Fertility Patterns Among Turkish Women in Turkey and Abroad: The Effects of International Mobility, Migrant Generation, and Family Background

What is driving the global decline of human fertility? Need for a multidisciplinary approach to the underlying mechanisms

An intense period of human population expansion over the past 250 years is about to cease. Total fertility rates are falling dramatically all over the world such that highly industrialized nations, including China and the tiger economies of SE Asia, will see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades. The socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of this change are considerable and invite a multidisciplinary consideration of the underlying mechanisms. In the short-term, socioeconomic factors, particularly urbanization and delayed childbearing are powerful drivers of reduced fertility. In parallel, lifestyle factors such as obesity and the presence of numerous reproductive toxicants in the environment, including air-borne pollutants, nanoplastics and electromagnetic radiation, are seriously compromising reproductive health. In the longer term, it is hypothesized that the reduction in family size that accompanies the demographic transition will decrease selection pressure on high fertility genes leading to a progressive loss of human fecundity. Paradoxically, the uptake of assisted reproductive technologies at scale, may also contribute to such fecundity loss by encouraging the retention of poor fertility genotypes within the population. Since the decline in fertility rate that accompanies the demographic transition appears to be ubiquitous, the public health implications for our species are potentially devastating.

Return Migration and Fertility: French Overseas Emigrants, Returnees, and Nonmigrants at Origin and Destination

Although growing research has emphasized the critical importance of studying returns for understanding various aspects of migration processes, knowledge regarding return migrants' fertility behaviors remains limited. This study addresses this knowledge gap by comparing rates of first births and completed fertility among three groups: nonmigrants (at origin), migrants, and return migrants. Using extensive data collected both in the home regions and at destination, we analyze female migration from Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, and Réunion Island to metropolitan France (European France). We find intermediate fertility behaviors for return migrants relative to nonmigrants and migrants: on average, completed fertility levels are lower among return migrants than nonmigrants but slightly higher among return migrants than migrants. Some of these differences can be attributed to selection into migration and return, although significant gaps persist among women with similar socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings highlight three key observations. First, when migrants return before beginning childbearing, their transition to motherhood closely resembles that of nonmigrants with similar characteristics. Second, the lower fertility rates among prospective return migrants indicate an anticipation of disruption effects. Finally, reduced fertility while residing in metropolitan France translates into lower completed fertility rates for return migrants.

Partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach

We study the interrelationships between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrant women and female descendants of immigrants using the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We propose a novel multistate event history approach to analyse the outcomes of unpartnered, cohabiting, and married women. We find that the partnership and fertility behaviours of immigrants and descendants from European and Western countries are similar to those of native women: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. Those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g. South Asian countries) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean show the weakest link between partnership changes and fertility: some have births outside unions; some form a union and have children thereafter. Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts, although marriage is being postponed in all groups. Our findings on immigrants support the socialization hypothesis, whereas those on descendants are in line with the minority subculture hypothesis.

Introduction: Fertility and Social Inequalities in Migrant Populations: a Look at the Roles of Selection, Context of Reception, and Employment

This paper is the introduction to the Special Issue on “Fertility and social inequalities in migrant populations.” The Special Issue contains twelve empirical papers that deal with both international migrants and internal migrants, both women and men, both older migrant populations spanning several generations as well as recent immigrant groups, such as refugees, and include analyses of both behavior and intentions. The data used comprise macro indicators and individual-level data as well as qualitative material. Regional contexts include classical immigration countries in Europe and Oceania as well as relatively recent destinations. The papers draw on several comparative perspectives—migrants at destination, emigrants and stayers at origin, migrants with different numbers of children upon migration, and different migrant generations—to address three large questions. Six papers explore the role of time and sequencing in migrant fertility, in relation to both period effects and sequencing of births in the life course, as well as the role selection into migration plays in female and male migrants’ fertility behavior. Four papers focus into how regional variation in the receiving contexts shapes fertility behavior, highlighting the role of migrant type, human capital, and social capital. Two papers look at how childbearing is associated with different degrees of economic assimilation, i.e., maternal employment. Overall, this Special Issue demonstrates the large heterogeneity in fertility among migrant and ethnic minority groups. Social inequalities shape fertility differentials, which in turn influence subsequent life courses of migrants and ethnic minority group members. Future research on migrant assimilation should pay more attention to variation in demographic behavior.

Point of Reference: A Multisited Exploration of African Migration and Fertility in France

A considerable literature explores whether the fertility of migrants from high-fertility contexts converges with that of women in lower fertility destinations. Nonetheless, much of this research compares migrants' reproductive outcomes to those of native-born women in destination countries. Drawing on research emphasizing the importance of transnational perspectives, we standardize and integrate data collected in France (the destination) and in six high-fertility African countries (the senders). We show that African migrants in our sample had higher children ever born (CEB) than native French women but lower CEB than women in corresponding origin countries. These findings suggest that socialization into pronatalist norms is an incomplete explanation for migrant fertility in the first generation, an insight that is overlooked when analyzing destination settings only. Next, we conduct multivariate analyses that weight migrants' background characteristics to resemble women in both origin and destination countries. Findings indicate that observed differences between African migrants in France and women in African origin countries help explain differences in CEB between the two groups, which supports selection. We also demonstrate that African migrants in France had delayed transitions into first, second, and third births and lower completed fertility compared to women in origin countries, thus disputing the disruption hypothesis. Finally, we show that observed differences between African migrants in France and native French women explain differences in CEB between the two groups, which supports adaptation. These multifaceted findings on selection, disruption, and adaptation would be obscured by analyzing destination settings only, thus validating a multisited approach to migrant fertility.

Cohort Succession in the Timing of Marriage Among the Children of Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants

In this paper, we introduce cohort succession in the study of marriage behaviour among the children of immigrants. Research among majority populations in developed countries has shown an overall increase in age at first marriage. Yet whether a similar change is occurring across successive cohorts of children of immigrants is unknown but relevant given the growing shares of children of immigrants in developed countries. Using full population register data from the Netherlands, we test the theoretical assumptions of cohort succession with event history models for the timing of first marriage across entire Turkish and Moroccan second-generation birth cohorts. In line with the expectations based on diffusion theories, we find clear evidence that younger birth cohorts postpone marriage. Moreover, the marriage timing of especially the Turkish second generation and Dutch majority population converges across birth cohorts. Our findings call for a more differentiated study of the children of immigrants acknowledging diffusion of new demographic behaviour among these groups.

Childbearing among Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden: an origin-destination country approach

This paper examines the childbearing behaviour of Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden. Also considering stayers in the country of origin, we rely on a country-of-origin and country-of-destination approach in a careful examination regarding the relevance of three hypotheses on migrant fertility: the socialisation, selection, and adaptation hypotheses. We analyse the transitions to first and second births based on a piecewise exponential model, using Swedish register data and the Polish Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) first wave. The results support the socialisation hypothesis, as the Polish stayers and the first-generation Polish migrants have their first child at younger ages and are less likely to remain childless than the other groups but are also more likely to not proceed to a second child, unlike the Swedish natives and the second generation. We find partial support for the selection hypothesis. Descriptively, we observe signs of selection into migration based on education, cohort, and marital status. Additionally, our study shows that the impact of marriage varies between stayers and migrants, in the first-birth transition, suggesting selection into migration when it comes to unobserved characteristics as well. The adaptation hypothesis is also supported, as the fertility behaviour of the second generation more closely resembles that of the Swedish natives than that of the first generation and differs more from that of the Polish stayers in terms of both quantum and timing of the first and second births.

Cohort, Policy, and Process: The Implications for Migrant Fertility in West Germany

Although a growing literature explores the relationship between migration and fertility, far less scholarship has examined how migrant childbearing varies over time, including across migrant cohorts. I extend previous research by exploring migrant-cohort differences in fertility and the role of changing composition by education and type of family migration. Using 1984-2016 German Socio-Economic Panel data, I investigate the transition into first, second, and third birth among foreign-born women in West Germany. Results from an event-history analysis reveal that education and type of family migration-including marriage migration and family reunions-contribute to differences in first birth across migrant cohorts. Specifically, more rapid entry into first birth among recent migrants from Turkey stems from a greater representation of marriage migrants across arrival cohorts, while increasing education is associated with reduced first birth propensities among recent migrants from Southern Europe. I also find variation in the risk of higher parity transitions across migrant cohorts, particularly lower third birth risks among recent arrivals from Turkey, likely a result of changing exposures within origin and destination contexts. These findings suggest that as political and socioeconomic circumstances vary within origin and destination contexts, selection, adaptation, and socialization processes jointly shape childbearing behavior.

Health Care Services Utilization of Persons with Direct, Indirect and without Migration Background in Germany: A Longitudinal Study Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

There is ambiguous evidence with regard to the inequalities in health care services utilization (HCSU) among migrants and non-migrants in Germany. The aim of this study was to analyze the utilization of doctors and hospitalization of persons with direct and indirect migration background as well as those without in Germany. This study was based on data of the German Socio-Economic Panel using the adult sample of the years 2013 to 2019. HCSU was measured by self-reported utilization of doctors and hospitalization. Associations between HCSU and migration background were examined using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression and zero-truncated multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear models. The odds ratios of utilization of doctors and hospitalization for persons with direct migration background compared with persons without migration background were 0.73 (p < 0.001) and 0.79 (p = 0.002), respectively. A direct migration background was associated with a 6% lower number of doctoral visits within three months compared with no migration background (p = 0.023). Persons with direct migration background still have a lower HCSU than persons without migration background in Germany. Access to health care needs to be ensured and health policy-makers are called upon to keep focus on the issue of inequalities in HCSU between migrants and non-migrants in Germany.

Fertility Behavior of Turkish Migrant Men in Europe Compared to Stayers at Origin

This paper addresses the fertility behavior of Turkish men in Europe from a context of origin perspective. Men of the first and subsequent migrant generations are compared with “stayers” from the same regions of origin in Turkey. We pay special attention to the men’s reasons for migration by distinguishing between work and nonwork motivations for migration. We use data from the 2000 Families Study, which was conducted in 2010 and 2011 in Turkey and in western European countries; the sample consists of about 3,500 men. We analyze the transitions to fatherhood as well as to second and third births using event-history analyses; and we investigate the cumulated number of children using Poisson regression analysis. As the men were aged 18–92 at the data collection, we carry out separate models for birth cohort groups. Our findings provide support for the hypothesis of the interrelatedness of events. First-generation migrant men show elevated first birth transitions, which are closely linked to marriage and migration. However, in contrast to the pattern that is often found for women, this effect is observed for labor as well as for nonwork migrants. The rates of transition to a second and a third birth differ less from those of stayers. Analyses of cumulated fertility at age 41 or older further suggest that the migrants’ overall numbers of children are smaller than those of the stayers in Turkey. Thus, our findings indicate that there are dissimilation processes and crossover trends among emigrant men characterized by higher rates of transition to family formation linked to migration but lower overall fertility.

Fertility Differences Between Migrants and Stayers in a Polygamous Context: Evidence from Senegal

This study takes a ‘country-of-origin’ or dissimilation perspective to compare the timing of births and completed fertility of international migrants and of those who stay at origin. In order to disentangle selection effects determining differential fertility behaviour of migrants, other mechanisms explaining migrant fertility (disruption, interrelation of events) are also examined. Furthermore, we take into consideration the prevalence of polygamy in Senegal to enhance our knowledge of migrant fertility in this specific context. For the empirical analysis, we use longitudinal data collected in the framework of the MAFE-Senegal project (Migrations between Africa and Europe), which includes retrospective life histories of non-migrants in Senegal and migrants in France, Italy and Spain. We estimate discrete time hazard models and Poisson regressions for male and female respondents separately to analyse the timing of first and higher-order births as well as completed fertility. The results show a strong disruptive effect of migration on childbearing probabilities for men and women, clearly related to the geographic separation of partners due to the out-migration of the man. Increased birth risks in the first year upon arrival could be observed for migrant women following their husbands to Europe, suggesting an interrelation of migration and fertility events. Regarding completed fertility, migrants have significantly fewer children by the age of 40 compared to their non-migrant counterparts, which among men is largely driven by a strong negative effect of polygamous migrants.

Migrants' Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination

Previous research has analyzed the effect of migration on fertility, and a number of hypotheses have been developed: namely adaptation, socialization, selection, disruption and interrelation of events. Comparison among stayers in the origin countries, migrants and non-migrants in the destination country is essential to gain better understanding of the effects of migration on fertility. However, this joint comparison has been rarely conducted. We sought to fill this gap and analyze migrants' fertility in Italy. By merging different data sources for the first time, we were able to compare our target group of migrant women, respectively, born in Albania, Morocco and Ukraine with both Italian non-migrants and stayers in the country of origin. Considering the first three orders of births, multi-process hazard models were estimated in order to provide a more exhaustive and diversified scenario and to test the existing hypotheses. The results show that there is no single model of fertility for migrants in Italy. In addition, some hypotheses provide a better explanation of the fertility behavior than others do. Among women from Morocco, the socialization hypothesis tends to prevail, whereas Albanians' fertility is mostly explained in terms of adaptation. Disruption emerged as the main mechanism able to explain the fertility of migrants from Ukraine, and a clear interrelation between fertility and migration is apparent for women from Albania and Morocco, but only for the first birth.

Partner Choice and the Transition to Parenthood for Second-Generation Women of Turkish and Moroccan Origin in Belgium

Studies on fertility among second-generation migrant women across Europe have mainly treated the second generation as a rather homogenous group, not linking and distinguishing fertility patterns by type of partner. This study investigates how and to what extent the origin and generation of the partner (endogamous or exogamous as well as diversity in endogamy) of Turkish and Moroccan second-generation women in Belgium is related to first-birth rates. We distinguish three types of partnerships: those in an endogamous union with a first-generation partner, those in an endogamous union with a second-generation partner, and those in an exogenous union where the partner is of native Belgian origin. We use linked Census-Register data for the period 2001-2006. Applying event history models, our findings reveal clear differences between the endogamous and exogamous unions with respect to the timing of first births. Second-generation women of both origin groups have the lowest parenthood rates when the partner is of native Belgian origin. However, no variation is found within endogamous unions. For endogamous unions with a first-generation partner, the parenthood rates are approximately the same (and not higher, as was expected) compared to when the partner is also of second generation.