Predictive modelling of eutrophication in the Pozón de la Dolores lake (Northern Spain) by using an evolutionary support vector machines approach

Chlorophyll soft-sensor based on machine learning models for algal bloom predictions

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a growing concern to public health and aquatic ecosystems. Long-term water monitoring conducted by hand poses several limitations to the proper implementation of water safety plans. This work combines automatic high-frequency monitoring (AFHM) systems with machine learning (ML) techniques to build a data-driven chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) soft-sensor. Massive data for water temperature, pH, electrical conductivity (EC) and system battery were taken for three years at intervals of 15 min from two different areas of As Conchas freshwater reservoir (NW Spain). We designed a set of soft-sensors based on compact and energy efficient ML algorithms to infer Chl-a fluorescence by using low-cost input variables and to be deployed on buoys with limited battery and hardware resources. Input and output aggregations were applied in ML models to increase their inference performance. A component capable of triggering a 10 [Formula: see text]g/L Chl-a alert was also developed. The results showed that Chl-a soft-sensors could be a rapid and inexpensive tool to support manual sampling in water bodies at risk.

Stochastic modeling of chlorophyll-a for probabilistic assessment and monitoring of algae blooms in the Lower Nakdong River, South Korea

Eutrophication is one of the critical water quality issues in the world nowadays. Various studies have been conducted to explore the contributing factors related to eutrophication symptoms. However, in the field of eutrophication modeling, the stochastic nature associated with the eutrophication process has not been sufficiently explored, especially in a multivariate stochastic modeling framework. In this study, a multivariate hidden Markov model (MHMM) that can consider the spatio-temporal dependence in chlorophyll-a concentration over the Nakdong River of South Korea was proposed. The MHMM can effectively cluster the intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of chlorophyll-a, thereby enabling us to understand the spatio-temporal evolutions of algal blooms. The relationships between hydro-climatic conditions (e.g., temperature and river flow) and chlorophyll-a concentrations were evident, whereas a relatively weak relationship with water quality parameters was observed. The MHMM enables us to effectively infer the conditional probability of the eutrophication state for the following month. The self-transition likelihood of staying in the current state is substantially higher than the likelihood of moving to other states. Moreover, the proposed modeling approach can effectively offer a probabilistic decision-support framework for constructing an alert classification of the eutrophication. The potential use of the proposed modeling framework was also provided.

Eutrophication Assessment Based on the Cloud Matter Element Model

Eutrophication has become one of the most serious problems threatening the lakes/reservoirs in China over 50 years. Evaluation of eutrophication is a multi-criteria decision-making process with uncertainties. In this study, a cloud matter element (CME) model was developed in order to evaluate eutrophication level objectively and scientifically, which incorporated the randomness and fuzziness of eutrophication evaluation process. The elements belonging to each eutrophication level in the CME model were determined by means of certainty degrees through repeated simulations of cloud model with reasonable parameters of expectation E_x, entropy E_n, and hyper-entropy H_e. The weights of evaluation indicators were decided by a combination of entropy technology and analytic hierarchy process method. The neartudes of water samples to each eutrophication level of lakes/reservoirs in the CME model were generated and the eutrophication levels were determined by maximum neartude principal. The proposed CME model was applied to evaluate eutrophication levels of 24 typical lakes/reservoirs in China. The results of the CME model were compared with those of comprehensive index method, matter element model, fuzzy matter element model, and cloud model. Most of the results obtained by the CME model were consistent with the results obtained by other methods, which proved the CME model is an effective tool to evaluate eutrophication.

Modelling eutrophication in lake ecosystems: A review

Eutrophication is one of the main causes of the degradation of lake ecosystems. Its intensification during the last decades has led the stakeholders to seek for water management and restoration solutions, including those based on modelling approaches. This paper presents a review of lake eutrophication modelling, on the basis of a scientific appraisal performed by researchers for the French ministries of Environment and Agriculture. After a brief introduction presenting the scientific context, a bibliography analysis is presented. Then the main results obtained with process-based models are summarized. A synthesis of the scientist recommendations in order to improve the lake eutrophication modelling is finally given before the conclusion.