MELD score as a predictor of liver failure and death in patients with acetaminophen-induced liver injury

Designing clinical trials to address alcohol use and alcohol-associated liver disease: an expert panel Consensus Statement

Most patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) engage in heavy drinking defined as 4 or more drinks per day (56 g) or 8 (112 g) or more drinks per week for women and 5 or more drinks per day (70 g) or 15 (210 g) or more drinks per week for men. Although abstinence from alcohol after diagnosis of ALD improves life expectancy and reduces the risk of decompensation of liver disease, few studies have evaluated whether treatment of alcohol use disorders will reduce progression of liver disease and improve liver-related outcomes. In November 2021, the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism commissioned a task force that included hepatologists, addiction medicine specialists, statisticians, clinical trialists and members of regulatory agencies to develop recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials to evaluate the effect of alcohol use, particularly treatment to reduce or eliminate alcohol use in patients with ALD. The task force conducted extensive reviews of relevant literature on alcohol use disorders and ALD. Findings were presented at one in-person meeting and discussed over the next 16 months to develop the final recommendations. As few clinical trials directly address this topic, the 28 recommendations approved by all members of the task force represent a consensus of expert opinions.

The chemokine CXCL14 is a novel early prognostic biomarker for poor outcome in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure are more likely to die while on the liver transplant waiting list than those with other causes of acute liver failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need for prognostic biomarkers that can predict the need for liver transplantation early after an acetaminophen overdose.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We evaluated the prognostic potential of plasma chemokine C-X-C motif ligand 14 (CXCL14) concentrations in patients with acetaminophen (APAP) overdose (n=50) and found that CXCL14 is significantly higher in nonsurviving patients compared to survivors with acute liver failure ( p < 0.001). Logistic regression and AUROC analyses revealed that CXCL14 outperformed the MELD score, better discriminating between nonsurvivors and survivors. We validated these data in a separate cohort of samples obtained from the Acute Liver Failure Study Group (n = 80), where MELD and CXCL14 had similar AUC (0.778), but CXCL14 demonstrated higher specificity (81.2 vs. 52.6) and positive predictive value (82.4 vs. 65.4) for death or need for liver transplantation. Next, combining the patient cohorts and using a machine learning training/testing scheme to mimic the clinical scenario, we found that CXCL14 outperformed MELD based on AUC (0.821 vs. 0.787); however, combining MELD and CXCL14 yielded the best AUC (0.860).

CONCLUSIONS

We find in 2 independent cohorts of acetaminophen overdose patients that circulating CXCL14 concentration is a novel early prognostic biomarker for poor outcomes, which may aid in guiding decisions regarding patient management. Moreover, our findings reveal that CXCL14 performs best when measured soon after patient presentation to the clinic, highlighting its importance for early warning of poor prognosis.

An international, multicenter, survey-based analysis of practice and management of acute liver failure

Acute liver failure (ALF) is an acute liver dysfunction with coagulopathy and HE in a patient with no known liver disease. As ALF is rare and large clinical trials are lacking, the level of evidence regarding its management is low-moderate, favoring heterogeneous clinical practice. In this international multicenter survey study, we aimed to investigate the current practice and management of patients with ALF. An online survey targeting physicians who care for patients with ALF was developed by the International Liver Transplantation Society ALF Special-Interest Group. The survey focused on the management and liver transplantation (LT) practices of ALF. Survey questions were summarized overall and by geographic region. A total of 267 physicians completed the survey, with a survey response rate of 21.36%. Centers from all continents were represented. More than 90% of physicians specialized in either transplant hepatology/surgery or anesthesiology/critical care. Two hundred fifty-two (94.4%) respondents' institutions offered LT. A total of 76.8% of respondents' centers had a dedicated liver-intensive or transplant-intensive care unit ( p < 0.001). The median time to LT was within 48 hours in 12.7% of respondents' centers, 72 hours in 35.6%, 1 week in 37.6%, and more than 1 week in 9.6% ( p < 0.001). Deceased donor liver graft (49.6%) was the most common type of graft offered. For consideration of LT, 84.8% of physicians used King's College Criteria, and 41.6% used Clichy Criteria. Significant differences were observed between Asia, Europe, and North America for offering LT, number of LTs performed, volume of patients with ALF, admission to a dedicated intensive care unit, median time to LT, type of liver graft, monitoring HE and intracranial pressure, management of coagulopathy, and utilization of different criteria for LT. In our study, we observed significant geographic differences in the practice and management of ALF. As ALF is rare, multicenter studies are valuable for identifying global practice.

Critical care management of acute liver failure

The management of acute liver failure (ALF) in modern hepatology intensive care units (ICU) has improved patient outcomes. Critical care management of hepatic encephalopathy, cerebral edema, fluid and electrolytes; prevention of infections and organ support are central to improved outcomes of ALF. In particular, the pathogenesis of encephalopathy is multifactorial, with ammonia, elevated intra-cranial pressure and systemic inflammation playing a central role. Although ALF remains associated with high mortality, the availability of supportive care, including organ failure support such as plasma exchange, timely mechanical ventilation or continuous renal replacement therapy, either conservatively manages patients with ALF or offers bridging therapy until liver transplantation. Thus, appropriate critical care management has improved the likelihood of patient recovery in ALF. ICU care interventions such as monitoring of cerebral edema, fluid status assessment and interventions for sepsis prevention, nutritional support and management of electrolytes can salvage a substantial proportion of patients. In this review, we discuss the key aspects of critical care management of ALF.

Correlation between serum pro-inflammatory cytokine levels and the prognosis of the patients with acute liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prognosis of acute liver failure (ALF) remains poor, and liver transplantation is an alternative treatment option. Assessing the prognosis of ALF is important in determining treatment strategies. Here, we investigated clinical factors including serum pro-inflammatory cytokine levels that are associated with the prognosis of ALF.

METHODS

Sixty-six patients who developed ALF were enrolled in this study. Serum concentrations of 12 pro-inflammatory cytokines were measured on admission. The prognosis and factors associated with survival and development of hepatic coma were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of 66 patients, 4 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 49 patients were rescued without liver transplantation, while the remaining 13 patients died. Serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-13, TNF, IFN -γ, IP-10, and G-CSF were significantly elevated in ALF patients. IL-4 and IL-8 levels were higher in patients who underwent liver transplantation or died than in rescued patients. Multivariable analysis identified age ≥ 55 years and IL-4 ≥ 1.2 pg/mL on admission as independent factors for mortality. Serum IL-8 levels were higher in patients with hepatic coma, and prothrombin-international normalized ratio ≥ 3.5 and IL-8 ≥ 77.2 pg/mL on admission were associated with development of hepatic coma after admission.

CONCLUSION

Serum levels of several pro-inflammatory cytokines were elevated in ALF patients. IL-4 and IL-8 were correlated with survival and development of hepatic coma after admission, respectively. Measurement of serum pro-inflammatory cytokines seems to be useful for the management of ALF.

Liver Transplantation for Acute Liver Failure- Indication, Prioritization, Timing, and Referral

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a major success story in gastroenterology, with improvements in critical care and liver transplant resulting in significant improvements in patient outcomes in the current era compared to the dismal survival rates in the pretransplant era. However, the ever-increasing list of transplant candidates and limited organ pool makes judicious patient selection and organ use mandatory to achieve good patient outcomes and prevent organ wastage. Several scoring systems exist to facilitate the identification of patients who need a liver transplant and would therefore need an early referral to a specialized liver unit. The timing of the liver transplant is also crucial as transplanting a patient too early would lead to those who would recover spontaneously receiving an organ (wastage), and a late decision might result in the patient becoming unfit for transplant (delisted) or have an advanced disease which would result in poor post-transplant outcomes. The current article reviews the indications and contraindications of liver transplant in ALF patients, the various prognostic scoring systems, etiology-specific outcomes, prioritization and timing of referral.

Acute Liver Failure Guidelines

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a rare, acute, potentially reversible condition resulting in severe liver impairment and rapid clinical deterioration in patients without preexisting liver disease. Due to the rarity of this condition, published studies are limited by the use of retrospective or prospective cohorts and lack of randomized controlled trials. Current guidelines represent the suggested approach to the identification, treatment, and management of ALF and represent the official practice recommendations of the American College of Gastroenterology. The scientific evidence was reviewed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation process to develop recommendations. When no robust evidence was available, expert opinions were summarized using Key Concepts. Considering the variety of clinical presentations of ALF, individualization of care should be applied in specific clinical scenarios.

Issues of intensive care and liver transplantation tactics in fulminant liver failure

Fulminant liver failure is usually characterized as severe acute liver injury with encephalopathy and synthetic dysfunction (international normalized ratio [INR] ≥1.5) in a patient without cirrhosis or previous liver disease. Management of patients with acute liver failure includes ensuring that the patient is cared for appropriately, monitoring for worsening liver failure, managing complications, and providing nutritional support. Patients with acute liver failure should be treated at a liver transplant center whenever possible. Serial laboratory tests are used to monitor the course of a patient's liver failure and to monitor for complications. It is necessary to monitor the level of aminotransferases and bilirubin in serum daily. More frequent monitoring (three to four times a day) of blood coagulation parameters, complete blood count, metabolic panels, and arterial blood gases should be performed. For some causes of acute liver failure, such as acetaminophen intoxication, treatment directed at the underlying cause may prevent the need for liver transplantation and reduce mortality. Lactulose has not been shown to improve overall outcomes, and it can lead to intestinal distention, which can lead to technical difficulties during liver transplantation. Early in acute liver failure, signs and symptoms of cerebral edema may be absent or difficult to detect. Complications of cerebral edema include increased intracranial pressure and herniation of the brain stem. General measures to prevent increased intracranial pressure include minimizing stimulation, maintaining an appropriate fluid balance, and elevating the head of the patient's bed. For patients at high risk of developing cerebral edema, we also offer hypertonic saline prophylaxis (3%) with a target serum sodium level of 145 to 155 mEq/L (level 2C). High-risk patients include patients with grade IV encephalopathy, high ammonia levels (>150 µmol/L), or acute renal failure, and patients requiring vasopressor support. Approximately 40 % of patients with acute liver failure recover spontaneously with supportive care. Predictive models have been developed to help identify patients who are unlikely to recover spontaneously, as the decision to undergo liver transplant depends in part on the likelihood of spontaneous recovery of the liver. However, among those who receive a transplant, the one-year survival rate exceeds 80 %, making this treatment the treatment of choice in this difficult patient population.

[Acute Liver Failure: Current Updates and Management]

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a rare disease condition with a dynamic clinical course and catastrophic outcomes. Several etiologies are involved in ALF. Hepatitis A and B infections and indiscriminate use of untested herbs or supplemental agents are the most common causes of ALF in Korea. Noninvasive neurological monitoring tools have been used in patients with ALF in recent times. Ongoing improvements in intensive care, including continuous renal replacement therapy, therapeutic plasma exchange, vasopressor, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, have reduced the mortality rate of patients with ALF. However, liver transplantation is still the most effective treatment for patients with intractable ALF. There is a need for further research in the areas of better prognostication and precise selection of patients for emergency transplantation.

Comparison of the prognostic models for mortality in idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury

BACKGROUND

Several models have been proposed to predict acute liver failure/death in patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI), but the predictive performances of them have not been systematically compared. We aim to compare the current models for their predictive potency of mortality at DILI onset.

METHODS

DILI patients hospitalized at both Beijing Friendship Hospital and the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital were categorized into death/liver transplantation (LT) or survival without LT group. Predictive potency of 28-day, 90-day, 6-month and 12-month death/LT outcomes of Hy's Law, nHy's Law, Robles-Diaz Model, drug-induced liver toxicity (DrILTox ALF) Score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) Score, and Ghabril Model was compared by Delong method.

RESULTS

A total of 6.3% (83/1314) patients died or received LT within 12 months after DILI onset. The area under receiver operating characteristic of Hy's Law, nHy's Law, and Robles-Diaz Model was all lower than 0.750 for the prediction of within 12 months' mortality. DrILTox ALF Score, MELD Score and Ghabril Model showed better predictive potency of 28-day [0.896 (0.878-0.912), 0.934 (0.919-0.947), 0.935 (0.921-0.948), respectively], 90-day [0.883 (0.864-0.899), 0.951 (0.938-0.962), 0.952 (0.939-0.963), respectively], 6-month [0.820 (0.799-0.841), 0.905 (0.888-0.921) and 0.908 (0.891-0.923), respectively] and 12-month [0.801 (0.779-0.823), 0.882 (0.863-0.899) and 0.885 (0.866-0.902), respectively] mortality.

CONCLUSION

Despite the difference of clinical characteristics and implicated-drug categories between China and industrialized countries, we demonstrate that MELD Score and Ghabril Model have the best predictive performance in the prediction of mortality within 12 months after DILI onset.

Management of Acute Liver Failure: Update 2022

Abbreviated pathogenesis and clinical course of the acute liver failure syndrome. The pathogenesis and clinical course of the syndrome of acute liver failure (ALF) differs depending upon the etiology of the primary liver injury. In turn, the severity of the liver injury and resulting synthetic failure is often the primary determinant of whether a patient is referred for emergency liver transplantation. Injuries by viral etiologies trigger the innate immune system via pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs), while toxin-induced (and presumably ischemia-induced) injuries do so via damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs). The course of the clinical syndrome further depends upon the relative intensity and composition of cytokine release, resulting in an early proinflammatory phenotype (SIRS) and later compensatory anti-inflammatory response phenotype (CARS). The outcomes of overwhelming immune activation are the systemic (extrahepatic) features of ALF (cardiovascular collapse, cerebral edema, acute kidney injury, respiratory failure, sepsis) which ultimately determine the likelihood of death.Acute liver failure (ALF) continues to carry a high risk of mortality or the need for transplantation despite recent improvements in overall outcomes over the past two decades. Optimal management begins with identifying that liver failure is indeed present and its etiology, since outcomes and the need for transplantation vary widely across the different etiologies. Most causes of ALF can be divided into hyperacute (ischemia and acetaminophen) and subacute types (other etiologies), based on time of evolution of signs and symptoms of liver failure; the former evolve in 3 to 4 days and the latter typically in 2 to 4 weeks. Both involve intense release of cytokines and hepatocellular contents into the circulation with multiorgan effects/consequences.Management involves optimizing fluid balance and cardiovascular support, including the use of continuous renal replacement therapy, vasopressors, and pulmonary ventilation. Early evaluation for liver transplantation is advised particularly for acetaminophen toxicity, which evolves so rapidly that delay is likely to lead to death.Vasopressor support, high-grade hepatic encephalopathy, and unfavorable (subacute) etiologies heighten the need for urgent listing for liver transplantation. Prognostic scores such as Kings Criteria, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, and the Acute Liver Failure Group prognostic index take these features into account and provide reasonable but imperfect predictive accuracy. Future treatments may include liver support devices and/or agents that improve hepatocyte regeneration.

Drug-induced liver injury at a tertiary care centre in Germany: Model for end-stage liver disease is the best predictor of outcome

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Agents most frequently inducing idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury (DILI) differ between countries worldwide. Besides, there is no consistent data on the best model predicting mortality or the need for liver transplantation in DILI. We here analysed the DILI cohort of our centre with regard to causative drugs and clinical outcome.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 157 consecutive severe DILI patients presenting to our tertiary care centre in Hamburg, Germany, from 2008 to 2018, was performed.

RESULTS

The most frequent putatively causative drugs were phenprocoumon (n = 21), metamizole (n = 17) and flupirtine (n = 6). The mean values of ALT, bilirubin and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at the time of hospitalisation were 1201 U/L (SD: 1169 U/L), 6.8 mg/dL (SD: 7 mg/dL) and 17 (SD: 8). About 71% of all cases were treated with steroids or steroids combined with n-acetylcysteine. About 12.1% of all DILI cases had a poor outcome (liver transplantation and/or death). At the time of admission, MELD score performed better than Hy's law, the ratio (R) or the new ratio (nR) on their own or combined with bilirubin, regarding sensitivity or specificity for poor outcome. MELD score had a c-statistic of 0.847 (95% CI: 0.731-0.964). Furthermore, the cut-off of 18 MELD points had a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 72% for poor outcome.

CONCLUSION

Phenprocoumon and metamizole are frequent causative drugs for DILI in Germany. In comparison to other prognostic scores, MELD score ≥18 at the time of admission performed best in our cohort for the prediction of poor outcome in DILI.

Higher circulating natural killer cells and lower lactate levels at admission predict spontaneous survival in non-acetaminophen induced acute liver failure

Massive cellular necrosis in acute liver failure (ALF) is dominantly immune mediated and innate immune cells are major pathophysiological determinants in liver damage. In fifty ALF and fifteen healthy, immune cells phenotyping by flow-cytometry, DAMPs using ELISA were analysed and correlated with clinical and biochemical parameters. ALF patients (aged 27 ± 9 yr, 56% males, 78% viral aetiology) showed no difference in neutrophils and classical monocytes, but significantly increased intermediate monocytes (CD14⁺CD16⁺) (p < 0.01), decreased non-classical monocytes (CD14^-CD16⁺) and CD3^-veCD16⁺CD56⁺ NK cells compared to HC. ALF patients who survived, showed higher NK cells (9.28 vs. 5.1%, p < 0.001) among lymphocytes and lower serum lactate levels (6.1 vs. 28, Odds ratio 2.23, CI 1.27-3.94) than non- survivors had higher. Logistic regression model predicted the combination of lactate levels with NK cell percentage at admission for survival. In conclusion, Combination of NK cell frequency among lymphocytes and lactate levels at admission can reliably predict survival of ALF patients.

Liver transplantation in acute liver failure: Dilemmas and challenges

Acute liver failure (ALF) refers to a state of severe hepatic injury that leads to altered coagulation and sensorium in the absence of pre-existing liver disease. ALF has different causes, but the clinical characteristics are strikingly similar. In clinical practice, however, inconsistency in the definition of ALF worldwide and confusion regarding the existence of pre-existing liver disease raise diagnostic dilemmas. ALF mortality rates used to be over 80% in the past; however, survival rates on medical treatment have significantly improved in recent years due to a greater understanding of pathophysiology and advances in critical care management. The survival rates in acetaminophen-associated ALF have become close to the post-transplant survival rates. Given that liver transplantation (LT) is an expensive treatment that involves a major surgical operation in critically ill patients and lifelong immunosuppression, it is very important to select accurate patients who may benefit from it. Still, emergency LT remains a lifesaving procedure for many ALF patients. However, there is a lack of consistency in current prognostic models that hampers the selection of transplant candidates in a timely and precise manner. The other problems associated with LT in ALF are the shortage of graft, development of contraindications on the waiting list, vaguely defined delisting criteria, time constraints for pre-transplant evaluation, ethical concerns, and comparatively poor post-transplant outcomes in ALF. Therefore, there is a desperate need to establish accurate prognostic models and explore the roles of evolving adjunctive and alternative therapies, such as liver support systems, plasma exchange, stem cells, auxiliary LT, and so on, to enhance transplant-free survival and to fill the void created by the graft shortage

Predicting mortality from acetaminophen poisoning shortly after hospital presentation

AIMS

Early identification of patients likely to die after acetaminophen (APAP) poisoning remains challenging. We sought to compare the sensitivity and time to fulfilment (latency) of established prognostic criteria.

METHODS

Three physician toxicologists independently classified every in-hospital death associated with APAP overdose from eight large Canadian cities over three decades using the Relative Contribution to Fatality scale from the American Association of Poison Control Centres. The sensitivity and latency were calculated for each of the following criteria: King's College Hospital (KCH), Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≥33, lactate ≥3.5 mmol/L, phosphate ≥1.2 mmol/L 48+ hours post-ingestion, as well as combinations thereof.

RESULTS

A total of 162 in-hospital deaths were classified with respect to APAP as follows: 26 Undoubtedly, 40 Probably, 27 Contributory, 14 Probably not, 25 Clearly not, and 30 Unknown. Cases from the first three classes (combined into n = 93 "APAP deaths") typically presented with supratherapeutic APAP concentrations, hepatotoxicity, acidaemia, coagulopathy and/or encephalopathy, and began antidotal treatment a median of 12 hours (IQR 3.4-30 h) from the end of ingestion. Among all patients deemed "APAP deaths", meeting either KCH or lactate criteria demonstrated the highest sensitivity (94%; 95% CI 86-98%), and the shortest latency from hospital arrival to criterion fulfilment (median 4.2 h; IQR 1.0-16 h). In comparison, the MELD criterion demonstrated a substantially lower sensitivity (55%; 43-66%) and longer latency (52 h; 4.4-∞ h, where "∞" denotes death prior to criterion becoming positive).

CONCLUSIONS

Meeting either KCH or serum lactate criteria identifies most patients who die from acetaminophen poisoning at or shortly after hospital presentation.

Elevated Serum Liver-Type Fatty Acid Binding Protein Levels in Non-acetaminophen Acute Liver Failure Patients with Organ Dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Liver-type fatty acid binding protein (FABP1) has previously been demonstrated to improve prognostic discrimination in acetaminophen (APAP)-induced ALF but has not been investigated in other etiologies of ALF.

AIM

To determine whether FABP1 levels (early: admission or late: days 3-5) are associated with 21-day transplant-free survival in non-APAP ALF.

METHODS

FABP1 was measured in serum samples from 384 ALF patients (n = 88 transplant-free survivors (TFS), n = 296 died/LT-NTFS) using solid-phase enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and analyzed with US ALFSG registry data.

RESULTS

Of 384 ALF patients (autoimmune hepatitis n = 125, drug-induced liver injury n = 141, Hepatitis B n = 118), 177 (46%) patients received LT. Early FABP1 levels were significantly higher in ALF patients requiring vasopressor support (203.4 vs. 76.3 ng/mL) and renal replacement therapy (203.4 vs. 78.8 ng/mL; p < 0.001 for both). Late FABP1 levels were significantly higher in patients requiring mechanical ventilation (77.5 vs. 53.3 ng/mL), vasopressor support (116.4 vs. 53.3 ng/mL) and in patients with grade 3/4 hepatic encephalopathy (71.4 vs. 51.4 ng/mL; p = 0.03 for all). Late FABP1 levels were significantly lower in TFS patients (TFS 54 vs. NTFS 66 ng/mL; p = 0.049) but not admission (TFS 96 vs. NTFS 87 ng/mL; p = 0.67). After adjusting for significant covariates, serum FABP1 did not discriminate significantly between TFS and patients who died/received LT at day 21 either on admission (p = 0.29) or late (days 3-5, p = 0.087) time points.

CONCLUSION

In this first report of FABP1 in non-APAP ALF, FABP1 levels at late time points (days 3-5) were significantly lower in ALF patients who were alive without transplant at day 21 but not after adjusting for covariates reflecting severity of illness. Higher FABP1 levels were associated with the presence of increased organ failure.

Acute liver failure

Acute liver failure is a rare and severe consequence of abrupt hepatocyte injury, and can evolve over days or weeks to a lethal outcome. A variety of insults to liver cells result in a consistent pattern of rapid-onset elevation of aminotransferases, altered mentation, and disturbed coagulation. The absence of existing liver disease distinguishes acute liver failure from decompensated cirrhosis or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Causes of acute liver failure include paracetamol toxicity, hepatic ischaemia, viral and autoimmune hepatitis, and drug-induced liver injury from prescription drugs, and herbal and dietary supplements. Diagnosis requires careful review of medications taken, and serological testing for possible viral exposure. Because of its rarity, acute liver failure has not been studied in large, randomised trials, and most treatment recommendations represent expert opinion. Improvements in management have resulted in lower mortality, although liver transplantation, used in nearly 30% of patients with acute liver failure, still provides a life-saving alternative to medical management.

Predicting daily outcomes in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure patients with machine learning techniques

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Assessing prognosis for acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) patients during the first week of hospitalization often presents significant challenges. Current models such as the King's College Criteria (KCC) and the Acute Liver Failure Study Group (ALFSG) Prognostic Index are developed to predict outcome using only a single time point on hospital admission. Models using longitudinal data are not currently available for APAP-ALF patients. We aim to develop and compare performance of prediction models for outcomes during the first week of hospitalization for APAP-ALF patients.

METHODS

Models are developed for the ALFSG registry data to predict longitudinal outcomes for 1042 APAP-ALF patients enrolled 01/1998-02/2016. The primary outcome is defined as daily low versus high coma grade. Accuracy in prediction of outcome (AC), sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) are compared between the following models: classification and regression tree, random forest, frequentist generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Bayesian GLMM, BiMM tree, and BiMM forest using original and imputed datasets.

RESULTS

BiMM tree offers predictive (test set) 63% AC, 72% SP and 53% SN for the original dataset, whereas BiMM forest offers predictive (test set) 69% AC, 63% SP and 74% SN for the imputed dataset. BiMM tree has the highest AUC for the original testing dataset (0.697), whereas BiMM forest and standard random forest have the highest AUC for the imputed testing dataset (0.749). The three most important predictors of daily outcome for the BiMM tree are pressor use, bilirubin and creatinine. The BiMM forest model identifies lactate, ammonia and ALT as the three most important predictors of outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

BiMM tree offers a prognostic tool for APAP-ALF patients, which has good accuracy and simple interpretation of predictors which are consistent with clinical observations. BiMM tree and forest models are developed using the first week of in-patient data and are appropriate for predicting outcome over time. While the BiMM forest has slightly higher predictive AC, the BiMM tree model is simpler to use at the bedside.

[Acute liver failure]

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a rare condition with fatal outcome. Characteristic is rapid onset of liver damage without preexisting liver diseases, including hepatic encephalopathy and coagulopathy. Early and correct diagnosis is essential for further management of patients, since diagnosis impacts therapy choice. Survival of patients with ALF has improved dramatically due to advances in critical care medicine and the use of liver transplantation.

Liver maximum capacity (LiMAx) test as a helpful prognostic tool in acute liver failure with sepsis: a case report

Background

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a life-threatening entity particularly when infectious complications worsen the clinical course. Urgent liver transplantation (LT) is frequently the only curative treatment. However, in some cases, recovery is observed under conservative treatment. Therefore, prognostic tools for estimating course of the disease are of great clinical interest. Since laboratory parameters sometimes lack sensitivity and specificity, enzymatic liver function measured by liver maximum capacity (LiMAx) test may offer novel and valuable additional information in this setting.

Case presentation

We here report the case of a formerly healthy 20-year old male caucasian patient who was admitted to our clinic for ALF of unknown origin in December 2017. Laboratory parameters confirmed the diagnosis with an initial MELD score of 28 points. Likewise, enzymatic liver function was significantly impaired with a value of 147 [> 315] μg/h/kg. Clinical and biochemical analyses for viral-, autoimmune-, or drug-induced hepatitis were negative. Liver synthesis parameters further deteriorated reaching a MELD score of 40 points whilst clinical course was complicated by septic pneumonia leading to severe hepatic encephalopathy grade III-IV, finally resulting in mechanical ventilation of the patient. Interestingly, although clinical course and laboratory data suggested poor outcome, serial LiMAx test revealed improvement of the enzymatic liver function at this time point increasing to 169 μg/h/kg. Clinical condition and laboratory data slowly improved likewise, however with significant time delay of 11 days. Finally, the patient could be dismissed from our clinic after 37 days.

Conclusion

Estimating prognosis in patients with ALF is challenging by use of the established scores. In our case, improvement of enzymatic liver function measured by the LiMAx test was the first parameter predicting beneficial outcome in a patient with ALF complicated by sepsis.

Beyond KCH selection and options in acute liver failure

The King’s prognostic criteria for patients with acute liver failure (ALF) introduced in 1989 have been used worldwide. This distinguished for the first time cases with ‘hyper-acute’ course (characteristically paracetamol overdose) where there is a better chance of recovery with medical supportive care alone from those etiologies with a less acute course and paradoxically lower chances of ‘spontaneous’ recovery. Ongoing use showed the limited sensitivity of the criteria to constitute a significant practical limitation. Subsequent models including the MELD score and composite ones with markers of necrosis, an apoptotic liver cell death, proposed to improve sensitivity did not have the required high specificity. Two recent models utilizing new availability of web- and app-based computing delivering outcome predication through sophisticated algorithms are described. The first is a dynamic model described for paracetamol-induced ALF based upon admission findings and sequential variables over the first 2 days. The new model of the US Acute Liver Failure group was devised to cover all etiologies of ALF for predicting ‘transplant-free’ survival and accurately predicated spontaneous survival in two-thirds of cases. Improved survival results with medical management, particularly in hyper-acute cases, now approach those obtained with successful liver transplant and have raised the question of transplant benefit. Also considered in the review are new non-transplant approaches to treatment including the use of plasma exchange and based on successful results in acute-on-chronic liver failure, agents to modulate and improve hepatic regeneration.

Prognostic Models in Acute Liver Failure

There is a strong imperative to develop valid and accurate prognostic modeling for acute liver failure (ALF). Despite the numerous clinical models that have been proposed thus far and the use of some such models, that is, King's College Criteria and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, in clinical practice to aid decision-making, there is a significant need for improvement for determining patients' clinical course, survival, and requirement for liver transplantation. Future prognostic models shall need a stronger statistical foundation and accountability for time and variability in the clinical course of ALF and be applied for pretransplant and posttransplant outcomes.

Acetaminophen (APAP or N-Acetyl-p-Aminophenol) and Acute Liver Failure

Acetaminophen (APAP) is the leading cause of acute liver failure (ALF), although the worldwide frequency is variable. APAP hepatotoxicity develops either following intentional overdose or unintentional ingestion (therapeutic misadventure) in the background of several factors, such as concomitant use of alcohol and certain medications that facilitate the formation of reactive and toxic metabolites. Spontaneous survival is more common in APAP-induced ALF compared with non-APAP etiologies. N-acetylcysteine is recommended for all patients with APAP-induced ALF and it reduces mortality. Liver transplantation should be offered early to those who are unlikely to survive based on described prognostic criteria.

Risk stratification after paracetamol overdose using mechanistic biomarkers: results from two prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Paracetamol overdose is common but patient stratification is suboptimal. We investigated the usefulness of new biomarkers that have either enhanced liver specificity (microRNA-122 [miR-122]) or provide mechanistic insights (keratin-18 [K18], high mobility group box-1 [HMGB1], and glutamate dehydrogenase [GLDH]). The use of these biomarkers could help stratify patients for their risk of liver injury at hospital presentation.

METHODS

Using data from two prospective cohort studies, we assessed the potential for biomarkers to stratify patients who overdose with paracetamol. We completed two independent prospective studies: a derivation study (MAPP) in eight UK hospitals and a validation study (BIOPAR) in ten UK hospitals. Patients in both cohorts were adults (≥18 years in England, ≥16 years in Scotland), were diagnosed with paracetamol overdose, and gave written informed consent. Patients who needed intravenous acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose had circulating biomarkers measured at hospital presentation. The primary endpoint was acute liver injury indicating need for continued acetylcysteine treatment beyond the standard course (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] activity >100 U/L). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were applied to assess endpoint prediction.

FINDINGS

Between June 2, 2010, and May 29, 2014, 1187 patients who required acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose were recruited (985 in the MAPP cohort; 202 in the BIOPAR cohort). In the derivation and validation cohorts, acute liver injury was predicted at hospital presentation by miR-122 (derivation cohort ROC-area under the curve [AUC] 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·98]), HMGB1 (0·95 [0·93-0·98]), and full-length K18 (0·95 [0·92-0·97]). Results were similar in the validation cohort (miR-122 AUC 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·99], HMGB1 0·98 [0·96-0·99], and full-length K18 0·93 [0·86-0·99]). A combined model of miR-122, HMGB1, and K18 predicted acute liver injury better than ALT alone (cfNRI 1·95 [95% CI 1·87-2·03], p<0·0001 in the MAPP cohort; 1·54 [1·08-2·00], p<0·0001 in the BIOPAR cohort).

INTERPRETATION

Personalised treatment pathways could be developed by use of miR-122, HMGB1, and full-length K18 at hospital presentation for patient stratification. This prospective study supports their use for hepatic safety assessment of new medicines.

FUNDING

Edinburgh and Lothians Health Foundation, UK Medical Research Council.

Development of an organ failure score in acute liver failure for transplant selection and identification of patients at high risk of futility

INTRODUCTION

King's College Hospital criteria are currently used to select liver transplant candidates in acetaminophen-related acute liver failure (ALF). Although widely accepted, they show a poor sensitivity in predicting pre-transplant mortality and cannot predict the outcome after surgery. In this study we aimed to develop a new prognostic score that can allow patient selection for liver transplantation more appropriately and identify patients at high risk of futile transplantation.

METHODS

We analysed consecutive patients admitted to the Royal Free and Beaujon Hospitals between 1990 and 2015. Clinical and laboratory data at admission were collected. Predictors of 3-month mortality in the non-transplanted patients admitted to the Royal Free Hospital were used to develop the new score, which was then validated against the Beaujon cohort. The Beaujon-transplanted group was also used to assess the ability of the new score in identifying patients at high risk of transplant futility.

RESULTS

152 patients were included of who 44 were transplanted. SOFA, CLIF-C OF and CLIF-ACLF scores were the best predictors of 3-month mortality among non-transplanted patients. CLIF-C OF score and high dosages of norepinephrine requirement were the only significant predictors of 3-month mortality in the non-transplanted patients, and therefore were included in the ALF-OFs score. In non-transplanted patients, ALF-OFs showed good performance in both exploratory (AUC = 0.89; sensitivity = 82.6%; specificity = 89.5%) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.988; sensitivity = 100%; specificity = 92.3%). ALF-OFs score was also able to identify patients at high risk of transplant futility (AUC = 0.917; sensitivity = 100%; specificity = 79.2%).

CONCLUSION

ALF-OFs is a new prognostic score in acetaminophen-related ALF that can predict both the need for liver transplant and high risk of transplant futility, improving candidate selection for liver transplantation.

Refining Liver Safety Risk Assessment: Application of Mechanistic Modeling and Serum Biomarkers to Cimaglermin Alfa (GGF2) Clinical Trials

Cimaglermin alfa (GGF2) is a recombinant human protein growth factor in development for heart failure. Phase I trials were suspended when two cimaglermin alfa‐treated subjects experienced concomitant elevations in serum aminotransferases and total bilirubin, meeting current US Food and Drug Administration criteria for a serious liver safety signal (i.e., “Hy's Law”). We assayed mechanistic biomarkers in archived clinical trial serum samples which confirmed the hepatic origin of the aminotransferase elevations in these two subjects and identified apoptosis as the major mode of hepatocyte death. Using a mathematical model of drug‐induced liver injury (DILIsym) and a simulated population, we estimated that the maximum hepatocyte loss in these two subjects was <13%, which would not result in liver dysfunction sufficient to significantly increase serum bilirubin levels. We conclude that the two subjects should not be considered Hy's Law cases and that mechanistic biomarkers and modeling can aid in refining liver safety risk assessment in clinical trials.

Elevated FABP1 serum levels are associated with poorer survival in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure

Acetaminophen (APAP)-induced acute liver failure (ALF) is associated with significant mortality. Traditional prognostic scores lack sensitivity. Serum liver-type fatty acid binding protein (FABP1) early (day 1) or late (day 3-5) levels are associated with 21-day mortality in the absence of liver transplant. Serum samples from 198 APAP-ALF patients (nested case-control study with 99 survivors, 99 nonsurvivors) were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with clinical data from the US Acute Liver Failure Study Group registry (1998-2014). APAP-ALF survivors had significantly lower serum FABP1 levels early (238.6 versus 690.8 ng/mL, P < 0.0001) and late (148.4 versus 612.3 ng/mL, P < 0.0001) compared with nonsurvivors. FABP1 > 350 ng/mL was associated with significantly higher risk of death at early (P = 0.0004) and late (P < 0.0001) time points. Increased serum FABP1 early (log FABP1 odds ratio = 1.31, P = 0.027) and late (log FABP1 odds ratio = 1.50, P = 0.005) were associated with significantly increased 21-day mortality after adjusting for significant covariates (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, vasopressor use). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for early and late multivariable models were 0.778 and 0.907, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the King's College criteria (early, 0.552 alone, 0.711 with FABP1; late, 0.604 alone, 0.797 with FABP1) and the Acute Liver Failure Study Group prognostic index (early, 0.686 alone, 0.766 with FABP1; late, 0.711 alone, 0.815 with FABP1) significantly improved with the addition of FABP1 (P < 0.002 for all).

CONCLUSION

In patients with APAP-ALF, FABP1 may have good potential to discriminate survivors from nonsurvivors and may improve models currently used in clinical practice; validation of FABP1 as a clinical prediction tool in APAP-ALF warrants further investigation. (Hepatology 2017;65:938-949).

The effect of renal dysfunction and haemodialysis on circulating liver specific miR-122

AIMS

microRNA-122 (miR-122) is a hepatotoxicity biomarker with utility in the management of paracetamol overdose and in drug development. Renal dysfunction and haemodialysis have been associated with a reduction in circulating microRNA. The objective of this study was to determine their effect on miR-122.

METHODS

Blood samples were collected from 17 patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on haemodialysis, 22 healthy controls, 30 patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and 15 patients post-kidney transplantation. All had normal standard liver function tests. Samples from ESRD patients were collected immediately pre- and post-haemodialysis. Serum alanine transaminase activity (ALT), miR-122 and miR-885 (liver enriched) were compared.

RESULTS

Circulating miR-122 was substantially reduced in ESRD patients pre-haemodialysis compared with the other groups (19.0-fold lower than healthy controls; 21.7-fold lower than CKD). Haemodialysis increased miR-122 from a median value of 6.7 × 10³ (2.3 × 10³ -1.4 × 10⁴ ) to 1.6 × 10⁴ (5.4 × 10³ -3.2 × 10⁴ ) copies ml^-1 . The increase in miR-122 did not correlate with dialysis adequacy. miR-122 was reduced in the argonaute 2 bound fraction pre-haemodialysis; this fraction was increased post-dialysis. There was no change in miR-122 associated with extracellular vesicles. miR-885 was also reduced in ESRD patients (4-fold compared to healthy subjects) and increased by haemodialysis.

CONCLUSION

miR-122 is substantially lower in ESRD compared to healthy controls, patients with CKD and transplanted patients. Haemodialysis increases the concentration of miR-122. These data need to be considered when interpreting liver injury using miR-122 in patients with ESRD on dialysis, and specific reference ranges that define normal in this setting may need to be developed.

Prognostic modeling in pediatric acute liver failure

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only proven treatment for pediatric acute liver failure (PALF). However, over a period of time, spontaneous native liver survival is increasingly reported, making us wonder if we are overtransplanting children with acute liver failure (ALF). An effective prognostic model for PALF would help direct appropriate organ allocation. Only patients who would die would undergo LT, and those who would spontaneously recover would avoid unnecessary LT. Deriving and validating such a model for PALF, however, encompasses numerous challenges. In particular, the heterogeneity of age and etiology in PALF, as well as a lack of understanding of the natural history of the disease, contributed by the availability of LT has led to difficulties in prognostic model development. Several prognostic laboratory variables have been identified, and the incorporation of these variables into scoring systems has been attempted. A reliable targeted prognostic model for ALF in Wilson's disease has been established and externally validated. The roles of physiological, immunological, and metabolomic parameters in prognosis are being investigated. This review discusses the challenges with prognostic modeling in PALF and describes predictive methods that are currently available and in development for the future. Liver Transplantation 22 1418-1430 2016 AASLD.

Clinical management of acute liver failure: Results of an international multi-center survey

AIM

To assess the practice of caring for acute liver failure (ALF) patients in varying geographic locations and medical centers.

METHODS

Members of the European Acute Liver Failure Consortium completed an 88-item questionnaire detailing management of ALF. Responses from 22 transplantation centers in 11 countries were analyzed, treating between 300 and 500 ALF cases and performing over 100 liver transplants (LT) for ALF annually. The questions pertained to details of the institution and their clinical activity, standards of care, referral and admission, ward- based care versus intensive care unit (ICU) as well as questions regarding liver transplantation - including criteria, limitations, and perceived performance. Clinical data was also collected from 13 centres over a 3 mo period.

RESULTS

The interval between referral and admission of ALF patients to specialized units was usually less than 24 h and once admitted, treatment was provided by a multidisciplinary team. Principles of care of patients with ALF were similar among centers, particularly in relation to recognition of severity and care of the more critically ill. Centers exhibited similarities in thresholds for ICU admission and management of severe hepatic encephalopathy. Over 80% of centers administered n-acetyl-cysteine to ICU patients for non-paracetamol-related ALF. There was significant divergence in the use of prophylactic antibiotics and anti-fungals, lactulose, nutritional support and imaging investigations in admitted patients and in the monitoring and treatment of intra-cranial pressure (ICP). ICP monitoring was employed in 12 centers, with the most common indications being papilledema and renal failure. Most patients listed for transplantation underwent surgery within an average waiting time of 1-2 d. Over a period of 3 mo clinical data from 85 ALF patients was collected. Overall patient survival at 90-d was 76%. Thirty six percent of patients underwent emergency LT, with a 90% post transplant survival to hospital discharge, 42% survived with medical management alone.

CONCLUSION

Alongside similarities in principles of care of ALF patients, major areas of divergence were present in key areas of diagnosis, monitoring, treatment and decision to transplant.

Development of a Model to Predict Transplant-free Survival of Patients With Acute Liver Failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with acute liver failure (ALF) have a high risk of death that can be substantially reduced with liver transplantation. It is a challenge to predict which patients with ALF will survive without liver transplant because available prognostic scoring systems are inadequate. We devised a mathematical model, using a large dataset collected by the Acute Liver Failure Study Group, which can predict transplant-free survival in patients with ALF.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 1974 subjects who met criteria for ALF (coagulopathy and hepatic encephalopathy within 26 weeks of the first symptoms, without pre-existing liver disease) enrolled in the Acute Liver Failure Study Group database from January 1, 1998 through June 11, 2013. We randomly assigned the subjects to development and validation cohorts. Data from the development cohort were analyzed to identify factors associated with transplant-free survival (alive without transplantation by 21 days after admission to the study). Statistically significant variables were used to create a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Most subjects were women (70%) and white (78%); acetaminophen overdose was the most common cause (48% of subjects). The rate of transplant-free survival was 50%. Admission values of hepatic encephalopathy grade, ALF etiology, vasopressor use, and log transformations of bilirubin and international normalized ratio were significantly associated with transplant-free survival, based on logistic regression analysis. In the validation cohort, the resulting model predicted transplant-free survival with a C statistic value of 0.84, 66.3% accuracy (95% confidence interval, 63.1%-69.4%), 37.1% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 32.5%-41.8%), and 95.3% specificity (95% confidence interval, 92.9%-97.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from the Acute Liver Failure Study Group, we developed a model that predicts transplant-free survival of patients with ALF based on easily identifiable hospital admission data. External validation studies are required.

Acute Liver Failure: Diagnosis and Management

Acute liver failure is life threatening liver injury with coagulopathy and hepatic encephalopathy within 26 weeks and generally, in the absence of preexisting liver disease. Fulminant liver failure occurs when hepatic encephalopathy occurs within 8 weeks of jaundice. The majority of patients with ALF are women with the median age of 38 years. In the United States, drug induced liver injury including acetaminophen causes the majority of ALF cases. The etiology of ALF should be determined, if possible, because many causes have a specific treatment. The mainstay for ALF is supportive care and liver transplantation, if necessary. There are multiple prognostic criteria available. Prognosis can be poor and patients should be referred to a liver transplantation center as soon as possible.

[Acute liver failure]

Das akute Leberversagen (ALV) ist ein seltenes, aber lebensbedrohliches Zustandsbild. Charakteristisch ist das rasche Auftreten eines schweren Leberschadens mit hepatozellulärer Nekrose und eingeschränkter Leberfunktion. Bei weiterhin hoher Mortalität ist ein frühzeitiges Erkennen und Einleiten einer ursachenspezifischen unterstützenden sowie v. a. intensivmedizinischen symptomatischen Therapie essenziell. Durch Fortschritte im Bereich der intensivmedizinischen Behandlung von Patienten mit akutem Leberversagen sowie der Lebertransplantation konnte das Überleben deutlich verbessert werden.

Ability of King's College Criteria and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Scores to Predict Mortality of Patients With Acute Liver Failure: A Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several prognostic factors are used to identify patients with acute liver failure (ALF) who require emergency liver transplantation. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the accuracy of King's College criteria (KCC) versus the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores in predicting hospital mortality among patients with ALF.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of the literature for articles published from 2001 through 2015 that compared the accuracy of the KCC with MELD scores in predicting hospital mortality in patients with ALF. We identified 23 studies (comprising 2153 patients) and assessed the quality of data, and then performed a meta-analysis of pooled sensitivity and specificity values, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and summary receiver operating characteristic curves. Subgroups analyzed included study quality, era, location (Europe vs non-Europe), and size; ALF etiology (acetaminophen-associated ALF [AALF] vs nonassociated [NAALF]); and whether or not the study included patients who underwent liver transplantation and if the study center was also a transplant center.

RESULTS

The DOR for the KCC was 5.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7-7.6; 57% heterogeneity) and the DOR for MELD score was 7.0 (95% CI, 5.1-9.7; 48% heterogeneity), so the MELD score and KCC are comparable in overall accuracy. The summary area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values was 0.76 for the KCC and 0.78 for MELD scores. The KCC identified patients with AALF who died with 58% sensitivity (95% CI, 51%-65%) and 89% specificity (95% CI, 85%-93%), whereas MELD scores identified patients with AALF who died with 80% sensitivity (95% CI, 74%-86%) and 53% specificity (95% CI, 47%-59%). The KCC predicted hospital mortality in patients with NAALF with 58% sensitivity (95% CI, 54%-63%) and 74% specificity (95% CI, 69%-78%), whereas MELD scores predicted hospital mortality in patients with NAALF with 76% sensitivity (95% CI, 72%-80%) and 73% specificity (95% CI, 69%-78%). In patients with AALF, the KCC's DOR was 10.4 (95% CI, 4.9-22.1) and the MELD score's DOR was 6.6 (95% CI, 2.1-20.2). In patients with NAALF, the KCC's DOR was 4.16 (95% CI, 2.34-7.40) and the MELD score's DOR was 8.42 (95% CI, 5.98-11.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a meta-analysis of studies, the KCC more accurately predicts hospital mortality among patients with AALF, whereas MELD scores more accurately predict mortality among patients with NAALF. However, there is significant heterogeneity among studies and neither system is optimal for all patients. Given the importance of specificity in decision making for listing for emergency liver transplantation, MELD scores should not replace the KCC in predicting hospital mortality of patients with AALF, but could have a role for NAALF.

Circulating Kidney Injury Molecule 1 Predicts Prognosis and Poor Outcome in Patients With Acetaminophen-Induced Liver Injury

Acute kidney injury in the context of acetaminophen (APAP; paracetamol)-induced liver injury is an important predictor of the requirement for urgent liver transplantation (LT) to avoid death. However, the prognostic biomarker used to report kidney dysfunction (serum creatinine concentration) has suboptimal sensitivity and specificity. Kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1) can be quantified in plasma as a sensitive and specific biomarker of kidney injury in both clinical and preclinical studies. Therefore, plasma KIM-1 has potential as a sensitive prognostic biomarker of patient outcome post-APAP overdose. In a cohort of APAP overdose patients (N = 74) with and without established liver injury, we quantified plasma KIM-1 by immunoassay on the first day of admission to a LT unit and assessed its diagnostic performance to predict outcome compared with serum creatinine concentration. Day 1 plasma KIM-1 was significantly elevated in patients that died or required LT, compared to spontaneous survivors (1,182 ± 251 vs. 214 ± 45 pg/mL; P < 0.005). Receiver operator characteristic analysis demonstrated the superiority of KIM-1 (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78-0.95; 0.56 sensitivity at 0.95 specificity), compared with serum creatinine (AUC, 0.76; 95% CI: 0.64-0.87; 0.08 sensitivity at 0.95 specificity) and other current prognostic indicators, when measured on the first day of enrollment into the study. Furthermore, KIM-1 was found to be a statistically significant independent predictor of outcome at the 5% level (P < 0.0386) in a multivariable logistic regression model that considered all measured factors (pseudo-R^2 = 0.895).

CONCLUSION

Early measurement of plasma KIM-1 represents a more sensitive predictor of patient outcome than serum creatinine concentration post-APAP overdose. With further development, plasma KIM-1 could significantly improve prognostic stratification.

Usefulness of B-mode and doppler sonography for the diagnosis of severe acute viral hepatitis A

BACKGROUND

To investigate B-mode and Doppler ultrasonography (US) features correlating with laboratory findings for the diagnosis of severe acute hepatitis (SAH) in patients with hepatitis A virus infection.

METHODS

Thirty-nine consecutive serologically proven patients were enrolled. Decreased parenchymal echotexture, periportal tracking, gallbladder wall change, and splenomegaly were assessed on B-mode images. Blood flow velocities were measured in the main portal (V(PORTAL)) and in the hepatic veins, and the hepatic venous pulsatility index was calculated. SAH was defined as high model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 15 with or without coagulopathy. The relationship between US features and laboratory findings was assessed, and SAH diagnosis was evaluated.

RESULTS

Serum alanine transaminase and prothrombin time were significantly different depending on the presence of gallbladder wall change and splenomegaly (p < 0.05). V(PORTAL) was inversely correlated with MELD score (r = -0.485) and several laboratory markers. The hepatic venous waveform and hepatic venous pulsatility index were significantly correlated with MELD score. For the diagnosis of SAH, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of V(PORTAL) was 0.798. It reached 0.869 in the patients with typical GB change.

CONCLUSIONS

Both B-mode and Doppler US correlated well with several laboratory variables and may be helpful to diagnose SAH in patients with hepatitis A virus infection.

Drug Induced Liver Injury: Review with a Focus on Genetic Factors, Tissue Diagnosis, and Treatment Options

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a rare but potentially life threatening adverse drug reaction. DILI may mimic any morphologic characteristic of acute or chronic liver disease, and the histopathologic features of DILI may be indistinguishable from those of other causes of liver injury, such as acute viral hepatitis. In this review article, we provide an update on causative agents, clinical features, pathogenesis, diagnosis modalities, and outcomes of DILI. In addition, we review results of recently reported genetic studies and updates on pharmacological and invasive treatments.

Predicting outcome on admission and post-admission for acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure using classification and regression tree models

Background/Aim

Assessing prognosis for acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) patients often presents significant challenges. King’s College (KCC) has been validated on hospital admission, but little has been published on later phases of illness. We aimed to improve determinations of prognosis both at the time of and following admission for APAP-ALF using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models.

Methods

CART models were applied to US ALFSG registry data to predict 21-day death or liver transplant early (on admission) and post-admission (days 3-7) for 803 APAP-ALF patients enrolled 01/1998–09/2013. Accuracy in prediction of outcome (AC), sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), and area under receiver-operating curve (AUROC) were compared between 3 models: KCC (INR, creatinine, coma grade, pH), CART analysis using only KCC variables (KCC-CART) and a CART model using new variables (NEW-CART).

Results

Traditional KCC yielded 69% AC, 90% SP, 27% SN, and 0.58 AUROC on admission, with similar performance post-admission. KCC-CART at admission offered predictive 66% AC, 65% SP, 67% SN, and 0.74 AUROC. Post-admission, KCC-CART had predictive 82% AC, 86% SP, 46% SN and 0.81 AUROC. NEW-CART models using MELD (Model for end stage liver disease), lactate and mechanical ventilation on admission yielded predictive 72% AC, 71% SP, 77% SN and AUROC 0.79. For later stages, NEW-CART (MELD, lactate, coma grade) offered predictive AC 86%, SP 91%, SN 46%, AUROC 0.73.

Conclusion

CARTs offer simple prognostic models for APAP-ALF patients, which have higher AUROC and SN than KCC, with similar AC and negligibly worse SP. Admission and post-admission predictions were developed.

Key Points

• Prognostication in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) is challenging beyond admission

• Little has been published regarding the use of King’s College Criteria (KCC) beyond admission and KCC has shown limited sensitivity in subsequent studies

• Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methodology allows the development of predictive models using binary splits and offers an intuitive method for predicting outcome, using processes familiar to clinicians

• Data from the ALFSG registry suggested that CART prognosis models for the APAP population offer improved sensitivity and model performance over traditional regression-based KCC, while maintaining similar accuracy and negligibly worse specificity

• KCC-CART models offered modest improvement over traditional KCC, with NEW-CART models performing better than KCC-CART particularly at late time points

Model for end-stage liver disease score as a predictor of short-term outcome in patients with drug-induced liver injury

OBJECTIVES

The purposes of this study were to investigate the clinical presentation, cause and outcome of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and to evaluate the predictive value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in DILI.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with DILI between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 in the Emergency Department at Asan Medical Center in Seoul, Korea were analyzed retrospectively. The primary end point was poor outcome, defined as liver transplantation or death within 30 days of the initial hospital visit.

RESULTS

Of 213 patients, 13.1% had a 30-day poor outcome. Folk remedies were the most common cause of DILI in 147 patients (69%). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that multiple drugs (odds ratio [OR] 2.30, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-5.15), concurrent alcohol consumption (OR 3.69, 95% CI: 1.03-13.18), white blood cell (WBC) count (OR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.28), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR 0.60, 95% CI: 0.49-0.74), platelet count (OR 0.993, 95% CI: 0.987-0.998), total bilirubin (OR 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06-1.13) and MELD (OR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.15-1.32) were significantly associated with 30-day poor outcomes. Multivariate analysis showed that the MELD (OR 1.21, 95% CI: 1.12-1.30) and Hb (OR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.98) were independent predictors of poor outcome. For 30-day mortality, the c-statistics for MELD alone and for combination of MELD and Hb were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89-0.97) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.97), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The outcome of patients with DILI was poor. MELD score and Hb were reliable predictors of short-term outcome in patients with DILI.

Serum mitochondrial biomarkers and damage-associated molecular patterns are higher in acetaminophen overdose patients with poor outcome

Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is a major cause of acute liver failure (ALF). Numerous studies have shown that APAP hepatotoxicity in mice involves mitochondrial dysfunction, and recent data suggest that this is also the case in humans. We have previously shown that glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH), mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and nuclear DNA (nDNA) fragments can be measured in circulation of overdose patients as mechanistic biomarkers of mitochondrial damage and damage-associated molecular patterns. In the present study, our aim was to determine whether these biomarkers are higher in serum from nonsurvivors of APAP-induced ALF (AALF), compared to survivors. GDH, mtDNA, and nDNA fragments were measured in serum from AALF patients who did (n = 34) or did not (n = 35) recover. Importantly, all three were significantly increased in patients who died, compared to those who survived (GDH: 450 ± 73 vs. 930 ± 145 U/L; mtDNA: 21 ± 6 vs. 48 ± 13 and 33 ± 10 vs. 43 ± 7 ng/mL for two different genes; nDNA fragments: 148 ± 13 vs. 210 ± 13% of control). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses revealed that nDNA fragments, GDH, and mtDNA were predictive of outcome (area under the curve [AUC], study admission: 0.73, 0.70, and 0.71 or 0.76, respectively, P < 0.05; AUC, time of peak ALT: 0.78, 0.71, and 0.71 or 0.76, respectively, P < 0.05), and the results were similar to those from the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD; AUC, peak MELD: 0.77; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that patients with more mitochondrial damage are less likely to survive, demonstrating that mitochondria are central in the mechanisms of APAP hepatotoxicity in humans. Clinically, serum nDNA fragments, GDH, and mtDNA could be useful as part of a panel of biomarkers to predict patient outcome. (Hepatology 2014;60:1336-1345).

Glycodeoxycholic acid levels as prognostic biomarker in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure patients

Acetaminophen (APAP)-induced acute liver failure (ALF) remains a major clinical problem. Although a majority of patients recovers after severe liver injury, a subpopulation of patients proceeds to ALF. Bile acids are generated in the liver and accumulate in blood during liver injury, and as such, have been proposed as biomarkers for liver injury and dysfunction. The goal of this study was to determine whether individual bile acid levels could determine outcome in patients with APAP-induced ALF (AALF). Serum bile acid levels were measured in AALF patients using mass spectrometry. Bile acid levels were elevated 5-80-fold above control values in injured patients on day 1 after the overdose and decreased over the course of hospital stay. Interestingly, glycodeoxycholic acid (GDCA) was significantly increased in non-surviving AALF patients compared with survivors. GDCA values obtained at peak alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and from day 1 of admission indicated GDCA could predict survival in these patients by receiver-operating characteristic analysis (AUC = 0.70 for day 1, AUC = 0.68 for peak ALT). Of note, AALF patients also had significantly higher levels of serum bile acids than patients with active cholestatic liver injury. These data suggest measurements of GDCA in this patient cohort modestly predicted outcome and may serve as a prognostic biomarker. Furthermore, accumulation of bile acids in serum or plasma may be a result of liver cell dysfunction and not cholestasis, suggesting elevation of circulating bile acid levels may be a consequence and not a cause of liver injury.

Management of hepatic encephalopathy

OPINION STATEMENT

Hepatic encephalopathy management varies depending on the acuity of liver failure. However, in patients with either acute or chronic liver failure five basic steps in management are critical: stabilization, addressing modifiable precipitating factors, lowering blood ammonia, managing elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) (if present), and managing complications of liver failure that can contribute to encephalopathy, particularly hyponatremia. Because liver failure patients are prone to a variety of other medical problems that can lead to encephalopathy (such as coagulopathy associated intracranial hemorrhage, electrolyte disarray, renal failure, hypotension, hypoglycemia, and infection), a thorough history, physical and neurologic examination is mandated in all encephalopathic liver failure patients. There should be a low threshold for brain imaging in patients with focal neurological deficits given the propensity for spontaneous intracranial hemorrhage. In patients with acute liver failure and high grade encephalopathy, identification of the etiology of acute liver failure is essential to guide treatment and antidote administration, particularly in the case of acetaminophen poisoning. Equally critical is management of elevated ICP in acute liver failure. Intracranial hypertension can be treated with hypertonic saline and/or adjustment of the dialysis bath. Placement of an intracranial monitor to guide ICP therapy is risky because of concomitant coagulopathy and remains controversial. Continuous renal replacement therapy may help lower serum ammonia, treat coexisting uremia, and improve symptoms. Liver transplantation is the definitive treatment for patients with acute liver failure and hepatic encephalopathy. In patients with chronic hepatic encephalopathy, lactulose and rifaxamin remain a mainstay of therapy. In these patients, it is essential to identify reversible causes of hepatic encephalopathy such as increased ammonia production and/or decreased clearance (eg, infection, GI bleed, constipation, hypokalemia, dehydration). Chronic hyponatremia should be managed by gradual sodium correction of no more than 8‒12 meq/L per day to avoid central myelinolysis syndrome. Free water restriction and increased dietary sodium are reasonable, cost effective treatment options. Many emerging therapies, both pharmacologic and interventional, are currently being studied to improve management of hepatic encephalopathy.

Liver transplantation for acute liver failure: are there thresholds not to be crossed?

Factors predicting survival after liver transplantation (LT) for irreversible acute liver failure (ALF) are rare. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic preoperative factors of patients with ALF that predict mortality after LT to avoid futile transplantation. From chart review, we identified 57 patients receiving transplants for ALF from 12/2000 to 09/2010. Recipient and donor data were analyzed and correlated with in-hospital mortality and patient survival by univariable/multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards. The survival rates at 30 days and 12 months were 77.2% and 64.9%, respectively. The in-hospital mortality rate was 29.8%. Follow-up of patients discharged from the hospital alive showed 30-day and 12-month survivals of 100% and 92.5%, respectively. Multivariable analysis of factors known preoperatively showed that the lowest pH of the recipient before LT (P = 0.03) was independently associated with in-hospital mortality, and the recipient's BMI (P = 0.03) and the lowest pH before LT (P = 0.03) were independently associated with patient survival. A pH of 7.26 was the calculated cutoff (ROC) for increased in-hospital mortality. Donor factors did not affect patient survival. Patients with ALF and a pH ≤ 7.26 have the worst outcome after liver transplantation. Therefore, emergency liver transplantation should be critically discussed for each individual.

Changing etiologies and outcomes of acute liver failure: perspectives from 6 transplant centers in Argentina

There is significant geographic variation in the etiologies and prognoses of acute liver failure (ALF). The aims of the present study were to determine the causes and short-term outcomes of ALF in Argentina, to evaluate the performance of prognostic criteria, and to identify clinical prognostic factors of death. We performed a retrospective analysis of 154 adult patients with ALF who were admitted to 6 liver transplantation (LT) programs between June 2005 and December 2011. The most frequent causes of ALF were viral hepatitis B (46 patients or 30%), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH; 40 patients or 26%), and indeterminate causes (40 patients or 26%). No acetaminophen (ACM) overdose was reported. One hundred and twenty one patients (78%) were included on the waiting list, and LT was performed for 83 patients (54%). Overall survival rate is now corected to 73%. Multivariate logistic regression identified 2 independent variables associated with adverse outcomes on admission: a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score ≥ 29 and an encephalopathy grade ≥ 3. In a direct comparison using a receiving operating characteristic curve analysis, the MELD score [C statistic = 0.830, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.73-0.93] had better prognostic accuracy for predicting outcomes than the Clichy criteria (C statistic = 0.719, 95% CI = 0.58-0.85) or the King's College criteria (C statistic = 0.631, 95% CI = 0.49-0.77). In conclusion, hepatitis B and AIH were the most frequent causes of fulminant hepatic failure in our series, and no cases of ACM overdosing were identified. A MELD score ≥ 29 and an encephalopathy grade ≥ 3 at admission were associated with death. The MELD score at admission showed the highest prognostic accuracy.