Progress in violence risk assessment and communication: hypothesis versus evidence

A Second Proof of Concept Investigation of Strengths Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth Tool With Justice-Involved Youth: Item Level Risk-Based Effects and Interactions

Despite efforts to incorporate protective factors or 'strengths' in applied risk assessments for criminal reoffending, there has been limited progress towards a consensus regarding what is meant by such terms, what effects predictors can exert, or how to describe such effects. This proof of concept study was undertaken to address those issues. A structured professional judgment tool was used to create lower and higher historical/static risk groups with a sample of 273 justice-involved male youth with sexual offenses followed over a fixed 3-year period. Using risk and protective poles to create pairs of dichotomous variables from trichotomously rated risk and protective items, risk-based exacerbation and risk-based protective effects were found. These varied in terms of whether the effect on the outcome of a new violent (including sexual) offense was larger, smaller, or absent for youth at higher or lower historical/static risk. Some of these potentially dynamic dichotomous variables were shown to have a protective (or risk) effect after controlling for both historical/static risk and that same item's risk (or protective) effect. Some moderated the association between historical/static risk and recidivism, strengthening or reducing it. Terms for these effects and implications of incorporating strengths in research and applied practice were considered.

Promotive, Mixed, and Risk Effects of Individual Items Comprising the SAPROF Assessment Tool With Justice-Involved Youth

The Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF) is a widely used structured professional judgment (SPJ) tool. Its indices have predictive validity regarding desistance from future violence in adult correctional/forensic psychiatric populations. Although not intended for applied use with youth, SAPROF items lend themselves to an investigation of whether their operationalizations capture only strengths or also risks. With 229 justice-involved male adolescents followed for a fixed 3-year period, promotive, risk, and mixed effects were found. Most SAPROF items exerted a mixed effect, being associated with higher and lower likelihoods of violent and any reoffending at opposite ends of their trichotomous ratings. Summing items weighted using their promotive and risk odds ratios produced statistically significant improvements in predictive accuracy, improvements found also with a cross-validation sample of 171 justice-involved youth. The nature of strengths and implications for the development of SPJ tools and training in their use were discussed.

The Role of Life Satisfaction in Predicting Youth Violence and Offending: A Prospective Examination

Life satisfaction in adolescence has been shown to protect against numerous negative outcomes (e.g., substance use, sexual risk-taking), but limited work has directly explored the relationship between life satisfaction and youth violence and offending. As such, we conducted a prospective assessment to explore this relationship among community (n = 334) and at-risk youth (n = 99). Findings suggest life satisfaction is significantly associated with decreased offending and violence within both samples and adds incremental value above established risk factors in predicting violent and total offending among community youth. Furthermore, moderation analyses indicate that the protective value of life satisfaction is greater for youth with high callous-unemotional traits. Mediation analyses suggest that youth who are unsatisfied with their lives may seek out substance use, in turn elevating risk of offending. Together, these findings indicate that efforts to improve overall life satisfaction may help prevent adolescent offending. However, future research is needed.

"I Know Correlation Doesn't Prove Causation, but . . .": Are We Jumping to Unfounded Conclusions About the Causes of Sexual Offending?

Identifying causes of sexual offending is the foundation of effective and efficient assessment, intervention, and policy aimed at reducing sexual offending. However, studies vary in methodological rigor and the inferences they support, and there are differences of opinion about the conclusions that can be drawn from ambiguous evidence. To explore how researchers in this area interpret the available empirical evidence, we asked authors of articles published in relevant specialized journals to identify (a) an important factor that may lead to sexual offending, (b) a study providing evidence of a relationship between that factor and sexual offending, and (c) the inferences supported by that study. Many participants seemed to endorse causal interpretations and conclusions that went beyond the methodological rigor of the study they identified. Our findings suggest that some researchers may not be adequately considering methodological issues when making inferences about the causes of sexual offending. Although it is difficult to conduct research in this area and all research designs can provide valuable information, sensitivity to the limits methodology places on inferences is important for the sake of accuracy and integrity, and to stimulate more informative research. We propose that increasing attention to methodology in the research community through better training and standards will advance scientific knowledge about the causes of sexual offending, and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of practice and policy.

Sex Offender Risk Assessment: Where Are We and Where Are We Going?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Risk assessment is one of the most ubiquitous tasks in the criminal justice system, informing virtually every decision made about offenders. This review, intended for researchers and practitioners, outlines some of the most important recent advances, emerging issues, and recommendations in sex offender risk assessment.

RECENT FINDINGS

The underlying nature and purpose of risk scales is reviewed, with implications for how we should evaluate them. Limits of recidivism probability estimates are discussed, and efforts to advance a common language for describing risk levels are highlighted. Advances in risk communication and field validity are summarized. The utility of protective risk factors in risk assessments is debated. Emerging areas in assessing offender change and assessments with child pornography offenders are discussed. Despite critical advances in the last few years, there are still important gaps in knowledge, particularly for risk communication, field implementation, offender change, and child pornography offenders.

Factors Predicting Desistance From Reoffending: A Validation Study of the SAPROF in Sexual Offenders

The present study aims at validating the German version of the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors (SAPROF) for violence risk in a representative sample of incarcerated adult male sexual offenders. Sexual offenders ( n = 450) were rated retrospectively with the SAPROF using the database of the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in the Austrian Prison System. Interrater reliability and predictive validity of the SAPROF scores concerning desistance from recidivism were calculated. Concurrent and incremental validity were tested using the combination of the SAPROF and the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20). Interrater reliability was moderate to excellent, and predictive accuracy for various types of recidivism was rather small to moderate. There was a clear negative relationship between the SAPROF and the SVR-20 risk factors. Whereas the SAPROF revealed itself as a significant predictor for various recidivism categories, it did not add any predictive value beyond the SVR-20. Although the SAPROF itself can predict desistance from recidivism, it seems to contribute to the risk assessment in convicted sexual offenders only to a limited extent, once customary risk assessment tools have been applied. Implications for clinical use and further studies are discussed.

Serious Offenders: Using Evidence to Predict and Manage the Risk

In response to the risk of serious further offences, an evidence-based approach is needed in risk management. A recent joint prison-probation inspection of the management of life sentence prisoners in six U.K. prisons found that the quality of assessment and plans to manage risk of harm to others was insufficient, with too much focus on the offender's verbal account. The present paper discusses observations of regular prisoner behaviour as the basis for predictions, and summarizes results of an evaluation of this methodology based on a sample of high-risk category prisoners released into the community. Prison behaviour has not traditionally been seen as a valid risk marker for violent recidivism, which may be because typically only conspicuous high-level behaviours are considered by risk management panels. Our research suggests that we are neglecting a valuable source of information on risk by failing to observe on-going and consistent pre-release behaviour. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.