Distribution and invasion risk assessments of Chrysodeixis includens (Walker, [1858]) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) using CLIMEX

Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model

Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040-2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.

Investigating the Migratory Behavior of Soybean Looper, a Major Pest of Soybean, through Comparisons with the Corn Pest Fall Armyworm Using Mitochondrial Haplotypes and a Sex-Linked Marker

The Noctuid moth soybean looper (SBL), Chrysodeixis includens (Walker), is an economically important pest of soybean (Glycine max (Linnaeus) Merrill). Because it is not known to survive freezing winters, permanent populations in the United States are believed to be limited to the southern regions of Texas and Florida, yet its geographical range of infestations annually extend to Canada. This indicates annual migrations of thousands of kilometers during the spring and summer growing season. This behavior is like that of the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), also a Noctuid that is a major global pest of corn. SBL and FAW are projected to have very similar distributions of permanent populations in North America based on climate suitability modeling and the overlap in the distribution of their preferred host plants (corn and soybean). It therefore seems likely that the two species will display similar migratory behavior in the United States. This was tested by identifying genetic markers in SBL analogous to those successfully used to delineate FAW migratory pathways and comparing the distribution patterns of the markers from the two species. Contrary to expectations, the results indicate substantial differences in migratory behavior that appear to be related to differences in the timing of corn and soybean plantings. These findings underscore the importance of agricultural practices in influencing pest migration patterns, in particular the timing of host availability relative to mean seasonal air transport patterns.

Distribution and interaction of the suitable areas of Beauveria bassiana and Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel)

Climate is a key factor affecting the potential distribution of insects, and the host is another important constraint for the distribution of pests. To elucidate changes in the potential distribution of Beauveria bassiana under climate change scenarios, this paper used the data of two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) to predict the potential distribution of B. bassiana and its typical host, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), based on the MaxEnt model. Then, the potential distribution of B. bassiana and B. dorsalis (Hendel) was compared, and their suitable growth area’s change and expansion trend under two different GHG emission scenarios were mastered. The results of this study show that the potential distribution area of B. bassiana will increase by 2,050 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, mainly in central Europe and southwestern Asia, with an increased area of 3.28 × 105 km2. However, under the climate scenario of RCP2.6, the potential distribution area for B. bassiana decreased by 2.0 × 105 km2, mainly in North America. This study will provide a theoretical basis for the control of B. dorsalis (Hendel) with B. bassiana.

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×10⁴ km², and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×10⁴ km²), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30-50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20-60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Digitaria insularis: Risk Analysis of Areas with Potential for Selection of Glyphosate-Resistant Biotypes in Eucalyptus Crops in Brazil

The objective of this study was to model the spatio-temporal distribution of Digitaria insularis (D. insularis) and analyze the risk of selection of glyphosate-resistant biotypes in eucalyptus cultivation in Brazil. Global data on the distribution of the specie were collected and associated with their ideal growth characteristics. The models were generated using Climex software, providing a predictive modeling technique. Biological data, species distribution, and climatic parameters were used to predict and map potential areas for the species of interest through the combination of growth and stress indices, giving rise to the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The spatial distribution of D. insularis is predominantly in South and Central America and southern North America. The model had a good fit with the collected data and predicted higher EI values for tropical and subtropical regions, as was the case in Brazil. Species growth can occur throughout the year, with lower rates in winter, mainly in the country’s southern regions. Brazil has high climatic suitability for the occurrence of Digitaria insularis. Due to the climate suitability evidenced by the models and the expressive use of the same active ingredient, there is a risk of selecting glyphosate-resistant Digitaria insularis biotypes in eucalyptus cultivation areas.