Using a novel climate-water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Assessing desertification vulnerability and mitigation strategies in northern Nigeria: A comprehensive approach

Desertification constitutes a grave threat to the environmental and socio-economic stability of desertification frontline states in Northern Nigeria. From 2003 to 2020, this research comprehensively analyzes desertification vulnerability, integrating parameters such as NDVI, LST, TVDI, MSAVI, and Albedo. Key factors contributing to land degradation are identified, along with the spatial patterns and trends of desertification over the two-decade period. The consequences are profound, with Northern Nigeria's ecosystem experiencing a steady decline in vegetation cover. Agriculture, vital to the region's economy, faces increased aridity and reduced arable land, jeopardizing food security. Diminishing water resources exacerbates scarcity issues, placing additional strain on communities. These environmental changes lead to severe socio-economic implications, including displacement, loss of livelihoods, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related risks. Urgent, comprehensive, and strategic interventions are imperative. Policy recommendations underscore revising and enforcing land use regulations, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and establishing monitoring systems to guide decision-making. This research contributes practical strategies to enhance the resilience of desertification frontline states, safeguard livelihoods, and align with Nigeria's sustainable development objectives. Findings from the study indicate that only a tiny percentage (6.7 %) of the study area remains unaffected by desertification. Moreover, 13.3 % exhibit light vulnerability, 20 % demonstrate moderate exposure, and 60 % fall into the severe (26.7 %) and compelling (33.3 %) vulnerability categories. These statistics underscore the gravity of desertification in the study area, emphasizing the urgent need for effective mitigation measures to address its impact comprehensively.

Adaptable and comprehensive vulnerability assessments for water resources systems in a rapidly changing world

Comprehensive and adaptive approaches to vulnerability assessment are crucial for guiding effective adaptation in global water resources systems. A common approach to quantify vulnerability is through indicators, which capture the 'spirit of vulnerability' while retaining practical ease-of-use benefits. However, a comprehensive meta-analysis of reveals two specific limitations of global indicator-based vulnerability assessments for water resources systems: 1) vulnerability is influenced by complex interactions among multi-domain factors, for which indicator quality and data vary; and 2) vulnerability is dynamic and evolves over time, an aspect overlooked in most approaches. In response to these identified challenges, we propose a new dynamic "build-your-own" approach to vulnerability assessment. Our approach focuses on correcting for the identified gaps and biases in indicators and data to improve assessment comprehensiveness. This approach also incorporates guidance around adapting assessments over time to better reflect vulnerability under changing conditions. The open-source nature of our approach and underlying data can facilitate the development and customization of indicator-based vulnerability assessments for diverse applications, supporting practical and relevant planning for more resilient water resources systems.

Improved Decision-Making: A Sociotechnical Utility-Based Framework for Drinking Water Investment

To achieve the goals of the Safe Drinking Water Act, state and local water authorities need to make decisions about where to direct limited funding for infrastructure improvements and currently do so in the absence of adequate evaluative metrics. We developed a framework grounded in utility theory that compares trade-offs explicitly and broadens the factors considered in prioritizing resource allocations. Relevant existing indices were reviewed to identify data applicable to drinking water decision-making. A utility-theory-based decision analysis framework was developed and applied to evaluate how different objectives affect funding decisions for lead service line replacement (LSLR) programs in Pennsylvania and Michigan, United States. The decision framework incorporates drinking water quality characteristics with community and environmental quality attributes. We compare additive and multiplicative model structures, different weights, and spatial scales. Our decision framework showed that the inclusion of additional data beyond what is usually considered in LSLR decisions could change the top 10 counties or public water systems prioritized. Further, the counties or water systems in the top 10 were influenced by the model structure and weights. Prioritization changed based on which data were included, and has implications for the use of evaluative metrics beyond traditional water system data.

Evaluating dual exposure by using climate-conflict vulnerability index on the coastal districts of Sindh, Pakistan

Climate variability is widely recognized as a major concern, particularly in resource-scarce regions where it limits livelihood opportunities by putting additional strain on already depleting resources, resulting in human insecurity and conflicts. Some vulnerability assessments have created a nexus between climate variability and conflicts. The Climate-Water Conflict Vulnerability Index (CWCVI) and the Climate-Agriculture Conflict Vulnerability Index (CACVI) are applied as a tool for exploring the climate and conflict interactions, as well as contrasting the vulnerabilities of the coastal districts of Badin, Thatta, and Sujawal. The analysis incorporates a dual exposure of communities in the form of climate variability and conflict over water and agricultural resources. The study finds that aggression and feelings of insecurity about depleting resources are the main contributing indicators of climate-conflict vulnerability in the coastal districts. District Sujawal showed higher vulnerability in adaptive capacity as compared to the other districts due to poor infrastructure and high dependency on natural resources. However, the district of Badin demonstrated high vulnerability in terms of sensitivity and its exposure to conflicts over agricultural resources is high. The overall CWCVI and CACVI scores were higher in Badin and Thatta, respectively. This study identifies a number of indicators that can be used to improve the efficacy of mitigation strategies to reduce conflict vulnerability in future policy directions and resource planning.

Conflict-Sensitive Climate Change Adaptation: A Review

Climate change adaptation (CCA) evolved in the global policy framework in the early 1990s. However, it began to flourish about a decade later through a subsequent development of institutions, policies and supporting financial mechanisms. Various adaptation approaches and development practices have been evolving over the last couple of decades through a process of scrutiny, debates, and critiques. One such recent approach is called conflict-sensitive adaptation, which encompasses concepts to understand potential conflict-inflicting elements and peacebuilding aspects of adaptation interventions. This paper examines 35 peer-reviewed research articles that have analysed field data with the notion of conceptualising conflict-sensitive CCA initiatives. Emerging key results were presented and discussed in different academic forums to stimulate peer reflections and debates. We found that the understanding of conflict-sensitive adaptation has its universality in engaging with diverse stakeholders. However, practicalities were different in the cases of the global north and the global south. In the global south, there is a concentration of research in areas of pre-existing conflict in Africa and Asia, where climate change links are often assumed from IPCC reports in order to compensate for the unavailability of field data. However, from the perspective of adaptation politics and governance, there is a concerted urge for the emancipatory participation of local and marginalised populations. We argue for a need to pretest adaptation projects through a conflict lens. Decolonising the adaptation and understanding of local geography is critical in such planning.

The Impact of Livelihood Assets on the Food Security of Farmers in Southern Iran during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The impact of COVID-19 on farmers' livelihoods and food security is a key concern in rural communities. This study investigates the impacts of the livelihood assets on the food security of rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic and determines those factors related to food security. The population of this study includes rural households in Dashtestan county, Bushehr province, in southern Iran. Based on the Krejcie and Morgan sampling table, 293 households were selected using the convenience sampling method. To measure food security, the American standard index and ordinal regression are used to analyze the factors. The results of the food security situation show highly precarious and food insecure situations among the studied rural households. The regression analysis shows that the most important assets affecting the food security of rural households under COVID-19 are financial, psychological, physical, and human assets, respectively. The results can help rural development planners and policymakers to improve both livelihoods and food security in rural communities, not just during the COVID-19 pandemic, but also in its aftermath.

Double Exposures: Future Water Security across Urban Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is one of the most dynamic regions in the world in terms of economic growth and urbanization. At the same time, the region is also prone to multiple hydro-meteorological disasters, which are projected to be intensified by climate change. This paper analyzes the combined effect of economic development and climate change on the future water security of middle-income Southeast Asian countries using the double exposure framework, focusing on the effects in urban areas. A review of the existing literature reveals unequal water security outcomes across the region as a result of combined climate, economic, and urbanization pressures. The water supply and sanitation infrastructure of upper-middle-income Southeast Asian countries are vulnerable to damage from intensified disasters, potentially decreasing both immediate and longer-term water quality. In lower-middle-income countries, the water quality will be the more important water security challenge in the short-term as opposed to water quantity, mainly due to the fast growth of industries. Lower-middle-income countries, though less vulnerable to disasters, will still have lower future water security compared to upper-middle-income countries, as they have less capacity to address water quality and quantity challenges brought about by both industrial growth and urbanization. Across the region, future water quantity and quality challenges may result in slower economic and urban growth if not planned adequately.