 trial, 57 participants). Based on low-certainty evidence, adverse events (number of events) were higher in sclerotherapy than in beta-blockers (rate ratio 2.49, 95% CrI 1.53 to 4.22; direct comparison rate ratio 2.47, 95% CrI 1.27 to 5.06; 2 trials, 90 participants), and in beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation than in beta-blockers (direct comparison rate ratio 1.72, 95% CrI 1.08 to 2.76; 1 trial, 140 participants). Based on low-certainty evidence, any variceal bleed was lower in beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation than in beta-blockers (direct comparison HR 0.21, 95% CrI 0.04 to 0.71; 1 trial, 173 participants). Based on low-certainty evidence, any variceal bleed was higher in nitrates than beta-blockers (direct comparison HR 6.40, 95% CrI 1.58 to 47.42; 1 trial, 52 participants). The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions in the remaining comparisons.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on low-certainty evidence, beta-blockers, variceal band ligation, sclerotherapy, and beta-blockers plus nitrates may decrease mortality compared to no intervention in people with high-risk oesophageal varices in people with cirrhosis and no previous history of bleeding. Based on low-certainty evidence, variceal band ligation may result in a higher number of serious adverse events than beta-blockers. The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of beta-blockers versus variceal band ligation on variceal bleeding. The evidence also indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions in most of the remaining comparisons.

Secondary prevention of variceal bleeding in adults with previous oesophageal variceal bleeding due to decompensated liver cirrhosis: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Approximately 40% to 95% of people with cirrhosis have oesophageal varices. About 15% to 20% of oesophageal varices bleed in about one to three years of diagnosis. Several different treatments are available, which include endoscopic sclerotherapy, variceal band ligation, beta-blockers, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), and surgical portocaval shunts, among others. However, there is uncertainty surrounding their individual and relative benefits and harms.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the benefits and harms of different initial treatments for secondary prevention of variceal bleeding in adults with previous oesophageal variceal bleeding due to decompensated liver cirrhosis through a network meta-analysis and to generate rankings of the different treatments for secondary prevention according to their safety and efficacy.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until December 2019 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with cirrhosis and a previous history of bleeding from oesophageal varices.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) in adults with cirrhosis and previous history of bleeding from oesophageal varices. We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had no previous history of bleeding from oesophageal varices, previous history of bleeding only from gastric varices, those who failed previous treatment (refractory bleeding), those who had acute bleeding at the time of treatment, and those who had previously undergone liver transplantation.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We performed a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods and calculated the differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR) and rate ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrI) based on an available-case analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance.

MAIN RESULTS

We included a total of 48 randomised clinical trials (3526 participants) in the review. Forty-six trials (3442 participants) were included in one or more comparisons. The trials that provided the information included people with cirrhosis due to varied aetiologies. The follow-up ranged from two months to 61 months. All the trials were at high risk of bias. A total of 12 interventions were compared in these trials (sclerotherapy, beta-blockers, variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy, no active intervention, TIPS (transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt), beta-blockers plus nitrates, portocaval shunt, sclerotherapy plus variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus nitrates plus variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation, sclerotherapy plus nitrates). Overall, 22.5% of the trial participants who received the reference treatment (chosen because this was the commonest treatment compared in the trials) of sclerotherapy died during the follow-up period ranging from two months to 61 months. There was considerable uncertainty in the effects of interventions on mortality. Accordingly, none of the interventions showed superiority over another. None of the trials reported health-related quality of life. Based on low-certainty evidence, variceal band ligation may result in fewer serious adverse events (number of people) than sclerotherapy (OR 0.19; 95% CrI 0.06 to 0.54; 1 trial; 100 participants). Based on low or very low-certainty evidence, the adverse events (number of participants) and adverse events (number of events) may be different across many comparisons; however, these differences are due to very small trials at high risk of bias showing large differences in some comparisons leading to many differences despite absence of direct evidence. Based on low-certainty evidence, TIPS may result in large decrease in symptomatic rebleed than variceal band ligation (HR 0.12; 95% CrI 0.03 to 0.41; 1 trial; 58 participants). Based on moderate-certainty evidence, any variceal rebleed was probably lower in sclerotherapy than in no active intervention (HR 0.62; 95% CrI 0.35 to 0.99, direct comparison HR 0.66; 95% CrI 0.11 to 3.13; 3 trials; 296 participants), beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy than sclerotherapy alone (HR 0.60; 95% CrI 0.37 to 0.95; direct comparison HR 0.50; 95% CrI 0.07 to 2.96; 4 trials; 231 participants); TIPS than sclerotherapy (HR 0.18; 95% CrI 0.08 to 0.38; direct comparison HR 0.22; 95% CrI 0.01 to 7.51; 2 trials; 109 participants), and in portocaval shunt than sclerotherapy (HR 0.21; 95% CrI 0.05 to 0.77; no direct comparison) groups. Based on low-certainty evidence, beta-blockers alone and TIPS might result in more, other compensation, events than sclerotherapy (rate ratio 2.37; 95% CrI 1.35 to 4.67; 1 trial; 65 participants and rate ratio 2.30; 95% CrI 1.20 to 4.65; 2 trials; 109 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions including those related to beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation in the remaining comparisons.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions on mortality. Variceal band ligation might result in fewer serious adverse events than sclerotherapy. TIPS might result in a large decrease in symptomatic rebleed than variceal band ligation. Sclerotherapy probably results in fewer 'any' variceal rebleeding than no active intervention. Beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy and TIPS probably result in fewer 'any' variceal rebleeding than sclerotherapy. Beta-blockers alone and TIPS might result in more other compensation events than sclerotherapy. The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions in the remaining comparisons. Accordingly, high-quality randomised comparative clinical trials are needed.

Somatostatin administration following pancreatoduodenectomy: a case-matched comparison according to surgical technique, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists' score and Fistula Risk Score

PURPOSE

This study evaluated the controversial role of somatostatin after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD), stratifying patients for the main risk factors using the most recent postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) classification and including only patients who had undergone PD with the same technique of pancreatojejunostomy.

METHODS

Between November 2010 and February 2020, 218 PD procedures were carried out via personal modified pancreatojejunostomy (mPJ-PD). Somatostatin was routinely administered between 2010 and 2016, while from 2017, 97 mPJ-PD procedures without somatostatin (WS) were performed. The WS group was retrospectively compared with a control (C) group obtained with one-to-one case-control matching according to the body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists' score, and Fistula Risk Score (FRS).

RESULTS

A total of 144 patients (72 WS group versus 72 C group) were compared. In the WS group. 6 patients (8.3%) developed clinically relevant POPF, compared with 8 patients (11.1%) in the C group (p = 0.656). In addition, on analyzing the subgroup of high-risk patients according to the FRS, we did not note any significant differences in POPF occurrence. Furthermore, no marked differences in the morbidity or mortality were found. Digestive bleeding and diabetes onset rates were higher in the WS group than in the control group, but not significantly so.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the present study confirm no benefit with the routine administration of somatostatin after PD to prevent POPF, even in high-risk patients. However, a possible role in the prevention of postoperative digestive bleeding and diabetes was observed.

Effect of octreotide on pancreatic fibrosis in rats with high-fat diet-induced obesity

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To explore the effect of octreotide on pancreatic fibrosis induced by high-fat diet (HFD) and its mechanism of action.

METHODS

Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were assigned to control, HFD, or octreotide treatment groups. Glucose and insulin tolerance tests (GTT and ITT), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and fasting insulin (FINS), serum and pancreatic lipid levels, were measured, and the Lee's index and the homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) index were calculated. The expression levels of alpha-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), desmin, connective tissue growth factor (CTGF), transforming growth factor beta1 (TGF-β1), Smad3, and Smad7 in the pancreas were quantified. The LTC-14 cell line, which has features of primary rat pancreatic stellate cells (PSCs), was used for in vitro studies.

RESULTS

The AUC of ipGTT and ipITT, and FPG, FINS, lipid levels, were elevated after HFD feeding; however, they decreased after octreotide administration. The expression of α-SMA, CTGF, TGF-β1, and Smad3 in the HFD group were increased relative to the control group, but Smad7 expression was decreased. After treatment with octreotide, α-SMA, CTGF, TGF-β1, and Smad3 expression decreased, whereas the expression of Smad7 increased. In vitro studies showed that the expression of CTGF, TGF-β1, and Smad3 increased with palmitate treatment (PA), which mimics HFD treatment; and octreotide treatment decreased the expression of these proteins. The α-SMA and Smad7 expression levels remained unchanged among the three groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Octreotide can ameliorate pancreatic fibrosis and improve pancreatic beta-cell function induced in HFD treated rats, possibly by inhibiting PSC activation and by decreasing pancreatic extracellular matrix (ECM) through the TGF-β1/Smad signaling pathway.

Gastrointestinal Issues in Liver Disease

Gastrointestinal (GI) complications of cirrhosis are frequent in patients who require intensive care support and are often the primary indication for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Perhaps the most worrisome GI complication for the intensivist is variceal hemorrhage. Bleeding from esophageal or gastric varices represents a life-threatening event for cirrhotic patients and provides management challenges for the ICU team. Nonvariceal GI bleeding, impaired GI motility, and malnutrition also provide significant challenges for the intensivist. This article reviews GI issues that present in critically ill cirrhotic patients and their management in the acute setting.

Role of self-expanding metal stents in the management of variceal haemorrhage: Hype or hope?

Despite the advances of medical, endoscopic and radiological therapy over recent years the mortality rates of acute variceal haemorrhage are still 16%-20% and the medium term outcome has not improved in the last 25 years. Early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt has proved to be an effective therapy for selected groups of patients with a high risk of re-bleeding and moderate liver disease. However, there is an unmet need for a therapy that can be applied in patients with a high risk of re-bleeding and advanced liver disease either as definitive therapy or as a bridge to permanent therapy. Self-expanding metal stents can be placed without the need for endoscopic or fluoroscopic control and, once in place, will provide effective haemostasis and allow a route for oral fluids and nutrition. They can remain in place whilst liver function recovers and secondary prophylaxis is initiated. We review the results of 6 case series including a total of 83 patients and the first randomised controlled trial of self-expanding metal stents vs balloon tamponade (BT) in the management of refractory variceal haemorrhage. We report that self-expanding metal stents provide effective haemostasis and perform better than BT in refractory bleeding, where they are associated with fewer complications. Whilst the most effective place for self-expanding metal stents in the management algorithm needs to be determined by further randomised controlled trials, currently they provide an effective alternative to BT in selected patients.

Pharmacological Treatment in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is a common medical emergency. Bleeding peptic ulcers account for the majority of causes in patients presenting with AUGIB, whereas variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients represents a more severe form of bleeding. Endoscopic therapy is the mainstay of treatment in patients with active bleeding, as it achieves hemostasis and improves patient outcomes. Pharmacotherapy is an important adjunct to endoscopic hemostasis. In the management of patients with bleeding peptic ulcers, acid suppression after endoscopic hemostasis reduces rates of further bleeding and interventions. In patients with stable hemodynamics awaiting endoscopy, acid suppression starts ulcer healing and downstages stigmata of bleeding, thereby reducing the need for endoscopic therapy. In managing patients with variceal bleeding, early administration of vasoactive drugs lowers splanchnic blood flow, promotes hemostasis, and makes subsequent endoscopic treatment easier. The use of vasoactive agents and antibiotics have both been shown to reduce mortality. In this review article, strategies of acid suppression therapy for peptic ulcer bleeds, vasoactive agents, and antibiotics for variceal bleeding, together with recent evidence on the use of tranexamic acid in gastrointestinal bleeding, are discussed.

Addition of Somatostatin After Successful Endoscopic Variceal Ligation Does not Prevent Early Rebleeding in Comparison to Placebo: A Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Efficacy of endoscopic sclerotherapy in controlling acute variceal bleeding is significantly improved when vasoactive drug is added. Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is superior to sclerotherapy. Whether efficacy of EVL will also improve with addition of somatostatin is not known. We compared EVL plus somatostatin versus EVL plus placebo in control of acute variceal bleeding.

METHODS

Consecutive cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding were enrolled. After emergency EVL, patients were randomized to receive either somatostatin (250 mcg/hr) or placebo infusion. Primary endpoint was treatment failure within 5 days. Treatment failure was defined as fresh hematemesis ≥2 h after start of therapy, or a 3 gm drop in Hb, or death.

RESULTS

61 patients were enrolled (EVL plus somatostatin group, n = 31 and EVL plus placebo group, n = 30). The baseline characteristics were similar. Within the initial 5-day period, the frequency of treatment failure was similar in both the groups (EVL plus somatostatin group 8/31 [26%] versus EVL plus placebo group 7/30 [23%]; P = 1.000). The mortality was also similar in the two groups (3/31 [10%] vs. 3/30 [10%]; P = 1.000). Baseline HVPG ≥19 mm Hg and active bleeding at index endoscopy were independent predictors of treatment failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of somatostatin infusion to EVL therapy does not offer any advantage in control of acute variceal bleeding or reducing mortality. The reason for this may be its failure to maintain sustained reduction in portal pressure for five days. Active bleeding at index endoscopy and high baseline HVPG should help choose early alternative treatment options. Trial registered with ClincalTrials.gov vide NCT01267669.

Octreotide attenuates liver fibrosis by inhibiting hepatic heme oxygenase-1 expression

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of octreotide treatment on hepatic heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) expression, together with the influence of altered hepatic HO-1 expression levels on hepatic function and fibrosis in bile duct-ligated rats. The rats were divided randomly into sham, cirrhotic, cobalt protoporphyrin and octreotide treatment groups. The expression levels of hepatic HO-1 mRNA were measured by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction, while the protein expression was determined by western blotting and immunohistochemical analysis. Hematoxylin and eosin, and Van Gieson's staining, along with determination of the hydroxyproline content in the liver, were performed to determine the degree of liver fibrosis. The serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBIL) and carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) in arterial blood, and the mean arterial pressure and portal vein pressure were also measured. As compared with the sham group, hepatic HO-1 mRNA and protein expression levels, serum levels of ALT, AST and TBIL, COHb in arterial blood, hydroxyproline and collagen type I content were all significantly increased in the cirrhotic group. As compared with the cirrhotic group, the octreotide-treated group exhibited significantly reduced hepatic HO-1 expression levels, serum levels of ALT, AST and TBIL, COHb in arterial blood and the extent of hepatic fibrosis, whereas the cobalt protoporphyrin group exhibited significantly increased hepatic HO-1 expression levels, as well as aggravated hepatic function and fibrosis (P<0.05). In conclusion, octreotide inhibited hepatic HO-1 overexpression in cirrhotic rats, reduced hepatic HO-1 expression levels to relieve liver injury and attenuated liver fibrosis.

Efficacy of vasopressin/terlipressin and somatostatin/octreotide for the prevention of early variceal rebleeding after the initial control of bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Our purpose was to conduct a meta-analysis to compare the effectiveness of vasopressin/terlipressin and somatostatin/octreotide on variceal re-bleeding within and after 5 days of initial control bleeding.

METHODS

A search was conducted of PubMed, the Cochrane database, and Google Scholar until June 31, 2014 using combinations of the search terms: esophageal varices, variceal re-bleeding, recurrent variceal hemorrhage, early re-bleeding, vasopressin, somatostatin, terlipressin, octreotide. Inclusion criteria were: (1) randomized controlled trials, (2) patients with esophageal or esophageal and gastric varices confirmed by endoscopy, (3) re-bleeding control was evaluated, (4) treatment with somatostatin/vasopressin. Outcome measures were the re-bleeding rates within 5 days (≤ 5 days) or after 5 days (>5 days) after initial treatment.

RESULTS

Six studies were included in the analysis. Five studies had complete data of re-bleeding rate within 5 days after initial treatment, and the combined odds ratio (OR) of 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51, 1.50] indicated that there was no difference in the re-bleeding rate between patients treated with vasopressin/terlipressin or somatostatin/octreotide. Two studies had complete data of the re-bleeding rate 5 days after initial treatment, and the combined OR of 1.12 (95% CI 0.64, 1.95) indicated there was no difference in the re-bleeding rate between patients who were treated with vasopressin/terlipressin or somatostatin/octreotide.

CONCLUSION

There is no difference between vasopressin/terlipressin and somatostatin/octreotide in prevention of re-bleeding after the initial treatment of bleeding esophageal varices.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: patient presentation, risk stratification, and early management

The established quality indicators for early management of upper gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage are based on rapid diagnosis, risk stratification, and early management. Effective preendoscopic treatment may improve survivability of critically ill patients and improve resource allocation for all patients. Accurate risk stratification helps determine the need for hospital admission, hemodynamic monitoring, blood transfusion, and endoscopic hemostasis before esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) via indirect measures such as laboratory studies, physiologic data, and comorbidities. Early management before the definitive EGD is essential to improving outcomes for patients with upper GI bleeding.

Endoscopic hemostasis in acute esophageal variceal bleeding

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a milestone event for patients with portal hypertension. Esophageal varices bleed because of an increase in portal pressure that causes the variceal wall to rupture. AVB in a patient with cirrhosis and portal hypertension is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The initial management of these patients includes proper resuscitation, antibiotic prophylaxis, pharmacologic therapy with vasoconstrictors, and endoscopic therapy. Intravascular fluid management, timing of endoscopy, and endoscopic technique are key in managing these patients. This article reviews the current endoscopic hemostatic strategies for patients with AVB.

Endoscopic band ligation and esophageal stents for acute variceal bleeding

Patients with portal hypertension and esophageal varices are at risk of bleeding due to a progressive increase in portal pressure that may rupture the variceal wall. Appropriate treatment with initial general measures, such as resuscitation, a restrictive transfusion policy, antibiotic prophylaxis, pharmacologic therapy with vasoconstrictors, and endoscopic therapy with endoscopic band ligation are mandatory. However, 10% to 15% of patients fail initial endoscopic therapy and thus rescue therapies are needed. This article reviews the current endoscopic strategies with band ligation and esophageal stents for patients with acute variceal bleeding.

Percutaneous Portosystemic Shunts: TIPS and Beyond

Percutaneous interventions for portal hypertension have been available since the 1990s. Over time, improved technology-including covered stent grafts-and clinical understanding has expanded the available procedures for percutaneous portal decompression. While transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation is the most commonly cited percutaneous intervention, direct intrahepatic portocaval shunt and percutaneous mesocaval shunt creation are important alternatives with specific advantages and applications. This article reviews contemporary, minimally invasive interventional approaches to percutaneous portosystemic shunt creation in terms of procedure rationale, patient selection, interventional technique, and technical outcomes.

Management of variceal and nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis

Acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage remains the most common medical emergency managed by gastroenterologists. Causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients with liver cirrhosis can be grouped into two categories: the first includes lesions that arise by virtue of portal hypertension, namely gastroesophageal varices and portal hypertensive gastropathy; and the second includes lesions seen in the general population (peptic ulcer, erosive gastritis, reflux esophagitis, Mallory-Weiss syndrome, tumors, etc.). Emergency upper gastrointestinal endoscopy is the standard procedure recommended for both diagnosis and treatment of UGIB. The endoscopic treatment of choice for esophageal variceal bleeding is band ligation of varices. Bleeding from gastric varices is treated by injection with cyanoacrylate. Treatment with vasoactive drugs as well as antibiotic treatment is started before or at the same time as endoscopy. Bleeding from portal hypertensive gastropathy is less frequent, usually chronic and treatment options include β-blocker therapy, injection therapy and interventional radiology. The standard of care of UGIB in patients with cirrhosis includes careful resuscitation, preferably in an intensive care setting, medical and endoscopic therapy, early consideration for placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and, sometimes, surgical therapy or hepatic transplant.

Management by the intensivist of gastrointestinal bleeding in adults and children

Intensivists are regularly confronted with the question of gastrointestinal bleeding. To date, the latest international recommendations regarding prevention and treatment for gastrointestinal bleeding lack a specific approach to the critically ill patients. We present recommendations for management by the intensivist of gastrointestinal bleeding in adults and children, developed with the GRADE system by an experts group of the French-Language Society of Intensive Care (Société de Réanimation de Langue Française (SRLF), with the participation of the French Language Group of Paediatric Intensive Care and Emergencies (GFRUP), the French Society of Emergency Medicine (SFMU), the French Society of Gastroenterology (SNFGE), and the French Society of Digestive Endoscopy (SFED). The recommendations cover five fields of application: management of gastrointestinal bleeding before endoscopic diagnosis, treatment of upper gastrointestinal bleeding unrelated to portal hypertension, treatment of upper gastrointestinal bleeding related to portal hypertension, management of presumed lower gastrointestinal bleeding, and prevention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in intensive care.

Systematic review of noncancer presentations with a median survival of 6 months or less

PURPOSE

We report on clinical indicators of 6-month mortality in advanced noncancer illnesses and the effect of treatment on survival.

METHODS

The MEDLINE database was searched comprehensively to find studies evaluating survival for common advanced noncancer illnesses. We retrieved and evaluated studies that reported a median survival of ≤1 year and evaluated prognostic factors or effect of treatment on survival. We extracted data on presentations with median survivals of ≤6 months for heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, geriatric failure to thrive, cirrhosis, and end-stage renal failure. Independent risk factors for survival were combined and included if their combination was associated with a 6-month mortality of ≥50%.

RESULTS

The search identified 1000 potentially relevant studies, of which 475 were retrieved and evaluated, and 74 were included. We report the common clinical presentations that are consistently associated with a 6-month median survival. Even though advanced noncancer syndromes differ clinically, a universal set of prognostic factors signals progression to terminal disease, including poor performance status, advanced age, malnutrition, comorbid illness, organ dysfunction, and hospitalization for acute decompensation. Generally, a 6-month median survival is associated with the presence of 2-4 of these factors. With few exceptions, these terminal presentations are quite refractory to treatment.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review summarizes prognostic factors common to advanced noncancer illness. There is little evidence at present that treatment prolongs survival at these terminal stages.

Management of acute variceal bleeding: emphasis on endoscopic therapy

Acute variceal bleeding is one of the most serious and feared complications of patients with portal hypertension. The most common cause of portal hypertension is advanced liver disease. Patients with esophageal and gastric varices may bleed because of a progressive increase in portal pressure that causes them to grow and finally rupture. This article will review the current management strategies for acute variceal bleeding with emphasis on endoscopic therapy for the acute episode.

Emergency sclerotherapy versus vasoactive drugs for bleeding oesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Emergency sclerotherapy is still widely used as a first line therapy for variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis, particularly when banding ligation is not available or feasible. However, pharmacological treatment may stop bleeding in the majority of these patients.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of emergency sclerotherapy versus vasoactive drugs for variceal bleeding in cirrhosis.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Search of trials was based on The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index Expanded through January 2010.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials comparing sclerotherapy with vasoactive drugs (vasopressin (with or without nitroglycerin), terlipressin, somatostatin, or octreotide) for acute variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Outcome measures were failure to control bleeding, five-day treatment failure, rebleeding, mortality, number of blood transfusions, and adverse events. Data were analysed by a random-effects model according to the vasoactive treatment. Sensitivity analyses included combined analysis of all the trials irrespective of the vasoactive drug, type of publication, and risk of bias.

MAIN RESULTS

Seventeen trials including 1817 patients were identified. Vasoactive drugs were vasopressin (one trial), terlipressin (one trial), somatostatin (five trials), and octreotide (ten trials). No significant differences were found comparing sclerotherapy with each vasoactive drug for any outcome. Combining all the trials irrespective of the vasoactive drug, the risk differences (95% confidence intervals) were failure to control bleeding -0.02 (-0.06 to 0.02), five-day failure rate -0.05 (-0.10 to 0.01), rebleeding 0.01 (-0.03 to 0.05), mortality (17 randomised trials, 1817 patients) -0.02 (-0.06 to 0.02), and transfused blood units (8 randomised trials, 849 patients) (weighted mean difference) -0.24 (-0.54 to 0.07). Adverse events 0.08 (0.03 to 0.14) and serious adverse events 0.05 (0.02 to 0.08) were significantly more frequent with sclerotherapy.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found no convincing evidence to support the use of emergency sclerotherapy for variceal bleeding in cirrhosis as the first, single treatment when compared with vasoactive drugs. Vasoactive drugs may be safe and effective whenever endoscopic therapy is not promptly available and seems to be associated with less adverse events than emergency sclerotherapy. Other meta-analyses and guidelines advocate that combined vasoactive drugs and endoscopic therapy is superior to either intervention alone.

The recent reduction in mortality from bleeding oesophageal varices is primarily observed from Days 1 to 5

BACKGROUND

Several new treatments of bleeding oesophageal varices (BOV) have been introduced during the last 25 years; among these are vasoactive drugs, improved endoscopic techniques and prophylactic antibiotics.

AIMS

The aim was to compare clinical outcomes based on Baveno IV criteria in two patient-cohorts (1983-1987, n=56 and 2000-2007, n=111) with respect to control of bleeding, rebleeding and mortality after a first episode of BOV. Further, we wanted to assess whether an eventual reduction in bleeding-related mortality occurred within the first 5 days or between Days 6 and 42 after the bleeding episode.

METHODS

Data from medical records were collected, according to the Baveno IV criteria, on key events: type of treatment, failure to control bleeding, failure to prevent rebleeding, 5-day and 6-week mortality.

RESULTS

Six-week mortality decreased from 30.4 to 17.1% [odds ratio (OR) 0.44; 0.21-0.95] with a reduction in 5-day mortality from 17.9 to 6.3% (OR 0.31; 0.11-0.86). A non-significant reduction was seen in the 5-day failure rate to control bleeding from 35.7 to 26.1%. Mortality and failure to prevent rebleeding Days 6-42 decreased from 15.2 to 11.5% (NS) and 22.2 to 10.7% (NS) respectively. Mean length of hospital stay decreased from 14.6 +/- 12.5 to 9.1 +/- 9.0 days (P<0.01) and mean number of cumulated blood transfusions within the first 5 days decreased from 5.0 +/- 4.8 to 3.6 +/- 3.9 (P=0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective study on individual patient records, we observed a decrease in mortality from BOV over the last 20 years, which seems mainly owing to a reduction in 5-day mortality; mortality at Days 6-42 remained unaffected.

Modelling Factors Causing Mortality in Oesophageal VaricesPatients in King Abdul Aziz University Hospital

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to reach a model defining factors precipitating short survival in patients with oesophageal varices and improving the understanding of such factors. Models would help to prioritize the clinical goals and intervention for saving the lives of patients.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of all patients admitted to King Abdul Aziz University Hospital who had been diagnosed with oesophageal varices. The patients' demographics, disease history, physical examination, viral infections, parasitic infections, blood pictures, cancer biomarkers, liver enzymes and bleeding details were collected, tested for correlation with mortality to formulate a model.

RESULTS

A total of 148 patients were included in this study. 37 clinical variables were studied only 15 factors were found to have a statistical significance. These factors were PT (RC=0.17338 P-value 0.00011), APTT (RC=0.07916, P-value 0.00002), haemoglobin level (RC=-0.44748, P-value <0.0001), WBC (RC = 0.22255, P-value 0.00001), serum albumin level (RC=-0.12953, P-value 0.00001), serum creatinine (RC=0.01483, P-value 0.00002), at least one incidence of encephalopathy (RC=1.80500, P-value 0.00014), total bilirubin (RC=0.01371, P-value 0.00016), direct bilirubin (RC=0.01298, P-value 0.00357, serum AST (RC=0.00914, P-value 0.00462), presence of at least bleeding event (RC=1.03373, P-value 0.00613), ascites grade I (RC=-1.57435, P-value 0.00967), SBP (RC=1.47216, P-value 0.01581), platelets count (RC=0.00398, P-value 0.03476) and oesophageal varices (RC = -1.42139, P-value 0.03673). Only 5 factors were likely to affect the mortality status. These factors were encephalopathy, spontaneous SBP, bleeding, ascites and grade of oesophageal varices. Six models were then formulated.

CONCLUSION

These models should be retested in larger study groups to test their reliability in order to use them as surrogate end point in future clinical studies.