Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

Spatially explicit predictions of food web structure from regional-level data

Knowledge about how ecological networks vary across global scales is currently limited given the complexity of acquiring repeated spatial data for species interactions. Yet, recent developments in metawebs highlight efficient ways to first document possible interactions within regional species pools. Downscaling metawebs towards local network predictions is a promising approach to using the current data to investigate the variation of networks across space. However, issues remain in how to represent the spatial variability and uncertainty of species interactions, especially for large-scale food webs. Here, we present a probabilistic framework to downscale a metaweb based on the Canadian mammal metaweb and species occurrences from global databases. We investigated how our approach can be used to represent the variability of networks and communities between ecoregions in Canada. Species richness and interactions followed a similar latitudinal gradient across ecoregions but simultaneously identified contrasting diversity hotspots. Network motifs revealed additional areas of variation in network structure compared with species richness and number of links. Our method offers the potential to bring global predictions down to a more actionable local scale, and increases the diversity of ecological networks that can be projected in space. This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Ranavirus and helminth parasite co-infection in invasive American bullfrogs in the Atlantic forest, Brazil

Emerging infectious diseases threaten amphibian species across the globe. In Brazil, the American bullfrog (Aquarana catesbeiana) is a highly invasive species that can potentially transmit parasites and pathogens to native amphibians. This is the first assessment of co-infection of Ranavirus and helminth macroparasites in invasive populations of bullfrogs in South America. We collected, measured, and euthanized 65 specimens of A. catesbeiana sampled from 9 sites across three states of Brazil in the Atlantic Forest biome. We collected and identified helminth macroparasites and sampled host liver tissue to test for the presence and load of Ranavirus with quantitative PCR. We documented patterns of prevalence, parasite load, and co-infection with generalized linear mixed models, generalized logistic regressions, and randomization tests. Most individual bullfrogs did not exhibit clinical signs of infection, but the overall Ranavirus prevalence was 27% (95% confidence interval, [CI 17-38]). Bullfrogs were infected with helminth macroparasites from 5 taxa. Co-infection of helminth macroparasites and Ranavirus was also common (21% CI [12-31]). Bullfrog size was positively correlated with total macroparasite abundance and richness, and the best-fitting model included a significant interaction between bullfrog size and Ranavirus infection status. We observed a negative correlation between Ranavirus viral load and nematode abundance (slope = -0.22, P = 0.03). Invasive bullfrogs (A. catesbeiana) in Brazil were frequently infected with both Ranavirus and helminth macroparasites, so adult bullfrogs could serve as reservoir hosts for both pathogens and parasites. However, many macroparasites collected were encysted and not developing. Coinfection patterns suggest a potential interaction between Ranavirus and macroparasites because helminth abundance increased with bullfrog size but was lower in Ranavirus infected individuals. Future studies of bullfrogs in the Atlantic Forest should investigate their potential role in pathogen and parasite transmission to native anurans.

Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

Climate change can affect species distribution patterns in three different ways: pushing them to disperse to new suitable areas, forcing them to adapt to novel climatic conditions, or driving them to extinction. However, the biological and geographical traits that lead to these different responses remain poorly explored. Here, we evaluated how ecological and biogeographic traits influence amphibians’ response to climate change. We performed a systematic review searching for studies that evaluated the effects of future climate change on amphibian’s distribution. Our research returned 31 articles that projected the distribution of 331 amphibians. Our results demonstrate that species inhabiting an elevation above 515 m will lose a significant portion of their climatically suitable area. We also found that as isothermality increases, the amount of area suitable in response to climate change also increases. Another important discovery was that as the size of the baseline area increases, the greater must be the loss of climatically suitable areas. On the other hand, species with very small areas tend to keep their current climatically suitable area in the future. Furthermore, our results indicate that species that inhabit dry habitats tend to expand their suitable area in response to climate change. This result can be explained by the environmental characteristics of these habitats, which tend to present extreme seasonal climates with well-defined periods of drought and rain. We also found that anurans that inhabit exclusively forests are projected to lose a greater portion of their suitable areas, when compared to species that inhabit both forest and open areas, wetlands, and dry and rupestrian environments. The biogeographical realm also influenced anuran’s range shifts, with Afrotropic and Nearctic species projected to expand their geographical ranges. The assessment of climate change effects on amphibian distribution has been the focus of a growing number of studies. Despite this, some regions and species remain underrepresented. Current literature evaluates about 4% of the 7,477 species of Anura and 8% of the 773 species of Caudata and some regions rich in amphibian species remain severely underrepresented, such as Madagascar. Thus, future studies should focus on regions and taxas that remain underrepresented.

How do distribution mapping methods perform in estimating beta diversity at macroecological scales? A case study with Neotropical anurans

Species distribution mapping methods have their advantages and limitations concerning their use on theoretical and/or applied macroecological approaches. However, it remains underexplored how the estimates of community ecology metrics vary across the distributions generated by different mapping methods. Here, we mapped the distribution patterns of the anuran beta diversity in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado hotspots generated by three mapping methods: point-to-grid (PTG), extent-of-occurrence (EOO), and ecological niche modelling (ENM) maps, so we were able to compare the congruence of the local contribution to beta diversity index (LCBD) among them, as well as their turnover and nestedness components. PTGs generated the most divergent LCBD values probably due to the more resolved spatial scale in which species' presence are considered, so EEO and ENM generated similar beta diversity estimates for both hotspots. High LCBD values in the Cerrado were recorded in ecotone regions, whereas in the Atlantic Forest the highest beta diversity values were found along the Atlantic coast. The structure of beta diversity of PTG showed way too high values of importance for the turnover component compared to the EEO and ENM maps, which also recorded higher importance for the turnover than for the nestedness component.

Spatial heterogeneity of tree diversity response to climate warming in montane forests

Many studies reported biotic change along a continental warming gradient. However, the temporal and spatial change of tree diversity and their sensitivity to climate warming might differ from region to region. Understanding of the variation among studies with regard to the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal, especially in montane ecosystems. Our aim is to better understand changes in spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of mountain tree communities under climate warming over the past four decades. In 2017, we resurveyed and recorded all tree species from 107 long-term monitoring plots that were first studied between 1974 and 1976. These plots were located in montane forests in the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP), China. Our results showed that spatial differences were found in tree species diversity changes response to mean annual temperature change over the past four decades. Tree species richness increased significantly under climate warming in Minshan (MS) and Xiaoxiangling (XXL) with higher warming rate than Qionglai (QLS) and Liangshan (LS). The trees species diversity in MS and XXL were more sensitive to climatic warming. MS and XXL should receive priority protection in the next conservation plan of the GPNP. The GPNP should avoid taking a "one-size-fits-all" approach for diversity conservation due to spatial heterogeneity in plant community dynamics.

Stream fish metacommunity organisation across a Neotropical ecoregion: The role of environment, anthropogenic impact and dispersal-based processes

Understanding how assemblages are structured in space and the factors promoting their distributions is one of the main goals in Ecology, however, studies regarding the distribution of organisms at larger scales remain biased towards terrestrial groups. We attempt to understand if the structure of stream fish metacommunities across a Neotropical ecoregion (Upper Paraná-drainage area of 820,000 km2) are affected by environmental variables, describing natural environmental gradient, anthropogenic impacts and spatial predictors. For this, we obtained 586 sampling points of fish assemblages in the ecoregion and data on environmental and spatial predictors that potentially affect fish assemblages. We calculated the local beta diversity (Local Contribution to Beta Diversity, LCBD) and alpha diversity from the species list, to be used as response variables in the partial regression models, while the anthropogenic impacts, environmental gradient and spatial factors were used as predictors. We found a high total beta diversity for the ecoregion (0.41) where the greatest values for each site sampled were located at the edges of the ecoregion, while richer communities were found more centrally. All sets of predictors explained the LCBD and alpha diversity, but the most important was dispersal variables, followed by the natural environmental gradient and anthropogenic impact. However, we found an increase in the models' prediction power through the shared effect. Results suggest that environmental filters (i.e. environmental variables such as climate, hydrology and anthropogenic impact) and dispersal limitation together shape fish assemblages of the Upper Paraná ecoregion, showing the importance of using multiple sets of predictors to understand the processes structuring biodiversity distribution.