Information cost, amount of payoff, and level of aspiration as determinants of information seeking in decision making

Toward a unified model of human information behavior: an equilibrium perspective

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to build a unified model of human information behavior (HIB) for integrating classical constructs and reformulating the structure of HIB theory.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper employs equilibrium perspective from partial equilibrium theory to conceptualization and deduction, starting from four basic assumptions.

Findings

This paper develops two models to incorporate previous HIB research approaches into an equilibrium-analysis-oriented information supply-demand (ISD) framework: first, the immediate-task/problem-based and everyday life information-seeking (ELIS)-sense-making approaches are incorporated into the short-term ISD model; second, the knowledge-construction-oriented and ability-based HIB research approaches are elaborated by the long-term ISD model. Relations among HIB theories are illustrated via the method of graphical reasoning. Moreover, these two models jointly reveal the connection between information seeking in immediate problematic situations and long-term ability improvement.

Originality/value

The equilibrium framework enables future research to explore HIB from three perspectives: stages: group the classical concepts (e.g. anomalous state of knowledge, uncertainty) into different stages (i.e. start state, process, goal state) and see how they interact with each other within and across different stages; forces: explore information behaviors and information-related abilities as information supply and demand forces, and see how different forces influence each other and jointly motivate people to pursue the equilibriums between outside world and mental model; and short term and long term: study the connections between short-term information seeking and long-term ability improvement at both theoretical and empirical levels.

Effects of Problem Uncertainty and Prior Arousal on Pre-Decisional Information Search

Fifty-four undergraduate Ss at the University of Delaware were presented sequentially 10 decision problems. Prior to making a decision on a problem, S had the option of receiving up to five additional information items. Independent variables were the initial uncertainty of the decision problem and prior “emotional” arousal. Dependent measures were the number of information items taken, the utilization of time resources, and S's arousal level (GSR). Neither independent variable affected the amount of information acquisition prior to decision, but differences in problem uncertainty within the high uncertainty conditions were negatively related to information search ( r = -.706). Decision time increased linearly with problem uncertainty and decreased across sequential problems. In general, decision-making became more facile with increasing experience.

Choice Conflict and Subjective Uncertainty in Decision Making

Subjective uncertainty and information search behavior were examined as a function of response uncertainty ( H), estimated from the number and relative likelihood of responses elicited by tachistoscopically presented pictures. Both subjective uncertainty and search increased with H and S's information search correlated positively with reports of subjective uncertainty. The data suggest that: (a) subjective uncertainty (S.U.) and search behavior are related to uncertainty based on the number and relative strength of the responses elicited by a choice situation; magnitude estimates of S.U. and search increased with H, the weighted uncertainty of the individual competing choice tendencies; and (b) subjective uncertainty mediates predecisional information search behavior; the greater the magnitude of S.U. elicited by a problem, the more S searches.

Sequential evidence accumulation in decision making: The individual desired level of confidence can explain the extent of information acquisition

Judgments and decisions under uncertainty are frequently linked to a prior sequential search for relevant information. In such cases, the subject has to decide when to stop the search for information. Evidence accumulation models from social and cognitive psychology assume an active and sequential information search until enough evidence has been accumulated to pass a decision threshold. In line with such theories, we conceptualize the evidence threshold as the “desired level of confidence” (DLC) of a person. This model is tested against a fixed stopping rule (one-reason decision making) and against the class of multi-attribute information integrating models. A series of experiments using an information board for horse race betting demonstrates an advantage of the proposed model by measuring the individual DLC of each subject and confirming its correctness in two separate stages. In addition to a better understanding of the stopping rule (within the narrow framework of simple heuristics), the results indicate that individual aspiration levels might be a relevant factor when modelling decision making by task analysis of statistical environments.

Collecting information: optimizing outcomes, screening options, or facilitating discrimination?

Collection of information prior to a decision may be integrated into a compensatory choice process; if it is, the information packet that is collected should be the one that produces the highest net gain. Alternatively, information may be collected in order to screen out options that fail to meet minimum standards; if this is the case, people should not choose options on which they have not collected available information. We tested these and other predictions from the two approaches in four experiments. Participants were given specific information about three attributes of each choice option but only probabilistic information about a fourth one. They rated attractiveness of options, decided whether to collect specific information about the fourth attribute of each one, rated options again, and then selected one of them. Data were consistent with neither of the above approaches. Instead they suggested that people collect information in order to facilitate their ability to discriminate between the attractiveness of options.

Effects of two sources of uncertainty in decision making

The effects of variation in the stimulus and response uncertainty of a decision task on the decision maker's subjective uncertainty, amount of information search, and information processing were examined. Results indicated that: (a) information search tended to continue until one bit of stimulus and/or response uncertainty remained, independent of the level of initial uncertainty; (b) the higher the stimulus uncertainty of the decision task, the faster S began seeking information; and (c) subjective uncertainty increased with both stimulus and response uncertainty. Unfortunately, the data precluded adequate examination of the possible relationship between subjective uncertainty and search behavior, but the latency of search was negatively correlated with the magnitude of subjective uncertainty across Ss, suggesting that a more extensive examination of the motivational effects of subjective uncertainty would be of value.