Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

FecalSeq enrichment with RAD Sequencing from non-invasive environmental samples holds promise for genetic monitoring of an imperiled lagomorph

Despite advances in genomic sequencing and bioinformatics, conservation genomics is still often hindered by a reliance on non-invasive samples. The presence of exogenous DNA and the low quantity and poor quality of DNA in non-invasive samples have been a roadblock to sequencing, thereby limiting the potential for genomic monitoring of endangered species. Recent molecular advances, such as host DNA enrichment, hold promise for facilitating sequencing from non-invasive samples. We used the FecalSeq method to enrich DNA extracted from wild-collected fecal pellets of the imperiled New England cottontail and identified SNPs from 3RAD Sequencing. We obtained SNPs from rabbit pellets, including pellets that were collected in poor environmental conditions and samples that performed poorly with microsatellites. Measures of sequencing success improved with greater amounts of starting DNA and 32% of samples generated SNP genotypes that passed quality control filtering. Genotyping error rates were high, however, and the approach was unable to consistently distinguish unique individuals or matching genotypes, while it was suitable for recovering the expected population structure. Pairing FecalSeq enrichment with RADseq is a promising low-cost method for monitoring wild populations using non-invasive samples in an environmental context, but it may be better suited for informing conservation through population genomics.

Perturbation of tonoplast sucrose transport alters carbohydrate utilization for seasonal growth and defense metabolism in coppiced poplar

Nonstructural carbohydrate reserves of stems and roots underpin overall tree fitness and productivity under short-rotation management practices such as coppicing for bioenergy. While sucrose and starch comprise the predominant stem carbohydrate reserves of Populus, utilization for fitness and agricultural productivity is understood primarily in terms of starch turnover. The tonoplast sucrose transport protein SUT4 modulates sucrose export from source leaves to distant sinks during photoautotrophic growth, but the possibility of its involvement in remobilizing carbohydrates from storage organs during heterotrophic growth has not been explored. Here, we used PtaSUT4-knockout mutants of Populus tremula × P. alba (INRA 717-1B4) in winter (cool) and summer (warm) glasshouse coppicing experiments to assess SUT4 involvement in reserve utilization. Conditions preceding and supporting summer sprouting were considered favorable for growth, while those preceding and supporting cool temperature sprouting were suboptimal akin to conditions associated with coppicing as generally practiced. Epicormic bud emergence was delayed in sut4 mutants following lower temperature 'winter' but not summer coppicing. Winter xylem hexose increases were observed in control but not in sut4 stumps after coppicing. The magnitude of starch and sucrose reserve depletion was similar in control and sut4 stumps during the winter and did not explain the sprouting and xylem hexose differences. However, winter maintenance costs appeared higher in sut4 based partly on Krebs cycle intermediate levels. In control plants, bark accrual of abundant defense metabolites, including salicinoids and condensed tannins, was higher in summer than in winter, but this increase of summer defense allocations was attenuated in sut4 mutants. Temperature-sensitive trade-offs between growth and other priorities may therefore depend on SUT4 in Populus.

Health and wellbeing benefits of urban forests in winter: a narrative review

Urban trees and green spaces, hereafter, urban forests, are known to contribute to human health and wellbeing. However, research has predominantly focused on warm seasons. To understand whether these benefits extend to winter months, when vegetation is dormant, we conducted a narrative review of the health outcomes associated with urban forests in winter in cities with cold climates. We synthesized findings from 21 studies originating from Asia, Europe and North America. The most studied health outcomes were mental health, physical activity and physiological relaxation, all showing a positive relationship with urban forest exposure. These finding appear similar to those observed in warmer seasons. However, more studies are needed, on a diversity of health outcomes, to draw more robust conclusions in this emerging research field. Future research on urban forests should therefore consider winter and the effect of seasonality to improve health and wellbeing of urban dwellers in all seasons.

Evaluation of the association between climate warming and the spread and proliferation of Ixodes scapularis in northern states in the Eastern United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) is widely distributed in forested areas across the eastern United States. The public health impact of I. scapularis is greatest in the north, where nymphal stage ticks commonly bite humans and serve as primary vectors for multiple human pathogens. There were dramatic increases in the tick's distribution and abundance over the last half-century in the northern part of the eastern US, and climate warming is commonly mentioned as a primary driver for these changes. In this review, we summarize the evidence for the observed spread and proliferation of I. scapularis being driven by climate warming. Although laboratory and small-scale field studies have provided insights into how temperature and humidity impact survival and reproduction of I. scapularis, using these associations to predict broad-scale distribution and abundance patterns is more challenging. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to model the distribution and abundance of I. scapularis at state, regional, and global scales based on climate and landscape variables, but outcomes have been ambiguous. Across the models, the functional relationships between seasonal or annual measures of heat, cold, precipitation, or humidity and tick presence or abundance were inconsistent. The contribution of climate relative to landscape variables was poorly defined. Over the last half-century, climate warming occurred in parallel with spread and population increase of the white-tailed deer, the most important reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, in the northern part of the eastern US. There is strong evidence for white-tailed deer playing a key role to facilitate spread and proliferation of I. scapularis in the US over the last century. However, due to a lack of spatially and temporally congruent data, climate, landscape, and host variables are rarely included in the same models, thus limiting the ability to evaluate their relative contributions or interactions in defining the geographic range and abundance patterns of ticks. We conclude that the role of climate change as a key driver for geographic expansion and population increase of I. scapularis in the northern part of the eastern US over the last half-century remains uncertain.

Changes in the geographic distribution of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, in the United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) was considered a species of no medical concern until the mid-1970s. By that time, the tick's geographic distribution was thought to be mainly in the southeastern United States (US), with additional localized populations along the Eastern Seaboard north to southern Massachusetts and in the Upper Midwest. Since 1975, I. scapularis has been implicated as a vector of seven human pathogens and is now widely distributed across the eastern US up to the border with Canada. Geographic expansion of tick-borne diseases associated with I. scapularis (e.g., Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis) is attributed to an expanding range of the tick. However, due to changes in tick surveillance efforts over time, it is difficult to differentiate between range expansion and increased recognition of already established tick populations. We provide a history of the documented occurrence of I. scapularis in the US from its description in 1821 to present, emphasizing studies that provide evidence of expansion of the geographic distribution of the tick. Deforestation and decimation of the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the primary reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, during the 1800s presumably led to the tick disappearing from large areas of the eastern US where it previously had been established. Subsequent reforestation and deer population recovery, together with recent climate warming, contributed to I. scapularis proliferating in and spreading from refugia where it had persisted into the early 1900s. From documented tick collection records, it appears I. scapularis was present in numerous locations in the southern part of the eastern US in the early 1900s, whereas in the north it likely was limited to a small number of refugia sites during that time period. There is clear evidence for established populations of I. scapularis in coastal New York and Massachusetts by 1950, and in northwestern Wisconsin by the late 1960s. While recognizing that surveillance for I. scapularis increased dramatically from the 1980s onward, we describe multiple instances of clearly documented expansion of the tick's geographic distribution in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley regions from the 1980s to present. Spread and local population increase of I. scapularis, together with documentation of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto in host-seeking ticks, was universally followed by increases in Lyme disease cases in these areas. Southward expansion of northern populations of I. scapularis, for which the host questing behavior of the nymphal stage leads to substantially higher risk of human bites compared with southern populations, into Virginia and North Carolina also was followed by rising numbers of Lyme disease cases. Ongoing surveillance of ticks and tick-borne pathogens is essential to provide the data needed for studies that seek to evaluate the relative roles of land cover, tick hosts, and climate in explaining and predicting geographic expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases.

Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study

The modern unambiguous climate change reveals in a rapid increase of air temperature, which is more distinctly expressed in the Arctic than in any other part of the world, affecting people health and well-being. The main objective of the current research is to explore the inter- and intra-annual changes in thermal stress for people in the Arctic, specifically for two parts of Beringia: Alaska, USA, and Chukotka, Russia, using climatology of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). Data for 39 locations are taken from the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis for the period 1979-2020. Climatologically, the study area is divided into four subregions in Alaska: North, Interior, West and South, and two in Chukotka: Interior and Coast. The extreme coldest UTCI categories (1 and 2) are most common in coastal locations of northern Alaska and Chukotka, where strong winds exacerbate the low temperatures during winter. The results show that the frequency of category 1 (UTCI<-40°C) varies spatially from a quarter of all hours annually in Alaska North to almost zero in Alaska South. On the other hand, the warmest categories are rarely reached almost everywhere in Alaska and Chukotka, and even categories 7 and 8 (UTCI between +26 and +38°C) are found occasionally only at interior locations. Category 6 with no thermal stress (UTCI between +9 and+26°C) has frequencies up to 3% and 25% in Alaska North and Interior, respectively. The extremely cold thermal stress frequencies have substantially decreased over the 1979-2020 period, especially in Alaska North and Chukotka Coast. At the same time, the number of hours with UTCI in the comfortable category of thermal perception has increased depending on subregion, from 25 to 203 h/year. Overall, a decrease in the UTCI categories of extremely cold stress is coupled with an increase in the comfortable range in both Alaska and Chukotka. The salient conclusion is that, from the point of view of comfort and safety, global warming has a positive impact on the climatology of thermal stress in the Arctic, providing advantages for the development of tourism and recreation.

Distinct microbial communities across a climatically versatile summit in the Lesotho highlands

Most studies investigating the effects of climatological factors on microbial community composition and diversity focus on comparisons of geographically distinct environments (e.g., cold vs hot deserts) or across various temporal scales. Mountain regions provide unique environments to explore relationships between various environmental factors and soil microorganisms given their range of microclimatic conditions and vegetation types. This study investigated micro-topographically (i.e., north-/south-facing slope aspects and flat plateau between them) controlled microbial diversity and community structures across a Lesotho mountain summit. Amplicon sequence analysis revealed that the north- and south-facing slopes were dominated by more Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes, while the plateau was dominated by more Acidobacteria. Fungi from the phylum Chytridiomycota more strongly dominated the plateau and the north-facing slope than the south-facing slope. Slope aspect, through its direct influence on air and soil micro-climatology and plant diversity, significantly affects bacterial and fungal community structures at this location. These results provide original insight into soil microbial diversity in the Lesotho highlands and offer an opportunity to project the likely response of soil microorganisms to future climate warming in highly variable mountain environments such as the Lesotho highlands.

Cold-season freeze frequency is a pervasive driver of subcontinental forest growth

SignificanceThe reduction of freeze exposure with winter warming has consequences for carbon sequestration by northern forests. Quantifying the impact of these changes on tree growth is, however, challenging because of among- and within-tree species variability in freeze tolerance and phenological cues. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of tree growth response to the cold-season frequency of freeze days using an extensive tree-ring dataset covering Canada's forests. Our study shows that tree growth responses to freeze exposure vary in direction and magnitude by clade and species but also with leaf-out strategy, tree age and size, and environmental factors. Such quantification can help predict terrestrial carbon dynamics under climate change.

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980-1986 and 2003-2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

Nine Maxims for the Ecology of Cold-Climate Winters

Frozen winters define life at high latitudes and altitudes. However, recent, rapid changes in winter conditions have highlighted our relatively poor understanding of ecosystem function in winter relative to other seasons. Winter ecological processes can affect reproduction, growth, survival, and fitness, whereas processes that occur during other seasons, such as summer production, mediate how organisms fare in winter. As interest grows in winter ecology, there is a need to clearly provide a thought-provoking framework for defining winter and the pathways through which it affects organisms. In the present article, we present nine maxims (concise expressions of a fundamentally held principle or truth) for winter ecology, drawing from the perspectives of scientists with diverse expertise. We describe winter as being frozen, cold, dark, snowy, less productive, variable, and deadly. Therefore, the implications of winter impacts on wildlife are striking for resource managers and conservation practitioners. Our final, overarching maxim, “winter is changing,” is a call to action to address the need for immediate study of the ecological implications of rapidly changing winters.

Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

Network analysis can guide resilience-based management in forest landscapes under global change

Forests are projected to undergo dramatic compositional and structural shifts prompted by global changes, such as climatic changes and intensifying natural disturbance regimes. Future uncertainty makes planning for forest management exceptionally difficult, demanding novel approaches to maintain or improve the ability of forest ecosystems to respond and rapidly reorganize after disturbance events. Adopting a landscape perspective in forest management is particularly important in fragmented forest landscapes where both diversity and connectivity play key roles in determining resilience to global change. In this context, network analysis and functional traits combined with ecological dynamic modeling can help evaluate changes in functional response diversity and connectivity within and among forest stands in fragmented landscapes. Here, we coupled ecological dynamic modeling with functional traits analysis and network theory to analyze forested landscapes as an interconnected network of forest patches. We simulated future forest landscape dynamics in a large landscape in southern Quebec, Canada, under a combination of climate, disturbance, and management scenarios. We depicted the landscape as a functional network, assessed changes in future resilience using indicators at multiple spatial scales, and evaluated if current management practices are suitable for maintaining resilience to simulated changes in regimes. Our results show that climate change would promote forest productivity and favor heat-adapted deciduous species. Changes in natural disturbances will likely have negative impacts on native conifers and will drive changes in forest type composition. Climate change negatively impacted all resilience indicators and triggered losses of functional response diversity and connectivity across the landscape with undesirable consequences on the capacity of these forests to adapt to global change. Also, current management strategies failed to promote resilience at different spatial levels, highlighting the need for a more active and thoughtful approach to forest management under global change. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of combining dynamic landscape-scale simulation modeling with network analyses to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change as well as human and natural disturbances on forest resilience under global change.

Snowmelt periods as hot moments for soil N dynamics: a case study in Maine, USA

The vernal transition represents the seasonal transition to spring, occurring as temperatures rise at the end of winter. With rapid snowmelt, microbial community turnover, and accelerated nutrient cycling, this is a critical but relatively under-studied period of ecosystem function. We conducted a study over two consecutive winters (2015-2016) at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine to examine how changing winter conditions (warming winters, reduced snow accumulation) altered soil nitrogen availability and stream N export during winter and the vernal transition, and how these patterns were influenced by ecosystem N status (N-enriched vs. N-limited). Of the two study years, 2016 had a warmer winter with substantially less snow accumulation and a discontinuous snowpack-and as a result, had a longer vernal transition and a snowpack that thawed before the vernal transition began. Across both years, snowmelt triggered a transition, signaled by increased ammonium concentrations in soil, decreased soil nitrate concentrations due to flushing by meltwater, and increased stream nitrate exports. Despite the contrasting winter conditions, both years showed similar patterns in N availability and export, differing only in the timing of these transitions. The vernal transition has conventionally been considered a critical period for biogeochemical cycling, because the associated snowmelt event triggers physicochemical and biochemical changes in soil systems. This was consistent with our results in 2015, but our data for 2016 show that this may not always hold true, and instead, that warmer, low-snow winters may demonstrate a temporal asynchrony between snowmelt and the vernal transition. We also show that ecosystem N status is a strong driver of the seasonal N pattern, and the interaction of N status and changing climate must be further investigated to understand ecosystem function under our current predicted trajectory of warming winters, declining snowfall, and winter thaw events.

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus)

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species.

Rut Depth Evaluation of a Triple-Bogie System for Forwarders—Field Trials with TLS Data Support

In 2019, the machine manufacturer HSM presented a forwarder prototype for timber hauling in cut-to-length processes fitted with a new 10-wheel triple-bogie (TB) setup approach aimed at promoting sustainable forest management by reducing the ecological impact of forest operations, especially under soft-soil working conditions. The purpose of our study was to assess the resulting soil-protection effect emerging from additional wheel-contact surface area. For this, the rut development under known cumulative weight, related to the soil conditions of shear strength and moisture content, was recorded for later comparison. Additional terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to generate a multi-temporal digital terrain model (DTM) in order to enhance the data sample, assess data quality, and facilitate visualization of the impact of local disturbance factors. In all TB configurations, a rut depth of 10 cm (5.8–7.2 cm) was not exceeded after the hauling of a reference amount of 90 m3 of timber (average soil shear strength reference of 67 kPa, volumetric water content (VMC) 43%). Compared to a reference dataset, all observed configurations ranked in the lowest-impact machine categories on related soil stability classes, and the configuration without bogie tracks revealed the highest machine weight to weight distribution trade-off potential.

Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass-dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming

Northern temperate ecosystems are experiencing warmer and more variable winters, trends that are expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Despite this, most studies have focused on climate change impacts during the growing season, particularly when comparing responses across different vegetation cover types. Here we examined how a perennial grassland and adjacent mixed forest ecosystem in New Hampshire, United States, responded to a period of highly variable winters from 2014 through 2017 that included the warmest winter on record to date. In the grassland, record-breaking temperatures in the winter of 2015/2016 led to a February onset of plant growth and the ecosystem became a sustained carbon sink well before winter ended, taking up roughly 90 g/m² more carbon during the winter to spring transition than in other recorded years. The forest was an unusually large carbon source during the same period. While forest photosynthesis was restricted by leaf-out phenology, warm winter temperatures caused large pulses of ecosystem respiration that released nearly 230 g C/m² from February through April, more than double the carbon losses during that period in cooler years. These findings suggest that, as winters continue to warm, increases in ecosystem respiration outside the growing season could outpace increases in carbon uptake during a longer growing season, particularly in forests that depend on leaf-out timing to initiate carbon uptake. In ecosystems with a perennial leaf habit, warming winter temperatures are more likely to increase ecosystem carbon uptake through extension of the active growing season. Our results highlight the importance of understanding relationships among antecedent winter conditions and carbon exchange across land-cover types to understand how landscape carbon exchange will change under projected climate warming.