Good-bye to tropical alpine plant giants under warmer climates? Loss of range and genetic diversity in Lobelia rhynchopetalum

The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change

Reaumuria songarica, a drought-resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 104 km2, representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet-B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources.

Distribution and extent of suitable habitats of Ruspoli's Turaco (Tauraco ruspolii) and White-cheeked Turaco (Tauraco leucotis) under a changing climate in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Understanding the distribution pattern of species and their suitable habitat is key to focus conservation efforts. Climate change has had notable impact on the distribution and extent of suitable habitats, and the long-term survival of various species. We aim to determine the distribution and extent of suitable habitats for Tauraco ruspolii and T. leucotis in Ethiopia and predict their range in the 2050s and 2070s using MaxEnt algorithm. We used 25 and 29 rarified occurrence points for T. ruspolii and T. leucotis, respectively, and 13 environmental variables. Three regularization multipliers and two cut-off thresholds were used to map the potential suitable habitats for each species under current and future climates. Maps were assembled from these techniques to produce final composite tertiary maps and investigated the habitat suitability overlap between the two species using the UNION tool in the geographical information system.

RESULT

All model run performances were highly accurate for both species. Precipitation of the driest month and vegetation cover are the most influential variables for the habitat suitability of T. ruspolii. The habitat suitability of T. leucotis is also mainly influenced by mean temperature of the driest quarter and vegetation cover. Under the current climate, the suitable habitat predicted for T. ruspolii covered about 24,639.19 km2, but its range size change shows a gain and increase by 156.00% and 142.68% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The T. leucotis's current suitable habitat ranges about 204,397.62 km², but this is reduced by 40.84% and 68.67% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our modeling also showed that there was suitable habitat overlap between them at the margin of their respective habitat types in time series.

CONCLUSION

We concluded that there is a direct or indirect impact of climate change on the suitable habitat range expansion for T. ruspolii and contraction for T. leucotis as well as overlapping of these turaco species in different regions of Ethiopia. Therefore, understanding the distribution of current and future suitable habitats of the two turaco species can provide valuable information to implement conservation practices for the species and the regions as well.

Modeling habitat suitability for the lesser-known populations of endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains, Ethiopia

Habitat suitability models have become a valuable tool for wildlife conservation and management, and are frequently used to better understand the range and habitat requirements of rare and endangered species. In this study, we employed two habitat suitability modeling techniques, namely Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) models, to identify potential suitable habitats for the endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) and environmental factors affecting its distribution in the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains of Ethiopia. Presence points, used to develop our habitat suitability models, were recorded from fecal pellet counts (n = 130) encountered along 196 randomly established transects in 2015 and 2016. Predictor variables used in our models included major landcover types, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), greenness and wetness tasseled cap vegetation indices, elevation, and slope. Area Under the Curve model evaluations for BRT and Maxent were 0.96 and 0.95, respectively, demonstrating high performance. Both models were then ensembled into a single binary output highlighting an area of agreement. Our results suggest that 1864 km2 (9.1%) of the 20,567 km2 study area is suitable habitat for the mountain nyala with land cover types, elevation, NDVI, and slope of the terrain being the most important variables for both models. Our results highlight the extent to which habitat loss and fragmentation have disconnected mountain nyala subpopulations. Our models demonstrate the importance of further protecting suitable habitats for mountain nyala to ensure the species' conservation.

Potential changes in the extent of suitable habitats for geladas (Theropithecus gelada) in the Anthropocene

BACKGROUND

Climate change coupled with other anthropogenic pressures may affect the extent of suitable habitat for species and thus their distributions. This is particularly true for species occupying high-altitude habitats such as the gelada (Theropithecus gelada) of the Ethiopian highlands. To explore the impact of climate change on species distributions, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used. Here we model the current and future extent of sutibale habitat for geladas. Our modelling was based on 285 presence locations of geladas, covering their complete current distribution. We used different techniques to generate pseudoabsence datasets, MaxEnt model complexities, and cut-off thresholds to map the potential distribution of gelada under current and future climates (2050 and 2070). We assembled maps from these techniques to produce a final composite map. We also evaluated the change in the topographic features of gelada over the past 200 years by comparing the topography in current and historical settings.

RESULTS

All model runs had high performances, AUC = 0.87-0.96. Under the current climate, the suitable habitat predicted with high certainty was 90,891 km2, but it decreased remarkably under future climates, -36% by 2050 and - 52% by 2070. However, since the habitats of geladas already extend to mountaintop grasslands, no remarkable range shifts across elevation gradients were predicted under future climates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated that climate change most likely results in a loss of suitable habitat for geladas, particularly south of the Rift Valley. Currently geladas are confined to higher altitudes and steep slopes compared to historical sightings, probably qualifying geladas as refugee species. The difference in topography is potentially associated with anthropogenic pressures that drove niche truncation to higher altitudes, undermining the climatic and topographic niche our models predicted. We recommend protecting the current habitats of geladas even when they are forecasted to become climatically unsuitable in the future, in particular for the population south of the Rift Valley.

The dimensionality reductions of environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of species distribution models

How to effectively obtain species-related low-dimensional data from massive environmental variables has become an urgent problem for species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we will explore whether dimensionality reduction on environmental variables can improve the predictive performance of SDMs. We first used two linear (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and independent components analysis) and two nonlinear (i.e., kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection) dimensionality reduction techniques (DRTs) to reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional environmental data. Then, we established five SDMs based on the environmental variables of dimensionality reduction for 23 real plant species and nine virtual species, and compared the predictive performance of those with the SDMs based on the selected environmental variables through Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC). In addition, we studied the effects of DRTs, model complexity, and sample size on the predictive performance of SDMs. The predictive performance of SDMs under DRTs other than KPCA is better than using PCC. And the predictive performance of SDMs using linear DRTs is better than using nonlinear DRTs. In addition, using DRTs to deal with environmental variables has no less impact on the predictive performance of SDMs than model complexity and sample size. When the model complexity is at the complex level, PCA can improve the predictive performance of SDMs the most by 2.55% compared with PCC. At the middle level of sample size, the PCA improved the predictive performance of SDMs by 2.68% compared with the PCC. Our study demonstrates that DRTs have a significant effect on the predictive performance of SDMs. Specifically, linear DRTs, especially PCA, are more effective at improving model predictive performance under relatively complex model complexity or large sample sizes.

Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species

Climate is an important limiting factor of species' niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.

Conservation implications of mapping the potential distribution of an Ethiopian endemic versatile medicinal plant, Echinops kebericho Mesfin

Echinops kebericho is a narrow-range multipurpose medicinal plant confined to Ethiopia. Intense land use change and overharvesting for traditional medicine have resulted in narrow distributions of its populations. It is a threatened species with a decreasing population trend. This study aims to map its potential distribution, which is key to guide conservation efforts and sustainable use. We modeled the potential distribution of E. kebercho using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) employing 11 less correlated predictor variables by calibrating the model at two complexity levels and replicating each model 10 times using a cross validation technique. We projected the models into the whole of Ethiopia and produced binary presence-absence maps by classifying the average map from both complexity levels applying three threshold criteria and ensembling the resulting maps into one for the final result. We mapped suitable habitat predicted with high certainty and identified local districts where E. kebericho can be cultivated or introduced to enhance its conservation. We estimated that E.kebercho has about 137,925 km2 of suitable habitat, mainly concentrated in the western highlands of the Ethiopian mountains. Our models at both complexity levels had high average performances, AUC values of 0.925 for the complex model and 0.907 for the simpler model. The variations in performance among the 10 model replicates were not remarkable, an AUC standard deviation of 0.040 for complex and 0.046 for simple model. Although E. kebericho is locally confined, our models predicted that it has a remarkably wider potential distribution area. We recommend introducing E. kebericho to these areas to improve its conservation status and tap its multiple benefits on a sustainable basis. Locally confined threatened plants and animals likely have wider potential distributions than their actual distributions and thus similar methodology can be applied for their conservation.

Ecology, evolution, and conservation of Ethiopia's biodiversity

Ethiopia is home to one of the richest and most unique assemblages of fauna and flora on the African continent. Contained within its borders are two major centers of endemism, the mesic Roof of Africa (also known as the Ethiopian Highlands) and the arid Horn of Africa, resulting from the country's varied topography and consequent geographic isolation. These centers of endemism are crucial to global conservation as evidenced by their classification within the Eastern Afromontane and Horn of Africa biodiversity hotspots, respectively. Ethiopia's diverse ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain are increasingly threatened by climate change and the growing impacts of Africa's second largest human and largest livestock populations. In this paper, we focus on several key areas of recent and ongoing research on Ethiopian biodiversity that have broadened our understanding of nature and its conservation in Africa. Topics explored include the behavioral ecology of Ethiopia's large social mammals, the ecology and conservation of its unique coffee forests, and Ethiopian approaches to community conservation, fortress conservation, and nature-based solutions. We also highlight the increasing prominence of Ethiopian scientists in studies of the country's biodiversity in recent decades. We suggest promising avenues for future research in evolutionary biology, ecology, systematics, and conservation in Ethiopia and discuss how recent and ongoing work in Ethiopia is helping us better understand and conserve nature in the human-dominated landscapes of Africa and other tropical regions today.

Modeling and Mapping Habitat Suitability of Highland Bamboo under Climate Change in Ethiopia

Highland bamboo (Oldeania alpina formerly Arundinaria alpina or Yushania alpina) is a species of significant conservation value in Afromontane ecosystems across Africa. It also plays a significant role in the livelihoods of local communities. However, global climate change is anticipated to alter its ecological niche, leading to range shifts and possible habitat contractions. This study aimed to identify potentially suitable habitats for highland bamboo in Ethiopia, determine the resilience of the species under climate change, and establish the environmental factors affecting its habitat. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was implemented in the SDM R package using 231 georeferenced presence records together with climate, topographic, and soil data. To assess climate change risks to the species, predictive models were developed assuming climate scenarios for 2061–2080 under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely, SSP2-45 and SSP5-85. The results indicated that highland bamboo mainly grows in high elevation areas with altitudes of 2100–3100 m asl with mean annual temperatures of 11.5–19.3 °C, annual precipitation of 873–1962 mm, precipitation of the driest quarter of 36–147 mm, soil pH of 5.6, and soil CEC of 30.7 cmolc/kg. The current potentially suitable habitat for this species in Ethiopia was estimated at 61,831.58 km2, with the majority of habitats being in the southern and southwestern parts of the country. Our models predicted that the suitable habitat will shrink by 13.4% under the SSP5-85 scenario, while potential new suitable areas for this species were identified under the SSP2-45 scenario. Future vulnerable areas were mostly found in central Ethiopia. Based on the predictions, we conclude that most of the suitable habitats for highland bamboo will remain suitable between the years 2061 and 2080.

Plant Diversity and Soil Nutrients in a Tropical Coastal Secondary Forest: Association Ordination and Sampling Year Differences

Studying the patterns of changes in species diversity and soil properties can improve our knowledge of community succession. However, there is still a gap in understanding how soil conditions are related to plant diversity in tropical coastal secondary forests. We sampled plant diversity and soil nutrients spanning two different years (2012 and 2019) to assess the patterns of species diversity and relationships of soil nutrients and species diversity on Hainan Island, southern China. Results showed that the soil pH and total nitrogen (TN) significantly decreased while the soil organic matter (OM) and total phosphorus (TP) significantly increased from 2012 to 2019. Plant species diversity was significantly higher in 2012 than in 2019, and the dominant species significantly changed in two different years. Using multiple regression analysis, we determined that soil TP and TN were significantly related to plant diversity in 2012 and 2019, respectively. Using CCA analysis, TN and OM were the strongest predictors for dominant species in 2012, whereas the soil TP and TN were the strongest predictors for dominant species in 2019. Our findings show a significant change in plant diversity and dominant species after 7 years of development in the tropical coastal secondary forest. The patterns of plant diversity and soil nutrients increase our knowledge of forest restoration in coastal areas.

Quest for New Space for Restricted Range Mammals: The Case of the Endangered Walia Ibex

Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibrated several models that differ in statistical properties to estimate the spatial extent of suitable habitats of the Walia ibex in the Simen Mountains, as well as in other parts of the Ethiopian highlands to assess potentially suitable areas outside the current distribution range of the species. We further addressed the potential consequences of future climate change using a climate model with four emission scenarios. Model projections estimated the potential suitable habitat under current climate to 501–672 km2 in Simen and 6,251–7,732 km2 in other Ethiopian mountains. Under projected climate change by 2,080, the suitable habitat became larger in Simen but smaller in other parts of Ethiopia. The projected expansion in Simen is contrary to the general expectation of shrinking suitable habitats for high-elevation species under climate warming and may partly be due to the ruggedness of these particular mountains. The Walia ibex has a wide altitudinal range and is able to exploit very steep slopes, allowing it to track the expected vegetation shift to higher altitudes. However, this potential positive impact may not last long under continued climate warming, as the species will not have much more new space left to colonize. Our study indicates that the current distribution range can be substantially increased by reintroducing and/or translocating the species to other areas with suitable habitat. Indeed, to increase the viability and prospects for survival of this flagship species, we strongly recommend human-assisted reintroduction to other Ethiopian mountains. Emulating the successful reintroduction of the Alpine ibex that has spread from a single mountain in Italy to its historical ranges of the Alps in Europe might contribute to saving the Walia ibex from extinction.

Human activity strongly influences genetic dynamics of the most widespread invasive plant in the sub-Antarctic

The link between the successful establishment of alien species and propagule pressure is well-documented. Less known is how humans influence the post-introduction dynamics of invasive alien populations. The latter requires studying parallel invasions by the same species in habitats that are differently impacted by humans. We analysed microsatellite and genome size variation, and then compared the genetic diversity and structure of invasive Poa annua L. on two sub-Antarctic islands: human-occupied Marion Island and unoccupied Prince Edward Island. We also carried out niche modelling to map the potential distribution of the species on both islands. We found high levels of genetic diversity and evidence for extensive admixture between genetically distinct lineages of P. annua on Marion Island. By contrast, the Prince Edward Island populations showed low genetic diversity, no apparent admixture, and had smaller genomes. On both islands, high genetic diversity was apparent at human landing sites, and on Marion Island, also around human settlements, suggesting that these areas received multiple introductions and/or acted as initial introduction sites and secondary sources (bridgeheads) for invasive populations. More than 70 years of continuous human activity associated with a meteorological station on Marion Island led to a distribution of this species around human settlements and along footpaths, which facilitates ongoing gene flow among geographically separated populations. By contrast, this was not the case for Prince Edward Island, where P. annua populations showed high genetic structure. The high levels of genetic variation and admixture in P. annua facilitated by human activity, coupled with high habitat suitability on both islands, suggest that P. annua is likely to increase its distribution and abundance in the future.

Genomic, Habitat, and Leaf Shape Analyses Reveal a Possible Cryptic Species and Vulnerability to Climate Change in a Threatened Daisy

Olearia pannosa is a plant species listed as vulnerable in Australia. Two subspecies are currently recognised (O. pannosa subsp. pannosa (silver daisy) and O. pannosa subsp. cardiophylla (velvet daisy)), which have overlapping ranges but distinct leaf shape. Remnant populations face threats from habitat fragmentation and climate change. We analysed range-wide genomic data and leaf shape variation to assess population diversity and divergence and to inform conservation management strategies. We detected three distinct genetic groupings and a likely cryptic species. Samples identified as O. pannosa subsp. cardiophylla from the Flinders Ranges in South Australia were genetically distinct from all other samples and likely form a separate, range-restricted species. Remaining samples formed two genetic clusters, which aligned with leaf shape differences but not fully with current subspecies classifications. Levels of genetic diversity and inbreeding differed between the three genetic groups, suggesting each requires a separate management strategy. Additionally, we tested for associations between genetic and environmental variation and carried out habitat suitability modelling for O. pannosa subsp. pannosa populations. We found mean annual maximum temperature explained a significant proportion of genomic variance. Habitat suitability modelling identified mean summer maximum temperature, precipitation seasonality and mean annual rainfall as constraints on the distribution of O. pannosa subsp. pannosa, highlighting increasing aridity as a threat for populations located near suitability thresholds. Our results suggest maximum temperature is an important agent of selection on O. pannosa subsp. pannosa and should be considered in conservation strategies. We recommend taxonomic revision of O. pannosa and provide conservation management recommendations.

Climate change shapes the future evolution of plant metabolism

Planet Earth has experienced many dramatic atmospheric and climatic changes throughout its 4.5-billion-year history that have profoundly impacted the evolution of life as we know it. Photosynthetic organisms, and specifically plants, have played a paramount role in shaping the Earth's atmosphere through oxygen production and carbon sequestration. In turn, the diversity of plants has been shaped by historical atmospheric and climatic changes: plants rose to this challenge by evolving new developmental and metabolic traits. These adaptive traits help plants to thrive in diverse growth conditions, while benefiting humanity through the production of food, raw materials, and medicines. However, the current rapid rate of climate change caused by human activities presents unprecedented new challenges to the future of plants. Here, we discuss the potential effects of modern climate change on plants, with specific attention to plant specialized metabolism. We explore potential avenues of future scientific investigations, powered by cutting-edge methods such as synthetic biology and genome engineering, to better understand and mitigate the consequences of rapid climate change on plant fitness and plant usage by humans.

Distribution pattern and habitat preference for Lobelia species (Campanulaceae) in five countries of East Africa

East Africa is one of the centres of distribution and diversity for Lobelia L. (Campanulaceae, sub-family Lobelioideae). Lobelia habitats in East Africa have been facing habitat fragmentation and loss, which are recognised as a major threat to biodiversity. However, previous plant conservation studies in East Africa only focused on protected areas and ignored unprotected areas. Future conservation strategies of plants, such as Lobelia, will depend on knowledge of their distribution patterns and habitat preference in East Africa. To understand the distribution pattern and the habitat preference of Lobelia in five countries (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi) of East Africa, we conducted a literature review in the seven major vegetation regions (afro-alpine, afro-montane forest, drier savannah, grasslands, wetter savannah, Zambezian woodland and semi-desert and desert). We also employed meander and patterned searches, which allowed greater opportunities for recording Lobelia species. Our results showed that the genus is distributed in all of the seven regions of the five countries with 54 taxa. The afro-montane forest region, with 41 taxa, is the richest in species diversity, followed by the Zambezian woodland region with 18 taxa. The semi-desert and desert region has the lowest number with only four taxa. The afro-alpine region has 15 taxa, although the region is the smallest by area. The herbaceous type was found in all regions, while the giant type has a clear preference for the afro-alpine and afro-montane forest regions. Future conservation for Lobelia should consider its habitat preference by, for example, focusing on the afro-alpine and afro-montane forest regions. This study will facilitate the setting of future conservation strategies for Lobelia.

Ethiopian vegetation types, climate and topography

Ethiopia is land of geographical contrasts with elevations that range from 125 m below sea level in the Danakil Depression to 4533 m above sea level in the Semien Mountains, a world heritage site. The diverse climate of various ecological regions of the country has driven the establishment of diverse vegetation, which range from Afroalpine vegetation in the mountains to the arid and semi-arid vegetation type in the lowlands. The formation of Ethiopian vegetation is highly connected to the climate and geological history of the country. Highland uplift and rift formation due to volcanic forces formed novel habitats with different topography and climatic conditions that have ultimately become drivers for vegetation diversification. Due to Ethiopia's connection with the temperate biome in the north and the Arabian Peninsula during the dry glacial period, the biotic assemblage of Ethiopian highlands consists of both Afrotropical and palearctic biota. In general, eight distinct vegetation types have been identified in Ethiopia, based mainly on elevation and climate gradients. These vegetation types host their own unique species, but also share several common species. Some of the vegetation types are identified as centers of endemism and have subsequently been identified globally as the East African Afromontane hotspot. Ethiopia is biologically rich, with more than 6500 vascular plant species. Of these species, 12% are endemic mainly due to geographical isolation and unique climatic conditions. However, researchers have yet to extensively investigate the ecology, phenology, as well as the evolutionary, genetics, and conservation status of Ethiopian vegetations at community and species level over space and time. This lack of research is a barrier to achieving the goal of zero global plant extinctions. Taxa extinction risk assessment has not been extensively carried out for majority of Ethiopian species. Detailed research is needed to explore how vegetation and species respond to rapidly growing environmental change. Currently, human-induced climate change and habitat fragmentation are severely threatening the country's biodiversity, and the consequences of these effects have not been studied at large. Furthermore, we still lack scientific evidence on how micro- and macro-ecological and evolutionary processes have been shaping vegetation structures in this climatically, topographically, and geologically diverse country. These gaps in our knowledge represent an opportunity for ecologists, geneticists, evolutionary biologists, conservation biologists, and other experts to investigate the biodiversity status and the complex ecological processes involved in structuring vegetation dynamics so as to help take effective conservation actions.

Afro-alpine flagships revisited: Parallel adaptation, intermountain admixture and shallow genetic structuring in the giant senecios (Dendrosenecio)

Distantly related lineages of the enigmatic giant rosette plants of tropical alpine environments provide classical examples of convergent adaptation. For the giant senecios (Dendrosenecio), the endemic landmarks of the East African sky islands, it has also been suggested that parallel adaptation has been important for within-lineage differentiation. To test this hypothesis and to address potential gene flow and hybridization among the isolated sky islands, we organized field expeditions to all major mountains. We sampled all currently accepted species and all but one subspecies and genotyped 460 plants representing 109 populations. We tested whether genetic structuring corresponds to geography, as predicted by a parallel adaptation hypothesis, or to altitudinal belt and habitat rather than mountains, as predicted by a hypothesis of a single origin of adaptations. Bayesian and Neighbor-Net analyses showed that the main genetic structure is shallow and largely corresponds to geography, supporting a hypothesis of recent, rapid radiation via parallel altitude/habitat adaptation on different mountains. We also found evidence for intermountain admixture, suggesting several long-distance dispersals by wind across vast areas of unsuitable habitat. The combination of parallel adaptation, secondary contact, and hybridization may explain the complex patterns of morphological variation and the contradicting taxonomic treatments of these rare enigmatic giants, supporting the use of wide taxonomic concepts. Notably, the within-population genetic diversity was very low and calls for increased conservation efforts.

Differences in species diversity, biomass, and soil properties of five types of alpine grasslands in the Northern Tibetan Plateau

Approximately 94% of the land area of the Northern Tibetan Plateau is covered by grasslands, which comprise one of five key livestock producing regions in China. In contrast to most other regions worldwide, these alpine grasslands are much more sensitive to global climate change, thus they are under intense study. The differences in species diversity, plant biomass, and soil properties of five representative's alpine grassland types in the Northern Tibetan Plateau were investigated in this research. The results revealed that 11 community types were identified according to the importance of dominant species and constructive species. There were significant differences in the Margalef index (H), Simpson diversity index (D), Shannon-wiener diversity index (H'), and Pielou evenness index (J) indices between these five alpine grasslands. Further, the above-ground biomass (AGB), below-ground biomass (BGB), total biomass (TB), root:shoot (R/S) ratio, and coverage showed significant differences in 5 alpine grasslands. There were also considerable variations in the pH, total nitrogen concentration (TN), total phosphorus concentration (TP), soil organic carbon (SOC) and C-to-N ratio (C:N) among the five alpine grasslands. The highest value of biomass and soil characteristics was always in the alpine steppe (AS), or AM, while the lowest of that was in the alpine desert steppe (ADS), or alpine desert (AD). Moreover, there were significant differences in the soil particle size fractions between the five alpine grasslands. In the AM and AS, the dominant soil particle was clay, while in the alpine meadow-steppe (AMS), ADS, and AD it was fine and medium sand. Substantial correlations were found between the biomass and species diversity indices H, D or H' and soil TN, TP, or SOC. Moreover, silt had a significantly positive correlation with soil C:N, BGB, TB, and R/S, while medium sand and coarse sand was significant negatively correlated. With regard to these grassland types, it is proposed that the AM or AS may be an actively changing grassland types in the Northern Tibetan Plateau.

Species-specific effects of climate change on the distribution of suitable baboon habitats - Ecological niche modeling of current and Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Baboons (genus Papio) have been proposed as a possible analogous phylogeographic model for intra-African dispersal of hominins during the Pleistocene. Previous studies of the genus reveal complex evolutionary dynamics including introgressive hybridization and, as for hominins, it has been hypothesized that past climate change has been a major driver in their evolutionary history. However, how historical climate changes affected the distribution and extent of baboon habitats is not clear. We therefore employed three ecological niche modeling algorithms (maximum entropy model: MaxEnt; general additive model: GAM; gradient boosting model: GBM) to map suitable habitat of baboons at both genus and species levels under two extreme late-Quaternary climates: current (warm period) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, cold period). The three model algorithms predicted habitat suitabilities for the baboon species with high accuracy, as indicated by AUC values of 0.83-0.85 at genus level and ≥0.90 for species. The results suggest that climate change from LGM to current affected the distribution and extent of suitable habitats for the genus Papio only slightly (>80% of the habitat remained suitable). However, and in contrast to our expectation for ecological generalists, individual species have been differentially affected. While P. ursinus and P. anubis lost some of their suitable habitats (net loss 25.5% and 13.3% respectively), P. kindae and P. papio gained large portions (net gain >62%), and P. cynocephalus and P. hamadryas smaller portions (net gain >20%). Overlap among the specific realized climate niches remained small, suggesting only slight overlap of suitable habitat among species. Results of our study further suggest that shifts of suitable habitats could have led to isolation and reconnection of populations which most likely affected gene flow among them. The impact of historic climate changes on baboon habitats might have been similar for other savanna living species, such as hominins.

Effects of climate change on alpine plants and their pollinators

Alpine environments are among the habitats most strongly affected by climate change, and consequently their unique plants and pollinators are faced with the challenge of adapting or going extinct. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect snowpack and snowmelt, resulting in changes in the growing season in this environment where plant growth and pollinator activity are constrained to the snow-free season, which can vary significantly across the landscape if there is significant topographic complexity. As in other ecosystems, the resulting changes in phenology are not uniform among species, creating the potential for altered and new interspecific interactions. New plant and animal species are arriving as lower altitude species move up with warming temperatures, introducing new competitors and generating changes in plant-pollinator interactions. Repeating historical surveys, taking advantage of museum collections, and using new technology will facilitate our understanding of how plants and pollinators are responding to the changing alpine environment.

Fernández de Castro A, Seguí J, Traveset A, Sosa PA. Alpine species in dynamic insular ecosystems through time: conservation genetics and niche shift estimates of the endemic and vulnerable Viola cheiranthifolia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alpine oceanic ecosystems are considered amongst the most ephemeral and restricted habitats, with a biota highly vulnerable to climate changes and disturbances. As an example of an alpine insular endemic, the past and future population genetic structure and diversity, and the future distribution of Viola cheiranthifolia (Violaceae), endemic to Tenerife (Canary Islands), were estimated. The main goals were to predict distribution changes of this alpine oceanic plant under climate change, and to assist in actions for its conservation.

METHODS

To perform population genetic analysis, 14 specific microsatellite markers and algorithms which considered the polyploid condition of V. cheiranthifolia were employed. The niche modelling approach incorporated temperature gradients, topography and snow cover maps. Models were projected into climate change scenarios to assess the extent of the altitudinal shifts of environmental suitability. Finally, simulations were performed to predict whether the environmental suitability loss will affect the genetic diversity of populations.

KEY RESULTS

Viola cheiranthifolia presents short dispersal capacity, moderate levels of genetic diversity and a clear population genetic structure divided into two main groups (Teide and Las Cañadas Wall), showing signs of recolonization dynamics after volcanic eruptions. Future estimates of the distribution of the study populations also showed that, despite being extremely vulnerable to climate change, the species will not lose all its potential area in the next decades. The simulations to estimate genetic diversity loss show that it is correlated to suitability loss, especially in Las Cañadas Wall.

CONCLUSIONS

The low dispersal capacity of V. cheiranthifolia, coupled with herbivory pressure, mainly from rabbits, will make its adaptation to future climate conditions in this fragile alpine ecosystem difficult. Conservation actions should be focused on herbivore control, population reinforcement and surveillance of niche shifts, especially in Guajara, which represents the oldest isolated population and a genetic reservoir for the species.

The Relic Trochodendron aralioides Siebold & Zucc. (Trochodendraceae) in Taiwan: Ensemble Distribution Modeling and Climate Change Impacts

Trochodendron aralioides Siebold & Zuccarini (Trochodendraceae) is a famous relic tree species. Understanding the comprehensive spatial distribution and likely impacts of climate change on T. aralioides in its main habitat—Taiwan—is of great importance. We collected occurrence data and bioclimatic data to predict the current and future (year 2050) distribution by ensemble distribution modeling on the BIOMOD2 platform. Visualization of occurrence point data revealed that the main population of T. aralioides was concentrated at medium altitudes and extended to both ends of Taiwan, being especially rich in the northern low mountains. A similar distribution pattern of occurrence probability was shown by ensemble prediction of the true skill statistic >0.8 models. Comparing the current and future distribution of T. aralioides, the overlay analysis with profile display demonstrated spatial turnover that revealed a discrepancy between different latitudes and altitudes. In the future climate, T. aralioides at the middle altitudes of central Taiwan could migrate upward, but its population in northern Taiwan could lose most of its habitat. Consequently, T. aralioides in the low mountains of northern Taiwan could be particularly in need of further conservation research, which is urgently required to mitigate climate change impacts.

Vegetation trends over eleven years on mountain summits in NW Argentina

As global climate change leads to warmer and dryer conditions in the central Andes, alpine plant communities are forced to upward displacements following their climatic niche. Species range shifts are predicted to have major impacts on alpine communities by reshuffling species composition and abundances. Using a standardized protocol, we surveyed alpine plant communities in permanent plots on four high Andean summits in NW Argentina, which range from 4,040 to 4,740 m a.s.l. After a baseline survey in 2006-2008, we resurvey the same plots in 2012, and again in 2017. We found a significant decrease in plant cover, species richness, and diversity across the elevation gradient in the three censuses and a strong decrease in soil temperature along the elevation gradient. We found a high plant community turnover (37%-49%) among censuses, differentiating according to summits and aspects; major changes of community turnover were observed in the lowest summit (49%) and on the northern (47%) and western (46%) aspects. Temporal patterns in community changes were represented by increases in plant cover in the highest summit, in species richness in the lower summit, and in diversity (Shannon index) in the four summits, over time, together with increase in small herbs and non-tussock grasses. We suggest that the observed trend in plant community dynamics responds to short-term temperature and precipitation variability, which is influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and due to time lags in plant community response, it may take much longer than one decade for the observed trends to become stables and statistically significant. Our study provides an important foundation for documenting more profound changes in these subtropical alpine plant communities as global climate change continues.

A tale of two forests: ongoing aridification drives population decline and genetic diversity loss at continental scale in Afro-Macaronesian evergreen-forest archipelago endemics

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various studies and conservationist reports have warned about the contraction of the last subtropical Afro-Macaronesian forests. These relict vegetation zones have been restricted to a few oceanic and continental islands around the edges of Africa, due to aridification. Previous studies on relict species have generally focused on glacial effects on narrow endemics; however, little is known about the effects of aridification on the fates of previously widespread subtropical lineages.

METHODS

Nuclear microsatellites and ecological niche modelling were used to understand observed patterns of genetic diversity in two emblematic species, widely distributed in these ecosystems: Canarina eminii (a palaeoendemic of the eastern Afromontane forests) and Canarina canariensis (a palaeoendemic of the Canarian laurel forests). The software DIYABC was used to test alternative demographic scenarios and an ensemble method was employed to model potential distributions of the selected plants from the end of the deglaciation to the present.

KEY RESULTS

All the populations assessed experienced a strong and recent population decline, revealing that locally widespread endemisms may also be alarmingly threatened.

CONCLUSIONS

The detected extinction debt, as well as the extinction spiral to which these populations are subjected, demands urgent conservation measures for the unique, biodiversity-rich ecosystems that they inhabit.

Phylogeography, mitochondrial DNA diversity, and demographic history of geladas (Theropithecus gelada)

The large-bodied, terrestrial primates in the tribe Papionini are among the most intensely studied animals in the world, yet for some members of this tribe we know comparatively little about their evolutionary history and phylogeography. Geladas (Theropithecus gelada Rüppell, 1835), endemic primates of the Ethiopian highlands, are largely unstudied both in genetic diversity and intrageneric phylogeny. Currently, a northern and central subspecies and one isolated southern population are recognized, of which the central is classified as Least Concern, the northern as Vulnerable, and the southern is not yet assessed. The distribution and taxonomy of the subspecies remain poorly defined. Here, we estimate the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity and phylogenetic relationships among gelada mtDNA lineages based on samples across the entire species range. We analysed 1.7 kb-long sequences of the mtDNA genome, spanning the cytochrome b gene and the hypervariable region I of the D-loop, derived from 162 faecal samples. We detected five major haplogroups or clades (south, central-1, central-2, north-1, north-2) which diverged between 0.67 and 0.43 million years ago, thus suggesting a rapid radiation, resulting in largely unresolved intrageneric phylogenetic relationships. Both, the northern and central demes contain two similarly valid haplogroups, each with little or no geographic segregation among respective haplogroups. Effective population sizes of the northern and central demes decreased during and after the last glacial maximum but remained stable for the southern deme, although on a very low level. The distribution of haplogroups within the geographic ranges of the putative gelada subspecies indicates that mtDNA sequence information does not allow reliable taxonomic inferences and thus is not sufficient for solving the taxonomic rank of the three demic populations, with the possible exception of the southern population. Nevertheless, due to the genetic differences all three populations deserve conservation efforts, in particular the smallest southern population.

Good-bye to tropical alpine plant giants under warmer climates? Loss of range and genetic diversity in Lobelia rhynchopetalum

The main aim of this paper is to address consequences of climate warming on loss of habitat and genetic diversity in the enigmatic tropical alpine giant rosette plants using the Ethiopian endemic Lobelia rhynchopetalum as a model. We modeled the habitat suitability of L. rhynchopetalum and assessed how its range is affected under two climate models and four emission scenarios. We used three statistical algorithms calibrated to represent two different complexity levels of the response. We analyzed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms and assessed the impact of the projected range loss. Under all model and scenario combinations and consistent across algorithms and complexity levels, this afro-alpine flagship species faces massive range reduction. Only 3.4% of its habitat seems to remain suitable on average by 2,080, resulting in loss of 82% (CI 75%-87%) of its genetic diversity. The remaining suitable habitat is projected to be fragmented among and reduced to four mountain peaks, further deteriorating the probability of long-term sustainability of viable populations. Because of the similar morphological and physiological traits developed through convergent evolution by tropical alpine giant rosette plants in response to diurnal freeze-thaw cycles, they most likely respond to climate change in a similar way as our study species. We conclude that specialized high-alpine giant rosette plants, such as L. rhynchopetalum, are likely to face very high risk of extinction following climate warming.