Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040: estimates from an epidemiological model

How the European Union legislations are tackling the burden of diabetes mellitus: A legal surveillance study

Introduction

Surveillance of the European Union's (EU) legislations on the prevention of diabetes mellitus (DM) is needed, to more effectively tackle the rising prevalence of DM.

Methods

This legal surveillance was carried out through a systematic search and screening, using EUR-Lex database to identify treaties, acts, and other legal documents for prevention of DM, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity, followed by their content analysis and assessment according to DM specific guidelines, target population and functional categories.

Results and discussion

We found 22 legislations aimed at preventing DM, NCDs and obesity, but only 5 out of them specifically addressed preventing DM. The aims of legislations covered a broad spectrum of themes indicated by DM specific guidelines, mostly initiatives of life-course approach in preventing DM, NCDs and obesity from the area of energy intake. The target group of most legislations was the general population; high-risk subgroups such as pregnant women were hardly ever the primary target group. Our results prove that the EU has made cross-sectoral legislative efforts to reduce the disease burden and prevent DM but does not exhaust all possibilities. However, given its persistently rising DM prevalence, it is imperative to make sure that DM is a top health priority for various EU authorities and is incorporated into new initiatives, policies and laws.

Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes—A comparative analysis of chronic disease projection methods

Background

Accurate projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases are necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning in response to changes in disease burden.

Aim

To introduce and compare different projection methods to estimate the number of people with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany in 2040.

Methods

We compare three methods to project the number of males with T2D in Germany in 2040. Method 1) simply combines the sex- and age-specific prevalence of T2D in 2010 with future population distributions projected by the German Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Methods 2) and 3) additionally account for the incidence of T2D and mortality rates using partial differential equations (PDEs). Method 2) models the prevalence of T2D employing a scalar PDE which incorporates incidence and mortality rates. Subsequently, the estimated prevalence is applied to the population projection of the FSO. Method 3) uses a two-dimensional system of PDEs and estimates future case numbers directly while future mortality of people with and without T2D is modelled independently from the projection of the FSO.

Results

Method 1) projects 3.6 million male people with diagnosed T2D in Germany in 2040. Compared to 2.8 million males in 2010, this equals an increase by 29%. Methods 2) and 3) project 5.9 million (+104% compared to 2010) and 6.0 million (+116%) male T2D patients, respectively.

Conclusions

The results of the three methods differ substantially. It appears that ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality may result in misleading projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases. Hence, it is essential to include these rates as is done by method 2) and 3).

Healing, surviving, or dying? - projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model

BACKGROUND

In view of the upcoming demographic transition, there is still no clear evidence on how increasing life expectancy will affect future disease burden, especially regarding specific diseases. In our study, we project the future development of Germany's ten most common non-infectious diseases (arthrosis, coronary heart disease, pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia, depression, diabetes, dorsal pain and heart failure) in a Markov illness-death model with recovery until 2060.

METHODS

The disease-specific input data stem from a consistent data set of a major sickness fund covering about four million people, the demographic components from official population statistics. Using six different scenarios concerning an expansion and a compression of morbidity as well as increasing recovery and effective prevention, we can show the possible future range of disease burden and, by disentangling the effects, reveal the significant differences between the various diseases in interaction with the demographic components.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that, although strongly age-related diseases like dementia or heart failure show the highest relative increase rates, diseases of the musculoskeletal system, such as dorsal pain and arthrosis, still will be responsible for the majority of the German population's future disease burden in 2060, with about 25-27 and 13-15 million patients, respectively. Most importantly, for almost all considered diseases a significant increase in burden of disease can be expected even in case of a compression of morbidity.

CONCLUSION

A massive case-load is emerging on the German health care system, which can only be alleviated by more effective prevention. Immediate action by policy makers and health care managers is needed, as otherwise the prevalence of widespread diseases will become unsustainable from a capacity point-of-view.

Employment of Telemedicine in Nursing Homes: Clinical Requirement Analysis, System Development and First Test Results

Purpose

Demographic change and lack of specialized workforces are challenging. Likewise, home visits by general practitioners (GPs) become rarer. If a nursing home resident develops acute symptoms, nurses are often inclined to call the rescue service. Besides patient-related consequences, this might lead to unnecessary hospitalization and far-reaching health economic costs. Due to legal restrictions of remote treatment in Germany, which were recently loosened, telemedicine is still in the early stages. The aim of this study was to employ a holistic telemedical system for nursing homes which facilitates the connection to a GP and thus avoids unnecessary hospitalizations in the case of ambulatory-sensitive illnesses.

Materials and Methods

After an inter-professional requirement analysis, the iterative development was started. In addition to an audio-video connection, several point of care measurements were integrated. Finally, first field tests were performed in a nursing home in a rural area in Germany.

Results

One nursing home was equipped with telemedical system based on the results of the requirement analysis and tele-medically connected to a GP. Over a period of seven months, 56 routine and emergency teleconsultations took place. Only one of those required a hospital admission. In addition to video telephony, electrocardiography and assessment of vitals such as pulse, blood pressure, oxygen saturation and auscultation of heart and lungs were applied frequently.

Conclusion

A telemedical system including integrated medical devices was successfully developed and has turned out to be helpful and even necessary for careful and reliable decision-making by the GP. First test results show high acceptance for elderly care. Involved patients, nurses, and the GP itemize various specific benefits, including economic, personal, and altruistic issues. Another issue that the current COVID-19 crisis brought to light is lowering the risk of contagion; GPs can replace their home visits by using telepresence combined with point of care measures.

Projected number of people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040

AIMS

To project the number of people with Type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2015 and 2040.

METHODS

Based on data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance, we projected the age-specific prevalence of diabetes using mathematical relations between prevalence, incidence rate and mortality. We compared several scenarios regarding temporal trends in the incidence and mortality rate. The projected age-specific prevalence was applied to the projected age structure of the German population between 2015 and 2040 to calculate the number of people with Type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

Application of current age-specific prevalence estimates to the projected age structure in 2040, although ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality, yielded an increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases from 6.9 million in 2015 to 8.3 million (+21%) in 2040. More realistic scenarios that account for decreasing mortality rates and different trends in the incidence rates project between 10.7 million (+54%) and 12.3 million (+77%) Type 2 diabetes cases in 2040.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, we projected the number of future Type 2 diabetes cases for the whole adult population in Germany. The results indicate a relative increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases of between 54% and 77% from 2015 to 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence rate are the main drivers of this increase. Simply applying current age-specific prevalence to the future age structure probably underestimates the future number of Type 2 diabetes cases.

Secondary data in diabetes surveillance - co-operation projects and definition of references on the documented prevalence of diabetes

In addition to the Robert Koch Institute's health surveys, analyses of secondary data are essential to successfully developing a regular and comprehensive description of the progression of diabetes as part of the Robert Koch Institute's diabetes surveillance. Mainly, this is due to the large sample size and the fact that secondary data are routinely collected, which allows for highly stratified analyses in short time intervals. The fragmented availability of data means that various sources of secondary data are required in order to provide data for the indicators in the four fields of action for diabetes surveillance. Thus, a milestone in the project was to check the suitability of different data sources for their usability and to carry out analyses. Against this backdrop, co-operation projects were specifically funded in the context of diabetes surveillance. This article presents the results that were achieved in co-operation projects between 2016 and 2018 that focused on a range of topics: from evaluating the usability of secondary data to statistically modelling the development of epidemiological indices. Moreover, based on the data of the around 70 million people covered by statutory health insurance, an initial estimate was calculated for the documented prevalence of type 2 diabetes for the years 2010 and 2011. To comparably integrate these prevalences over the years in diabetes surveillance, a reference definition was established with external expertise.

Projection of Diabetes Prevalence in Korean Adults for the Year 2030 Using Risk Factors Identified from National Data

BACKGROUND

A number of studies have reported future prevalence estimates for diabetes mellitus (DM), but these studies have been limited for the Korean population. The present study aimed to construct a forecasting model that includes risk factors for type 2 DM using individual- and national-level data for Korean adults to produce prevalence estimates for the year 2030.

METHODS

Time series data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and national statistics from 2005 to 2013 were used. The study subjects were 13,908 male and 18,697 female adults aged 30 years or older who were free of liver cirrhosis. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to select significant factors associated with DM prevalence.

RESULTS

The results showed that survey year, age, sex, marital, educational, or occupational status, the presence of obesity or hypertension, smoking status, alcohol consumption, sleep duration, psychological distress or depression, and fertility rate significantly contributed to the 8-year trend in DM prevalence (P<0.05). Based on sex-specific forecasting models that included the above factors, DM prevalence for the year 2030 was predicted to be 29.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.6% to 30.8%) in men and 19.7% (95% CI, 18.2% to 21.2%) in women.

CONCLUSION

The present study projected a two-fold increase in the prevalence of DM in 2030 compared with that for the years 2013 and 2014 in Korean adults. Modifiable factors contributing to this increase in DM prevalence, such as obesity, smoking, and psychological factors, may require attention in order to reduce national and individual costs associated with DM.

Patient Preferences for Attributes of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Medications in Germany and Spain: An Online Discrete-Choice Experiment Survey

INTRODUCTION

Understanding patient preferences for attributes of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) medications may help explain how the attributes differentially affect patient perceptions and behaviors. In this survey, we quantified the relative preferences among patients in Germany and Spain in separate analyses.

METHODS

A stated-preference, discrete-choice experiment (DCE) survey was designed to elicit preferences for T2DM treatment attributes among patients with self-reported T2DM and who reported being prescribed T2DM medication for > 2 years. Patients recruited from an online national consumer panel completed an online survey. The survey presented choices between eight pairs of hypothetical T2DM treatments defined by seven attributes: chance of reaching target hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level; reduced risk of serious heart attack or stroke; frequency of hypoglycemia; risk of gastrointestinal (GI) problems; weight change; mode of administration (oral or injectable); dosing frequency. Data were analyzed using random-parameters logit. Minimum acceptable benefit (MAB) was defined as the minimum increase in the probability of reaching target HbA1c for which respondents would accept less desirable levels of other attributes.

RESULTS

In Germany and Spain, 474 and 401 respondents completed the survey, respectively. DCE analysis showed that risk of GI problems was most important to German respondents. MAB analysis found that respondents would require a 56 percentage point increase in the probability of reaching their HbA1c target to offset a change from 0% to 30% risk of GI problems. For Spanish respondents, mode of administration was the most important attribute. These respondents would require a 59 percentage point increase in the probability of reaching their HbA1c target to offset moving from oral to injectable medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Respondents in Germany and Spain were willing to trade efficacy for improvements in side effects and mode of administration. Given the variety of T2DM medications currently available, the results suggest that careful discussion about patient preferences could help improve patient satisfaction with T2DM treatment.

The cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting lifestyle change for the prevention of diabetes in a Swedish primary care and community based prevention program

BACKGROUND

Policymakers need to know the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D). The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a T2D prevention initiative targeting weight reduction, increased physical activity and healthier diet in persons in pre-diabetic states by comparing a hypothetical intervention versus no intervention in a Swedish setting.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to study the cost-effectiveness of a T2D prevention program based on lifestyle change versus a control group where no prevention was applied. Analyses were done deterministically and probabilistically based on Monte Carlo simulation for six different scenarios defined by sex and age groups (30, 50, 70 years). Cost and quality adjusted life year (QALY) differences between no intervention and intervention and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated and visualized in cost-effectiveness planes (CE planes) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEA curves).

RESULTS

All ICERs were cost-effective and ranged from 3833 €/QALY gained (women, 30 years) to 9215 €/QALY gained (men, 70 years). The CEA curves showed that the probability of the intervention being cost-effective at the threshold value of 50,000 € per QALY gained was very high for all scenarios ranging from 85.0 to 91.1%.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

The prevention or the delay of the onset of T2D is feasible and cost-effective. A small investment in healthy lifestyle with change in physical activity and diet together with weight loss are very likely to be cost-effective.

Projection of prediabetes and diabetes population size in Singapore using a dynamic Markov model

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to forecast the prevalence and number of adult Singapore residents with prediabetes and diabetes in 2035.

METHODS

A dynamic Markov model with nine mutually exclusive states was developed based on the clinical course of diabetes using time-dependent rates and probabilities. A 1-year cycle over a 25-year time horizon from 2010 to 2035 was used in the model. With publicly available data and a chronic disease register, the model forecast annual disease burden by simulating transition of cohorts across different health states using prevalence rates, incidence rates, mortality rates, disease transition, disease detection, and complication rates. An aging index was used in the model in anticipation of population aging to minimize risks of underestimating disease burden.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2035, the number of Singapore residents with prediabetes and diabetes is projected to more than double, from 434 685 to 903 596 and from 373 104 to 823 802, respectively. The prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes will rise steadily from 15.5 % to 24.9 % and from 13.3 % to 22.7 %, respectively. By 2035, a further estimate of 733 174 and 100 250 patients with prediabetes and uncomplicated diabetes, respectively, will remain undiagnosed. The prevalence of detected and undetected complications is forecast to rise from 60.0 % in 2010 to 70.2 % by 2035.

CONCLUSION

By 2035, the prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes among Singapore residents aged 21+ years is expected to be one in four and one in five, respectively. There is an impetus to adopt more aggressive interventions to contain disease progression.

PREVIEW Behavior Modification Intervention Toolbox (PREMIT): A Study Protocol for a Psychological Element of a Multicenter Project

BACKGROUND

Losing excess body weight and preventing weight regain by changing lifestyle is a challenging but promising task to prevent the incidence of type-2 diabetes. To be successful, it is necessary to use evidence-based and theory-driven interventions, which also contribute to the science of behavior modification by providing a deeper understanding of successful intervention components.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a physical activity and dietary behavior modification intervention toolbox (PREMIT) that fulfills current requirements of being theory-driven and evidence-based, comprehensively described and feasible to evaluate. PREMIT is part of an intervention trial, which aims to prevent the onset of type-2 diabetes in pre-diabetics in eight clinical centers across the world by guiding them in changing their physical activity and dietary behavior through a group counseling approach.

METHODS

The program development took five progressive steps, in line with the Public Health Action Cycle: (1) Summing-up the intervention goal(s), target group and the setting, (2) uncovering the generative psychological mechanisms, (3) identifying behavior change techniques and tools, (4) preparing for evaluation and (5) implementing the intervention and assuring quality.

RESULTS

PREMIT is based on a trans-theoretical approach referring to valid behavior modification theories, models and approaches. A major "product" of PREMIT is a matrix, constructed for use by onsite-instructors. The matrix includes objectives, tasks and activities ordered by periods. PREMIT is constructed to help instructors guide participants' behavior change. To ensure high fidelity and adherence of program-implementation across the eight intervention centers standardized operational procedures were defined and "train-the-trainer" workshops were held. In summary PREMIT is a theory-driven, evidence-based program carefully developed to change physical activity and dietary behaviors in pre-diabetic people.

Patient population with multiple myeloma and transitions across different lines of therapy in the USA: an epidemiologic model

PURPOSE

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a progressive, malignant neoplasia with a worldwide, age-standardized annual incidence of 1.5 per 100 000 individuals and 5-year prevalence around 230 000 patients. Main favorable prognostic factors are younger age, low/standard cytogenetic risk, and undergoing stem cell transplantation. Our aim was to estimate the size of the patient population with MM eligible to receive a new MM therapy at different lines of therapy in the USA.

METHODS

We constructed a compartmental, differential equation model representing the flow of MM patients from diagnosis to death, via two possible treatment pathways and distinguished in four groups based on prognostic factors. Parameters were obtained from published references, available statistics, and assumptions. The model was used to estimate number of diagnosed MM patients and number of patient transitions from one line of therapy to the next over 1 year. Model output included 95% credible intervals from probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The base-case estimates were 80 219 patients living with MM, including 70 375 on treatment, 780 symptomatic untreated patients, and 9064 asymptomatic untreated patients. Over a 1-year period, the number of MM patients on treatment line 1 was estimated at 23 629 (credible intervals 22 236-25 029), and the number of transitions from treatment line 1 to treatment line 2 was estimated at 14 423.

CONCLUSIONS

The size of the patient population with MM on different lines of therapy and in patient subgroups of interest estimated from this epidemiologic model can be used to assess the number of patients who could benefit from new MM therapies and their corresponding budgetary impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050

Background

Data on the future diabetes burden in Scandinavia is limited. Our aim was to project the future burden of diabetes in Sweden by modelling data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and demographic factors.

Method

To project the future burden of diabetes we used information on the prevalence of diabetes from the national drug prescription registry (adults ≥20 years), previously published data on relative mortality in people with diabetes, and population demographics and projections from Statistics Sweden. Alternative scenarios were created based on different assumptions regarding the future incidence of diabetes.

Results

Between 2007 and 2013 the prevalence of diabetes rose from 5.8 to 6.8% in Sweden but incidence remained constant at 4.4 per 1000 (2013). With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000. Of this rise, 30% is accounted for by changes in the age structure of the population and 14% by improved relative survival in people with diabetes. A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases. Even with decreasing incidence at 1% per year, prevalence of diabetes will continue to increase.

Conclusion

We can expect diabetes prevalence to rise substantially in Sweden over the next 35 years as a result of demographic changes and improved survival among people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.

Projected effect of increased active travel in German urban regions on the risk of type 2 diabetes

Background

Future transportation policy is likely to reduce emissions in the cities and urban regions by strengthening active travel. Increased walking and cycling are known to have positive effects on health outcomes. This work estimates effects of increased active travel on type 2 diabetes in Germany, where 64% of the population live in urban regions.

Methods

Based on the effect size of an increased active travel scenario reported from a recent meta-analysis, we project the change in the life time risk, the proportion of prevented cases and the change in diabetes free life time in a German birth cohort (born 1985) compared to business as usual.

Results

The absolute risk reduction of developing type 2 diabetes before the age of 80 is 6.4% [95% confidence interval: 3.7-9.7%] for men and 4.7% [2.2-7.7%] for women, respectively. Compared to business as usual, the increased active travel scenario prevents 14.0% [8.1-21.2%] of the future cases of diabetes in men and 15.8% [9.3-23.1%] in women. Diabetes free survival increases by 1.7 [1.0-2.7] years in men and 1.4 [0.6-2.3] in women.

Conclusions

Our projection predicts a substantial impact of increased active travel on the future burden of type 2 diabetes. The most striking effect may be seen in the number of prevented cases. In all urban regions with an increased active travel transport policy, about one out of seven male and one out of six female cases can be prevented.

Nonalcoholic Fatty liver disease and risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease: what is important for primary care physicians?

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is emerging as the most common chronic liver condition in Western World and across the globe. NAFLD prevalence is estimated to be around one-third of the total population. There are no published data that project the future prevalence of NAFLD, but with an increase in epidemic of diabetes and obesity, it is possible to suggest an increase in a number of individuals with NAFLD. NAFLD is associated with insulin resistance and occurs with an increase in cluster of features of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. Therefore, it is important to exclude the possibility of diabetes in those individuals with evidence of fatty liver. The global diabetes epidemic continues to grow, and it is estimated that the number of people with diabetes will double by year 2030. NAFLD is also a risk factor for an increase in cardiovascular incidence independent of age, sex, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, smoking, and cluster of metabolic syndromes. It is expected that NAFLD will be an important challenge for health providers in the near future. Taking all these factors into consideration, we believe that increasing awareness of metabolic and cardiovascular impact of NAFLD among general practitioners and health authorities may decrease the serious consequences of late diagnosis of NAFLD. Importantly, the collaboration between medical specialties is vital in decreasing the impact of the epidemic of NAFLD. The focus of this review is in the role of primary care physician in diagnosis, treatment and prevention of NAFLD and patients education.

Change rates and prevalence of a dichotomous variable: simulations and applications

A common modelling approach in public health and epidemiology divides the population under study into compartments containing persons that share the same status. Here we consider a three-state model with the compartments: A, B and Dead. States A and B may be the states of any dichotomous variable, for example, Healthy and Ill, respectively. The transitions between the states are described by change rates, which depend on calendar time and on age. So far, a rigorous mathematical calculation of the prevalence of property B has been difficult, which has limited the use of the model in epidemiology and public health. We develop a partial differential equation (PDE) that simplifies the use of the three-state model. To demonstrate the validity of the PDE, it is applied to two simulation studies, one about a hypothetical chronic disease and one about dementia in Germany. In two further applications, the PDE may provide insights into smoking behaviour of males in Germany and the knowledge about the ovulatory cycle in Egyptian women.

Is the Chronic Care Model Integrated Into Research Examining Culturally Competent Interventions for Ethnically Diverse Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? A Review

The chronic care model (CCM) concerns both the medical and the cultural and linguistic needs of patients through the inclusion of cultural competence in the delivery system design. This literature review attempted to@@ identify the domains of the CCM culturally competent (CC) interventions that the adults from ethnic minorities suffering from type 2 diabetes mellitus report. We identified the CCM and the CC components in the relevant studies published between 2005 and 2014. Thirty-two studies were included. Thirty-one articles focused on self-management and 20 on community resources. Twenty-three interventions integrated cultural norms from the patients’ backgrounds. CC interventions reported the CCM at the individual level but need to address the organizational level more effectively. The scope of CC interventions should be expanded to transform health care organizations and systems.

The Generation R Study: Biobank update 2015

The Generation R Study is a population-based prospective cohort study from fetal life until adulthood. The study is designed to identify early environmental and genetic causes and causal pathways leading to normal and abnormal growth, development and health from fetal life, childhood and young adulthood. In total, 9,778 mothers were enrolled in the study. Data collection in children and their parents include questionnaires, interviews, detailed physical and ultrasound examinations, behavioural observations, Magnetic Resonance Imaging and biological samples. Efforts have been conducted for collecting biological samples including blood, hair, faeces, nasal swabs, saliva and urine samples and generating genomics data on DNA, RNA and microbiome. In this paper, we give an update of the collection, processing and storage of these biological samples and available measures. Together with detailed phenotype measurements, these biological samples provide a unique resource for epidemiological studies focused on environmental exposures, genetic and genomic determinants and their interactions in relation to growth, health and development from fetal life onwards.

Job strain as a risk factor for the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus: findings from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether job strain is associated with an increased risk of subsequent Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) development in a population-based study of men and women.

METHODS

Data were derived from the prospective MONICA/KORA Augsburg study. We investigated 5337 working participants aged 29 to 66 years without diabetes at one of the three baseline surveys. Job strain was measured by the Karasek job content questionnaire. High job strain was defined by the quadrant approach, where high job demands combined with low job control were classified as high job strain. Continuous job strain (quotient of job demands divided by job control) was additionally analyzed as sensitivity analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for age, sex, survey, socioeconomic and life-style variables, parental history of diabetes, and body mass index.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 291 incident cases of T2DM were observed. The participants with high job strain at baseline had a 45% higher fully adjusted risk to develop T2DM than did those with low job strain (HR = 1.45 [95% confidence interval = 1.00-2.10], p = .048). On the continuous scale, more severe job strain in the magnitude of 1 standard deviation corresponded to a 12% increased fully adjusted T2DM risk (HR = 1.12 [95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.25], p = .045).

CONCLUSIONS

Men and women who experience high job strain are at higher risk for developing T2DM independently of traditional risk factors. Preventive strategies to combat the globally increasing T2DM epidemic should take into consideration the adverse effects of high strain in the work environment.

Real-life effectiveness and tolerability of vildagliptin and other oral glucose-lowering therapies in patients with type 2 diabetes in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Metformin is an established first-line treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but treatment intensification with other oral antidiabetes drugs (OADs) is usually required over time. Effectiveness of diabetes control with vildagliptin and vildagliptin/metformin was a 1-year, large observational study of 45,868 patients with T2DM across 27 countries which assessed effectiveness and safety of vildagliptin as add-on therapy to other OADs versus other comparator OAD combinations. Here, we present the data from Germany.

METHODS

Patients inadequately controlled with monotherapy were eligible only after the add-on treatment was finalized. Patients were assigned to either vildagliptin or comparator OADs [sulfonylureas, thiazolidinediones, glinides, α-glucosidase inhibitors or metformin, excluding dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors or glucagon-like peptide-1 mimetic/analogues]. The primary efficacy endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving a glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction of >0.3% without peripheral edema, hypoglycemia, discontinuation due to a gastrointestinal event or weight gain ≥5%. One secondary efficacy endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving HbA1c <7% without hypoglycemia and weight gain. Change in HbA1c from baseline to study endpoint and safety were assessed.

RESULTS

Of 8,887 patients enrolled in Germany, 6,679 received vildagliptin and 1,695 received other OADs. The mean ± SD baseline age, HbA1c, and T2DM duration were 62.8 ± 11.0 years, 7.7 ± 1.2%, and 5.8 ± 4.9 years, respectively. The proportion of patients achieving the primary (34.5% vs. 30.5%, p < 0.01) and secondary (25.4% vs. 21.7%, p = 0.01) endpoints was higher with vildagliptin than comparator OADs. Vildagliptin showed a numerically greater reduction in HbA1c (0.7%) from baseline vs. comparator OADs (0.6%). The overall incidence of adverse events was similar.

CONCLUSION

In real life, treatment with vildagliptin is associated with a higher proportion of patients reaching target HbA1c without hypoglycemia and weight gain compared with other OADs in Germany.

Validation of a population coronary disease predictive system: the CASSANDRA model

BACKGROUND

The use of validated multivariate cardiovascular predictive models in a population setting is of interest for public health policy makers. We aimed to validate the estimations of the CASSANDRA model (coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and CHD risk distribution), considering the population changes in age, sex and CHD risk factors prevalence in a 10-year period.

METHODS

We compared the projected CHD incidence estimated with CASSANDRA with that observed in the Girona Heart Registry (REGICOR) for 1995-2004 and 2000-2009 in the population of Girona (Spain) aged 35-74 years. We used official age and sex distributions for this population. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors prevalence and the distribution of cardiovascular risk were obtained from three cross-sectional studies performed in 1995, 2000 and 2005. To validate the future distribution of cardiovascular risk, we tested the yearly CHD risk variance over the study period.

RESULTS

No significant differences between the estimated and observed annual CHD incidence per 100 000 men were found in 1995-2004 (CASSANDRA=457.8 and REGICOR=420.3, incidence rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI)=0.92 (0.89 to 0.96)) and in 2000-2009 (441.4 and 409.6, respectively, IRR=0.93 (0.90 to 0.96)). However, overpredictions of 18% and 22%, respectively, were observed in women (198.8 and 160.4, IRR=0.82 (0.77 to 0.86), and 197.1 and 152.8, IRR=0.78 (0.74 to 0.83), respectively). No significant differences were found in the CHD risk variance in the three different cross-sectional studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The CASSANDRA model produces valid estimates, particularly in men, of the future burden of disease and in the distribution of cardiovascular risk in individuals aged 35-74 years.

[Prevalence and temporal trend of known diabetes mellitus: results of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS1)]

The first wave of the "German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults" (DEGS1, 2008-2011) allows for up-to-date, representative prevalence estimates of known diabetes amongst the 18- to 79-year-old resident population of Germany. Temporal trends can be shown by comparing the survey findings with those of the "German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998" (GNHIES98). The definition of known diabetes was based on self-reports in physician-administered interviews that asked respondents if they had ever been diagnosed with diabetes by a doctor or were on anti-diabetic medication. Overall, diabetes had been diagnosed in 7.2 % of the adults (7.4 % of the women; 7.0 % of the men). The prevalence increased substantially with advancing age and was higher in persons of low than of high socioeconomic status. Prevalence varied depending on the type of health insurance held and was highest amongst those insured with AOK health insurance funds. In comparison with GNHIES98, there was a 38 % increase in prevalence, of which approximately one third is to be attributed to demographic ageing. In the context of other nationwide studies, the results indicate a figure of at least 4.6 million 18- to 79-year-olds having been diagnosed with diabetes at some point. Planned analyses of undiagnosed diabetes will contribute to the interpretation of the observed increase in the prevalence of known diabetes. An English full-text version of this article is available at SpringerLink as supplemental.

[Ophthalmological aspects of the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS): an interdisciplinary prospective population-based cohort study]

The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS) is a prospective, single center, population-based cohort study. It is an interdisciplinary project for investigation of ocular, cardiovascular, psychosomatic and immune diseases in the population of the City of Mainz and the district of Mainz-Bingen in central Germany. The main goals of the ophthalmological branch of GHS are determination of the prevalence and incidence of major ocular risk factors and diseases, exploring the genetic determinants and assessing complex interdisciplinary associations. The study cohort includes 15,010 participants aged between 35 and 74 years at the time of inclusion. After completing the baseline investigations the 5-year follow-up of the whole study cohort started in April 2012. The GHS is the most extensive data set of major ophthalmological conditions and risk factors in Germany and will help researchers in understanding complex medical associations.

The Rotterdam Study: 2014 objectives and design update

The Rotterdam Study is a prospective cohort study ongoing since 1990 in the city of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The study targets cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, oncological, and respiratory diseases. As of 2008, 14,926 subjects aged 45 years or over comprise the Rotterdam Study cohort. The findings of the Rotterdam Study have been presented in over a 1,000 research articles and reports (see www.erasmus-epidemiology.nl/rotterdamstudy ). This article gives the rationale of the study and its design. It also presents a summary of the major findings and an update of the objectives and methods.

Projection of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040

AIM

To model the future costs of Type 2 diabetes in Germany, taking into account demographic changes, disease dynamics and undiagnosed cases.

METHODS

Using a time-discrete Markov model, the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed/undiagnosed) between 2010 and 2040 was estimated and linked with cost weights. Demographic, epidemiological and economic scenarios were modelled. Inputs to the model included the official population forecasts, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, proportions of undiagnosed cases, health expenditure and cost ratios of an individual with (diagnosed/undiagnosed) diabetes to an individual without diabetes. The outcomes were the case numbers and associated annual direct medical excess costs of Type 2 diabetes from a societal perspective in 2010€.

RESULTS

In the base case, the case numbers of diabetes will grow from 5 million (2.8 million diagnosed) in 2010 to a maximum of 7.9 million (4.6 million diagnosed) in 2037. From 2010 to 2040, the prevalence rate amonf individuals ≥40 years old will increase from 10.5 to 16.3%. The annual costs of diabetes will increase by 79% from €11.8 billion in 2010 to €21.1 billion in 2040 (€9.5 billion to €17.6 billion for diagnosed cases).

CONCLUSIONS

The projected increase in costs will be attributable to demographic changes and disease dynamics, and will be enhanced by higher per capita costs with advancing age. Better epidemiological and economic data regarding diabetes care in Germany would improve the forecasting accuracy. The method used in the present study can anticipate the effects of alternative policy scenarios and can easily be adapted to other chronic diseases.

Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060

AIMS

Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5-12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6-23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable.

CONCLUSION

We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.