Modelling the risk factors for injury severity in motorcycle users in Ghana

Bivariate ordered probit modelling of motorcycle riders and pillion passengers' injury severities relationship and associated risk factors

This study simultaneously modelled the injury severity of motorcycle riders and their pillion passengers and determine the associated risk factors. The analysis is based on motorcycle crashes data in Ashanti region of Ghana spanning from 2017 to 2019. The study implemented bivariate ordered probit model to identify the possible risk factors under the premise that the injury severity of pillion passenger is endogenously related to that of the rider in the event of crash. The model provides more efficient estimates by considered the common unobserved factors shared between rider and pillion passenger. The result shows a significant positive relationship between the two injury severities with a correlation coefficient of 0.63. Thus, the unobservable factors that increase the probability of the rider to sustain more severe injury in the event of crash also increase that of their corresponding pillion passenger. The rider and their pillion passenger injury severities have different propensity to some of the risk factors including passengers' gender, day of week, road width and light condition. In addition, the study found that time of day, weather condition, collision type, and number of vehicles involved in the crash jointly influence the injury severity of both rider and pillion passenger significantly.

Identifying emerging hot spots of road traffic injury severity using spatiotemporal methods: longitudinal analyses on major roads in Ghana from 2005 to 2020

BACKGROUND

Although road traffic injuries and deaths have decreased globally, there is substantial national and sub-national heterogeneity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Ghana is one of few countries in Africa collecting comprehensive, spatially detailed data on motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). This data is a critical step towards improving roadway safety, as accurate and reliable information is essential for devising targeted countermeasures.

METHODS

Here, we analyze 16 years of police-report data using emerging hot spot analysis in ArcGIS to identify hot spots with trends of increasing injury severity (a weighted composite measure of MVCs, minor injuries, severe injuries, and deaths), and counts of injuries, severe injuries, and deaths along major roads in urban and rural areas of Ghana.

RESULTS

We find injury severity index sums and minor injury counts are significantly decreasing over time in Ghana while severe injury and death counts are not, indicating the latter should be the focus for road safety efforts. We identify new, consecutive, intensifying, and persistent hot spots on 2.65% of urban roads and 4.37% of rural roads. Hot spots are intensifying in terms of severity and frequency on major roads in rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

A few key road sections, particularly in rural areas, show elevated levels of road traffic injury severity, warranting targeted interventions. Our method for evaluating spatiotemporal trends in MVC, road traffic injuries, and deaths in a LMIC includes sufficient detail for replication and adaptation in other countries, which is useful for targeting countermeasures and tracking progress.

Generating consensus on road safety issues and priorities in Ghana: A modified Delphi approach

BACKGROUND

Implementation of evidence-based approaches to reduce the substantial health, social, and financial burdens of road traffic injuries and deaths in Ghana and other low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is vitally important. Consensus from national stakeholders can provide insight into what evidence to generate and which interventions to prioritize for road safety. The main objective of this study was to elicit expert views on the barriers to reaching international and national road safety targets, the gaps in national-level research, implementation, and evaluation, and the future action priorities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used an iterative three-round modified Delphi process to generate consensus among Ghanaian road safety stakeholders. We defined consensus as 70% or more stakeholders selecting a specific response in the survey. We defined partial consensus (termed "majority") as 50% or more stakeholders selecting a particular response.

RESULTS

Twenty-three stakeholders from different sectors participated. Experts generated consensus on barriers to road safety goals, including the poor regulation of commercial and public transport vehicles and limited use of technology to monitor and enforce traffic behaviors and laws. Stakeholders agreed that the impact of increasing motorcycle (2- and 3-wheel) use on road traffic injury burden is poorly understood and that it is a priority to evaluate road-user risk factors such as speed, helmet use, driving skills, and distracted driving. One emerging area was the impact of unattended/disabled vehicles along roadways. There was consensus on the need for additional research, implementation, and evaluation efforts of several interventions, including focused treatment of hazardous spots, driver training, road safety education as part of academic curricula, promotion of community involvement in first aid, development of strategically positioned trauma centers, and towing of disabled vehicles.

CONCLUSION

This modified Delphi process with stakeholders from Ghana generated consensus on road safety research, implementation, and evaluation priorities.

Environmental Factors Associated with Severe Motorcycle Crash Injury in University Neighborhoods: A Multicenter Study in Taiwan

University neighborhoods in Taiwan have high-volume traffic, which may increase motorcyclists' risk of injury. However, few studies have analyzed the environmental factors affecting motorcycle crash injury severity in university neighborhoods. In this multicenter cross-sectional study, we explored the factors that increase the severity of such injuries, especially among young adults. We retrospectively connected hospital data to the Police Traffic Accident Dataset. Areas within 500 m of a university were considered university neighborhoods. We analyzed 4751 patients, including 513 with severe injury (injury severity score ≥ 8). Multivariate analysis revealed that female sex, age ≥ 45 years, drunk driving, early morning driving, flashing signals, and single-motorcycle crashes were risk factors for severe injury. Among patients aged 18-24 years, female sex, late-night and afternoon driving, and flashing signals were risk factors. Adverse weather did not increase the risk. Time to hospital was a protective factor, reflecting the effectiveness of urban emergency medical services. Lifestyle habits among young adults, such as drunk driving incidents and afternoon and late-night driving, were also explored. We discovered that understanding chaotic traffic in the early morning, flashing signals at the intersections, and roadside obstacles is key for mitigating injury severity from motorcycle crashes in university neighborhoods.

What Factors Would Make Single-Vehicle Motorcycle Crashes Fatal? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

The existing research on motorcycle safety has shown that single-vehicle motorcycle crashes (SVMC) account for a higher fatality rate than other types of crashes. Also, motorcycle safety has become one of the critical traffic safety issues in many developing countries, such as Pakistan, due to the growing number of motorcycles and lack of sufficient relevant infrastructure. However, the available literature on SVMC and motorcycle safety in developing countries is limited. Therefore, the present study attempted to investigate the factors that contribute to the injury severity of SVMC in a developing country, Pakistan. For this purpose, a random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances is developed using two years of data extracted from the road traffic injury research project in Karachi city, Pakistan. The study's findings show that the presence of pillion passengers and young motorcyclists indicators result in random parameters with heterogeneity in their means and variances. The study's results also reveal that the summer, morning time, weekends, older motorcyclists, collisions with fixed objects, speeding, and overtaking are positively, while younger motorcyclists and the presence of pillion passengers are negatively associated with fatal crashes. More importantly, in the particular Pakistan's context, female pillion passenger clothes trapped in the wheel, riding under the influence, intersections, U-turns, and collisions due to loss of control are also found to significantly influence the injury severity of SVMC. Based on these research findings, multiple appropriate countermeasures are recommended to enhance motorcycle safety in Pakistan and other developing countries with similar problems.

Factors affecting motorcycle crash casualty severity at signalized and non-signalized intersections in Ghana: Insights from a data mining and binary logit regression approach

Despite the countless benefits derived from motorcycle usage, it has become a significant public health concern, particularly in developing countries, due to the plateauing number of fatal/serious injuries associated with them. Although it has been well documented that the frequency and fatality rates of intersection-related motorcycle crashes are high, little research efforts have been made to explore the contributory factors influencing motorcycle-involved crashes at these locations. Interestingly, no study has investigated the latent patterns and chains of factors that simultaneously contribute to the injury severity sustained by motorcycle crash casualties at intersections under different traffic control conditions in developing countries. Since motorcycles are mostly used as taxis in developing countries, it is imperative to consider the injury severity sustained by all crash casualties in the motorcycle safety analysis. This study bridges the research gap by employing a plausible data mining tool to explore hidden rules associated with motorcycle crash casualty injury severity outcomes at both signalized and non-signalized intersections in Ghana's most densely populated region, Accra, using three-year crash data spanning 2016-2018. Besides, a binary logit regression model was also employed to explore the impact of crash factors on casualty severity outcomes using the same dataset. The results from both analysis techniques were consistent; however, the data mining technique provided chains of factors which provided additional insights into the groups of factors that collectively influence the casualty injury severity outcomes. From the rule discovery results, while full license status, daytime/daylight, and shoulder presence increased the risk of fatal injuries at signalized intersections, factors such as inattentiveness, good road surface, nighttime, shoulder absence, and young rider were highly likely to increase casualty fatalities at non-signalized intersections. By controlling all or some of these risk factors, the level of injury severity on the roadways could be reduced. Based on the findings, we provide enforcement, education, and engineering-based recommendations to help improve motorcycle safety.