Nomogram for individualised prediction of liver failure risk after hepatectomy in patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma: the evidence from ultrasound data

Preoperative Ultrasound Radomics to Predict Posthepatectomy Liver Failure in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a major cause of postoperative mortality in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The study aimed to develop a method based on the two-dimensional shear wave elastography and clinical data to evaluate the risk of PHLF in HCC patients with chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

This multicenter study proposed a deep learning model (PHLF-Net) incorporating dual-modal ultrasound features and clinical indicators to predict the PHLF risk. The datasets were divided into a training cohort, an internal validation cohort, an internal independent testing cohort, and three external independent testing cohorts. Based on ResNet50 pretrained on ImageNet, PHLF-Net used a progressive training strategy with images of varying granularity and incorporated conventional B-mode and elastography images and clinical indicators related to liver reserve function.

RESULTS

In total, 532 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy at five hospitals were enrolled. PHLF occurred in 147 patients (27.6%, 147/532). The PHLF-Net combining dual-modal ultrasound and clinical indicators demonstrated high effectiveness for predicting PHLF, with AUCs of 0.957 and 0.923 in the internal validation and testing sets, and AUCs of 0.950, 0.860, and 1.000 in the other three independent external testing sets. The performance of PHLF-Net outperformed models of single- and dual-modal US.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative ultrasound imaging combining clinical indicators can effectively predict the PHLF probability in patients with HCC. In the internal and external validation sets, PHLF-Net demonstrated its usefulness in predicting PHLF.

Liver stiffness in hepatocellular carcinoma and chronic hepatitis patients: Hepatitis B virus infection and transaminases should be considered

BACKGROUND

Liver condition is a crucial prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but a convenient and comprehensive method to assess liver condition is lacking. Liver stiffness (LS) measured by two-dimensional shear wave elastography may help in assessing liver fibrosis and liver condition. Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is an important risk factor for HCC progression, but LS was found to be less reliable in assessing liver fibrosis following hepatitis viral eradication. We hypothesize that the status of hepatitis virus infection would affect the accuracy of LS in assessing the liver condition.

AIM

To test the feasibility and impact factors of using LS to assess liver condition in patients with HCC and CHB.

METHODS

A total of 284 patients were retrospectively recruited and classified into two groups on the basis of serum CHB virus hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA levels [HBV-DNA ≥ 100.00 IU/mL as Pos group (n = 200) and < 100.00 IU/mL as Neg group (n = 84)]. Correlation analyses and receiver operating characteristic analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between LS and liver condition.

RESULTS

A significant correlation was found between LS and most of the parameters considered to have the ability to evaluate liver condition (P < 0.05). When alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentrations were normal (≤ 40 U/L), LS was correlated with liver condition indices (P < 0.05), but the optimal cutoff of LS to identify a Child-Pugh score of 5 was higher in the Neg group (9.30 kPa) than the Pos group (7.40 kPa). When ALT levels were elevated (> 40 U/L), the correlations between LS and liver condition indices were not significant (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

LS was significantly correlated with most liver condition indices in patients with CHB and HCC. However, these correlations varied according to differences in HBV-DNA and transaminase concentrations.

Nomogram based on liver stiffness and spleen area with ultrasound for posthepatectomy liver failure: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Liver stiffness (LS) measurement with two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) correlates with the degree of liver fibrosis and thus indirectly reflects liver function reserve. The size of the spleen increases due to tissue proliferation, fibrosis, and portal vein congestion, which can indirectly reflect the situation of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. It was reported that the size of the spleen was related to posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). So far, there has been no study combining 2D-SWE measurements of LS with spleen size to predict PHLF. This prospective study aimed to investigate the utility of 2D-SWE assessing LS and spleen area (SPA) for the prediction of PHLF in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and to develop a risk prediction model.

AIM

To investigate the utility of 2D-SWE assessing LS and SPA for the prediction of PHLF in HCC patients and to develop a risk prediction model.

METHODS

This was a multicenter observational study prospectively analyzing patients who underwent hepatectomy from October 2020 to March 2022. Within 1 wk before partial hepatectomy, ultrasound examination was performed to measure LS and SPA, and blood was drawn to evaluate the patient's liver function and other conditions. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to identify independent predictors of PHLF and develop a nomogram. Nomogram performance was validated further. The diagnostic performance of the nomogram was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curve compared with the conventional models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score.

RESULTS

A total of 562 HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy (500 in the training cohort and 62 in the validation cohort) were enrolled in this study. The independent predictors of PHLF were LS, SPA, range of resection, blood loss, international normalized ratio, and total bilirubin. Better diagnostic performance of the nomogram was obtained in the training [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 0.833; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.792-0.873; sensitivity: 83.1%; specificity: 73.5%] and validation (AUC: 0.802; 95%CI: 0.684-0.920; sensitivity: 95.5%; specificity: 52.5%) cohorts compared with the MELD score and the ALBI score.

CONCLUSION

This PHLF nomogram, mainly based on LS by 2D-SWE and SPA, was useful in predicting PHLF in HCC patients and presented better than MELD score and ALBI score.

Significance of Prediction Models for Post-Hepatectomy Liver Failure Based on Type IV Collagen 7s Domain in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: Previous studies have attempted to establish predictive models for post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing liver resection. However, a versatile and useful predictive model for PHLF remains to be developed. Therefore, we aimed to develop predictive models for PHLF based on type IV collagen 7s domain (7s collagen) in patients with HCC. Methods: We retrospectively collected data from 972 patients with HCC who had undergone initial curative liver resection between February 2000 and December 2020 at our hospital. Multivariate logistic regression analysis using a restricted cubic spline was performed to evaluate the effect of 7s collagen on the incidence of PHLF. A nomogram was developed based on 7s collagen. Results: PHLF grades B or C were identified in 104 patients (11%): 98 (10%) and 6 (1%) PHLF grades B and C, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the preoperative serum level of 7s collagen was significantly associated with a proportional increase in the risk of PHLF, which was confirmed in both laparoscopic and open liver resections. A nomogram was developed based on 7s collagen, with a concordance index of 0.768. The inclusion of 7s collagen values in the predictive model increased the predictive accuracy. Conclusion: The findings highlight the efficacy of the serum level of 7s collagen as a predictive factor for PHLF. Our novel nomogram using 7s collagen may be useful for predicting the risk of PHLF.

An Interpretable Radiomics Model Based on Two-Dimensional Shear Wave Elastography for Predicting Symptomatic Post-Hepatectomy Liver Failure in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate an interpretable radiomics model based on two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) for symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) prediction in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A total of 345 consecutive patients were enrolled. A five-fold cross-validation was performed during training, and the models were evaluated in the independent test cohort. A multi-patch radiomics model was established based on the 2D-SWE images for predicting symptomatic PHLF. Clinical features were incorporated into the models to train the clinical-radiomics model. The radiomics model and the clinical-radiomics model were compared with the clinical model comprising clinical variables and other clinical predictive indices, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used for post hoc interpretability of the radiomics model.

RESULTS

The clinical-radiomics model achieved an AUC of 0.867 (95% CI 0.787-0.947) in the five-fold cross-validation, and this score was higher than that of the clinical model (AUC: 0.809; 95% CI: 0.715-0.902) and the radiomics model (AUC: 0.746; 95% CI: 0.681-0.811). The clinical-radiomics model showed an AUC of 0.822 in the test cohort, higher than that of the clinical model (AUC: 0.684, p = 0.007), radiomics model (AUC: 0.784, p = 0.415), MELD score (AUC: 0.529, p < 0.001), and ALBI score (AUC: 0.644, p = 0.016). The SHAP analysis showed that the first-order radiomics features, including first-order maximum 64 × 64, first-order 90th percentile 64 × 64, and first-order 10th percentile 32 × 32, were the most important features for PHLF prediction.

CONCLUSION

An interpretable clinical-radiomics model based on 2D-SWE and clinical variables can help in predicting symptomatic PHLF in HCC.

Predicting symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: development and validation of a preoperative nomogram

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram based on liver stiffness (LS) for predicting symptomatic post-hepatectomy (PHLF) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A total of 266 patients with HCC were enrolled prospectively from three tertiary referral hospitals from August 2018 to April 2021. All patients underwent preoperative laboratory examination to obtain parameters of liver function. Two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) was performed to measure LS. Three-dimensional virtual resection obtained the different volumes including future liver remnant (FLR). A nomogram was developed by using logistic regression and determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve analysis, which was validated internally and externally.

RESULTS

A nomogram was constructed with the following variables: FLR ratio (FLR of total liver volume), LS greater than 9.5 kPa, Child-Pugh grade, and the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). This nomogram enabled differentiation of symptomatic PHLF in the derivation cohort (area under curve [AUC], 0.915), internal fivefold cross-validation (mean AUC, 0.918), internal validation cohort (AUC, 0.876) and external validation cohort (AUC, 0.845). The nomogram also showed good calibration in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, p = 0.641, p = 0.06, and p = 0.127, respectively). Accordingly, the safe limit of the FLR ratio was stratified using the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

An elevated level of LS was associated with the occurrence of symptomatic PHLF in HCC. A preoperative nomogram integrating LS, clinical and volumetric features was useful in predicting postoperative outcomes in patients with HCC, which might help surgeons in the management of HCC resection.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

A serial of the safe limit of the future liver remnant was proposed by a preoperative nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma, which might help surgeons in 'how much remnant is enough in liver resection'.

KEY POINTS

• An elevated liver stiffness with the best cutoff value of 9.5 kPa was associated with the occurrence of symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure in hepatocellular carcinoma. • A nomogram based on both quality (Child-Pugh grade, liver stiffness, and portal hypertension) and quantity of future liver remnant was developed to predict symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure for HCC, which enabled good discrimination and calibration in both derivation and validation cohorts. • The safe limit of future liver remnant volume was stratified using the proposed nomogram, which might help surgeons in the management of HCC resection.

Current status of preoperative risk assessment for posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver resection is an effective therapeutic option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains a major cause of hepatectomy-related mortality, and the accurate prediction of PHLF based on preoperative assessment of liver functional reserve is a critical issue. The definition of PHLF proposed by the International Study Group for Liver Surgery has gained acceptance as a standard grading criterion. Liver function can be estimated using a variety of parameters, including routine blood biochemical examinations, clinical scoring systems, dynamic liver function tests, liver stiffness and fibrosis markers, and imaging studies. The Child-Pugh score and model for end-stage liver disease scores are conventionally used for estimating liver decompensation, although the alternatively developed albumin-bilirubin score shows superior performance for predicting hepatic dysfunction. Indocyanine green clearance, a dynamic liver function test mostly used in Japan and other Asian countries, serves as a quantitative estimation of liver function reserve and helps determine indications for surgical procedures according to the estimated risk of PHLF. In an attempt to improve predictive accuracy, specific evaluation of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension has gained popularity, including liver stiffness measurements using ultrasonography or magnetic resonance elastography, as well as noninvasive fibrosis markers. Imaging modalities, including Tc-99m-labeled galactosyl serum albumin scintigraphy and gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, are used for preoperative evaluation in combination with liver volume. This review aims to provide an overview of the usefulness of current options for the preoperative assessment of liver function in predicting PHLF.

Predictive nomograms for postoperative 90-day morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing liver resection for various hepatobiliary diseases

BACKGROUND

Postoperative complications affect the long-term survival and quality of life in patients undergoing liver resection. No model has yet been validated to predict 90-day severe morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

The prospective recruitment of patients undergoing liver resection for various indications was performed. Preoperative clinical and laboratory data, including liver stiffness, indocyanine green retention, and intraoperative parameters, were analyzed to develop predictive nomograms for postoperative severe morbidity and mortality. Calibration plots were used to perform external validation.

RESULTS

The most common indications in 418 liver resections performed were colorectal metastases (N = 149 [35.6%]), hepatocellular carcinoma (N = 106 [25.4%]), and benign liver tumors (N = 60 [14.3%]). Major liver resections were performed in 164 (39.2%) patients. Severe morbidity and mortality were observed in 87 (20.8%) and 9 (2.2%) of patients, respectively, during the 90-day postoperative period. Post-hepatectomy liver failure was observed in 19 (4.5%) patients, resulting in the death of 4. The independent predictors of 90-day severe morbidity were age (odds ratio:1.02, P = .06), liver stiffness (odds ratio: 1.23, P = .04], number of resected segments (odds ratio: 1.28, P = .004), and operative time (odds ratio: 1.01, P = .01). Independent predictors of 90-day mortality were diabetes mellitus (odds ratio: 6.6, P = .04), tumor size >50 mm (odds ratio:4.8, P = .08), liver stiffness ≥22 kPa (odds ratio:7.0, P = .04), and operative time ≥6 hours (odds ratio: 6.1, P = .05). Nomograms were developed using these independent predictors and validated by testing the Goodness of fit in calibration plots (P = .64 for severe morbidity; P = .8 for mortality).

CONCLUSION

Proposed nomograms would enable a personalized approach to identifying patients at risk of complications and adapting surgical treatment according to their clinical profile and the center's expertise.

2022 KLCA-NCC Korea practice guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cancer among men in South Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle and old age. The current practice guidelines will provide useful and sensible advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 49 experts in the fields of hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology from the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2018 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions. These guidelines provide useful information and direction for all clinicians, trainees, and researchers in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

2022 KLCA-NCC Korea Practice Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cancer among men in South Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle and old age. The current practice guidelines will provide useful and sensible advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 49 experts in the fields of hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology from the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2018 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions. These guidelines provide useful information and direction for all clinicians, trainees, and researchers in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

2022 KLCA-NCC Korea practice guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cancer among men in South Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle and old age. The current practice guidelines will provide useful and sensible advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 49 experts in the fields of hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology from the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2018 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions. These guidelines provide useful information and direction for all clinicians, trainees, and researchers in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

Nomogram based on CT-derived extracellular volume for the prediction of post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on extracellular volume (ECV) derived from computed tomography (CT) for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A total of 202 patients with resectable HCC from two hospitals were enrolled and underwent multiphasic contrast-enhanced CT before surgery. One hundred twenty-one patients from our hospital and 81 patients from another hospital were assigned to the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. CT-derived ECV was measured using nonenhanced and equilibrium-phase-enhanced CT images. The nomogram was developed with independent predictors of PHLF. Predictive performance and calibration were assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. The Delong test was used to compare the areas under the curve (AUCs).

RESULTS

CT-derived ECV had a strong correlation with the postoperative pathological fibrosis stage of the background liver (p < 0.001, r = 0.591). The nomogram combining CT-derived ECV, serum albumin (Alb), and serum total bilirubin (Tbil) obtained higher AUCs than the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score for predicting PHLF in both the training cohort (0.828 vs. 0.708; p = 0.004) and the validation cohort (0.821 vs. 0.630; p < 0.001). The nomogram showed satisfactory goodness of fit for PHLF prediction in the training and validation cohorts (p = 0.621 and 0.697, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram contributes to the preoperative prediction of PHLF in patients with resectable HCC.

KEY POINTS

• CT-derived ECV had a strong correlation with the postoperative pathological fibrosis stage of the background liver. • CT-derived ECV was an independent predictor of PHLF in patients with resectable HCC. • The nomogram based on CT-derived ECV showed a superior prediction efficacy than that of clinical models (including Child-Pugh stage, MELD score, and ALBI score).

Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Prognostic Factors of Primary Malignant Bone Neoplasms with Bone Metastasis at Initial Diagnosis: A Population-Based Study

Background. Bone metastasis (BM) has been proven to be responsible for the poor prognosis of primary malignant bone neoplasms (PMBNs). We aimed to identify the prevalence, risk factors, and prognostic factors for PMBNs patients with BM based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods. 4,758 patients diagnosed with PMBNs from 2010 to 2018 were selected from the SEER database. All patients were divided into two groups: the BM group or the non-BM group. Pearson’s chi-square test and Fisher’s exact method were used to assess baseline characteristics, and logistic regression analysis was applied to assess risk factors. In addition, a nomogram was constructed based on the results of Cox regression analysis among 227 patients with BM. The good performance and clinical applicability of the nomogram were tested by the concordance index, operating characteristic curve, area under the curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Results. 227 (4.8%) patients had metastasis to bone at diagnosis. Primary site outside the extremities (axial: odds ratio, $\text{OR}=1.770$ ; others: $\text{OR}=1.951$ ), Ewing sarcoma ( $\text{OR}=2.845$ ), larger tumor size (5–8 cm: $\text{OR}=3.403$ ; >8 cm: $\text{OR}=5.562$ ), tumor extension beyond the periosteum ( $\text{OR}=2.477$ ), and regional lymph node metastasis ( $\text{OR}=2.900$ ) were associated with a higher risk of BM at the initial diagnosis of PMBNs. Five independent prognostic factors were found in the survival analysis: pathological type (chondrosarcoma vs. osteosarcoma: hazard ratio, $\text{HR}=0.342$ ; Ewing sarcoma vs. osteosarcoma: $\text{HR}=0.592$ ; and chordoma vs. osteosarcoma: $\text{HR}=0.015$ ), marital status ( $\text{HR}=2.457$ ), pulmonary metastasis ( $\text{HR}=1.934$ ), surgery at the primary site ( $\text{HR}=0.164$ ), and chemotherapy ( $\text{HR}=0.084$ ). A nomogram based on these prognostic factors could be a good predictor of cancer-specific survival. Conclusions. We identified the prevalence, risk factors, and prognostic factors correlated with BM in PMBNs patients. The related nomogram could be a practical tool for therapeutic decision-making and individual counseling.

Appraisal of multivariable prognostic models for post-operative liver decompensation following partial hepatectomy: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Few reports have evaluated prognostic modelling studies of tools used for surgical decision-making. This systematic review aimed to describe and critically appraise studies that have developed or validated multivariable prognostic models for post-operative liver decompensation following partial hepatectomy.

METHODS

This study was designed using the CHARMS checklist. Following a comprehensive literature search, two reviewers independently screened candidate references for inclusion and abstracted relevant study details. Qualitative assessment was performed using the PROBAST tool.

RESULTS

We identified 36 prognostic modelling studies; 25 focused on development only, 3 developed and validated models, and 8 validated pre-existing models. None compared routine use of a prognostic model against standard clinical practice. Most studies used single-institution, retrospective cohort designs, conducted in Eastern populations. In total, 15 different outcome definitions for post-operative liver decompensation events were used. Statistical concerns surrounding model overfitting, performance assessment, and internal validation led to high risk of bias for all studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Current prognostic models for post-operative liver decompensation following partial hepatectomy may not be valid for routine clinical use due to design and methodologic concerns. Landmark resources and reporting guidelines such as the TRIPOD statement may assist researchers, and additionally, model impact assessment studies represent opportunities for future research.

Impact of portal hypertension on short- and long-term outcomes after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A propensity score matching analysis

Objective

We explored the impact of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) on short‐ and long‐term outcomes of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after liver resection (LR).

Methods

Data of 352 ICC patients with cirrhosis who underwent LR were extracted from the Primary Liver Cancer Big Data (PLCBD) between 2005 and 2015 and reviewed. A nomogram based on logistic analyses was developed to illustrate the influencing factors of post‐hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). The impact of CSPH on long‐term survival was explored through propensity score matching (PSM) analysis, log‐rank test, Cox proportional hazards model, and Kaplan–Meier curves.

Results

A total of 106 patients had CSPH, and 246 patients did not. A nomogram established based on GGT level, CSPH, intraoperative blood loss, and multiple tumors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.721 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.630–0.812), which displayed a better PHLF predictive value than the MELD score (0.639, 95% CI = 0.532–0.747) and Child–Pugh score (0.612, 95% CI = 0.506–0.719). Moreover, the patients with CSPH had worse overall survival (OS) rates than the patients without CSPH in the whole cohort (p = 0.011) and PSM cohort (p = 0.017). After PSM, multivariable Cox analyses identified that CSPH was an independent risk factor for OS (hazard ratio = 1.585, 95% CI = 1.107–2.269; p = 0.012).

Conclusion

CSPH is a significant risk factor for PHLF and OS in ICC patients with cirrhosis after surgery. Selecting the proper patients before operation can effectively avoid PHLF and improve the prognosis of ICC.

A novel online calculator based on noninvasive markers (ALBI and APRI) for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains the primary cause of in-hospital mortality after hepatectomy. Identifying predictors of PHLF is important to improve surgical safety. We sought to identify the predictive accuracy of two noninvasive markers, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet count ratio index (APRI), to predict PHLF among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and to build up an online prediction calculator.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC between 2013 and 2016 at 6 Chinese hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. The independent predictors of PHLF were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses; derivative data were used to construct preoperative and postoperative nomogram models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the two predictive models, and ALBI, APRI, Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were compared relative to predictive accuracy for PHLF.

RESULTS

Among the 767 patients in the analytic cohort, 102 (13.3%) experienced PHLF. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified high ALBI grade (>-2.6) and high APRI grade (>1.5) as independent risk factors associated with PHLF in both the preoperative and postoperative models. Two nomogram predictive models and corresponding web-based calculators were subsequently constructed. The areas under the ROC curves for the postoperative and preoperative models, APRI, ALBI, MELD and Child-Pugh scores in predicting PHLF were 0.844, 0.789, 0.626, 0.609, 0.569, and 0.560, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ALBI and APRI demonstrated more accurate ability to predict PHLF than Child-Pugh and MELD. Two online calculators that combined ALBI and APRI were proposed as useful preoperative and postoperative tools for individually predicting the occurrence of PHLF among patients with HCC.

Approaches to the Diagnosis of Portal Hypertension: Non-Invasive or Invasive Tests?

Portal hypertension is the main driver of complications in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) and is defined by values of hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement (HVPG) >5 mmHg. Values of HVPG ≥10 mmHg determine the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), the main predictor of the risk of variceal bleeding, hepatic decompensation, and mortality. However, its measurement is invasive and requires high expertise, so its routine use outside third level centers or clinical trials is limited. In the last decades, several non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed and validated for the diagnosis of portal hypertension. Among these, liver (LSM) and spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) are the most promising tools available, as they have been proven accurate to predict CSPH, high-risk esophageal varices, decompensation, and mortality in patients with ACLD. In the last Baveno VI Consensus proceedings, LSM evaluation was recommended for the first time for diagnosis of CSPH (LSM >20-25 kPa) and the screening of patients with a low probability of having high-risk varices (LSM <20 kPa and platelet count >150.000/mm³). In this review, we aimed to summarize the growing evidence supporting the use of non-invasive tests for the evaluation of portal hypertension in patients with chronic liver disease.

Feasibility of T2WI-MRI-based radiomics nomogram for predicting normal-sized pelvic lymph node metastasis in cervical cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the feasibility of T₂WI-based radiomics nomogram analysis to non-invasively predict normal-sized pelvic lymph node (LN) metastasis (LNM) in cervical cancer patients.

METHODS

Preoperative images of 219 normal-sized pathologically confirmed LNs from 132 cervical cancer patients admitted to our hospital between January 2013 and March 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Regions of interests (ROIs) were separately delineated on whole LNs and tumors. The maximum-relevance and minimum-redundancy (mRMR) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods were used for the construction of radiomics signature. Logistic regression modeling was employed to build models based on clinical features on LN T₂WI (model 1), model 1 combined with LN radiomics features (model 2), and model 2 combined with tumor score (model 3). Diagnostic performance was assessed and compared.

RESULTS

Both model 2 and model 3 showed higher diagnostic accuracy (training: model 2 0.75, model 3 0.78, model 1 0.72; validation: model 2 0.77, model 3 0.69, model 1 0.66) and AUC (training: model 2 0.77, model 3 0.82, model 1 0.74; validation: model 2 0.75, model 3 0.74, model 1 0.70) than clinical model 1. Diagnostic performance of model 3 was improved compared with model 2 in primary cohort, but reduced in validation cohort. However, the differences did not show obvious statistical difference (p = 0.05 and p = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

T₂WI-based radiomics nomogram incorporating the LN radiomics signature with the clinical morphological LN features is promising for predicting the normal-sized pelvic LNM in cervical cancer patients. The original tumor radiomics analysis did not significantly improve the differential diagnosis of LNM.

KEY POINTS

• The combination of LN radiomics signature with LN clinical morphological features on T₂WI could discriminate LNM relatively well. • The tumor radiomics analysis did not significantly improve the differential diagnosis of LNM.

A Nomogram to Predict Regrowth After Ultrasound-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation for Benign Thyroid Nodules

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram to predict regrowth for patients with benign thyroid nodules undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

A total of 200 patients with 220 benign thyroid nodules who underwent RFA were included in this respective study. After RFA, patients were followed up at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months, and every 12 months thereafter. Regrowth was defined as an increase in nodule volume 50% over the previously recorded smallest volume. A nomogram was developed based on the variables identified by multivariate logistic regression and the model performance was evaluated by discrimination(concordance index) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

The incidence of regrowth was 13.64% (30/220) after a mean follow-up period of 27.43 ± 17.99 months. Multivariate logistic regression revealed initial volume (OR = 1.047, 95%CI 1.020-1.075), vascularity (OR = 2.037, 95%CI 1.218-3.404), and location close to critical structure (OR = 4.713, 95%CI 1.817-12.223) were independent factors associated with regrowth. The prognostic nomogram incorporating these three factors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.779 (95%CI 0.686-0.872).

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic nomogram was successfully developed to predict nodule regrowth after RFA, which might guide physician in stratifying patients and provide precise guidance for individualized treatment protocols.

Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (2019 Edition)

BACKGROUND

Primary liver cancer, around 90% are hepatocellular carcinoma in China, is the fourth most common malignancy and the second leading cause of tumor-related death, thereby posing a significant threat to the life and health of the Chinese people.

SUMMARY

Since the publication of Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Primary Liver Cancer (2017 Edition) in 2018, additional high-quality evidence has emerged with relevance to the diagnosis, staging, and treatment of liver cancer in and outside China that requires the guidelines to be updated. The new edition (2019 Edition) was written by more than 70 experts in the field of liver cancer in China. They reflect the real-world situation in China regarding diagnosing and treating liver cancer in recent years.

KEY MESSAGES

Most importantly, the new guidelines were endorsed and promulgated by the Bureau of Medical Administration of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China in December 2019.

Nomogram for prediction of the international study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS) grade B/C Posthepatectomy liver failure in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients: an external validation and prospective application study

BACKGROUND

To develop a nomogram for predicting the International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS) grade B/C posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

Patients initially treated with hepatectomy were included. Univariate regression analysis and stochastic forest algorithm were applied to extract the core indicators and reduce redundancy bias. The nomogram was then constructed by using multivariate logistic regression, and validated in internal and external cohorts, and a prospective clinical application.

RESULTS

There were 900, 300 and 387 participants in training, internal and external validation cohorts, with the morbidity of grade B/C PHLF were 13.5, 11.0 and 20.2%, respectively. The nomogram was generated by integrating preoperative total bilirubin, platelet count, prealbumin, aspartate aminotransferase, prothrombin time and standard future liver remnant volume, then achieved good prediction performance in training (AUC = 0.868, 95%CI = 0.836-0.900), internal validation (AUC = 0.868, 95%CI = 0.811-0.926) and external validation cohorts (AUC = 0.820, 95%CI = 0.756-0.861), with well-fitted calibration curves. Negative predictive values were significantly higher than positive predictive values in training cohort (97.6% vs. 33.0%), internal validation cohort (97.4% vs. 25.9%) and external validation cohort (94.3% vs. 41.1%), respectively. Patients who had a nomogram score < 169 or ≧169 were considered to have low or high risk of grade B/C PHLF. Prospective application of the nomogram accurately predicted grade B/C PHLF in clinical practise.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram has a good performance in predicting ISGLS grade B/C PHLF in HBV-related HCC patients and determining appropriate candidates for hepatectomy.

Association between spleen volume and the post-hepatectomy liver failure and overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

OBJECTIVES

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) can occur as a major complication after hepatic resection (HR) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and negatively affects the prognosis. We aimed to retrospectively assess whether the spleen volume (SV) measured from preoperative CT images would be associated with the development of PHLF and overall survival (OS) after HR in patients with HCC.

METHODS

We enrolled 317 consecutive patients with very early/early stage HCC who underwent a preoperative CT and HR between January 2010 and December 2016. The SV was obtained from preoperative CT images using semi-automated volumetric software and was divided by body surface area to yield SV_BSA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors affecting the development of PHLF. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify prognostic factors for OS.

RESULTS

PHLF was observed in 72 patients (22.7% [72/317]). SV_BSA was associated with the development of PHLF (odds ratio, 2.321; 95% CI, 1.347-4.001; p = 0.002) with the area under the ROC curve of 0.663 using the cutoff value of 107.5 cm³ (p < 0.001). SV_BSA was also an influencing factor for OS (hazard ratio, 3.935; 95% CI 1.520-10.184; p = 0.005), with the optimal cutoff of 146 cm³. The 5-year OS rate was higher in 245 patients with a SV_BSA ≤ 146 cm³ than in 72 patients with a SV_BSA > 146 cm³ (95.0% vs. 78.7%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HCC, a larger SV_BSA was associated with a higher rate of PHLF and worse OS after HR. The SV_BSA may be useful in selecting good surgical candidates.

KEY POINTS

• A significantly higher spleen volume divided by body surface area was observed in patients who experienced post-hepatectomy liver failure than in patients who did not (148 cm³ vs. 112 cm³, p < 0.001). • The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of spleen volume divided by body surface area to predict the development of post-hepatectomy liver failure was 0.663 (p < 0.001). • Spleen volume divided by body surface area was a significant influencing factor for overall survival (hazard ratio, 3.935; 95% CI, 1.520-10.184; p < 0.001), with the optimal cutoff of 146 cm³.

2019 Chinese clinical guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma: updates and insights

Importance

Approximately half of newly-diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases in the world occur in China, with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection being the predominant risk factor. Recently, the guidelines for the management of Chinese HCC patients were updated.

Objective

The past decade has witnessed a great improvement in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study reviews the recommendations in the 2019 Chinese guidelines and makes comparison with the practices from the Western world.

Evidence Review

The updated recommendations on the surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment algorithm of HCC in the 2019 Chinese guidelines were summarized, and comparisons among the updated Chinese guidelines, the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) guidelines were made.

Findings

Besides imaging and pathological diagnoses, novel biomarkers like the seven-micro-RNA panel are advocated for early diagnoses and therapeutic efficacy evaluation in the updated Chinese guidelines. The China liver cancer (CNLC) staging system, proposed in the 2017 guidelines, continues to be the standard model for patient classification, with subsequent modifications and updates being made in treatment allocations. Compared to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, the CNLC staging system employs resection, transplantation, and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for more progressed HCC. TACE in combination with other regional therapies like ablation or with systemic therapies like sorafenib are also encouraged in select patients in China. The systemic treatments for HCC have evolved considerably since lenvatinib, regorafenib, carbozantinib, ramucirumab and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs)were first prescribed as first-line or second-line agents.

Conclusions and Relevances

Novel biomarkers, imaging and operative techniques are recommended in the updated Chinese guideline. More aggressive treatment modalities are suggested for more progressed HBV-related HCC in China.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Preoperatively Estimate Post-hepatectomy Liver Dysfunction Risk and Long-term Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To develop a nomogram to estimate the risk of SPLD (International Study Group of Liver Surgery definition grade B or C) and long-term survival in patients with HCC before hepatectomy.

BACKGROUND

SPLD is the leading cause of post-hepatectomy mortality. The decision to refer an HCC patient for hepatectomy is mainly based on the survival benefit and SPLD risk. Prediction of SPLD risk before hepatectomy is of great significance.

METHODS

A total of 2071 consecutive patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC were recruited and randomly divided into the development cohort (n = 1036) and internal validation cohort (n = 1035). Five hundred ninety patients from another center were enrolled as the external validation cohort. A nomogram was developed based on independent preoperative predictors of SPLD determined in multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The SPLD incidences in the development, internal, and external validation cohorts were 10.1%, 9.5%, and 8.6%, respectively. Multivariable analysis identified total bilirubin, albumin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, prothrombin time, clinically significant portal hypertension, and major resection as independent predictors for SPLD. Incorporating these variables, the nomogram showed good concordance statistics of 0.883, 0.851, and 0.856, respectively in predicting SPLD in the 3 cohorts. Its predictive performance in SPLD, 90-day mortality, and overall survival (OS) outperformed Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin, and European Association for the Study of the Liver recommended algorithm. With a nomogram score of 137, patients were stratified into low and high risk of SPLD. High-risk patients also had decreased OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram showed good performance in predicting both SPLD and OS. It could help surgeons select suitable HCC patients for hepatectomy.

A nomogram for prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A retrospective study

To generate a nomogram to predict posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF), we attempted to elucidate salient risk factors in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).We performed a retrospective review of 665 patients with HCC who received hepatectomy in 2 academic institutions in China. Independent risk factors for PHLF were identified from putative demographic, intrinsic, biochemical, surgery-related, and volumetric data. A predictive nomogram was formulated based on relevant risk factors, and we compared this with existing models.We identified clinical signs of portal hypertension (P = .023), serum total bilirubin (P = .001), serum creatinine (P = .039), and intraoperative hemorrhage (P = .015) as being important risk factors in predicting PHLF. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.906 for the externally validated data. The nomogram displayed better predictive value than 2 of the other most cited models (C-indices of 0.641 and 0.616, respectively) in the current cohort. Additionally, we were able to patients into low- (<10%), intermediate- (10-30%), and high-risk (≥30%) groups based on the nomogram. This allows us to facilitate person-specific management.Here, we constructed a simple nomogram for prediction of PHLF in patients with HCC weighted by independent risk factors. Further prospective studies are required to confirm the predictive ability of our nomogram.

2018 Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer globally and the fourth most common cancer in men in Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle-aged and elderly patients. These practice guidelines will provide useful and constructive advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 44 experts in hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology in the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2014 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions.

2018 Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer globally and the fourth most common cancer in men in Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle-aged and elderly patients. These practice guidelines will provide useful and constructive advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 44 experts in hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology and radiation oncology in the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2014 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions.

Development and validation of a prognostic index for efficacy evaluation and prognosis of first-line chemotherapy in stage III-IV lung squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To establish a pre-therapy prognostic index model (PIM) of the first-line chemotherapy aiming to achieve accurate prediction of time to progression (TTP) and overall survival among the patients diagnosed with locally advanced (stage III) or distant metastasis (stage IV) lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC).

METHODS

Ninety-six LSCC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy were retrospectively enrolled to build the model. Fourteen epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant LSCC patients treated with first-line EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy were enrolled for validation dataset. From CT images, 56,000 phenotype features were initially computed. PIM was constructed by integrating a CT phenotype signature selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and the significant blood-based biomarkers selected by multivariate Cox regression. PIM was then compared with other four prognostic models constructed by the CT phenotype signature, clinical factors, post-therapy tumor response, and Glasgow Prognostic Score.

RESULTS

The signature includes eight optimal features extracted from co-occurrence, run length, and Gabor features. By using PIM, chemotherapy efficacy of patients categorized in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk progression subgroups (median TTP = 7.2 months, 3.4 months, and 1.8 months, respectively) was significantly different (p < 0.0001, log-rank test). Chemotherapy efficacy of the low-risk progression subgroup was comparable with EGFR-TKI therapy (p = 0.835, log-rank test). Prognostic prediction of chemotherapy efficacy by PIM was significantly higher than other models (p < 0.05, z test).

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated that the PIM yielded significantly higher performance to identify individual stage III-IV LSCC patients who can potentially benefit most from first-line chemotherapy, and predict the risk of failure from chemotherapy for individual patients.

KEY POINTS

• TTP and OS of first-line chemotherapy in individual stage III-IV LSCC patients could be predicted by pre-therapy blood-based biomarkers and image-based signatures. • Risk status of pre-therapy indicators affected the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy in stage III-IV LSCC patients. • Those stage III-IV LSCC patients who were able to achieve similar efficacy to EGFR-TKI therapy through chemotherapy were identified.

MRI-based nomogram estimates the risk of recurrence of primary nonmetastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors after curative resection

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimation of the recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors help with prognosis, guide follow-up, and avoid futile treatments.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether MRI features could preoperatively estimate the recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) and to refine a novel prognostic model through developing a nomogram incorporating various MRI features.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

In all, 81 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed nonmetastatic PNETs.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCES

1.5 T MR, including T₁ -weighted, T₂ -weighted, and diffusion-weighted imaging sequences.

ASSESSMENT

Qualitative and quantitative MRI features of PNET were assessed by three experienced radiologists.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Uni- and multivariable analyses for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model. The MRI-based nomogram was then designed based on multivariable logistic analysis in our study and the performance of the nomogram was validated according to C-index, calibration, and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

MRI features, including tumor size (hazard ratio [HR]: 14.131; P = 0.034), enhancement pattern (HR: 21.821, P = 0.032), and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values (HR: 0.055, P = 0.038) were significant independent predictors of RFS at multivariable analysis. The performance of the nomogram incorporating various MRI features (with a C-index of 0.910) was improved compared with that based on tumor size, enhancement pattern, and ADC alone (with C-index values of 0.672, 0.851, and 0.809, respectively). The calibration curve of the nomogram exhibited perfect consistency between estimation and observation at 0.5, 1, and 2 years after surgery. The decision curve showed that a nomogram incorporating three features had more favorable clinical predictive usefulness than any single feature.

DATA CONCLUSION

MRI features can be considered effective recurrence predictors for PNETs after surgery. The preliminary nomogram incorporating various MRI features could assess the risk of recurrence in PNETs and may be used to optimize individual treatment strategies.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2019;50:397-409.

Low Preoperative Platelet Count Predicts Risk of Subclinical Posthepatectomy Liver Failure in Right Lobe Donors for Liver Transplantation

Living donor right hepatectomy (LDRH) is a common procedure in adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation, but it is associated with a higher risk of posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) compared with left hepatectomy because of a smaller remnant. We identified risk factors for PHLF and other complications in LDRH, verified the appropriateness of the criteria, and explored the possibility of adjusting the minimum remnant liver volume (RLV) based on individual risk. Between October 2005 and November 2017, 254 donors undergoing LDRH at Kyoto University Hospital were enrolled. Clinical data were collected retrospectively. All complications were graded according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. No donors had grade 4 or 5 complications or clinically significant grade B or C PHLF. Grade A PHLF occurred in 30 donors (11.8%). Male sex (P = 0.01), lower preoperative platelet count (PLT; P = 0.01), higher prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (P = 0.03), higher total bilirubin (P = 0.01), smaller RLV (P = 0.03), and greater blood loss (P = 0.04) were associated with increased risk of PHLF in the univariate analysis, whereas PLT, RLV, and blood loss remained significant in the multivariate analysis. Grade 2 or 3 complications were observed in 32 (12.6%) donors. Higher body mass index (BMI; P = 0.002) and larger blood loss (P = 0.02) were identified as risk factors for complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 2) in univariate analysis. Only BMI remained significant in the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, LDRH is performed safely with acceptable morbidity under the current criteria. Minimum RLV may be marginally adjusted by PLT and reducing intraoperative blood loss minimizes PHLF risk. Liver Transplantation 00 000-000 2018 AASLD.

The role of imaging in prediction of post-hepatectomy liver failure

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is not only a leading cause of mortality but also a leading cause of life-threatening complications in patients undergoing liver resection. The ability to accurately detect the emergence of PHLF represents a crucially important step. Currently, PHLF can be predicted by a comprehensive evaluation of biological, clinical, and anatomical parameters. With the development of new technologies, imaging methods including elastography, diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, and gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid-enhanced MRI play a more significant role in the pre-operative prediction and assessment of PHLF. In this review, we summarize the mainstream studies, with the aim of evaluating the role of imaging and improving the clinical value of existing scoring systems for predicting PHLF.