An Object-Oriented Regression for Building Disease Predictive Models with Multiallelic HLA Genes

Genomic Machine Learning Meta-regression: Insights on Associations of Study Features With Reported Model Performance

Many studies have been conducted with the goal of correctly predicting diagnostic status of a disorder using the combination of genomic data and machine learning. It is often hard to judge which components of a study led to better results and whether better reported results represent a true improvement or an uncorrected bias inflating performance. We extracted information about the methods used and other differentiating features in genomic machine learning models. We used these features in linear regressions predicting model performance. We tested for univariate and multivariate associations as well as interactions between features. Of the models reviewed, 46% used feature selection methods that can lead to data leakage. Across our models, the number of hyperparameter optimizations reported, data leakage due to feature selection, model type, and modeling an autoimmune disorder were significantly associated with an increase in reported model performance. We found a significant, negative interaction between data leakage and training size. Our results suggest that methods susceptible to data leakage are prevalent among genomic machine learning research, resulting in inflated reported performance. Best practice guidelines that promote the avoidance and recognition of data leakage may help the field avoid biased results.

Research of Epidemic Big Data Based on Improved Deep Convolutional Neural Network

In recent years, with the acceleration of the aging process and the aggravation of life pressure, the proportion of chronic epidemics has gradually increased. A large amount of medical data will be generated during the hospitalization of diabetics. It will have important practical significance and social value to discover potential medical laws and valuable information among medical data. In view of this, an improved deep convolutional neural network (“CNN+” for short) algorithm was proposed to predict the changes of diabetes. Firstly, the bagging integrated classification algorithm was used instead of the output layer function of the deep CNN, which can help the improved deep CNN algorithm constructed for the data set of diabetic patients and improve the accuracy of classification. In this way, the “CNN+” algorithm can take the advantages of both the deep CNN and the bagging algorithm. On the one hand, it can extract the potential features of the data set by using the powerful feature extraction ability of deep CNN. On the other hand, the bagging integrated classification algorithm can be used for feature classification, so as to improve the classification accuracy and obtain better disease prediction effect to assist doctors in diagnosis and treatment. Experimental results show that compared with the traditional convolutional neural network and other classification algorithm, the “CNN+” model can get more reliable prediction results.

A systematic review of the applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning in autoimmune diseases

Autoimmune diseases are chronic, multifactorial conditions. Through machine learning (ML), a branch of the wider field of artificial intelligence, it is possible to extract patterns within patient data, and exploit these patterns to predict patient outcomes for improved clinical management. Here, we surveyed the use of ML methods to address clinical problems in autoimmune disease. A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, embase and computers and applied sciences complete databases. Relevant papers included "machine learning" or "artificial intelligence" and the autoimmune diseases search term(s) in their title, abstract or key words. Exclusion criteria: studies not written in English, no real human patient data included, publication prior to 2001, studies that were not peer reviewed, non-autoimmune disease comorbidity research and review papers. 169 (of 702) studies met the criteria for inclusion. Support vector machines and random forests were the most popular ML methods used. ML models using data on multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease were most common. A small proportion of studies (7.7% or 13/169) combined different data types in the modelling process. Cross-validation, combined with a separate testing set for more robust model evaluation occurred in 8.3% of papers (14/169). The field may benefit from adopting a best practice of validation, cross-validation and independent testing of ML models. Many models achieved good predictive results in simple scenarios (e.g. classification of cases and controls). Progression to more complex predictive models may be achievable in future through integration of multiple data types.

Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes

AIM

It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies.

METHODS

Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D.

RESULTS

In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10^-92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime.

CONCLUSION

Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations.

Validation of aspirin response-related transcripts in patients with coronary artery disease and preliminary investigation on CMTM5 function

Aspirin is widely used in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases, but the antiplatelet responses vary from one patient to another. To validate aspirin response related transcripts and illustrate their roles in predicting cardiovascular events, we have quantified the relative expression of 14 transcripts previously identified as related to high on-aspirin platelet reactivity (HAPR) in 223 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) on regular aspirin treatment. All patients were followed up regularly for cardiovascular events (CVE). The mean age of our enrolled population was 75.80±8.57years. HAPR patients showed no significant differences in terms of co-morbidities and combined drugs. Besides, the relative expression of HLA-DQA1 was significantly lower in low on-aspirin platelet reactivity (LAPR) patients, when compared with HAPR and high normal (HN) group (p=0.028). What's more, the number of arteries involved, HAPR status and the relative expression of CLU, CMTM5 and SPARC were independent risk factors for CVE during follow up (p<0.05). In addition, overexpression of CMTM5 attenuated endothelial cells (ECs) migration and proliferation, with significantly decreased phosphorylated-Akt levels, while its inhibition promoted these processes in vitro (p<0.05).Our study provides evidence that circulating transcripts might be potential biomarkers in predicting cardiovascular events. CMTM5 might exert anti-atherosclerotic effects via suppressing migration and proliferation in the vessel wall. Nevertheless, larger-scale and long-term studies are still needed.

Machine Learning and Data Mining Methods in Diabetes Research

The remarkable advances in biotechnology and health sciences have led to a significant production of data, such as high throughput genetic data and clinical information, generated from large Electronic Health Records (EHRs). To this end, application of machine learning and data mining methods in biosciences is presently, more than ever before, vital and indispensable in efforts to transform intelligently all available information into valuable knowledge. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is defined as a group of metabolic disorders exerting significant pressure on human health worldwide. Extensive research in all aspects of diabetes (diagnosis, etiopathophysiology, therapy, etc.) has led to the generation of huge amounts of data. The aim of the present study is to conduct a systematic review of the applications of machine learning, data mining techniques and tools in the field of diabetes research with respect to a) Prediction and Diagnosis, b) Diabetic Complications, c) Genetic Background and Environment, and e) Health Care and Management with the first category appearing to be the most popular. A wide range of machine learning algorithms were employed. In general, 85% of those used were characterized by supervised learning approaches and 15% by unsupervised ones, and more specifically, association rules. Support vector machines (SVM) arise as the most successful and widely used algorithm. Concerning the type of data, clinical datasets were mainly used. The title applications in the selected articles project the usefulness of extracting valuable knowledge leading to new hypotheses targeting deeper understanding and further investigation in DM.