Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

A short-term issue that has been occasionally investigated in the current literature is if (and, eventually, how) population dynamics (directly or indirectly) driven by COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to enlarge regional divides in specific demographic processes and dimensions. To verify this assumption, our study run an exploratory multivariate analysis of ten indicators representative of different demographic phenomena (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, internal and international migration) and the related population outcomes (natural balance, migration balance, total growth). We developed a descriptive analysis of the statistical distribution of the ten demographic indicators using eight metrics that assess formation (and consolidation) of spatial divides, controlling for shifts over time in both central tendency, dispersion, and distributional shape regimes. All indicators were made available over 20 years (2002-2021) at a relatively detailed spatial scale (107 NUTS-3 provinces) in Italy. COVID-19 pandemic exerted an impact on Italian population because of intrinsic (e.g. a particularly older population age structure compared with other advanced economies) and extrinsic (e.g. the early start of the pandemic spread compared with the neighboring European countries) factors. For such reasons, Italy may represent a sort of 'worst' demographic scenario for other countries affected by COVID-19 and the results of this empirical study can be informative when delineating policy measures (with both economic and social impact) able to mitigate the effect of pandemics on demographic balance and improve the adaptation capacity of local societies to future pandemic's crises.

The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage

Although a great deal of attention is paid to reproductive health during violent conflicts, the literature is sparse on the consequences of conflict for abortion and miscarriage. This research provides an analysis of a recent historical case: the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, using the female questionnaire of the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey to examine a subsample of 1,445 women surveyed who had reached menarche during or after the war and had been pregnant at least once by the time of the survey. The analysis leverages the uneven geographical scope of conflict events during the civil war to pinpoint women's exposure to violence, measured by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The results show that for women who had reached menarche during or after the civil war, exposure to conflict events increases the likelihood of ever experiencing miscarriage, but not abortion. Including a spatial lag operator reveals that there were also spillover effects for abortion, in which women who were in a broader region of uncertainty were more likely to induce an abortion. These findings highlight the role of institutional changes in affecting pregnancy loss during and after civil war.

The spatial diffusion of fertility decline in Egypt (1950–2006)

While the Egyptian fertility transition has been widely addressed in the literature, few researches have studied the spatial dimension of fertility. Using population census data, the aim of this study is to describe and measure the evolution of the geography of fertility on a subnational scale (qism/markaz), focusing on the period between 1960 and 2006. We assumed that the decline in fertility had spread spatially through Egypt, the spatial diffusion occurring through two traditional mechanisms: contagion and hierarchical diffusion. Our results confirm our hypotheses and highlight the importance of studying the spatial diffusion of the fertility transition. This study is unique for the Egyptian context given the long period and fine territorial scale considered. Our study constitutes an important addition to the existing group of studies on the spatial diffusion of fertility. Finally, it contributes to gaining further insight into a demographic dynamic which is fundamental for the future of Egypt.

The Impact of Perceived Flood Exposure on Flood-Risk Perception: The Role of Distance

Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicting increasing levels of financial damages upon affected communities. The experience of such major flood events has brought about a significant change in attitudes to flood-risk management, with a shift away from built engineering solutions alone towards a more multifaceted approach. Europe's experience with damaging flood episodes provided the impetus for the introduction of the European Floods Directive, requiring the establishment of flood-risk management plans at the river-basin scale. The effectiveness of such plans, focusing on prevention, protection, and preparedness, is dependent on adequate flood awareness and preparedness, and this is related to perception of flood risk. This is an important factor in the design and assessment of flood-risk management. Whilst there is a modern body of literature exploring flood perception issues, there have been few examples that explore its spatial manifestations. Previous literature has examined perceived and real distance to a hazard source (such as a river, nuclear facility, landfill, or incinerator, etc.), whereas this article advances the literature by including an objectively assessed measure of distance to a perceived flood zone, using a cognitive mapping methodology. The article finds that distance to the perceived flood zone (perceived flood exposure) is a crucial factor in determining flood-risk perception, both the cognitive and affective components. Furthermore, we find an interesting phenomenon of misperception among respondents. The article concludes by discussing the implications for flood-risk management.

Putting Families Into Place: Using Neighborhood-Effects Research and Activity Spaces to Understand Families

Neighborhood is an important context in which individuals and families are embedded. Yet family studies researchers have been relatively slow to incorporate spatial approaches into family science. Although limited theoretical and methodological attention has been devoted to families in neighborhood-effects research, family scholars can contribute greatly to theories about neighborhood effects, and neighborhood-effects research can help move the field of family studies forward. This article reviews the theories, applications, and limitations of research on neighborhood effects and discusses how family studies can benefit from incorporating a spatial perspective from neighborhood-effects research. I then present an innovative methodology-referred to as activity spaces-emerging in neighborhood-effects research, and I discuss how this approach can be used to better understand the complexity and heterogeneity of families. Last, I highlight ways to incorporate space into family studies by "putting families into place."

Diffusion of childbearing within cohabitation

The article analyzes the diffusion of childbearing within cohabitation in Norway, using municipality data over a 24-year period (1988-2011). Research has found substantial spatial heterogeneity in this phenomenon but also substantial spatial correlation, and the prevalence of childbearing within cohabitation has increased significantly over time. We consider several theoretical perspectives and implement a spatial panel model that allows accounting for autocorrelation not only on the dependent variable but also on key explanatory variables, and hence identifies the key determinants of diffusion of childbearing within cohabitation across space and over time. We find only partial support for the second demographic transition as a theory able to explain the diffusion of childbearing within cohabitation. Our results show that at least in the first phase of the diffusion (1988-1997), economic difficulties as measured by increased unemployment among men contributed to the diffusion of childbearing within cohabitation. However, the most important driver for childbearing within cohabitation is expansion in education for women.

Progress in Spatial Demography

BACKGROUND

Demography is an inherently spatial science, yet the application of spatial data and methods to demographic research has tended to lag that of other disciplines. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in adding a spatial perspective to demography. This sharp rise in interest has been driven in part by rapid advances in geospatial data, new technologies, and methods of analysis.

OBJECTIVES

We offer a brief introduction to four of the advanced spatial analytic methods: spatial econometrics, geographically weighted regression, multilevel modeling, and spatial pattern analysis. We look at both the methods used and the insights that can be gained by applying a spatial perspective to demographic processes and outcomes. To help illustrate these substantive insights, we introduce six papers that are included in a Special Collection on Spatial Demography. We close with some predictions for the future, as we anticipate that spatial thinking and the use of geospatial data, technology, and analytical methods will change how many demographers address important demographic research questions.

CONCLUSION

Many important demographic questions can be studied and framed using spatial approaches. This will become even more evident as changes in the volume, source, and form of available demographic data-much of it geocoded-further alter the data landscape, and ultimately the conceptual models and analytical methods used by demographers. This overview provides a brief introduction to a rapidly changing field.

Space, race, and poverty: Spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities?

BACKGROUND

Multiple and varied benefits have been suggested for increased neighborhood walkability. However, spatial inequalities in neighborhood walkability likely exist and may be attributable, in part, to residential segregation.

OBJECTIVE

Utilizing a spatial demographic perspective, we evaluated potential spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities across census tracts in Boston, MA (US).

METHODS

The independent variables included minority racial/ethnic population percentages and percent of families in poverty. Walkable neighborhood amenities were assessed with a composite measure. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables were first calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. Then, Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were calculated as well as Spearman correlations accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We fit ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial autoregressive models, when appropriate, as a final step.

RESULTS

Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was found in neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. census tract percent Black), but not walkable neighborhood amenities or in the OLS regression residuals. Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were not statistically significant, nor were neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics significantly associated with walkable neighborhood amenities in OLS regression models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that there is residential segregation in Boston and that spatial inequalities do not necessarily show up using a composite measure.

COMMENTS

Future research in other geographic areas (including international contexts) and using different definitions of neighborhoods (including small-area definitions) should evaluate if spatial inequalities are found using composite measures but also should use measures of specific neighborhood amenities.

Toward critical spatial thinking in the social sciences and humanities

The integration of geographically referenced information into the conceptual frameworks and applied uses of the social sciences and humanities has been an ongoing process over the past few centuries. It has gained momentum in recent decades with advances in technologies for computation and visualization and with the arrival of new data sources. This article begins with an overview of this transition, and argues that the spatial integration of information resources and the cross-disciplinary sharing of analysis and representation methodologies are important forces for the integration of scientific and artistic expression, and that they draw on core concepts in spatial (and spatio-temporal) thinking. We do not suggest that this is akin to prior concepts of unified knowledge systems, but we do maintain that the boundaries to knowledge transfer are disintegrating and that our abilities in problem solving for purposes of artistic expression and scientific development are enhanced through spatial perspectives. Moreover, approaches to education at all levels must recognize the need to impart proficiency in the critical and efficient application of these fundamental spatial concepts, if students and researchers are to make use of expanding access to a broadening range of spatialized information and data processing technologies.