Accurate prediction of severe postoperative complications after pancreatic surgery: POSSUM vs E-PASS

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system for predicting complications following abdominal surgery: A meta-analysis spanning 2004 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.

AIM

To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system's efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery.

METHODS

A systematic search of published studies was conducted, yielding 17 studies with pertinent data. Parameters such as preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), comprehensive risk score (CRS), postoperative complications, postoperative mortality, and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis. Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables, with χ2 tests assessing heterogeneity (P value).

RESULTS

Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications [mean difference and 95% confidence interval (CI) of PRS: 0.10 (0.05-0.15); SSS: 0.04 (0.001-0.08); CRS: 0.19 (0.07-0.31)]. Following the exclusion of low-quality studies, results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to heterogeneity in CRS analysis. Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates [odds ratio (OR) (95%CI): 3.01 (1.83-4.95)], with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality [OR (95%CI): 15.49 (3.75-64.01)].

CONCLUSION

In summary, postoperative complications in abdominal surgery, as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system, are consistently linked to elevated PRS, SSS, and CRS scores. High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality. This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery, underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.

Network prediction of surgical complication clusters: a prospective multicenter cohort study

Complicated relationships exist in both occurrence and progression of surgical complications, which are difficult to account for using a separate quantitative method such as prediction or grading. Data of 51,030 surgical inpatients were collected from four academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in China. The relationship between preoperative factors, 22 common complications, and death was analyzed. With input from 54 senior clinicians and following a Bayesian network approach, a complication grading, cluster-visualization, and prediction (GCP) system was designed to model pathways between grades of complication and preoperative risk factor clusters. In the GCP system, there were 11 nodes representing six grades of complication and five preoperative risk factor clusters, and 32 arcs representing a direct association. Several critical targets were pinpointed on the pathway. Malnourished status was a fundamental cause widely associated (7/32 arcs) with other risk factor clusters and complications. American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ⩾3 was directly dependent on all other risk factor clusters and influenced all severe complications. Grade III complications (mainly pneumonia) were directly dependent on 4/5 risk factor clusters and affected all other grades of complication. Irrespective of grade, complication occurrence was more likely to increase the risk of other grades of complication than risk factor clusters.

Comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS as a prognostic indicator for patients after elective and emergency curative colorectal cancer surgery: A multicenter retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress for managing patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who underwent elective and emergency colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

CRS, which is calculated based on both clinical and surgical factors, is a good predictor of postoperative complications and mortality. However, the impact of CRS in CRC prognosis remains unclear.

METHODS

Patients with CRC who underwent curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The cohort was divided into the low and high CRS groups. The prognostic value of CRS was evaluated via Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The CRS cutoff value was obtained using the Youden index applied to OS curves and have not been validated by any validation cohorts.

RESULTS

In total, 2407 patients, including 1359 and 1048 patients with low and high CRS, respectively, were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analysis revealed that a CRS was an independent prognostic factor of overall and recurrence-free survival regardless of disease stage. Furthermore, adjuvant chemotherapy was beneficial for the survival of patients with stage III CRC in both high and low CRS groups; however, the survival benefit was limited in elderly high CRS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CRS was a strong prognostic factor for CRC regardless of disease stage and might be considered as a biomarker for selecting elderly patients who are eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy.