The role of climatic changes and financial development to the ASEAN agricultural output: a novel long-run evidence for sustainable production

Examining the impact of climate change on cereal production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL modelling approach

Agriculture sector is major sufferer of climate change both at a global level as well as at India level. Cereals account for about 92 % of India's total food grain output and climate change has a significant influence on the production of cereals. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term and short-term effects of climatic and non-climatic variables, specifically temperature, precipitation, cereal area, total cropped area, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption, on cereal production in India. The study included annual time series data that covered the period from 1960 to 2018, covering a period of 58 years. Various econometric techniques were employed to examine these relationships. The validity of a long-term and short-term relationship among the relevant variables included in the study was validated by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and the Johansen cointegration test. The ARDL model's estimation outcomes reveals that input factors such as cereal area became a key factor in rising cereal production, as evidenced by its positive coefficient. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and precipitation had positive effects on production in the long run whereas total cropped area and minimum temperature has little influence over the results of production both in short run as well as long run. Furthermore, the long-term findings were also supported using econometric tools like Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS). These methods confirmed that variations in cereal production in India were significantly influenced by both climatic factors and agricultural inputs and factors. The study emphasizes the urgency for policymakers to prioritize proactive measures aimed at reducing the adverse impacts of climate change on cereal production in India. This necessitates a comprehensive strategy integrating sustainable practices, technological innovations, and robust policy frameworks to ensure resilient agricultural sectors and sustainable food production.

Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria

The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.

Can agricultural trade improve total factor productivity? Empirical evidence from G20 countries

Improving agricultural total factor productivity is essential to achieving the high-quality and sustainable development of agriculture. As major global agricultural producers, the G20 countries play an important role in agricultural product trade and development. As such, it is well-positioned to play a positive role in improving agricultural total factor productivity. This paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in G20 countries from 2010 to 2019, and analyzes the impact of agricultural trade on TFP using the two-way fixed effects model. It finds that (1) the main source of agricultural TFP growth in G20 countries is technical progress, while the effect of technical efficiency on agricultural TFP is not obvious. (2) Agricultural trade can significantly improve agricultural TFP growth in G20 countries, and the effect is more obvious in developed countries. From the perspective of trade flow, the positive effect of export trade on agricultural TFP is stronger. (3) The institutional environment strengthens the improvement effect of agricultural trade on agricultural TFP. Thus, this study not only provides valuable insight into the relationship between agricultural trade and agricultural productivity, but also offers a strong argument in favor of the formulation of relevant policies to improve agricultural productivity and promote a more sustainable agricultural sector.