Prognosis of metachronous contralateral breast cancer: importance of stage, age and interval time between the two diagnoses

Nomograms predicting all-cause death and cancer-specific death in patients with bilateral primary breast cancer: a study based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results

Bilateral primary breast cancer (BPBC) patients have a worse prognosis. Tools for accurately predicting mortality risk in patients with BPBC are lacking in clinical practice. We aimed to develop a clinically useful prediction model for the death of BPBC patients. A total of 19,245 BPBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015 were randomly divided into the training set (n = 13,471) and test set (5,774). Models for predicting the 1-, 3- and 5-year death risk of BPBC patients were developed. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to develop the all-cause death prediction model, and competitive risk analysis was used to establish the cancer-specific death prediction model. The performance of the model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (CI), sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Age, married status, interval time and first and second tumor's status were associated with both all-cause death and cancer-specific death (all P < 0.05). The AUC of Cox regression models predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year all-cause death was 0.854 (95% CI, 0.835-0.874), 0.838 (95% CI, 0.823-0.852) and 0.799 (95% CI, 0.785-0.812), respectively. The AUC of competitive risk models to predict 1-, 3- and 5-year cancer-specific death was 0.878 (95% CI, 0.859-0.897), 0.866 (95% CI, 0.852-0.879) and 0.854 (95% CI, 0.841-0.867), respectively. Nomograms were developed to predict all-cause death and cancer-specific death in BPBC patients, which may provide tools for clinicians to predict the death risk of BPBC patients.

Development of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with secondary bone tumors in the intensive care unit: a retrospective analysis based on the MIMIC IV database

PURPOSE

The present study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with secondary bone tumors in the intensive care unit to facilitate risk stratification and treatment planning.

METHODS

We used the MIMIC IV 2.0 (the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV) to retrieve patients with secondary bone tumors as a study cohort. To evaluate the predictive ability of each characteristic on patient mortality, stepwise Cox regression was used to screen variables, and the selected variables were included in the final Cox proportional hazard model. Finally, the performance of the model was tested using the decision curve, calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

A total of 1028 patients were enrolled after excluding cases with missing information. In the training cohort, albumin, APSIII (Acute Physiology Score III), chemotherapy, lactate, chloride, hepatic metastases, respiratory failure, SAPSII (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II), and total protein were identified as independent risk factors for patient death and then incorporated into the final model. The model showed good and robust prediction performance.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram prognostic model for patients with secondary bone tumors in the intensive care unit, which provides effective survival prediction information.

Population-level impact of adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine on the incidence of metastatic breast cancer: an epidemiological prediction model of women with HER2-positive early breast cancer and residual disease following neoadjuvant therapy

PURPOSE

Treating early-stage breast cancer (eBC) may delay or prevent subsequent metastatic breast cancer (mBC). In the phase 3 KATHERINE study, women with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive eBC with residual disease following neoadjuvant therapy containing trastuzumab and a taxane experienced 50% reductions in disease recurrence or death when treated with adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) vs adjuvant trastuzumab. We predicted the population-level impact of adjuvant T-DM1 on mBC occurrence in five European countries (EU5) and Canada from 2021-2030.

METHODS

An epidemiological prediction model using data from national cancer registries, observational studies, and clinical trials was developed. Assuming 80% population-level uptake of adjuvant treatment, KATHERINE data were extrapolated prospectively to model projections. Robustness was evaluated in alternative scenarios.

RESULTS

We projected an eligible population of 116,335 women in Canada and the EU5 who may be diagnosed with HER2-positive eBC and have residual disease following neoadjuvant therapy from 2021-2030. In EU5, the cumulative number of women projected to experience relapsed mBC over the 10-year study period was 36,009 vs 27,143 under adjuvant trastuzumab vs T-DM1, a difference of 8,866 women, equivalent to 25% fewer cases with the use of adjuvant T-DM1 in EU5 countries from 2021-2030. Findings were similar for Canada.

CONCLUSION

Our models predicted greater reductions in the occurrence of relapsed mBC with adjuvant T-DM1 vs trastuzumab in the indicated populations in EU5 and Canada. Introduction of T-DM1 has the potential to reduce population-level disease burden of HER2-positive mBC in the geographies studied.

Survival After Development of Contralateral Breast Cancer in Korean Patients With Breast Cancer

Importance

Contralateral breast cancer (CBC) is the most frequently diagnosed primary cancer in patients with breast cancer. Although many studies have reported survival after the development of CBC, results have been inconsistent.

Objective

To investigate whether the development of CBC is associated with survival among patients with breast cancer.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted at the Asan Medical Center, Korea, among patients who were diagnosed with primary unilateral, nonmetastatic, stage 0 to III breast cancer between 1999 and 2013 and followed up through 2018. The median (IQR) follow-up was 107 (75-143) months. Patients were categorized into CBC and no-CBC groups by whether they developed CBC during the follow-up period. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to March 2023.

Exposure

Development of CBC.

Main outcomes and measures

Survival rates of CBC and no-CBC groups were compared using a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model in the entire study population and in subgroup analyses by interval of CBC development and subtype of the primary breast cancer.

Results

Among 16 251 patients with breast cancer (all Asian, specifically Korean; mean [SD] age, 48.61 [10.06] years), 418 patients developed CBC. There was no significant difference in overall survival between CBC and no-CBC groups (hazard ratio, 1.166; 95% CI, 0.820-1.657). Patients who developed CBC within 1.5 years after the surgery of the primary breast cancer had a higher risk for overall death during the study period (hazard ratio, 2.014; 95% CI, 1.044-3.886), and those who developed CBC after 1.5 years showed no significant difference in survival compared with the no-CBC group. Patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ERBB2, formerly HER2)-negative breast cancer had a higher risk for overall death in the CBC group (hazard ratio, 1.882; 95% CI, 1.143-3.098) compared with the no-CBC group.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that development of CBC in patients with breast cancer was not associated with survival but that early development of CBC after diagnosis of the primary breast cancer or development of CBC in patients with HR-positive/ERBB2-negative breast cancer was associated with survival. These results may provide valuable information for patients seeking advice on opting for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy.

The impact of coding germline variants on contralateral breast cancer risk and survival

Evidence linking coding germline variants in breast cancer (BC)-susceptibility genes other than BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2 with contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) is scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the association of protein-truncating variants (PTVs) and rare missense variants (MSVs) in nine known (ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, and TP53) and 25 suspected BC-susceptibility genes with CBC risk and BCSS. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox regression models. Analyses included 34,401 women of European ancestry diagnosed with BC, including 676 CBCs and 3,449 BC deaths; the median follow-up was 10.9 years. Subtype analyses were based on estrogen receptor (ER) status of the first BC. Combined PTVs and pathogenic/likely pathogenic MSVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, and TP53 and PTVs in CHEK2 and PALB2 were associated with increased CBC risk [HRs (95% CIs): 2.88 (1.70-4.87), 2.31 (1.39-3.85), 8.29 (2.53-27.21), 2.25 (1.55-3.27), and 2.67 (1.33-5.35), respectively]. The strongest evidence of association with BCSS was for PTVs and pathogenic/likely pathogenic MSVs in BRCA2 (ER-positive BC) and TP53 and PTVs in CHEK2 [HRs (95% CIs): 1.53 (1.13-2.07), 2.08 (0.95-4.57), and 1.39 (1.13-1.72), respectively, after adjusting for tumor characteristics and treatment]. HRs were essentially unchanged when censoring for CBC, suggesting that these associations are not completely explained by increased CBC risk, tumor characteristics, or treatment. There was limited evidence of associations of PTVs and/or rare MSVs with CBC risk or BCSS for the 25 suspected BC genes. The CBC findings are relevant to treatment decisions, follow-up, and screening after BC diagnosis.

Mortality after second malignancy in breast cancer survivors compared to a first primary cancer: a nationwide longitudinal cohort study

Limited information exists about survival outcomes after second primary cancers (SPCs) among breast cancer survivors. Studies suggest that mortality after certain SPCs may be higher than mortality after first primary cancers (FPCs) of the same type. A cohort study was conducted among 63,424 US women using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 database (2000–2016) to compare mortality after a SPC among breast cancer survivors to mortality among women after a FPC using Cox proportional hazard regression. Propensity scores were used to match survivors with SPCs to women with FPCs 1:1 based on cancer type and prognostic factors. During a median follow-up of 42 months, 11,532 cancer deaths occurred after SPCs among survivors compared to 9305 deaths after FPCs. Cumulative cancer mortality was 44.7% for survivors with SPCs and 35.2% for women with FPCs. Survivors with SPCs had higher risk of cancer death (hazard ratio (HR): 1.27, 95% CI: 1.23–1.30) and death overall (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.15–1.21) than women with FPCs. Increased risk of cancer death after SPCs compared to FPCs was observed for cancer in breast, lung, colon and/or rectum, uterus, lymphoma, melanoma, thyroid, and leukemia. Estrogen receptor status and treatment of the prior breast cancer as well as time between prior breast cancer and SPC significantly modified the mortality difference between women with SPC and FPC. A more tailored approach to early detection and treatment could improve outcomes from second cancer in breast cancer survivors.

[Non-genetic indications for risk reducing mastectomies: Guidelines of the National College of French Gynecologists and Obstetricians (CNGOF)]

OBJECTIVE

To determine the value of performing a risk-reducting mastectomy (RRM) in the absence of a deleterious variant of a breast cancer susceptibility gene, in 4 clinical situations at risk of breast cancer.

DESIGN

The CNGOF Commission of Senology, composed of 26 experts, developed these recommendations. A policy of declaration and monitoring of links of interest was applied throughout the process of making the recommendations. Similarly, the development of these recommendations did not benefit from any funding from a company marketing a health product. The Commission of Senology adhered to the AGREE II (Advancing guideline development, reporting and evaluation in healthcare) criteria and followed the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) method to assess the quality of the evidence on which the recommendations were based. The potential drawbacks of making recommendations in the presence of poor quality or insufficient evidence were highlighted.

METHODS

The Commission of Senology considered 8 questions on 4 topics, focusing on histological, familial (no identified genetic abnormality), radiological (of unrecognized cancer), and radiation (history of Hodgkin's disease) risk. For each situation, it was determined whether performing RRM compared with surveillance would decrease the risk of developing breast cancer and/or increase survival.

RESULTS

The Commission of Senology synthesis and application of the GRADE method resulted in 11 recommendations, 6 with a high level of evidence (GRADE 1±) and 5 with a low level of evidence (GRADE 2±).

CONCLUSION

There was significant agreement among the Commission of Senology members on recommendations to improve practice for performing or not performing RRM in the clinical setting.

Nomogram to predict contralateral breast cancer risk in breast cancer survivors: A SEER-based study

The main purpose of this study was to build a prediction model for patients with contralateral breast cancer (CBC) using competing risks methodology. The aim is to help clinicians predict the probability of CBC in breast cancer (BC) survivors.We reviewed data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of 434,065 patients with BC. Eligible patients were used to quantify the association between the development of CBC and multiple characteristics of BC patients using competing risk models. A nomogram was also created to facilitate clinical visualization and analysis. Finally, the stability of the model was verified using concordance index and calibration plots, and decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the model by calculating the net benefit.Four hundred thirty-four thousand sixty-five patients were identified, of whom 6944 (1.6%) developed CBC in the 10 years follow-up. The 10-year cumulative risk of developing CBC was 2.69%. According to a multivariate competing risk model, older patients with invasive lobular carcinoma who had undergone unilateral BC surgery, and whose tumor was better differentiated, of smaller size and ER-negative/PR-positive, had a higher risk of CBC. The calibration plots illustrated an acceptable correlation between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation, as the calibration curve was closed to the 45° diagonal line. The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.65, which indicated it was well calibrated for individual risk of CBC. Decision curve analysis produced a wide range of risk thresholds under which the model we built would yield a net benefit.BC survivors remain at high risk of developing CBC. Patients with CBC have a worse clinical prognosis compared to those with unilateral BC. We built a predictive model for the risk of developing CBC based on a large data cohort to help clinicians identify patients at high risk, which can then help them plan individualized surveillance and treatment.

Increased risk of breast cancer-specific mortality among cancer survivors who developed breast cancer as a second malignancy

Background

Cancer survivors who develop breast cancer as a second malignancy (BCa-2) are common. Yet, little is known about the prognosis of BCa-2 compared to first primary breast cancer (BCa-1).

Methods

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we conducted a population-based cohort study including 883,881 patients with BCa-1 and 36,313 patients with BCa-2 during 1990–2015. Compared with patients with BCa-1, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) of breast cancer-specific mortality among patients with BCa-2, using multivariable Cox regression.

Results

During the follow-up (median 5.5 years), 114,964 and 3829 breast cancer-specific deaths were identified among BCa-1 and BCa-2 patients, respectively. Patients with BCa-2 had more favorable tumor characteristics and received less intensive treatment e.g., surgery and chemo−/radio-therapy, compared to patients with BCa-1. When adjusting for demographic factors, patients with BCa-2 were at similar risk of breast cancer-specific mortality (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97–1.03) compared to patients with BCa-1. However, when additionally controlling for tumor characteristics and treatment modes, BCa-2 patients were at an increased risk of breast cancer-specific mortality (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.08–1.15). The risk elevation was particularly greater when the first malignancy was lung, bladder, ovarian or blood malignancy (HRs 1.16–1.85), or when the first malignancy was treated with chemotherapy and radiotherapy (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.28–1.63).

Conclusions

Overall, patients with BCa-2 have worse breast cancer-specific survival, compared with their BCa-1 counterparts, although the risk elevation is mild. High-risk subgroups based on first malignancy’s characteristics may be considered for active clinical management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08132-9.

Nomogram Predicts the Role of Contralateral Prophylactic Mastectomy in Male Patients With Unilateral Breast Cancer Based on SEER Database: A Competing Risk Analysis

Background

Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) in female breast cancer (FBC) is supported by multiple clinical studies and consensus guidelines, but knowledge of preventive contralateral mastectomy in male breast cancer (MaBC) is very limited and its benefits are still controversial.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was enrolled with 4,405 MaBC patients who underwent unilateral mastectomy (UM) or CPM from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1998 to 2015. A nomogram was built based on the corresponding parameters by competing risks regression to predict the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year probabilities of BCSD (breast cancer-specific death). C-index and calibration curves were chosen for validation. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to estimate the nomogram’s clinical utility.

Results

A total of 4,197 patients received UM and 208 patients received CPM, with 63-months median follow-up. In the competing risks regression, six variables (surgery, marital status, T-stage, N-stage, histology, tumor grade) were significantly associated with BCSD. Based on these independent prognosis factors, a nomogram model was constructed. The C-index 0.75 (95%CI: 0.73-0.77) in the training cohort and 0.73 (95%CI: 0.71-0.74) in the internal validation group suggested robustness of the model. In addition, the calibration curves exhibited favorably. The NRI values (training cohort: 0.54 for 3-year, 0.55 for 5-year, and 0.49 for 8-year BCSD prediction; validation cohort: 0.51 for 3-year, 0.45 for 5-year, and 0.33 for 8-year BCSD prediction) and IDI values (training cohort: 0.02 for 3-year, 0.03 for 5-year, and 0.04 for 8-year BCSD prediction; validation cohort: 0.02 for 3-year, 0.04 for 5-year, and 0.04 for 8-year BCSD prediction) indicated that the model performed better than the AJCC criteria-based tumor staging alone.

Conclusions

The administration of CPM was associated with the decrease in risk of BCSD in patients with MaBC. The nomogram could provide a precise and personalized prediction of the cumulative risk in patients with MaBC after CPM.

Association of molecular subtype concordance and survival outcome in synchronous and metachronous bilateral breast cancer

Background

The aim of this study was to analyze the association of molecular subtype concordance and disease outcome in patients with synchronous bilateral breast cancer (SBBC) and metachronous breast cancer (MBBC).

Patients and methods

Patients diagnosed with SBBC or MBBC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database or Comprehensive Breast Health Center (CBHC) Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai were retrospectively reviewed and included. Clinicopathologic features, molecular subtype status concordance, and prognosis were compared in patients with SBBC and MBBC. Other prognostic factors for breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) were also identified for bilateral breast cancer patients.

Results

Totally, 3395 and 115 patients were included from the SEER and Ruijin CBHC cohorts. Molecular subtype concordance rate was higher in the SBBC group compared to MBBC in both SEER cohort (75.8% vs 57.7%, p < 0.001) and Ruijin CBHC cohort (76.2% vs 45.2%, p = 0.002). Survival analyses indicated that SBBC was related to worse BCSS than MBBC (p = 0.015). Molecular subtype discordance was related to worse BCSS (hazard ratio (HR), 1.64, 95% confidential interval (CI), 1.18–2.27, p = 0.003) and OS (HR, 1.59, 95% CI, 1.24–2.04, p < 0.001) in the SBBC group, but not for the MBBC group (p = 0.650 for BCSS, p = 0.669 for OS).

Conclusions

Molecular subtype concordance rate was higher in the SBBC group than MBBC group. Patients with discordant molecular subtype was associated with worse disease outcome in the SBBC patients, but not in MBBC, which deserves further clinical evaluation.

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SBBC was associated with higher concordance rates of ER, PR, HER2, and molecular subtype status compared to MBBC.

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SBBC had worse BCSS than MBBC.

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Molecular subtype discordance was independently related to worse prognosis in SBBC but has no impact on prognosis of MBBC.

Worse characteristics can predict survival effectively in bilateral primary breast cancer: A competing risk nomogram using the SEER database

Objective

There is limited information from population‐based cancer registries regarding prognostic features of bilateral primary breast cancer (BPBC).

Methods

Female patients diagnosed with BPBC between 2004 and 2014 were randomly divided into training (n = 7740) and validation (n = 2579) cohorts from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database. We proposed five various models. Multivariate Cox hazard regression and competing risk analysis were to explore prognosis factors in training cohort. Competing risk nomograms were constructed to combine significant prognostic factors to predict the 3‐year and the 5‐year survival of patients with BPBC. At last, in the validation cohort, the new score performance was evaluated with respect to the area under curve, concordance index, net reclassification index and calibration curve.

Results

We found out that age, interval time, lymph nodes invasion, tumor size, tumor grade and estrogen receptor status were independent prognostic factors in both multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis and competing risk analysis. Concordance index in the model of the worse characteristics was 0.816 (95% CI: 0.791‐0.840), of the bilateral tumors was 0.819 (95% CI: 0.793‐0.844), of the worse tumor was 0.807 (0.782‐0.832), of the first tumor was 0.744 (0.728‐0.763) and of the second tumor was 0.778 (0.762‐0.794). Net reclassification index of the 3‐year and the 5‐year between them was 2.7% and −1.0%. The calibration curves showed high concordance between the nomogram prediction and actual observation.

Conclusion

The prognosis of BPBC depended on bilateral tumors. The competing risk nomogram of the model of the worse characteristics may help clinicians predict survival simply and effectively. Metachronous bilateral breast cancer presented poorer survival than synchronous bilateral breast cancer.

Comparative Analysis of Outcomes and Clinicopathological Characteristics of Synchronous and Metachronous Contralateral Breast Cancer: A Study of the SEER Database

Purpose

Numerous previous studies have reported inconsistent results about the differences between synchronous contralateral breast cancer (sCBC) and metachronous contralateral breast cancer (mCBC). This study aimed to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes between sCBC and mCBC and determine predictive factors for the survival of sCBC and mCBC patients.

Methods

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database, we identified sCBC or mCBC patients from 2000 to 2010. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to analyze overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) rates of sCBCs and mCBCs, respectively.

Results

Overall, 14,057 sCBC (n = 8,139, 57.9%) and mCBC (n = 5,918, 42.1%) patients were included. The first tumors of sCBC were more likely to have higher stage and more lymph and distant metastases, whereas those of mCBC were more often infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC), had localized stage, were estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) negative, and had less axillary nodal involvement. The second tumors of mCBC tended to be IDC and have higher grade, adverse stage, ER and PR-negativity; and more axillary nodal involvement, compared to the second tumors of sCBC. mCBC patients had significantly favorable 5-year BCSS but worse long-term BCSS compared with sCBC patients. Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed no significant difference of BCSS between sCBC and mCBC among patients aged 18-60 years. Multivariate analysis indicated that age, grade, and stage of 2 tumors; surgery for second tumor; and ER status of the second tumor were independent prognostic factors for BCSS of contralateral breast cancer (CBC).

Conclusion

The characteristics and outcomes of sCBCs and mCBCs were substantially different. sCBC and mCBC patients may have different prognosis, and the prognosis of CBC depends on the first and second tumors.

Risk factors for metachronous contralateral breast cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The risk of developing metachronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) is a recurrent topic at the outpatient clinic. We aimed to provide CBC risk estimates of published patient, pathological, and primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment-related factors.

METHODS

PubMed was searched for publications on factors associated with CBC risk. Meta-analyses were performed with grouping of studies by mutation status (i.e., BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 c.1100delC), familial cohorts, and general population-based cohorts.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight papers satisfied our inclusion criteria. Strong associations with CBC were found for carrying a BRCA1 (RR = 3.7; 95%CI:2.8-4.9), BRCA2 (RR = 2.8; 95%CI:1.8-4.3) or CHEK2 c.1100delC (RR = 2.7; 95%CI:2.0-3.7) mutation. In population-based cohorts, PBC family history (RR = 1.8; 95%CI:1.2-2.6), body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m² (RR = 1.5; 95%CI:1.3-1.9), lobular PBC (RR = 1.4; 95%CI:1.1-1.8), estrogen receptor-negative PBC (RR = 1.5; 95%CI:1.0-2.3) and treatment with radiotherapy <40 years (RR = 1.4; 95%CI:1.1-1.7) was associated with increased CBC risk. Older age at PBC diagnosis (RR per decade = 0.93; 95%CI:0.88-0.98), and treatment with chemotherapy (RR = 0.7; 95%CI:0.6-0.8) or endocrine therapy (RR = 0.6; 95%CI:0.5-0.7) were associated with decreased CBC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Mutation status, family history, and PBC treatment are key factors for CBC risk. Age at PBC diagnosis, BMI, lobular histology and hormone receptor status have weaker associations and should be considered in combination with key factors to accurately predict CBC risk.

Mortality after contralateral breast cancer in Denmark

PURPOSE

How a second breast cancer diagnosis affects survival in comparison with unilateral breast cancer (UBC) is unclear. Prognostic factors for contralateral breast cancer (CBC) are also not well established. We aimed to investigate the survival pattern after CBC with particular focus on time between first and second breast cancer diagnosis and age at CBC diagnosis.

METHODS

Within the nationwide Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group database, we identified 68,466 breast cancer patients diagnosed during 1978-2012. Patients who subsequently developed CBC were identified in a previously established database (N = 3004). Patients were followed for breast cancer-specific death in the Danish Register of Causes of Death until 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Cumulative breast cancer mortality from date of CBC was estimated using the Aalen-Johansen method.

RESULTS

Compared with UBC patients, the rate of dying from breast cancer was more than twofold higher following a CBC diagnosis, after adjustment for age, period, tumor characteristics, and treatment of the first breast cancer (HR 2.48; 95% CI 2.31-2.66). Short time interval (< 5 years) was associated with higher breast cancer-specific mortality after CBC among patients < 70 years at CBC diagnosis compared with longer time intervals, but not among patients ≥ 70 years at CBC diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer-specific mortality rates were markedly higher after compared with before a CBC diagnosis. We found higher breast cancer-specific mortality after CBC associated with a short interval between diagnoses among patients diagnosed with CBC before age 70 years.

Utility of Regular Radiological Follow-up on Early Detection of Contralateral Malignancy and Long-term Outcomes in Metachronous Bilateral Breast Cancer Patients

Objectives We investigated the utility of regular radiological follow-up on the early detection of contralateral breast cancer(CBC) and prognosis in patients with metachronous bilateral breast cancer. Methods Between 1983 and 2010, 49(2.1%) metachronous bilateral breast cancer patients were identified among a total of 2,343 cases of invasive or in situ breast carcinomas. We reviewed the patients' medical records including age, stage, duration between the first and second breast cancer diagnosis, operation method, recurrence, and breast cancer-specific survival. Results The mean ages at the first and second breast cancer diagnosis were 43.8 and 49.2 years, respectively. The mean duration between the first and second breast cancer diagnosis was 68.9 months (range, 7–266 months). Regular radiological follow-up with annual mammography(MMG) with or without ultrasonography was conducted in 28 patients (63.6%, Group 1), and no regular follow-up was performed in 12 patients (27.3%, Group 2). The median follow-up duration was 150 months. In a comparative analysis, Group 1 patients exhibited more stage 0 and stage 1 malignancies (82.1% vs. 25%, P =0.006) as second cancer and the same or an improved stage (71.4% vs. 33.3%, P =0.042) of second cancer compared to Group 2 patients. Breast cancer-specific survival rates between the two groups after the first cancer occurrence were higher in Group 1 patients compared to Group 2 patients, although this did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion Screening for CBC with regular radiological follow-up could result in early detection of CBC, less invasive surgical procedures, and enhanced breast cancer-specific survival outcomes.

Prognostic Factors for Metachronous Contralateral Breast Cancer: Implications for Management of the Contralateral Breast

The absolute number of breast cancer survivors who are at risk for metachronous contralateral breast cancer (mCBC) has dramatically increased. The objectives of this study were to identify factors predictive of survival for patients with mCBC and to determine clinicopathological factors predictive of advanced mCBC. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data base, we identified women, ages 18-80, diagnosed with invasive breast cancer from 1992 to 2010. We excluded patients with bilateral and stage IV primary breast cancer. Patients who developed mCBC ≥12 months from initial diagnosis were identified. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to determine survival of patients with mCBC. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to determine factors associated with advanced mCBC. We identified 6,673 patients who developed mCBC during our study period. The median interval between initial breast cancer and mCBC was 5 years. The strongest predictor of overall survival was the nodal status of the mCBC. Other significant prognostic factors included patient age; race; size, nodal status, estrogen receptor status, grade, and type of surgery of the initial breast cancer; grade of the mCBC; and use of radiation therapy for the mCBC. Overall, 25% of mCBCs were node positive. Younger age, black race, and characteristics of the initial breast cancer (increased size, invasive lobular histology, mastectomy treatment, and node-positivity) were significantly associated with node-positive mCBC (all p < 0.0.05). The most powerful predictor of survival for patients with mCBC is the nodal status of mCBC. Patients with advanced initial breast cancers are more likely to develop node-positive mCBC. Adherence to current surveillance and adjuvant therapy guidelines may minimize the risk and mortality of mCBCs.

Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy: current perspectives

There has been an increasing trend in the use of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) in the United States among women diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer, particularly young women. Approximately one-third of women <40 years old are undergoing CPM in the US. Most studies have shown that the CPM trend is mainly patient-driven, which reflects a changing environment for newly diagnosed breast cancer patients. The most common reason that women choose CPM is based on misperceptions about CPM’s effect on survival and overestimation of their contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. No prospective studies have shown survival benefit to CPM, and the CBC rate for most women is low at 10 years. Fear of recurrence is also a big driver of CPM decisions. Nonetheless, studies have shown that women are mostly satisfied with undergoing CPM, but complications and subsequent surgeries with reconstruction have been associated with dissatisfaction with CPM. Studies on surgeon’s perspectives on CPM are sparse but show that the most common reasons surgeons discuss CPM with patients is because of a suspicious family history or for a patient who is a confirmed BRCA mutation carrier. Studies on the cost–effectiveness of CPM have been conflicting and are highly dependent on patient’s quality of life after CPM. Most recent guidelines for CPM are contradictory. Future areas of research include the development of interventions to better inform patients about CPM, modification of the guidelines to form a more consistent statement, longer term studies on CBC risk and CPM’s effect on survival, and prospective studies that track the psychosocial effects of CPM on body image and sexuality.

Progression of breast cancer following locoregional ipsilateral recurrence: importance of interval time

Background:

Studies comparing prognosis of breast cancer (BC) patients with and without locoregional recurrence (LR) present conflicting results. We aimed to improve our understanding of the impact of LR on prognosis by examining a large cohort of patients treated at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust.

Methods:

Risk factors associated with BC-specific death were investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression in 5199 women diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. Breast cancer-specific death following LR was assessed with Poisson regression.

Results:

Overall, 552 women (11%) developed LR, with a median follow-up time of 4.28 years. Known factors associated with BC-specific death (tumour stage, grade, and nodal status) were of significance in our data. Women with a shorter disease-free interval had a worse prognosis. For instance, the HR for BC-specific death among women undergoing mastectomy with an LR 0.5–1 year after diagnosis of their primary tumour was 6.67 (95% CI: 3.71–11.99), when compared with women who did not experience LR.

Conclusions:

It often remains difficult to distinguish between a genuine LR and a new primary. The HRs for risk of BC-specific death following a second lesion suggest that they may act as a marker of systemic disease, large tumour burden, or depleted host defence. The clinically highly relevant impairment in prognosis calls for further research into the underlying mechanisms. We showed that for at least 15 years of follow-up, the prognosis in women following the occurrence of an LR may benefit from careful diagnostic and therapeutic management.

Clinicopathologic features and time interval analysis of contralateral breast cancers

INTRODUCTION

We hypothesized that most contralateral breast cancers (CBCs) develop ≥5 years after the primary breast cancer (PBC) and that CBCs have more favorable tumor characteristics.

METHODS

This is a single-institution retrospective review of 323 patients who were diagnosed with CBC from 1990 to 2014. CBCs were diagnosed at least 1 year after the diagnosis of PBC. Χ(2) tests and one-way analysis of variance were used to examine the time interval and pathologic features between the PBC and CBC.

RESULTS

The median time interval between the PBC and CBC was 6.2 years (average: 7.1, range: 1.01-23.0), and 189 (58.5%) patients had a time interval ≥5 years. Patients ≥70 years old developed a CBC sooner than patients <50 years (median: 4.3 vs 6.6 years, P < .001). Patients with infiltrating lobular carcinoma developed their CBC in 9.0 years versus 6.2 years for infiltrating ductal carcinoma histology (P = .028). In comparison with the PBC, a greater proportion of CBCs were stage I (50.8%), T1 (72.1%), node negative (67.5%), and estrogen receptor positive (68.7%). Of the 252 patients with available tumor size information for both cancers, only 54 (21.4%) patients developed a CBC that was >1 cm larger than their PBC, and only 25 (9.9%) patients developed a CBC that was >2 cm larger than their PBC. Only 28 of 201 (13.9%) node-negative PBCs developed a node-positive CBC.

CONCLUSION

A majority of CBCs develop ≥5 years after the diagnosis of the PBC. CBCs have more favorable tumor characteristics than the PBC and tend to be smaller and node negative.

Survival after locoregional recurrence or second primary breast cancer: impact of the disease-free interval

The association between the disease-free interval (DFI) and survival after a locoregional recurrence (LRR) or second primary (SP) breast cancer remains uncertain. The objective of this study is to clarify this association to obtain more information on expected prognosis. Women first diagnosed with early breast cancer between 2003–2006 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. LRRs and SP tumours within five years of first diagnosis were examined. The five-year period was subsequently divided into three equal intervals. Prognostic significance of the DFI on survival after a LRR or SP tumour was determined using Kaplan-Meier estimates and multivariable Cox regression analysis. Follow-up was complete until January 1, 2014. A total of 37,278 women was included in the analysis. LRRs or SP tumours were diagnosed in 890 (2,4%) and 897 (2,4%) respectively. Longer DFI was strongly and independently related to an improved survival after a LRR (long versus short: HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.48–0.88; medium versus short HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.65–1.01). Other factors related to improved survival after LRR were younger age (<70 years) and surgical removal of the recurrence. No significant association was found between DFI and survival after SP tumours. This is the first study to explore the association between the DFI and survival after recurrence in a nationwide population-based cancer registry. The DFI before a LRR is an independent prognostic factor for survival, with a longer DFI predicting better prognosis.

Inferior survival for young patients with contralateral compared to unilateral breast cancer: a nationwide population-based study in the Netherlands

To compare overall survival between women with unilateral breast cancer (UBC) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Women with UBC (N = 182,562; 95 %) and CBC (N = 8,912; 5 %) recorded in the Netherlands Cancer Registry between 1989 and 2008 were included and followed until 2010. We incorporated CBC as a time-dependent covariate to compute the overall mortality rate ratio between women with CBC and UBC. Prognostic factors for overall death were examined according to age at first breast cancer. Women with CBC exhibited a 30 % increase in overall mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR), 95 % Confidence Interval: 1.3, 1.3-1.4) compared with UBC, decreasing with rising age at diagnosis of first breast cancer (<50 years: 2.3, 2.2-2.5 vs. ≥70 years: 1.1, 1.0-1.1). Women older than 50 years at CBC diagnosis and diagnosed 2-5 years after their first breast cancer exhibited a 20 % higher death risk (1.2, 1.0-1.3) compared to those diagnosed within the first 2 years. In women younger than 50 years, the HR was significantly lower if the CBC was diagnosed >5 years after the first breast cancer (0.7, 0.5-0.9). The prognosis for women with CBC significantly improved over time (2004-2008: 0.6, 0.5-0.7 vs. 1989-1993). Women with CBC had a lower survival compared to women with UBC, especially those younger than 50 years at first breast cancer diagnosis. A tailored follow-up strategy beyond current recommendations is needed for these patients who, because of their age and absence of known familial risk, are currently not invited for population-based screening.

A population perspective to mitigating risk for second primary breast cancer

SUMMARY There are more than 2 million breast cancer survivors in the USA. Approximately 5–10% of survivors will develop a second, metachronous breast cancer within 10 years’ time; a risk two- to six-times higher than that in the general population. Women who develop metachronous cancer are more likely to die from the disease compared with women with unilateral cancer. Risk factors for metachronous cancer include BRCA mutation status, young age, family history and tumor phenotype, while adjuvant chemotherapy and endocrine therapy may attenuate the risk. Surveillance guidelines recommend annual mammography, but MRI is not currently indicated for most women. An increasing number of women are choosing prophylactic contralateral mastectomy, although it is not likely to be beneficial for most women. Improved strategies are needed for identifying survivors at an increased risk in order to help guide clinical decisions regarding follow-up care. This review presents an overview of the burden and risk factors for metachronous breast cancer and discusses challenges and opportunities for a population approach to mitigating risk and adverse outcomes from these cancers.

Radiation therapy following surgery for localized breast cancer: outcome prediction by classical prognostic factors and approximated genetic subtypes

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome prediction power of classical prognostic factors along with surrogate approximation of genetic signatures (AGS) subtypes in patients affected by localized breast cancer (BC) and treated with postoperative radiotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed 468 consecutive female patients affected by localized BC with complete immunohistochemical and pathological information available. All patients underwent surgery plus radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 59 months (range, 6-132) from the diagnosis. Disease recurrences (DR), local and/or distant, and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) were registered and analyzed in relation to subtypes (luminal A, luminal B, HER-2, and basal), and classical prognostic factors (PFs), namely age, nodal status (N), tumor classification (T), grading (G), estrogen receptors (ER), progesterone receptors and erb-B2 status. Bootstrap technique for variable selection and bootstrap resampling to test selection stability were used. Regarding AGS subtypes, HER-2 and basal were more likely to recur than luminal A and B subtypes, while patients in the basal group were more likely to have CBC. However, considering PFs along with AGS subtypes, the optimal multivariable predictive model for DR consisted of age, T, N, G and ER. A single-variable model including basal subtype resulted again as the optimal predictive model for CBC. In patients bearing localized BC the combination of classical clinical variables age, T, N, G and ER was still confirmed to be the best predictor of DR, while the basal subtype was demonstrated to be significantly and exclusively correlated with CBC.

The risk of contralateral breast cancer in patients from BRCA1/2 negative high risk families as compared to patients from BRCA1 or BRCA2 positive families: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction

While it has been reported that the risk of contralateral breast cancer in patients from BRCA1 or BRCA2 positive families is elevated, little is known about contralateral breast cancer risk in patients from high risk families that tested negative for BRCA1/2 mutations.

Methods

A retrospective, multicenter cohort study was performed from 1996 to 2011 and comprised 6,235 women with unilateral breast cancer from 6,230 high risk families that had tested positive for BRCA1 (n = 1,154) or BRCA2 (n = 575) mutations or tested negative (n = 4,501). Cumulative contralateral breast cancer risks were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method and were compared between groups using the log-rank test. Cox regression analysis was applied to assess the impact of the age at first breast cancer and the familial history stratified by mutation status.

Results

The cumulative risk of contralateral breast cancer 25 years after first breast cancer was 44.1% (95%CI, 37.6% to 50.6%) for patients from BRCA1 positive families, 33.5% (95%CI, 22.4% to 44.7%) for patients from BRCA2 positive families and 17.2% (95%CI, 14.5% to 19.9%) for patients from families that tested negative for BRCA1/2 mutations. Younger age at first breast cancer was associated with a higher risk of contralateral breast cancer. For women who had their first breast cancer before the age of 40 years, the cumulative risk of contralateral breast cancer after 25 years was 55.1% for BRCA1, 38.4% for BRCA2, and 28.4% for patients from BRCA1/2 negative families. If the first breast cancer was diagnosed at the age of 50 or later, 25-year cumulative risks were 21.6% for BRCA1, 15.5% for BRCA2, and 12.9% for BRCA1/2 negative families.

Conclusions

Contralateral breast cancer risk in patients from high risk families that tested negative for BRCA1/2 mutations is similar to the risk in patients with sporadic breast cancer. Thus, the mutation status should guide decision making for contralateral mastectomy.

Tumor Stage Affects Risk and Prognosis of Contralateral Breast Cancer: Results From a Large Swedish-Population–Based Study

Purpose

The number of breast cancer survivors at risk of developing contralateral breast cancer (CBC) is increasing. However, ambiguity remains regarding risk factors and prognosis for women with CBC.

Patients and Methods

In a cohort of 42,670 women with breast cancer in the Uppsala/Örebro and Stockholm regions in Sweden in 1992 to 2008, we assessed risk factors for and prognosis of metachronous CBC by using survival analysis. Breast cancer–specific survival for women with CBC was evaluated and compared with results for women with unilateral breast cancer (UBC) by using time-dependent Cox-regression modeling.

Results

An increased risk for CBC was observed among women who had primary breast cancer with ≥ 10 involved lymph nodes compared with node-negative women (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.7). The prognosis was poorer in women with CBC than with UBC. The hazard of dying from breast cancer was especially high for women with a short interval time to CBC (adjusted HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.8 to 2.8 for CBC diagnosed ≤ 5 years v UBC) and gradually decreased with longer follow-up time but remained higher than the hazard originating from the primary tumor for ≥ 10 years.

Conclusion

Women with advanced-stage primary breast cancer had an increased risk of developing CBC. CBC is associated with an increased risk of dying from breast cancer throughout a long period of follow-up after the primary tumor. Our findings suggest that the event of CBC marks a new clinical situation in terms of investigations for metastases, treatment considerations, and follow-up strategy.

Patterns of metastasis in women with metachronous contralateral breast cancer

Background:

The understanding of metastatic patterns after metachronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) may help determine the biological nature of CBC.

Methods:

A cohort of 8478 women with breast cancer treated at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust between 1975 and 2006 were studied. Organ-specific 5-year cumulative incidence and incidence rate ratios were assessed for women diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer (UBC), CBC within 5 years and CBC more than 5 years of the initial diagnosis.

Results:

Women diagnosed with CBC within 5 years had a higher incidence of metastases in all organs compared with UBC. Women with a short interval time to CBC developed metastasis more rapidly and were more likely to develop visceral and distant cutaneous metastases compared with bone metastasis.

Conclusion:

These findings explain poor prognosis of women with early occurring CBC and suggest that some of these CBCs are indicators of aggressive and/or systemic disease.