A Better Coefficient of Determination for Genetic Profile Analysis

Multiancestry transferability of a polygenic risk score for diverticulitis

OBJECTIVE

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for diverticular disease must be evaluated in diverse cohorts. We sought to explore shared genetic predisposition across the phenome and to assess risk stratification in individuals genetically similar to European, African and Admixed-American reference samples.

METHODS

A 44-variant PRS was applied to the All of Us Research Program. Phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) identified conditions linked with heightened genetic susceptibility to diverticular disease. To evaluate the PRS in risk stratification, logistic regression models for symptomatic and for severe diverticulitis were compared with base models with covariates of age, sex, body mass index, smoking and principal components. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) and Nagelkerke's R2.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 181 719 individuals for PheWAS and 50 037 for risk modelling. PheWAS identified associations with diverticular disease, connective tissue disease and hernias. Across ancestry groups, one SD PRS increase was consistently associated with greater odds of severe (range of ORs (95% CI) 1.60 (1.27 to 2.02) to 1.86 (1.42 to 2.42)) and of symptomatic diverticulitis ((95% CI) 1.27 (1.10 to 1.46) to 1.66 (1.55 to 1.79)) relative to controls. European models achieved the highest AUROC and Nagelkerke's R2 (AUROC (95% CI) 0.78 (0.75 to 0.81); R2 0.25). The PRS provided a maximum R2 increase of 0.034 and modest AUROC improvement.

CONCLUSION

Associations between a diverticular disease PRS and severe presentations persisted in diverse cohorts when controlling for known risk factors. Relative improvements in model performance were observed, but absolute change magnitudes were modest.

Fine-mapping genomic loci refines bipolar disorder risk genes

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a heritable mental illness with complex etiology. While the largest published genome-wide association study identified 64 BD risk loci, the causal SNPs and genes within these loci remain unknown. We applied a suite of statistical and functional fine-mapping methods to these loci, and prioritized 17 likely causal SNPs for BD. We mapped these SNPs to genes, and investigated their likely functional consequences by integrating variant annotations, brain cell-type epigenomic annotations, brain quantitative trait loci, and results from rare variant exome sequencing in BD. Convergent lines of evidence supported the roles of genes involved in neurotransmission and neurodevelopment including SCN2A, TRANK1, DCLK3, INSYN2B, SYNE1, THSD7A, CACNA1B, TUBBP5, PLCB3, PRDX5, KCNK4, CRTC3, AP001453 . 3, TRPT1, FKBP2, DNAJC4, RASGRP1, FURIN, FES, DPH1, GSDMB, MED24 and THRA in BD. These represent promising candidates for functional experiments to understand biological mechanisms and therapeutic potential. Additionally, we demonstrated that fine-mapping effect sizes can improve performance of BD polygenic risk scores across diverse populations, and present a high-throughput fine-mapping pipeline ( https://github.com/mkoromina/SAFFARI ).

Shared vulnerability and sex-dependent polygenic burden in psychotic disorders

Evidence suggests a remarkable shared genetic susceptibility between psychiatric disorders. However, sex-dependent differences have been less studied. We explored the contribution of schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) polygenic scores (PGSs) on the risk for psychotic disorders and whether sex-dependent differences exist (CIBERSAM sample: 1826 patients and 1372 controls). All PGSs were significantly associated with psychosis. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the variance explained in psychotic disorders risk was significantly higher in males than in females for all PGSs. Our results confirm the shared genetic architecture across psychotic disorders and demonstrate sex-dependent differences in the vulnerability to psychotic disorders.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Schizophrenia polygenic risk scores, clinical variables and genetic pathways as predictors of phenotypic traits of bipolar I disorder

AIM

We investigated the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from the schizophrenia GWAS (Trubetskoy et al., 2022) (SCZ3) for phenotypic traits of bipolar disorder type-I (BP-I) in 1878 BP-I cases and 2751 controls from Romania and UK.

METHODS

We used PRSice-v2.3.3 and PRS-CS for computing SCZ3-PRS for testing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with clinical variables for several BP-I subphenotypes and for pathway analysis. Non-linear predictive models were also used.

RESULTS

SCZ3-PRS significantly predicted psychosis, incongruent and congruent psychosis, general age-of-onset (AO) of BP-I, AO-depression, AO-Mania, rapid cycling in univariate regressions. A negative correlation between the number of depressive episodes and psychosis, mainly incongruent and an inverse relationship between increased SCZ3-SNP loading and BP-I-rapid cycling were observed. In random forest models comparing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with nine clinical variables, the best predictions were provided by combinations of SCZ3-PRS-CS and clinical variables closely followed by models containing only clinical variables. SCZ3-PRS performed worst. Twenty-two significant pathways underlying psychosis were identified.

LIMITATIONS

The combined RO-UK sample had a certain degree of heterogeneity of the BP-I severity: only the RO sample and partially the UK sample included hospitalized BP-I cases. The hospitalization is an indicator of illness severity. Not all UK subjects had complete subphenotype information.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that the SCZ3-PRS have a modest clinical value for predicting phenotypic traits of BP-I. For clinical use their best performance is in combination with clinical variables.

Using polygenic scores in combination with symptom rating scales to identify attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

BACKGROUND

The inclusion of biomarkers could improve diagnostic accuracy of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). One potential biomarker is the ADHD polygenic score (PGS), a measure of genetic liability for ADHD. This study aimed to investigate if the ADHD PGS can provide additional information alongside ADHD rating scales and examination of family history of ADHD to distinguish between ADHD cases and controls.

METHODS

Polygenic scores were calculated for 576 adults with ADHD and 530 ethnically matched controls. ADHD PGS was used alongside scores from the Wender-Utah Rating Scale (WURS) and the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS) as predictors of ADHD diagnosis in a set of nested logistic regression models. These models were compared by likelihood ratio (LR) tests, Akaike information criterion corrected for small samples (AICc), and Lee R². These analyses were repeated with family history of ADHD as a covariate in all models.

RESULTS

The ADHD PGS increased the variance explained of the ASRS by 0.58% points (pp) (R2ASRS = 61.11%, R2ASRS + PGS=61.69%), the WURS by 0.61pp (R2WURS = 77.33%, R2WURS + PGS= 77.94%), of ASRS and WURS together by 0.57pp (R2ASRS + WURS=80.84%, R2ASRS + WURS+PGS=81.40%), and of self-reported family history by 1.40pp (R2family = 28.06%, R2family + PGS=29.46%). These increases were statistically significant, as measured by LR tests and AICc.

CONCLUSION

We found that the ADHD PGS contributed additional information to common diagnostic aids. However, the increase in variance explained was small, suggesting that the ADHD PGS is currently not a clinically useful diagnostic aid. Future studies should examine the utility of ADHD PGS in ADHD prediction alongside non-genetic risk factors, and the diagnostic utility of the ADHD PGS should be evaluated as more genetic data is accumulated and computational tools are further refined.

R2ROC: an efficient method of comparing two or more correlated AUC from out-of-sample prediction using polygenic scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) enable early prediction of disease risk. Evaluating PRS performance for binary traits commonly relies on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). However, the widely used DeLong's method for comparative significance tests suffer from limitations, including computational time and the lack of a one-to-one mapping between test statistics based on AUC and R 2 . To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach that leverages the Delta method to derive the variance and covariance of AUC values, enabling a comprehensive and efficient comparative significance test. Our approach offers notable advantages over DeLong's method, including reduced computation time (up to 150-fold), making it suitable for large-scale analyses and ideal for integration into machine learning frameworks. Furthermore, our method allows for a direct one-to-one mapping between AUC and R 2 values for comparative significance tests, providing enhanced insights into the relationship between these measures and facilitating their interpretation. We validated our proposed approach through simulations and applied it to real data comparing PRSs for diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) prediction in a cohort of 28,880 European individuals. The PRSs were derived using genome-wide association study summary statistics from two distinct sources. Our approach enabled a comprehensive and informative comparison of the PRSs, shedding light on their respective predictive abilities for diabetes and CAD. This advancement contributes to the assessment of genetic risk factors and personalized disease prediction, supporting better healthcare decision-making.

Genome-wide association studies of lifetime and frequency cannabis use in 131,895 individuals

Cannabis is one of the most widely used drugs globally. Decriminalization of cannabis is further increasing cannabis consumption. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of lifetime (N=131,895) and frequency (N=73,374) of cannabis use. Lifetime cannabis use GWAS identified two loci, one near CADM2 (rs11922956, p=2.40E-11) and another near GRM3 (rs12673181, p=6.90E-09). Frequency of use GWAS identified one locus near CADM2 (rs4856591, p=8.10E-09; r2 =0.76 with rs11922956). Both traits were heritable and genetically correlated with previous GWASs of lifetime use and cannabis use disorder (CUD), as well as other substance use and cognitive traits. Polygenic scores (PGSs) for lifetime and frequency of cannabis use associated cannabis use phenotypes in AllofUs participants. Phenome-wide association study of lifetime cannabis use PGS in a hospital cohort replicated associations with substance use and mood disorders, and uncovered associations with celiac and infectious diseases. This work demonstrates the value of GWASs of CUD transition risk factors.

Body mass index stratification optimizes polygenic prediction of type 2 diabetes in cross-biobank analyses

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) shows heterogeneous body mass index (BMI) sensitivity. Here, we performed stratification based on BMI to optimize predictions for BMI-related diseases. We obtained BMI-stratified datasets using data from more than 195,000 individuals (nT2D = 55,284) from BioBank Japan (BBJ) and UK Biobank. T2D heritability in the low-BMI group was greater than that in the high-BMI group. Polygenic predictions of T2D toward low-BMI targets had pseudo-R2 values that were more than 22% higher than BMI-unstratified targets. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) from low-BMI discovery outperformed PRSs from high BMI, while PRSs from BMI-unstratified discovery performed best. Pathway-specific PRSs demonstrated the biological contributions of pathogenic pathways. Low-BMI T2D cases showed higher rates of neuropathy and retinopathy. Combining BMI stratification and a method integrating cross-population effects, T2D predictions showed greater than 37% improvements over unstratified-matched-population prediction. We replicated findings in the Tohoku Medical Megabank (n = 26,000) and the second BBJ cohort (n = 33,096). Our findings suggest that target stratification based on existing traits can improve the polygenic prediction of heterogeneous diseases.

Integrative common and rare variant analyses provide insights into the genetic architecture of liver cirrhosis

We report a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study on liver cirrhosis and its associated endophenotypes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transferase. Using data from 12 cohorts, including 18,265 cases with cirrhosis, 1,782,047 controls, up to 1 million individuals with liver function tests and a validation cohort of 21,689 cases and 617,729 controls, we identify and validate 14 risk associations for cirrhosis. Many variants are located near genes involved in hepatic lipid metabolism. One of these, PNPLA3 p.Ile148Met, interacts with alcohol intake, obesity and diabetes on the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We develop a polygenic risk score that associates with the progression from cirrhosis to HCC. By focusing on prioritized genes from common variant analyses, we find that rare coding variants in GPAM associate with lower ALT, supporting GPAM as a potential target for therapeutic inhibition. In conclusion, this study provides insights into the genetic underpinnings of cirrhosis.

Bipolar patients display stoichiometric imbalance of gene expression in post-mortem brain samples

Bipolar disorder is a severe neuro-psychiatric condition where genome-wide association and sequencing studies have pointed to dysregulated gene expression as likely to be causal. We observed strong correlation in expression between GWAS-associated genes and hypothesised that healthy function depends on balance in the relative expression levels of the associated genes and that patients display stoichiometric imbalance. We developed a method for quantifying stoichiometric imbalance and used this to predict each sample's diagnosis probability in four cortical brain RNAseq datasets. The percentage of phenotypic variance on the liability-scale explained by these probabilities ranged from 10.0 to 17.4% (AUC: 69.4-76.4%) which is a multiple of the classification performance achieved using absolute expression levels or GWAS-based polygenic risk scores. Most patients display stoichiometric imbalance in three to ten genes, suggesting that dysregulation of only a small fraction of associated genes can trigger the disorder, with the identity of these genes varying between individuals.

Correlation-based tests for the formal comparison of polygenic scores in multiple populations

Polygenic scores (PGS) are measures of genetic risk, derived from the results of genome wide association studies (GWAS). Previous work has proposed the coefficient of determination (R2) as an appropriate measure by which to compare PGS performance in a validation dataset. Here we propose correlation-based methods for evaluating PGS performance by adapting previous work which produced a statistical framework and robust test statistics for the comparison of multiple correlation measures in multiple populations. This flexible framework can be extended to a wider variety of hypothesis tests than currently available methods. We assess our proposed method in simulation and demonstrate its utility with two examples, assessing previously developed PGS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and height in multiple populations in the All of Us cohort. Finally, we provide an R package 'coranova' with both parametric and nonparametric implementations of the described methods.

Alteration of DNA Methylation and Epigenetic Scores Associated With Features of Schizophrenia and Common Variant Genetic Risk

BACKGROUND

Unpacking molecular perturbations associated with features of schizophrenia is a critical step toward understanding phenotypic heterogeneity in this disorder. Recent epigenome-wide association studies have uncovered pervasive dysregulation of DNA methylation in schizophrenia; however, clinical features of the disorder that account for a large proportion of phenotypic variability are relatively underexplored.

METHODS

We comprehensively analyzed patterns of DNA methylation in a cohort of 381 individuals with schizophrenia from the deeply phenotyped Australian Schizophrenia Research Bank. Epigenetic changes were investigated in association with cognitive status, age of onset, treatment resistance, Global Assessment of Functioning scores, and common variant polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia. We subsequently explored alterations within genes previously associated with psychiatric illness, phenome-wide epigenetic covariance, and epigenetic scores.

RESULTS

Epigenome-wide association studies of the 5 primary traits identified 662 suggestively significant (p < 6.72 × 10-5) differentially methylated probes, with a further 432 revealed after controlling for schizophrenia polygenic risk on the remaining 4 traits. Interestingly, we uncovered many probes within genes associated with a variety of psychiatric conditions as well as significant epigenetic covariance with phenotypes and exposures including acute myocardial infarction, C-reactive protein, and lung cancer. Epigenetic scores for treatment-resistant schizophrenia strikingly exhibited association with clozapine administration, while epigenetic proxies of plasma protein expression, such as CCL17, MMP10, and PRG2, were associated with several features of schizophrenia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings collectively provide novel evidence suggesting that several features of schizophrenia are associated with alteration of DNA methylation, which may contribute to interindividual phenotypic variation in affected individuals.

A two-sample Mendelian randomization study explores metabolic profiling of different glycemic traits

We assessed the causal relation of four glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes liability with 167 metabolites using Mendelian randomization with various sensitivity analyses and a reverse Mendelian randomization analysis. We extracted instruments for fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, fasting insulin, and glycated hemoglobin from the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium (n = 200,622), and those for type 2 diabetes liability from a meta-analysis of multiple cohorts (148,726 cases, 965,732 controls) in Europeans. Outcome data were from summary statistics of 167 metabolites from the UK Biobank (n = 115,078). Fasting glucose and 2-h glucose were not associated with any metabolite. Higher glycated hemoglobin was associated with higher free cholesterol in small low-density lipoprotein. Type 2 diabetes liability and fasting insulin were inversely associated with apolipoprotein A1, total cholines, lipoprotein subfractions in high-density-lipoprotein and intermediate-density lipoproteins, and positively associated with aromatic amino acids. These findings indicate hyperglycemia-independent patterns and highlight the role of insulin in type 2 diabetes development. Further studies should evaluate these glycemic traits in type 2 diabetes diagnosis and clinical management.

A polygenic resilience score moderates the genetic risk for schizophrenia: Replication in 18,090 cases and 28,114 controls from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium

Identifying heritable factors that moderate the genetic risk for schizophrenia (SCZ) could help clarify why some individuals remain unaffected despite having relatively high genetic liability. Previously, we developed a framework to mine genome-wide association (GWAS) data for common genetic variants that protect high-risk unaffected individuals from SCZ, leading to derivation of the first-ever "polygenic resilience score" for SCZ (resilient controls n = 3786; polygenic risk score-matched SCZ cases n = 18,619). Here, we performed a replication study to verify the moderating effect of our polygenic resilience score on SCZ risk (OR = 1.09, p = 4.03 × 10-5 ) using newly released GWAS data from 23 independent case-control studies collated by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) (resilient controls n = 2821; polygenic risk score-matched SCZ cases n = 5150). Additionally, we sought to optimize our polygenic resilience-scoring formula to improve subsequent modeling of resilience to SCZ and other complex disorders. We found significant replication of the polygenic resilience score, and found that strict pruning of SNPs based on linkage disequilibrium to known risk SNPs and their linked loci optimizes the performance of the polygenic resilience score.

Distinguishing different psychiatric disorders using DDx-PRS

Despite great progress on methods for case-control polygenic prediction (e.g. schizophrenia vs. control), there remains an unmet need for a method that genetically distinguishes clinically related disorders (e.g. schizophrenia (SCZ) vs. bipolar disorder (BIP) vs. depression (MDD) vs. control); such a method could have important clinical value, especially at disorder onset when differential diagnosis can be challenging. Here, we introduce a method, Differential Diagnosis-Polygenic Risk Score (DDx-PRS), that jointly estimates posterior probabilities of each possible diagnostic category (e.g. SCZ=50%, BIP=25%, MDD=15%, control=10%) by modeling variance/covariance structure across disorders, leveraging case-control polygenic risk scores (PRS) for each disorder (computed using existing methods) and prior clinical probabilities for each diagnostic category. DDx-PRS uses only summary-level training data and does not use tuning data, facilitating implementation in clinical settings. In simulations, DDx-PRS was well-calibrated (whereas a simpler approach that analyzes each disorder marginally was poorly calibrated), and effective in distinguishing each diagnostic category vs. the rest. We then applied DDx-PRS to Psychiatric Genomics Consortium SCZ/BIP/MDD/control data, including summary-level training data from 3 case-control GWAS ( N =41,917-173,140 cases; total N =1,048,683) and held-out test data from different cohorts with equal numbers of each diagnostic category (total N =11,460). DDx-PRS was well-calibrated and well-powered relative to these training sample sizes, attaining AUCs of 0.66 for SCZ vs. rest, 0.64 for BIP vs. rest, 0.59 for MDD vs. rest, and 0.68 for control vs. rest. DDx-PRS produced comparable results to methods that leverage tuning data, confirming that DDx-PRS is an effective method. True diagnosis probabilities in top deciles of predicted diagnosis probabilities were considerably larger than prior baseline probabilities, particularly in projections to larger training sample sizes, implying considerable potential for clinical utility under certain circumstances. In conclusion, DDx-PRS is an effective method for distinguishing clinically related disorders.

Causal relationships between risk of venous thromboembolism and 18 cancers: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

People with cancer experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk of subsequent cancer is also increased in people experiencing their first VTE. The causal mechanisms underlying this association are not completely understood, and it is unknown whether VTE is itself a risk factor for cancer.

METHODS

We used data from large genome-wide association study meta-analyses to perform bidirectional Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate causal associations between genetic liability to VTE and risk of 18 different cancers.

RESULTS

We found no conclusive evidence that genetic liability to VTE was causally associated with an increased incidence of cancer, or vice versa. We observed an association between liability to VTE and pancreatic cancer risk [odds ratio for pancreatic cancer: 1.23 (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.40) per log-odds increase in VTE risk, P = 0.002]. However, sensitivity analyses revealed this association was predominantly driven by a variant proxying non-O blood group, with inadequate evidence to suggest a causal relationship.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings do not support the hypothesis that genetic liability to VTE is a cause of cancer. Existing observational epidemiological associations between VTE and cancer are therefore more likely to be driven by pathophysiological changes which occur in the setting of active cancer and anti-cancer treatments. Further work is required to explore and synthesize evidence for these mechanisms.

Estimating Disorder Probability Based on Polygenic Prediction Using the BPC Approach

Polygenic Scores (PGSs) summarize an individual's genetic propensity for a given trait in a single value, based on SNP effect sizes derived from Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) results. Methods have been developed that apply Bayesian approaches to improve the prediction accuracy of PGSs through optimization of estimated effect sizes. While these methods are generally well-calibrated for continuous traits (implying the predicted values are on average equal to the true trait values), they are not well-calibrated for binary disorder traits in ascertained samples. This is a problem because well-calibrated PGSs are needed to reliably compute the absolute disorder probability for an individual to facilitate future clinical implementation. Here we introduce the Bayesian polygenic score Probability Conversion (BPC) approach, which computes an individual's predicted disorder probability using GWAS summary statistics, an existing Bayesian PGS method (e.g. PRScs, SBayesR), the individual's genotype data, and a prior disorder probability. The BPC approach transforms the PGS to its underlying liability scale, computes the variances of the PGS in cases and controls, and applies Bayes' Theorem to compute the absolute disorder probability; it is practical in its application as it does not require a tuning dataset with both genotype and phenotype data. We applied the BPC approach to extensive simulated data and empirical data of nine disorders. The BPC approach yielded well-calibrated results that were consistently better than the results of another recently published approach.

Evaluating polygenic risk scores for predicting cardiometabolic traits and disease risks in the Taiwan Biobank

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension are common comorbidities and, along with hyperlipidemia, serve as risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) on cardiometabolic traits related to T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia and the incidence of these three diseases in Taiwan Biobank samples. Using publicly available, large-scale genome-wide association studies summary statistics, we constructed cross-ethnic PRSs for T2D, hypertension, body mass index, and nine quantitative traits typically used to define the three diseases. A composite PRS (cPRS) for each of the nine traits was constructed by aggregating the significant PRSs of its genetically correlated traits. The associations of each of the nine traits at baseline as well as the change of trait values during a 3- to 6-year follow-up period with its cPRS were evaluated. The predictive performances of cPRSs in predicting future incidences of T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were assessed. The cPRSs had significant associations with baseline and changes of trait values in 3-6 years and explained a higher proportion of variance for all traits than individual PRSs. Furthermore, models incorporating disease-related cPRSs, along with clinical features and relevant trait measurements achieved area under the curve values of 87.8%, 83.7%, and 75.9% for predicting future T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia in 3-6 years, respectively.

Genome-wide Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Risk of Glioma and Molecular Subtypes

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the contribution of many risk variants to provide a personalized genetic susceptibility profile. Since sample sizes of glioma genome-wide association studies (GWAS) remain modest, there is a need to find efficient ways of capturing genetic risk factors using available germline data.

Methods

We developed a novel PRS (PRS-CS) that uses continuous shrinkage priors to model the joint effects of over 1 million polymorphisms on disease risk and compared it to an approach (PRS-CT) that selects a limited set of independent variants that reach genome-wide significance (P<5×10-8). PRS models were trained using GWAS results stratified by histological (10,346 cases, 14,687 controls) and molecular subtype (2,632 cases, 2,445 controls), and validated in two independent cohorts.

Results

PRS-CS was consistently more predictive than PRS-CT across glioma subtypes with an average increase in explained variance (R2) of 21%. Improvements were particularly pronounced for glioblastoma tumors, with PRS-CS yielding larger effect sizes (odds ratio (OR)=1.93, P=2.0×10-54 vs. OR=1.83, P=9.4×10-50) and higher explained variance (R2=2.82% vs. R2=2.56%). Individuals in the 95th percentile of the PRS-CS distribution had a 3-fold higher lifetime absolute risk of IDH mutant (0.63%) and IDH wildtype (0.76%) glioma relative to individuals with average PRS. PRS-CS also showed high classification accuracy for IDH mutation status among cases (AUC=0.895).

Conclusions

Our novel genome-wide PRS may improve the identification of high-risk individuals and help distinguish between prognostic glioma subtypes, increasing the potential clinical utility of germline genetics in glioma patient management.

A genome-wide association meta-analysis implicates Hedgehog and Notch signaling in Dupuytren's disease

Dupuytren's disease (DD) is a highly heritable fibrotic disorder of the hand with incompletely understood etiology. A number of genetic loci, including Wnt signaling members, have been previously identified. Our overall aim was to identify novel genetic loci, to prioritize genes within the loci for functional studies, and to assess genetic correlation with associated disorders. We performed a meta-analysis of six DD genome-wide association studies from three European countries and extensive bioinformatic follow-up analyses. Leveraging 11,320 cases and 47,023 controls, we identified 85 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms in 56 loci, of which 11 were novel, explaining 13.3-38.1% of disease variance. Gene prioritization implicated the Hedgehog and Notch signaling pathways. We also identified a significant genetic correlation with frozen shoulder. The pathways identified highlight the potential for new therapeutic targets and provide a basis for additional mechanistic studies for a common disorder that can severely impact hand function.

Trans-ancestry epigenome-wide association meta-analysis of DNA methylation with lifetime cannabis use

Cannabis is widely used worldwide, yet its links to health outcomes are not fully understood. DNA methylation can serve as a mediator to link environmental exposures to health outcomes. We conducted an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of peripheral blood-based DNA methylation and lifetime cannabis use (ever vs. never) in a meta-analysis including 9436 participants (7795 European and 1641 African ancestry) from seven cohorts. Accounting for effects of cigarette smoking, our trans-ancestry EWAS meta-analysis revealed four CpG sites significantly associated with lifetime cannabis use at a false discovery rate of 0.05 ( p < 5.85 × 10 - 7 ) : cg22572071 near gene ADGRF1, cg15280358 in ADAM12, cg00813162 in ACTN1, and cg01101459 near LINC01132. Additionally, our EWAS analysis in participants who never smoked cigarettes identified another epigenome-wide significant CpG site, cg14237301 annotated to APOBR. We used a leave-one-out approach to evaluate methylation scores constructed as a weighted sum of the significant CpGs. The best model can explain 3.79% of the variance in lifetime cannabis use. These findings unravel the DNA methylation changes associated with lifetime cannabis use that are independent of cigarette smoking and may serve as a starting point for further research on the mechanisms through which cannabis exposure impacts health outcomes.

Persistent thinness and anorexia nervosa differ on a genomic level

Thinness and anorexia nervosa are both characterised by persistent low weight. Individuals with anorexia nervosa concurrently report distorted perceptions of their body and engage in weight-loss behaviours, whereas individuals with thinness often wish to gain weight. Both conditions are heritable and share genomics with BMI, but are not genetically correlated with each other. Based on their pattern of genetic associations with other traits, we explored differences between thinness and anorexia nervosa on a genomic level. In Part 1, using publicly available data, we compared genetic correlations of persistent thinness/anorexia nervosa with eleven psychiatric disorders. In Part 2, we identified individuals with adolescent persistent thinness in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) by latent class growth analysis of measured BMI from 10 to 24 years (n = 6594) and evaluated associations with psychiatric and anthropometric polygenic scores. In Part 1, in contrast to the positive genetic correlations of anorexia nervosa with various psychiatric disorders, persistent thinness showed negative genetic correlations with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (rgAN = 0.08 vs. rgPT = -0.30), alcohol dependence (rgAN = 0.07 vs. rgPT = -0.44), major depressive disorder (rgAN = 0.27 vs. rgPT = -0.18) and post-traumatic stress disorder (rgAN = 0.26 vs. rgPT = -0.20). In Part 2, individuals with adolescent persistent thinness in the ALSPAC had lower borderline personality disorder polygenic scores (OR = 0.77; Q = 0.01). Overall, results suggest that genetic variants associated with thinness are negatively associated with psychiatric disorders and therefore thinness may be differentiable from anorexia nervosa on a genomic level.

Fetuin-A and its genetic association with cardiometabolic disease

Fetuin-A acts as both an inhibitor of calcification and insulin signaling. Previous studies reported conflicting results on the association between fetuin-A and cardiometabolic diseases. We aim to provide further insights into the association between genetically predicted levels of fetuin-A and cardiometabolic diseases using a Mendelian randomization strategy. Genetic variants associated with fetuin-A and their effect sizes were obtained from previous genetic studies. A series of two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses in 412,444 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank did not show evidence for an association of genetically predicted fetuin-A with any stroke, ischemic stroke, or myocardial infarction. We do find that increased levels of genetically predicted fetuin-A are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.13-1.30, P =  < 0.01). Furthermore, genetically predicted fetuin-A increases the risk of coronary artery disease in individuals with type 2 diabetes, but we did not find evidence for an association between genetically predicted fetuin-A and coronary artery disease in those without type 2 diabetes (P for interaction = 0.03). One SD increase in genetically predicted fetuin-A decreases risk of myocardial infarction in women, but we do not find evidence for an association between genetically predicted fetuin-A and myocardial infarction in men (P for interaction =  < 0.01). Genetically predicted fetuin-A is associated with type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, type 2 diabetes status modifies the association of genetically predicted fetuin-A with coronary artery disease, indicating that fetuin-A increases risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Finally, higher genetically predicted fetuin-A reduces the risk of myocardial infarction in women, but we do not find evidence for an association between genetically predicted fetuin-A and myocardial infarction in men.

Polygenic risk scores identify heterogeneity in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have distinct and overlapping genetic and clinical features.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to test the hypothesis that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for asthma (PRSAsthma) and spirometry (FEV1 and FEV1/forced vital capacity; PRSspiro) would demonstrate differential associations with asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO).

METHODS

We developed and tested 2 asthma PRSs and applied the higher performing PRSAsthma and a previously published PRSspiro to research (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study and Childhood Asthma Management Program, with spirometry) and electronic health record-based (Mass General Brigham Biobank and Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging [GERA]) studies. We assessed the association of PRSs with COPD and asthma using modified random-effects and binary-effects meta-analyses, and ACO and asthma exacerbations in specific cohorts. Models were adjusted for confounders and genetic ancestry.

RESULTS

In meta-analyses of 102,477 participants, the PRSAsthma (odds ratio [OR] per SD, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.14-1.19]) and PRSspiro (OR per SD, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]) both predicted asthma, whereas the PRSspiro predicted COPD (OR per SD, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.21-1.30]). However, results differed by cohort. The PRSspiro was not associated with COPD in GERA and Mass General Brigham Biobank. In the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study, the PRSAsthma (OR per SD: Whites, 1.3; African Americans, 1.2) and PRSspiro (OR per SD: Whites, 2.2; African Americans, 1.6) were both associated with ACO. In GERA, the PRSAsthma was associated with asthma exacerbations (OR, 1.18) in Whites; the PRSspiro was associated with asthma exacerbations in White, LatinX, and East Asian participants.

CONCLUSIONS

PRSs for asthma and spirometry are both associated with ACO and asthma exacerbations. Genetic prediction performance differs in research versus electronic health record-based cohorts.

East Asian-specific and cross-ancestry genome-wide meta-analyses provide mechanistic insights into peptic ulcer disease

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) refers to acid-induced injury of the digestive tract, occurring mainly in the stomach (gastric ulcer (GU)) or duodenum (duodenal ulcer (DU)). In the present study, we conducted a large-scale, cross-ancestry meta-analysis of PUD combining genome-wide association studies with Japanese and European studies (52,032 cases and 905,344 controls), and discovered 25 new loci highly concordant across ancestries. An examination of GU and DU genetic architecture demonstrated that GUs shared the same risk loci as DUs, although with smaller genetic effect sizes and higher polygenicity than DUs, indicating higher heterogeneity of GUs. Helicobacter pylori (HP)-stratified analysis found an HP-related host genetic locus. Integrative analyses using bulk and single-cell transcriptome profiles highlighted the genetic factors of PUD being enriched in the highly expressed genes in stomach tissues, especially in somatostatin-producing D cells. Our results provide genetic evidence that gastrointestinal cell differentiations and hormone regulations are critical in PUD etiology.

WITHDRAWN: Genome-wide risk prediction of primary open-angle glaucoma across multiple ancestries

This manuscript has been withdrawn by medRxiv following a formal request by the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute Research Integrity Office owing to lack of author consent.

New insight into the causal relationship between Graves' disease liability and drug eruption: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Graves' disease (GD) and drug eruption are closely associated and frequently observed in the clinical setting. However, it remains unclear whether a causal relationship exists between these two conditions. The aim of the study is to investigate whether GD is causal to drug eruptions using two-sample Mendelian randomization.

Methods

We launched a two-sample MR to investigate whether GD is causal to drug eruption using Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data from Biobank Japan and FinnGen. Genetic variants were used as instrumental variables to avoid confounding bias. Statistical methods including inverse variance weighted (IVW), weighted median, MR-Egger, and MR-PRESSO were conducted to identify the robustness of the causal effect.

Results

Genetically predicted GD may increase the risk of drug eruption by 30.3% (OR=1.303, 95% CI 1.119-1.516, p<0.001) in the Asian population. In European populations, GD may increase the generalized drug eruption by 15.9% (OR=1.159, 95%CI 0.982-1.367, p=0.080).

Conclusions

We found GD is potentially causal to drug eruption. This finding expanded the view of the frequently observed co-existence of GD and adverse drug reactions involving the skin. The mechanism remains for further investigation.

Pragmatic Approach to Applying Polygenic Risk Scores to Diverse Populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate genetic susceptibility of an individual to disease and have the potential of providing utility in multiple clinical contexts. However, their performance, computation, and reporting in diverse populations remain challenging. Here, we present a pragmatic approach to optimize a PRS for a population of interest that leverages publicly available data and methods and consists of seven steps that are easily implemented without the requirement of expertise in complex genetics: step 1, selecting source genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and imputation; step 2, selecting methods to compute polygenic score; step 3, adjusting scores using principal components of genetic ancestry; step 4, selecting the best performing score; step 5, defining percentiles of a population distribution; step 6, validating performance of the optimized polygenic score; and step 7, implementing the optimized polygenic score in clinical practice. © 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Revealing polygenic pleiotropy using genetic risk scores for asthma

In this study we examined how genetic risk for asthma associates with different features of the disease and with other medical conditions and traits. Using summary statistics from two multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies of asthma, we modeled polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and validated their predictive performance in the UK Biobank. We then performed phenome-wide association studies of the asthma PRSs with 371 heritable traits in the UK Biobank. We identified 228 total significant associations across a variety of organ systems, including associations that varied by PRS model, sex, age of asthma onset, ancestry, and human leukocyte antigen region alleles. Our results highlight pervasive pleiotropy between asthma and numerous other traits and conditions and elucidate pathways that contribute to asthma and its comorbidities.

Polygenic prediction of bipolar disorder in a Latin American sample

To date, bipolar disorder (BD) genetic studies and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for BD are based primarily on populations of European descent (EUR) and lack representation from other ancestries including Latin American (LAT). Here, we describe a new LAT cohort from the Mayo Clinic Bipolar Biobank (MCBB), a multisite collaboration with recruitment sites in the United States (EUR; 1,443 cases and 777 controls) and Mexico and Chile (LAT; 211 cases and 161 controls) and use the sample to explore the performance of a BD-PRS in a LAT population. Using results from the largest genome-wide association study of BD in EUR individuals, PRSice2 and LDpred2 were used to compute BD-PRSs in the LAT and EUR samples from the MCBB. PRSs explained up to 1.4% (PRSice) and 4% (LDpred2) of the phenotypic variance on the liability scale in the LAT sample compared to 3.8% (PRSice2) and 3.4% (LDpred2) in the EUR samples. Future larger studies should further explore the differential performance of different PRS approaches across ancestries. International multisite studies, such as this one, have the potential to address diversity-related limitations of prior genomic studies and ultimately contribute to the reduction of health disparities.

Well-being spectrum traits are associated with polygenic scores for autism

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) tend to experience lower well-being as demonstrated mostly for children and adolescents in epidemiological studies. A further investigation of inclusive well-being, in terms of five well-being spectrum (5-WBS) traits including neuroticism, depression, loneliness, life satisfaction, and positive affect, among adults with ASD may deepen our understanding of their well-being, and lead to the possibility to further modify societal supportive mechanisms for individuals with ASD. This study aims to investigate if a genetic predisposition for ASD is associated with 5-WBS traits using polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis. PRS for ASD were calculated based on the latest genome-wide association study of ASD by the Psychiatric Genetics Consortium (18,381 cases, 27,969 controls) and were created in the independent cohort UK Biobank. Regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between ASD PRS and 5-WBS traits in the UK Biobank population including 337,423 individuals. ASD PRS were significantly associated with all 5-WBS traits, showing a positive association with the negative WBS traits, neuroticism (max R2  = 0.04%, p < 1 × 10-4 ), depression (max R2  = 0.06%, p < 1 × 10-4 ), loneliness (max R2  = 0.04%, p < 1 × 10-4 ), and a negative association with the positive WBS traits, life satisfaction (max R2  = 0.08%, p < 1 × 10-4 ), positive affect (max R2  = 0.10%, p < 1 × 10-4 ). The findings suggest that adults carrying a high load of risk single nucleotide peptides (SNPs) for ASD are more likely to report decreased well-being. The study demonstrates a considerable connection between susceptibility to ASD, its underlying genetic etiology and well-being.

Bacterial Community Modifies Host Genetics Effect on Early Childhood Caries

By age 5, approximately one-fifth of children have early childhood caries (ECC). Both the oral microbiome and host genetics are thought to influence susceptibility. Whether the oral microbiome modifies genetic susceptibility to ECC has not been tested. We test whether the salivary bacteriome modifies the association of a polygenic score (PGS, a score derived from genomic data that summarizes genetic susceptibility to disease) for primary tooth decay on ECC in the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia 2 longitudinal birth cohort. Children were genotyped using the Illumina Multi-Ethnic Genotyping Array and underwent annual dental examinations. We constructed a PGS for primary tooth decay using weights from an independent, genome-wide association meta-analysis. Using Poisson regression, we tested for associations between the PGS (high versus low) and ECC incidence, adjusting for demographic characteristics (n = 783). An incidence-density sampled subset of the cohort (n = 138) had salivary bacteriome data at 24 mo of age. We tested for effect modification of the PGS on ECC case status by salivary bacterial community state type (CST). By 60 mo, 20.69% of children had ECC. High PGS was not associated with an increased rate of ECC (incidence rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.42). However, having a cariogenic salivary bacterial CST at 24 mo was associated with ECC (odds ratio [OR], 7.48; 95% CI, 3.06-18.26), which was robust to PGS adjustment. An interaction existed between the salivary bacterial CST and the PGS on the multiplicative scale (P = 0.04). The PGS was associated with ECC (OR, 4.83; 95% CI, 1.29-18.17) only among individuals with a noncariogenic salivary bacterial CST (n = 70). Genetic causes of caries may be harder to detect when not accounting for cariogenic oral microbiomes. As certain salivary bacterial CSTs increased ECC risk across genetic risk strata, preventing colonization of cariogenic microbiomes would be universally beneficial.

Genetic architecture and polygenic risk score prediction of degenerative suspensory ligament desmitis (DSLD) in the Peruvian Horse

Introduction: Spontaneous rupture of tendons and ligaments is common in several species including humans. In horses, degenerative suspensory ligament desmitis (DSLD) is an important acquired idiopathic disease of a major energy-storing tendon-like structure. DSLD risk is increased in several breeds, including the Peruvian Horse. Affected horses have often been used for breeding before the disease is apparent. Breed predisposition suggests a substantial genetic contribution, but heritability and genetic architecture of DSLD have not been determined. Methods: To identify genomic regions associated with DSLD, we recruited a reference population of 183 Peruvian Horses, phenotyped as DSLD cases or controls, and undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS), a regional window variance analysis using local genomic partitioning, a signatures of selection (SOS) analysis, and polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction of DSLD risk. We also estimated trait heritability from pedigrees. Results: Heritability was estimated in a population of 1,927 Peruvian horses at 0.22 ± 0.08. After establishing a permutation-based threshold for genome-wide significance, 151 DSLD risk single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified by GWAS. Multiple regions of enriched local heritability were identified across the genome, with strong enrichment signals on chromosomes 1, 2, 6, 10, 13, 16, 18, 22, and the X chromosome. With SOS analysis, there were 66 genes with a selection signature in DSLD cases that was not present in the control group that included the TGFB3 gene. Pathways enriched in DSLD cases included proteoglycan metabolism, extracellular matrix homeostasis, and signal transduction pathways that included the hedgehog signaling pathway. The best PRS predictive performance was obtained when we fitted 1% of top SNPs using a Bayesian Ridge Regression model which achieved the highest mean of R2 on both the probit and logit liability scales, indicating a strong predictive performance. Discussion: We conclude that within-breed GWAS of DSLD in the Peruvian Horse has further confirmed that moderate heritability and a polygenic architecture underlies the trait and identified multiple DSLD SNP associations in novel tendinopathy candidate genes influencing disease risk. Pathways enriched with DSLD risk variants include ones that influence glycosaminoglycan metabolism, extracellular matrix homeostasis, signal transduction pathways.

Multi-PGS enhances polygenic prediction by combining 937 polygenic scores

The predictive performance of polygenic scores (PGS) is largely dependent on the number of samples available to train the PGS. Increasing the sample size for a specific phenotype is expensive and takes time, but this sample size can be effectively increased by using genetically correlated phenotypes. We propose a framework to generate multi-PGS from thousands of publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with no need to individually select the most relevant ones. In this study, the multi-PGS framework increases prediction accuracy over single PGS for all included psychiatric disorders and other available outcomes, with prediction R2 increases of up to 9-fold for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder compared to a single PGS. We also generate multi-PGS for phenotypes without an existing GWAS and for case-case predictions. We benchmark the multi-PGS framework against other methods and highlight its potential application to new emerging biobanks.

Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease

Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

Transcriptomic risk scores for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorder. We performed a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) using the latest genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis, in 38,691 individuals with ADHD and 186,843 controls, and 14 gene-expression reference panels across multiple brain tissues and whole blood. Based on TWAS results, we selected subsets of genes and constructed transcriptomic risk scores (TRSs) for the disorder in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of individuals with ADHD and controls. We found evidence of association between ADHD and TRSs constructed using expression profiles from multiple brain areas, with individuals with ADHD carrying a higher burden of TRSs than controls. TRSs were uncorrelated with the polygenic risk score (PRS) for ADHD and, in combination with PRS, improved significantly the proportion of variance explained over the PRS-only model. These results support the complementary predictive potential of genetic and transcriptomic profiles in blood and underscore the potential utility of gene expression for risk prediction and deeper insight in molecular mechanisms underlying ADHD.

150 risk variants for diverticular disease of intestine prioritize cell types and enable polygenic prediction of disease susceptibility

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis of diverticular disease (DivD) of intestine within 724,372 individuals and identified 150 independent genome-wide significant DNA variants. Integration of the GWAS results with human gut single-cell RNA sequencing data implicated gut myocyte, mesothelial and stromal cells, and enteric neurons and glia in DivD development. Ninety-five genes were prioritized based on multiple lines of evidence, including SLC9A3, a drug target gene of tenapanor used for the treatment of the constipation subtype of irritable bowel syndrome. A DivD polygenic score (PGS) enables effective risk prediction (area under the curve [AUC], 0.688; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.645-0.732) and the top 20% PGS was associated with ∼3.6-fold increased DivD risk relative to the remaining population. Our statistical and bioinformatic analyses suggest that the mechanism of DivD is through colon structure, gut motility, gastrointestinal mucus, and ionic homeostasis. Our analyses reinforce the link between gastrointestinal disorders and the enteric nervous system through genetics.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Improved genetic prediction of the risk of knee osteoarthritis using the risk factor-based polygenic score

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis is used to predict disease risk. Although PRS has been shown to have great potential in improving clinical care, PRS accuracy assessment has been mainly focused on European ancestry. This study aimed to develop an accurate genetic risk score for knee osteoarthritis (OA) using a multi-population PRS and leveraging a multi-trait PRS in the Japanese population.

METHODS

We calculated PRS using PRS-CS-auto, derived from genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics for knee OA in the Japanese population (same ancestry) and multi-population. We further identified risk factor traits for which PRS could predict knee OA and subsequently developed an integrated PRS based on multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG), including genetically correlated risk traits. PRS performance was evaluated in participants of the Nagahama cohort study who underwent radiographic evaluation of the knees (n = 3,279). PRSs were incorporated into knee OA integrated risk models along with clinical risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 2,852 genotyped individuals were included in the PRS analysis. The PRS based on Japanese knee OA GWAS was not associated with knee OA (p = 0.228). In contrast, PRS based on multi-population knee OA GWAS showed a significant association with knee OA (p = 6.7 × 10-5, odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation = 1.19), whereas PRS based on MTAG of multi-population knee OA, along with risk factor traits such as body mass index GWAS, displayed an even stronger association with knee OA (p = 5.4 × 10-7, OR = 1.24). Incorporating this PRS into traditional risk factors improved the predictive ability of knee OA (area under the curve, 74.4% to 74.7%; p = 0.029).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that multi-trait PRS based on MTAG, combined with traditional risk factors, and using large sample size multi-population GWAS, significantly improved predictive accuracy for knee OA in the Japanese population, even when the sample size of GWAS of the same ancestry was small. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to show a statistically significant association between the PRS and knee OA in a non-European population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

No. C278.

Psychiatric polygenic risk as a predictor of COVID-19 risk and severity: insight into the genetic overlap between schizophrenia and COVID-19

Despite the high contagion and mortality rates that have accompanied the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, the clinical presentation of the syndrome varies greatly from one individual to another. Potential host factors that accompany greater risk from COVID-19 have been sought and schizophrenia (SCZ) patients seem to present more severe COVID-19 than control counterparts, with certain gene expression similarities between psychiatric and COVID-19 patients reported. We used summary statistics from the last SCZ, bipolar disorder (BD), and depression (DEP) meta-analyses available on the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium webpage to calculate polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for a target sample of 11,977 COVID-19 cases and 5943 subjects with unknown COVID-19 status. Linkage disequilibrium score (LDSC) regression analysis was performed when positive associations were obtained from the PRS analysis. The SCZ PRS was a significant predictor in the case/control, symptomatic/asymptomatic, and hospitalization/no hospitalization analyses in the total and female samples; and of symptomatic/asymptomatic status in men. No significant associations were found for the BD or DEP PRS or in the LDSC regression analysis. SNP-based genetic risk for SCZ, but not for BD or DEP, may be associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity, especially among women; however, predictive accuracy barely exceeded chance level. We believe that the inclusion of sexual loci and rare variations in the analysis of genomic overlap between SCZ and COVID-19 will help to elucidate the genetic commonalities between these conditions.

Handedness and 23 Early Life Characteristics in 37,495 Dutch Twins

In studies of singletons, a range of early-life characteristics have been reported to be associated with handedness, but some of these associations have failed to replicate. We examined associations between 23 early life characteristics with handedness in a large sample of 37,495 5-year-old twins. We considered three definitions of handedness: left-handedness (LH), mixed-handedness (MH), and non-right-handedness (NRH). Our main aim was to test whether the associations with sex, birth weight, gestational age, and season of birth - as reported in singletons - replicate in twins, and to examine twin-specific variables, including zygosity, chorionicity, birth order, and intertwin delivery time. Compared to previously published data from adults born as singletons (7.23%), the prevalence of NRH was higher in both twins (16.19%) and their parents (15.09%). In the twins, LH and NRH were associated with parents' LH. Male sex and lower gestational age were associated with NRH, and LH was associated with not being breastfed. MH was related to neurodevelopmental delays and higher externalizing problems later in childhood. Other previously reported associations were not replicated, and no twin-specific characteristics were related to handedness. These results emphasize the importance of considering multiple definitions of handedness and indicate a small number of replicated associations across studies.

Causal relationships between risk of venous thromboembolism and 18 cancers: a bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background

People with cancer experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Additionally, risk of subsequent cancer is increased in people experiencing their first VTE. The causal mechanisms underlying this association are not completely understood, and it is unknown whether VTE is itself a risk factor for cancer.

Methods

We used data from large genome-wide association study meta-analyses to perform bi-directional Mendelian randomisation analyses to estimate causal associations between genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE and risk of 18 different cancers.

Results

We found no conclusive evidence that genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE was causally associated with an increased incidence of cancer, or vice-versa. We observed an association between VTE and pancreatic cancer risk (odds ratio for pancreatic cancer 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.08 - 1.40) per log-odds increase in risk of VTE, P = 0.002). However, sensitivity analyses revealed this association was predominantly driven by a variant proxying non-O blood group, with inadequate evidence from Mendelian randomisation to suggest a causal relationship.

Conclusions

These findings do not support the hypothesis that genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE is a cause of cancer. Existing observational epidemiological associations between VTE and cancer are therefore more likely to be driven by pathophysiological changes which occur in the setting of active cancer and anti-cancer treatments. Further work is required to explore and synthesise evidence for these mechanisms.

Bacterial community modifies host genetics effect on early childhood caries

Background

By age five approximately one-fifth of children have early childhood caries (ECC). Both the oral microbiome and host genetics are thought to influence susceptibility. Whether the oral microbiome modifies genetic susceptibility to ECC has not been tested. We test whether the salivary bacteriome modifies the association of a polygenic score (PGS, a score derived from genomic data that summarizes genetic susceptibility to disease) for primary tooth decay on ECC in the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia 2 longitudinal birth cohort.

Methods

Children were genotyped using the Illumina Multi-Ethnic Genotyping Array and underwent annual dental examinations. We constructed a PGS for primary tooth decay using weights from an independent, genome-wide association meta-analysis. Using Poisson regression, we tested for associations between the PGS (high versus low) and ECC incidence, adjusting for demographic characteristics (n=783). An incidence-density sampled subset of the cohort (n=138) had salivary bacteriome data at 24- months of age. We tested for effect modification of the PGS on ECC case status by salivary bacterial community state type (CST).

Results

By 60-months, 20.69% of children had ECC. High PGS was not associated with an increased rate of ECC (incidence-rate ratio:1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.42)). However, having a cariogenic salivary bacterial CST at 24-months was associated with ECC (odds ratio (OR): 7.48 (95%CI: 3.06, 18.26)), which was robust to PGS adjustment. An interaction existed between the salivary bacterial CST and the PGS on the multiplicative scale (P= 0.04). The PGS was associated with ECC (OR: 4.83 (95% CI: 1.29, 18.17)) only among individuals with a noncariogenic salivary bacterial CST (n=70).

Conclusions

Genetic causes of caries may be harder to detect when not accounting for cariogenic oral microbiomes. As certain salivary bacterial CSTs increased ECC-risk across genetic-risk strata, preventing colonization of cariogenic microbiomes would be universally beneficial.

Mapping the genetic architecture of suicide attempt and suicide death using polygenic risk scores for clinically-related psychiatric disorders and traits

BACKGROUND

Suicidal behavior is moderately heritable and a consequence of a combination of the diathesis traits for suicidal behavior and suicide-related major psychiatric disorders. Here, we sought to examine shared polygenic effects between various psychiatric disorders/traits and suicidal behavior and to compare the shared polygenic effects of various psychiatric disorders/traits on non-fatal suicide attempt and suicide death.

METHODS

We used our genotyped European ancestry sample of 260 non-fatal suicide attempters, 317 suicide decedents and 874 non-psychiatric controls to test whether polygenic risk scores (PRSs) obtained from large GWASs for 22 suicide-related psychiatric disorders/traits were associated with suicidal behavior. Results were compared between non-fatal suicide attempt and suicide death in a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

PRSs for major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, ADHD, alcohol dependence, sensitivity to environmental stress and adversity, educational attainment, cognitive performance, and IQ were associated with suicidal behavior (Bonferroni-corrected p < 2.5 × 10^-4). The polygenic effects of all 22 psychiatric disorders/traits had the same direction (p for binomial tests = 4.8 × 10^-7) and were correlated (Spearman's ρ = 0.85) between non-fatal suicide attempters and suicide decedents.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that polygenic effects for major psychiatric disorders and diathesis-related traits including stress responsiveness and intellect/cognitive function contributed to suicidal behavior. While we found comparable polygenic architecture between non-fatal suicide attempters and suicide decedents based on correlations with PRSs of suicide-related psychiatric disorders/traits, our analyses are limited by small sample size resulting in low statistical power to detect difference between non-fatal suicide attempt and suicide death.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 93 risk loci and enables risk prediction equivalent to monogenic forms of venous thromboembolism

We report a genome-wide association study of venous thromboembolism (VTE) incorporating 81,190 cases and 1,419,671 controls sampled from six cohorts. We identify 93 risk loci, of which 62 are previously unreported. Many of the identified risk loci are at genes encoding proteins with functions converging on the coagulation cascade or platelet function. A VTE polygenic risk score (PRS) enabled effective identification of both high- and low-risk individuals. Individuals within the top 0.1% of PRS distribution had a VTE risk similar to homozygous or compound heterozygous carriers of the variants G20210A (c.*97 G > A) in F2 and p.R534Q in F5. We also document that F2 and F5 mutation carriers in the bottom 10% of the PRS distribution had a risk similar to that of the general population. We further show that PRS improved individual risk prediction beyond that of genetic and clinical risk factors. We investigated the extent to which venous and arterial thrombosis share clinical risk factors using Mendelian randomization, finding that some risk factors for arterial thrombosis were directionally concordant with VTE risk (for example, body mass index and smoking) whereas others were discordant (for example, systolic blood pressure and triglyceride levels).

Polygenic risk score association with multiple sclerosis susceptibility and phenotype in Europeans

Polygenic inheritance plays a pivotal role in driving multiple sclerosis susceptibility, an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the CNS. We developed polygenic risk scores (PRS) of multiple sclerosis and assessed associations with both disease status and severity in cohorts of European descent. The largest genome-wide association dataset for multiple sclerosis to date (n = 41 505) was leveraged to generate PRS scores, serving as an informative susceptibility marker, tested in two independent datasets, UK Biobank [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.74, P = 6.41 × 10-146] and Kaiser Permanente in Northern California (KPNC, AUC = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.76-0.82, P = 1.5 × 10-53). Individuals within the top 10% of PRS were at higher than 5-fold increased risk in UK Biobank (95% CI: 4.7-6, P = 2.8 × 10-45) and 15-fold higher risk in KPNC (95% CI: 10.4-24, P = 3.7 × 10-11), relative to the median decile. The cumulative absolute risk of developing multiple sclerosis from age 20 onwards was significantly higher in genetically predisposed individuals according to PRS. Furthermore, inclusion of PRS in clinical risk models increased the risk discrimination by 13% to 26% over models based only on conventional risk factors in UK Biobank and KPNC, respectively. Stratifying disease risk by gene sets representative of curated cellular signalling cascades, nominated promising genetic candidate programmes for functional characterization. These pathways include inflammatory signalling mediation, response to viral infection, oxidative damage, RNA polymerase transcription, and epigenetic regulation of gene expression to be among significant contributors to multiple sclerosis susceptibility. This study also indicates that PRS is a useful measure for estimating susceptibility within related individuals in multicase families. We show a significant association of genetic predisposition with thalamic atrophy within 10 years of disease progression in the UCSF-EPIC cohort (P < 0.001), consistent with a partial overlap between the genetics of susceptibility and end-organ tissue injury. Mendelian randomization analysis suggested an effect of multiple sclerosis susceptibility on thalamic volume, which was further indicated to be through horizontal pleiotropy rather than a causal effect. In summary, this study indicates important, replicable associations of PRS with enhanced risk assessment and radiographic outcomes of tissue injury, potentially informing targeted screening and prevention strategies.

Multi-ancestry and multi-trait genome-wide association meta-analyses inform clinical risk prediction for systemic lupus erythematosus

Systemic lupus erythematosus is a heritable autoimmune disease that predominantly affects young women. To improve our understanding of genetic etiology, we conduct multi-ancestry and multi-trait meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies, encompassing 12 systemic lupus erythematosus cohorts from 3 different ancestries and 10 genetically correlated autoimmune diseases, and identify 16 novel loci. We also perform transcriptome-wide association studies, computational drug repurposing analysis, and cell type enrichment analysis. We discover putative drug classes, including a histone deacetylase inhibitor that could be repurposed to treat lupus. We also identify multiple cell types enriched with putative target genes, such as non-classical monocytes and B cells, which may be targeted for future therapeutics. Using this newly assembled result, we further construct polygenic risk score models and demonstrate that integrating polygenic risk score with clinical lab biomarkers improves the diagnostic accuracy of systemic lupus erythematosus using the Vanderbilt BioVU and Michigan Genomics Initiative biobanks.

Significance tests for R2 of out-of-sample prediction using polygenic scores

The coefficient of determination (R²) is a well-established measure to indicate the predictive ability of polygenic scores (PGSs). However, the sampling variance of R² is rarely considered so that 95% confidence intervals (CI) are not usually reported. Moreover, when comparisons are made between PGSs based on different discovery samples, the sampling covariance of R² is required to test the difference between them. Here, we show how to estimate the variance and covariance of R² values to assess the 95% CI and p value of the R² difference. We apply this approach to real data calculating PGSs in 28,880 European participants derived from UK Biobank (UKBB) and Biobank Japan (BBJ) GWAS summary statistics for cholesterol and BMI. We quantify the significantly higher predictive ability of UKBB PGSs compared to BBJ PGSs (p value 7.6e-31 for cholesterol and 1.4e-50 for BMI). A joint model of UKBB and BBJ PGSs significantly improves the predictive ability, compared to a model of UKBB PGS only (p value 3.5e-05 for cholesterol and 1.3e-28 for BMI). We also show that the predictive ability of regulatory SNPs is significantly enriched over non-regulatory SNPs for cholesterol (p value 8.9e-26 for UKBB and 3.8e-17 for BBJ). We suggest that the proposed approach (available in R package r2redux) should be used to test the statistical significance of difference between pairs of PGSs, which may help to draw a correct conclusion about the comparative predictive ability of PGSs.

Global Biobank analyses provide lessons for developing polygenic risk scores across diverse cohorts

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been widely explored in precision medicine. However, few studies have thoroughly investigated their best practices in global populations across different diseases. We here utilized data from Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) to explore methodological considerations and PRS performance in 9 different biobanks for 14 disease endpoints. Specifically, we constructed PRSs using pruning and thresholding (P + T) and PRS-continuous shrinkage (CS). For both methods, using a European-based linkage disequilibrium (LD) reference panel resulted in comparable or higher prediction accuracy compared with several other non-European-based panels. PRS-CS overall outperformed the classic P + T method, especially for endpoints with higher SNP-based heritability. Notably, prediction accuracy is heterogeneous across endpoints, biobanks, and ancestries, especially for asthma, which has known variation in disease prevalence across populations. Overall, we provide lessons for PRS construction, evaluation, and interpretation using GBMI resources and highlight the importance of best practices for PRS in the biobank-scale genomics era.