Defining patch contribution in source-sink metapopulations: the importance of including dispersal and its relevance to marine systems

Offshore oil and gas infrastructure plays a minor role in marine metapopulation dynamics

Decommissioning consequences of offshore oil and gas infrastructure removal on marine population dynamics, including connectivity, are not well understood. We modelled the connectivity and metapopulation dynamics of three fish and two benthic invertebrate species inhabiting the natural rocky reefs and offshore oil and gas infrastructure located in the Bass Strait, south-east Australia. Using a network approach, we found that platforms are not major sources, destinations, or stepping-stones for most species, yet act as modest sources for connectivity of Corynactis australis (jewel anemone). In contrast, sections of subsea pipelines appear to act as stepping-stones, source and destination habitats of varying strengths for all study species, except for Centrostephanus rodgersii (long-spined sea urchin). Natural reefs were the main stepping-stones, local source, and destination habitats for all study species. These reefs were largely responsible for the overall metapopulation growth of all study species (average of 96 % contribution across all species), with infrastructure acting as a minor contributor (<2 % average contribution). Full or partial decommissioning of platforms should have a very low or negligible impact on the overall metapopulation dynamics of the species explored, except C. australis, while full removal of pipelines could have a low impact on the metapopulation dynamics of benthic invertebrate species and a moderate impact on fish species (up to 34.1 % reduction in the metapopulation growth). We recommend that the decision to remove offshore infrastructure, either in full or in-part, be made on a platform-by-platform basis and consider contributions of pipelines to connectivity and metapopulation dynamics.

Integrating dispersal, breeding and abundance data with graph theory for the characterization and management of functional connectivity in amphibian pondscapes

CONTEXT

Robust assessment of functional connectivity in amphibian population networks is essential to address their global decline. The potential of graph theory to characterize connectivity among amphibian populations has already been confirmed, but the movement data on which modelled graphs rely are often scarce and inaccurate. While probabilistic methods that account for intraspecific variability in dispersal better reflect the biological reality of functional connectivity, they must be informed by systematically recorded individual movement data, which are difficult to obtain for secretive taxa like amphibians.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim is to assess the applied potential of probabilistic graph theory to characterize overall connectivity across amphibian pondscapes using fine-scale capture-recapture data, and to inform conservation management based on the role of ponds on functional connectivity.

METHODS

We monitored an amphibian community in a pondscape located in a Spanish "dehesa" for 2 years. Photoidentification was used to build capture histories for individuals of six species, from which dispersal kernels and population sizes were estimated to model probabilistic graphs.

RESULTS

We obtained kernels of variable robustness for six species. Node importance for connectivity varied between species, but with common patterns such as shared road crossing areas and the presence of coincident interconnected pond clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of photoidentification, capture-recapture data and graph theory allowed us to characterize functional connectivity across the pondscape of study accounting for dispersal variability and identify areas where conservation actions could be most efficient. Our results highlight the need to account for interspecific differences in the study and management of amphibian pondscapes.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-022-01520-x.

Local connections and the larval competency strongly influence marine metapopulation persistence

The relationship between metapopulation stability and connectivity has long been investigated in ecology, however, most of these studies are focused on theoretical species and habitat networks, having limited ability to capture the complexity of real-world metapopulations. Network analysis became more important in modeling connectivity, but it is still uncertain which network metrics are reliable predictors of persistence. Here we quantify the impact of connectivity and larval life history on marine metapopulation persistence across the complex seascape of southeast Australia. Our work coupled network-based approaches and eigenanalysis to efficiently estimate metapopulation-wide persistence and the subpopulation contributions. Larval dispersal models were used to quantify species-specific metapopulation connectivity for five important fisheries species, each summarized as a migration matrix. Eigenanalysis helped to reveal metapopulation persistence and determine the importance of node-level network properties. Across metapopulations, the number of local outgoing connections was found to have the largest impact on metapopulation persistence, implying these hub subpopulations may be the most influential in real-world metapopulations. Results also suggest the length of the pre-competency period may be the most influential parameter on metapopulation persistence. Finally, we identified two major hot spots of local connectivity in southeast Australia, each contributing strongly to multispecies persistence. Managers and ecologists would benefit by employing similar approaches in making more efficient and more ecologically informed decisions and focusing more on local connectivity patterns and larval competency characteristics to better understand and protect real-world metapopulation persistence. Practically this could mean developing more marine protected areas at shorter distances and supporting collaborative research into the early life histories of the species of interest.

Persistence of a reef fish metapopulation via network connectivity: theory and data

Determining metapopulation persistence requires understanding both demographic rates and patch connectivity. Persistence is well understood in theory but has proved challenging to test empirically for marine and other species with high connectivity that precludes classic colonisation-extinction dynamics. Here, we assessed persistence for a yellowtail anemonefish (Amphiprion clarkii) metapopulation using 7 years of annual sampling data along 30 km of coastline. We carefully accounted for uncertainty in demographic rates. Despite stable population abundances through time and sufficient production of surviving offspring for replacement, the pattern of connectivity made the metapopulation unlikely to persist in isolation and reliant on immigrants from outside habitat. To persist in isolation, the metapopulation would need higher fecundity or to retain essentially all recruits produced. This assessment of persistence in a marine metapopulation shows that stable abundance alone does not indicate persistence, emphasising the necessity of assessing both demographic and connectivity processes to understand metapopulation dynamics.

A Next-Generation Approach to Calculate Source-Sink Dynamics in Marine Metapopulations

In marine systems, adult populations confined to isolated habitat patches can be connected by larval dispersal. Source-sink theory provides effective tools to quantify the effect of specific habitat patches on the dynamics of connected populations. In this paper, we construct the next-generation matrix for a marine metapopulation and demonstrate how it can be used to calculate the source-sink dynamics of habitat patches. We investigate the effect of environmental variables on the source-sink dynamics and demonstrate how the next-generation matrix can provide useful biological insight into transient as well as asymptotic dynamics of the model.

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals' "removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened." We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species' range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria-redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)-that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

Evaluating the metapopulation consequences of ecological traps

Ecological traps occur when environmental changes cause maladaptive habitat selection. Despite their relevance to metapopulations, ecological traps have been studied predominantly at local scales. How these local impacts scale up to affect the dynamics of spatially structured metapopulations in heterogeneous landscapes remains unexplored. We propose that assessing the metapopulation consequences of traps depends on a variety of factors that can be grouped into four categories: the probability of encounter, the likelihood of selection, the fitness costs of selection and species-specific vulnerability to these costs. We evaluate six hypotheses using a network-based metapopulation model to explore the relative importance of factors across these categories within a spatial context. Our model suggests (i) traps are most severe when they represent a large proportion of habitats, severely reduce fitness and are highly attractive, and (ii) species with high intrinsic fitness will be most susceptible. We provide the first evidence that (iii) traps may be beneficial for metapopulations in rare instances, and (iv) preferences for natal-like habitats can magnify the effects of traps. Our study provides important insight into the effects of traps at landscape scales, and highlights the need to explicitly consider spatial context to better understand and manage traps within metapopulations.

Role of sources and temporal sinks in a marine amphipod

Spatially structured habitats challenge populations to have positive growth rates and species often rely on dispersing propagules to occupy habitats outside their fundamental niche. Most marine species show two main life stages, a dispersing stage and a sedentary stage affecting distribution and abundance patterns. An experimental study on Corophium acherusicum, a colonial tube-building amphipod, showed the strong influence that a source population can have on new habitats. More importantly, this study shows the effect of temporal sinks where newly established populations can show reduced growth rates if the propagule supply from a source is removed. Sink populations had a reduction in abundance and became male-biased as females left colonies. The consequences arising from short-term dispersal and temporal sinks could be due to different selection pressures at the source and sink populations. These consequences can become reflected in long-term dynamics of marine populations if we shift focus to non-random dispersal models incorporating behaviour and stage-dependent dispersal.

Identifying the key biophysical drivers, connectivity outcomes, and metapopulation consequences of larval dispersal in the sea

BACKGROUND

Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes, developing an approach that integrates the entire population connectivity process from reproduction, through dispersal, and to the recruitment of individuals has been difficult. We present a population connectivity modelling framework and diagnostic approach for quantifying the impact of i) life histories, ii) demographics, iii) larval dispersal, and iv) the physical seascape, on the structure of connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. We illustrate this approach using the subtidal rocky reef ecosystem of Port Phillip Bay, were we provide a broadly-applicable framework of population connectivity and quantitative methodology for evaluating the relative importance of individual factors in determining local and system outcomes.

RESULTS

The spatial characteristics of marine population connectivity are primarily influenced by larval mortality, the duration of the pelagic larval stage, and the settlement competency characteristics, with significant variability imposed by the geographic setting and the timing of larval release. The relative influence and the direction and strength of the main effects were strongly consistent among 10 connectivity-based metrics.

CONCLUSIONS

These important intrinsic factors (mortality, length of the pelagic larval stage, and the extent of the precompetency window) and the spatial and temporal variability represent key research priorities for advancing our understanding of the connectivity process and metapopulation outcomes.

Germain C, Hilário A. Phenotypic variation and fitness in a metapopulation of tubeworms (Ridgeia piscesae Jones) at hydrothermal vents

We examine the nature of variation in a hot vent tubeworm, Ridgeia piscesae, to determine how phenotypes are maintained and how reproductive potential is dictated by habitat. This foundation species at northeast Pacific hydrothermal sites occupies a wide habitat range in a highly heterogeneous environment. Where fluids supply high levels of dissolved sulphide for symbionts, the worm grows rapidly in a “short-fat” phenotype characterized by lush gill plumes; when plumes are healthy, sperm package capture is higher. This form can mature within months and has a high fecundity with continuous gamete output and a lifespan of about three years in unstable conditions. Other phenotypes occupy low fluid flux habitats that are more stable and individuals grow very slowly; however, they have low reproductive readiness that is hampered further by small, predator cropped branchiae, thus reducing fertilization and metabolite uptake. Although only the largest worms were measured, only 17% of low flux worms were reproductively competent compared to 91% of high flux worms. A model of reproductive readiness illustrates that tube diameter is a good predictor of reproductive output and that few low flux worms reached critical reproductive size. We postulate that most of the propagules for the vent fields originate from the larger tubeworms that live in small, unstable habitat patches. The large expanses of worms in more stable low flux habitat sustain a small, but long-term, reproductive output. Phenotypic variation is an adaptation that fosters both morphological and physiological responses to differences in chemical milieu and predator pressure. This foundation species forms a metapopulation with variable growth characteristics in a heterogeneous environment where a strategy of phenotypic variation bestows an advantage over specialization.

The ecology, behaviour and physiology of fishes on coral reef flats, and the potential impacts of climate change

Reef flats, typically a low-relief carbonate and sand habitat in shallow water leeward of the reef crest, are one of the most extensive zones on Pacific coral reefs. This shallow zone often supports an abundant and diverse fish assemblage that is exposed to more significant variations in physical factors, such as water depth and movement, temperature and ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels, than most other reef fishes. This review examines the characteristics of reef flat fish assemblages, and then investigates what is known about how they respond to their biophysical environment. Because of the challenges of living in shallow, wave-exposed water, reef flats typically support a distinct fish assemblage compared to other reef habitats. This assemblage clearly changes across tidal cycles as some larger species migrate to deeper water at low tide and other species modify their behaviour, but quantitative data are generally lacking. At least some reef flat fish species are well-adapted to high temperatures, low oxygen concentrations and high levels of UV radiation. These behavioural and physiological adaptations suggest that there may be differences in the demographic processes between reef flat assemblages and those in deeper water. Indeed, there is some evidence that reef flats may act as nurseries for some species, but more research is required. Further studies are also required to predict the effects of climate change, which is likely to have multifaceted impacts on reef flats by increasing temperature, water motion and sediment load. Sea-level rise may also affect reef flat fish assemblages and food webs by increasing the amount of time that larger species are able to forage in this zone. The lack of data on reef flats is surprising given their size and relative ease of access, and a better understanding of their functional role within tropical marine seascapes is urgently required.

How do dispersal costs and habitat selection influence realized population connectivity?

Despite the importance of dispersal for population connectivity, dispersal is often costly to the individual. A major impediment to understanding connectivity has been a lack of data combining the movement of individuals and their survival to reproduction in the new habitat (realized connectivity). Although mortality often occurs during dispersal (an immediate cost), in many organisms costs are paid after dispersal (deferred costs). It is unclear how such deferred costs influence the mismatch between dispersal and realized connectivity. Through a series of experiments in the field and laboratory, we estimated both direct and indirect deferred costs in a marine bryozoan (Bugula neritina). We then used the empirical data to parameterize a theoretical model in order to formalize predictions about how dispersal costs influence realized connectivity. Individuals were more likely to colonize poor-quality habitat after prolonged dispersal durations. Individuals that colonized poor-quality habitat performed poorly after colonization because of some property of the habitat (an indirect deferred cost) rather than from prolonged dispersal per se (a direct deferred cost). Our theoretical model predicted that indirect deferred costs could result in nonlinear mismatches between spatial patterns of potential and realized connectivity. The deferred costs of dispersal are likely to be crucial for determining how well patterns of dispersal reflect realized connectivity. Ignoring these deferred costs could lead to inaccurate predictions of spatial population dynamics.

Connectivity dominates larval replenishment in a coastal reef fish metapopulation

Direct estimates of larval retention and connectivity are essential to understand the structure and dynamics of marine metapopulations, and optimize the size and spacing of reserves within networks of marine-protected areas (MPAs). For coral reef fishes, while there are some empirical estimates of self-recruitment at isolated populations, exchange among sub-populations has been rarely quantified. Here, we used microsatellite DNA markers and a likelihood-based parentage analysis to assess the relative magnitude of self-recruitment and exchange among eight geographically distinct sub-populations of the panda clownfish Amphiprion polymnus along 30 km of coastline near Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. In addition, we used an assignment/exclusion test to identify immigrants arriving from genetically distinct sources. Overall, 82 per cent of the juveniles were immigrants while 18 per cent were progeny of parents genotyped in our focal metapopulation. Of the immigrants, only 6 per cent were likely to be genetically distinct from the focal metapopulation, suggesting most of the connectivity is among sub-populations from a rather homogeneous genetic pool. Of the 18 per cent that were progeny of known adults, two-thirds dispersed among the eight sub-populations and only one-third settled back into natal sub-populations. Comparison of our data with previous studies suggested that variation in dispersal distances is likely to be influenced by the geographical setting and spacing of sub-populations.

Optimal networks of nature reserves can be found through eigenvalue perturbation theory of the connectivity matrix

Conservation and management of natural resources and biodiversity need improved criteria to select functional networks of protected areas. The connectivity within networks due to dispersal is rarely considered, partly because it is unclear how connectivity information can be included in the selection of protected areas. We present a novel and general method that applies eigenvalue perturbation theory (EPT) to select optimum networks of protected areas based on connectivity. At low population densities, characteristic of threatened populations, this procedure selects networks that maximize the growth rate of the overall network. This method offers an improved link between connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. Our framework is applied to connectivities estimated for marine larvae and demonstrates that, for open populations, the best strategy is to protect areas acting as both strong donors and recipients of recruits. It should be possible to implement an EPT framework for connectivity analysis into existing holistic tools for design of protected areas.

Phylogeography of the dark kangaroo mouse, Microdipodops megacephalus: cryptic lineages and dispersal routes in North America's Great Basin

AIM: The rodent genus Microdipodops (kangaroo mice) includes two sand-obligate endemics of the Great Basin Desert: M. megacephalus and M. pallidus. The dark kangaroo mouse, M. megacephalus, is distributed throughout the Great Basin and our principal aims were to formulate phylogenetic hypotheses for this taxon and make phylogeographical comparisons with its congener. LOCATION: The Great Basin Desert of western North America. METHODS: DNA sequence data from three mitochondrial genes were examined from 186 individuals of M. megacephalus, representing 47 general localities. Phylogenetic inference was used to analyse the sequence data. Directional analysis of phylogeographical patterns was used to examine haplotype sharing patterns and recover routes of gene exchange. Haplotype-area curves were constructed to evaluate the relationship between genetic variation and distributional island size for M. megacephalus and M. pallidus. RESULTS: Microdipodops megacephalus is a rare desert rodent (trapping success was 2.67%). Temporal comparison of trapping data shows that kangaroo mice are becoming less abundant in the study area. The distribution has changed slightly since the 1930s but many northern populations now appear to be small, fragmented, or locally extinct. Four principal phylogroups (the Idaho isolate and the western, central and eastern clades) are evident; mean sequence divergence between phylogroups for cytochrome b is c. 8%. Data from haplotype sharing show two trends: a north-south trend and a web-shaped trend. Analyses of haplotype-area curves reveal significant positive relationships. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The four phylogroups of M. megacephalus appear to represent morphologically cryptic species; in comparison, a companion study revealed two cryptic lineages in M. pallidus. Estimated divergence times of the principal clades of M. megacephalus (c. 2-4 Ma) indicate that these kangaroo mice were Pleistocene invaders into the Great Basin coincident with the formation of sandy habitats. The north-south and web patterns from directional analyses reveal past routes of gene flow and provide evidence for source-sink population regulation. The web pattern was not seen in the companion study of M. pallidus. Significant haplotype-area curves indicate that the distributional islands are now in approximate genetic equilibrium. The patterns described here are potentially useful to conservation biologists and wildlife managers and may serve as a model for other sand-obligate organisms of the Great Basin.

Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation

Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

Terrestrial habitat selection and strong density-dependent mortality in recently metamorphosed amphibians

To predict the effects of terrestrial habitat change on amphibian populations, we need to know how amphibians respond to habitat heterogeneity, and whether habitat choice remains consistent throughout the life-history cycle. We conducted four experiments to evaluate how the spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs, Rana sylvatica (including both overall abundance and localized density), was influenced by habitat choice and habitat structure, and how this relationship changed with spatial scale and behavioral phase. The four experiments included (1) habitat manipulation on replicated 10-ha landscapes surrounding breeding pools; (2) short-term experiments with individual frogs emigrating through a manipulated landscape of 1 m wide hexagonal patches; and habitat manipulations in (3) small (4-m2); and (4) large (100-m2) enclosures with multiple individuals to compare behavior both during and following emigration. The spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs following emigration resulted from differences in the scale at which juvenile amphibians responded to habitat heterogeneity during active vs. settled behavioral phases. During emigration, juvenile wood frogs responded to coarse-scale variation in habitat (selection between 2.2-ha forest treatments) but not to fine-scale variation. After settling, however, animals showed habitat selection at much smaller scales (2-4 m2). This resulted in high densities of animals in small patches of suitable habitat where they experienced rapid mortality. No evidence of density-dependent habitat selection was seen, with juveniles typically choosing to remain at extremely high densities in high-quality habitat, rather than occupying low-quality habitat. These experiments demonstrate how prediction of the terrestrial distribution of juvenile amphibians requires understanding of the complex behavioral responses to habitat heterogeneity. Understanding these patterns is important, given that human alterations to amphibian habitats may generate extremely high densities of animals, resulting in high density-dependent mortality.

Climatic and biotic stochasticity: disparate causes of convergent demographies in rare, sympatric plants

Species with known demographies may be used as proxies, or approximate models, to predict vital rates and ecological properties of target species that either have not been studied or are species for which data may be difficult to obtain. These extrapolations assume that model and target species with similar properties respond in the same ways to the same ecological factors, that they have similar population dynamics, and that the similarity of vital rates reflects analogous responses to the same factors. I used two rare, sympatric annual plants (sand gilia [Gilia tenuiflora arenaria] and Monterey spineflower [Chorizanthe pungens pungens]) to test these assumptions experimentally. The vital rates of these species are similar and strongly correlated with rainfall, and I added water and/or prevented herbivore access to experimental plots. Their survival and reproduction were driven by different, largely stochastic factors and processes: sand gilia by herbivory and Monterey spineflower by rainfall. Because the causal agents and processes generating similar demographic patterns were species specific, these results demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that it is critical to identify the ecological processes generating observed effects and that experimental manipulations are usually needed to determine causal mechanisms. Without such evidence to identify mechanisms, extrapolations among species may lead to counterproductive management and conservation practices.