Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.)

Influence of heterospecifics on mesocarnivore behaviour at shared scavenging opportunities in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

In seasonal environments, the ability of mustelid species to acquire carrion-a dietary resource heavily depended upon-is driven by a collection local habitat characteristics and competition dynamics. In resource-scarce winter, sympatric mesocarnivores must balance energetic rewards of carrion with avoiding antagonistic interactions with conspecifics. We examined scavenging interactions among three mustelid species in the northern Canadian Rocky Mountains. Camera traps (n = 59) were baited with carrion during winter between 2006 to 2008. Spatial and temporal dimensions of scavenger behaviour (i.e., carcass use) were evaluated using a multi-model approach, which enabled us to recognize potentially adaptive behavioural mechanisms for mitigating competition at carcass sites. Best performing models indicated that carrion site use is governed by a combination of competition threats and environmental factors. A decrease in scavenging with increasing snow depth was observed across all species. Mustelids adopted a host of adaptive behavioural strategies to access shared scavenging opportunities. We found evidence that wolverine (Gulo gulo) and American marten (Martes americana) segregate in space but temporally tracked one another. Short-tailed weasel (Mustela erminea) scavenging decreased with greater site use by marten. Carcass availability across a spatially complex environment, as well as spatial-temporal avoidance strategies, can facilitate carrion resource partitioning.

Climatic conditions limit wolverine distribution in the Cascade Range of southwestern North America

Recolonization of the Cascade Range in southern British Columbia, Canada, and Washington, USA, by wolverines ( Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) is an ongoing process whose ultimate outcome is unknown. A reliable species distribution model for the wolverine in the Cascades (i.e., their first-order habitat selection) is urgently needed to help inform management and conservation strategies. Using Argos location data obtained on 10 resident adult wolverines (six females, four males) from 2008 to 2016, we generated a multi-covariate species distribution model for the wolverine in the Cascades. Our final model included three climatic covariates and their quadratic terms: Proximity to the Transitional Zone Near Alpine Tree Line, Number of Frost-free Days per Year, and Annual Precipitation as Snow. Model validations indicated that our model was robust and could identify areas of potential wolverine distribution in the Cascades reliably. Our model provides evidence that wolverine distribution in the Cascades is constrained by climatic conditions and that snowy and cold environments define the geographic areas that are overwhelmingly associated with resident wolverines. In addition, our model provides a reliable basis for monitoring the direct effects of climate change on wolverines in the Cascade Range and for predicting the extent to which climate change may impact their populations under various scenarios.

Colour moult phenology and camouflage mismatch in polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes

Species that seasonally moult from brown to white to match snowy backgrounds become conspicuous and experience increased predation risk as snow cover duration declines. Long-term adaptation to camouflage mismatch in a changing climate might occur through phenotypic plasticity in colour moult phenology and or evolutionary shifts in moult rate or timing. Also, adaptation may include evolutionary shifts towards winter brown phenotypes that forgo the winter white moult. Most studies of these processes have occurred in winter white populations, with little attention to polymorphic populations with sympatric winter brown and winter white morphs. Here, we used remote camera traps to record moult phenology and mismatch in two polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes in Sweden over 2 years. We found that the colder, more northern population moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring. Next, foxes moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring during colder and snowier years. Finally, white foxes experienced relatively low camouflage mismatch while blue foxes were mismatched against snowy backgrounds most of the autumn through the spring. Because the brown-on-white mismatch imposes no evident costs, we predict that as snow duration decreases, increasing blue morph frequencies might help facilitate species persistence.

Protection status, human disturbance, snow cover and trapping drive density of a declining wolverine population in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Protected areas are important in species conservation, but high rates of human-caused mortality outside their borders and increasing popularity for recreation can negatively affect wildlife populations. We quantified wolverine (Gulo gulo) population trends from 2011 to 2020 in > 14,000 km2 protected and non-protected habitat in southwestern Canada. We conducted wolverine and multi-species surveys using non-invasive DNA and remote camera-based methods. We developed Bayesian integrated models combining spatial capture-recapture data of marked and unmarked individuals with occupancy data. Wolverine density and occupancy declined by 39%, with an annual population growth rate of 0.925. Density within protected areas was 3 times higher than outside and declined between 2011 (3.6 wolverines/1000 km2) and 2020 (2.1 wolverines/1000 km2). Wolverine density and detection probability increased with snow cover and decreased near development. Detection probability also decreased with human recreational activity. The annual harvest rate of ≥ 13% was above the maximum sustainable rate. We conclude that humans negatively affected the population through direct mortality, sub-lethal effects and habitat impacts. Our study exemplifies the need to monitor population trends for species at risk-within and between protected areas-as steep declines can occur unnoticed if key conservation concerns are not identified and addressed.

Evaluating the Cumulative Effects of Livestock Grazing on Wildlife With an Integrated Population Model

Livestock grazing can shape temperate grassland ecosystems, with both positive and negative effects on wildlife documented depending on a variety of grazing and site factors. Historically, research investigating the impacts of livestock grazing on wildlife has been limited by a narrow focus on simple “grazed” vs. “ungrazed” treatments or examining how grazing affects only a single vital rate in isolation. To overcome these limitations, we used a two-stage class, female-based integrated population model (IPM) to examine whether three grazing management regimes (season-long, rest-rotation, and summer rotation) differentially impacted population growth rates of sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanachus phasianellus) in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. We estimated 14 vital rates related to survival and fecundity and examined whether subtle cumulative effects of livestock grazing were present but not detected in prior analyses focused on single vital rates. While the management regimes did not differentially impact survival or fecundity of female grouse in our study system, we found evidence for significant cumulative impacts of grazing regime on population growth rates that were only apparent when all vital rates were evaluated concurrently. Population growth rates were higher in areas managed with season-long livestock grazing. The IPM framework encourages comprehensive investigations into the influence of covariates on critical components of species life histories and can assist in guiding management decisions in a world of limited resources. This integrated approach allowed us to more efficiently use multiple data types to provide a more complete picture of the effects of management on an important indicator species.

Community-level modelling of boreal forest mammal distribution in an oil sands landscape

Anthropogenic landscape disturbances are known to alter, destroy, and fragment habitat, which typically leads to biodiversity loss. The effects of landscape disturbance generally vary among species and depend on the nature of the disturbances, which may interact and result in synergistic effects. Western Canada's oil sands region experiences disturbances from forestry and energy sector activities as well as municipal and transportation infrastructure. The effects of those disturbances on single species have been studied and have been implicated in declines of the boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Yet, the specific responses of the mammal community, and of functional groups such as prey and predators, to those interacting disturbances are still poorly known. We investigated the responses of black bear, grey wolf, coyote, fisher, lynx, red fox, American red squirrel, white-tailed deer, moose, caribou, and snowshoe hare to both natural habitat and disturbance associated with anthropogenic features within Alberta's northeast boreal forest. We used a novel community-level modelling framework on three years of camera-trap data collected in an oil sands landscape. This framework allowed us to identify the natural and anthropogenic features which explained the most variation in occurrence frequency among functional groups, as well as compare responses to linear and non-linear anthropogenic disturbance. Occurrence frequency by predators was better explained by anthropogenic features than by natural habitat. Both linear and non-linear anthropogenic features helped explain occurrence frequency by prey and predators, although the effects differed in magnitude and spatial scale. To better conserve boreal biodiversity, management actions should extend beyond a focus on caribou and wolves and aim to restore habitat across a diversity of anthropogenic disturbances and monitor the dynamics of the entire mammal community.

Indigenous-led camera-trap research on traditional territories informs conservation decisions for resource extraction

The resource extraction that powers global economies is often manifested in Indigenous Peoples’ territories. Indigenous Peoples living on the land are careful observers of resulting biodiversity changes, and Indigenous-led research can provide evidence to inform conservation decisions. In the Nearctic western boreal forest, landscape change from forest harvesting and petroleum extraction is intensive and extensive. A First Nations community in the Canadian oil sands co-created camera-trap research to explore observations of presumptive species declines, seeking to identify the relative contributions of different industrial sectors to changes in mammal distributions. Camera data were analyzed via generalized linear models in a model-selection approach. Multiple forestry and petroleum extraction features positively and negatively affected boreal mammal species. Pipelines had the greatest negative effect size (for wolves), whereas well sites had a large positive effect size for multiple species, suggesting the energy sector as a target for co-management. Co-created research reveals spatial relationships of disturbance, prey, and predators on Indigenous traditional territories. It provides hypotheses, tests, and interpretations unique to outside perspectives; Indigenous participation in conservation management of their territories scales up to benefit global biodiversity conservation.

Assessing the effectiveness of a national protected area network for carnivore conservation

Protected areas (PAs) are essential to prevent further biodiversity loss yet their effectiveness varies largely with governance and external threats. Although methodological advances have permitted assessments of PA effectiveness in mitigating deforestation, we still lack similar studies for the impact of PAs on wildlife populations. Here we use an innovative combination of matching methods and hurdle-mixed models with a large-scale and long-term dataset for Finland's large carnivore species. We show that the national PA network does not support higher densities than non-protected habitat for 3 of the 4 species investigated. For some species, PA effects interact with region or time, i.e., wolverine densities decreased inside PAs over the study period and lynx densities increased inside eastern PAs. We support the application of matching methods in combination of additional analytical frameworks for deeper understanding of conservation impacts on wildlife populations. These methodological advances are crucial for preparing ambitious PA targets post-2020.

Influences of landscape change and winter severity on invasive ungulate persistence in the Nearctic boreal forest

Climate and landscape change are drivers of species range shifts and biodiversity loss; understanding how they facilitate and sustain invasions has been empirically challenging. Winter severity is decreasing with climate change and is a predicted mechanism of contemporary and future range shifts. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) expansion is a continental phenomenon across the Nearctic with ecological consequences for entire biotic communities. We capitalized on recent temporal variation in winter severity to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of invasive deer distribution in the Nearctic boreal forest. We hypothesized deer distribution would decrease in severe winters reflecting historical climate constraints, and remain more static in moderate winters reflecting recent climate. Further, we predicted that regardless of winter severity, deer distribution would persist and be best explained by early seral forage subsidies from extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We applied dynamic occupancy models in time, and species distribution models in space, to data from 62 camera traps sampled over 3 years in northeastern Alberta, Canada. Deer distribution shrank more markedly in severe winters but rebounded each spring regardless of winter severity. Deer distribution was best explained by anthropogenic landscape features assumed to provide early seral vegetation subsidy, accounting for natural landcover. We conclude that deer dynamics in the northern boreal forest are influenced both by landscape change across space and winter severity through time, the latter expected to further decrease with climate change. We contend that the combined influence of these two drivers is likely pervasive for many species, with changing resources offsetting or augmenting physiological limitations.

Low wolverine (Gulo gulo) density in a national park complex of the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Large carnivores are sensitive to human-caused extirpation due to large home ranges, low population densities, and low reproductive rates. Protected areas help maintain populations by acting as sources, but human-caused mortality, habitat displacement, and edge effects occurring at protected area boundaries may reduce that function. The national parks Banff, Yoho, and Kootenay in the Canadian Rocky Mountains are refugia for large carnivores, including wolverines (Gulo gulo (Linnaeus, 1758)). Despite growing conservation concern, empirical baseline population data for wolverines remain scarce throughout their range, including most of Canada. We hypothesized (i) that in these national parks, wolverine density matched values expected for high-quality habitat, and (ii) that edge effects decreased density towards park boundaries. We conducted systematic non-invasive genetic sampling surveys covering >7000 km2 (2011 and 2013). Using spatial capture–recapture models, we estimated mean (±SE) female (1.5 ± 0.3 and 1.4 ± 0.3 wolverine/1000 km2), male (1.8 ± 0.4 and 1.5 ± 0.3 wolverine/1000 km2), and combined (3.3 ± 0.5 and 3.0 ± 0.4 wolverine/1000 km2) densities for 2011 and 2013, respectively. These estimates were lower than predictions based on density extrapolation from nearby high-quality habitat, and density decreased towards park boundaries. To benefit the population, we recommend creating buffer zones around parks that protect female habitat and prohibit harvest.

Landscape genetics of wolverines (Gulo gulo): scale-dependent effects of bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables

Climate change can have particularly severe consequences for high-elevation species that are well-adapted to long-lasting snow conditions within their habitats. One such species is the wolverine, Gulo gulo, with several studies showing a strong, year-round association of the species with the area defined by persistent spring snow cover. This bioclimatic niche also predicts successful dispersal paths for wolverines in the contiguous United States, where the species shows low levels of genetic exchange and low effective population size. Here, we assess the influence of additional climatic, vegetative, topographic, and anthropogenic, variables on wolverine genetic structure in this region using a multivariate, multiscale, landscape genetic approach. This approach allows us to detect landscape-genetic relationships both due to typical, small-scale genetic exchange within habitat, as well as exceptional, long-distance dispersal among habitats. Results suggest that a combination of snow depth, terrain ruggedness, and housing density, best predict gene flow in wolverines, and that the relative importance of variables is scale-dependent. Environmental variables (i.e., isolation-by-resistance, IBR) were responsible for 79% of the explained variation at small scales (i.e., up to ~230 km), and 65% at broad scales (i.e., beyond ~420 km). In contrast, a null model based on only space (i.e., isolation-by-distance, IBD) accounted only for 17% and 11% of the variation at small and broad scales, respectively. Snow depth was the most important variable for predicting genetic structures overall, and at small scales, where it contributed 43% to the variance explained. At broad spatial scales, housing density and terrain ruggedness were most important with contributions to explained variation of 55% and 25%, respectively. While the small-scale analysis most likely captures gene flow within typical wolverine habitat complexes, the broad-scale analysis reflects long-distance dispersal across areas not typically inhabited by wolverines. These findings help to refine our understanding of the processes shaping wolverine genetic structure, which is important for maintaining and improving functional connectivity among remaining wolverine populations.

Spatial and temporal relationship between native mammals and free-roaming dogs in a protected area surrounded by a metropolis

With rapid urbanization worldwide, anthropogenic impacts such as human settlements and invasive carnivores (dogs Canis familiaris, cats Felis catus) are altering spatial distributions and temporal activity patterns of native species. In this study, we focused on spatiotemporal responses of native mammals to anthropogenic impacts in a protected area surrounded by a large metropolis (i.e. Yangmingshan National Park inside Taipei-Keelung metropolis in northern Taiwan). We collected site use data of 11 mammal species (i.e. dogs, cats, nine native species) between 2012 and 2017 with a camera system comprising 121 camera sites. We quantified anthropogenic disturbances as distance to human settlements and activity levels of free-roaming dogs and cats. Species richness and occurrences of the native mammals increased with increasing distances to human settlements and decreasing activity level of dogs, with the latter having a stronger effect than the former. Diel activity overlap between native mammals and dogs was lower during April–July season, coinciding with the breeding season for several native mammals. In contrast, activity level of cats showed no relationships with species richness, occurrences or diel activities of the native mammals. This study demonstrated negative impacts of human settlements and free-roaming dogs on native mammal communities for protected areas in urban environments, and highlights dog activity as a major anthropogenic threat to wildlife.

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.)

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human‐derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large‐scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species’ local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines (Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km² gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack—expected to decrease with climate change—was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.