Exploring Linkages between Abiotic Oceanographic Processes and a Top-trophic Predator in an Antarctic Ecosystem

Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size-dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual- and population-level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture-mark-recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture-recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco-evolutionary mechanisms acting on size-specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.

Sources of variation in maternal allocation in a long-lived mammal

Life history theory predicts allocation of energy to reproduction varies with maternal age, but additional maternal features may be important to the allocation of energy to reproduction.

We aimed to characterize age‐specific variation in maternal allocation and assess the relationship between maternal allocation and other static and dynamic maternal features.

Mass measurements of 531 mothers and pups were used with Bayesian hierarchical models to explain the relationship between diverse maternal attributes and both the proportion of mass allocated by Weddell seal mothers, and the efficiency of mass transfer from mother to pup during lactation as well as the weaning mass of pups.

Our results demonstrated that maternal mass was strongly and positively associated with the relative reserves allocated by a mother and a pup's weaning mass but that the efficiency of mass transfer declines with maternal parturition mass. Birthdate was positively associated with proportion mass allocation and pup weaning mass, but mass transfer efficiency was predicted to be highest at the mean birthdate. The relative allocation of maternal reserves declined with maternal age but the efficiency of mass transfer to pups increases, suggestive of selective disappearance of poor‐quality mothers.

These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple maternal features when assessing variation in maternal allocation.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.