Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions of ecological niches

Ecological niche conservatism spurs diversification in response to climate change

Lengthy debate has surrounded the theoretical and empirical science of whether climatic niche evolution is related to increased or decreased rates of biological diversification. Because species can persist for thousands to millions of years, these questions cross broad scales of time and space. Thus, short-term experiments may not provide comprehensive understanding of the system, leading to the emergence of contrasting opinions: niche evolution may increase diversity by allowing species to explore and colonize new geographic areas across which they could speciate; or, niche conservatism might augment biodiversity by supporting isolation of populations that may then undergo allopatric speciation. Here, we use a simulation approach to test how biological diversification responds to different rates and modes of niche evolution. We find that niche conservatism promotes biological diversification, whereas labile niches-whether adapting to the conditions available or changing randomly-generally led to slower diversification rates. These novel results provide a framework for understanding how Earth-life interactions produced such a diverse biota.

The role of climate and islands in species diversification and reproductive-mode evolution of Old World tree frogs

Large diversifications of species are known to occur unevenly across space and evolutionary lineages, but the relative importance of their driving mechanisms, such as climate, ecological opportunity and key evolutionary innovations (KEI), remains poorly understood. Here, we explore the remarkable diversification of rhacophorid frogs, which represent six percent of global amphibian diversity, utilize four distinct reproductive modes, and span a climatically variable area across mainland Asia, associated continental islands, and Africa. Using a complete species-level phylogeny, we find near-constant diversification rates but a highly uneven distribution of species richness. Montane regions on islands and some mainland regions have higher phylogenetic diversity and unique assemblages of taxa; we identify these as cool-wet refugia. Starting from a centre of origin, rhacophorids reached these distant refugia by adapting to new climatic conditions (‘niche evolution’-dominant), especially following the origin of KEIs such as terrestrial reproduction (in the Late Eocene) or by dispersal during periods of favourable climate (‘niche conservatism’-dominant).

By examining climate, geographical and phylogenetic data, the diversification and evolution of rhacophorid frogs is explored

Evidence for ecological processes driving speciation among endemic lizards of Madagascar

Although genetic patterns produced by population isolation during speciation are well documented, the biogeographic and ecological processes that trigger speciation remain poorly understood. Alternative hypotheses for the biogeography and ecology of speciation include geographic isolation combined with niche conservation (soft allopatry) or parapatric distribution on an environmental gradient with niche divergence (ecological speciation). Here, we use species' distributions, environmental data, and two null models (the Random Translation and Rotation and the Background Similarity Test) to test these alternative hypotheses among 28 sister pairs of microendemic lizards in Madagascar. Our results demonstrate strong bimodal peaks along a niche divergence-conservation spectrum, with at least 25 out of 28 sister pairs exhibiting either niche conservation or divergence, and the remaining pairs showing weak ecological signals. Yet despite these significant results, we do not find strong associations of niche conservation with allopatric distributions or niche divergence with parapatric distributions. Our findings thus provide strong evidence of a role for ecological processes driving speciation, rather than the classic expectation of speciation through geographic isolation, but demonstrate that the link between ecological speciation and parapatry is complex and requires further analysis of a broader taxonomic sample to fully resolve.

Ecological niche differentiation in Chiroxiphia and Antilophia manakins (Aves: Pipridae)

Species distribution models are useful for identifying the ecological characteristics that may limit a species' geographic range and for inferring patterns of speciation. Here, we test a hypothesis of niche conservatism across evolutionary time in a group of manakins (Aves: Pipridae), with a focus on Chiroxiphia boliviana, and examine the degree of ecological differentiation with other Chiroxiphia and Antilophia manakins. We tested whether allopatric sister species were more or less similar in environmental space than expected given their phylogenetic distances, which would suggest, respectively, ecological niche conservatism over time or ecologically mediated selection (i.e. niche divergence). We modeled the distribution of nine manakin taxa (C. boliviana, C. caudata, C. lanceolata, C. linearis, C. p. pareola, C. p. regina, C. p. napensis, Antilophia galeata and A. bokermanni) using Maxent. We first performed models for each taxon and compared them. To test our hypothesis we followed three approaches: (1) we tested whether C. boliviana could predict the distribution of the other manakin taxa and vice versa; (2) we compared the ecological niches by using metrics of niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity; and (3) lastly, we tested whether niche differentiation corresponded to phylogenetic distances calculated from two recent phylogenies. All models had high training and test AUC values. Mean AUC ratios were high (>0.8) for most taxa, indicating performance better than random. Results suggested niche conservatism, and high niche overlap and equivalency between C. boliviana and C. caudata, but we found very low values between C. boliviana and the rest of the taxa. We found a negative, but not significant, relationship between niche overlap and phylogenetic distance, suggesting an increase in ecological differentiation and niche divergence over evolutionary time. Overall, we give some insights into the evolution of C. boliviana, proposing that ecological selection may have influenced its speciation.

Ecological niche differentiation in Chiroxiphia and Antilophia manakins (Aves: Pipridae)

Species distribution models are useful for identifying the ecological characteristics that may limit a species' geographic range and for inferring patterns of speciation. Here, we test a hypothesis of niche conservatism across evolutionary time in a group of manakins (Aves: Pipridae), with a focus on Chiroxiphia boliviana, and examine the degree of ecological differentiation with other Chiroxiphia and Antilophia manakins. We tested whether allopatric sister species were more or less similar in environmental space than expected given their phylogenetic distances, which would suggest, respectively, ecological niche conservatism over time or ecologically mediated selection (i.e. niche divergence). We modeled the distribution of nine manakin taxa (C. boliviana, C. caudata, C. lanceolata, C. linearis, C. p. pareola, C. p. regina, C. p. napensis, Antilophia galeata and A. bokermanni) using Maxent. We first performed models for each taxon and compared them. To test our hypothesis we followed three approaches: (1) we tested whether C. boliviana could predict the distribution of the other manakin taxa and vice versa; (2) we compared the ecological niches by using metrics of niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity; and (3) lastly, we tested whether niche differentiation corresponded to phylogenetic distances calculated from two recent phylogenies. All models had high training and test AUC values. Mean AUC ratios were high (>0.8) for most taxa, indicating performance better than random. Results suggested niche conservatism, and high niche overlap and equivalency between C. boliviana and C. caudata, but we found very low values between C. boliviana and the rest of the taxa. We found a negative, but not significant, relationship between niche overlap and phylogenetic distance, suggesting an increase in ecological differentiation and niche divergence over evolutionary time. Overall, we give some insights into the evolution of C. boliviana, proposing that ecological selection may have influenced its speciation.