Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?

The incredible shrinking puffin: Decreasing size and increasing proportional bill size of Atlantic puffins nesting at Machias Seal Island

Climate change imposes physiological constraints on organisms particularly through changing thermoregulatory requirements. Bergmann's and Allen's rules suggest that body size and the size of thermoregulatory structures differ between warm and cold locations, where body size decreases with temperature and thermoregulatory structures increase. However, phenotypic plastic responses to malnutrition during development can result in the same patterns while lacking fitness benefits. The Gulf of Maine (GOM), located at the southern end of the Labrador current, is warming faster than most of the world's oceans, and many of the marine species that occupy these waters exist at the southern edge of their distributions including Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica; hereafter "puffin"). Monitoring of puffins in the GOM, at Machias Seal Island (MSI), has continued annually since 1995. We asked whether changes in adult puffin body size and the proportional size of bill to body have changed with observed rapid ocean warming. We found that the size of fledgling puffins is negatively related to sea surface temperature anomalies (warm conditions = small fledgers), adult puffin size is related to fledgling size (small fledgers = small adults), and adult puffins have decreased in size in recent years in response to malnutrition during development. We found an increase in the proportional size of bill to wing chord, likely in response to some mix of malnutrition during development and increasing air temperatures. Although studies have assessed clinal variation in seabird morphology with temperature, this is the first study addressing changes in seabird morphology in relation to ocean warming. Our results suggest that puffins nesting in the GOM have morphological plasticity that may help them acclimate to ocean warming.

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves

As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

The role of thermal tolerance in determining elevational distributions of four arthropod taxa in mountain ranges of southern Asia

Understanding the role of thermal tolerances in determining species distributions is important for assessing species responses to climate change. Two hypotheses linking physiology with species distributions have been put forward-the climatic variability hypothesis and the climatic extreme hypothesis. The climatic variability hypothesis predicts the selection of individuals with broad thermal tolerance in more variable climatic conditions and the climatic extreme hypothesis predicts the selection of individuals with extreme thermal tolerance values under extreme climatic conditions. However, no study has tested the predictions of these hypotheses simultaneously for several taxonomic groups along elevational gradients. Here, we related experimentally measured critical thermal maxima, critical thermal minima and thermal tolerance breadths for 15,187 individuals belonging to 116 species of ants, beetles, grasshoppers, and spiders from mountain ranges in central and northern Pakistan to the limits and breadths of their geographic and temperature range. Across all species and taxonomic groups, we found strong relationships between thermal traits and elevational distributions both in terms of geography and temperature. The relationships were robust when repeating the analyses for ants, grasshoppers, and spiders but not for beetles. These results indicate a strong role of physiology in determining elevational distributions of arthropods in Southern Asia. Overall, we found strong support for the climatic variability hypothesis and the climatic extreme hypothesis. A close association between species' distributional limits and their thermal tolerances suggest that in case of a failure to adapt or acclimate to novel climatic conditions, species may be under pressure to track their preferred climatic conditions, potentially facing serious consequences under current and future climate change.

Mutualisms in a warming world

Predicting the impacts of global warming on mutualisms poses a significant challenge given the functional and life history differences that usually exist among interacting species. However, this is a critical endeavour since virtually all species on Earth depend on other species for survival and/or reproduction. The field of thermal ecology can provide physiological and mechanistic insights, as well as quantitative tools, for addressing this challenge. Here, we develop a conceptual and quantitative framework that connects thermal physiology to species' traits, species' traits to interacting mutualists' traits and interacting traits to the mutualism. We first identify the functioning of reciprocal mutualism-relevant traits in diverse systems as the key temperature-dependent mechanisms driving the interaction. We then develop metrics that measure the thermal performance of interacting mutualists' traits and that approximate the thermal performance of the mutualism itself. This integrated approach allows us to additionally examine how warming might interact with resource/nutrient availability and affect mutualistic species' associations across space and time. We offer this framework as a synthesis of convergent and critical issues in mutualism science in a changing world, and as a baseline to which other ecological complexities and scales might be added.

Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and inflict massive economic costs. Effective management of bio-invasions depends on reliable predictions of areas at risk of invasion, as they allow early invader detection and rapid responses. Yet, considerable uncertainty remains as to how to predict best potential invasive distribution ranges. Using a set of mainly (sub)tropical birds introduced to Europe, we show that the true extent of the geographical area at risk of invasion can accurately be determined by using ecophysiological mechanistic models that quantify species' fundamental thermal niches. Potential invasive ranges are primarily constrained by functional traits related to body allometry and body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation. Given their capacity to identify tolerable climates outside of contemporary realized species niches, mechanistic predictions are well suited for informing effective policy and management aimed at preventing the escalating impacts of invasive species.

Potential Geographic Range of the Endangered Reed Parrotbill Paradoxornis heudei under Climate Change

The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and biodiversity, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China, it is mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the Northeast Plain. In this study, eight of ten algorithms of the species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. heudei under current and future climate scenarios and to analyze the possible related climate factors. After checking the collected data, 97 occurrence records of P. heudei were used. The relative contribution rate shows that among the selected climatic variables, temperature annual range (bio7), annual precipitation (bio12), and isothermality (bio3) were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. The suitable habitat for P. heudei is primarily concentrated in the central–eastern and northeast plains of China, particularly in the eastern coastal region, spanning a mere area of 57,841 km2. The habitat suitability of P. heudei under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios was predicted to be different under future climatic conditions, but all of them had a larger range than the current one. The species distribution range could expand by more than 100% on average compared with the current range under the four scenarios in 2050, while it could contract by approximately 30% on average relative to the 2050 range in 2070 under different climate change scenarios. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of P. heudei’s range are of utmost importance in identifying high-priority conservation regions and devising effective management strategies for its preservation.

The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair

Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.

Seasonal variation in thermoregulatory capacity of three closely related Afrotropical Estrildid finches introduced to Europe

A species' potential geographical range is largely determined by how the species responds physiologically to its changing environment. It is therefore crucial to study the physiological mechanisms that species use to maintain their homeothermy in order to address biodiversity conservation challenges, such as the success of invasions of introduced species. The common waxbill Estrilda astrild, the orange-cheeked waxbill E. melpoda, and the black-rumped waxbill E. troglodytes are small Afrotropical passerines that have established invasive populations in regions where the climate is colder than in their native ranges. As a result, they are highly suitable species for studying potential mechanisms for coping with a colder and more variable climate. Here, we investigated the magnitude and direction of seasonal variation in their thermoregulatory traits, such as basal (BMR), summit (M_sum) metabolic rates and thermal conductance. We found that, from summer to autumn, their ability to resist colder temperatures increased. This was not related to larger body masses or higher BMR and M_sum, but instead, species downregulated BMR and M_sum toward the colder season, suggesting energy conservation mechanisms to increase winter survival. BMR and M_sum were most strongly correlated with temperature variation in the week preceding the measurements. Common waxbill and black-rumped waxbill, whose native ranges encompass the highest degree of seasonality, showed the most flexibility in metabolic rates (i.e., stronger downregulation toward colder seasons). This ability to adjust thermoregulatory traits, combined with increased cold tolerance, may facilitate their establishment in areas characterized by colder winters and less predictable climates.

Obligatory homeothermy of mesic adapted African striped mice, Rhabdomys pumilio, is governed by seasonal basal metabolism and year-round "thermogenic readiness" of brown adipose tissue

Small mammals undergo thermoregulatory adjustments in response to changing environmental conditions. Whereas small heterothermic mammals can employ torpor to save energy in the cold, homeothermic species must increase heat production to defend normothermia through the recruitment of brown adipose tissue (BAT). Here, we studied thermoregulatory adaptation in an obligate homeotherm, the African striped mouse (Rhabdomys pumilio), captured from a subpopulation living in a mesic, temperate climate with marked seasonal differences. Basal metabolic rate (BMR), non-shivering thermogenesis (NST) and summit metabolic rate (MSUM) increased from summer to winter, with NST and MSUM already reaching maximal rates in autumn, suggesting seasonal preparation to the cold. Typical of rodents, cold-induced metabolic rates positively correlate with BAT mass. Analysis of cytochrome c oxidase (COX) activity and UCP1 content, however, demonstrate that thermogenic capacity declines with BAT mass. This resulted in seasonal differences in NST being driven by changes in BMR. The increase in BMR is supported by a comprehensive anatomical analysis of metabolically active organs, revealing increased mass proportions in the cold season. The thermoregulatory response of R. pumilio is associated with the maintenance of body weight throughout the year (48.3±1.4 g), contrasting large summer-winter mass reductions often observed in Holarctic rodents. Collectively, bioenergetic adaptation of this Afrotropical rodent involves seasonal organ adjustments influencing BMR, combined with a constant thermogenic capacity dictated by trade-offs in thermogenic properties of BAT. Arguably, this high degree of plasticity was a response to unpredictable cold spells throughout the year. Consequently, the reliance on such a resource intensive thermoregulatory strategy may expose more energetic vulnerability in changing environments of food scarcity and extreme weather conditions due to climate change, with major ramifications for survival of the species.

Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire-bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change

Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire-bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East-central China, which has been classified as near-threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km2. The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.

Predicted climate-induced reductions in scavenging in eastern North America

Scavenging is an important function within ecosystems where scavengers remove organic matter, reduce disease, stabilize food webs, and generally make ecosystems more resilient to environmental changes. Global change (i.e., changing climate and increasing human impact) is currently influencing scavenger communities. Thus, understanding what promotes species richness in scavenger communities can help prioritize management actions. Using a long-term dataset from camera traps deployed with animal carcasses as bait along a 1881 km latitudinal gradient in the Appalachian Mountains of eastern USA, we investigated the relative impact of climate and humans on the species richness and diversity of vertebrate scavengers. Our most supported models for both mammalian and avian scavengers included climatic, but not human, variables. The richness of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest during relatively warm (5-10°C) and dry (100-150 mm precipitation) winters, when food was likely limited and both reliance on and detection of carrion was high. The diversity of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest under drier conditions. We then used these results to project the future species richness of scavengers that would be detected within our sampling area and under the climate scenario of 2070 (emissions level RCP8.5). Our predictions suggest up to 80% and 67% reductions, respectively, in the richness of avian and mammalian scavengers that would be detected at baited sites. Climate-induced shifts in behavior (i.e., reduction in scavenging, even if present) at this scale could have cascading implications for ecosystem function, resilience, and human health. Further, our study highlights the importance of conducting studies of scavenger community dynamics within ecosystems across wide spatial gradients within temperate environments. More broadly, these findings build upon our understanding of the impacts of climate-induced adjustments in behavior that can likely have negative impacts on systems at a large scale.

Seasonal metabolic flexibility is correlated with microclimate variation in horned larks and house sparrows

Maximum and minimum metabolic rates in birds are flexible traits and such flexibility can be advantageous in variable climates. The climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) posits that more variable climates should result in greater metabolic flexibility for geographically distinct populations. Whether the CVH applies to sympatric species occupying microclimates differing in variability is unknown. Microclimates of open habitats are likely more variable than those of sheltered habitats. If the CVH extends to microclimates, we expect birds from open habitats to show greater flexibility than those from sheltered habitats. To test this extension of the CVH, we compared seasonal variation in microclimates and metabolic rates for sympatric horned larks Eremophila alpestris, which occupy open habitats, and house sparrows Passer domesticus, which occupy sheltered habitats. We measured operative temperature (T_e, an integrative measure of the thermal environment), summit metabolic rate (M_sum, maximal cold-induced metabolic rate), and basal metabolic rate (BMR, minimal maintenance metabolic rate) in summer and winter. For both winter and summer, daily minimum T_e was similar between open and sheltered habitats but maximum T_e was higher for open habitats. Winter microclimates, however, were colder for open than for sheltered habitats after accounting for convective differences. Both species increased M_sum in winter, but seasonal M_sum flexibility was greater for larks (43%) than for sparrows (31%). Winter increases in BMR were 92.5% and 11% for larks and sparrows, respectively, with only the former attaining statistical significance. Moreover, species * season interactions in general linear models for whole-organism metabolic rates were significant for BMR and showed a similar, although not significant, pattern for M_sum, with greater seasonal metabolic flexibility in horned larks than in house sparrows. These results suggest that extending the CVH to sympatric bird species occupying different microclimates may be valid.

Towards more integration of physiology, dispersal and land-use change to understand the responses of species to climate change

The accelerating biodiversity crisis, for which climate change has become an important driver, urges the scientific community for answers to the question of whether and how species are capable of responding successfully to rapidly changing climatic conditions. For a better understanding and more realistic predictions of species' and biodiversity responses, the consideration of extrinsic (i.e. environment-related) and intrinsic (i.e. organism-related) factors is important, among which four appear to be particularly crucial: climate change and land-use change, as extrinsic factors, as well as physiology and dispersal capacity, as intrinsic factors. Here, I argue that these four factors should be considered in an integrative way, but that the scientific community has not yet been very successful in doing so. A quantitative literature review revealed a generally low level of integration within global change biology, with a pronounced gap especially between the field of physiology and other (sub)disciplines. After a discussion of potential reasons for this unfortunate lack of integration, some of which may relate to key deficits e.g. in the reward and incentive systems of academia, I suggest a few ideas that might help to overcome some of the barriers between separated research communities. Furthermore, I list several examples for promising research along the integration frontier, after which I outline some research questions that could become relevant if one is to push the boundary of integration among disciplines, of data and methods, and across scales even further - for a better understanding and more reliable predictions of species and biodiversity in a world of global change.

The influence of weather and moon phase on small mammal activity

Small mammals are commonly surveyed using live trapping but the influence of weather conditions on trap success is largely unknown. This information is required to design and implement more effective field surveys and monitoring. We tested the influence of weather and moon phase on capture rates of small mammals in the Murray Mallee region of semi-arid Australia. We used extensive pitfall trapping data collected at 267 sites, totalling 54492 trap-nights. We built regression models to explore the relationship between the capture rates of five species and daily meteorological conditions, and across families of mammals, including dasyurids, burramyids and rodents. A relationship common to several taxa was the positive influence of high winds (>20km h−1) on capture rates. We also identified differences between taxa, with warmer overnight temperatures increasing capture rates of mallee ningaui but decreasing those of Bolam’s mouse. This makes it difficult to determine a single set of ‘optimal’ meteorological conditions for surveying the entire community but points to conditions favourable to individual species and groups. We recommend that surveys undertaken in warmer months encompass a variety of meteorological conditions to increase capture rates and provide a representative sample of the small mammal community present in a landscape.

Habitat loss and thermal tolerances influence the sensitivity of resident bird populations to winter weather at regional scales

Climate change and habitat loss pose the greatest contemporary threats to biodiversity, but their impacts on populations largely vary across species. These differential responses could be caused by complex interactions between landscape and climate change and species-specific sensitivities. Understanding the factors that determine which species are most vulnerable to the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss is a high conservation priority. Here, we ask (a) whether and to what extent land cover moderates the impacts of winter weather on population dynamics of wintering birds, and (b) what role species' physiology might play in modifying their responses to changing weather conditions. To address these questions, we used thousands of observations collected by citizen scientists participating in Project FeederWatch to build dynamic occupancy models for 14 species of wintering birds. Populations of wintering birds were more dynamic, having higher rates of local extinction and colonization, in more forested landscapes during extreme cold-presumably enabling them to better track resources. However, urban areas appeared to provide refuge for some species, as demonstrated by increased local colonization during the harshest winter weather. Lastly, we found that species-specific differences in thermal tolerances strongly influenced occupancy dynamics such that species that are less cold-tolerant were more likely to go locally extinct at colder sites and during colder periods throughout winter. Together, our results suggest that species that are less cold-tolerant and populations occupying less forested landscapes are most vulnerable to extreme winter weather.

Body temperature maintenance acclimates in a winter-tenacious songbird

Flexibility in heat generation and dissipation mechanisms provides endotherms the ability to match their thermoregulatory strategy with external demands. However, the degree to which these two mechanisms account for seasonal changes in body temperature regulation is little explored. Here, we present novel data on the regulation of avian body temperature to investigate how birds alter mechanisms of heat production and heat conservation to deal with variation in ambient conditions. We subjected dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) to chronic cold acclimations of varying duration and subsequently quantified their metabolic rates, thermal conductance and ability to maintain normothermia. Cold-acclimated birds adjusted traits related to both heat generation (increased summit metabolic rate) and heat conservation (decreased conductance) to improve their body temperature regulation. Increases in summit metabolic rate occurred rapidly, but plateaued after 1 week of cold exposure. In contrast, changes to conductance occurred only after 9 weeks of cold exposure. Thus, the ability to maintain body temperature continued to improve throughout the experiment, but the mechanisms underlying this improvement changed through time. Our results demonstrate the ability of birds to adjust thermoregulatory strategies in response to thermal cues and reveal that birds may combine multiple responses to meet the specific demands of their environments.

Trait-Based Assessments of Climate-Change Impacts on Interacting Species

Plant-animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.

Where winter rules: Modeling wild boar distribution in its north-eastern range

Wild boars are distributed almost all over the Earth. Though, Northern Asia remained not inhabited by the species until the end of the 20th century. In the last two decades slowly but surely the wild boar has expanded the northeastern edge of its range to the northern border of the taiga. Investigating environmental factors that underlie range expansions is crucial for understanding its mechanism and predict future changes in species distribution and biodiversity. Here we investigated the distribution of wild boar in its northeastern range, comparing the role of habitat and climate variables at three spatial scales: the permanently occupied area, the area of potential expansion and the total area. We have shown that along the gradient of wild boar occupancy (from permanently to sporadically occupied to presently unoccupied) the importance of habitat variables decreases while importance of climatic variables increases. Our analysis suggests that the potential range increase of the species results from the combined effect of habitat and climatic variables. A possibility for future expansion, however, is rather related to climate change (particularly to the increase of temperature at high latitudes) than to the alteration of habitat or shifts in resource use.