Characterization of potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis: A review

The aquaculture disease network model (AquaNet-Mod): A simulation model to evaluate disease spread and controls for the salmonid industry in England and Wales

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed.

Selective breeding can contribute to bovine tuberculosis control and eradication

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) persists in many countries having a significant impact on public health and livestock industry finances. The incidence and prevalence of new cases in parts of the UK and elsewhere over the past decades warrant intensified efforts towards achieving Officially Tuberculosis Free (OTF) status in the respective regions. Genetic selection aiming to identify and remove inherently susceptible animals from breeding has been proposed as an additional measure in ongoing programmes towards controlling the disease. The presence of genetic variation among individual animals in their capacity to respond to Mycobacterium bovis exposure has been documented and heritability estimates of 0.06-0.18 have been reported. Despite their moderate magnitude, these estimates suggest that host resistance to bTB is amenable to improvement with selective breeding. Although relatively slow, genetic progress can be constant, cumulative and permanent, thereby complementing ongoing disease control measures. Importantly, mostly no antagonistic genetic correlations have been found between bTB resistance and other animal traits suggesting that carefully incorporating the former in breeding decisions should not adversely affect bovine productivity. Simulation studies have demonstrated the potential impact of genetic selection on reducing the probability of a breakdown to occur or the duration and severity of a breakdown that has already been declared. Furthermore, research on the bovine genome has identified multiple genomic markers and genes associated with bTB resistance. Nevertheless, the combined outcomes of these studies suggest that host resistance to bTB is a complex, polygenic trait, with no single gene alone explaining the inherent differences between resistant and susceptible animals. Such results support the development of accurate genomic breeding values that duly capture the collective effect of multiple genes to underpin selective breeding programmes. In addition to improving host resistance to bTB, scientists and practitioners have considered the possibility of reducing host infectivity. Ongoing studies have suggested the presence of genetic variation for infectivity and confirmed that bTB eradication would be accelerated if selective breeding considered both host resistance and infectivity traits. In conclusion, research activity on bTB genetics has generated knowledge and insights to support selective breeding as an additional measure towards controlling and eradicating the disease.

Review on Bovine Tuberculosis: An Emerging Disease Associated with Multidrug-Resistant Mycobacterium Species

Bovine tuberculosis is a serious infectious disease affecting a wide range of domesticated and wild animals, representing a worldwide economic and public health burden. The disease is caused by Mycobacteriumbovis and infrequently by other pathogenic mycobacteria. The problem of bovine tuberculosis is complicated when the infection is associated with multidrug and extensively drug resistant M. bovis. Many techniques are used for early diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis, either being antemortem or postmortem, each with its diagnostic merits as well as limitations. Antemortem techniques depend either on cellular or on humoral immune responses, while postmortem diagnosis depends on adequate visual inspection, palpation, and subsequent diagnostic procedures such as bacterial isolation, characteristic histopathology, and PCR to reach the final diagnosis. Recently, sequencing and bioinformatics tools have gained increasing importance for the diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis, including, but not limited to typing, detection of mutations, phylogenetic analysis, molecular epidemiology, and interactions occurring within the causative mycobacteria. Consequently, the current review includes consideration of bovine tuberculosis as a disease, conventional and recent diagnostic methods, and the emergence of MDR-Mycobacterium species.

The role of social structure and dynamics in the maintenance of endemic disease

Social interactions are required for the direct transmission of infectious diseases. Consequently, the social network structure of populations plays a key role in shaping infectious disease dynamics. A huge research effort has examined how specific social network structures make populations more (or less) vulnerable to damaging epidemics. However, it can be just as important to understand how social networks can contribute to endemic disease dynamics, in which pathogens are maintained at stable levels for prolonged periods of time. Hosts that can maintain endemic disease may serve as keystone hosts for multi-host pathogens within an ecological community, and also have greater potential to act as key wildlife reservoirs of agricultural and zoonotic diseases. Here, we examine combinations of social and demographic processes that can foster endemic disease in hosts. We synthesise theoretical and empirical work to demonstrate the importance of both social structure and social dynamics in maintaining endemic disease. We also highlight the importance of distinguishing between the local and global persistence of infection and reveal how different social processes drive variation in the scale at which infectious diseases appear endemic. Our synthesis provides a framework by which to understand how sociality contributes to the long-term maintenance of infectious disease in wildlife hosts and provides a set of tools to unpick the social and demographic mechanisms involved in any given host-pathogen system.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00265-021-03055-8.

Characterization of potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis: A review

Background

Variation in host attributes that influence their contact rates and infectiousness can lead some individuals to make disproportionate contributions to the spread of infections. Understanding the roles of such ‘superspreaders’ can be crucial in deciding where to direct disease surveillance and controls to greatest effect. In the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain, it has been suggested that a minority of cattle farms or herds might make disproportionate contributions to the spread of Mycobacterium bovis, and hence might be considered ‘superspreader farms’.

Objectives and Methods

We review the literature to identify the characteristics of farms that have the potential to contribute to exceptional values in the three main components of the farm reproductive number ‐ R_f: contact rate, infectiousness and duration of infectiousness, and therefore might characterize potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

Results

Farms exhibit marked heterogeneity in contact rates arising from between‐farm trading of cattle. A minority of farms act as trading hubs that greatly augment connections within cattle trading networks. Herd infectiousness might be increased by high within‐herd transmission or the presence of supershedding individuals, or infectiousness might be prolonged due to undetected infections or by repeated local transmission, via wildlife or fomites.

Conclusions

Targeting control methods on putative superspreader farms might yield disproportionate benefits in controlling endemic bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. However, real‐time identification of any such farms, and integration of controls with industry practices, present analytical, operational and policy challenges.