Analysis and control of agreement and disagreement opinion cascades

Opinion cascade under perception bias in social networks

Opinion cascades, initiated by active opinions, offer a valuable avenue for exploring the dynamics of consensus and disagreement formation. Nevertheless, the impact of biased perceptions on opinion cascade, arising from the balance between global information and locally accessible information within network neighborhoods, whether intentionally or unintentionally, has received limited attention. In this study, we introduce a threshold model to simulate the opinion cascade process within social networks. Our findings reveal that consensus emerges only when the collective stubbornness of the population falls below a critical threshold. Additionally, as stubbornness decreases, we observe a higher prevalence of first-order and second-order phase transitions between consensus and disagreement. The emergence of disagreement can be attributed to the formation of echo chambers, which are tightly knit communities where agents' biased perceptions of active opinions are lower than their stubbornness, thus hindering the erosion of active opinions. This research establishes a valuable framework for investigating the relationship between perception bias and opinion formation, providing insights into addressing disagreement in the presence of biased information.

The nonlinear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization

Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.