Interim PET-results for prognosis in adults with Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies

Prognostic Value of Radiomic Analysis Using Pre- and Post-Treatment 18F-FDG-PET/CT in Patients with Laryngeal Cancer and Hypopharyngeal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of conducting 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging has yielded different results in patients with laryngeal cancer and hypopharyngeal cancer, but these results are controversial, and there is a lack of dedicated studies on each type of cancer. This study aimed to evaluate whether combining radiomic analysis of pre- and post-treatment 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging features and clinical parameters has additional prognostic value in patients with laryngeal cancer and hypopharyngeal cancer.

METHODS

From 2008 to 2016, data on patients diagnosed with cancer of the larynx and hypopharynx were retrospectively collected. The patients underwent pre- and post-treatment 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging. The values of ΔPre-Post PET were measured from the texture features. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression was used to select the most predictive features to formulate a Rad-score for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and Cox regression were employed to assess PFS and OS. Then, the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram.

RESULTS

Study data were collected for a total of 91 patients. The mean follow-up period was 71.5 mo. (8.4-147.3). The Rad-score was formulated based on the texture parameters and was significantly associated with both PFS (p = 0.024) and OS (p = 0.009). When predicting PFS, only the Rad-score demonstrated a significant association (HR 2.1509, 95% CI [1.100-4.207], p = 0.025). On the other hand, age (HR 1.116, 95% CI [1.041-1.197], p = 0.002) and Rad-score (HR 33.885, 95% CI [2.891-397.175], p = 0.005) exhibited associations with OS. The Rad-score value showed good discrimination when it was combined with clinical parameters in both PFS (C-index 0.802-0.889) and OS (C-index 0.860-0.958). The calibration plots also showed a good agreement between the observed and predicted survival probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining clinical parameters with radiomics analysis of pre- and post-treatment 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters in patients with laryngeal cancer and hypopharyngeal cancer might have additional prognostic value.

Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal

BACKGROUND

Multivariable prediction models are used in oral health care to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of caries increment. The outcomes of the models should help to manage individualized interventions and to determine the periodicity of service. The objective was to review and critically appraise studies of multivariable prediction models of caries increment.

METHODS

Longitudinal studies that developed or validated prediction models of caries and expressed caries increment as a function of at least three predictors were included. PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science supplemented with reference lists of included studies were searched. Two reviewers independently extracted data using CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) and assessed risk of bias and concern regarding applicability using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASessment Tool). Predictors were analysed and model performance was recalculated as estimated positive (LR +) and negative likelihood ratios (LR -) based on sensitivity and specificity presented in the studies included.

RESULTS

Among the 765 reports identified, 21 studies providing 66 prediction models fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Over 150 candidate predictors were considered, and 31 predictors remained in studies of final developmental models: caries experience, mutans streptococci in saliva, fluoride supplements, and visible dental plaque being the most common predictors. Predictive performances varied, providing LR + and LR - ranges of 0.78-10.3 and 0.0-1.1, respectively. Only four models of coronal caries and one root caries model scored LR + values of at least 5. All studies were assessed as having high risk of bias, generally due to insufficient number of outcomes in relation to candidate predictors and considerable uncertainty regarding predictor thresholds and measurements. Concern regarding applicability was low overall.

CONCLUSIONS

The review calls attention to several methodological deficiencies and the significant heterogeneity observed across the studies ruled out meta-analyses. Flawed or distorted study estimates lead to uncertainty about the prediction, which limits the models' usefulness in clinical decision-making. The modest performance of most models implies that alternative predictors should be considered, such as bacteria with acid tolerant properties.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD#152,467 April 28, 2020.

Prognostic value of interim 18F-FDG PET/CT in adult follicular lymphoma treated with R-CHOP

PURPOSE

The prognostic value of interim ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT (I-PET) for follicular lymphoma (FL) is controversial, and may be related to the lack of strict standards in terms of age, chemotherapy regimen, and evaluation criteria in previous studies. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of I-PET in adult FL patients treated with R-CHOP.

METHODS

I-PET was performed in 30 adult FL patients after treatment with 3-5 cycles of R-CHOP. PET/CT images were assessed using the Deauville 5-point scale (D-5PS) criteria. Baseline PET/CT (B-PET) was performed in 24 of the patients with FL before treatment. The PET/CT image parameters, such as the SUVmax, TLG, and tMTV, were recorded. The prognostic values of sex, age, grade, Ann Arbor stage, LDH level, and I-PET were evaluated.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression showed that sex, age, grade, Ann Arbor stage, LDH, and I-PET using the D-5PS criteria could not predict the PFS of adult patients with FL treated with R-CHOP (P>0.05). ROC curve analysis evaluated the predictive values of SUVmax, TLG, and tMTV in B-PET and I-PET and showed that none of them was predictive of PFS in adult FL patients (P>0.05). However, the variation in SUVmax (∆SUVmax) was predictive of PFS in adult FL patients (AUC=0.83, P=0.040), and the cutoff threshold was 4.85.

CONCLUSIONS

I-PET using the D-5PS criteria cannot predict the PFS of adult FL patients treated with R-CHOP. However, the ∆SUVmax between B-PET and I-PET is applicable for the prognosis of adult patients with FL.

Impact of residual disease as a prognostic factor for survival in women with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer after primary surgery

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is the seventh most common cancer among women and a leading cause of death from gynaecological malignancies. Epithelial ovarian cancer is the most common type, accounting for around 90% of all ovarian cancers. This specific type of ovarian cancer starts in the surface layer covering the ovary or lining of the fallopian tube. Surgery is performed either before chemotherapy (upfront or primary debulking surgery (PDS)) or in the middle of a course of treatment with chemotherapy (neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and interval debulking surgery (IDS)), with the aim of removing all visible tumour and achieving no macroscopic residual disease (NMRD). The aim of this review is to investigate the prognostic impact of size of residual disease nodules (RD) in women who received upfront or interval cytoreductive surgery for advanced (stage III and IV) epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prognostic impact of residual disease after primary surgery on survival outcomes for advanced (stage III and IV) epithelial ovarian cancer. In separate analyses, primary surgery included both upfront primary debulking surgery (PDS) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). Each residual disease threshold is considered as a separate prognostic factor.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL (2021, Issue 8), MEDLINE via Ovid (to 30 August 2021) and Embase via Ovid (to 30 August 2021).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included survival data from studies of at least 100 women with advanced EOC after primary surgery. Residual disease was assessed as a prognostic factor in multivariate prognostic models. We excluded studies that reported fewer than 100 women, women with concurrent malignancies or studies that only reported unadjusted results. Women were included into two distinct groups: those who received PDS followed by platinum-based chemotherapy and those who received IDS, analysed separately. We included studies that reported all RD thresholds after surgery, but the main thresholds of interest were microscopic RD (labelled NMRD), RD 0.1 cm to 1 cm (small-volume residual disease (SVRD)) and RD > 1 cm (large-volume residual disease (LVRD)).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently abstracted data and assessed risk of bias. Where possible, we synthesised the data in meta-analysis. To assess the adequacy of adjustment factors used in multivariate Cox models, we used the 'adjustment for other prognostic factors' and 'statistical analysis and reporting' domains of the quality in prognosis studies (QUIPS) tool. We also made judgements about the certainty of the evidence for each outcome in the main comparisons, using GRADE. We examined differences between FIGO stages III and IV for different thresholds of RD after primary surgery. We considered factors such as age, grade, length of follow-up, type and experience of surgeon, and type of surgery in the interpretation of any heterogeneity. We also performed sensitivity analyses that distinguished between studies that included NMRD in RD categories of < 1 cm and those that did not. This was applicable to comparisons involving RD < 1 cm with the exception of RD < 1 cm versus NMRD. We evaluated women undergoing PDS and IDS in separate analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We found 46 studies reporting multivariate prognostic analyses, including RD as a prognostic factor, which met our inclusion criteria: 22,376 women who underwent PDS and 3697 who underwent IDS, all with varying levels of RD. While we identified a range of different RD thresholds, we mainly report on comparisons that are the focus of a key area of clinical uncertainty (involving NMRD, SVRD and LVRD). The comparison involving any visible disease (RD > 0 cm) and NMRD was also important. SVRD versus NMRD in a PDS setting In PDS studies, most showed an increased risk of death in all RD groups when those with macroscopic RD (MRD) were compared to NMRD. Women who had SVRD after PDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80 to 2.29; I2 = 50%; 17 studies; 9404 participants; moderate-certainty). The analysis of progression-free survival found that women who had SVRD after PDS had nearly twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.63 to 2.16; I2 = 63%; 10 studies; 6596 participants; moderate-certainty). LVRD versus SVRD in a PDS setting When we compared LVRD versus SVRD following surgery, the estimates were attenuated compared to NMRD comparisons. All analyses showed an overall survival benefit in women who had RD < 1 cm after surgery (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.32; I2 = 0%; 5 studies; 6000 participants; moderate-certainty). The results were robust to analyses of progression-free survival. SVRD and LVRD versus NMRD in an IDS setting The one study that defined the categories as NMRD, SVRD and LVRD showed that women who had SVRD and LVRD after IDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women who had NMRD (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.66; 310 participants; I2 = 56%, and HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.49 to 3.34; 343 participants; I2 = 35%; very low-certainty, for SVRD versus NMRD and LVRD versus NMRD, respectively). LVRD versus SVRD + NMRD in an IDS setting Meta-analysis found that women who had LVRD had a greater risk of death and disease progression compared to women who had either SVRD or NMRD (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.11; 6 studies; 1572 participants; I2 = 58% for overall survival and HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.52; 1145 participants; I2 = 60% for progression-free survival; very low-certainty). However, this result is biased as in all but one study it was not possible to distinguish NMRD within the < 1 cm thresholds. Only one study separated NMRD from SVRD; all others included NMRD in the SVRD group, which may create bias when comparing with LVRD, making interpretation challenging. MRD versus NMRD in an IDS setting Women who had any amount of MRD after IDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.29, I2 = 81%; 906 participants; very low-certainty).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In a PDS setting, there is moderate-certainty evidence that the amount of RD after primary surgery is a prognostic factor for overall and progression-free survival in women with advanced ovarian cancer. We separated our analysis into three distinct categories for the survival outcome including NMRD, SVRD and LVRD. After IDS, there may be only two categories required, although this is based on very low-certainty evidence, as all but one study included NMRD in the SVRD category. The one study that separated NMRD from SVRD showed no improved survival outcome in the SVRD category, compared to LVRD. Further low-certainty evidence also supported restricting to two categories, where women who had any amount of MRD after IDS had a significantly greater risk of death compared to women with NMRD. Therefore, the evidence presented in this review cannot conclude that using three categories applies in an IDS setting (very low-certainty evidence), as was supported for PDS (which has convincing moderate-certainty evidence).

A new prognostic model including platelet/lymphocyte ratio and International Prognostic Score 3 for freedom from progression in patients with previously untreated advanced classical Hodgkin lymphoma

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a new risk stratification tool to predict freedom from progression (FFP) for newly diagnosed advanced classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL).

METHODS

We collected data from 386 patients with advanced cHL diagnosed between December 8, 2000 and October 29, 2018, and treated with curative intent with ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine) or an ABVD-equivalent regimen. Cases were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The new model was constructed based on the results of Cox proportional hazards model in the training cohort. Comparisons of discrimination between the new model and other models in the training and validation cohorts for FFP prediction were measured by time-dependent area under curve (tAUC) and Harrell's C-index. Calibration plots were constructed to compare the consistency between the predicted and observed estimates of survival probability for the new model in the training and validation cohorts.

RESULTS

The new model (IPSPLR) composed of International Prognostic Score (IPS)-3 and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) provided four distinct risk groups. The IPSPLR showed better discriminative ability when compared with IPS-3 and IPS-7. The AUC of IPSPLR was consistently higher than that of IPS-3 and IPS-7 between 12 and 120 months. The C-index of the IPSPLR was higher than that of IPS-7 and IPS-3. The calibration plots showed an excellent agreement between the IPSPLR-predicted and observed estimates of 5-year FFP.

CONCLUSION

The IPSPLR is an easily used tool for FFP prediction for newly diagnosed advanced cHL. Validation of this tool in other large datasets is needed.

Outcome-based multiobjective optimization of lymphoma radiation therapy plans

At its core, radiation therapy (RT) requires balancing therapeutic effects against risk of adverse events in cancer survivors. The radiation oncologist weighs numerous disease and patient-level factors when considering the expected risk-benefit ratio of combined treatment modalities. As part of this, RT plan optimization software is used to find a clinically acceptable RT plan delivering a prescribed dose to the target volume while respecting pre-defined radiation dose-volume constraints for selected organs at risk. The obvious limitation to the current approach is that it is virtually impossible to ensure the selected treatment plan could not be bettered by an alternative plan providing improved disease control and/or reduced risk of adverse events in this individual. Outcome-based optimization refers to a strategy where all planning objectives are defined by modeled estimates of a specific outcome's probability. Noting that various adverse events and disease control are generally incommensurable, leads to the concept of a Pareto-optimal plan: a plan where no single objective can be improved without degrading one or more of the remaining objectives. Further benefits of outcome-based multiobjective optimization are that quantitative estimates of risks and benefit are obtained as are the effects of choosing a different trade-off between competing objectives. Furthermore, patient-level risk factors and combined treatment modalities may be integrated directly into plan optimization. Here, we present this approach in the clinical setting of multimodality therapy for malignant lymphoma, a malignancy with marked heterogeneity in biology, target localization, and patient characteristics. We discuss future research priorities including the potential of artificial intelligence.

Sex as a prognostic factor for mortality in critically ill adults with sepsis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the role of sex as an independent prognostic factor for mortality in patients with sepsis admitted to intensive care units (ICUs).

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO Clinical Trials Registry from inception to 17 July 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies evaluating independent associations between sex and mortality in critically ill adults with sepsis controlling for at least one of five core covariate domains prespecified following a literature search and consensus among experts.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two authors independently extracted and assessed the risk of bias using Quality In Prognosis Studies tool. Meta-analysis was performed by pooling adjusted estimates. The Grades of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to rate the certainty of evidence.

RESULTS

From 14 304 records, 13 studies (80 520 participants) were included. Meta-analysis did not find sex-based differences in all-cause hospital mortality (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.32; very low-certainty evidence) and all-cause ICU mortality (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.78; very low-certainty evidence). However, females presented higher 28-day all-cause mortality (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.32; very low-certainty evidence) and lower 1-year all-cause mortality (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.98; low-certainty evidence). There was a moderate risk of bias in the domain adjustment for other prognostic factors in six studies, and the certainty of evidence was further affected by inconsistency and imprecision.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic independent effect of sex on all-cause hospital mortality, 28-day all-cause mortality and all-cause ICU mortality for critically ill adults with sepsis was uncertain. Female sex may be associated with decreased 1-year all-cause mortality.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019145054.

Prognostic importance of coincidental coronary artery calcification on FDG-PET/CT oncology studies

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) on body CT imaging is considered a coincidental finding in cancer patients. In order to determine the significance of CAC in cancer patients we evaluated the prognostic utility of CAC detected on oncology FDG-PET/CT studies. A retrospective study was performed of consecutive FDG-PET/CT studies from January to March 2011. CAC was identified on the CT portion of FDG/PET-CT studies. Chart review documented statin use, the Framingham risk score (FRS) (includes age, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia and smoking), the primary malignancy and metastases. The primary end point was a composite of death and cardiovascular (CV) events (non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG)). 266 patients had a median follow up of 41 months (95% CI 31-56 months). CAC was noted in 140 patients. Based on CAC, potentially 84 patients would have had a change in statin prescribing (p < 0.01). CAC was associated with the primary end point on univariable and multivariable analysis (OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.42-4.77) (p < 0.01). On univariable Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, CAC was associated with decreased survival only in the absence of metastases (p < 0.01). Cox proportional hazard modelling demonstrated CAC was associated with mortality and cardiac events in patients without metastases, whereas FRS was not (For CAC: HR 1.69 (95% CI 1.22-2.35), p = 0.002). CAC is commonly detected with oncology FDG-PET/CT. In cancer patients CAC was associated with an increased risk of clinical events. CAC reduced survival free time in patients without metastases. CAC might therefore be considered more than a coincidentaloma in patients without metastases.

Interim PET-results for prognosis in adults with Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies

BACKGROUND

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is one of the most common haematological malignancies in young adults and, with cure rates of 90%, has become curable for the majority of individuals. Positron emission tomography (PET) is an imaging tool used to monitor a tumour's metabolic activity, stage and progression. Interim PET during chemotherapy has been posited as a prognostic factor in individuals with HL to distinguish between those with a poor prognosis and those with a better prognosis. This distinction is important to inform decision-making on the clinical pathway of individuals with HL.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether in previously untreated adults with HL receiving first-line therapy, interim PET scan results can distinguish between those with a poor prognosis and those with a better prognosis, and thereby predict survival outcomes in each group.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL and conference proceedings up until April 2019. We also searched one trial registry (ClinicalTrials.gov).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included retrospective and prospective studies evaluating interim PET scans in a minimum of 10 individuals with HL (all stages) undergoing first-line therapy. Interim PET was defined as conducted during therapy (after one, two, three or four treatment cycles). The minimum follow-up period was at least 12 months. We excluded studies if the trial design allowed treatment modification based on the interim PET scan results.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form according to the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Two teams of two review authors independently screened the studies, extracted data on overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and PET-associated adverse events (AEs), assessed risk of bias (per outcome) according to the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and assessed the certainty of the evidence (GRADE). We contacted investigators to obtain missing information and data.

MAIN RESULTS

Our literature search yielded 11,277 results. In total, we included 23 studies (99 references) with 7335 newly-diagnosed individuals with classic HL (all stages). Participants in 16 studies underwent (interim) PET combined with computed tomography (PET-CT), compared to PET only in the remaining seven studies. The standard chemotherapy regimen included ABVD (16) studies, compared to BEACOPP or other regimens (seven studies). Most studies (N = 21) conducted interim PET scans after two cycles (PET2) of chemotherapy, although PET1, PET3 and PET4 were also reported in some studies. In the meta-analyses, we used PET2 data if available as we wanted to ensure homogeneity between studies. In most studies interim PET scan results were evaluated according to the Deauville 5-point scale (N = 12). Eight studies were not included in meta-analyses due to missing information and/or data; results were reported narratively. For the remaining studies, we pooled the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR). The timing of the outcome measurement was after two or three years (the median follow-up time ranged from 22 to 65 months) in the pooled studies. Eight studies explored the independent prognostic ability of interim PET by adjusting for other established prognostic factors (e.g. disease stage, B symptoms). We did not pool the results because the multivariable analyses adjusted for a different set of factors in each study. Overall survival Twelve (out of 23) studies reported OS. Six of these were assessed as low risk of bias in all of the first four domains of QUIPS (study participation, study attrition, prognostic factor measurement and outcome measurement). The other six studies were assessed as unclear, moderate or high risk of bias in at least one of these four domains. Four studies were assessed as low risk, and eight studies as high risk of bias for the domain other prognostic factors (covariates). Nine studies were assessed as low risk, and three studies as high risk of bias for the domain 'statistical analysis and reporting'. We pooled nine studies with 1802 participants. Participants with HL who have a negative interim PET scan result probably have a large advantage in OS compared to those with a positive interim PET scan result (unadjusted HR 5.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.64 to 9.81, I² = 44%, moderate-certainty evidence). In absolute values, this means that 900 out of 1000 participants with a negative interim PET scan result will probably survive longer than three years compared to 585 (95% CI 356 to 757) out of 1000 participants with a positive result. Adjusted results from two studies also indicate an independent prognostic value of interim PET scan results (moderate-certainty evidence). Progression-free survival Twenty-one studies reported PFS. Eleven out of 21 were assessed as low risk of bias in the first four domains. The remaining were assessed as unclear, moderate or high risk of bias in at least one of the four domains. Eleven studies were assessed as low risk, and ten studies as high risk of bias for the domain other prognostic factors (covariates). Eight studies were assessed as high risk, thirteen as low risk of bias for statistical analysis and reporting. We pooled 14 studies with 2079 participants. Participants who have a negative interim PET scan result may have an advantage in PFS compared to those with a positive interim PET scan result, but the evidence is very uncertain (unadjusted HR 4.90, 95% CI 3.47 to 6.90, I² = 45%, very low-certainty evidence). This means that 850 out of 1000 participants with a negative interim PET scan result may be progression-free longer than three years compared to 451 (95% CI 326 to 569) out of 1000 participants with a positive result. Adjusted results (not pooled) from eight studies also indicate that there may be an independent prognostic value of interim PET scan results (low-certainty evidence). PET-associated adverse events No study measured PET-associated AEs.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review provides moderate-certainty evidence that interim PET scan results predict OS, and very low-certainty evidence that interim PET scan results predict progression-free survival in treated individuals with HL. This evidence is primarily based on unadjusted data. More studies are needed to test the adjusted prognostic ability of interim PET against established prognostic factors.